Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyesters (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and other energy - chemical products like rubber [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various underlying futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 450, with a price change of - 3 and a change rate of - 0.75% [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different option varieties are provided, along with their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.47 with a change of - 0.09, and the open interest PCR is 0.69 with a change of - 0.05 [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are given for each option variety. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540 and the support point is 430 [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.915, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.07 with a change of 1.12 [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and recovered. Shale oil production has slightly declined. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, and Russian exports are not blocked. Kuwait's refinery has resumed earlier than expected, weakening the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8] - Market analysis: Crude oil prices showed a short - term weak and volatile trend in August, continued to be weak and bearish in September before gradually rebounding, fell sharply in October before rebounding, and showed a complex trend of shock, rebound, and then sharp decline in November [8] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 540 and the support point is 430 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy - construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long collar strategy [8] Energy - related Options (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a high level. Crude oil prices are affected by supply surplus and geopolitical issues [10] - Market analysis: LPG prices showed a trend of rising and then falling in September, rebounding in October, and continued to rise in November, showing a pattern of rebound and consolidation after an oversold situation [10] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure point is 4500 and the support point is 4150 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy - none; Volatility strategy - construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long collar strategy [10] Alcohol - related Options (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year [10] - Market analysis: Methanol prices have been weak since August, showed a rebound after a low - level consolidation in September, and continued to be weak in October and November [10] - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure point is 2300 and the support point is 2000 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy - construct a bear spread portfolio of put options; Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long collar strategy [10] Other Options (Ethylene Glycol, Polypropylene, Rubber, PTA, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Urea) - Similar analysis frameworks are used for these options, including fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, option factor research, and corresponding strategy recommendations [11][12][13][14] Group 7: Charts - There are various charts for different option varieties, such as price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest - PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support point charts [15][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions and provides strategy views for various non - ferrous metals. Overall, influenced by factors such as geopolitics, Fed's interest - rate decisions, supply - demand relationships in the industry, and cost factors, different metals show different price trends. Some metals are expected to be strong, some will be in a wide - range shock, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and price range references for each metal [5][7][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB remained strong, domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices oscillated and corrected. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the spot import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread widened [4]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. With an increased probability of interest - rate cuts, sentiment is positive. The copper raw - material supply remains tight, and smelting production - cut expectations drive copper prices higher. Short - term supply is expected to increase marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range for Shanghai copper's main contract is 88,000 - 89,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,000 - 11,300 dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventory changes varied. The spot in the domestic market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading sentiment was weak [6]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories are in a downward trend, and the inventory levels are relatively low. Coupled with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the strong performance of copper prices, the center of aluminum price movement is expected to rise further. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum's main contract is 21,760 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 175.01 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore increased, the operating rate of primary smelting decreased, and that of secondary smelting increased. Downstream battery enterprises' operating rates increased marginally, and domestic visible lead ingot inventory decreased. After two weeks of decline, lead prices returned to the 17,000 - yuan shock center. Fed's interest - rate cuts make the non - ferrous metal industry sentiment positive, and short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased, and domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased. However, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly after considering in - transit and factory inventories. The LME zinc monthly spread increased again [11]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased, but zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Downstream operating rates decreased marginally. Although domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, the overall supply is still in a surplus situation. In the short term, the increase in the LME zinc monthly spread drives zinc prices higher, but in the medium term, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. In October, domestic tin concentrate imports increased significantly, but the conflict in the DRC worsened, affecting tin ore transportation. Yunnan's smelting enterprises still faced raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi's refined tin production remained low. Traditional consumption areas were weak, but emerging areas provided long - term support. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was reluctant to buy at high prices, and inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Short - term tin prices are likely to be in a strong shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 38,000 - 41,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and the decline in nickel - iron prices slowed down [15]. - **Strategy View**: The surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel - iron prices and the warming of the macro - environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a shock. