Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market has different trends and influencing factors in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, policies continue to support the capital market, but short - term shocks may occur. In the commodity market, the "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact on prices, and prices will gradually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades. Different industries have their own supply - demand relationships and price trends, and investors need to make decisions based on specific situations [3][30]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: Three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Business Entity Loans". Cambrian refuted false information, and the US July CPI data was released [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios for different periods. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, but the general direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. Relevant policies on tariff adjustment and interest subsidies were released. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: The prices of domestic and international gold and silver had different trends. The US 7 - year CPI data was released, which is conducive to the Fed's further easing policy. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [6][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Affected by the weakening of the US dollar index, copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the situation in Guangdong improved. - **Price**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 9700 - 9900 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market**: The commodity atmosphere was strong, and aluminum prices rebounded. The inventory in China increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed. The LME inventory increased slightly. - **Price**: The aluminum price has support, but there is also pressure from weak consumption and trade situations. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton, and that for LME aluminum 3M is 2590 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - **Market**: The zinc price fluctuated. Zinc ore is in a loose state, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase. The overseas registered warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Price**: Although the medium - term industry is in an over - supply situation, the short - term price decline is difficult due to the support of low overseas warehouse receipts [12]. Lead - **Market**: The lead price rose slightly. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, the production of primary and secondary lead increased slightly, but the downstream consumption pressure was large. - **Price**: The short - term price decline is difficult due to the possible structural disturbance in the LME market [13]. Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel ore was stable, the sentiment in the nickel - iron market improved, but the consumption of refined nickel was still weak. - **Operation**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the short - term smelting end is still under pressure. The domestic consumption is weak, while the overseas demand is strong. - **Price**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in China and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in LME [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines is stronger than the actual change in fundamentals. - **Operation**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the entry point according to their own operations. The reference operating range for the 2511 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose, driven by the strengthening of bauxite control in Shanxi and the political uncertainty in Guinea. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the import window was closed. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price in some areas changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased. - **Trend**: The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The upward space of the price is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil was increasing. The supply and demand of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. - **Outlook**: If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery and cost support [22][23]. Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore main contract rose. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron - water output decreased slightly, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the demand has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal demand changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The price of glass decreased. The inventory increased, and the demand from the real - estate sector has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term trend depends on policies and demand [26]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash increased. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract declined slightly. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate. The future demand of the black sector may weaken [28][29][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon declined. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and both long and short positions should be cautious [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU rebounded. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - making industry has different operating rates, and the inventory decreased. - **Operation**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [37][38][41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined, while INE crude oil futures rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Fujeirah Port increased. - **Viewpoint**: The current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. If the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [42]. Methanol - **Market**: The 09 contract of methanol rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was high, and the port inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The methanol valuation is high, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - **Market**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was low, and the demand was weak. - **Strategy**: The urea valuation is low, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [44][45]. Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The cost support exists, the supply increased, and the demand decreased. - **Trend**: The BZN may be repaired, and the price may rise with the cost after the port inventory is reduced [46]. PVC - **Market**: The PVC09 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the ethylene cost increased. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the export situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG09 contract rose. The supply and demand changed slightly, and the port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals will weaken in the short - term, and the valuation may decline [49][50]. PTA - **Market**: The PTA09 contract rose. The production and demand increased slightly, and the inventory accumulated. - **Strategy**: The PTA processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX in the peak season [51]. Para - xylene - **Market**: The PX09 contract rose. The load increased, the downstream PTA had short - term maintenance, and the inventory decreased. - **Viewpoint**: The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price rose. The market expects favorable policies, the cost supports, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53][54]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price declined. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price may follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate strongly in July [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The spot and futures prices deviated. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: The national egg price was mostly stable with slight increases in some areas. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was average. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans rose at the low point. The rapeseed meal reversed, and the soybean meal was driven up. The import of Canadian rapeseed was restricted. - **Strategy**: The soybean market is mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to relevant factors [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: The domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the rapeseed oil rose due to the anti - dumping ruling. