Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The hot - rolled coil market is currently in a stage where macro - sentiment and real supply - demand are intertwined. The short - term fundamentals are weak, with sluggish demand improvement and high pig iron production. However, the low inventory and uncertainties in the raw material end provide conditions for the price to repeatedly rally. During the policy window period, prices are more driven by sentiment and expectations, with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in terminal demand and the impact of events such as production restrictions and safety production on supply. If there is resonance between the news and demand, there is room for the market to expand upwards; otherwise, the risk of high - level pressure cannot be ignored [1][14]. 3. Section Summaries Macro Aspects After multiple rounds of news - driven movements, the steel market has entered a relatively calm stage. The "anti - involution" policy has been partially reflected in the price, and some steel mills have received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions from August 16 to early September, as well as the regional production restriction expectations due to the September 3 parade, which have all affected the price. After the Politburo meeting, the policy is in a "window period", and the market has returned to focusing on fundamentals [3]. Fundamental Aspects - **Static Fundamentals**: The overall demand for finished products is weak. Downstream industries like automotive and home appliances have insufficient restocking before the peak season, and there is no significant change in the real - estate policy. With high pig iron production and good steel mill profits, the supply is still actively released, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. Some projects only provide phased and structural support without changing the long - term demand pattern. However, the demand in engineering machinery and shipbuilding has some resilience [4]. - **Price Drivers**: The resonance between the recent price fluctuations and the spot fundamentals is decreasing. Short - term price drivers come more from the game between macro - expectations and emotions rather than just supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is short - term bearish pressure from the fundamental side, such as weak terminal demand and high pig iron production, the impact of raw material factors cannot be ignored. Uncertainties in supply make the price more volatile [13]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the hot - rolled coil market is in a pattern where fundamental pressure and emotional support coexist. The weak real supply - demand restricts price increases, while low inventory, good domestic economic performance, and overseas easing expectations provide support. If there are favorable policies, projects, or production restrictions, or if the overseas interest - rate environment becomes more relaxed with marginal demand improvement, the cost - effectiveness of long - positions will increase; otherwise, the price may fall under high - level pressure [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

1. Investment Rating of the Report No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, confirming the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market [10][11]. - The A - share market has remained resilient recently. After continuous index increases, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify, but the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi magazine; the central bank released the Q2 2025 China Monetary Policy Report; the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges monitored abnormal stocks; southbound funds had a record - high net purchase of HK$35.876 billion [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In July, industrial added - value grew 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased 1.6%, and retail sales rose 3.7%. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, and non - manufacturing PMI to 50.1%. M1 and M2 growth rates increased. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, with government bonds and bill financing driving growth, but overall performance was below expectations. Exports rose 7.2% and imports 4.1% [10]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10 - year Treasury and credit bond interest rates continued to decline, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity was relatively loose [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as the valuation is moderately low and IM has long - term discounts. Hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle has started, and high - dividend assets may benefit [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 3.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index at 11634.67, up 5.68%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14]. - **Futures Market**: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed price increases and different levels of trading volume [15]. 3.3. Economy and Corporate Earnings - **Economy**: Q2 2025 GDP actual growth rate was 5.2%. In July, manufacturing PMI was 49.3%. Consumption growth rate was 3.7% and continued to decline. Exports in US dollars increased 7.2%. Investment growth rate was 1.6%, with manufacturing, real - estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates decreasing [32][35][38]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of non - financial listed companies in the A - share market slightly declined compared to Q4 but was higher than Q3 of last year. Operating net cash flow increased year - on - year, mainly due to inventory reduction [41]. 3.4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rate**: The 10 - year Treasury bond and 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rates showed a downward trend. Liquidity was relatively loose, and the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year bonds was presented in the report [44][49]. - **Credit Environment**: In July 2025, M1 growth rate was 5.6% and M2 was 8.8%. Social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bonds and bill financing, while resident and corporate credit data declined significantly year - on - year [54]. 3.5. Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, new shares of equity - oriented funds were 59.47 million, and the net margin purchase was 4.5691 billion [60][63]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 503.4 million, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [66]. 3.6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.52, the CSI 300 was 13.46, the CSI 500 was 31.57, and the CSI 1000 was 43.79. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.27, the CSI 300 was 1.42, the CSI 500 was 2.13, and the CSI 1000 was 2.43 [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign bauxite ores are expected to support the ore price, but the over - capacity situation of alumina remains difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [12]. - Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [11][25]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively. The warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [11][70][72]. - **Others**: Domestic bauxite production has declined recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain firm. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined due to the rainy season and previous bans, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores. The port inventory will experience phased destocking, and the ore price still has short - term support. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level. The FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open. In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions changed little this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on August 16, the alumina index rose 0.41% to 3195 yuan/ton this week, with open interest increasing by 18,000 lots to 389,000 lots. Affected by news of domestic bauxite in Shanxi and Guinea's bauxite, the price soared at the beginning of the week but then gradually declined due to the over - supply fundamentals. The Shandong spot price was 3205 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 7 yuan/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea's bauxite remained at 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 US dollars/ton. The shipment of Guinea's bauxite has declined recently, which is expected to lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ores, and the port inventory is expected to experience phased destocking. The ore price still has medium - term support [28]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In July 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.75% [32]. - **Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total import in the first six months of 2025 was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68%. Among them, in June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 79.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recently, the shipment volume from Guinea has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline gradually after June due to mining restrictions in the AXIS mining area and the rainy season, but the annual ore supply still remains in surplus. In June 2025, China imported 3.02 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 1.48% and a month - on - month increase of 1.92%. The cumulative import in the first six months of 2025 was 16.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [34][36][38]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In July 2025, China's bauxite inventory increased by 7.98 million tons to 53.46 million tons. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 1.03 million tons, and that in Henan increased by 420,000 tons [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In July 2025, China's alumina production was 7.224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.43%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 51.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. In July 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 93.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22%. This week, the domestic alumina production was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week but still at a high level [43][44][45]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and the profit of alumina factories has improved. According to the spot price of alumina on August 15, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. The profits of using Australian and Guinea's ores in Shandong are 377 yuan/ton and 425 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of using Guinea's ores in Shanxi and Henan are 174 yuan/ton and 227 yuan/ton respectively [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In June 2025, the net export of alumina was 69,700 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 67,500 tons last month to 101,300 tons, and the export volume decreased from 207,800 tons to 171,000 tons. The total net export in the first six months of 2025 was 1.075 million tons. The import window opened slightly in June, and the increase in import volume decreased. It is expected that a small - scale net export will become the norm. As of August 15, the weekly FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 7 US dollars/ton to 367 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 25 yuan/ton, with the import window approaching to open [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In July 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.46% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The cumulative production in the first seven months of 2025 was 35.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.05% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 25.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.193 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate increased by 0.55% to 97.24% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025 (estimated for some months), showing the alumina supply - demand difference, total demand, total supply, net export, export volume, import volume, consumption of alumina by electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month [65]. 6. Inventory - The total social inventory of alumina increased by 55,000 tons to 4.199 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 47,000 tons, 20,000 tons, decreased by 16,000 tons, and increased by 4,000 tons respectively [70]. - The alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 39,600 tons to 65,800 tons this week, and the inventory in delivery warehouses was 88,400 tons, an increase of 290 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts rebounded significantly this week as the supply of spot goods became looser [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern. The downward movement of the futures price is supported by cost, while the upward space is restricted by supply and weakening demand. Price fluctuations are continuously narrowing, and the implied volatility of options has returned to historical lows. Although the current reality is still weak, the enterprise profit is at a low level, so the downward space is limited. If there is further positive news, the price is expected to break out of the trading range. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Price fluctuations gradually narrowed, and the price closed slightly lower throughout the week. The actual agricultural demand weakened, the compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, and the export volume was moderate. The overall performance was average, the basis of the futures market was weak, and the inter - month spread was at a low level in the same period. It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern, and the further downward space is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of effective positive factors for an upward movement [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic enterprise start - up rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.24%, and it was at a medium - to - high level year - on - year. The daily output was 19.12 tons, and it is expected to rise again later [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. Due to the production of autumn fertilizers, the start - up rate is expected to further increase in the short term. The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the fixed - bed production was in the red. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export is progressing moderately, showing a rather dull performance [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - to - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the inventory was at a high level year - on - year due to weakening demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts, including the seasonal chart of the 01 contract basis, the spot market price chart of Shandong urea, the 1 - 5 spread chart of urea, the term structure chart of urea, the position and trading volume charts of the 01 contract and the weighted position and trading volume charts of urea, to show the price, spread, position, and trading volume changes in the futures and spot markets [20][21][23][27]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the cost support will gradually strengthen. The report shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production [30]. - **Inventory** - The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons [12]. - The report also includes inventory change projection charts, such as the end - of - month enterprise inventory projection chart and the port inventory and export volume chart [37][38]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Production Capacity**: It shows the urea production capacity chart and the planned production - start device chart. Multiple enterprises have planned new production capacity from 2024 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Urea Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate has fluctuated and declined. The report lists the start - up rate chart, the planned maintenance and long - shut - down device information of enterprises, and also includes the main production area enterprise advance order and monthly output projection charts [45][46][48][50]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: It shows the monthly consumption chart and the downstream demand proportion chart [53][54]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. The report includes the compound fertilizer start - up rate, production profit, and price ratio charts with urea [56][57]. - **Melamine**: It shows the melamine start - up rate, profit, and export volume charts [61][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the export volume chart of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, the housing start - up and completion chart, and the 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction area chart [69][70][74]. - **Export**: The export profit was relatively high. The report shows the urea export volume, profit, export region, and sea - freight charts, as well as the export volume charts of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers [80][81][87][90]. 3.6. Options - Related - The report presents the position, trading volume, position PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility charts of urea options [94][95][97][99][105]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industrial chain chart, the research framework analysis mind - map chart, and the urea industrial chain characteristic chart. It also provides a seasonal overview of domestic and international crop fertilizer demand [107][108][111][113][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [1][81]. - The "anti - involution" policy has led to price fluctuations in related commodities, but the market is still in a state of emotional disturbance. Eventually, prices will move towards the fundamentals, which will take time [15][95]. - In the future, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, as well as the entire black sector, are likely to face a situation of weakening marginal demand. It is necessary to focus on changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state will introduce relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level. Manganese silicon production profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 298 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 258 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 476 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon production cost increases slightly, with Inner Mongolia at 6098 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6376 yuan/ton. Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week. Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week [14]. - Strategy: Given the current market situation of commodity price fluctuations and emotional disturbances, speculative funds are advised to wait and see, while industrial players can choose the right time for hedging [15]. 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 298 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is - 258 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [25]. - Production cost: Inner Mongolia is 6098 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 6058 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is 6376 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. - Manganese ore imports: In June, manganese ore imports were 268 tons, down 25.95 tons month - on - month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative imports were 1446 tons, up 48.52 tons or 3.47% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 9, 2025, manganese ore port inventory is 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons week - on - week [36]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week, with an accelerating increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is down about 4.34% year - on - year. In July 2025, manganese silicon output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 32.51 tons or 5.39% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. As of this week, cumulative weekly output is down about 2.57% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. Weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.54 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week [14][58]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [69]. - Sample enterprise inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 15.88 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [72]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon steel mill inventory is 14.24 days, down 1.25 days month - on - month, at a historical low [75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the manganese silicon futures price maintained a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.26%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, but the daily K - line is loose, disorderly, and the trend is weakening. Short - term support levels at around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level. Ferrosilicon production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The production cost of the main producing areas is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year [94]. - Strategy: Similar to manganese silicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [95]. 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - Production cost: The main producing areas' production cost is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke small material is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year. In July 2025, ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 0.56 tons or 0.18% year - on - year [116]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year [94]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period [139]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon steel mill inventory is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days month - on - month, at a historical low [142]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the ferrosilicon futures price continued to show a wide - range volatile trend, with a slightly narrowed fluctuation range and a weekly decline of 10 yuan/ton or - 0.17%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, and the daily K - line is loose and disorderly. Short - term support levels at around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [148].

