1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long seller strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, it is appropriate to construct a partial long seller strategy, a bull spread strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Important Index Overview | Index Name | Index Code | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Trading Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index | 000001.SH | 3,875.79 | - 2.21 | - 0.06% | 6,237 | - 235 | 16.22 | | Shenzhen Component Index | 399001.SZ | 13,006.72 | 51.46 | 0.40% | 9,252 | - 975 | 29.88 | | SSE 50 Index | 000016.SH | 2,974.34 | 11.26 | 0.38% | 886 | 31 | 11.82 | | CSI 300 Index | 000300.SH | 4,546.57 | 15.52 | 0.34% | 3,488 | - 257 | 13.96 | | CSI 500 Index | 000905.SH | 7,012.81 | 16.45 | 0.24% | 2,399 | - 114 | 31.94 | | CSI 1000 Index | 000852.SH | 7,248.66 | 0.38 | 0.01% | 3,113 | - 237 | 45.91 | [4] 3.2 Option - underlying ETF Market Overview - Multiple ETFs are involved, including SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc. Their closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes are presented. For example, the SSE 50ETF closed at 3.116 yuan, with a price increase of 0.008 yuan and a change percentage of 0.26%, and its trading volume was 430.64 million shares [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume, volume change, position, position change, volume PCR, and position PCR of various options are provided. For instance, the SSE 50ETF option has a volume of 51.16 million contracts (a decrease of 3.99 million contracts), a position of 127.17 million contracts (an increase of 2.06 million contracts), a volume PCR of 0.93 (a decrease of 0.32), and a position PCR of 0.98 (an increase of 0.01) [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of the SSE 50ETF is 3.20, and the support point is 3.10 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the SSE 50ETF option has an at - the - money implied volatility of 11.66%, a weighted implied volatility of 11.90% (a decrease of 0.12%), an annual average of 16.00%, etc. [11] 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions 3.6.1 Financial Stock Sector (SSE 50ETF) - Market trend: After accelerating the rise in August, it fluctuated at a high level. In September, it rebounded after a high - level decline. In October, it recovered after a high - level decline. In November, it gradually declined and then consolidated in a narrow range, showing a volatile decline trend with pressure above [14]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility fluctuates around the mean; the position PCR is around 1.00, indicating a volatile trend; the pressure point is 3.30, and the support point is 3.10 [14]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; construct a neutral - biased seller combination strategy for volatility; implement a spot long covered call strategy [14]. 3.6.2 Large - cap Blue - chip Stock Sector (SSE 300ETF) - Market trend: It accelerated the rise and broke through in August, then fell back and rebounded rapidly in September. Since October, it has fluctuated at a high level and then reached a new high and declined. In November, it declined rapidly after a high - level shock and then rebounded, showing an oversold rebound and recovery trend with pressure above [14]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility fluctuates above the mean; the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a weak market; the pressure point is 4.70, and the support point is 4.60 [14]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; construct a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options; implement a spot long covered call strategy [14]. 3.6.3 Medium - and Large - cap Stock Sector (SZSE 100ETF) - Market trend: It showed a long - biased upward trend with high - level volatility in September, reached a new high and then declined rapidly in October, and declined rapidly after a high - level shock in November and then rebounded, showing a long - biased high - level volatile and oversold rebound trend [15]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level; the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a long - biased volatile decline trend; the pressure point is 3.70, and the support point is 3.50 [15]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; construct a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options; implement a spot long covered call strategy [15]. 3.6.4 Small - and Medium - cap Stock Sector (SSE 500ETF) - Market trend: It continued to rise in August and then declined at a high level. In September, it fell back and then rebounded rapidly. In October, it fluctuated at a high level. In November, it consolidated at a high level and then declined rapidly and then consolidated in a small range, showing a high - level volatile decline and then range - bound trend [15]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility fluctuates above the historical mean; the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a volatile trend; the pressure point is 7.25, and the support point is 6.75 [15]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; construct a short - volatility strategy of selling call and put options; implement a spot long covered call strategy [15]. 3.6.5 Small - and Medium - cap Stock Sector (CSI 1000) - Market trend: It has fluctuated significantly at a high level since September, fell back after reaching a high in October and then rebounded, and consolidated in a small range and weakened in November and then rebounded, showing an oversold rebound trend after a high - level decline with pressure above [16]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option has risen to a level above the mean; the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a volatile and weak market; the pressure point is 7400, and the support point is 7000 [16]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; implement a short - volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options, and adjust the position dynamically to keep the delta of the position short [16]. 