农产品早报 2025-12-31 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 3、加拿大统计局的报告显示，11 月份油菜籽压榨量为 102 万吨，与去年 11 月份基本持平。11 月份农 户的油菜籽交付量为 162 万吨，比去年同期增长 11.1%。 周二国内油脂震荡，马棕高频出口数据环比转好，印尼计划对非法种植园罚款亦有所利好，不过马棕高 频产量同比较高、出口同比偏低压制行情，国内棕榈油库存也较高。菜油近月减仓回落。广州 24 度棕 榈油基差 05-40（0）元/吨，江苏一级豆油基差 05+500（0）元/吨，华东菜油基差 05+700（0）元/吨。 【策略观点】 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 蛋白粕 【行情资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡收跌，巴西大豆存丰产预期，阿 ...

陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2025-12-31 黑色建材组 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3134 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.127%）。当日注册仓单 58056 吨, 环比增加 2440 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.0806 万手，环比增加 30014 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 128.3319 万手，环比增加 7022 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. After the New Year's Day, it is expected that the allocation funds for the new year will gradually enter the market. The medium - and long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile in the context of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. It is suitable for quick - in and quick - out operations in the absence of a trend - following market [6]. - For precious metals, they are currently in an accelerated upward phase. There may be a short - term significant correction in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the upward cycle. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, copper, aluminum prices have certain supports, while zinc, lead industries have weak fundamentals, and nickel, tin prices are expected to be volatile. For new energy - related metals, lithium carbonate and alumina are recommended to be observed, and stainless steel can be considered to go long on dips [9][11][13][15][16][17][19][22][23]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and iron ore prices are likely to operate within an oscillation range [28][30]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to be observed, oil prices should be traded in a range - bound manner, and for other chemicals, different strategies such as waiting and seeing, going long on dips, or going short on rallies are recommended according to different fundamentals [44][49][52]. - In the agricultural products sector, for livestock products, short - term long positions can be considered for pigs, and short positions can be considered for eggs after rallies. For grains and oils, different strategies are recommended according to different production and demand situations [74][75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: Policies such as housing sales VAT, new energy vehicle subsidies, consumer electronics subsidies, and AI education policies have been introduced [2]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The central rural work conference was held, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 2532 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term bond market is expected to remain volatile [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year [7]. - **Strategy View**: There may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metal Category Copper - **Market News**: LME copper prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The domestic spot discount narrowed [9]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is tight, and the price support is strong, but beware of price fluctuations during the New Year's Day [10]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [11]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is weak, but the price support is strong due to low inventory and strong copper prices [12]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals are weak, and there may be a price impact after the long - position exit [14]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the price is supported by low inventory and reduced supply at the regenerative end [15]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose significantly, and the cost was stable [16]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure is large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell, the supply was stable at a high level, and the demand was in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell, and the futures price rose [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or try to buy options with a light position [19]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to shrink, but actual production cuts are needed. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The policy is favorable, and it is recommended to go long on dips [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell, and the inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: Rebar prices rose slightly, and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [29]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell slightly, and the inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The market is expected to rise further, and the upside space is seen at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [33]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [34]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market rebound is limited [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose [35]. - **Strategy View**: The market is led by the black sector, and attention should be paid to cost and supply factors [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances in the northwest [40]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose, and the inventory decreased [41]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile under regulatory influence, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [42]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices oscillated, and the tire start - up rate was slightly worse [44][46]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [48]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, and the inventory increased [49]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see and test the OPEC's export price - support willingness [50]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices rose, and the inventory decreased [51]. - **Strategy View**: The fundamentals have certain pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices rose, and the inventory decreased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose [56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [57]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased slightly [58]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and the inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand need to be improved through production cuts, and the valuation is expected to be compressed [62]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [64][65]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose, and the inventory decreased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk and mid - term long opportunities [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose, and the inventory decreased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to bottom out next year [72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices rose slightly, and the supply tightened [74]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot is strong, and it is recommended to go short after the near - month rally [74]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable, and the supply was sufficient [75]. - **Strategy View**: The near - month is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after the rally [76]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and the oil - mill start - up rate was high [77]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost has a bottom, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil production and export data fluctuated, and domestic oil prices oscillated [79]. - **Strategy View**: Observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [80]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices oscillated, and the import volume decreased [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [84]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices rebounded, and the planting area may be reduced [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [86].

金属期权 2025-12-31 金属期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 理 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ...

农产品期权 2025-12-31 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals are currently in an accelerated upward phase. From now until Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman in May next year, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction". However, this does not signal the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver. The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell's departure. Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the context of significant price fluctuations and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.04% to 986.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.36% to 18792.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4346.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 74.83 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.14%, and the US dollar index at 98.23 [2]. - Trump mentioned that he is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell and believes Powell should resign. The candidate for the new Fed Chairman will be announced in January [2]. 3.2 Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. The Fed under Powell cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet in the December meeting, and the dot - plot shows that current Fed officials only expect one 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut next year. However, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are more focused on the selection of the new Fed Chairman. At the end of the year, the market expectations that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, will be nominated as the new Fed Chairman have gradually fermented, and both have stated that they will support the interest - rate cut policy desired by Trump. Trump himself has also stated that "those who oppose him will not get the position of Fed Chairman". The Fed is likely to conduct relatively aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Given the current situation, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the face of significant price fluctuations of precious metals and avoid opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3.4 Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data from December 29 - 30, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and precipitation funds of various gold and silver contracts in different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [6].

