Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The downstream demand and traders' purchasing activities have effectively consumed inventory. Coupled with some steel mills' maintenance and production cuts leading to reduced market arrivals, the national stainless - steel social inventory continued to decline this week. However, the current social inventory level remains high, and the market supply - demand maintains a weak balance. In the spot market, the inventory digestion of Qingxi agents has significantly accelerated, and the inventory pressure has been relieved, but it is mainly speculative restocking by traders. On the raw material side, the nickel - iron price has risen slightly, the market inquiry is active, and the inventory is continuously digested, providing cost support for the stainless - steel price. At the macro level, the warming market sentiment has driven up the overall commodity valuation. It is expected that next week's market will still be mainly driven by sentiment. Driven by the price - increase expectation, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is expected to increase, thereby accelerating the social inventory digestion and promoting market circulation. Overall, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On July 25, the average price of Wuxi stainless - steel cold - rolled coils was 12,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.67%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.40%. In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. In July, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. From January to June 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was +14.4%. This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1186 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,400 tons, a decrease of 245 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 202,100 tons, 669,900 tons, and 246,500 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week. This week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 51,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.11%, and the unloading volume was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.55%. This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel compared with last week, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Price Changes**: On July 25, the average price of Wuxi stainless - steel cold - rolled coils was 12,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.78%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.67%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.40% [11][17]. - **Market Premium and Position**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong and Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 330 yuan compared with the main contract. The disk position was 235,594 lots, a week - on - week increase of 22.64% [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 2 was reported at - 30 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 3 was reported at - 55 (+15) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. In July, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11][27][30]. - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In June, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - **Export Situation**: In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - **Household Appliances and Fuel Processing**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. In June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was +14.4% [43]. - **Elevators and Automobiles**: In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, the automobile sales volume was 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1186 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.54%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,400 tons, a decrease of 245 tons compared with last week [50]. - **Inventory by Series and Arrival Volume**: This week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 202,100 tons, 669,900 tons, and 246,500 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week. This week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 51,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.11%, and the unloading volume was 59,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.55% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.8787 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.17% [57]. - **Nickel - Iron**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel compared with last week, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - **Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome**: This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 54.5 yuan/dry ton, compared with 0 yuan/dry ton last week. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,800 yuan/50 - base tons, compared with 0 yuan/50 - base tons last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - **Production Margin**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of - 6.02%. As the downstream consumption sentiment warms up, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, reconstructing the original oversupply logic, and significantly increasing the valuation of each contract on the futures market, especially for the far - end contracts [12][14] - For near - end contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight reduction to relieve pressure in advance and considering the possibility of active weight gain due to a large fat - standard price difference, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter decreases, and the monthly spread may move towards a positive spread structure [12][14] - For far - end contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for now, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [12][14] - The industrial structure is being reconstructed, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases, and more attention should be paid to monthly spread opportunities [12][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, the spot pig price continued to decline. Due to enterprises reducing weight, the slaughter volume remained high, the weight mainly decreased, the demand was average, and the price trend was weak. The fat - standard price difference decreased month - on - month but was higher year - on - year. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.26 yuan to 14.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.16 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong increased by 0.08 yuan to 15.58 yuan/kg. Affected by policies, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, but the supply may narrow near the end of the month. With the decline in pig prices, low prices may attract second - round fattening. It is expected that the pig price will first decline and then slightly increase next week [12][23] - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. Since last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, which may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the current expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure. In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [12] - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [12][60] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation for now. