Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy aims to repair corporate profits and reverse deflation expectations. Stainless steel and nickel prices have rebounded, but high stainless steel inventories and limited supply contraction restrict price increases. The nickel-iron price may be under continuous pressure, and the nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The price of the entire industry chain is expected to decline further [2][12][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel Price - Stainless steel prices have a profit repair expectation due to the long - term negative profit margin. As of July 25, 2025, the profit margin of domestic self - produced high - nickel iron enterprises producing 304 stainless steel dropped to - 6.02%. However, high inventory and high production strategies limit price increase elasticity. As of July 17, 2025, the national mainstream market stainless steel 89 - warehouse social total inventory was 1148000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. In July, the expected production reduction of 43 stainless steel plants was limited, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [5][6]. - In the long run, the weak demand side is the core reason for the low stainless steel price. Even if the supply side takes action, prices can only stop falling, not rise, until downstream demand significantly recovers [6]. Nickel - Iron and Nickel Price - The nickel - iron price may be under continuous pressure. Based on the weak stainless steel price forecast, the demand for nickel - iron is expected to have limited recovery, and the cost support for nickel - iron will weaken as the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen. The 2025 RKAB approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore is 364 million tons [12]. - The nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The short - term market price is still anchored to the RKEF conversion cost. The high premium of refined nickel over nickel - iron may lead to some production lines switching from nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte, increasing the potential supply of refined nickel and dragging down the nickel price [12]. Summary - Affected by the "anti - involution" action, nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the high stainless steel inventory and limited supply contraction make it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The ore price is expected to continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to stainless steel production reduction and demand - stimulating policies [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, shows a bullish and oscillating upward market trend [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually decreases and fluctuates at a relatively low level [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct covered strategies, neutral double - selling strategies, and vertical spread combination strategies; for index options, neutral double - selling strategies and arbitrage strategies between synthetic long or short options and long or short futures are appropriate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 12.07 points or 0.33%, with a trading volume of 821.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.6 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 24.92 points or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 965.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.7 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 16.93 points or 0.60%, with a trading volume of 114 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 21.87 points or 0.53%, with a trading volume of 430.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.6 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 5.99 points or 0.10%, with a trading volume of 304.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.8 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6,706.61, up 5.49 points or 0.08%, with a trading volume of 363.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.3 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 2.916, down 0.017 or 0.58%, with a trading volume of 5.7256 million shares and a turnover of 1.671 billion yuan, an increase of 0.095 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.203, down 0.022 or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 8.2009 million shares and a turnover of 3.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.277 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 6.365, up 0.002 or 0.03%, with a trading volume of 3.1757 million shares and a turnover of 2.019 billion yuan, an increase of 0.71 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.109, up 0.023 or 2.12%, with a trading volume of 48.4149 million shares and a turnover of 5.301 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.082, up 0.022 or 2.08%, with a trading volume of 11.3537 million shares and a turnover of 1.212 billion yuan, an increase of 0.381 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.338, down 0.022 or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 1.3561 million shares and a turnover of 0.589 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.018 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.543, down 0.002 or 0.08%, with a trading volume of 1.7068 million shares and a turnover of 0.434 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0246 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 2.932, down 0.014 or 0.48%, with a trading volume of 0.3065 million shares and a turnover of 0.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.022 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 2.318, down 0.007 or 0.30%, with a trading volume of 7.6103 million shares and a turnover of 1.763 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.623 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Volume and position PCR data for various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - Pressure and support points for various option varieties are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility [11][12]. 3.6 Strategies and Recommendations - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks. Different strategies are recommended for each sector [13]. - For example, in the financial stock sector (Shanghai 50 ETF and Shanghai 50), directional strategies include constructing bullish call option spread combinations, and volatility strategies include constructing neutral seller strategies [14]. - Similar strategy recommendations are provided for other sectors such as large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each selected option variety, the report provides analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9]. - Overall, it is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, along with their price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2509 is 502, down 7 (-1.32%), with a trading volume of 15.26 million lots and an open interest of 4.00 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are given, which can be used to analyze the strength of the market and the turning points of the underlying assets. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.48, and the open interest PCR is 0.53 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for each option variety are determined from the exercise prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.53% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market is weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The short - term market is bearish. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The market is weak with resistance above. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is weakly bullish with resistance above. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - For polyolefins such as polypropylene, it is recommended to hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The market is in a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - For polyester options such as PTA, it is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The market has resistance above and is in a downward trend. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has resistance above and is in a significant decline. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - The market is in a range - bound under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy as they are oscillating weakly [2]. - For the black series, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy after a significant drop following continuous rise [2]. - For precious metals, construct a spot hedging strategy as they are oscillating at a high level and have declined [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2509) is priced at 78,800, down 530 or 0.67% with a trading volume of 8.81 million lots and an open interest of 18.08 million lots [3]. - Aluminum (AL2509) is at 20,615, down 135 or 0.65% with a volume of 14.36 million lots and an open interest of 30.20 million lots [3]. - Multiple other metal futures are also presented with their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - Copper's volume PCR is 0.64 (change: 0.25), and position PCR is 0.64 (change: - 0.04) [4]. - Aluminum's volume PCR is 0.59 (change: - 0.19), and position PCR is 0.78 (change: - 0.13) [4]. - Similar data for other metal options are provided [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5]. - Aluminum's pressure point is 21,000 and support point is 20,000 [5]. - Pressure and support levels for other metals are also given [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.15%, weighted implied volatility is 18.78% (change: 0.15) [6]. - Aluminum's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.57%, weighted implied volatility is 14.68% (change: - 0.17) [6]. - Implied volatility data for other metals are presented [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [8][9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Implement a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a short - volatility strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Adopt a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Build a short - volatility strategy with a neutral bias and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: Implement a bull - spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Adopt a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's monetary policy is expected to turn dovish during the July FOMC meeting, and the rate - cut amplitude this year may exceed market expectations. There is a possibility of an unexpected rate cut. Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually turn loose, and the subsequent rate - cut amplitude may exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset in the precious metals strategy, with a focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.45% to 773.84 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 2.17% to 9169.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold dropped 0.11% to 3331.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver dropped 0.14% to 38.31 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US Dollar Index was 97.61 [2] - Other price data includes Au(T + D) at 773.61 yuan/gram, a 0.19% drop; Ag(T + D) at 9372.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.22% increase; London Gold at 3343.50 dollars/ounce, a 0.66% drop; London Silver at 38.74 dollars/ounce, a 0.74% drop. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.60 tons to 15230.43 tons, a 0.15% increase [4] Market Outlook - This week, the Fed will hold the July FOMC meeting. The market expects a 95.9% probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged and a 4.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The market also prices in 25 - basis - point rate cuts in the September and December FOMC meetings. Trump's visit to the Fed and his remarks suggest a possible dovish stance from the Fed, with the possibility of an unexpected rate cut [2] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 3338.50 dollars/ounce, a 0.97% drop; trading volume was 19.32 million lots, a 6.52% drop; open interest increased by 9.12% to 48.94 million lots; inventory increased by 0.39% to 1175 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) was 777.32 yuan/gram, a 0.18% drop; trading volume was 23.81 million lots, a 45.61% drop; open interest dropped by 0.40% to 42.27 million lots; inventory increased by 3.07% to 30.26 tons [7] - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 38.33 dollars/ounce, a 2.44% drop; open interest increased by 1.29% to 17.37 million lots; inventory increased by 0.51% to 15562 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) was 9392.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.06% increase; trading volume was 97.02 million lots, a 39.34% drop; open interest dropped by 1.31% to 95.20 million lots; inventory dropped by 0.12% to 1187.25 tons [7] Price and Volume Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing the relationship between the price, trading volume, and open interest of gold and silver in different markets (COMEX, SHFE, etc.), as well as the relationship between gold prices and the US Dollar Index, real interest rates, and the net long positions of managed funds [9][12][17] Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On July 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 5.33 yuan/gram (23.14 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.11 yuan/gram (22.16 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 573.66 yuan/kilogram (2.49 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 582.96 yuan/kilogram (2.53 dollars/ounce) [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The overall market shows that oil and fat - related agricultural products are in a strong - biased oscillatory state, oils and agricultural by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodity sugar rebounds and rises in an oscillatory manner, cotton shows a bullish upward trend, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation state. [2][8] - Strategies suggest constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,208, with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.36%, trading volume of 10.13 million lots, and an increase in open interest of 0.29 million lots. [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of volume and open interest for different option varieties are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.53 with a change of 0.19, and the open interest PCR is 0.46 with a change of - 0.00. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4300 and the support level is 4100, which are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, average annual implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.86%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.59% with a change of 0.97%. [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oil and Oilseed Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: - **Fundamentals**: USDA's July report maintains the soybean production in the 25/26 season at about 118 million tons, with an increase in crushing volume and a decrease in exports, resulting in an increase in inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio. - **Market Analysis**: Soybean No.1 shows an oversold rebound pattern. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4300 and 4100 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: - **Fundamentals**: The purchase volume of soybean meal in different months is provided. - **Market Analysis**: Soybean meal shows a pattern of decline, consolidation, and then rebound. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is slightly above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3100 and 2900 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to decline, and production is increasing. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil shows a bullish upward trend. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility of palm oil is decreasing to below the historical average, open interest PCR is above 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 10000 and 8000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bull - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [10] - **Peanuts**: - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of peanuts in the Northeast is stable, imports are decreasing, and the inventory is still high. - **Market Analysis**: Peanuts show a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 9000 and 8000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; for spot hedging, hold a long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options. [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Hogs**: - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of hogs is falling, slaughter volume is high, and demand is average. - **Market Analysis**: Hogs show a pattern of small - scale upward movement under bearish pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising to above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 18000 and 13600 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + sell out - of - the - money call options. [11] - **Eggs**: - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices are rising and then stabilizing, affected by high - temperature weather. - **Market Analysis**: Eggs show a pattern of weak consolidation with upper pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4000 and 3400 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [12] - **Apples**: - **Fundamentals**: The estimated apple production is increasing, and the inventory in cold storage is decreasing. - **Market Analysis**: Apples show a pattern of weak bearishness gradually rebounding. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is slightly above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 8900 and 7000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [12] - **Jujubes**: - **Fundamentals**: The arrival volume and price of jujubes in the market are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Jujubes show a pattern of rebound, rise, and then decline. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising to above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 11400 and 9000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - biased strangle option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + sell out - of - the - money call options. [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: - **Fundamentals**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Sugar shows a pattern of oversold rebound. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is around 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 5900 and 5700 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [13] - **Cotton**: - **Fundamentals**: The growth conditions of American cotton are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton shows a pattern of rebound and then consolidation. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is decreasing to a low level, open interest PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 15000 and 13000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bullish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bull - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options. [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: - **Fundamentals**: The price and inventory conditions of corn in different regions are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Corn shows a pattern of bearish downward movement. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2320 and 2300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Copper**: This week, several major macro - events are approaching. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. However, due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, copper prices are expected to be limited in their upward movement and will mainly fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for SHFE copper is 77,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic black - series commodities have peaked and declined, and the approaching effective date of US new tariffs has cooled market sentiment. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports aluminum prices, the off - season in downstream demand and the weakening export demand limit the upward movement of aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 dollars/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the procurement of downstream battery manufacturers is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the month - to - month spread may strengthen. Currently, prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [4]. - **Zinc**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply remains loose, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are on the rise. In the short - term, the Fed's dovish stance has raised expectations of monetary easing, and there are still structural risks overseas. Prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [6]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is at a low level, and demand is also weak, showing a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline due to weak demand. Although the price of nickel - iron has stabilized and strengthened, there is still an oversupply pressure. The price of refined nickel is driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. In the context of high stainless - steel inventory, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The news from the mining end has strengthened the bullish sentiment, but the actual fundamentals have not reversed. The spot market is cautious. Due to the high risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously. The expected trading range for the main contract on the GZEE is 76,500 - 81,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. With the decline in the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market and the expected alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot goods, it is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3,050 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel has tightened, and demand has shown signs of recovery, with an optimized supply - demand structure. However, the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been substantially improved [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the upward pressure on prices is large due to the weakening commodity market atmosphere and the large difference between futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper rose 0.02% to 9,796 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, LME inventory increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 0.2 tons [1]. - **Spot**: The LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton. The supply of domestic spot goods increased, and on Friday, the spot in Shanghai had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures [1]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap spread was 840 yuan/ton on Friday. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - **Copper Rod**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises declined [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: SHFE aluminum main contract rose 1.22% (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum fell 0.27% to 2,631 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.8 to 51.0 tons, and bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.5 to 11.1 tons. Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 1.1 to 14.6 tons [3]. - **Spot**: On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.36% to 16,958 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 2.5 to 2,030.5 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.93 tons. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.58 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of primary lead production decreased slightly, while that of recycled lead production increased from a low level. The price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 dollars/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1.33 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.69 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly [6]. Tin - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tin ore supply recovery in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end still faces raw - material supply pressure, and the operating rate is at a low level [7]. - **Demand**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, and overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly to 10,096 tons as of July 25, 2025 [7]. Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore fell. The procurement of smelters decreased, and the price of wet - process nickel ore remained stable [8]. - **Nickel Iron**: The market sentiment improved slightly, and prices stabilized and strengthened. There is still an oversupply pressure [8]. - **Refined Nickel**: The price was driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. Spot trading was cold [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory decreased by 1.43% to 24.3 tons. China's inventory increased, and LME's decreased [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 2.67% on Friday and 16.71% for the week. The LC2509 contract rose 5.01% and 15.09% for the week [12]. - **Spot**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.70% [12]. - **Mining**: The price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate increased by 8.86% and 17.81% for the week [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 0.12% to 3,410 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.69 tons, at a historical low [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 13,030 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [16]. - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly [16]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron, 304 scrap steel, and high - carbon ferrochrome remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 111.86 tons, with a 2.54% week - on - week decrease [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton (as of Friday's close) [19]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.6 to 4.3 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.1 tons [19]. - **Production**: The production of cast aluminum alloy was about 14.2 tons, with ADC12 production at about 8.0 tons, a slight increase [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the anti - "involution" policy drove up the stock prices of related sectors, coupled with the rebound of the large - financial sector, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually materializing. Domestically, attention should be focused on the expectations of the "Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee" in July, with anti - "involution" expected to be one of the important themes. Strategically, opportunities for market style rotation should be monitored, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, the release of the "Rural Highway Regulations", power consumption growth, state - owned asset optimization, potential innovation in the Sci - tech Innovation Board, possible large - scale redemptions of bond funds, and Trump's proposed tariff policy [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, with positive performance in consumption, industrial added value, and exports. However, the real estate sector continued to decline, and there was still significant pressure to stabilize prices. The social financing scale and money supply showed certain growth [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: The 10Y treasury and credit bond interest rates rebounded synchronously, with unchanged credit spreads. The DR007 interest rate rebounded seasonally at the end of the month, and liquidity tightened temporarily [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to its medium - to - low valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for six months as a new round of interest rate cuts may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Market Indexes**: Data for major indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are not available. The AH ratio was 123.52, down 2.19% from 126.28 [14]. - **Futures Contracts**: Data for various stock index futures contracts including IF, IH, IC, and IM are not available [15]. - **Volume and Ratio Analysis**: Multiple charts show historical data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and contract ratios of stock index futures [17][19][21][23][28][30]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q2 GDP actual growth was 5.2%. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. Consumption growth slowed to 4.8%. Exports remained resilient with a 5.8% year - on - year increase. Investment growth was 2.8%, with declines in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment [35][38][41]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate of all A - share non - financial listed companies slightly declined compared to Q4 but was still higher than Q3 last year. The operating net cash flow increased year - on - year and improved compared to Q4, mainly due to reduced inventory [44]. 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield and 3 - year AA - corporate bond yield are presented in charts. The DR007 interest rate and 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, along with reverse repurchase volume, show liquidity and policy rate trends. Sino - US 10 - year bond interest rates and spreads, as well as the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates, are also analyzed [47][50][52]. - **Credit Environment**: In June 2025, M1 growth was 4.6% and M2 growth was 8.3%. The social financing increment was 4.20 trillion yuan, with government bonds and corporate short - term loans being the main contributors [57]. 5. Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, the new share issuance of equity - biased funds was 194 million shares, and the net margin purchase was 392 million yuan [63][66]. - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase in holdings of 3883 million yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 1 [69]. 6. Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai 50 was 11.41, the CSI 300 was 13.51, the CSI 500 was 30.73, and the CSI 1000 was 40.26. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of the Shanghai 50 was 1.26, the CSI 300 was 1.42, the CSI 500 was 2.06, and the CSI 1000 was 2.29 [73].