Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

1. Report Summary - The report provides a morning strategy for metal options on December 8, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of various metal options and offers corresponding option strategies and suggestions [2]. 2. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals with a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility seller strategy; for black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, build a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals with a rebound, construct a bull spread combination strategy [2]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 92,380, up 820 with a 0.90% increase, and its trading volume is 18.81 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - It shows the volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, volume PCR, and open - interest PCR of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.43 with a 0.04 change, and the open - interest PCR is 0.87 with a 0.04 change [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, the report lists the pressure points, support points, and the maximum open interest of call and put options for each metal option. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 90,000, and the support point is 84,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for each metal option. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 21.77%, and the weighted implied volatility is 23.22% with a 0.93 change [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: With a tight supply of copper concentrates and a bullish price trend, construct a bull spread combination strategy for directional trading, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for volatility trading, and a spot long - hedging strategy [9]. - **Aluminum Options**: Given the support from macro - expectations and supply disruptions, build a bull spread combination strategy, a short - call + short - put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Zinc Options**: For zinc with a fluctuating and bullish - warming trend, use a short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Nickel Options**: Considering the current market situation of nickel, construct a short - call + short - put option combination strategy with a short - delta position and a spot covered - call strategy [11]. - **Tin Options**: With limited downside space for tin prices, build a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Based on the inventory and market trends, use a short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver Options**: Driven by factors such as investors' optimistic attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cuts, construct a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy with a long - delta position, and a spot hedging strategy [13]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Given the current situation of rebar, use a short - call + short - put option combination strategy with a short - delta position and a spot covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Considering the inventory and market trends of iron ore, build a short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: For manganese silicon and industrial silicon, use short - volatility strategies, and for industrial silicon, also use a spot long - hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass Options**: Based on the market situation of glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Energy - chemical options cover various categories including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc. [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 457 with a 4 - point increase and a 0.82% rise, and its trading volume is 6.68 million lots. [4] 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - Position PCR**: It shows the volume and position PCR of different option varieties, which helps describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.69 with a - 0.01 change, and the position PCR is 0.61 with no change. [5] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 430. [6] - **Implied Volatility**: It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the historical volatility and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 25.195%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.16% with a - 1.69% change. [7] 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Energy Options (Crude Oil)**: - **Fundamentals**: US crude oil production is 13.815 million barrels per day with a 0.01% month - on - month increase, refinery throughput is 16.876 million barrels per day with a 2.63% increase, and global floating storage has risen to 108.411 million barrels with a 10.2% increase. [8] - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil showed a weak - range oscillating trend in December after a significant decline in October and a rebound in November. [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates below the average level, the position PCR is below 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 430 respectively. [8] - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish put spread strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [8] - **Other Options (LPG, Methanol, etc.)**: Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for other energy - chemical options, including fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, option factor research, and corresponding option strategies such as directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot hedging strategies. [9][10][11]