3.6.6 ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF) - Market trend: It reached a high and then fell back sharply and then rebounded to a recent high in October, and then declined. In November, it fluctuated significantly at a high level, declined, and then gradually recovered, showing a long - trend high - level volatile, new - high - reaching, and then rapid - decline and gradual - rebound trend [16]. - Option factor analysis: The implied volatility remains at a high level; the position PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strengthening trend; the pressure point is 3.10, and the support point is 2.90 [16]. - Strategy suggestions: No directional strategy; construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time - value income; implement a spot long covered call strategy [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - For each sector, specific options are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions [9] - Option strategy reports for each option variety are prepared based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (in 10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (in 10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | 457 | 5 | 1.15% | 6.65 | -2.28 | 2.98 | -0.17 | | Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) | 4,310 | 9 | 0.21% | 5.39 | 0 | 6.84 | -0.16 | | Methanol | 2,107 | -11 | -0.52% | 105.31 | 5.68 | 93.47 | -1.37 | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,781 | -40 | -1.05% | 12.60 | -9.17 | 29.52 | -0.41 | | Polypropylene | 6,331 | -21 | -0.33% | 20.60 | -2.21 | 45.02 | -0.97 | | Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) | 4,481 | -22 | -0.49% | 59.49 | 0.57 | 99.01 | -3.13 | | Plastic | 6,735 | -48 | -0.71% | 21.01 | 2.37 | 38.65 | -1.62 | | Styrene | 6,563 | -11 | -0.17% | 33.86 | -6.88 | 27.96 | -1.70 | | Rubber | 15,100 | 5 | 0.03% | 8.77 | -1.42 | 4.86 | -0.94 | | Synthetic Rubber | 10,460 | -25 | -0.24% | 9.15 | -3.12 | 3.21 | -0.69 | | p-Xylene | 6,850 | -22 | -0.32% | 2.95 | -2.84 | 3.76 | -0.02 | | Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) | 4,702 | -20 | -0.42% | 49.07 | -0.93 | 82.44 | -3.52 | | Short Fiber | 6,244 | -22 | -0.35% | 1.29 | 0.35 | 2.11 | -0.13 | | Bottle Chip | 5,660 | -34 | -0.60% | 1.27 | -0.47 | 1.62 | -0.12 | | Caustic Soda | 2,120 | -26 | -1.21% | 22.01 | -7.02 | 16.96 | -0.38 | | Soda Ash | 1,147 | -8 | -0.69% | 66.89 | -4.22 | 106.67 | -3.64 | | Urea | 1,688 | -2 | -0.12% | 15.60 | 3.54 | 20.93 | -0.03 | [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market. The open interest PCR is the ratio of put option open interest to call option open interest, and the trading volume PCR is the ratio of put option trading volume to call option trading volume [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of the underlying option are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility includes at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, call option implied volatility, and put option implied volatility. The weighted implied volatility is calculated using trading volume - weighted average [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US refinery demand has stabilized and recovered. Shale oil production has slightly declined, and refineries have increased diesel output due to arbitrage demand. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libyan exports have quickly recovered, and Russian exports are not blocked. In the Middle East, Kuwait's refinery has resumed operation earlier than expected, weakening the support for low - sulfur fuel oil [8] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 540, and the support level is 430 [8] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US propane inventory is starting to decline but remains at a historical high. The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical issues, and the LPG price has shown a market trend of over - sold rebound and slight consolidation [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly decreased to near the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4150 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level. The market sentiment has improved, and the methanol price has shown a trend of over - sold rebound [10] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weakly oscillating market; the pressure level is 2300, and the support level is 2000 [10] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory is expected to increase at a slower pace, and the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve. The ethylene glycol price has shown a weak market trend [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating strong short - side power; the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 3500 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a short - volatility strategy for time value returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PE and PP production and trading enterprise inventories have decreased. The polypropylene price has shown a weak market trend [11] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [11] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options for directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts are expected to significantly decrease. The rubber price has shown a weakly oscillating market trend [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has decreased to near the average level after a sharp rise; the open interest PCR is below 0.60; the pressure level is 16000, and the support level is 15000 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PTA social inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load remains high. The PTA price has shown a rebound trend [12] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates above the