需求承压，情绪降 温 螺纹钢周报 2025/08/16 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需189万吨，前值211万吨，环比-10.4%，同比-3.6%，累计需求6853万吨，同比-3.8%。 螺纹钢本周需求下降明显，除了本身淡季需求偏弱之外，还有一部分受到库存显性化的影响。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯06月进口15.5万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹社会库存415万吨，前值388万吨，环比+6.8%，同比-22.5%，厂库172万吨，前值168万吨，环比+2.4%，同比-6.9%。 合计库存587，前值557，环比+5.5%，同比-18.5%。 螺纹钢库存本周累库速度加快。 ◆ 利润:铁水成本2601元/吨，高炉利润131元/吨，独立电弧炉钢厂平均利润-56元/吨。 ◆ 基差：最低仓单基差-24元/吨，基差率-0.7%。 ◆ 小结：商品市场整体氛围明显降温，成材价格小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - USDA significantly reduced the soybean planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month. In the short term, it is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, given the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the positive impact of EPA policies, and the sole supply of soybeans from Brazil from September to January, it is expected to maintain a stable and slightly upward trend. - The domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, USDA lowered the US soybean planting area by about 2.5 million acres. Farmers switched to corn due to the decline in fertilizer prices. After the yield per unit was increased, the total production decreased by about 1 million tons month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped from 7.06% to 6.66%, and that of global soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased from 29.65% to 29.38%. Trump called on China to buy soybeans, and US soybeans rose due to these two factors. The Brazilian premium quotes remained firm as there was no actual soybean trade between China and the US, and the soybean import cost increased significantly this week. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a low level, and Brazilian soybean quotes are supported by China's vessel bookings and Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes later, the rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Overall, the overseas soybean market is in a state of low valuation, support, and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a slightly stronger and stable state due to a single supply source. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot prices mainly followed the futures prices higher. The increase in soybean import costs drove the soybean meal futures to strengthen. This week, domestic trading was average, and提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.35 days, slightly higher than the same period last year and down 0.02 days month - on - month. As of August 12, institutional statistics showed that vessel bookings were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.17 million tons in August, 8.31 million tons in September, and 4.23 million tons in October. The current vessel - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. In the future, attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations and Brazilian premium information [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to be volatile. Given the bullish and bearish factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. No information on the arbitrage strategy was provided [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: Included charts of the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong to show the price trends [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Included charts of the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract to show the basis trends [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Included charts of various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc., to show the spread trends [22][23]. - **Fund Positioning**: Included charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds to show the fund positioning trends [25][27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included charts of the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate to show the growth situation of US soybeans [30][31]. - **Weather Conditions**: Mentioned that La Nina may occur from October 2025 to January, and included charts related to El Nino outlook, La Nina probability, and the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [33][36][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Included charts of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year to show the export situation of US soybeans [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Included charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China to show China's oilseed import situation [53][54]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Included charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China to show the crushing situation of Chinese oil mills [55][56]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China to show the oilseed inventory situation [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills to show the protein meal inventory situation [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Included charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast to show the protein meal crushing profit situation [64][65]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Included charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal to show the demand situation of soybean meal [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: Included charts of the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers to show the breeding profit situation [69][70].

Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/08/16 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished products have slightly corrected. The real estate industry continues to be in a downturn, and the demand outlook remains pessimistic. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows signs of recovery, with production basically unchanged and the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to being dominated by supply and demand. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of terminal demand repair and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Points Summary - **Cost Side**: The profit of hot-rolled coil blast furnaces is 154 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The spot price is about 11 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a moderately high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.0% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the pig iron output has remained above 2.4 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 85,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 5.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 1.5%. The demand has increased significantly, with the demand for medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils performing well, while the demand for cold-rolled coils remains weak [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.5747 million tons, with a slight inventory accumulation but a significantly slower growth rate [10] 2. Trading Strategy Suggestion - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13] 3. Other Sections - The report also includes various charts related to the hot-rolled coil market, such as spot and futures prices, regional price differences, basis, profit, inventory, and cost, as well as data on related products like cold-rolled coils, coated plates, and raw materials such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel [17][56][79]