文字早评 2025/08/01 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国常会：部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策；审议通过《关于深入实 施"人工智能+"行动的意见》；要更加注重激发经济发展内生动力 持续深化重点领域改革； 2、国家发改委：纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 破除"内卷式"竞争；推动"人工智能+"行动走深走 实 推进低空经济高质量发展；加大力度稳投资促消费 拓展投资增量; 3、商务部：中美将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90 天； 交易逻辑：政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头，进一 步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度，策略上仍关注市场逢低做多的机会。 国债 4、微软及 Meta 业绩超预期，股价大幅上涨； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.13%/-0.46%/-1.22%/-2.09%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.64%/-3.96%/-6.02%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.74%/-1.85%/-4.64%/-7.17%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 - Research Team: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Market Overview - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed a downward trend. For example, copper (CU2509) dropped 0.55% to 78,010, aluminum (AL2509) decreased 0.58% to 20,450, etc. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2510) rose 0.12% to 770.92, while silver (AG2510) fell 1.37% to 8,935 [3] - **Black Metals**: Some black metals like iron ore (I2509) rose 0.25% to 786.50, while others such as industrial silicon (SI2509) dropped 6.26% to 8,760 [3] Group 3: Option Factors Volume - Open Interest PCR - Different metals have different PCR values and changes, which can be used to analyze market sentiment and potential turning points. For example, copper's volume PCR is 1.51 with a change of 1.00, and its open - interest PCR is 0.87 with a change of 0.15 [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Each metal option has its own pressure and support levels. For instance, copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different metals. For example, aluminum's weighted implied volatility is 12.47% with a change of 0.35%, and its historical average is 12.78% [6] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Construct a selling call + put option combination strategy with a positive delta and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Build a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy with a negative delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [10] - **Tin**: Implement a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Use a bullish call spread strategy, a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - position collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Implement a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Build a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - position collar strategy [15]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a strong - oscillating state, while by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own market trends. The report suggests constructing option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybeans (A2509) is 4,133, down 4 with a decline rate of 0.10%, the trading volume is 10.27 million lots, and the open interest is 12.22 million lots [3]. 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of different agricultural product options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean (A2509) is 0.55 with a change of 0.17, and the open interest PCR is 0.39 with no change [4]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has its own pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2509) is 4,300, and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options also shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean (A2509) is 9.31%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.04% with a change of - 0.32% [6]. 5. Strategies and Recommendations 5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (A2509, B2509)**: The US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 period has changed. The market shows a small - range consolidation and oscillation pattern. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies such as selling neutral call + put options and long collar strategies for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2509), Rapeseed Meal (RM2509)**: The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then a rebound. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2509), Soybean Oil (Y2509), Rapeseed Oil (OI2509)**: The palm oil market is affected by production and demand. It is recommended to construct selling long - biased call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and long collar strategies for spot hedging [11]. 5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs (LH2509)**: The spot price of pigs has declined, and the market shows a pattern of small - range consolidation under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [11]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: The egg price has risen and then stabilized. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: The apple market shows a pattern of gradual rebound. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: The jujube market shows a pattern of rebound and then a decline. It is recommended to construct selling short - biased strangle option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [13]. 5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2509)**: The sugar market shows a pattern of rebound after a decline. It is recommended to construct selling neutral call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton (CF2509)**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak pattern. It is recommended to construct selling long - biased call + put option combination strategies and covered strategies for spot hedging [14]. 5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2509), Starch (CS2509)**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak decline. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy of put options and selling short - biased call + put option combination strategies [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A short-term target price of $70.4 per barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short-term long positions with profit-taking on dips and left-side layout for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruption season [2]. - For methanol, the upstream production is expected to increase, and the demand side may turn weak, so methanol may face downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply and demand are weak, and there is no significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, the price is consolidating after a decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build-up pattern. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase and the inventory to build up. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.34%, at $69.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.92, or 1.25%, at $72.55; INE main crude oil futures closed up 1.70 yuan, or 0.32%, at 531.4 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.22 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels, a 1.72% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.59 million barrels to 8.46 million barrels, a 7.47% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 24.67 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 1.33 million barrels to 45.87 million barrels, a 3.00% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of -10 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream production has bottomed out and is expected to increase, while the demand side may turn weak, leading to a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The inventory level has decreased [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 31, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +46 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. Exports are an important source of demand growth. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are consolidating after a significant decline, following the trend of industrial products [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Tire factory operating rates have declined, and the demand is in a seasonal off-season. The supply reduction may be less than expected. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait and see for now, and consider a long RU2601 and short RU2509 band operation [10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 118 yuan to 5041 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG-5 was 4950 (-110) yuan/ton, with a basis of -91 (+8) yuan/ton and a 9-1 spread of -135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with high valuation [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has increased, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply has increased, the port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand has increased slightly [14]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost side to oscillate upward after the port inventory is reduced [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton, strengthening 37 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold short positions [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased, and the spot price has remained unchanged, with a basis of 47 yuan/ton, strengthening 27 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate has decreased slightly, the inventory situation is mixed, and the downstream demand is weak. The cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate upward [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 56 yuan to 6928 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 858 dollars, with a basis of 142 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of 64 yuan (-42) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate is high, the inventory is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates have recovered. The inventory is expected to continue to decline [21]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 48 yuan to 4808 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan to 4825 yuan, with a basis of -15 yuan (-5) and a 9-1 spread of -32 yuan (-34) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand side is about to end the off-season, and the inventory has increased. The processing fee has limited room for operation [22]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider long positions on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 24 yuan to 4503 yuan, with a basis of 68 yuan (+2) and a 9-1 spread of -27 yuan (+1) [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the port inventory has decreased, and the valuation is relatively high. The fundamental situation is expected to turn weak, and there is pressure on the short-term valuation to decline [23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

有色金属日报 2025-8-1 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美局势担忧下商品和权益市场均下行，昨日伦铜收跌 1.26%至 9607 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78010 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存增加 1350 至 138200 吨，注销仓单比例降至 12.3%，Cash/3M 贴水 46.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会库存较周一微降，保税区库存小幅增加 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周四夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，中美贸易谈判也暂未为美豆出口提供利好，但因 为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则因中美谈判未报道大豆有关信息获得支撑，市场预期缺乏美 豆买船巴西报价将维持强势。周四豆粕国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2870 元/吨，豆粕成交较好，提货仍 然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水小 幅上涨。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，但国内大豆进 口成本则处于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies are provided for selected varieties in each sector, mainly focusing on constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2509 is 533, with a price increase of 9 and a price change rate of 1.66% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.75, indicating a weakening of short - selling power in the near term. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 32.62% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the UAE port transfer increase implies Iran's return to global supply, while Russia's shipments are still tight. The short - term market is volatile and bullish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Gas**: The supply is abundant, and the short - term market is bearish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market shows a weak upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester load is rising. The market shows a narrow - range volatile and slightly strong trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation is complex, and the market shows a weak trend with upward pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11][12]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The social inventory is decreasing. The market shows a low - level consolidation trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a slight upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a volatile trend with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a high level and increasing. The market shows a significant decline trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is decreasing but the slope is slowing. The market shows a volatile trend under short - selling pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In early 2016, the zinc industry cycle