average level; the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating an oscillating market; the pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [12] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is weak. The caustic soda price has shown a weak short - side market trend [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market; the pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2200 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy for directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Factory inventory has decreased. The soda ash price has shown a low - level weak oscillating market trend [13] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure; the pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [13] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy for directional returns; construct a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.7 Other Options - Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory is expected to increase. The urea price has shown a trend of low - level oscillation and gradual rebound [14] - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level; the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure; the pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14] - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for option time value and directional returns; construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile trend, soft commodities like sugar have slight fluctuations, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating in a bullish direction. The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various option - underlying futures have different price movements. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,091, down 29 (-0.70%); soybean meal (M2601) is 3,034, unchanged (0.00%); and corn (C2601) is 2,302, up 29 (1.28%). Their trading volumes and open interests also vary [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different quantity and position PCR values. For instance, the quantity PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.53, and the position PCR is 0.91; the quantity PCR of soybean meal is 0.77, and the position PCR is 0.76. These values help describe the strength of the option - underlying market trends and potential turning points [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,250, and the support level is 4,000; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3,100, and the support level is also 3,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.83%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.00% with a change of - 0.22%. The implied volatility can reflect the market's expectation of future price fluctuations [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation shows high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories with slow inventory depletion. The price has shown a rebound after a decline. The implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a volatile market. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The oil mill operating rate is about 61.41%. The price has shown a downward - then - upward trend. The implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, while exports have decreased. The price has shown a weak downward trend. The implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The price has shown a short - term bullish trend. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the position PCR indicates a volatile and strong market. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Agricultural By - products Options**: - **Pig**: The average weight of pig slaughter has increased. The price has shown a weak downward trend. The implied volatility is above the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: The domestic egg price has shown a slight increase with sufficient supply. The price has shown a volatile rebound. The implied volatility is at a high level, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination [11]. - **Apple**: The new - season apple storage situation is complex. The price has shown a continuous upward and volatile trend. The implied volatility is above the historical average, and the position PCR indicates strong support. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The new - season jujube has a strong expected production cut but with inventory pressure. The price has shown a weak downward trend. The implied volatility has rapidly risen above the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodities Options**: - **Sugar**: The sugar - mill opening situation in Guangxi is behind schedule. The price has shown a weak downward trend. The implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the position PCR indicates a range - bound market. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The spinning mill operating rate is stable, and the commercial inventory has increased. The price has shown a short - term bullish trend. The implied volatility is at a low level, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: The corn inventory in northern ports is accumulating, and the trading in Guangdong ports is light. The price has shown a weak rebound. The implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination [13]. - **Starch**: The price has shown a bullish trend. The implied volatility is at a low historical level, and the position PCR indicates a weak market. The recommended strategy is a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 5, 2025 [1] - **Report Title**: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers [2]. - For the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2]. - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 90,960 | 170 | 0.19 | 22.53 | 9.93 | 23.46 | 1.06 | | Aluminum | 22,235 | 175 | 0.79 | 24.64 | 8.48 | 24.45 | - 0.48 | | Zinc | 23,010 | 170 | 0.74 | 16.43 | 5.79 | 10.57 | 0.11 | | Lead | 17,305 | 120 | 0.70 | 3.73 | 1.03 | 4.66 | 0 | | Nickel | 117,700 | - 30 | - 0.03 | 10.33 | - 0.91 | 11.80 | - 0.06 | | Tin | 320,070 | 1,690 | 0.53 | 34.50 | 13.90 | 5.21 | - 0.10 | | Alumina | 2,590 | - 30 | - 1.15 | 18.44 | - 2.01 | 32.93 | - 1.51 | | Gold | 958.46 | 0.82 | 0.09 | 31.05 | 1.04 | 19.76 | - 0.02 | | Silver | 13,366 | - 260 | - 1.91 | 228.09 | - 38.35 | 45.24 | - 0.61 | | Lithium Carbonate | 92,400 | - 1,140 | - 1.22 | 1.20 | 0.03 | 2.62 | 0.04 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,925 | - 35 | - 0.39 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 6.76 | 0.46 | | Polysilicon | 55,520 | 300 | 0.54 | 1.76 | 0.41 | 3.20 | 0.22 | | Rebar | 3,148 | 11 | 0.35 | 32.20 | - 5.18 | 62.75 | - 5.02 | | Iron Ore | 791.50 | - 2.00 | - 0.25 | 18.67 | 1.72 | 29.37 | - 4.11 | | Manganese Silicon | 5,778 | 38 | 0.66 | 13.60 | 3.36 | 16.11 | - 3.89 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,468 | 60 | 1.11 | 4.00 | 1.88 | 5.58 | - 1.40 | | Glass | 1,008 | 0 | 0.00 | 116.38 | - 5.97 | 125.61 | - 3.22 | [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.2.1 Volume PCR | Option Variety | Volume PCR | Volume PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 0.39 | 0.03 | | Aluminum | 0.26 | - 0.02 | | Zinc | 0.32 | - 0.29 | | Lead | 0.37 | - 0.04 | | Nickel | 0.34 | - 0.10 | | Tin | 0.42 | 0.12 | | Alumina | 0.44 | 0.14 | | Gold | 0.36 | - 0.12 | | Silver | 0.79 | 0.21 | | Lithium Carbonate | 0.85 | 0.05 | | Industrial Silicon | 0.75 | 0.21 | | Polysilicon | 0.95 | 0.02 | | Rebar | 0.54 | - 0.07 | | Iron Ore | 1.27 | - 0.42 | | Manganese Silicon | 0.41 | - 0.13 | | Ferrosilicon | 0.34 | - 0.33 | | Glass | 0.89 | 0.26 | [4] 3.2.2 Open Interest PCR | Option Variety | Open Interest PCR | Open Interest PCR Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 0.83 | 0.06 | | Aluminum | 0.57 | - 0.02 | | Zinc | 0.94 | - 0.05 | | Lead | 0.77 | - 0.02 | | Nickel | 0.57 | 0 | | Tin | 0.85 | 0.19 | | Alumina | 0.23 | 0 | | Gold | 0.56 | - 0.01 | | Silver | 1.34 | 0.03 | | Lithium Carbonate | 0.82 | - 0.02 | | Industrial Silicon | 0.45 | - 0.01 | | Polysilicon | 1.30 | - 0.17 | | Rebar | 0.59 | 0.01 | | Iron Ore | 1.68 | 0.01 | | Manganese Silicon | 0.67 | - 0.01 | | Ferrosilicon | 0.79 | - 0.02 | | Glass | 0.35 | - 0.02 | [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels | Option Variety | Pressure Point | Support Point | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 90,000 | 84,000 | | Aluminum | 22,000 | 21,000 | | Zinc | 23,000 | 22,000 | | Lead | 18,000 | 16,800 | | Nickel | 120,000 | 110,000 | | Tin | 335,000 | 290,000 | | Alumina | 3,000 | 2,700 | | Gold | 1,000 | 904 | | Silver | 14,000 | 12,000 | | Lithium Carbonate | 100,000 | 80,000 | | Industrial Silicon | 10,000 | 8,600 | | Polysilicon | 60,000 | 50,000 | | Rebar | 3,200 | 3,000 | | Iron Ore | 900 | 700 | | Manganese Silicon | 6,000 | 5,700 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,700 | 5,400 | | Glass | 1,620 | 1,000 | [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility | Option Variety | At - the - Money Implied Volatility (%) | Weighted Implied Volatility (%) | Weighted Implied Volatility Change | Annual Average | Call Implied Volatility (%) | Put Implied Volatility (%) | HISV20 | Implied - Historical Volatility Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 19.25 | 22.29 | 1.88 | 17.99 | 23.58 | 18.96 | 15.73 | 3.52 | | Aluminum | 11.89 | 13.42 | 0.44 | 12.40 | 13.63 | 12.61 | 11.10 | 0.79 | | Zinc | 11.19 | 12.59 | 1.44 | 14.21 | 12.80 | 11.92 | 10.89 | 0.30 | | Lead | 10.65 | 13.33 | - 0.22 | 14.69 | 13.80 | 12.09 | 12.51 | - 1.87 | | Nickel | 12.81 | 16.06 | 0.55 | 23.31 | 16.47 | 14.87 | 15.81 | - 3.00 | | Tin | 28.28 | 30.46 | 0.86 | 26.69 | 31.53 | 27.93 | 22.76 | 5.51 | | Alumina | 19.41 | 23.99 | - 0.24 | 29.19 | 26.09 | 19.19 | 22.57 | - 3.16 | | Gold | 20.78 | 24.39 | 0.68 | 22.13 | 25.89 | 20.22 | 22.50 | - 1.72 | | Silver | 38.38 | 40.10 | - 3.26 | 29.82 | 39.95 | 40.28 | 30.87 | 7.51 | | Lithium Carbonate | 34.80 | 34.24 | - 2.89 | 39.79 | 36.20 | 31.95 | 34.89 | - 0.09 | | Industrial Silicon | 20.04 | 23.73 | - 0.32 | 33.57 | 26.65 | 19.84 | 23.29 | - 3.25 | | Polysilicon | 32.67 | 41.71 | 0.84 | 44.01 | 41.23 | 42.22 | 35.36 | - 2.69 | | Rebar | 11.38 | 13.62 | - 0.08 | 16.55 | 13.67 | 13.52 | 13.76 | - 2.38 | | Iron Ore | 16.90 | 18.52 | - 0.47 | 21.46 | 17.28 | 19.49 | 18.84 | - 1.94 | | Manganese Silicon | 12.86 | 14.67 | 0.16 | 21.90 | 14.94 | 14.01 | 13.95 | - 1.09 | | Ferrosilicon | 14.86 | 15.63 | 1.86 | 23.13 | 16.01 | 14.49 | 15.00 | - 0.14 | | Glass | 25.78 | 29.36 | - 1.29 | 36.84 | 31.97 | 26.41 | 30.56 | - 4.79 | [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8] - **Aluminum Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a neutral bias and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin Options**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bullish bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals (Silver) - Construct a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy with a bullish bias and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloy Options (Manganese Silicon)**: Construct a short - volatility strategy [14] - **Industrial Silicon Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy to short volatility and a spot long - hedging strategy [14] - **Glass Options**: Construct a short call + put option portfolio strategy to short volatility and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

