文字早评 202512/04 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、法国总统马克龙抵达北京 开启第四次对华国事访问; 2、在推动人工智能之后 特朗普政府开始关注机器人； 3、夜盘铜、锡等有色金属价格大涨； 4、美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最低水平，预估为增加 5000 人，前值为 增加 4.2 万人。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.64%/-1.07%/-2.15%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-1.47%/-3.07%/-6.06%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.73%/-1.75%/-3.86%/-7.14%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.16%/-0.38%/-0.40%/-0.88%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 113.610 ，环比变化-0.25%；T 主力合约收于 108.040 ，环比变 化 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the potential bullish factor of Iranian plant shutdown has materialized, and the market is expected to bottom out in the short - term. However, high supply will limit its upward space, and it's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for the inter - month spread [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply high and demand improving, it's advisable to consider long positions at low prices [5]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with either waiting and seeing or short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is poor, but with short - term low valuation and cost increase, a mid - term short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - demand situation to change in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, expect a slight inventory build - up in December, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [28]. - For PTA, pay attention to long - buying opportunities based on expectations, as the supply is expected to stabilize and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.15% decline, at 448.10 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories all increased week - on - week [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is small with supply not expanding, short - term oil prices should not be overly shorted. Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, remained stable in Lunan, and increased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 4 yuan, at 2128 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 14, at - 86 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential bullish factor of Iranian plant shutdown has materialized, and the market is expected to bottom out in the short - term. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting its upward space. Wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for the inter - month spread [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, increased by 10 in Henan, and by 20 in Hubei. The 01 contract increased by 5 yuan, at 1692 yuan, with a basis of - 22. The spread increased by 9, at - 56 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Supply remains high, and demand has improved. Consider long positions at low prices [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, reducing potential bullish factors. Exchange RU inventory and warehouse receipts are low. The fundamental driving force is weakening, and it follows macro - fluctuations. There are different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory operating rates are weak, and inventories have increased. Social inventories of natural rubber have increased [9][10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral approach, either wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 34 yuan, at 4541 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, at 4500 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41 (increased by 24). The 1 - 5 spread was - 273 (increased by 5). The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate increased. Demand - side operating rates increased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, but with short - term low valuation and cost increase, a mid - term short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with an expanding basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates decreased, and port inventories increased. Demand - side operating rates showed mixed trends [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 23 yuan/ton, at 6808 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, at 6840 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates decreased slightly, and weekly inventories decreased. Downstream average operating rates increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 28 yuan/ton, at 6382 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, at 6430 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis. Upstream operating rates increased, and weekly inventories decreased. Downstream average operating rates increased slightly, and the LL - PP spread increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, wait for the supply - demand situation to change in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan, at 6872 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 848 dollars. The basis was 44 yuan (+12), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (-4). Chinese and Asian operating rates decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or load reduction. Imports from South Korea decreased in November. Inventories increased in October. Valuation and cost indicators showed some changes [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4730 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan, at 4700 yuan. The basis was - 35 yuan (-2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (unchanged). The operating rate increased, and downstream operating rates increased slightly. Terminal operating rates showed different trends. Social inventories decreased in November. Spot and futures processing fees changed [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities based on expectations, as the supply is expected to stabilize and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 55 yuan, at 3822 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 42 yuan, at 3840 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (+1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan (+1). Supply - side operating rates increased, with some domestic and overseas plants having changes in operations. Downstream operating rates increased slightly, and terminal operating rates showed different trends. Import forecasts and port inventories increased. Valuation and cost indicators showed different trends [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in such a market condition [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial - long seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, it is suitable to construct a partial - long seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,897.71, down 16.29 points or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 627.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 158.2 billion yuan [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,056.70, down 90.02 points or 0.68%, with a trading volume of 966 billion yuan, a decrease of 122.3 billion yuan [3]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,978.47, down 15.21 points or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 79.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.6 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,554.33, down 22.15 points or 0.48%, with a trading volume of 364.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.5 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,040.30, down 61.53 points or 0.87%, with a trading volume of 247.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.2 billion yuan [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,313.18, down 73.50 points or 1.00%, with a trading volume of 320.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 72.1 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.122, down 0.015 or 0.48%, with a trading volume of 4.7913 million lots, an increase of 4.7157 million lots, and a trading value of 1.