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and the core driving logic including policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - standard price difference [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price continued to decline last week, with different price changes in different regions. It is expected to first decline and then slightly increase next week. Although the current trend is weak, there is still an expectation of a price increase in August [23][26] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [26] - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [28] - **Prices of Back - up and Culled Sows**: Relevant price and ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [30] 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. The policy - forced capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the implementation of policies in the next few months needs attention [35] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: Relevant inventory and slaughter volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [37] - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant culling and sales volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [40] - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure [44] - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs gradually increases as the weight increases [47] - **Trading and Average Carcass Weight**: In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [51] - **Import and Pig Feed Ratio**: Relevant import volume and feed ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [53] - **Second - Round Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant ratio and utilization rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [55] 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [60] - **Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin**: Relevant rate and margin trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [62] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant spread and price - volume relationship trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [64] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant spread and sales rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [66] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost bottomed out and then slightly rebounded, remaining relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of low costs, although the pig price is weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [71] 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [76]

郑棉高位震荡， 缺乏持续上涨的驱动 棉花周报 2025/07/26 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 国际市场回顾：本周美棉花期货价格小幅下跌，截至周五美棉花期货12月合约收盘价报68.23美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.53美分/磅，涨幅 0.77%。消息方面，据USDA最新每周作物生长报告数据显示，截至2025年7月20日当周，美国棉花优良率为57%，较之前一周上调3个百分点， 连续第四周上调，创4年同期最高水平；美国棉花现蕾率为71%，较之前一周上调10个百分点，同比去年下降8个百分点；美国棉花结铃率为 33%，较之前一周上调10个百分点，同比去年下降7个百分点。据USDA公布的出口销售报告显示，截至7月17日当周，美国当前市场年度棉花 出口销售净减3.27万包，较之前一周减少692%，较前四周均值减少199%。 ◆ 国内市场回顾：本周郑棉价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, precious metal prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai Gold fell 0.8% to 773.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver fell 1.26% to 9169 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40%, and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.80% to 97.67 [11]. - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve building seriously interfered with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The trading driver of the precious metal market has shifted from economic data to the interference with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - Next week, the Fed will hold its July interest rate meeting, and its monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish. The Fed's interest rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually turn loose, and there is a possibility that the subsequent interest rate cut will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, and focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, precious metal prices fluctuated. Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver futures, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all declined to varying degrees. The U.S. dollar index also fell, while the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40% [11]. - **Policy Interference**: Trump's visit to the Fed and his public call for interest rate cuts challenged the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The Fed's response was not strong. The market's trading driver has shifted to the interference with the Fed's policy independence [11]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in this meeting with a probability of 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is only 4.1%. However, it is believed that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this meeting, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest rate cut [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [11]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price Movement**: Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices declined, while Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver also showed a downward trend to a certain extent [29]. - **Position Change**: The positions of both domestic and foreign gold increased. The total position of Shanghai Gold increased by 0.49% to 422,700 lots, and the total position of COMEX gold increased by 9.12% to 489,400 lots. The position of COMEX silver increased by 1.29% to 173,700 lots, while the total position of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4.45% to 952,000 lots [31][34]. - **ETF Position**: As of July 25, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2170 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,534 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Yield Curve**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as the yields of short - term U.S. Treasury bonds, are presented in the report [51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The Federal Funds Rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations are analyzed [54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the balance of the U.S. Treasury General Account on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet replenished $21.5 billion in funds, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased slightly to $3.36 trillion [60]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In June, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [65]. - **Employment Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value [68]. - **PMI and PPI**: In June, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, rising above the boom - bust line and higher than expected [71]. - **New Housing Data**: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.321 million, higher than expected and the previous value; the annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than expected and the previous value [74]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The gold basis is presented through the chart of Gold TD - SHFE [77]. - **Silver Basis**: The silver basis is presented through the chart of Silver TD - SHFE [79]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also analyzed [82]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventory - **Silver Inventory**: The inventory data of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through relevant charts [90]. - **Gold Inventory**: The inventory data of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through relevant charts [95].