贵金属日报 2025-12-08 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.15 %，报 958.72 元/克，沪银涨 2.67 %，报 13788.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4233.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 58.97 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.14%，美元指数报 98.98 ； 上周五，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特表态边际转鹰派，他虽然预期美联储 FOMC 将会在 本周议息会议钟进行 25 个基点的降息操作，但他却表示"现在是美联储在此谨慎降息的好时 机"，其措辞发言与前期激进的推动降息相比有所转谨慎。哈塞特进行表态后，金银价格冲高 回落，纽约期银价格未能突破 60 美元/盎司一线。 从盘面上来看，利于降息的经济数据短期对金银价格所形成的提振已相对有限，美联储 12 月 份议息会议前的最后一份就业报告表现偏弱，美国 11 月 ADP 就业人口数下降 3.2 万人，低于 预期的新增 1 万人和前值的新增 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, and oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is strongly consolidated, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidated in a bullish direction. The recommended strategy is to build an options portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as a spot hedging or covered strategy to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,081, down 7 with a decline of 0.17%, trading volume of 10.57 million lots (down 1.33 million lots) and open interest of 17.27 million lots (down 0.38 million lots) [3] 3.2 Options Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options varieties are different. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 options is 1.35, with a change of 0.82, and the open interest PCR is 0.95, with a change of 0.04 [4] 3.3 Options Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different options are analyzed from the perspective of the highest open - interest strike prices of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 4,250 and the support point is 4,000 [5] 3.4 Options Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options varieties is different. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.02%, the weighted implied volatility is 12.46% with a change of 0.46% [6] 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oil and Oilseed Options - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean market is affected by factors such as China's purchase of US soybeans and the cost of Brazilian soybeans. The price shows a weak upward trend with pressure. Options strategies include building a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal have changed, and the basis has increased. The price shows a rebound after over - decline. Options strategies include building a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia have an impact on the market. The price shows a rebound with pressure. Options strategies include building a bearish spread combination strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation stage. The price shows a short - term upward trend followed by a rapid decline. The options strategy is to build a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is relatively loose, and the demand has increased. The price shows a weak downward trend. Options strategies include building a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a high supply - demand balance. The price shows a weak upward trend followed by a rapid decline. Options strategies include building a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [11] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased, and the price shows a continuous upward trend with pressure. Options strategies include building a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Red Dates**: The red date market is weak. The price shows a weak downward trend. Options strategies include building a short - biased wide - straddle option selling combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The production of Brazilian sugarcane and the domestic sugar market situation affect the price. The price shows a weak downward trend. Options strategies include building a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate and cotton inventory have an impact on the price. The price shows a short - term upward trend followed by a decline. Options strategies include building a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The price of corn has increased, and the market shows a rebound trend. Options strategies include building a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [13]

宏观金融类 3、商业航天板块持续发酵，海外 space X 上市传闻叠加国内火箭和卫星密集发射； 文字早评 2025/12/08 星期一 4、据报道，OpenAI 最快下周二（12 月 9 日）发布 GPT-5.2，对谷歌的 Gemini3 系列模型首度展开回应。 期指基差比例： 股指 【行情资讯】 1、金融监管总局：发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》； 2、吴清：对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资本利用效率； IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.22%/-0.60%/-1.06%/-2.11%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-1.04%/-2.67%/-5.59%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.31%/-1.36%/-3.49%/-6.76%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.15%/-0.38%/-0.47%/-0.91%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 112.510 ， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stainless steel demand has shown marginal improvement compared to October. Cost decline has pushed spot prices to a stage low, stimulating downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices and attracting speculative bottom - fishing funds. These two factors have jointly promoted the warming of the market trading atmosphere and significantly increased trading activity. However, the pressure of high inventory remains significant. The focus of the subsequent market should be on the actual implementation of steel mills' production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled, the production cut intensity can be increased, or positive signals can be released from the policy side, and combined with the further release of downstream low - level replenishment demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock and drive the market to a phased turnaround [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Data**: On December 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.60%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.12% [11][16] - **Supply Data**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [11][26][29] - **Demand Data**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in October was +21.2% [11][39][42] - **Inventory Data**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [11][49][52] - **Cost Data**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [11][59] Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on December 5th was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel (unchanged month - on - month), and the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton (+0.60% month - on - month). The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton (+0.12% month - on - month) [16] - **Market Quotes and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong is about - 75 yuan (- 24) higher than the main contract, and that of Wuxi Hongwang is about 75 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk is 207,125 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.29% [19] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 is reported as - 95 (- 25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 is reported as - 170 (- 40) [22] Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [26][29] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. In October, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [32] - **Export Data**: In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; from