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61][63]. Sugar - **Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The export of Brazilian sugar increased in the first week of August. - **Outlook**: The international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The Sino - US tariff suspension continued for 90 days. The downstream consumption was average, and the inventory removal slowed down. - **Trend**: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean/meal market has mixed long - and short - term factors. In the short term, the USDA's reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the global protein raw material supply surplus limits the upward momentum of soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, with potential inventory reduction in September. [2][4] - The fundamentals of the oil market are supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory in India and Southeast Asia. However, the upside is restricted by factors like annual - level oil production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. [9] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline in the future, considering factors such as increasing import supply, high spot import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season. [11] - The cotton market has a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level. [14] - The egg market may experience short - term fluctuations, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] - For the hog market, medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities for far - month contracts. [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Tuesday night, US soybeans rose about 3% from the low. The USDA unexpectedly cut the planting area by 2.5 million acres, but the high yield per acre limited the increase. Rapeseed meal reversed from weakness to strength, driving soybean meal up. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed requires a 75% deposit for imports. The domestic soybean meal spot basis was stable on Monday, with good trading and提货, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.37 days. Last week, 2.1775 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and 2.3695 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. [2] - Rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be favorable in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums are stable after rising. US soybeans are undervalued and in a supply - surplus state, with no clear directional driver, and may test previous lows. The import cost of domestic soybeans is rising slightly due to a single supply source. [2] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the USDA's significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, due to the global protein raw material supply surplus, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the spot end may start to reduce inventory in September. It is recommended to buy on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, as well as Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. [4] Oil Important Information - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month. [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out, which may take up to eight months. [6] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812417 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; inventory was 2.113278 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase, lower than Reuters' expectation of 2.25 million tons; imports were 61,039 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; and exports were 1.309059 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase. [6] - On Tuesday, domestic palm oil continued to rise. Foreign capital increased net long positions in the three major oils during the day. Stable demand from importing countries and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided continuous bullish factors. Rapeseed oil rose sharply due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling but fell after some profits were realized at night. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level. [7][8] Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin inventory may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile origin price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high palm oil production in the near term, undetermined RVO rules, and macro and demand adjustments in major importing countries. It should be viewed as a volatile market. [9] Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,608 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories also increased. Brazil exported 109,400 tons of sugar in the first week of August, with an average daily export of 18,200 tons, a 2% increase from the average daily export in August last year. [10] Trading Strategy - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic sugar. The spot import profit outside the quota has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures valuation is high. Considering the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, if the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline. [11] Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 13,980 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased, and the basis was 995 yuan/ton. On August 12, China and the US announced the continuation of suspending reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [13] Trading Strategy - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days has strengthened the domestic commodity market. Fundamentally, the downstream consumption is average, the operating rate is at a low level, and the cotton inventory reduction speed has slowed down. With a bullish market atmosphere but bearish fundamentals, it may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [14] Eggs Important Information - The domestic egg price was mostly stable, with a slight increase in a few areas. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.03 yuan/jin. The supply was mostly sufficient, traders actively sold goods, and the downstream digestion speed was average, with a slight improvement in the digestion of low - priced eggs. Traders were cautious and mostly saw stable prices. [16] Trading Strategy - The continuous increase in newly - hatched chickens and limited culling of laying hens have led to a large supply scale. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures price has a premium. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. However, with the expectation of a spot price rebound and the risk of fluctuations due to high positions at a low level, the futures market may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound. [17] Hogs Important Information - The domestic hog price was mostly stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 13.73 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.31 yuan/kg. Some breeding groups in the north and southwest regions intended to reduce supply and raise prices, which may drive a slight increase in the hog price. In some areas, the supply and demand were weak, restricting each other, and the price may remain stable. [19] Trading Strategy - The continuous weakening of the spot price is in contrast to the futures price. As the trading average weight decreases, the release of current inventory will help relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and the high fat - to - standard price difference provides room for future pressure on hog storage. It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts but not to chase high prices. For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to inter - month reverse spread opportunities due to the difficult - to - falsify expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tight copper raw material supply, and the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - The short - term aluminum price may face the pressure of digesting inventory accumulation after the upward movement, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the expected "anti - involution" policy [3]. - The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall due to the possible structural disturbances in the LME market and the narrowing supply [4]. - The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall under the support of low LME warehouse receipts, although the medium - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged [6]. - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range due to the short - term supply - demand weakness [7]. - The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still has the pressure of correction as the downstream demand improvement is limited [9]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while holders can choose the entry point according to their own operations, and pay attention to industry chain information and market sentiment [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades [14]. - The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may show a strong - side fluctuating trend [16]. - The price upward space of casting aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season and the large difference between futures and spot prices [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.17% to $9840/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79410 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 2.6 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage slightly decreased [1]. - Outlook: The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9700 - 9900 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.45 to 43.25 million tons [3]. - Market: The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the trading improved [3]. - Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may face inventory digestion pressure, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2590 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.21% to 16920 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2004.