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the trends of nickel - iron and ore prices. The short - term operating range for Shanghai nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the LC2605 contract price also decreased. The average battery - grade lithium carbonate premium in the trading market was - 450 yuan [18]. - **Strategy View**: In December, the production schedules of major cathode - material enterprises were mostly flat month - on - month, and domestic lithium carbonate production increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but there are large differences in medium - and long - term demand expectations. The price is likely to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, raw - material prices were stable, futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: On the supply side, steel - mill production schedules are high, and spot arrivals are increasing. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement. However, the high cost of nickel - iron squeezes corporate profits. Although demand has recovered, the inventory pressure from high supply is still significant. The short - term stainless - steel price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast - aluminum alloy price oscillated. The main AD2601 contract price decreased slightly, the weighted contract position rebounded, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened, domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and policy disruptions on the supply side continue. If the inventory continues to decline, the price of cast - aluminum alloy is expected to rise in a shock [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support intention by observing price drops and export declines [3] - For methanol, with the potential bullish factors from Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom may have emerged. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting further upside. Suggest waiting and observing for single - side trading and looking for positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [6] - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply at a relatively high level and demand improving, the downside is limited. Consider buying on dips [8][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral stance, suggest waiting and observing or short - term quick - in - and - out trading. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation is low and costs are rising. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium term [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits [19] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25] - For PX, expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Look for buying opportunities on dips [28] - For PTA, with supply and demand stabilizing, look for buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29][30] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. Suggest shorting on rallies [31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.09%, to 453.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 5.00 yuan/ton, or 0.20%, to 2469.00 yuan/ton. Low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 19.00 yuan/ton, or 0.63%, to 3035.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.30 million barrels to 207.78 million barrels, a 0.14% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 85.30 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 91.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.01 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels, a 0.00% increase [2] - **Strategy View**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and observe, waiting for signs of OPEC's export price - support intention [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 14, Lunan by 45, Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 - contract on the market fell 4 yuan to 2132 yuan/ton, with the basis at par. The 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 100 [5] - **Strategy View**: The short - term bottom may have emerged. Supply is expected to remain high, limiting further upside. Suggest waiting and observing for single - side trading and looking for positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong, Henan, and Hubei spot prices remained stable. The 01 - contract on the market rose 12 yuan to 1687 yuan, with the basis at - 17. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 4 to - 65 [7] - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply at a relatively high level and demand improving, the downside is limited. Consider buying on dips [8][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined, with short - term technical breakdown. The flood in the main rubber - producing area in Thailand receded, reducing bullish factors. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low. The fundamental driving force of rubber weakened, temporarily following macro - fluctuations. Tire factory operating rates were weak, with inventory increasing [12][13] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral stance, suggest waiting and observing or short - term quick - in - and - out trading. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4575 yuan. The Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4510 (+20) yuan/ton, with the basis at - 65 (-2) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 278 (+1) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall operating rate was 80.2%, up 1.4%. Factory and social inventories increased [14] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation is low and costs are rising. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium term [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate of pure benzene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side increased slightly [18] - **Strategy View**: When the inventory reversal point appears, consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 28 yuan/ton to 6831 yuan/ton. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly. Production enterprise and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [21] - **Strategy View**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Consider narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 6410 yuan/ton. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate increased. Production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [24] - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 18 yuan to 6912 yuan. PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 851 dollars. The basis was 32 yuan (+38). The 1 - 3 spread was - 32 yuan (-4). The PX load in China and Asia decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or load reduction. PTA load increased. November imports from South Korea decreased. Inventory increased at the end of October [27] - **Strategy View**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Look for buying opportunities on dips [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The East China spot price rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The basis was - 33 yuan (+5). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-10). The PTA load increased. The downstream load increased slightly. Terminal load was mixed. Social inventory decreased in late November. Spot and futures processing fees changed [28] - **Strategy View**: With supply and demand stabilizing, look for buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29][30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The East China spot price rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The basis was 4 yuan (unchanged). The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan (-5). The supply - side load increased, with multiple domestic and overseas plant changes. The downstream load increased slightly. Terminal load was mixed. Import arrivals were expected, and port inventory increased [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. Suggest shorting on rallies [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, due to the relatively high level compared to the previous year, it is not enough to generate a highly profitable CBOT soybean futures planting profit situation. In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. [3] - The new global soybean production has been marginally lowered, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [5] - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not prosperous before, the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices has digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force, and with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. In the short - term, there is a resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium - term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and with the end of seasonal stocking, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] - The theoretical slaughter volume of pigs remains large, the completion rate of the slaughter plan of large - scale farms is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight is still high year - on - year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small farmers are slowly being released. The supply pressure remains, and there is still an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand is tepid, and only sporadic bacon - making activities have occurred in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a narrow range, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 2990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week, mainly due to high crushing volume, and the apparent consumption was flat week - on - week. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 89% of the expected area. The USDA predicted that the global soybean supply - demand pattern would shift from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, and the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio had dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently. [3] - **Strategy**: In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [3][5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days. [7] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5460 - 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 78 yuan/ton. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield rate at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year; sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year. [12] - **Strategy**: It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13800 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1180 yuan/ton. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. [16] - **Strategy**: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main production areas was flat at 3.06 yuan/jin, the price in Heishan was flat at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders had little confidence in the future market, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. [20] - **Strategy**: The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with the mainstream price decreasing. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 11.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan was flat at 11.44 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of farmers increased gradually, but the demand increase was relatively limited, the market sales speed slowed down, and today farmers may reduce prices to sell, and the pig price may decline. [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing in this way [2]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [2]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy. For stock index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy, a call option bull spread combination strategy, and an arbitrage strategy between the synthetic long futures position of options and the short futures position [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,914.01, up 25.41 points or 0.65%, with a trading volume of 785.7 billion yuan and an increase of 139.9 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,146.72, up 162.64 points or 1.25%, with a trading volume of 1088.3 billion yuan and an increase of 148.2 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - Other important indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed different degrees of increase and changes in trading volume [3]. 3.2 Option - related Market Overview 3.2.1 Option - based ETF Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes of various ETFs such as SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc. are presented. For example, the SSE 50ETF closed at 3.137, up 0.024 or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 7.5581 million shares and an increase of 7.4992 million shares in trading volume [4]. 3.2.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - based market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF is 1.04, with a change of 0.02, and the position PCR is 1.03, with a change of 0.04 [5]. 3.2.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of SSE 50ETF is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [7]. 3.2.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of SSE 50ETF is 11.85%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.15%, with a change of - 0.76% [10]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, with specific option varieties classified into different sectors [12]. - For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided, including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long - covered call strategies. For example, for the SSE 50ETF in the financial stock sector, a neutral - biased seller combination strategy is recommended for volatility strategies [13]. 3.4 Option Charts - Option charts of various option varieties such as SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc. are presented, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, position PCR, implied volatility, and other information [16][32][47][65][81][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, the policy supports the capital market, and the technology - growth sector remains the main line, with a long - term bullish view on the index. In the bond market, the fourth - quarter bond supply - demand pattern may improve, and the market is expected to remain volatile. For precious metals, silver is strong due to expectations of Fed's easing policies. In the non - ferrous metal market, most metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. In the black building materials market, the steel and iron ore markets face different challenges, and the glass - soda ash and other sub - sectors also have their own characteristics. In the energy - chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products such as livestock, grains, and oils also show different supply - demand and price trends [4][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5. Many cities are implementing new housing subsidy policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages Chinese advantageous enterprises to "go global". The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the price of London spot silver has reached a new high [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk preference has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the technology - growth sector is the main line. The long - term view is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The Bank of Japan governor mentioned future interest - rate hike paths. The CSRC is promoting the REITs market. The central bank conducted 1076 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2311 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI in November improved, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond linkage and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The US economic data was lower than expected, pushing up the silver price. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is expected to continue to rise strongly next week, with attention to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. Gold is recommended to buy on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai silver and gold are provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rose, with LME copper up 0.51% and Shanghai copper at 89,380 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory was flat, and the domestic copper inventory decreased. The spot import loss increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is positive due to the expected Fed's interest rate cut. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. The reference ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose, with LME aluminum up 0.8% and Shanghai aluminum at 21,885 yuan/ton. The domestic and LME aluminum inventories decreased. The market sentiment was weak [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to rise further due to inventory reduction, supply disturbances, and copper price increase. The reference ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose, with Shanghai zinc up 0.75% and LME zinc at 3065.5 dollars/ton. The zinc inventory decreased, and the import loss was high [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The zinc market has low attractiveness to speculative funds [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with Shanghai lead down 0.10% and LME lead at 1982.5 dollars/ton. The lead inventory decreased, and the import profit was positive [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded, with Shanghai nickel at 117,850 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price decline slowed down [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose, with Shanghai tin at 306,580 yuan/ton. The tin supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price rose, with the MMLC index up 1.07%. The futures price also rose [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future demand expectation has differences, and the price may fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the futures contract is provided [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with the index at 2716 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the import profit was positive [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Fed's policies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price rose, with the main contract at 12,445 yuan/ton. The supply was high, and the demand improved marginally. The inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely due to high supply and cost pressure [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose, with the main contract at 21,055 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cast aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend due to cost support and supply disturbances [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose, with rebar and hot - rolled coil prices increasing. The export to South Korea may be affected by anti - dumping duties [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm and important meetings [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, with the main contract at 801 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the overall commodity environment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, with the main contract at 1036 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in the bottom - exploring stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash price was stable, with the main contract at 1176 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the demand was weak [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda - ash price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish [37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The manganese - silicon price was supported at 5600 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon price was in a downward channel [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black - building materials market is expected to have a rebound opportunity. The manganese - silicon price is unlikely to fall significantly, and attention should be paid to the manganese - ore situation. The ferrosilicon has low operability [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rose, with the main contract at 9145 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial - silicon price is expected to be stable in the short term. The supply and demand are weak, and it is easily affected by market sentiment [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price rose, with the main contract at 57,705 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon price is expected to be unstable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the platform - company situation [47]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fell, and the technical pattern was broken. The supply and demand situation was complex, and the inventory increased [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading. A hedging strategy is also recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price rose, with the INE main contract at 455.7 yuan/barrel. The refined - oil inventories changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude - oil price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test the OPEC's export - support intention [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, with the main contract at 2136 yuan/ton. The supply and demand improved, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose, with the main contract at 1675 yuan/ton. The supply and demand improved, and the inventory decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure - benzene and styrene prices were stable. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to buy when the inventory situation reverses [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose, with the main contract at 4553 yuan/ton. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price fell, with the main contract at 3882 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene - glycol price is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose, with the main contract at 4762 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA price is expected to have a short - term rebound opportunity. It is recommended to buy on dips [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose, with the main contract at 6930 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price rose, with the main contract at 6803 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with the main contract at 6397 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price is expected to be stable in the short term. It may be supported in the first quarter of next year [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price rose in some areas and fell in others. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse - spread strategies [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean price fell, and the import cost decreased. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were high [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean and meal prices are expected to fluctuate. The import cost has a bottom, and the inventory is large [83]. Oils - **Market Information**: The palm - oil price was weak, and the export data decreased. The domestic oil inventories decreased [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm - oil price may reverse if the Indonesian production decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price was stable. The domestic sugar production decreased, and the global supply was expected to be in surplus [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [88]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price rose. The supply was high, and the demand was medium [89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the situation where neither supply nor demand can provide strong drivers, the price trend of industrial silicon shows a pattern of "stable spot prices and fluctuating futures prices." The futures price fluctuations mainly come from cost change expectations, capital sentiment, and event disturbances. Limited supply reduction, insufficient demand, and high inventory are important constraints on price breakthroughs, while cost is an important support at the lower end. The futures price may experience short - term pulse - type increases but lacks a sustainable trend. In the short term, the industrial silicon price is likely to remain range - bound. To achieve a trending market, new drivers are needed [1][30]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, after entering the dry season, due to rising electricity prices and increased costs, the operating rates of some factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have significantly decreased. The weekly output has dropped by about 50% from the annual high, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. In the northwest region, production remains strong. Due to the advantage of coal - power costs and the ability to use hedging tools, enterprises can maintain a relatively high operating rate. As a result, the weekly national total output has decreased by less than 10% from the annual high. It is estimated that there is still some room for production decline in the southwest region. According to statistics, the production cost in Xinjiang is about 8,500 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that in the southwest region. If the northwest region maintains its operation, the overall production contraction is expected to be limited, and the impact of weather on production in the northwest needs to be monitored [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market focuses on warehouse receipts and the establishment of platform companies, with the near - month prices showing strength. However, from the perspective of the industrial chain supply - demand, the marginal change is not optimistic. In December, the production schedule of the downstream silicon wafer segment is 45.7GW, a decrease of about 16% compared to November's 54.37GW. The production schedule of the silicon material segment is 11.35 tons, with a limited month - on - month decline. The polysilicon inventory of silicon enterprises has reached 28 tons, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is increasing. Although the silicon material price is temporarily stable, with N - type material quoted at 50,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, it is mainly a strategic price - holding behavior. If the platform company is established, the industry operating rate is expected to remain controlled, and the actual demand for industrial silicon will be insufficient [17]. - **Organic silicon**: The organic silicon industry has a greater impact on the industrial silicon market in terms of sentiment and expectations. After facing profit pressure and weak prices, the industry held a meeting, established a coordination mechanism, and planned to implement a production - reduction plan in early December, while also raising the spot price. Before December, the production of organic silicon DMC showed a slight increase, and the subsequent production - reduction plan is expected to have a relatively limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon. After the downstream profit is restored, the willingness to suppress the price of upstream raw materials may decrease, which will improve the price expectation of industrial silicon to some extent. However, if the production - reduction plan is fully implemented, the procurement of industrial silicon will be difficult to increase in a certain period [22]. - **Silicon - aluminum alloy and exports**: Driven by the industrial manufacturing and automotive industries, the operating rate of aluminum alloy has recently increased. After the end of the export rush, the export of industrial silicon decreased significantly in October, which cannot change the overall weak demand pattern [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the increasing probability of a rate cut has kept the sentiment warm. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts [5]. - The aluminum price is expected to rise further as domestic and LME aluminum inventories are in a downward trend, with low inventory levels, and supported by supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price [7]. - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment to the non - ferrous metals industry, despite some industry contradictions [9]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the current weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, reducing its attractiveness to speculative funds [11]. - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor for short - term prices, although demand is currently weak [13]. - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms, despite large surplus pressure [15]. - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or use options, while paying attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics [18]. - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong [21]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally [24]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price hit a new high and then declined. LME 3M copper rose 0.51% to $11,232/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 89,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong declined, and the import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread increased [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are still a headwind, but the market focuses on the Fed's meeting. With a tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts, the copper price is expected to be strong. The operating range of SHFE copper is 88,200 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is $11,000 - 11,350/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,888/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,885 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market trading sentiment was weak [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - With declining inventories, supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 21,720 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is $2,840 - 2,910/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.10% to 17,069 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1,982.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment, although the industry has some contradictions such as rising lead - ore inventory and changing smelting operating rates [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.75% to 22,603 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $3,065.