大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 790.5 | 780.5 | 10.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 771.0 | 759.5 | 11.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | | DCE09 | 750.5 | 740.5 | 10.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 770 | 771 | -1 | 839 | 50 | 71 | 90 | | 纽曼粉 | 774 | 775 | -1 | 834 | 46 | 67 | 86 | | 麦克粉 | 768 | 768 | 0 | 833 | 45 | 66 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Black Metal Daily, October 09, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Threaded Steel - Futures: RB05 price is 3128 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB10 is 3020 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB01 is 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit is - 119 yuan, down 7 yuan; the 10 - contract is - 264 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 01 - contract is - 145 yuan, down 6 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian is 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3200 yuan/ton. The adjustment and rolling profit is 80 yuan, up 30 yuan; the East China threaded steel profit is - 196 yuan, down 10 yuan [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 price is 3293 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; HC10 is 3370 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; HC01 is 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit is 15 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 10 - contract is 86 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 01 - contract is 45 yuan, up 3 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3320 yuan/ton. The Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit is - 256 yuan, down 11 yuan; the East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 161 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [7] - Trading Strategy: The black sector maintains a volatile trend. Steel spot trading is average. After the holiday, demand is released to some extent, and low - price trading is okay. Some steel mills have reduced production. Steel inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the apparent demand has declined rapidly. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel has an expanding trend [8][9] - Specific Strategies: Unilateral trading, maintain the bottom - oscillating trend, suggest buying on dips; for arbitrage, suggest holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and buying the difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel; for options, suggest waiting and seeing [9] - Important Information: This week, the small - sample threaded steel output is 203.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62 tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 146.01 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 43.4% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 95.05 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output is 323.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 290.97 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.72% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 33.64 million tons. In September 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs such as the base price of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the price difference between different contracts, the profit of different contracts, and the cash profit in different regions [17][19][23]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5472 | -22 | -270 | 131169 | -61050 | 118081 | 5984 | | SM主力合约 | 5768 | 10 | -148 | 153351 | -23013 | 363849 | 15558 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | -50 | -180 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - **25 - 10 - 09**: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - **25 - 10 - 09**: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - **25 - 10 - 09**: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - **25 - 10 - 09**: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - **25 - 09 - 30**: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - **25 - 09 - 29**: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - **25 - 09 - 19**: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the output of the new apple season is likely to decrease, and the excellent fruit rate is low due to small fruit diameters. The market has high expectations for the new - season apple prices, and there is still room for short - term price increases. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the increase in apple warehouse receipts and inventory may put pressure on the market [5]. - The apple price trend is likely to be strong in the early stage and weak in the later stage [18]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface Summary Background Introduction - Recently, the apple price has risen sharply, with the 01 contract price reaching over 8,600 yuan/ton. The market has some disagreements about whether the price will continue to rise [4]. Analysis Conclusion - The new - season apple output in 2025 is likely to decrease, and the excellent fruit rate is low. The market expects high prices for new - season apples, and the short - term price may rise. Medium - to - long - term, the increase in warehouse receipts and inventory will pressure the market [5]. Part Two: Market Analysis New - Season Crop Situation - This year, the apple output is expected to decline, and the quality is poor. In spring, a hot and dry wind in Shaanxi affected apple fruit - setting. Although the bagging volume increased by 5.74% year - on - year, side - flower apples have smaller diameters. Insufficient rainfall during the growth period also led to small fruit diameters. There are quality problems with early - maturing apples, and fruit rust may occur in some areas [9]. - Table 1 shows the comparison of apple bagging in 2025 with 2024. Shaanxi had a 5.74% increase, while Shandong had a 12.95% decrease. The estimated output in 2025 is 3,659.04 million tons, down from 3,734.97 million tons in 2024 [10]. Expected High Initial Purchase Price and High Warehouse Receipt Cost of New - Season Apples - This year's apple purchase price is expected to be high because of the decline in quality and output and the high purchase price of early - maturing apples. The purchase price of Fuji apples is expected to be 0.3 - 0.5 yuan/jin higher than last year. Due to the low excellent fruit rate, the price of high - quality apples will be higher, and the price difference between grades will widen. The warehouse receipt cost is expected to increase by at least 800 - 1,200 yuan/ton compared to last year [11]. Possible Increase in Apple Storage Volume and Long - Term Pressure on Fruit Prices - In 2024, apple cold - storage traders and farmers suffered heavy losses, resulting in low cold - storage inventory in the 2024/25 season. In 2025, cold - storage traders' profits were good. This year, their purchasing enthusiasm may increase, especially for high - quality apples. If the price is appropriate, the apple storage volume may increase, which will put pressure on the market [12]. Relatively Weak Demand - In 2025, apple demand was relatively weak. Despite the low cold - storage inventory in the 2024/25 season and low weekly出库 volume, the apple price did not rise significantly and even declined in July when summer fruits were on the market. In contrast, in low - inventory years like 2018/19 and 2021/22, apple prices rose significantly [15]. Summary - In the short term, factors such as lower - than - expected output, small fruit diameters, low excellent fruit rates, high expected purchase prices, and high warehouse receipt costs will support the apple price to continue rising. - In the medium - to - long - term, the apple price will return to the supply - and - demand level. After the new - season apples are stored in cold storage, the high inventory and weak demand, as well as the increased selling - hedging demand of apple enterprises during the mass - listing period from late October to early November, will put pressure on the market. The apple price trend is likely to be strong in the early stage and weak in the later stage [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