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [4]. - Market: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the supply narrowed slightly, while the downstream consumption pressure was large [4]. - Outlook: The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.17% to 22637 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2829/ton [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory continued to increase to 11.92 million tons [6]. - Market: The zinc ore was in a loose situation, and the LME market had structural disturbances [6]. - Outlook: The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall [6]. Tin - Price: On August 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 270280 yuan/ton, up 0.67% [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1765 tons [7]. - Market: The supply recovery expectation increased, but the short - term smelting was under raw material pressure, and the domestic consumption was weak while the overseas demand was strong [7]. - Outlook: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME [7]. Nickel - Price: The price of high - nickel iron increased, and the refined nickel spot trading was still weak [9]. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, but the downstream demand improvement was limited [9]. - Outlook: The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index increased by 2.57%, and the LC2511 contract closed up 1.88% [11]. - Market: The bullish sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines was stronger than the fundamental change, and the capital game had high uncertainty [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders choose the entry point according to their own operations, with the LC2511 contract operating in the range of 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index increased by 4.12% to 3334 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - Market: The ore supply was disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remained [14]. - Outlook: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13200 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.82% [16]. - Market: The market was short of goods, and the sentiment of holding back goods increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20140 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.15 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply - demand was weak in the off - season, and the cost support was strong [18]. - Outlook: The price upward space is relatively limited [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the US July CPI data last night is generally favorable for the Fed to implement further easing policies. With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) fell 0.11% to 776.28 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.39% to 9205.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.11% to 3402.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.11% to 37.96 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.05 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal varieties and related indicators are presented in detailed tables, including Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan or - 0.35% from the previous trading day [5]. US CPI Data Analysis - The US July CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%. The core CPI year - on - year value was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.2% [2]. - The lower - than - expected overall CPI in July was due to the decline in oil prices, and the higher - than - expected core CPI was due to the "sudden" increase in used - car inflation compared to the previous month, along with the impact of imported inflation on household prices. In terms of overall CPI, the energy - related CPI year - on - year value decreased by 1.6%, and the month - on - month value decreased by 1.1%, mainly driven by the decline in oil prices. In terms of core inflation, the housing inflation with a high proportion continued to decline slowly, and the used - car price index year - on - year value in July was 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, and the month - on - month value rose from - 0.7% in June to + 0.5%, which was the main contributor to the higher - than - expected core CPI year - on - year value [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [4]. Data Graphs and Analysis - Multiple graphs are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, the price and volume relationship of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and silver, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds, the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [12][22][41].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The continuous inventory build-up and delivery game have led to a short-term decline in the futures price of caustic soda. The caustic soda 2509 contract dropped from a high of 2,757 yuan/ton on July 24th to a minimum of 2,412 yuan/ton, mainly affected by three factors: the return of production capacity after the peak maintenance period, the rebound of liquid chlorine prices, and the increase in warehouse receipt registrations [2][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Entering late August, autumn routine maintenance is expected to cause a phased decline in caustic soda production. Non-aluminum demand is expected to enter the peak season in September, and the downstream operating rate needs to be tracked. For alumina demand, the alkali preparation demand driven by alumina production in the second half of the year is expected to decline, but the daily alkali consumption of new plants still supports demand. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Given the pressure of warehouse receipts and the inventory build-up trend, there is great uncertainty in going long. The approaching peak maintenance period and the expectation of the non-aluminum demand peak season may limit the downside space of the futures price. The operating range of the main caustic soda contract SH509 is 2,350 - 2,600 yuan/ton [3][20]. Group 3: Specific Data - As of August 8th, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 833,000 tons, a new high this year, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 85.1%. The subsidy for liquid chlorine narrowed from -550 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, driving the chlor-alkali profit from negative to positive, reaching a maximum of 352 yuan/ton. On August 1st, 388 new warehouse receipts were registered, causing the SH2509 contract to decline significantly, the futures premium to turn into a discount, and the 9 - 1 spread to fall to a minimum of -133 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Maintenance Schedule - Multiple companies in different regions have maintenance plans from July to October, including full stops, partial stops, and semi - load rotation maintenance. For example, Dongming Petrochemical in East China stopped for about 40 days of maintenance on July 31st, and Yantai Wanhua in East China plans to start semi - load rotation maintenance from mid - August to late September [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a bullish upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing well [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has gradually declined to a relatively low average level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double - selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double - selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short options and long or short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,647.55, up 12.42 points or 0.34%, with a trading volume of 75.13 billion yuan, an increase of 3.78 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,291.43, up 162.75 points or 1.46%, with a trading volume of 107.56 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2,789.90, up 0.72 points or 0.03%, with a trading volume of 9.03 billion yuan, an increase of 750 million yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,122.51, up 17.54 points or 0.43%, with a trading volume of 36.07 billion yuan, an increase of 5.22 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,391.76, up 68.26 points or 1.08%, with a trading volume of 27.