1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise and influenced by the adjustment of overseas US stocks, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, and in the medium - to - long - term, the main idea is to buy on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are upcoming; the National Space Administration has established a commercial space department; the World Gold Council expects a 15% - 30% increase in gold prices in 2026; the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on December 5, 2025 [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October 2025, industrial added value grew 4.9% year - on - year, retail sales grew 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased 1.7%. The November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2. M1 and M2 growth rates decreased in October, and the social financing increment was 816.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease. The export in September 2025 decreased year - on - year, and housing prices in all cities declined in October [10]. - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10Y treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this month, the credit spread slightly converged, and liquidity remained loose [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term as its valuation is at a moderately low level and it has a long - term discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3888.60 points, with a turnover of 1613.88 billion yuan and a decline of 1.67%. The Shenzhen Component Index was at 12984.08 points, with a turnover of 2177.93 billion yuan and a decline of 2.95%. Other major indices also showed varying degrees of decline [14]. - **Futures Market**: All major futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed declines in points and varying degrees of decrease in prices [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: The real GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8%. The November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2. In October 2025, consumption growth was 2.9%, export growth was - 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7%. Manufacturing investment grew 2.7%, real - estate investment was - 14.7%, and infrastructure investment was - 0.1% [34][37][40]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the net profit growth rate was 3.89%, both rebounding compared to the semi - annual report [43]. 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed certain trends. Liquidity remained loose, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [46][50]. - **Credit Environment**: In October 2025, M1 growth was 6.2% and M2 growth was 8.2%. The social financing increment was 816.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease due to pre - issued government bonds and reduced household loans [58]. 3.5 Funding - **Fund Inflow**: This week, about 121.56 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the margin trading balance increased by about 100.1 billion yuan, with a new balance of 2466.478 billion yuan [64][67]. - **Fund Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 82.87 billion yuan, and there were 2 IPO approvals [70]. 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.86, the CSI 300 was 14.02, the CSI 500 was 32.35, and the CSI 1000 was 46.48. - **P/B Ratio**: The P/B ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.30, the CSI 300 was 1.46, the CSI 500 was 2.21, and the CSI 1000 was 2.44 [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the valuation of asphalt may decline in the second half of the year. The current operating rate of independent refineries is at a low level with limited downward space. The combination of the return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period is expected to restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation, and the weak oscillation of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - sided price [15]. - In the short term, the weakness of asphalt persists, but the marginal contradiction between supply and demand has eased, so it is recommended to wait and see [16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are fluctuations such as supply - demand increase, cost decrease, and supply - demand decrease at different times [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while independent refineries will remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term. On the demand side, the start - up rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. For the cost factor, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central oscillation range is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: The start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising, and overall imports are strong; demand - side sub - items are weak, and downstream shipments are dull; the inventory shows difficulty in destocking; the crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak oscillation phase [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [19][22][26][30]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Term Structure**: It includes the term structure of asphalt, the price differences between different contracts (such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, 03 - 06), and their historical trends from 2022 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the trends of asphalt capacity utilization, production profit in Shandong, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, import profit from different regions (such as South China - Singapore, East China - South Korea), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) from 2021 to 2025 [54][56][61]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the trends of the fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent ratios from 2021 to 2025 [64]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profit trends of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit trends of petroleum coke from 2021 to 2025 [67][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It