Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - **Base Ratio**: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - **Trading Logic**: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - **Strategy**: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - **Market Outlook**: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - **Price Outlook**: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - **Price Outlook**: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - **Price Outlook**: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - **Price Outlook**: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - **Price Outlook**: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [52] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [53] - **Price Outlook**: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was stable [58] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - **Price Outlook**: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - **Market Quotes**: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - **Price Outlook**: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agricultural products options industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while other sectors such as by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own specific trends like range - bound trading or short - term weakness [2]. - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2509) dropped by 0.63% to 4,126, with a trading volume of 11.89 million lots and a decrease of 1.99 million lots compared to the previous period, and an open interest of 12.87 million lots with a decrease of 0.47 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying asset market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.38, a decrease of 0.16, and the open interest PCR is 0.39, a decrease of 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,300 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: Each option variety has different implied volatility values, changes, and differences compared to historical volatility, which can be used to measure the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.36%, a decrease of 0.72% [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of soybeans. The market of soybean No.1 shows a pattern of small - range consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal shows a certain pattern. The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation with support below followed by a rebound and then a decline. Recommended strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1 [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil market is affected by export and production factors, showing a pattern of long - position high - level consolidation. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **By - product Options** - **Pigs**: The pig market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of small - range consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is affected by factors such as weather and supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The apple market is affected by factors such as production and inventory, showing a pattern of gradual rebound with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market shows a pattern of rebound and then decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a pattern of rebound after a decline with support below. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak pattern. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [14].

Report Title - Financial Options Strategy Morning Report, dated July 31, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a bullish oscillating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing well [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has gradually declined to a relatively low level [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double-selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for index options, it is suitable to construct neutral double-selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short options and long or short futures [2]. Market Data Summaries Financial Market Important Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,615.72, up 6.01 points or 0.17%, with a trading volume of 819.6 billion yuan [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,203.03, down 86.38 points or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 1,024.7 billion yuan [3]. Option - Based ETFs - The Shanghai 50ETF closed at 2.943, up 0.009 or 0.31%, with a trading volume of 826.17 million shares and a turnover of 2.433 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 300ETF closed at 4.232, down 0.003 or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 950.25 million shares and a turnover of 4.024 billion yuan [4]. Option Factors Volume - to - Open Interest PCR - For the Shanghai 50ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.85 (down 0.08), and the open interest PCR was 1.04 (up 0.04) [5]. - For the Shanghai 300ETF option, the volume PCR was 1.02 (up 0.04), and the open interest PCR was 1.10 (up 0.04) [5]. Pressure and Support Points - The pressure point for the Shanghai 50ETF was 3.10, and the support point was 2.90 [7]. - The pressure point for the Shanghai 300ETF was 4.20, and the support point was 4.10 [7]. Implied Volatility - The weighted implied volatility of the Shanghai 50ETF option was 15.55% (down 0.40%) [9]. - The weighted implied volatility of the Shanghai 300ETF option was 15.75% (down 0.63%) [9]. Strategy and Recommendations Financial Stock Sector (Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 50) - Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread strategy, such as B_510050C2508M02900 and S_510050P2508M03000 [12]. - Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral selling strategy, such as SELL_510050P2508M02850 and SELL_510050P2508M03050 [12]. - Spot long covered strategy: Hold the Shanghai 50ETF and sell call options, such as LONG_510050 + SELL_510050C2508M03000 [12]. Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stock Sector (Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, CSI 300) - Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread strategy, such as B_510300C2508M04200 and S_510300C2508M04400 [12]. - Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, such as S_510300P2508M04100 and S_510300C2508M04400 [12]. - Spot long covered strategy: Hold the Shanghai 300ETF and sell call options, such as LONG_510300 + SELL_510300C2508M04000 [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For each segment, specific metal options are analyzed, and corresponding strategies and suggestions are provided based on fundamental and market trend analysis, option factor research [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different strategies are proposed according to the market conditions of each metal, such as constructing short - volatility seller option portfolios for copper and tin, and short - neutral or short - bullish/bearish call + put option combinations for other metals [7][10]. - For precious metals, a short - neutral volatility option seller portfolio is recommended for gold, and for black metals, different strategies like bullish option bull - spread combinations for iron ore and short - volatility strategies for other metals are suggested [12][13]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2509) is 78,700, with a decrease of 370 (- 0.47%), trading volume of 5.59 million lots, and open interest of 17.17 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: This factor is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.51, with a change of - 0.12, and the open interest PCR is 0.72, with a change of - 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For instance, the pressure point of copper is 82,000, and the support point is 75,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes for each metal option. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 10.66%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.99%, with a change of 0.43% [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals and market trends, a short - volatility seller option portfolio is recommended, along with a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: A short - bullish call + put option combination is proposed, and a spot collar strategy is recommended for hedging [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: A short - neutral call + put option combination is suggested, and a spot collar strategy is provided for hedging [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - bearish call + put option combination is recommended, and a spot long - hedging strategy is proposed [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy is recommended, and a spot collar strategy is provided for hedging [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - neutral call + put option combination is suggested, and a spot long - hedging strategy is proposed [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver**: A short - neutral volatility option seller portfolio is recommended for gold, and corresponding strategies are also provided for silver based on market analysis [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: A short - neutral call + put option combination is recommended, and a spot long - covered call strategy is proposed [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A bullish option bull - spread combination is recommended, along with a short - bullish call + put option combination and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish option bull - spread combination and a short - volatility strategy are recommended for manganese silicon, and corresponding strategies are provided for industrial silicon and polysilicon [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility strategy is recommended, and a spot long - collar strategy is proposed [15].