专题报告 2025-12-31 生猪：静待利好兑现 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 低价刺激消费、春节偏晚引发需求后置以及大猪结构性偏紧共同促成了猪价此轮预期外的反 弹，短期猪价走强的逻辑依旧较硬，但随着时间推移，结构性矛盾有望获逐步解决，价格大概 率重回总量过剩的逻辑，中期而言支撑当前猪价走强的逻辑面临坍塌的风险。操作上宜关注偏 近淡季合约的上方压力，反弹抛空为主；长期而言，产能下降将在下半年猪价上逐步体现，留 意远月合约下方支撑。 农产品研究 | 生猪 生猪：静待利好兑现 冬至后现货意外走强 以冬至为界，传统腌腊多发生在 12 月中旬至冬至以前，节前消费场景较为集中，同时供应也 集中兑现于此阶段，供需对决下价格或弱稳运行，或加速下行。冬至后供应下降（以屠宰量明 显下滑为标志），尽管需求端小幅减量，但价格仍以温和反弹为主；进入 1 月以后因春节前热 鲜消费尚未启动，供强需弱进一步加剧，价格通常缓慢走弱，直到春节前最后一波消费到来后 猪价翘尾。与往年相比，今年冬至前猪价表现异常坚挺，冬至后更是大幅反弹 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - The report provides option strategies and suggestions for selected varieties in each sector, covering underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - It is recommended to construct option - combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy and chemical futures are presented, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 437, down 2 with a decline rate of - 0.36%, trading volume of 6.61 million lots (down 0.71 million lots), and open interest of 3.04 million lots (down 0.18 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.56 (down 0.23), and the open interest PCR is 0.66 (down 0.02) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum call and put option open interests. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 435 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.515%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.23% (up 1.59%) [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The US Department of Energy delayed data release due to the Christmas holiday. Military interceptions in Venezuela and production changes in Kazakhstan and the Middle East affected the market. The price showed a weak trend [7]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 435 [7]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **LPG**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply had no significant increase, and chemical demand supported the price. The price showed a volatile and downward trend [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a weak trend with limited rebound [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2100 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a continuous weak trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.3 Olefin - Related Options - **PVC**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased overall, and the price showed a weak rebound after a continuous decline [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weak trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was at a medium level, and the price showed a warming - up trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall trend. The pressure level was 17000, and the support level was 14000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed analysis and strategy recommendations in the above - mentioned format were found. 3.5.5 Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Polyester load decreased, and PTA inventory decreased. The price showed a strong short - term rebound [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low level, the open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong market. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bull - spread call option strategy; construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali - Related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate increased, and the price showed a weak and stable trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2040 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased, and the price showed a low - level volatile trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production decreased, and the price showed a short - term weak trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal. As the OPEC supply has not yet increased significantly, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market will enter a short - term consolidation. The inventory in ports will further decline due to reverse flow and trans - shipment. However, the import volume will remain high, and the olefin plants in ports have maintenance plans, so the port pressure still exists. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure, with the price expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have boosted short - term demand, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are pessimistic because of weak demand. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [9][10]. - The PVC market has low valuation pressure in the short term, but the supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and there is no expected anti - dumping tax, there is still off - season pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. - The PTA supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. - The ethylene glycol industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 0.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.11% increase, at 436.10 yuan/barrel. The US EIA weekly data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 424.82 million barrels, a 0.10% increase; the SPR increased by 0.80 million barrels to 412.97 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 2.86 million barrels to 228.49 million barrels, a 1.27% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 22.99 million barrels, a 3.85% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 44.89 million barrels, a 3.02% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 58 yuan/ton, at 2219 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 26 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory will decline, but there is still pressure. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by - 20 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 8 yuan/ton, at 1743 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand balance is improving. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bullish view of natural rubber RU is based on limited production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China. The bearish view is due to uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and the postponed EUDR. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than last week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than last week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 tons, a 2.5% increase [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 257 (+75) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 133 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.2%, a 0.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 78.5%, a 0.8% increase; the ethylene method was 74.3%, a 2.3% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.2), and the social inventory was 106 tons (+0.4) [11][13]. - **Strategy**: The valuation pressure is low in the short term, but the supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 5487 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 177 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan reduction. The spot price of styrene was 6850 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6781 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan increase; the basis was 69 yuan/ton, a 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.93 tons, a 0.46 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.60%, a 1.67% decrease; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, a 3.80% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, a 1.96% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a 0.47% increase [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6461 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6365 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 96 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a 0.05% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 45.86 tons, a 2.92 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 3.25 tons, a 0.32 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a 0.45% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan reduction [19]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a 0.32% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 53.33 tons, a 0.45 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 18.72 tons, a 1.11 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.87 tons, a 0.12 - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 140 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan reduction [21]. - **Strategy**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 286 yuan, at 7270 yuan; the PX CFR decreased by 28 dollars, at 891 dollars; the basis was - 47 yuan (+56), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 26 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as shutdown and restart. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China increased. The inventory at the end of October increased [24]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 158 yuan, at 5122 yuan; the East China spot price decreased by 110 yuan, at 5065 yuan; the basis was - 63 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 yuan (- 20). The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some plants had operations such as restart and production reduction. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The social inventory on December 26 decreased. The spot processing fee and the disk processing fee increased [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 29 yuan, at 3817 yuan; the East China spot price increased by 21 yuan, at 3687 yuan; the basis was - 136 yuan (+16), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 71 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as load reduction and restart. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import forecast was 11.8 tons, and the port inventory increased by 1.4 tons. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of ethylene was stable while the price of coal decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy for sellers can be constructed as they tend to move upwards; for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable; for precious metals with a rebound, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper contract CU2602 is 96,060, with a decrease of 4,400 and a decline rate of 4.38% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.45, and the open interest PCR is 0.78 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets of various metal options are given. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 110,000, and the support point is 92,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different metal options are presented. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 31.29% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, strategies such as a short - volatility seller option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Silver**: A neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. - **Black Series** - **Rebar**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, a short - volatility strategy is recommended; for silicon iron, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [15].