Report Overview - Report Title: Silicon Research Report [11][19] - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [11][19] Since there is no information about the industry investment rating, core view, and detailed content in the provided text, no further summaries can be made.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and overseas economic data releases in early October will cause market fluctuations, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [1][2]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease during the National Day holiday, and the demand is also weak, but the cost side provides some support, so the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the high-sulfur fuel oil price is under pressure. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also increasing, and the demand has no specific driving force, so the low-sulfur fuel oil price is also weak [6][7][8]. - The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PX price is expected to decline. The supply of PTA is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also weak, so the PTA price is expected to decline [9][10][11]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the ethylene glycol price is expected to decline [12][13]. - The supply of short fiber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the short fiber price is expected to decline [14][15]. - The supply of bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the bottle chip price is expected to decline [16][17]. - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pure benzene price is expected to decline. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the styrene price is expected to decline [17][18][19]. - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the propylene price is expected to decline [21]. - The supply of caustic soda is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the short term but strong in the medium term, so the caustic soda price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [22][23]. - The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PVC price is expected to decline [24][25]. - The supply of LLDPE and PP is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the LLDPE and PP prices are expected to decline [26][28]. - The supply of glass is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the glass price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [28][30]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the soda ash price is expected to decline [31][32][33]. - The supply of methanol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the methanol price is expected to decline [35][36]. - The supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the urea price is expected to decline [38][40]. - The supply of pulp is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to decline [43][44]. - The supply of offset printing paper is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the offset printing paper price is expected to decline [46][47]. - The supply of logs is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the log price is expected to decline [49][50]. - The supply of natural rubber and 20 rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the natural rubber and 20 rubber prices are expected to decline [51][54]. - The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the butadiene rubber price is expected to decline [56][58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $63.18, down $2.01 or 3.08% from the previous day; Brent2511 contract settled at $67.65, down $2.1 or 3.01% from the previous day; SC2511 contract rose 3.5 to 492.6 yuan/barrel, and fell 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/barrel in the night session [1]. - **Related News**: Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine on Sunday, causing at least four deaths and dozens of injuries. As of the week ending September 21, diesel and diesel oil exports increased by 85% from the previous week to more than 1.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The facilities near the port were attacked by drones this week, temporarily affecting exports [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices. As the National Day holiday in China approaches, there are many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices have an upward driving force. On the other hand, OPEC+ will announce its production increase plan for November on October 5, and the supply side will remain under high pressure. Overseas economic data will be released in early October, causing market fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and investors need to pay attention to the risk of holding positions. In the short term, the intraday trading range of the Brent main contract is expected to be between $67.8 and $70 [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak; Options: Wait and see [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3439 points (-0.43%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3393 points (-0.53%) in the night session. On September 29, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was stable at 3500 yuan/ton, the spot price in East China was stable at 3560 yuan/ton, and the spot price in South China was stable at 3510 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, there was a small amount of rush - work demand before the holiday, which was beneficial to the sales of refineries and traders. In addition, some refineries stopped producing asphalt and consumed inventory, driving the total inventory level of refineries to decline slightly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the market trading was relatively dull as the National Day holiday approached, and downstream users purchased on demand. In the South China market, the reduction of rainfall in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions drove the sales of refineries and social inventories, and the sales volume of Foshan warehouse increased compared with the previous period, which was beneficial to the increase of asphalt prices [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants on Monday this week was 40.35%, down 9.53% from last Thursday. The total inventory level of refineries was 25.89%, down 1.22% from last Thursday, and the social inventory rate was 34.07%, down 1.24% from last Thursday. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and it is expected that there is limited upward space before the holiday, and the cost side provides limited support. The supply and demand of asphalt decreased compared with the previous period before the holiday, and the industry chain can still maintain de - stocking, and the spot price has certain support. There are many uncertainties overseas during the National Day holiday in China, and the situation between the United States and Venezuela will continue to disrupt the supply expectation of asphalt raw materials. In the short term, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Range oscillation; Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil oscillates weakly; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [6]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2870 (-2.28%) in the night session, and the LU11 contract closed at 3399 (-2.38%) in the night session. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Oct/Nov spread was 4.8 to 2.8 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Oct/Nov spread remained at - 0.5 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Related News**: A major oil port operator in Shandong, China, will take measures to ban shadow fleet vessels and restrict the access of other old oil tankers from November 1. On September 30, there were no transactions in the high - sulfur fuel oil 380, high - sulfur fuel oil 180, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities have been attacked continuously, but the refineries and various transportation facilities have also returned from maintenance in a timely manner. The Primorsk port has resumed oil loading after being attacked last Friday, and large refineries such as Ryazan and Volgograd are also in the process of returning to normal. The high - sulfur exports in the Middle East have increased as the power generation demand has subsided, but Iran's exports are still restricted. Mexico's high - sulfur exports have continued to decline due to the commissioning of secondary devices in Olmeca and Tula. The summer power generation demand has completely subsided. Under the background of the decline of high - sulfur cracking and the low cost of tax reform, the feed demand support is still not obvious. The high - sulfur near - end inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot window transaction price is at a low level, and the premium continues to decline. The low - sulfur supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driving force for downstream demand [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the LU01 - FU01 spread; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [9]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session; the TA601 main contract closed at 4662 (+6/+0.13%) in the day session and 4580 (-72/-1.55%) in the night session. The PX price rebounded slightly yesterday, and the PX valuation was 817 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars from last Friday. One November Asian spot was traded at 816, and two December Asian spots were both traded at 816. In the PTA spot market, the negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little [9][10]. - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq has resumed oil exports through Turkey, causing international oil prices to decline. In terms of PX supply, the 390,000 - ton PX plant of Tianjin Petrochemical is planned to restart recently. The maintenance of two 700,000 - ton PX plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Jinling Petrochemical in the fourth quarter has been postponed to 2026. The short - process plants at home and abroad have increased their loads, and the PX operating rate remains at a high level. In the downstream PTA, the 4.5 - million - ton Fuhai Chuang plant restarted last weekend with a load of 50%. This week, the 1.25 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 1.2 - million - ton Zhongtai plant stopped production, and the 1.1 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 5 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant reduced their loads. Currently, the load of Hengli Huizhou has recovered. In October, the 1.1 - million - ton Sichuan Energy Investment and the PTA plant of Hengli Petrochemical Dalian are expected to be overhauled. In November, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Dushan Energy Phase I and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang have overhaul plans, and the commissioning of the 3 - million - ton new plant of Dushan Energy has been postponed. The PTA operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in October. Recently, polyester filaments have carried out price promotions, the terminal operating rate has increased, and polyester sales have continued to be boosted. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of some domestic PX plants has been postponed, and the operating rate is running at a relatively high level. PX is still in a tight balance, and the de - stocking amplitude is smaller than expected; the PTA processing fee valuation is low, the commissioning of new plants is delayed, the planned maintenance volume in October remains relatively high, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The overall profit of the terminal is still poor. The supply - demand side provides limited driving force, and the price is greatly affected by the macro - level and the cost side [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the fourth quarter, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, and the de - stocking amplitude is shrinking; the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large; the terminal operating rate has increased, but the profit is poor. There is still inventory accumulation pressure on crude oil and PTA. It is recommended to short on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [11][12]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4224 (+11/+0.26%) yesterday and 4185 (-39/-0.92%) in the night session. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 64 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is 4289 - 4293 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, several next - week spot transactions were at a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of the October futures is at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is around 4293 - 4295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related News**: According to CCF, the inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was about 409,000 tons yesterday, down 58,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant of Fuzhou Refining is planned to stop for maintenance for about two weeks in October. The 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Meijin is planned to stop for maintenance from September 25, and it is expected to restart in mid - October. From the end of September to early October, the 900,000 - ton satellite petrochemical and the 260,000 - ton Jianyuan ethylene glycol maintenance plants are expected to restart, and the 400,000 - ton MEG of Shenhua Yulin is expected to increase its load. The Tongliao Jinmei and Henan Yongcheng plants have maintenance plans. The 900,000 - ton/year new ethylene glycol plant of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is planned to start trial production around the end of this month, and the ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase. Overseas, a 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia stopped production due to technical reasons this week, and the restart time is undetermined. During the National Day holiday, the arrival of overseas ships is relatively concentrated, and the market's willingness to sell has increased. Downstream orders are less than the same period last year, the ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to become looser, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell call options [14]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session. The prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable, and the mainstream negotiation price of semi - bright 1.4D was 6350 - 6

Report Overview - The report is a coking coal special report released by Galaxy Futures on September 30, 2025, focusing on the impact of overproduction on coking coal production in the fourth quarter [10][13][14] Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content Data and Information Coal Production Data - The report shows the national and Shanxi's raw coal production from 2021 - 2025, as well as the national and Shanxi's coking clean coal production from 2020 - 2025 through line charts [7][9][10] Coal Overproduction Data - In Inner Mongolia's 2024 coal mine production verification report, among 299 verified coal mines, 89 (30%) exceeded the announced production capacity, and 33 (11%) exceeded 110% of the announced production capacity [15] - In the 2024 Shanxi coal mine overproduction situation (mainly from the 2022 - 2023 production data), among 144 sampled coal mines, 15 (10%) had annual overproduction (annual output greater than 110% of the production capacity), 22 (15%) had monthly output exceeding 10% of the production capacity, and 9 (6%) had both annual and monthly overproduction [19]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].