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.865 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.666, down 0.021 or 0.45%, with a trading volume of 3.8344 million lots, an increase of 3.7766 million lots, and a trading value of 1.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.908 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 500 ETF closed at 7.141, down 0.061 or 0.85%, with a trading volume of 1.5037 million lots, an increase of 1.4905 million lots, and a trading value of 1.074 billion yuan, an increase of 0.127 billion yuan [4]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.387, down 0.017 or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 20.4745 million lots, an increase of 20.2583 million lots, and a trading value of 2.845 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.166 billion yuan [4]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.343, down 0.017 or 1.25%, with a trading volume of 7.0641 million lots, an increase of 6.9905 million lots, and a trading value of 0.951 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.043 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.810, down 0.023 or 0.48%, with a trading volume of 1.5974 million lots, an increase of 1.5872 million lots, and a trading value of 0.768 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0276 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.851, down 0.023 or 0.80%, with a trading volume of 0.6382 million lots, an increase of 0.6317 million lots, and a trading value of 0.182 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.0004 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.401, down 0.017 or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 0.5632 million lots, an increase of 0.5573 million lots, and a trading value of 0.0192 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.0009 billion yuan [4]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.052, down 0.021 or 0.68%, with a trading volume of 6.2322 million lots, an increase of 6.1318 million lots, and a trading value of 1.905 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and position PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5][6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [7][9]. 3.5 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility, and their changes [10][11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Each board selects some varieties for option strategy suggestions [12]. - For each option variety, the option strategy report is written according to the underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [12]. - Specific strategies for different sectors: - Financial stocks (Shanghai 50 ETF): Build a partial - neutral seller combination strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [13]. - Large - cap blue - chip stocks (Shanghai 300 ETF, Shenzhen 300 ETF, etc.): Build a short - volatility strategy of selling call + put options and a spot long covered call strategy [13][14]. - Medium - sized stocks (Shenzhen 100 ETF): Build a short - volatility strategy of selling call + put options and a spot long covered call strategy [14]. - Small - and medium - sized stocks (Shanghai 500 ETF, Shenzhen 500 ETF, CSI 1000): Build a short - volatility strategy of selling call + put options and a spot long covered call strategy [14][15]. - ChiNext board (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF): Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot long covered call strategy [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. The price is expected to operate within a fluctuating range, and changes in the overall commodity environment should be noted [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. Looking for opportunities to rebound may be more cost - effective than short - selling [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak short - term operation, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. Its price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties [14]. - For polysilicon, the current situation remains weak. There are uncertainties in the delivery game of near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of platform companies [17]. - For glass, the industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [20]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should still be regarded as bearish before the demand side shows significant improvement [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3325 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day [1]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar's supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel will affect exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.47% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments were stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The daily average hot - metal output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate was at a low level. Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On December 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5722 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.33% at 5448 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys continued to be weak. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8975 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.86% (- 170). The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable in the short term, and the export of silicon - aluminum alloy decreased significantly [14]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 56315 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.41% (- 1390). The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3965 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve [17]. Glass - **Price Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1034 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of - 0.19% (- 2). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side has shrunk, but the overall spot market trading atmosphere is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of + 0.60% (+ 7). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [21]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The industry's operating load increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly oscillating, oils and by - products maintain an oscillating market, soft commodity sugar has a slight oscillation, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias. The strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly composed of sellers, as well as a spot hedging or covered strategy to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,121, down 6 with a decline of 0.15%, trading volume of 8.92 million lots, and open interest of 18.78 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Open - Interest PCR - The quantity and open - interest PCR of various agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the open - interest PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.92, down 0.05 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various agricultural product options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 4200 and the support point is 4000 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.995%, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.87%, down 0.05 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Products 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation shows that China's soybean purchases have advanced, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level. The market trend is a rebound after a decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean meal**: The oil mill's operating rate is about 61.41%. The market shows a weak rebound after a decline. Option strategies involve constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports have decreased. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish put option spread strategy, a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation stage. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. The option strategy is to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Live pig**: The average weight of live pig slaughter has increased. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Egg**: The domestic egg price has a slight increase, and the supply is sufficient. The market shows a volatile rebound. Option strategies involve constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy [11] - **Apple**: The new - season apple storage is coming to an end, and the storage volume is less than last year. The market is in a high - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: The new - season jujube has a strong expected production cut, and the inventory pressure is large. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started production has decreased. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies involve constructing a bearish call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate is stable, and the cotton commercial inventory has increased. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The corn inventory in northern ports is accumulating, and the trading volume is light. The market shows a weak rebound. Option strategies involve constructing a bullish call + put option selling combination strategy [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The weaker-than-expected key economic data in the US has further increased the market's pricing for the Fed's loose monetary policy. The ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating a weak performance in the US manufacturing industry and increasing the market's pricing for overseas recession expectations [1]. - If Hassett is nominated as the new Fed Chairman, the market will further trade on the impact of the weakened independence and influence of the Fed on the US dollar's credit, which is why the price of silver, a monetary metal, is showing strength [2]. - The current silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. It is expected that the price may still rise significantly during the week. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit-taking is required. Opening new long positions or shorting at high levels at this stage carry significant risks. Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.85% to 953.82 yuan/g, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.10% to 13,640.00 yuan/kg. COMEX Gold was reported at 4,238.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 59.15 US dollars/ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.09%, and the US dollar index was 99.33 [1]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 4,238.70 US dollars/ounce, down 0.62%; trading volume was 21.21 million lots, down 5.10%; open interest was 48.58 million lots, up 0.05%; inventory remained unchanged at 1,128 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold's closing price (active contract) was 958.42 yuan/g, down 0.50%; trading volume was 38.63 million lots, down 8.54%; open interest was 34.22 million lots, down 0.59%; inventory remained unchanged at 90.87 tons; the settled funds outflow was 1.09% to 52.473 billion yuan. The closing price of Au(T+D) was 954.69 yuan/g, down 0.37%; trading volume was 45.46 tons, down 25.02%; open interest was 224.46 tons, down 2.69% [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 59.15 US dollars/ounce, up 1.20%; open interest was 17.24 million lots, up 3.57%; inventory was 14,181 tons, down 0.01%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 13,423.00 yuan/kg, up 1.09%; trading volume was 342.78 million lots, down 5.29%; open interest was 79.11 million lots, down 1.03%; inventory was 594.63 tons, up 3.65%; the settled funds inflow was 0.05% to 28.671 billion yuan. The closing price of Ag(T+D) was 13,398.00 yuan/kg, up 1.03%; trading volume was 894.35 tons, down 44.07%; open interest was 3,969.488 tons, up 0.05% [4]. Fed Chairman Nomination - Hassett has expressed his willingness to serve if nominated as the Fed Chairman. Trump has hinted that Hassett will be the new Fed Chairman and will announce the nomination early next year [2].

专题报告 2025-12-03 氧化铝：海外铝土矿供应分析 报告要点： 核心观点：铝土矿价格短期将承压，关注进口成本支撑 当前冶炼端供应过剩格局持续，叠加明年仍有较多新建产能待投产，过剩趋势短期较难逆 转，因此成本端铝土矿价格成为了决定氧化铝底部的核心因素。今年以来，随着几内亚和非主 流国家铝土矿项目的持续达产，中国进口海外铝土矿大幅增加。截止今年 10 月，中国累计进 口铝土矿 17140 万吨，同比去年增长 30.11%，其中主要增量国包括几内亚、圭亚那、马来西亚、 巴西，澳洲小幅下滑。 尽管前期因雨季影响，铝土矿价格出现阶段性反弹，但随着近期发运恢复，铝土矿价格开 始震荡下行。铝土矿价格反转需依赖于海外供应大规模收缩，几内亚铝土矿的进口成本成为关 键的价格支撑位。根据阿拉丁调研了解，几内亚铝土矿 FOB 成本在 20-50 美元/吨区间，40 美 金成本是较为密集的价位，包括了运营成本、税收和陆地运输成本。几内亚至中国海运费目前 则在 20-25 美元/吨区间波动，西芒杜铁矿石投产后或将推动海运费走强。综合来看，60 美元 -65 美元预计会成为几内亚铝土矿 CIF 价格较为有力的支撑，对应氧化铝价格成 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, although the recent market rotation has accelerated and risk appetite has decreased, policies still support the capital market, and technology growth remains the main market trend. The medium - and long - term strategy for indices is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, the manufacturing PMI in November showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service sector was weak, and the end - of - year social financing growth rate may remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market will generally maintain a volatile trend [6]. - In the precious metals market, silver is in an accelerated upward phase, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to take profit in time if the price weakens. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high levels. Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper, aluminum, lead, and other metals are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends, while zinc is expected to fluctuate widely, and nickel is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][13][15][18]. - In the black building materials market, steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range. Glass and soda ash are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to be bearish on soda ash in the short term [30][32][34][35]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term view on oil prices is not overly bearish, and a range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained. Methanol is expected to turn to a volatile adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. Urea is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations [52][53][55]. - In the agricultural products market, for pigs, it is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. For eggs, a short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended. For soybeans and soybean meal, they are expected to fluctuate, and for palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [75][77][80][83]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Zheng Shanjie proposed to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution. Five departments encouraged local governments to provide convenience and discounts in computing power, algorithms, and data. Morgan Stanley raised its production forecasts for Google's TPU in 2027 and 2028 [2]. - **Strategy View**: The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is the main market trend. The medium - and long - term strategy for indices is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS declined. In November 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased, and Trump seemed to favor Hassett as the Fed chairman. The central bank conducted 1563 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1458 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The manufacturing PMI in November showed an overall improvement, but the service sector was weak. The end - of - year social financing growth rate may remain weak. