金融期权 2025/07/30 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为偏多头震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率逐渐下降至均值较低水平平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Strategies are provided for selected metal options in each sector, including directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper shows a high - level consolidation trend, and a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy is recommended; aluminum shows a long - biased high - level shock, and a bull - spread call option strategy and a short - option combination strategy are recommended; zinc shows a short - term long - biased shock, and similar strategies to aluminum are recommended; nickel shows a wide - range shock with short - side pressure, and a short - option combination strategy with a short delta is recommended; tin shows a short - term weak shock, and a short - volatility strategy is recommended; lithium carbonate shows a large - amplitude fluctuation, and a short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta is recommended [7][9][10][11]. - For precious metals, gold shows a short - term weak shock, and a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a neutral delta is recommended; silver shows a long - biased shock, and a short - option combination strategy with a long delta is recommended [12]. - For black metals, rebar shows an upward shock with pressure, and a short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a covered call strategy are recommended; iron ore shows a long - biased shock, and a bull - spread call option strategy and a short - option combination strategy with a long delta are recommended; ferroalloys (manganese silicon and silicon iron) show a long - biased trend, and bull - spread call option strategies and short - volatility strategies are recommended; industrial silicon and polysilicon show a rebound and upward trend with large fluctuations, and short - volatility strategies are recommended; glass shows a rebound after a large decline, and a short - volatility strategy and a long - collar strategy are recommended [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2509) is 79,090, with a price increase of 110 and a trading volume of 6.54 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.63, and the open interest PCR is 0.72 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000, and the support level is 75,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various metal options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 10.76% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Use a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Adopt a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Implement a short - option combination strategy with a short delta and a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Apply a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Use a short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold**: Build a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Silver**: Use a short - option combination strategy with a long delta and a spot collar strategy [12]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar**: Implement a short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - option combination strategy with a long delta, and a spot collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: Use bull - spread call option strategies and short - volatility strategies [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Apply short - volatility strategies and spot hedging strategies [14]. - **Glass**: Implement a short - volatility strategy and a long - collar strategy [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content, so this section is skipped. Core Views of the Report - The market volume increase drives full - scale rises in various sectors. Pay attention to the new statements of the end - of - month Politburo meeting which may become the short - term market direction. Suggest buying IF stock index futures on dips [3] - In the bond market, although the economic data in Q2 shows resilience and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, the current positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term fluctuations are affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6] - The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] - For various metals, the prices are affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Most metals are expected to show a trend of volatile and weak operation in the short - term [10][11][12] - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand in August, while some products like methanol and urea face supply - demand imbalances [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [55][56][57] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: Some self - media content about the photovoltaic industry is inconsistent with the facts; from January to June, the total operating income, total profit, and tax payable of state - owned enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the asset - liability ratio increased; the Kremlin's statement about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in September and the diplomatic response; Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 outlook, causing its US stocks to fall sharply [2] - **Trading Logic**: The market volume increase leads to a full - scale rise in various sectors. Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined [4] - **News**: By the end of H1, the scale of cash - management wealth management products decreased; the US housing price increase slowed down in May [4] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 shows resilience, but the positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the US dollar index is strong, and the copper price rebounds with fluctuations. LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot premium changes [10] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the upward space of copper price is limited due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [11] Aluminum - **Market**: The domestic black series stabilizes and rebounds, and the price of Shanghai aluminum declines with fluctuations. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changes, and the LME inventory increases [12] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic and overseas sentiment is positive, the price rebound is limited due to the off - season of downstream demand and weak export demand. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [12] Zinc - **Market**: The Shanghai zinc index rises slightly. The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the inventory is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish. In the short - term, pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the structural risks in the LME market. Be cautious about price fluctuations [13] Lead - **Market**: The Shanghai lead index declines slightly. The supply of lead ingots tightens marginally, and the price of lead batteries stabilizes [15][16] - **Outlook**: If the inspection of smelters expands, the price may strengthen. Be cautious about price fluctuations affected by capital sentiment [16] Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is stable, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [17] - **Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment cools down, and the price of stainless steel falls. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [17] Tin - **Market**: The tin price is weakly volatile. The inventory of the domestic futures exchange and LME increases, and the price of tin concentrate declines [18] - **Outlook**: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery increases, but the short - term supply of smelting raw materials is still under pressure. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declines, and the futures contract price also falls [19] - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the passive reduction of the mine end. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of carbonate lithium can seize the entry opportunity according to their own situation [19][20] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rises, and the spot prices in different regions increase. The import window is closed, and the futures inventory is at a low level [21] - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [21] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of futures and society decreases [22] - **Outlook**: The steel mill's price - supporting policy is firm, but if terminal demand cannot keep up, the price may decline. Pay attention to macro - news and downstream demand [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The price of the AD2511 contract slightly declines, and the trading volume shrinks. The spot price is stable, and the inventory slightly increases [23] - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to face upward pressure [23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rise, and the spot prices change. The inventory of rebar decreases, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increases slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand [26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore futures contract rises, and the inventory of ports and steel mills increases slightly [27][28] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply pressure is not significant. The short - term price may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - situation [28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market**: The spot price in Shahe and Huazhong changes, and the inventory decreases [29] - **Outlook**: The short - term glass price is boosted by macro - policies, and it is expected to be volatile. In the long - term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side contraction [29] - **Soda Ash** - **Market**: The spot price is stable, and the inventory decreases. The price fluctuates widely [30] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rise. The spot prices also increase [31] - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations are large, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. In the long - term, the fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The price of the industrial - silicon futures contract rises. The spot prices of different grades decline [35] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The long - term fundamentals are still in a situation of over - supply and insufficient demand [36] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU decline significantly and then fluctuate slightly. The开工 rates of domestic tire enterprises change, and the inventory of natural rubber decreases [39] - **Outlook**: The price is in a state of decline and fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the band - operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [41] Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures rise. The gasoline inventory in the port of Fujairah decreases, and the diesel inventory increases [42] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals are healthy, and the oil price has upward momentum, but it is limited by seasonal demand in August. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42] Methanol - **Market**: The price of the methanol futures contract rises, and the spot price also increases [43] - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Urea - **Market**: The price of the urea futures contract rises, and the spot price declines [44] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [44] Styrene - **Market**: The spot price declines, and the futures price rises. The inventory of the port increases, and the demand from downstream industries rises [45] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side [45] PVC - **Market**: The price of the PVC futures contract rises, and the spot price declines. The inventory of the factory decreases, and the social inventory increases [47] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The price may decline after the sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The price of the EG09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory of the port decreases [48] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and the short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - **Market**: The price of the PTA09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory accumulates [49] - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to accumulate, and the processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [49] p - Xylene - **Market**: The price of the PX09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory is at a low level [50] - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The price of the PE futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise decreases, and the inventory of the trader increases [51][52] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side, and it is recommended to hold short positions [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The price of the PP futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise, trader, and port increases [53] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong in July under the influence of macro - expectations [53] Agricultural Products Pig - **Market**: The domestic pig price mainly declines, and the demand is weak. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction [55] - **Strategy**: Pay more attention to the opportunity of spread trading, and the long - term structure of the spread may change [55] Egg - **Market**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the high temperature reduces the egg - laying rate. The spot price rebounds, and the short - term near - month contract fluctuates [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the price rebounds for contracts after September [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans declines at night, and the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declines, and the trading volume is large [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to factors such as squeezing profit and supply pressure. Consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 09 contract [58] Oil - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price fluctuates, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in three major oils increase slightly. The export and production data of palm oil and other products change [59][60] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile. The palm oil price may be supported in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61] Sugar - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [62] - **Outlook**: If the external - market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline [62] Cotton - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures drops sharply, and the spot price slightly declines. The growth data of US cotton changes [63] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is bearish as the price breaks the upward trend line and the downstream consumption is weak [63]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that soybean meal should be mainly considered from an interval oscillation perspective. Upward breakthrough requires intensified trade wars and South American planting problems, while downward breakthrough needs domestic consumption slump and further supply relaxation. Recently, soybean meal may remain weak due to large inventories and sufficient external market supply. The opportunity for price increase may come from the National Day stocking in September, the domestic soybean de - stocking window, and the improvement of crushing margins from South American planting transactions. Additionally, the soybean oil segment may be relatively stronger due to the year - end palm oil de - stocking expectation and the B50 policy expectation [1][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak in mid - August due to good提货 - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, about 230,000 tons higher than last year, and oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons, about 300,000 tons lower than last year. Feed enterprise inventory days were 8.19 days, 0.76 days higher than last year. Overall, the current domestic protein inventory is similar to last year [3]. - From September 2024 to August 2025, 107.83 million tons of soybeans were purchased, compared with 111.89 million tons in the same period last year. Considering the port soybean inventory difference in October 2024, the annual supply actually decreased by about 2 million tons. As of July 22, 2025, 6.2 million tons were purchased for September 2025 and 1.06 million tons for October. With similar supply and increased consumption, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak around mid - August [4]. 2. The supply pressure of external market soybeans from August to January of the following year is slightly greater than last year, and the expected output growth rate of South American new crops slows down - For US soybeans, a good harvest is likely this year, but it's difficult to achieve a maximum trend yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. Assuming the yield is adjusted down to 51.5 - 52 bushels per acre, the 2025/26 output may be reduced by about 1 - 2 million tons, and the new - crop export volume is expected to decline by 3 - 6 million tons compared with last year [6]. - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean output in 2025 is 169 million tons, and the export volume is expected to be 102 million tons. The shipping volume from August to January is estimated to be 23 - 29 million tons, about 7 million tons higher than last year. The real - world supply pressure from September to January in the external market is higher than last year, and the overall output growth of South American soybeans is expected to be 5 - 6 million tons [6][8]. 3. The import cost of soybeans is expected to maintain an interval oscillation similar to last year - As of July 29, 2025, the price of the November US soybean contract was 1009 cents per bushel, and the planting cost was around 1190 cents per bushel. The US soybean and global soybean new and old crop stock - to - use ratios are slightly better than last year, and the US soybean has support at 955 cents per bushel [10]. - The FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans is about 180 cents per bushel, stronger than last year. If there are results regarding US soybean purchases later, the Brazilian premium may drop by 60 - 70 cents per bushel. The bottom - end interval of external market soybean import costs may remain at around 3600 yuan per ton, with limited upward space [10]. - The domestic soybean spot crushing margin is at the break - even line, as are the September and November contract crushing margins for soybean meal and soybean oil. If domestic downstream soybean meal consumption can maintain a high level, it may skip the inventory pressure in August and directly trade the South American sowing period and the domestic soybean de - stocking period from September to November [11].

农产品早报 2025-07-30 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，但因为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则 因国内累库等继续偏弱，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周油厂豆粕库存已突破 100 万吨。周二豆粕国内豆粕现货 小幅下跌，华东报 2830 元/吨，豆粕成交较好突破 40 万吨，提货仍然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回 落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万吨，本周预计压榨 237.26 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水企 稳回升。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-30 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.49 %，报 774.32 元/克，沪银涨 0.46 %，报 9234.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.09 %， 报 3384.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.25 %，报 38.38 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.34%，美元指数报 98.90 ； 市场展望： 昨夜公布的美国经济数据弱势，市场对于联储下半年宽松货币政策预期上升，金银价格得到支 撑。 关键的劳动力市场数据方面，美国 6 月 JOLTs 职位空缺数为 743.7 万人，低于预期的 750 万人 以及前值的 771.2 万人。房地产市场方面，美国 5 月 S&P/CS 20 座大中城市房价指数同比值为 2.79%，低于预期的 3%以及前值的 3.42%，季调后环比值为-0.34%，低于预期的-0.2%以及前值 的-0.31%。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，市场预期联储在本周议息会议中有 96. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4 per barrel, suggesting short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips and left - hand side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand side shows a decline in MTO profits, and the market may shift to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, facing callback pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the domestic production continues to decline, and the cost - side support is gradually strengthening. The demand is weak, but exports are an important demand increment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to focus on long positions on dips [5]. - For rubber, after a significant correction, NR and RU are slightly fluctuating. The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [7]. - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Although it is currently strong due to supply reduction expectations and the rebound of the black building materials sector, there is a risk of a significant decline when the sentiment fades [9]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support, with different views from bulls and bears [11][13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate upwards following the cost side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, macro - expectations will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July [16]. - For PX, the load remains high, and the downstream PTA maintenance season is over. With low inventory and improved polyester and terminal operations, there is a short - term opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are starting, and the downstream production has recovered but remains at a low level. The port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the valuation may decline in the short term although it is currently strong due to anti - involution sentiment [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.27, or 