January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, 65.78% higher than the same period last year [35] Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [39] - **Home Appliances**: In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively [42] - **Other Industries**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry was +21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year change of +0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [42][45] Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons [49] - **Inventory by Series**: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month. The floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [52] Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. The current quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.8733 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.83% [56] - **Nickel Iron**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [59] - **Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome**: The chromium ore quotation last week was 51 yuan/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/50 base tons. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 857 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.32% [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the prominent pressure on the nickel fundamentals, the nickel price broke through the platform and bottomed at around 115,000 yuan/ton. With the stabilization of the ferronickel price and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, the nickel price shifted to a volatile pattern. The report tends to believe that the short - term price has bottomed, but it is necessary to focus on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. [11] - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, or go long at low prices after the ferronickel price stabilizes and rebounds. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In November, the nickel ore price remained stable overall. For pyrometallurgical ore, although the smelter's cost - price inversion intensified and the demand for ore weakened significantly, the bargaining power of ore merchants was strong, and the prices of pyrometallurgical ore in Indonesia and the Philippines did not decline significantly. For hydrometallurgical ore, the market was still relatively dull, and the price mainly remained stable. [11] - **Ferronickel**: In November, the terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect led to a continuous decline in the ferronickel price. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, the stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, the industry inventory was high, and many stainless - steel enterprises had production - cut plans at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. The ferronickel production profit is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel, so it is expected that the ferronickel price will gradually stabilize in the future. [11] - **Intermediate products**: In November, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. On the supply side, the sulfur price remained strong, and the sellers were more willing to hold prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a relatively cold overall market transaction. [11] - **Refined nickel**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. In the spot market, the spot price of refined nickel was stronger than the futures price, and the premium was generally strong. [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: In November, the nickel price was weak, hitting a new low and then rebounding slightly. As of December 4, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline from the same period last month, and the LME nickel was quoted at 14,885 US dollars/ton, a 1.16% decline from the same period last month. [17] - **Nickel spot premium**: The spot premium was stable and slightly strong. As of December 4, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium of 400 yuan/ton over the near - month contract, the same as last month, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 5,000 yuan/ton, with the average price up 2,100 yuan/ton from the same period last month. [21] - **Secondary nickel price**: The decline of the ferronickel price slowed down. As of December 5, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 884 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 2 yuan/nickel point from the previous week. The nickel sulfate price declined slightly. As of December 5, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,460 - 27,600 yuan/ton, with the average price down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. [24] 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable. On December 5, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 51.43 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.59 US dollars/wet ton from the previous week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, the same as the previous week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/ton, the same as the previous week. [33] 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel output was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with October. [48] - **Demand**: The report shows the data of domestic stainless - steel monthly output, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Import and export**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss, but does not specifically summarize the import - export situation. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons. [57] - **Cost**: The report shows the data of domestic refined nickel production cost by raw material and production profit margin by process, but does not specifically summarize the cost situation. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the data of China's nickel sulfate output and net import volume, but does not specifically summarize the supply situation. - **Demand**: The report shows the data of ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor output, but does not specifically summarize the demand situation. - **Cost and price**: The report shows the data of battery - grade nickel sulfate production cost, price, and the production profit margin of main raw materials, but does not specifically summarize the cost - price situation. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the global supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecast from 2019 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded the demand, with the supply - demand surpluses being 82,900 tons, 53,200 tons, and 126,600 tons respectively. [74]