includes the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [75]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract from 2021 to 2025 [78]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It presents the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It includes the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [97][100]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative highway construction investment, monthly transportation fiscal expenditure, and their relationship with asphalt demand from 2021 to 2025 [102][109]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It includes the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and their relationship with highway construction investment from 2021 to 2025 [114][117]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds from 2021 to 2025 [120][121]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trends of asphalt trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility from 2021 to 2025 [128][129][131]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It involves exploration and extraction links [135][136]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From a production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into five types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used for road construction. According to its use, it can be divided into three types, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore's visible inventory has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, pressuring zinc smelting profits and leading some high - cost zinc smelters to cut production. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slightly decreased, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased after considering in - transit inventory and factory inventory. Recently, the LME zinc monthly spread has risen again, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased, driving zinc prices to be strong in the short term. However, in the medium term, the weak status quo of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the upward space of zinc prices is expected to be limited [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Industry Data**: Zinc concentrate domestic TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton. Zinc concentrate port inventory is 279,000 physical tons, and factory inventory is 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.96% to 22,885 yuan/ton, and the total SHFE zinc positions decreased by 19,700 lots to 202,000 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 70 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 50 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 40 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 110 yuan/ton [12] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report provides multiple macro - related charts, including the US monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of the US national debt to GDP, the Fed's balance sheet asset and liability structure, dollar liquidity, China and US manufacturing PMIs, and US manufacturing new orders and unfinished orders. However, there is no specific text analysis [15][17][20][21] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 330,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of 5.2%. From January to October, the total zinc ore output was 3.0706 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.0%. In October 2025, the net zinc ore imports were 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ore imports were 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [26][28] - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton [29][30] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5.6863 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net zinc ingot imports were 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ingot imports were 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [34][36] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [40] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative apparent demand was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [42] 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [53] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the overseas refined zinc cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 139,900 tons [56] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton [61] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton [64] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [65] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased again. The net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is bullish in the short term [68]

反弹抛空 鸡蛋月报 2025/12/05 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：11月至今，国内蛋价整体呈冲高后回落走势，月内供应充足，需求端提振有限，供需宽松下市场参与心态谨慎，仅低价时因低温容 易储存而表现惜售，月内亏损持续，淘鸡走量加快，鸡龄进一步下滑；具体看，黑山大码蛋价月跌0.1元至2.8元/斤，月内最低2.7元/斤， 馆陶月跌0.13元至2.6/斤，月内最低2.58元/斤，销区回龙观月跌0.04元至3.12元/斤，东莞月持平于2.83元/斤；展望本月，尽管淘鸡走量 加快，但高峰在产规模偏大，鸡龄下降缓慢，整体供应压力依旧，需求端受下游备货谨慎影响整体表现一般，除局部备货时反弹外，预计整 体重心呈缓慢下行走势为主。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，因季节性因素，11月份补栏环比小幅增加 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 供应端矛盾突出， LL1-5反套行情持续 聚烯烃月报 2025/12/05 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐—11月总结 估值：OPEC+宣布计划在2026年第一季度暂停产量增长，原油价格底部或已出现。 成本端：WTI原油下跌-3.95%，Brent原油下跌-3.76%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇上涨1.07%，乙烯下跌-3.31%，丙烯上涨3.85%，丙 烷上涨5.54%。油价低位反弹，供需双弱背景下成本端影响较大。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.24%，环比上涨0.12%，同比去年上涨1.46%，较5年同期平均下降-11.06%。PP产能利用率77.92%，环比下 降-0.12%，同比去年上涨4.70%，较5年同期平均下降-12.01%，聚烯烃260 ...

乙二醇延续弱基本面走势， PXN强预期下支撑向上 聚酯月报 2025/12/05 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结——PX ◆ 行情回顾：上月价格震荡上涨，截至12月4日，01合约收盘价6870元，月同比上涨90元；PX CFR价格845美元，同比上涨19美元。基差和价差 方面，截至12月4日，折算基差-17元，月同比下降24元；1-3价差-38元，同比上升6元。 ◆ 供应端：月末中国负荷88.2%，同比下降1.6%；亚洲负荷78.6%，同比下降1.6%。国内装置方面，十一月检修量仍旧较少，整体负荷持续维持 高位。后续来看，十二月检修量同样偏少，负荷环比预期持稳。进口方面，11月韩国PX出口中国39万吨，环比下降3.5万吨。 ◆ 需求端：月底PTA负荷73.7%，月环比下降2.7%。十一月检修装置有所增加，整体负荷低于十月。十二月检修量预期仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].