3.39%, to $69.25; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.36, or 3.35%, to $72.76; INE main crude oil futures rose 4 yuan, or 0.76%, to 531 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 6.87 million barrels, a 17.29% month - on - month decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 2.45 million barrels, an 11.98% month - on - month increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production is bottoming out and rising, and the demand side shows a decline in MTO profits and a continuation of the off - season for traditional demand [3]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On July 29, the 09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1744 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 16 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production continues to decline, the cost - side support is strengthening, the demand for compound fertilizers is slowly recovering, and exports are an important demand increment [5]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: NR and RU slightly fluctuated after a significant correction [7]. - **Supply Concerns**: The cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC09 contract rose 43 yuan to 5192 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5020 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 172 (- 103) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 124 (+ 4) yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall production rate is 76.8%, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease; the downstream production rate is 41.9%, and the factory inventory is 35.7 (- 1) tons, while the social inventory is 68.3 (+ 2.6) tons [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and cost - side support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period. The supply side shows an increase in production, and the demand side shows an increase in the overall operating rate of three S products [11][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7385 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan weakening [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 80.31%, a 0.05% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.64 tons to 50.29 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 5.98 tons. The downstream average production rate is 38.42%, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase, the spot price was 7165 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan weakening [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream production rate is 78.44%, a 1.11% month - on - month increase. The production enterprise inventory increased by 1.48 tons to 58.06 tons, the trader inventory increased by 1.43 tons to 16.66 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.41 tons to 6.72 tons. The downstream average production rate is 48.45%, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: The PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6942 yuan, the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 857 dollars, the basis was 122 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+ 18) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese load is 79.9%, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the Asian load is 72.9%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease. There are changes in domestic and overseas device operations, and the PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged [18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PTA09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4838 yuan, the East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4830 yuan, the basis was - 5 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 6 (+ 4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load is 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 18 was 218.9 tons, a 1.7 - ton increase [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG09 contract rose 31 yuan to 4467 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was 62 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 25 (+ 3) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side production rate is 68.4%, a 2.2% month - on - month increase. The downstream load is 88.7%, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. The port inventory is 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Option strategy reports are compiled for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - Strategies focus on constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures contracts show different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 516, up 10 with a 2.06% increase; the trading volume is 11.77 million lots, a decrease of 3.49 million lots, and the open interest is 3.78 million lots, a decrease of 0.22 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.54, an increase of 0.06, and the open - interest PCR is 0.50, a decrease of 0.03 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are determined. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.605%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.92%, a decrease of 0.30% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the UAE port transfer increase implies Iran's return to global supply, while Russia's shipments remain tight. The market is short - term weak. Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates increasing short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation is that the supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and the market is weak with pressure. Implied volatility first rises to a high level and then falls, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester load is rising, and the market is weakly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR around 0.90 indicates an oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a volatility - selling strategy for time - value gain, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation shows mixed trends, and the market is weak with short - side pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a low - level consolidation. Implied volatility rapidly rises to a high historical level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates short - side strength. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is weak with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high mean level, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is increasing, and the market is falling back with pressure. Implied volatility first rises rapidly and then drops significantly, remaining at a high level. The open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a high level and increasing, and the market is falling back with pressure. Implied volatility first rises rapidly and then drops significantly, remaining at a high level. The open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong short - side pressure. Strategies include constructing a volatility - selling combination for volatility gain, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - The port inventory is increasing slightly, and the enterprise inventory is decreasing with a slowing slope. The market oscillates under short - side pressure. Implied volatility fluctuates slightly below the historical mean, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 indicates a weakening market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].