04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 宏观情绪回暖， 供需双弱不变 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/07/26 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 政策端：各产业积极响应"反内卷"政策，宏观情绪回暖，化工板块整体上涨。 ◆ 估值：苯乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），基差走弱，BZN裂差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润下降。 ◆ 成本端：上周华东纯苯价格上涨1.35%，纯苯开工中性偏高。 ◆ 供应端：EB产能利用率78.3%，环比下降-1.14%，同比去年上涨14.81%，较5年同期上涨0.64%。根据投产计划观察，三季度 投产计划较少，全年最大投产压力在四季度。 ◆ 进出口：6月国内纯苯进口量为354.56万吨，环比5月下降-12.59%，同比去年上涨23.57%，主要为中东地区货源。6月EB进口 量22.05万吨，环比5月下降-15.78%，同比上涨43.13%。本周江苏港口EB库存持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Domestic production has declined, but corporate profits have rebounded, though the absolute level remains low. The cost - side support for urea is gradually strengthening. The compound fertilizer demand is weak, with slow growth in production and high finished - product inventory. Exports are progressing, and port inventories are rising. Overall, there is no significant unilateral trend, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: On Monday, influenced by the deepening of China's anti - involution policy, most domestic industrial products rose sharply. Urea also rose due to concerns about the elimination of backward production capacity, but it was mainly short - term sentiment. After the price peaked, the sentiment returned to rationality, and urea did not follow the continuous rise of black and some anti - involution related varieties [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Domestic urea operating rate is 83.59%, a 0.87% decline from last week, with a daily output of 19.52 tons. As the shipping date approaches, the port - collection is ongoing. Short - stop devices have increased, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover in August. Currently, the operating rate is continuously declining month - on - month but is at a relatively high level year - on - year [12]. - **Demand**: The increase in compound fertilizer operating rate is slow due to weak sales and high temperatures. This week, the operating rate is 33.58%, a 1.03% increase from last week, and the finished - product inventory is at a high level year - on - year. Domestic demand is average, and the corporate advance orders are 5.94 days, a 0.12 - day decrease from last week [12]. - **Profit and Valuation**: All process profits are at a medium - low level. The 09 basis is still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is in a contango situation. The overall structure is weak under high inventory and export expectations. The export profit is high, and the domestic price is relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related nitrogen fertilizers is at a medium - low level, indicating that the spot valuation of urea is low [12]. - **Inventory**: This week, the corporate inventory is 85.88 tons, a 3.67 - ton decrease from last week, but the decline rate has slowed down. The port inventory is 54.3 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase from last week [12]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the raw material side has strengthened due to the anti - involution policy, but the actual impact on the urea industry is limited. The market is expected to return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Contract Prices**: The 09 contract closed at 1803, up 58 from a week ago; the 01 contract closed at 1807, up 87; the 05 contract closed at 1822, up 91. The 9 - 1 spread is - 4, a 29 - point decrease from a week ago; the 1 - 5 spread is - 15, a 4 - point decrease; the 5 - 9 spread is 19, a 33 - point increase [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: In Shandong, the price is 1790, a 40 - point decrease from a week ago; in Henan, it is 1830, a 10 - point decrease; in Hebei, it is 1780, a 10 - point increase. The Shandong basis is - 17, a 127 - point decrease from a week ago; the Henan basis is 23, a 97 - point decrease; the Hebei basis is - 27, a 77 - point decrease [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong remains unchanged at 2950, and the profit is - 28.8, a 7 - point increase from a week ago. In Hubei, the price is 2960, a 10 - point increase, and the profit is 18, a 9 - point increase. The melamine price is not available, and the profit is - 623, a 7 - point increase [13]. - **International Prices**: FOB Arabian Gulf is 478, a 2 - point decrease; FOB Baltic is 437.5, a 10 - point increase; FOB Yuzhny is 445, an 18 - point increase; FOB China is 435, a 25 - point increase; CFR Brazil is 452.5, an 8 - point decrease. The urea export profit is 1202, a 149 - point increase [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The overall production profit is at a low level, including fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production profits [32]. - **Inventory** - **Corporate Inventory**: The corporate inventory is decreasing, but the decline rate has slowed down. The end - of - month corporate inventory is expected to change as shown in the relevant charts [12][36]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory is increasing due to ongoing exports [12][36]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are planned new production capacities, and some enterprises' new production devices have been put into operation or are expected to be put into operation in the future [42][44]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including routine, fault - based, and policy - based maintenance, which has affected the production capacity [48][49]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics. The demand from downstream industries such as compound fertilizers, melamine, and terminal industries like plywood and real estate also affects the overall demand for urea [54][60][68]. - **Export**: Urea export has high profits, and the export volume and regions are shown in the relevant charts [79][80]. 3.6. Option - related - The report shows the option positions, trading volume, position PCR, trading PCR, and volatility of urea options [90][92]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [95][98][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand in the long - term. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform 2.0 expectations, which have led to a surge in market sentiment. However, there are signs that the short - term exuberant sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to the risk of a significant price drop when the sentiment wanes. It is also recommended that relevant enterprises seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Production and Price Data**: The weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg. The DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Spot and Futures Data**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [15]. - **Cost Data**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Supply Data**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year [15]. - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon production remained at a low level, DMC production was basically stable, and overall demand was still relatively weak [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [21]. 