贵金属日报 2025-07-31 贵金属 沪金跌 0.32 %，报 770.68 元/克，沪银跌 1.32 %，报 9090.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.73 %， 报 3328.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 1.55 %，报 37.16 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 99.82 ； 市场展望： 美联储召开 7 月议息会议，联储主席鲍威尔货币政策表态偏鹰派，同时昨夜公布的美国经济数 据具备韧性，对于金银价格形成较强利空因素。 鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信息，他 认为后续的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。鲍威尔认为劳动力市场状 况良好，并表示核心通胀有 30%-40%来自于关税。鲍威尔表明目前美国经济需要适度的限制。 本次议息会议中，监管副主席鲍曼以及理事沃勒投下反对票，认为应当进行降息操作，后续两 人将会就反对意见作出解释。经济数据方面，美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数为 10.4 万人，高于预期 的 7.5 万人以及前值的-2.3 万人。受到一季度抢进口因素消退的影响，美国二季度实际 GD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy is neutral to hawkish, but the US copper tariff falling short of expectations eases the pressure on copper prices. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. It is expected that copper prices will gradually stabilize in the short term [1]. - The boost from Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting to market sentiment is limited. The aluminum price continues to fluctuate. The relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports the aluminum price, but the price rebound will be limited due to the off - season downstream and weak export demand [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and the downstream purchasing is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the spread may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate decision, and there are still structural risks in the overseas market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Due to the strengthened expectation of resuming production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain [9]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty due to capital games. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [11][12]. - The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - Stainless steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, but if terminal demand cannot absorb the increased supply, traders may cut prices to reduce inventory. Attention should be paid to the real recovery of terminal demand [16]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward pressure on prices is expected to be large [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.74% to $9730/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78700 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9680 - 9920 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 9225 to 136850 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic spot copper import was at a loss of about 300 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 980 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage remained low [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose slightly by 0.08% to $2608/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20615 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.6 million to 609000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 51000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.65 to 388500 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 87000 tons [3]. - **Market**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 to 460000 tons, and the spot in the East China market was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.06% to 16892 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S remained flat at $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 61900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 64800 tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was at par. The start - up rate of primary lead decreased slightly, and that of recycled lead increased from a low level [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.11% to 22676 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained flat at $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 15200 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 103700 tons [6]. - **Market**: The import zinc concentrate TC index rose significantly. The concentration of long - positions in the LME zinc market is high, and there are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 267960 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The short - term expected operating range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 7433 tons, and LME inventory increased by 90 to 1945 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but the smelting end is still under raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of high - nickel iron remained stable, and the refined nickel spot trading was fair [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text. - **Market**: The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and it is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat at 71832 yuan. The LC2509 contract closed at 70600 yuan, down 0.34%. The expected operating range for the LC2509 contract is 68600 - 73200 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Inventory**: No relevant inventory data provided. - **Market**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some lithium carbonate contracts. There is high uncertainty due to capital games [11]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.73% to 3314 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.24 to 0.66 million tons, still at a historical low [14]. - **Market**: The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased slightly [16]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 62 to 103234 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% to 1118600 tons [16]. - **Market**: Steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, and the supply in August is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.25% to 20070 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly to 31000 tons [18]. - **Market**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the price is under upward pressure [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will limit the upside potential of crude oil. A short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips, and left-side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when oil prices plunge [2]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.05, or 1.52%, to $70.3/barrel; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.71, or 0.98%, to $73.47/barrel; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.30 yuan, or 0.24%, to 529.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 426.69 million barrels, a 1.84% increase; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.74 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 228.41 million barrels, a 1.18% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 3.64 million barrels to 113.54 million barrels, a 3.31% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.20 million barrels to 20.04 million barrels, a 0.97% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 2.11 million barrels to 43.39 million barrels, a 4.63% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2419 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of -9 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream开工率 has bottomed out and rebounded, and enterprise profits are still good. Supply pressure is expected to increase marginally. MTO profits have declined again, port开工率 remains stable, and traditional demand is still in the off-season. The market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and methanol may face downward pressure. Port inventories have increased, year-on-year inventories are low, and overall inventory levels have decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 30, the 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1742 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工率 continues to decline, and enterprise profits have rebounded but are still at a relatively low level. As the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improves, the cost support for urea gradually strengthens. The开工率 of compound fertilizers has rebounded slowly, demand is weak, and finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and port inventories continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have oscillated downward after a significant correction. Supply concerns have eased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather conditions in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, and the current situation of rubber plantations may lead to a reduction in rubber production. Rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macroeconomic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the reduction in supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider a long-short spread operation on RU2601 and RU2509 [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 5060 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was -99 (+73) yuan/ton, and the 9-1 spread was -137 (-13) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The overall开工率 of PVC is 76.8%, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period. The demand side is weak, and downstream开工率 is at a five-year low and still in the off-season. Exports are affected by India's anti-dumping policy. The cost support has weakened. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices have both risen, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term macroeconomic positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with significant room for upward repair. The开工率 of pure benzene has declined slightly, but supply remains ample. The开工率 of styrene has continued to increase. Port inventories have increased significantly, and demand is in the seasonal off-season. It is expected that the BZN spread will repair in the short term, and styrene prices may follow the cost side and oscillate upward after port inventories are reduced [13][14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen [16]. - **Fundamentals**: After the successful convening of the Politburo meeting, short-term positive expectations have been realized, and cost support still exists. Spot prices have risen, and PE valuations have limited downward space. Trader inventories are oscillating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. Demand is in the seasonal off-season, and the overall开工率 is oscillating downward. The short-term contradiction has shifted from cost-driven downward movement to high maintenance boosting inventory reduction. There is a large capacity release pressure in August, and polyethylene prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profits of Shandong refineries have stopped falling and rebounded, and the开工率 is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off-season, and downstream开工率 is oscillating downward. There is only 450,000 tons of planned capacity to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that polypropylene prices will follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July [17]. PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 42 yuan to 6984 yuan, and PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 866 dollars. The basis was 147 yuan (+25), and the 9-1 spread was 106 yuan (-2) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: PX开工率 remains high, but the PTA maintenance season has also ended, and the开工率 of the downstream is relatively high. Inventory levels are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is still small in the short term. New PTA plants are planned to be put into operation soon, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. Valuations are currently at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [19][21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 30 yuan to 4860 yuan. The basis was -10 yuan (-5), and the 9-1 spread was 2 yuan (-4) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA开工率 is 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. Downstream开工率 has increased, and terminal开工率 has also recovered. Inventories have increased slightly. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [22]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 17 yuan to 4527 yuan. The basis was 66 yuan (+4), and the 9-1 spread was -28 yuan (-3) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has increased, and downstream开工率 has also increased. Port inventories have decreased. Valuations are relatively high compared to the same period in previous years. The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Saudi Arabian plants have all restarted, and the expected arrival volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different energy - chemical option varieties have different performance in terms of latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 528, with a price increase of 13 and a change rate of 2.49% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of option underlying asset market conditions and turning points. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil is 0.56, with a change of 0.07 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option underlying assets can be observed from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 30.8, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.57 with a change of - 0.35 [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, UAE port transfers are rising, but Russian shipments are tight. The market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: Fundamentally, the supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is short - term bearish. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, port and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market is weak with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, polyester load is rising. The market is weakly bullish with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, etc.) - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, PE and PP inventories have different trends. The market is weakly bearish with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, social inventories are decreasing. The market is in a low - level consolidation. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, etc.) - **PTA**: Fundamentally, the overall social inventory is increasing. The market is weakly bearish with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, factory inventories are increasing. The market is in a high - level shock with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, inventories are accumulating at a high level. The market is in a significant decline with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - Fundamentally, port inventories are increasing slightly, and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market is in a shock under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [15].

Group 1: Overall Market Summary - Agricultural product options strategy morning report date is July 30, 2025 [1] - Oilseeds and oils agricultural products are in a strong - side oscillatory trend, while oils, agricultural by - products maintain an oscillatory market, soft commodity sugar has a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2] - The strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product option underlying futures contracts are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [3] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR, volume change, open interest PCR, and open interest change of various agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and the maximum open interests of call and put options of various agricultural product options are given, which are determined from the exercise prices of the maximum open interests of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV20, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various agricultural product options are presented [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (Soybean 1 and Soybean 2)**: USDA July report adjusts the supply - demand balance of US soybeans in the 25/26 season, soybean 1 shows an oversold rebound pattern. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal in different months is provided, and the market shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil's export and production data affect the market, showing a bullish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bullish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: The peanut market has a weak consolidation pattern under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: The pig price shows a weak upward trend under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Eggs**: The egg price is in a weak consolidation pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a bearish short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Apples**: The apple market shows a pattern of weak bearishness gradually rebounding. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Red Dates**: The red date market has a pattern of rebound and then decline. Option strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows an oversold rebound pattern. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a pattern of low - level rebound and then slight oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a bullish spread strategy of call options, a bullish short call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [14] Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market shows a weak bearish pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish short call + put option combination strategy [14] Group 7: Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are presented, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest - PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, etc., for different agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [16][33][50]