万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 关注宏观窗口兑现节点 铁矿石月报 从业资格号：F03133967 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 月度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 月度要点小结 ◆ 供应：测算11月全球铁矿石发运周均值3296.75万吨，环比+12.31万吨；11月，19港口径澳洲发往中国周均值1575.80万吨，较上月变化- 13.84万吨。巴西发运量周均值824.03万吨，较上月变化-24.57万吨。45港到港量周均值2631.63万吨，较上月环比-52.66万吨。 ◆ 需求：测算11月国内日均铁水产量235.30万吨，较上月变化-4.12万吨。 ◆ 库存：11月末，全国45个港口进口铁矿库存15210.12万吨，较上月末变化+667.64万吨；45港铁矿石日均疏港量周均值327.10万吨，较上月 变化+8.21万吨。钢厂进口铁矿石日耗周均值290.61万吨，较上月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the urea market continued to oscillate upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in market reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand. The high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline, and the overall valuation of urea remained relatively low. The improvement in supply and demand drove the price up, and there was still support at the bottom [12]. - The supply in November was at a high level, with domestic urea production reaching 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally. The demand showed marginal improvement, with domestic compound fertilizer production in November reaching 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level. The basis and the inter - month spread increased as the high - level enterprise inventory declined. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - With the increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation, the overall market demand improved. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened. In reality, the increase in reserve demand and compound fertilizer operation drove a short - term improvement in demand, and enterprise pre - sales increased significantly. Although exports were gradually gathering at ports, the progress was relatively slow, and the port inventory increased slightly. In terms of supply, the operation of gas - made plants continued to decline seasonally, while that of coal - made plants changed little. In the future, the overall supply was expected to decline seasonally. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand led to a continuous decline in enterprise inventory, and the overall supply - demand situation of urea improved. There was support from export policies and costs at the bottom, and the downward space was limited. It was expected to build a bottom through oscillation under low valuation. In the future, demand should mainly focus on export and off - season storage demand, and the supply side should focus on winter gas - fired plant shutdowns and cost support. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to consider long - position allocation at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the market mainly oscillated upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand, and the high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In November, domestic urea production was 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally [12]. - **Demand**: Domestic compound fertilizer production in November was 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Profit**: Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - **Market Logic**: The increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation led to an improvement in overall market demand. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position allocation opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The report provides price data for futures contracts (such as 09, 01, 05 contracts), domestic spot markets in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Hebei, etc.), downstream products (compound fertilizer, melamine), and international prices. It also shows changes in basis, inter - month spreads, and export profits [13]. - **Graphical Analysis**: Includes graphs of 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure, etc., to help analyze the periodic and spot market conditions [23][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The loss of fixed - bed production has narrowed, and graphs of fixed - bed profit, water - coal slurry profit, and gas - head production profit are provided [32]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is at a high level and is in the process of de - stocking. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Graphs of enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory change deduction are provided [38][43][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Urea Operation**: The operation of gas - made plants will start to decline seasonally. Graphs of urea operation, gas - head operation, and device maintenance loss are provided [48][49]. - **Device Maintenance**: Lists information on urea maintenance devices (including enterprise names, production capacities, raw materials, models, shutdown dates, start - up dates, production loss, and reasons for shutdown) and planned maintenance devices [50][51]. - **Enterprise Pre - sales and Production Deduction**: Graphs of main - producing area enterprise pre - sales orders and monthly production deduction are provided [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Deduction**: Graphs of monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion are provided [56]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation of compound fertilizer shows a seasonal upward trend. Graphs of compound fertilizer operation rate, production profit, and nitrogen source price ratio are provided [58][59][62]. - **Melamine**: Graphs of melamine operation, profit, and export volume are provided [64][65][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Graphs of plywood export volume, housing start - up and completion, and 5 - day average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities are provided [73][77]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level. Graphs of urea export volume, export profit, and export volume of other nitrogen - containing fertilizers are provided [83][84][85]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Urea Option**: Graphs of urea option position, trading volume, position PCR, trading PCR, and option volatility are provided [92][94][102]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind map, and industry chain characteristics are provided [105][107][109]. - **Fertilizer Demand Seasonality**: Analyzes the fertilizer demand seasonality of different regions and countries, and summarizes the overall characteristics of global and domestic fertilizer demand seasonality [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the steel industry faced weak supply - demand fundamentals. Steel mills' profitability was under pressure, with average profit margins narrowing. Supply showed signs of active contraction due to low steel prices and rising cost pressures. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils declined year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. However, with the continuous implementation of domestic policies and the improvement of the external environment, there is a possibility of a stable recovery in terminal demand, and the industry may enter a window of marginal improvement. Key factors to watch include the pace of infrastructure fund investment, the strength of manufacturing recovery, overseas interest - rate cut processes, and signals from the domestic Politburo meeting [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In November 2025, steel mills' profitability continued to be under pressure, with average profit margins further decreasing. The blast furnace profit was about 31 yuan/ton, and the electric furnace profit was about 79 yuan/ton, both in a weak range [11]. - **Supply**: Rebar production in November 2025 was 8.2258 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4999 million tons; hot - rolled coil production was 12.6684 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7442 million tons. The daily average pig iron output was about 2.3551 million tons, a slight decline from the previous month. Affected by the significant compression of profits, the production enthusiasm of steel mills decreased, and the profitability rate dropped to 36.36%, at a low level within the year [11]. - **Demand**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 8.9362 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6604 million tons; the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 12.7253 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1718 million tons. The demand for plates was significantly differentiated, with the demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates relatively strong, especially the demand for medium - thick plates in November approaching the high point of the same period in the past five years. The demand for hot - rolled coils was neutral, without obvious increments. Rebar demand was still weak due to the continuous weakness of real - estate investment [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, rebar inventory was 5.3148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8384 million tons; hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products remained at a neutral level, but there was significant differentiation among varieties. Hot - rolled coil inventory was in a relatively high range, and it was difficult to reduce social inventory. With the seasonal weakening of demand, there was still a certain inventory accumulation pressure before the end of the year [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The document presents a series of charts showing the prices, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different steel products and regions, including rebar in North, East, and South China, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products [25][27][30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The document shows the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces through charts [81][83][84]. - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan and 55 billet - rolling enterprises [95][98][106]. 3.4 Cost End - The document shows the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average pig iron and crude steel output, the prices of billets, scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel through charts [114][117][120]. 3.5 Supply End - **Rebar**: The production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year production of rebar are presented. In November 2025, rebar production decreased year - on - year, and the production capacity utilization rate also showed certain changes [136][138]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The actual production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year production of hot - rolled coils are presented. The production of hot - rolled coils also decreased year - on - year [141][143]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Domestic Demand**: The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils are presented. The demand for both decreased year - on - year. In addition, the production and export data of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are also shown [148][151][153]. - **Import - Export**: The monthly import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates are presented. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will put pressure on China's steel exports [11][163][165].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price accelerated its decline in December due to high production, expired warehouse receipt delivery difficulties, high inventory, and falling ore prices. The overseas ore supply is the decisive factor for the future price trend [11]. - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high production and continuous inventory accumulation. The oversupply situation is difficult to reverse without large - scale production cuts [11]. - After the rainy season, the bauxite shipping will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, but the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production cut expectation is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - As of December 5, the alumina index fell 7.36% from October 31 to 2607 yuan/ton. The basis and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts continued to widen in November. The Shandong spot price had a premium of 185 yuan/ton over the main contract price, and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts was 145 yuan/ton [11]. - The alumina spot prices in different regions decreased. The southern region had a larger decline. As of December 5, the prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2890, 2905, 2845, 2755, 2830, and 3090 yuan/ton respectively, with significant drops compared to early November [11]. - As of December 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 272,000 tons to 5.004 million tons. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,200 tons to 253,300 tons [11]. 3.2 Period - Spot End - The alumina spot price is under pressure due to high production and inventory. The oversupply situation is difficult to reverse without large - scale production cuts. The southern region's spot price had a larger decline compared to the north [18]. - As of December 5, the alumina index fell 7.36% from October 31. The basis and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts continued to widen. The Shandong spot price had a premium of 185 yuan/ton over the main contract price, and the spread between the first - month and the third - month contracts was 145 yuan/ton [21]. 3.3 Raw Material End - Domestic bauxite production decreased due to environmental protection and rainy seasons, but the price remained firm. The alumina plants' willingness to lower prices increased due to shrinking profits. The imported bauxite shipping volume recovered, and the port inventory was high. After the rainy season, the ore price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the cost support of Guinea's bauxite at 60 - 65 US dollars/ton [12]. - In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months was 55.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54% [27]. - In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.32%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months were 171.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11% [29]. - In October 2025, China imported 900,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 18.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.25%. The cumulative imports in the first ten months were 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.37% [32]. - As of December 31, 2025, the global bauxite shipping volume remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory was 28.07 million tons [35]. - In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 780,000 tons to 53.29 million tons. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased, and the increase mainly came from Shandong [38]. 3.4 Supply End - In October 2025, China's alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88% and a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 74.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.03% [41]. - There will be more new alumina production capacity in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which is expected to intensify the oversupply situation [44]. - The alumina spot price is falling, and the alumina plants' profits are under pressure. However, due to the simultaneous decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and bauxite, the plants have not suffered deep losses. As of December 5, the production profit in Guangxi was 140 yuan/ton, and the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinea ore were - 10 and 70 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinea ore in Shanxi and Henan will result in a loss of 40 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Import - Export - In October 2025, the net alumina import was 13,600 tons. The opening of the previous import window led to the first monthly change from net export to net import this year. The cumulative net export in the first ten months was 1.4375 million tons [49]. - As of December 5, the FOB price of Australian alumina decreased by 4 US dollars/ton to 312 US dollars/ton compared to the end of October. The import profit and loss was - 3 yuan/ton, and the current import profit and loss was basically balanced [52]. 3.6 Demand End - In October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% and a month - on - month increase of 2.74%. The cumulative production in the first ten months was 36.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [56]. - In October 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. The operating rate was maintained at 97.47% [59]. 3.7 Inventory - As of December 5, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 272,000 tons to 5.004 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, alumina plant inventory, in - transit inventory, and port inventory changed by + 231,000 tons, - 60,000 tons, + 78,000 tons, and + 23,000 tons respectively [64]. - As of December 5, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse increased by 16,200 tons to 253,300 tons [66].