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,943.94, up 105.81 points or 1.55%, with a trading volume of 40.12 billion yuan, an increase of 1.96 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 2.912, up 0.002 or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 6.4122 million lots, an increase of 6.3828 million lots, and a trading value of 1.869 billion yuan, an increase of 1.013 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.202, up 0.019 or 0.45%, with a trading volume of 6.8815 million lots, an increase of 6.8392 million lots, and a trading value of 2.892 billion yuan, an increase of 1.12 billion yuan [5]. - Other ETFs also have detailed closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading value changes as shown in the report [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the trading volume was 907,200 lots, an increase of 219,100 lots; the open interest was 1,517,400 lots, an increase of 40,200 lots; the volume PCR was 0.88, a decrease of 0.04; the position PCR was 0.94, a decrease of 0.01 [6]. - Similar data for other option varieties are presented in the report, including changes in trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, and position PCR [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - For the SSE 50 ETF, the pressure point was 2.90, the support point was 2.90, the maximum call option open interest was 107,063, and the maximum put option open interest was 102,825 [8]. - Other option - underlying assets also have corresponding pressure points, support points, and maximum open - interest data [8]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50 ETF option was 12.65%, the weighted implied volatility was 12.72%, a decrease of 0.11%, the annual average was 15.08%, the call option implied volatility was 12.83%, the put option implied volatility was 12.56%, the 20 - day historical volatility was 13.34%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility was - 0.63% [11]. - Similar implied volatility data for other option varieties are provided in the report [11]. 3.6 Strategies and Recommendations - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50 ETF, SSE 50)**: The SSE 50 ETF has been in a high - level consolidation since July. The implied volatility is below the average, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a sideways market. The pressure point is 3.10, and the support point is 2.90. Strategies include constructing a neutral seller strategy and a covered call strategy [14]. - **Large - cap Blue - chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300 ETF, Shenzhen 300 ETF, CSI 300)**: The SSE 300 ETF has shown a high - level shock since June. The implied volatility is below the average, and the position PCR is around 1.00. The pressure point is 4.30, and the support point is 4.10. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a covered call strategy [14]. - **Large - and Medium - cap Stocks Sector (Shenzhen 100 ETF)**: The Shenzhen 100 ETF has been in a wide - range shock and then an upward trend. The implied volatility is around the average, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a slightly bullish sideways market. The pressure point is 2.90, and the support point is 2.50. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a covered call strategy [15]. - **Small - and Medium - cap Stocks Sector (SSE 500 ETF, Shenzhen 500 ETF, CSI 1000)**: The SSE 500 ETF has shown a bullish upward trend. The implied volatility is below the average, and the position PCR of the SSE 500 ETF is above 1.00, indicating a bullish sideways market. The pressure point of the SSE 500 ETF is 6.50, and the support point is 6.25. For the CSI 1000, a bullish call option combination strategy and a short - volatility strategy are recommended [15][16]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF has been in a high - level shock. The implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a bullish sideways market. The pressure point is 2.35, and the support point is 2.30. Strategies include constructing a bullish call option combination strategy and a short - volatility strategy [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each sub - sector based on their market conditions [2][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy is suitable when the market is in a bullish upward trend; for black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is recommended after significant fluctuations; for precious metals, a spot hedging strategy is advised during high - level consolidation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple metal futures are listed, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Information such as the latest price, price change, change rate, trading volume, and open interest is provided [3]. - For example, the latest price of copper (CU2509) is 78,810, with a decrease of 110 and a decline rate of 0.14%; the trading volume is 7.00 million lots, and the open interest is 16.09 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [4]. - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.57 with a change of - 0.13, and the open interest PCR is 0.81 with a change of - 0.04 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of the option underlying are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5]. - The pressure point of copper is 82,000, and the support point is 75,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are presented [6]. - For copper, the at - the - money implied volatility is 9.25%, the weighted implied volatility is 14.42% with a change of 0.01%, and the annual average is 17.95% [6]. 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals show changes in inventories across three major exchanges. The market has been in a high - level consolidation since June. Implied volatility is at the historical average level, and the open interest PCR indicates some pressure above. A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: The inventory of aluminum has changed in the SHFE and LME markets. The market has shown a bullish high - level oscillation. A neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Zinc inventory is at a low level. The zinc market has experienced fluctuations. A neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: The inventory of nickel has changed slightly. The market is in a wide - range oscillation with short - selling pressure. A short - call and short - put option combination strategy with a short - delta position and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: The inventory situation is complex. The market is in a short - term weak oscillation. A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory has decreased, and the market is in a short - term bullish trend. A bullish call spread strategy, a short - call and short - put option combination strategy with a long - delta position, and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The gold market is affected by economic data such as non - farm payrolls and inflation expectations. A neutral short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The social inventory of rebar has increased, and the market is in a small - range oscillation with pressure above. A neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy are recommended [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of iron ore has increased. The market is in a bullish oscillation. A neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: The manganese - silicon market has experienced significant fluctuations. A short - volatility strategy is recommended [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon has increased. The market has shown large fluctuations. A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: The inventory of glass has increased, and the market is in a weak downward trend. A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [15].