期待需求的利多 橡胶月报 2025/12/05 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 期待需求（政策）利多期间胶价的表现 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 11月28日新闻，EUDR正式推迟。判断为需求利空。 ◆ 泰国橡胶出口10月同比增加明显，（雨季一般出口持平或者小增），超出市场的预期。判断为供应利空。 ◆ 20251205市场有降息降准的预期，利多需求预期。 ◆ 12月中旬泰国主产区有连续比较大的降雨。 ◆ 择机波段短多机会。 ◆ 12月仍然处于冬储等需求偏多的季节，没到供需边际走差的季节。 前期行情影响因素： 确认EUDR推迟1年，需求利空 ◆ 2025年9月23日消息，EUDR生效时间再度推迟。 ◆ 据艾科森环境技术消息，欧盟委员会希望再次推迟欧盟的反森林砍伐法， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, with its price likely to be influenced by the sentiment of funds in other new - energy products. The supply - demand imbalance is not prominent, with both supply and demand being weak. [14] - Polysilicon prices are predicted to fluctuate widely in December, with near - term contracts being relatively strong. The pressure of inventory accumulation before the year is difficult to ease, and there is a high risk of instability in the near - term contracts due to delivery games. [17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industrial Silicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 9000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the production was 36.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.6993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 672,900 tons or 15.39%. The inventory at the end of November was 481,400 tons. [13] - **Polysilicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of N - type re - fed polysilicon was 52.3 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. In November, the production was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07%. The inventory at the end of November was about 281,000 - 282,100 tons. [15][16] - **Organosilicon**: In November, the DMC production was 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58%. [13] - **Silicon - aluminum Alloy**: From January to October, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 15.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. [13] - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 598,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97,000 tons or 1.66%. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 9000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton. [22] - **Polysilicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of N - type re - fed polysilicon was 52.3 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense polysilicon was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month. [25] 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Production**: In November 2025, the production of industrial silicon was 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.6993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 672,900 tons or 15.39%. [30] - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: The report shows the production trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. [32][34] - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the average electricity price in Yunnan increased by 0.13 yuan/kWh month - on - month, and in Sichuan by 0.09 yuan/kWh month - on - month; the silicon stone price remained stable month - on - month. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9766.67 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9720.00 yuan/ton. [43][46] - **Visible Inventory**: At the end of November, the industrial silicon inventory was 481,400 tons, including 263,400 tons in factory inventory, 185,000 tons in market inventory, and 33,000 tons in registered warehouse receipts (with concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts). [49] 3.4 Polysilicon - **Production**: In November, the production of polysilicon was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07%. [54] - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production**: In November, the capacity utilization rate of polysilicon was 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. The expected production in December was 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease. [57] - **Inventory**: At the end of November, the polysilicon inventory was about 281,000 - 282,100 tons, with factory inventory accumulating. [60] - **Cost and Profit**: At the end of November, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits. [63] - **Silicon Wafer**: In November, the production of silicon wafers was 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory at the end of November was 19.5GW, a month - on - month increase. The predicted production in December was 45.7GW, a significant month - on - month decrease. [66][69] - **Cell**: In November, the production of cells was 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. The inventory at the end of November was 7.63GW. The expected production in December was 48.72GW, a significant month - on - month decrease. [74][77] - **Module**: In November, the production of modules was 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The cumulative production from January to November was 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at the end of November was 30.5GW, a month - on - month decrease. The expected production in December was 39.99GW, a decrease compared to November. [82][85] 3.5 Organosilicon - **Production**: In November, the DMC production was 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 tons. The cumulative production from January to November was 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58%. [92] - **Price and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organosilicon was 13,200 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2200 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton. [95] - **Inventory**: At the end of November, the DMC inventory was 44,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. [98] 3.6 Silicon - aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,910 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 190 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,330 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 15.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. At the end of November, the capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5%. [103][106] - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 598,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97,000 tons or 1.66%. [109]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the lead price rose first and then fell. From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of Shanghai lead dropped significantly by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, with the current social inventory only at 21,600 tons, and the deliverable goods were relatively scarce. The lead ore's visible inventory increased, but the primary smelting operating rate declined, while the secondary smelting operating rate continued to rise. The weekly operating rate of downstream battery enterprises increased marginally. Considering the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, it is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest dropped by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,075 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead scrap inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. The lead - acid battery operating rate at the demand end was 73.39% [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Raw Material Supply**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. The domestic lead concentrate output in October was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total lead concentrate production was 1.3953 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ores in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total lead ore production was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total primary lead ingot production was 3.1869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: The lead scrap inventory at the secondary end was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic secondary lead output was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total secondary lead ingot production was 3.2351 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Total Supply and Trade**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery operating rate was 73.39%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.61452 million, the net export weight was 84,600 tons, and the estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles ensured a high replacement demand. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons, and from January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and from January to September, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 1,700 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].