短多维持 裂差向下 原油月报 2025/12/05 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In December, China's refined copper production is expected to rebound further. With seasonal consumption support and continuous disruptions from scrap copper substitution, a slight supply surplus is expected. Overseas demand is neutrally slightly weak, while the expectation of future supply tightening drives the spot market stronger. - The Fed is likely to continue its rate - cut rhythm, and China's end - of - year economic meeting is expected to release clearer policy signals. Despite geopolitical disturbances, the sentiment is slightly warm. - The expectation of mine - end tightness leading to production cuts and spot tightening supports copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, with the support of policy easing expectations, consumption, and limited scrap copper substitution, copper prices may rise further. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price reactions after the implementation of macro - events. - This month, the reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper is 87,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME 3M copper is 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and focus on short - term trading [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Major large - scale copper mines have slow supply recovery, and the copper mine supply remains in a tight expectation, while the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In November, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to further rebound in December [9]. - **Demand**: In November, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to have a slight year - on - year increase, and the apparent consumption in December is expected to decline year - on - year. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is neutrally slightly weak [9]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November, the export window for SHFE copper under the processing trade with imported materials opened, and the price difference between US copper and LME copper remained [9]. - **Inventory**: In November, the inventories of SHFE and bonded areas decreased, while the inventories of COMEX and LME increased. The total inventory increased, but the structural problem still exists. It is estimated that China's inventory will slightly accumulate in December [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In November, copper prices continued to rise after consolidating at a high level. Expectations of tightened copper mine supply, smelting production cuts, and Fed rate cuts drove copper prices to hit new historical highs. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 0.48% in the month, and the LME 3M contract rose 2.61%. The US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated. At the beginning of December, copper prices broke through upwards [19]. - **Price Difference between Markets**: Since November, the import loss of SHFE copper has oscillated and expanded, and the spot export window for processing trade with imported materials has opened. In November, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper oscillated, and the expectation of future tariff collection continued to support the price difference [22]. - **Inventory & Basis**: As of the end of November, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 742,000 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons from the end of October. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, but the inventory structural problem still exists. China's copper inventory decreased in the month. The exchange inventory was about 98,000 tons, and the off - exchange social inventory was about 74,000 tons. The bonded area inventory increased, and the absolute amount was about 95,000 tons at the beginning of December. LME copper inventory increased, and COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. In terms of basis, the LME market's Cash/3M strengthened in an oscillating manner in November and maintained a premium pattern at the beginning of December; the domestic basis oscillated and increased, and the spot price was at a premium of about 170 yuan/ton over the futures price at the beginning of December [25][28]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of November, the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds oscillated and declined, and the sentiment cooled marginally. The position of SHFE copper first decreased and then increased, and the current position is still at a multi - year high, with long and short positions continuing to confront each other. In December, the impact of market sentiment is expected to mainly come from the Fed's monetary policy attitude, supply expectations, and changes in spot supply and demand [31]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mine**: In 2025, large - scale copper mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and EI Teniente had larger - than - expected production declines due to accidents. According to the latest company announcements, the impact of the accidents is longer than expected. It is estimated that the copper mine production in 2026 will remain close to the 2025 level, and a recovery growth will occur in 2027. Therefore, it is judged that the copper mine supply will remain tight in 2026. In October, Chile's copper production still had a large year - on - year decline, maintaining a low level. In November, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports oscillated and rebounded, and the port spot supply was slightly loose, but the degree of looseness was limited under the background of overseas copper mine production cuts. In terms of processing fees, the spot TC of copper concentrates oscillated at the bottom in November. Due to the low historical level of spot processing fees and the tight copper mine supply, the annual long - term TC contract negotiation was deadlocked [36][39]. - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In November, the domestic blister copper processing fee oscillated and increased, and the cold material supply for refined copper production remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in the mainstream domestic regions, strengthened and remained at a relatively high level, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. In November, domestic refined copper production increased month - on - month, slightly higher than expected. In December, the impact of copper smelting maintenance still exists, but the year - end production rush will drive the recovery of refined copper production. At the end of November, CSPT reached a consensus to cut production by 10% in 2026, increasing the uncertainty of domestic copper smelting supply [42][43]. - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In November, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,200 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Against the background of uncertain local tax rebate policies and rising copper prices, scrap copper had a good substitution advantage. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises oscillated and declined in November. Although the expansion of the refined - scrap price difference increased production enthusiasm, the impact of tax rebate policies on recycled copper rod production was still significant, and short - term substitution was limited [47]. - **Demand - China**: Assuming an increase in net imports, the estimated apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in November was about 1.472 million tons, with a slight year - on - year increase and a significant month - on - month rebound. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to November was about 15.113 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, the official manufacturing PMI in China rebounded in November, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI weakened, and the improvement in manufacturing prosperity was not obvious. The production of copper products in China increased by about 5.9% in the first 10 months of 2025, with the growth rate declining month - on - month. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, and the operating rate in December is seasonally strong, but it is expected to decline slightly month - on - month after the rise in copper prices. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China oscillated and rebounded in November, with the average operating rate lower than the same period last year, but the current operating level is not low against the background of continuous rising copper prices. The operating conditions of domestic wire and cable enterprises improved in November, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rebound in December. In the downstream, the year - on - year decline in power investment (power source + power grid) continued in October, the year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations continued with a slight month - on - month increase, and the year - on - year growth of new wind power installations turned positive. The relevant demand is expected to improve marginally near the end of the year. From high - frequency data, the domestic real estate transaction data in November was weaker than the same period last year, and the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate backend remained weak; the high - frequency data of automobile sales in November remained strong [50][53][56][59][62]. - **Demand - Overseas**: In November, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. The prosperity of the United States, the Eurozone, and India declined, while that of the United Kingdom and Japan improved. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased year - on - year and month - on - month in September 2025, and the consumption from January to September increased by about 5.5% [65]. 4. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a delay in data release. The recently released ADP data showed that the US job market was still relatively weak. Due to the weak job market, recent Fed officials' statements were dovish, and the probability of a rate cut at this month's interest - rate meeting exceeded 80%. The Fed stopped quantitative tightening on December 1st, and the direction of marginal policy easing remained unchanged. In November, the US dollar index oscillated, and the direction of the US dollar indicated by US monetary policy was bearish; the US 10 - year inflation expectation oscillated and stabilized, still deviating from the copper price trend [70][72].

蛋白粕月报 2025/12/05 南美天气较为正常， 大豆进口成本震荡 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 03 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：11月美豆震荡为主，中国持续购买及美国国内库销比偏低提供支撑，但全球大豆库销比较高施压上方空间。11月巴西升贴水调涨 10美分/蒲左右，大豆到港成本窄幅震荡。南美大豆主要种植区11月同比偏干，不过12月初降雨恢复，然而巴西东南部及阿根廷大部分产区 预计降雨量持续较少，产区还未达到一帆风顺。USDA预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从2024年 10月的33%落回到目前的28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 国内双粕：11月国内豆粕现货震荡，基差震荡，期货盘面跟随成本窄幅波动，油厂买船利润小幅亏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are strong following the rise in gold and silver prices, but there is a risk of a short - term pullback. The prices of platinum and palladium have increased this month, but the driving force of the spot market has weakened, and the tight overseas spot pattern has eased. With the ETF holdings showing mediocre performance, attention should be paid to the price decline risk when the trading enthusiasm in the precious metal sector fades. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach for platinum and palladium currently [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Movements**: NYMEX platinum price rose 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce this month. The platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have also seen price increases since their listing on November 27 [10][21][24] - **Implied Lease Rates**: The one - month implied lease rates of platinum and palladium have declined, indicating a relief in the tight overseas spot situation. The platinum one - month implied lease rate dropped from 24.1% on November 4 to 15.03% on December 4, and that of palladium fell from 11.71% to 6.89% [10] - **ETF Holdings**: Overseas major platinum ETF total holdings decreased from 76.04 tons to 75.88 tons this month, while palladium ETF total holdings remained around 14.8 tons [10] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market expects an 84.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, and a 15.2% probability of keeping the rate unchanged. The easing expectation has been almost fully priced, and there is a risk of a decline in precious metal prices [10] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: NYMEX platinum price increased by 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose by 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce. The domestic platinum and palladium futures prices also had small increases [21][24] - **Domestic Platinum Premium**: Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium has significantly rebounded. As of December 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 434.2 yuan/gram [27] - **Lease Rates**: As of December 4, the platinum and palladium one - month implied lease rates were at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years but showed obvious weakening signs in the short term [31] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC positions of platinum and palladium have not been updated to the latest reporting period [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 4, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.87 tons, and those of palladium ETFs were 14.8 tons [50][53] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 4, the CME platinum inventory was 19.14 tons [57] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory as of December 4 was 5,362 kilograms, with a decrease of 25.93 kilograms compared to November 25 [62][63] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [67][68] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [70][71] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline from September, and palladium imports in October were 3.1 tons, a significant drop from September [74][77] - **Automobile Production**: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, but no clear conclusion is drawn from these data [79][82][85] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.5 tons [88][89] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [93][97] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: The report shows the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [106][102] - **London - NYMEX Spreads**: The report provides the spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices [108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The theoretical and planned pig slaughter volume remains large. With high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the pens for secondary fattening by individual farmers are slowly releasing. The supply - side pressure remains high. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from spot prices, but when prices are too low, there may be fluctuations due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread idea, but gradually shift the focus from shorting near - term contracts at high levels to going long on far - term contracts at low levels [10][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since November, domestic pig prices have been oscillating downward. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, while the demand is affected by the lack of obvious cooling. Curing has only been carried out sporadically, and individual farmers mainly focus on selling pigs, lacking support from secondary fattening. The price is under overall pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly decreased, and the average trading weight has slowly increased. In November, the average price in Henan dropped by 1.12 yuan to 11.38 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.8 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 1.04 yuan to 11.92 yuan/kg. This month, due to the increased supply from large enterprises and individual farmers, the supply may increase significantly. The demand may remain stable in the early stage and may have difficulty absorbing the supply. However, with the peak of curing later, there may be a sharp increase when the spot price is too low, but the overall sufficient supply may limit the increase. Therefore, it is expected that pig prices will be weak first and then strong this month, but the overall center of gravity will still decline [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In October, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply situation this year and in the first half of next year. However, there is a strong expectation of mandatory capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve the supply situation next year. The implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction in the next few months needs to be closely monitored. From the data of piglets, the basic supply from now to May next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Coupled with the backward accumulation of inventory caused by frozen pork storage and secondary fattening this round, as well as the pre - arranged supply to cope with the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the pig market before the Spring Festival this year will still face a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large - weight pigs. In the short term, after the National Day, the slaughter volume has remained high, the frozen pork inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of pigs is larger than the same period last year and has increased month - on - month. The short - term market still has an oversupply situation [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the National Day, the demand has increased month - on - month. On the one hand, low prices have stimulated consumption, and frozen pork and secondary fattening have entered the market. On the other hand, basic consumption has increased after the temperature dropped. However, the temperature drop from October to November was limited, and there is still some time until the Spring Festival. A significant increase in consumption needs to wait until December [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short contracts 01 and 03 after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 0.5 - 1 month, driven by supply, weight, and consumer demand. For arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for contracts 3 - 7 and 3 - 9, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The domestic pig price has been oscillating downward since November. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price will be weak first and then strong this month, but the overall center of gravity will decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot market is generally weak, and the near - term futures follow the spot. The far - term futures trade on the expectation of capacity reduction, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Breeding Sows and Changes**: In October, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The production capacity reduction in the early stage was slow, but there are signs of acceleration recently [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the data of piglets, the basic supply from now to April next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market will face a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large - weight pigs. In the short term, the market has an oversupply situation [42][49]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the National Day, the demand has increased month - on - month. However, due to limited temperature drop from October to November and some time until the Spring Festival, a significant increase in consumption needs to wait until December [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen pork inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].

继续关注12月密集宏观事件及其可 能引发的市场情绪拐点 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅月报 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5720元/吨，环比+90元/吨，较上月初+20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5796元/吨，环比+180元/吨，较上月 初-22元/吨；基差114元/吨，环比-90元/吨，基差率1.94%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-565元/吨，环比+20元/吨，较上月初-147元/吨；宁夏-651元/吨，环比+30元 /吨，较上月初-147元/吨；广西-748元/吨，环比+127元/吨，较上月初-9元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6095元/吨，环比+10元/ ...