减产季节去库预期推动反弹 油脂月报 2025/12/05 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 供给端 06 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：11月三大油脂前期单边下跌，因马来西亚产量维持较高产量，且高频出口数据不佳。月末止跌反弹，印尼9月数据显示棕榈油环 比大幅减产，GAPKI发布数据显示印尼9月出口了220万吨棕榈油，9月出口量低于去年同期的226万吨，亦低于今年8月所出口的348万吨，棕 榈油及棕榈仁油产量则为430万吨，环比下降124万吨。棕榈油季节性去库预期引发油脂低位反弹。菜油方面因沿海油厂多数缺籽停机，菜油 库存持续去化，不过俄罗斯菜油及澳洲菜籽填补一定空缺，上方空间也承压。豆油则跟随震荡为主。 国际油脂：按往年正常水平产量及国际需求来看，来年一季度棕榈油将会进入快速去库节奏。今年马来西亚、印尼产量均同比偏大，一季度 是油脂需求淡季，若此时东南亚棕榈油产量仍维持高位，则预期中的去库可能会反转。不过当前印尼9月产量同环比下滑的数据提振 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the first half of the month traded on the logic of weak reality, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at high levels and spot prices accelerating their decline. At the end of the month, with the confirmation of news about Iranian plant maintenance, the market started to trade on the logic of expected improvement, and both spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded. The monthly spread and basis strengthened, and market expectations reversed [11]. - The supply side remained at a high level in November, with domestic methanol production reaching 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Affected by the decline in methanol spot prices, the profits of inland enterprises have returned to the seasonal neutral level. The arrival volume in November was 1.467 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume in December is expected to remain at a high level [11]. - On the demand side, olefin demand increased slightly, but there are expectations of port plant maintenance in the future, so there is a risk of demand decline. Traditional demand entered the off - season, showing overall weakness with generally low profit levels [11]. - In terms of valuation, with the realization of positive factors, both the basis and monthly spread have strengthened. The port MTO ratio first rose and then fell, currently at a neutral level. The overall valuation of methanol is relatively neutral [11]. - In November, port inventories decreased by nearly 140,000 tons, and the current inventory is 1.349 million tons, with the absolute inventory level still relatively high. Enterprise inventories decreased by 2,300 tons, and the current inventory is 360,000 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - After the positive factors were realized, the futures market fell into short - term consolidation again. With the high inventory, there is still pressure on prices. The market is expected to be mainly in low - level consolidation, and the strategy recommends waiting and seeing [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In November, the market first traded on weak reality and then on expected improvement. Spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, and market expectations reversed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: High supply, with domestic production at a high level and expected high arrival volume in December. Demand has risks of decline, especially for olefins due to potential port plant maintenance. Traditional demand is weak. Valuation is relatively neutral, and inventory levels are mixed, with high port inventory and low enterprise inventory [11]. - **Market Logic**: After the positive factors from overseas plant shutdowns were realized, the market fell into consolidation. There is still a risk of short - term weakening in the fundamentals, and high inventory exerts pressure on prices [11]. - **Strategy**: Recommend waiting and seeing [11]. 3.2 Period - Spot Market - The document provides multiple charts related to the methanol period - spot market, including the term structure, prices in Jiangsu, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the 01 contract and the total trading volume and open interest of methanol [20][22][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit - related**: Charts show the prices of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal, as well as the profit calculations of coal - based and gas - based methanol production in different regions [31][34][39]. - **Inventory - related**: Port inventory is showing a slowdown in destocking. There are also charts about regional inventories, including华东,华南, and enterprise inventories, as well as inventory projections and warehouse receipts [41][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Domestic and Overseas Production**: Charts show the domestic methanol operating rate, weekly production, and overseas methanol operating rate [50]. - **Import Volume**: There are charts about the import volume and its projection, as well as the import volume from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [52][56]. - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume has rebounded to a high level, with charts showing the arrival volume in China, East China, and South China [61][62][64]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts about import profits, international price spreads between China and other regions, and domestic regional price spreads [66][70]. - **Domestic Freight**: Charts show the freight prices of methanol transportation in different routes [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Charts show the consumption volume and ending inventory [82]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Include the operating rate of olefins, the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of related enterprises [84][85][89]. - **PP Production Profits**: Show the production profits of PP through different processes [93]. - **MTO - related Spreads**: Include spreads such as PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, etc. [96]. - **Other Downstream Products**: Include the operating rate and profit of acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, as well as the downstream demand proportion of methanol [104][106][109]. - **Downstream Inventory**: There is a chart about the inventory of downstream manufacturers [112]. - **Relative Prices**: Include the relative prices of methanol with urea, INE crude oil, power coal, and EG [114]. 3.6 Option - related - The document provides charts about the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of methanol options [118][120]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - There are charts about the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis [123][125].