3. Profit and Cost - **Cost Factors**: The average electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 0.02 yuan/kWh and 0.04 yuan/kWh respectively week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained unchanged. The silicon coal price in the main production areas increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week [26][29]. - **Production Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [29]. 4. Supply and Demand - **Supply - Total Output**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year. In June 2025, the industrial silicon output was 331,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 321,000 tons or 14.74% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - Main Production Areas Output**: Data on the output of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc. are presented in the form of graphs, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [36][39][42]. - **Demand - Polysilicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg [46]. - **Demand - Organic Silicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Demand - Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [52]. - **Demand - Export**: From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [55]. 5. Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [60]. 6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. During the week, it broke through the upper edge of the flag (or expanding horn pattern) and briefly accelerated upwards, once exceeding 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly gain of 1,005 yuan/ton or 11.55%. At the daily - line level, the short - term rebound trend continued, but the upward momentum became looser. Short - term attention should be paid to the price performance at the resistance level around 10,000 yuan/ton, and be wary of the risk of price decline [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic market is in the best window period for import profit in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply in the second half of the year may increase. Assuming that the outer - disk price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline in the future is relatively high [9][10] Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: This week, the raw sugar price fell. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was reported at 16.28 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.51 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 3.04%. In June, the sugar - cane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased. From June 2025 to the 2025/26 crushing season, the sugar content (ATR) decreased from 125.2 kg/ton to 121.4 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; the average yield (TCH) decreased from 88.9 tons/ha to 79.3 tons/ha, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%. As of the week of July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.3408 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 246,500 tons [9] - **Domestic Market Review**: This week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose slightly. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was reported at 5,876 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.86%. In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 459,100 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [9] - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: With the current good import profit window in the domestic market, the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming no significant rebound in the outer - disk price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [9][10] - **Fundamental Evaluation**: On July 26, 2025, the basis was 164 yuan/ton, and the multi - empty score was - 0.5; the Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread was 198 yuan/ton, and the multi - empty score was + 0; the production - sales area spread was - 120 yuan/ton, and the multi - empty score was + 0; the raw - white sugar spread was 115 US dollars/ton, and the multi - empty score was + 0; the raw sugar - alcohol spread was 3.34 cents per pound, and the multi - empty score was + 0; the cost of the October contract within the quota was 4,544 yuan/ton, and the cost outside the quota was 5,672 yuan/ton, and the multi - empty score was - 1. The overall valuation of the disk is high [10] - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report shows the price trend of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, and the basis chart of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract from 2021 to 2025 [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spread**: It includes the processing sugar basis and the production - sales area spread charts from 2021 to 2025, as well as the Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 and 9 - 1 spread charts of different contract periods [20][21][24] - **Internal - External Spread**: It presents the charts of the profit of out - of - quota spot import, out - of - quota disk import, raw sugar 10 - 3 and 3 - 5 spreads, London white sugar 8 - 10 and 10 - 3 spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premium and discount, and sugar - alcohol ratio from 2021 to 2025 [25][26][28] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Output**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production charts in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41][42] - **Sugar Import Volume**: It includes the monthly and annual cumulative sugar import volume charts, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volume charts of syrup and premixed powder from 2021 to 2025 [44][45][47] - **National Sales Volume**: It shows the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress charts in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49][50] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It presents the monthly industrial inventory chart in China from 2021 to 2025 and the Guangxi three - party warehouse inventory chart from 20/21 to 24/25 [52][53] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Position**: The report shows the CFTC fund net position and commercial net position charts from 2021 to 2025 [57][58] - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production Situation**: It includes the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugar cane, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume charts in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [59][60][62] - **Indian Output**: It shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production charts in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [64][65] - **Thai Output**: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production charts in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [67][68] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: It includes the sugar inventory chart in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the chart of the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [70][71]