was characterized by tight zinc ore supply and loose zinc ingot supply, with strong expectations but weak reality. The introduction of supply - side reform policies coordinated with the industry cycle, leading to a significant bull market in zinc prices. Currently, the zinc industry is in a situation of loose supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingot, with weak expectations and reality. Although policies such as anti - involution, elimination of backward production capacity, and stable growth have been introduced, the zinc industry cycle fails to resonate with domestic macro - policies, making it difficult for zinc prices to show a sustained upward trend. With the expected increase in zinc ingot supply, if speculative sentiment cools down and the macro - environment weakens, zinc prices still face significant downward risks [1][26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side: Loose Supply of Both Ore and Ingot - **Zinc Ore**: In the first half of the year, the increase in zinc ore supply mainly occurred overseas. From January to June in China, the cumulative year - on - year growth of net zinc ore imports was 48%, driving the cumulative year - on - year growth of total zinc ore supply to 13.5%. The significant growth in zinc ore supply is reflected in higher inventories than in previous years and rising processing fees. The current port inventory of zinc concentrates is 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory is 599,000 physical tons, with the total inventory increasing by 286,800 physical tons compared to the visible inventory of the same period last year. The current average domestic TC of zinc concentrates is 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 76 dollars/dry ton, increasing by 2,350 yuan/metal ton and 115 dollars/dry ton respectively compared to the low points of the same period last year [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The increase in zinc ingot supply lags behind that of zinc ore by about 4 months. China's smelting output began to rise in June. In June, the zinc ingot output was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. With abundant raw materials, it is expected that the average monthly total supply of domestic zinc ingots will remain above 600,000 tons in the second half of the year. Due to relatively limited downstream demand, the visible inventory of domestic zinc ingots has been rising since early June. From June to July, the total inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 24,500 tons to 196,300 tons, and the basis and monthly spread of SHFE zinc also declined significantly [4]. Demand Side: Weak Reality with Marginally Strengthening Expectations - **Current Demand Situation**: The operating conditions of primary enterprises are worse than in previous years. The weekly operating rate of galvanized coils is 3% lower than the same period last year, and that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises is 4.6% lower. However, some primary enterprises carried out strategic stockpiling as zinc prices declined. The sharp drop in zinc prices in the first half of 2025 brought forward the apparent demand for zinc ingots, and Trump's tariff policy brought forward galvanized exports. These early stockpiling/consumption behaviors may lead to weaker actual consumption in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period of previous years [12]. - **Demand Expectations**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. As a large - scale infrastructure project, it has increased the consumption expectation of zinc ingots to some extent. Zinc used in hydropower station construction is mainly for the anti - corrosion of metal structural parts. However, due to the long expected construction period of the project, the actual annual demand for zinc ingots is relatively limited, and it mainly has a boosting effect on market sentiment [12]. Market Sentiment and Capital Disturbance - **Overseas**: The Trump administration's influence on the Fed's monetary policy is increasing, raising the market's expectation of a loose Fed monetary policy, which provides some support for zinc prices. As the end - of - month Fed interest rate meeting approaches, the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision [17]. - **Domestic**: On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a work plan for stable growth and elimination of backward production capacity. Coupled with the anti - involution policy, it has ignited a bull market in domestic bulk commodities. Polysilicon, coking coal, and other black - series commodities have all risen significantly. SHFE zinc, as a non - ferrous metal variety highly correlated with black - series commodities, has also been affected by market sentiment to some extent. After the July delivery in the domestic zinc market, the registered warehouse receipts of zinc ingots on the SHFE returned to over 10,000 tons, the monthly spread of SHFE zinc declined significantly, and the domestic structural risk decreased significantly. Since early July, the concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market has been relatively high. On July 21, the cancelled warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased by 38,400 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts dropped to a low of 58,300 tons, pushing the LME zinc monthly structure to strengthen continuously, and the overseas structural risk remains high. Under the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets, the SHFE - LME ratio has continued to decline, and the zinc ingot import window has closed [17]. Comparison of Current and 2016 Market Conditions In 2016, the zinc industry entered a period of zinc ore shortage. According to SMM data, the average profit of zinc ore enterprises entered a loss since the second half of 2015, and in early 2016, the average profit was - 2,300 yuan/metal ton. The zinc ore processing fee was at a high level and showed a marginal weakening trend. Some high - cost zinc mines suffered severe losses. From the end of 2015 to early 2016, Glencore's zinc mines reduced production by 500,000 tons due to heavy losses, and MMG and Vedanta's zinc mines reduced production by 670,000 tons due to resource depletion. In contrast, the current zinc ore market is still in a state of oversupply. The average profit of SMM zinc ore is still 4,300 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee is on an upward trend without any signs of stagnation or weakening. According to the quarterly reports of overseas mining enterprises, the production of major mining enterprises is normal, and there is no tendency for profit - related production cuts [25].