有色金属日报 2025-12-5 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 铜 有色金属小组 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数反弹，铜价震荡，昨日伦铜 3M 合约微跌 0.13%至 11434 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 90960 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 675 至 162825 吨，注销仓单继续增加，Cash/3M 升水维持偏强。国内电解铜 社会 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil still faces inventory pressure, with difficulties in inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the tone of important meetings [2]. - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradiction. The impact of macro - pricing will gradually strengthen in December [5]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds rather than continue to short, as macro factors are more important [9][10]. - Industrial silicon shows a short - term weak operation with a supply - demand weak pattern and limited marginal changes [13]. - Polysilicon faces challenges in reducing inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games [15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, with the supply - demand contradiction not effectively resolved, and the market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20]. Summary by Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.189%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 441,41 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 114,799 lots to 1,411,905 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.391%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 492,093 lots to 1,034,595 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - This week, rebar production declined significantly, inventory continued to decrease, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coil production decreased, apparent demand was neutral, inventory reduction was difficult, and the social inventory level was high. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.63% (- 5.00). The position decreased by 41,114 lots to 293,700 lots. The weighted position was 949,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.69% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline of Rio Tinto and FMG shipments. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 232.3 tons, down 2.38 tons. The number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and annual inspections increased. The steel mill profitability rate rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. In the inventory aspect, port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, and there is no sign of resolving the inventory structural contradiction [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 4, affected by the increase in settlement electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia and the sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys rebounded significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.87% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.84% at 5546 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The market sentiment has improved, but there is still differentiation among commodity sectors. The black sector is weak, and ferroalloys are also affected by the weak coking coal sentiment. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of macro - events in December on market sentiment is worth expecting. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, but it is difficult for its own fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 0.11% (- 10). The weighted position increased by 12,668 lots to 413,311 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 440 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 90 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 515). The weighted position decreased by 1,608 lots to 276,578 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 4615 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon shows short - term weak operation. The weekly output continues to decline, and the marginal decline has slowed down significantly. The demand from polysilicon in December is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is stable in the short term, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy has increased, but the export has decreased significantly in October. The cost support is stable, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes [13]. - The production of polysilicon in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease significantly, and the inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year is difficult to relieve. The downstream prices are weak, while the upstream silicon enterprises still maintain high prices. The near - month contract has high risks due to delivery games, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of the platform company [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1010 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.98% (- 10). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, down 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, down 2.92 million cases (- 4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,182 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 23,024 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.26% (- 3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1132 yuan, down 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, down 48,800 tons (- 4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash inventory, down 12,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,611 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,616 lots [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply of glass has decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines by many enterprises last week, and the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall spot market trading is still light, and the manufacturers still face great pressure in shipping. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream orders and the implementation of cold - repair production lines [18]. - The production capacity of soda ash has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled devices. The mainstream market supply meets the demand, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Light soda ash supply is locally tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to the decline in the glass industry. The soda ash price remains stable in the short term, but it should be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20].

文字早评 2025/12/05 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、2025 年 12 月 5 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元买断 式逆回购操作； 3、台积电鲁立忠表示，AI 功耗正呈现指数级增加，能源效率成为 AI 能否普及的关键因素。新技术节点 可比上代减少 30%功耗； 4、世界黄金协会(WGC)报告预计，美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加， 将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风，2026 年黄金价格有望再上涨 15%至 30%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.35%/-0.76%/-1.20%/-2.31%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.42%/-1.24%/-2.86%/-5.82%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.54%/-3.60%/-6.90%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.49%/-0.53%/-1.03%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 ...

Group 1: General Information - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on December 5, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, Brazilian soybean premiums increased, and the cost of imported soybeans slightly rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton. Meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days were 8.17 days, up 0.19 days from the previous week. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week due to high crushing volume, and apparent consumption was flat compared to the previous period [2] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area. USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. However, since the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio for the forecast year is still relatively high, it is not enough to generate a market with high planting profits on the CBOT soybean futures. It is expected that the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate without significant problems in South American weather [3] Strategy - The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, soybean meal inventory is large, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared to the same period last month, is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increase by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to slightly correct in the near future. Market expectations of a large month - on - month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in November may cause inventories to rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, waiting for MPOB data. Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and concerns about floods have eased, which is negative for palm oil prices. However, the expected production cut in November is starting to materialize, and rainfall in the producing areas will increase seasonally in December, supporting the price bottom. The correction is expected to be limited [7] - On Thursday, domestic fats and oils gave back some gains, and foreign investors increased short positions in the three major fats and oils. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in November and less purchasing by India in November are suppressing the market. There is still an expectation of destocking in the medium term, waiting for clear data [8] Strategy - Excessive production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - correction strategy [10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,410 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,820 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar to the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 82 yuan/ton [11] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and sugar production was 983,000 tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [11] Strategy - It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve much. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction is still bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are already at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [12] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B to the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,208 yuan/ton [14] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared to last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 72.1%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production in the latest USDA monthly supply - demand report was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the US production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; India's production remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [15] Strategy - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force for now. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trending market is not high [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao remained at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was basically normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory in each link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly be stable, with a few declining [19] Strategy - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. In the short term, this reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts on the futures market cannot be falsified for now. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal stocking ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [20] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined, with some areas stable or slightly rising. The average price in Henan rose 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 11.34 yuan/kg. Farmers were active in selling pigs, the market supply was abundant, and the demand was also slowly increasing. Today, pig prices are expected to be mainly stable, with prices in areas with large supply continuing to decline, and prices in some northern areas with limited supply may rise slightly [22] Strategy - The theoretical number of pigs for slaughter is still large, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter plans is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the release of second - fattening pens by small farmers is slow. The supply - side pressure remains, and there will be further increases in the future. In contrast, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic curing activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures valuation is not low and the spot market is driving the price down, a strategy of shorting the near - month contracts or reverse arbitrage is recommended [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The driving force of the loose monetary policy expectation on precious metal prices has shown an obvious marginal weakening, and attention should be paid to the risk of short - term sharp price corrections in precious metals [1]. - After the release of the weak ADP employment data, the market reaction was small. The subsequent release of the US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, and the initial job - less claims data for the week announced last night was better than expected, causing the silver price to weaken [2]. - Given that gold and silver prices did not continue their strong performance in the face of the positive factors of this week's ADP employment data, and Hassett's "appointment hint" has exhausted the short - term driving factors of loose monetary policy, it is recommended to gradually liquidate existing long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.09% to 958.46 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.91% to 13366.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4237.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 57.53 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.11%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.07 [1]. Economic Data - The last employment report before the Federal Reserve's December interest - rate meeting was weak. The number of ADP employed people in the US in November decreased by 32,000, lower than the expected increase of 10,000 and the previous value of an increase of 47,000. The US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6, higher than the expected 52.1 and the previous value of 52.4. The number of initial job - less claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, significantly lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous value of 218,000 [2]. Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to gradually liquidate existing long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 935 - 968 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract is 12639 - 14000 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Summary - For gold on December 4, 2025, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 4237.90 US dollars/ounce (up 0.07% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,200 lots (down 8.51% from the previous day), etc. For silver on the same day, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 57.53 US dollars/ounce (down 2.38% from the previous day), the trading volume was 3,302,500 lots (down 10.43% from the previous day), etc. [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced due to port back - flow and trans - shipment, but the subsequent port pressure remains due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of port olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. - **Urea**: The market continues to fluctuate higher. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have improved short - term demand, and the overall supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is expected to build a bottom in a fluctuating manner, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is weakly falling. The flood in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand is receding, and the subsequent bullish factors are decreasing. The inventory of exchange RU is low, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It temporarily follows macro - fluctuations. A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [11][13][14]. - **PVC**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level, and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, but the supply is high, and the demand is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. In the face of a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [14][16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still ample, and the styrene inventory in ports is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18][19]. - **Polyethylene**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may have bottomed out the oil price. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21][22]. - **Polypropylene**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and an expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [23][25]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, while the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans and a low load. The PTA processing fee is under pressure, and PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [25][26]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be stable due to the gradual repair of processing fees, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December due to large - scale accidental maintenance, and the import volume will slightly decrease, so the inventory accumulation rate at ports may slow down. However, in the medium - term, the supply is expected to be high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 3.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.73% increase, at 452.60 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.57 million barrels to 427.50 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; SPR replenished by 0.25 million barrels to 411.67 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels to 214.42 million barrels, a 2.15% increase; diesel inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels to 114.29 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 22.89 million barrels, a 0.09% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.61 million barrels to 43.95 million barrels, a 1.41% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, the price in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 15 yuan to 2113 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 96 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 1688 yuan, the basis was + 2, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 57 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell weakly. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, and the exchange RU inventory was low. The fundamentals had little driving force and temporarily followed macro - fluctuations. The tire factory operating rate was weak. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a 2.3 - ton increase, a 2.1% increase [11][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 41 yuan to 4500 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 yuan/ton (down 40), the basis was - 40 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 282 (down 9). The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. The factory inventory was 32.3 tons (+ 0.7), and the social inventory was 104.3 tons (+ 1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price increased, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 tons to 16.42 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6776 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6820 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 16 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.93 tons to 45.4 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.33 tons to 4.71 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6359 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6410 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.75 tons to 54.63 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.29 tons to 20.05 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 6.53 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 417 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan narrowing [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 2 yuan to 6870 yuan, the PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 845 dollars, and the basis was - 17 yuan (- 61). The 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (unchanged). The PX load in China was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; the Asian load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas South Korea GS 550,000 - ton plant reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. In November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 390,000 tons, a 35,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a 48,000 - ton month - on - month increase [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 6 yuan to 4724 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 32 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan (- 4). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 28 was 2.173 million tons, a 58,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan to 171 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 194 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 4 yuan to 3826 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 18 yuan to 3822 yuan, the basis was - 7 yuan (- 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 94 yuan (+ 10). The ethylene glycol load was 72.9%, a 0.2% decrease, of which the syngas - based load was 72.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.1%, a 0.6% decrease. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 161,000 tons, and the East China departure on December 3 was 600 tons. The port inventory was 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [29].