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the open interest has reached a new low in 2025 [11]. Tin Market Information - The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.09% to 306,580 yuan/ton. In October, domestic tin - concentrate imports increased, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) disrupted tin - ore transportation. The demand in traditional sectors is weak, and the social inventory decreased [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $38,000 - 41,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.66% to 117,850 yuan/ton. The spot premium of different brands changed, and the nickel - ore price was stable, while the nickel - iron price decline slowed down [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index rose 1.07%, and the LC2605 contract rose 0.54%. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.84% to 2,716 yuan/ton. The open interest increased, the basis and overseas prices were reported, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong. The reference operating range of the AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.65% to 12,445 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different products changed, the raw - material prices were reported, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally due to downstream restocking and traders' hoarding [24]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose 1.23% to 21,055 yuan/ton. The open interest and volume increased, the warehouse receipts increased, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, while the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a strong trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds rather than continue to short. The macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3134 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.771%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 48,275 tons, a net increase of 10,356 tons. The main contract's open interest was 882,576 lots, a net decrease of 89,702 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3327 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.757%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 704,586 lots, a net decrease of 80,806 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy View - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral overall performance. The production of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand slightly declined, and the inventory only slightly decreased. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.88% (+7.00). The open interest changed by - 14,304 lots to 376,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 930,100 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.41%. [4] Strategy View - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. The shipment from Australia decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries slightly declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that could be restarted in a short time was low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years, with the proportion of profitable steel mills at 35%. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 1st, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 2.00% at 5724 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.41% at 5466 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 34 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][9] Strategy View - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on the market sentiment is still worth looking forward to. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make rebounds. [10][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9145 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.16% (+15). The weighted open interest increased by 1079 lots to 382,530 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 205 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 145 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.27% (+1280). The weighted open interest increased by 12,372 lots to 273,242 lots. [13][15] Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The weekly output continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable, and the export decreased. The cost support was stable. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the production capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the main contract is at a high premium. [14][17] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton, down 1.61% (-17). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1120 yuan, up 30 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 941,000 boxes (-1.49%). The soda ash main contract closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-1). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1176 yuan, up 24 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons (-1.49%). [19][21] Strategy View - For glass, the supply decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines, and the market sentiment briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market was still weak. The industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. For soda ash, the industry's operating load slightly increased, the inventory slightly decreased, and the price remained stable. It is recommended to be bearish before the demand significantly improves. [20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each options variety has an options strategy report written according to the underlying market analysis, options factor research, and options strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct an options portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. [4] 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report presents the volume - to - open - interest PCR data of various options varieties, including trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change, which are used to describe the strength of the options underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The report shows the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option positions, and maximum put option positions of various options varieties from the perspective of options factors, which can be used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying options [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various options varieties [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation is that the demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production slightly decreased, and refineries increased the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand. The overall on - balance - sheet inventory remains healthy. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libya's exports have quickly recovered, and CPC Terminal's exports remain weak. Russia's exports are not hindered. In the Middle East, satellite data shows that Kuwait's refinery resumed operations earlier than expected, which weakened the strong support for low - sulfur fuel oil. The price trend shows short - term weak fluctuations in August, continued weakness and a bearish trend in September followed by a gradual rebound, a sharp decline and then a rebound in October, and a continued shock followed by a rebound and then a sharp decline in November. The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 430. Suggested strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put options combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a historically high level. The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply on one hand and is disturbed by geopolitical issues on the other hand. The LPG price fluctuated between $62 - 66 this week with frequent ups and downs. The price trend shows a sharp decline in September, a rebound and then a slight shock in October, and a continued bullish trend in November, showing a market situation of an oversold rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The options open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4150. Suggested strategies include a short - biased call + put options combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory is 136.35 tons, a decrease of 11.58 tons compared to the previous period. The market sentiment has improved, and the inventory is accelerating to be depleted due to a decrease in arrivals. The enterprise inventory is 37.37 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons compared to the previous period, and at a low level compared to the same period last year. The enterprise's pending orders are 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons compared to the previous period. The price trend shows a weakening and bearish trend since August, a rebound after a low - level consolidation in September, a continued weak and bearish trend since October, and a decline followed by an increase in November, showing a situation of an oversold rebound with pressure above. The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2300 and the support level is 2000. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put options combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is 73.2 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream factory inventory days are 15 days, an increase of 2.2 days compared to the previous period. In the short term, the arrival volume decreased last week, the departure volume is moderately low, and the expected inventory accumulation speed of the port has slowed down. There are more unexpected maintenance of domestic plants, and the expected arrival volume from overseas in December is expected to decrease, which has improved the expected balance sheet of ethylene glycol. The price trend shows a slight weak consolidation in August, a continued weak and bearish trend since September, a weak and bearish decline in October, and a low - level weak shock in November, showing a weak market situation with pressure above. The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong short - selling power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 3500. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Related Options - **Polypropylene**: The PE production enterprise inventory is 45.4 tons, a decrease of 9.80% compared to the previous period and an increase of 9.77% compared to the same period last year. The PE trader inventory is 4.71 tons, a decrease of 6.60% compared to the previous period. The PP production enterprise inventory is 54.63 tons, a decrease of 8.00% compared to the previous period and an increase of 15.79% compared to the same period last year. The PP trader inventory is 20.05 tons, a decrease of 6.04% compared to the previous period. The PP port inventory is 6.53 tons, a decrease of 0.76% compared to the previous period. The price trend shows a weak and slight fluctuation in August, a continued weak and bearish trend in September, an accelerated decline followed by a low - level shock in October, and a low - level weak consolidation followed by a rebound in November, showing a weak market situation with short - selling pressure above. The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to around the average level. The options open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weakening market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: It is expected that 10 - 11 tons of rubber warehouse receipts will expire and be delivered in mid - January, and the rubber inventory and warehouse receipts in the exchange will significantly decrease, with a low inventory level. The price trend shows a recovery and then a range - bound consolidation in August, a continued weak and bearish trend since September, a continued low - level consolidation in October, and a slight range - bound consolidation in November, showing a weak consolidation market situation with support below and pressure above. The implied volatility of rubber options has risen sharply and then dropped to near the lower - than - average level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000 and the support level is 15000. Suggested strategies include a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: As of November 21, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 223 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons compared to the previous period. The downstream load remains at a high level, and the expected maintenance volume of PTA in November is expected to increase, and it is expected to enter a phased inventory - depletion stage. The price trend shows a decline followed by a slight consolidation and then a rapid rebound, a continued weak and bearish trend in September, a decline followed by an increase and then a slight shock in October, and a gradual rebound and recovery in November, showing a rebound and recovery market situation with pressure above. The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a higher - than - average level. The options open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300. Suggested strategies include a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Related Options - **Caustic Soda**: By the end of the month, the supply is sufficient. The downstream alumina market has generally low enthusiasm for entering the market recently, and the market is still in a stalemate, with most purchases of caustic soda on an as - needed basis. It is expected that the alumina market will show a weakening and fluctuating trend in the later period. In addition, data shows that the cumulative export volume from January to October 2025 is 2944386.820 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.93%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 is 338.803 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 94.57%. The price trend shows a rapid decline followed by a short - term bullish upward movement and then a high - level shock in August, a continuous decline since September, an accelerated decline in October, and a low - level weak and bearish trend in November, showing a weak and bearish market situation with pressure above recently. The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons compared to the previous period. The available inventory days are 13.16 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash is 84.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.05 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The in - factory inventory of light soda ash is 74.06 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price trend shows a continued weak consolidation since August, a low - level slight fluctuation and a weak trend in September, a continued weak trend in October, and a low - level weak shock in November, showing a low - level weak shock market situation with pressure above and support below. The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a decrease of 4.64 tons compared to the previous period. The domestic reserve demand and export preparation have driven the depletion of enterprise inventory. The port inventory is 10 tons, unchanged from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase in the future. The price trend shows a wide - range and large - amplitude fluctuation in August, a gradual weakening in September, a low - level weak shock in October, and a gradual rebound and recovery in November, showing a low - level shock and then a gradual rebound market situation. The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level. The options open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600. Suggested strategies include a short - bullish call + put options combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].