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve, and the market will generally maintain a volatile trend [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.85%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.10%. US economic data was weaker than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Trump's hint that Hassett would be the Fed chairman affected the price of silver [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: Silver is in an accelerated upward phase, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. Gold is in a breakthrough pattern at the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB was strong, and the domestic equity market declined. The LME copper 3M contract fell 0.78%, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 88,590 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market is more focused on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The LME aluminum closed down 0.85%, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,840 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is in a downward trend, and the price center of aluminum is expected to rise further [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.69%, and the LME zinc 3S rose 24. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry's weak fundamentals do not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the medium term [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.75%, and the LME lead 3S rose 22.5. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased marginally [16]. - **Strategy View**: The lead market has no major contradictions. In the Fed's rate - cut cycle, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.17%. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy View**: The pressure of nickel oversupply remains large, but nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.35%. The supply of tin concentrate has improved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but there is long - term demand in emerging fields [19]. - **Strategy View**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, supply disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index fell 0.95%, and the LC2605 contract fell 0.39% [21]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but the medium - term demand expectation is highly divergent. It is recommended to wait and see or use options [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 0.22%. The Shandong spot price fell 5 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 22 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is high, the demand is improving marginally, but the cost pressure is high. Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The AD2601 contract fell 0.14%. The domestic inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and the supply is affected by policies. If the inventory continues to decrease, the price is expected to rise [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar main contract fell 0.03%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.06%. The export of steel to South Korea will be affected by anti - dumping duties [29][30]. - **Strategy View**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts and important meetings [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.06%. The spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton [31]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipments were stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a volatile range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell 0.19%, and the soda ash main contract rose 0.60%. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory decreased [33][35]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is in a bottom - exploring stage, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash price is expected to be stable in the short term, but it is recommended to be bearish before the demand improves [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract fell 0.03%, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.33%. The black market was weak, and the iron alloy was affected [36]. - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. The iron alloy is affected by the weak coke market, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.86%, and the polysilicon main contract fell 2.41%. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices are easily affected by market sentiment. The polysilicon market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell, and the technical pattern was broken. The flood in Thailand receded, and the fundamentals of rubber were weak. The tire factory's operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [46][48]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures rose 0.09%, and the refined oil futures had different trends. The Chinese crude oil inventory increased, and the gasoline inventory decreased [51]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price in Taicang rose 14, and the 01 contract fell 4. The market stopped falling and stabilized [53]. - **Strategy View**: The potential bullish factors in Iran are being realized. The market is expected to turn to a volatile adjustment after the bullish factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [53]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the 01 contract rose 12. The market was in a bottom - building stage [54]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to gradually break out of the bottom range. It is recommended to go long on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene futures rose. The supply of pure benzene was wide, and the inventory of styrene increased [56]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reverses [57]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22, and the cost was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [58]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic PVC market has a strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 5, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply is still high [61]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 10, and the inventory decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable [63]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 18, and the inventory increased. The PX load is high, and the downstream demand is weak [65]. - **Strategy View**: The PX is expected to accumulate inventory slightly in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE main contract rose 28, and the inventory decreased. The supply is limited, and the demand is in the off - season [67]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP main contract rose 13, and the inventory decreased. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonal [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PP market has a weak supply - demand situation. It may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price was weak, and the supply increased while the demand growth was limited [74]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or fell, and the inventory increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy View**: The far - month egg price is strong, and the near - month price is affected by inventory and consumption. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [77]. Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fluctuated, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased. The global soybean supply is expected to decrease, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is good [79]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production was volatile. The domestic oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil market may reverse if the Indonesian production decreases. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the spot price decreased. The production of sugar in India and Brazil increased [84]. - **Strategy View**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and the spot price increased. The global cotton production is expected to increase, and the domestic demand is stable [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the probability of a trend - following market is low [88].

金属期权 2025-12-03 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | ...