大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率有所回升，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡， 西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格持续下跌，煤制甲醇利润在 600 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高 位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，国际甲醇装置开工率高位下滑，美金价格小幅下 跌，进口顺挂缩小，伊朗部分装置短停，非伊开工稳定，欧美价格分化，内外逆差修复， 东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗 5 月已装 63 万吨，伊朗招标陆续成交，部分非伊改港中国， 6 月进口预期 135-140。需求端，传统下游进入淡季，开工率回落，MTO 装置开工率低 位徘徊，兴兴 69 万吨/年 MTO 装置负荷不满；南京诚志 1 期 29.5 万吨/年 MTO 装置负 荷不满，其配套 60 万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2 期 60 万吨/年 MTO 装置负荷不满， 江苏斯尔邦 80 万吨/年 MTO 装置停车，计划为期 45 天左右；天津渤化 60 万吨/年（MTO） 装置负荷 7 成；宁波富德 60 万吨/年 DMTO 装置重启负荷不满。库存方面，进口陆续 恢复，需求刚性，进口顺挂，港口库存触底，基差盘整；内地企业库存开始攀升。综合 来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting progress is accelerating, and the US corn price is in a bottom - range oscillation. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic corn price is expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as reduced imports of grains, low inventory of traders in North China, and expected feed enterprise procurement in May. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June. The corn starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. Although the inventory has slightly increased this week, it is expected to have short - term support, but the enterprise may be in a long - term loss state due to weak demand [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509), the closing prices are 2249, 2261, and 2347 respectively, with increases of 0.31%, 0.13%, and 0.51%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), the closing prices are 2654, 2643, and 2738 respectively, with changes of 0.30%, - 0.19%, and 0.33%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have different degrees of change [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices vary in different regions, such as 2210 yuan in Qinggang and 2468 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao. The basis also shows different values. Starch spot prices are relatively stable, with prices ranging from 2750 to 2970 yuan. The basis of starch is positive [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - month spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 is - 12 with a change of 4), starch inter - month spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 is 11 with a change of 13), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 is 391 with a change of - 3) are presented [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has strong bottom support. The domestic northern port flat - hatch price has declined, and the Northeast corn spot price has stabilized. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn price is weak. The wheat price in North China is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short - term. The reduction of imported grains is expected to be beneficial to the spot market. The corn price is expected to be strong, with short - term support at 2400 yuan/ton in North China and 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long - term, policy grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn price in Shandong is relatively stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2860 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is also strong. The corn starch inventory has slightly increased this week, reaching 142.9 million tons. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, but the profit will be repaired. The 07 starch contract is expected to have support at around 2650 [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The domestic 07 corn contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range, and short - term long positions can be considered [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the strategy of buying spot and shorting 07 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when the spread is low and conduct oscillatory operations [14]. - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options [15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis and spread of corn starch 09 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different periods and varieties [17][20][23].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪继续乏力，国内主流地区尿素现货出厂报价稳中下探，成交一般。 山东地区主流出厂报价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易 商出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏 低，出厂报价坚挺，贸易商出货，收单量减少，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚 挺为主。交割区周边区域出厂价稳中下跌，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区春耕结束， 交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商低价出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交 受阻，待发消耗，预计出厂价跟跌为主。检修装置回归，日均产量维持在 20 万吨附近， 位于同期最高水平。需求端，近期，相关部门召集尿素生产企业及协会开会讨论当前尿 素出口可行性，相关具体细节已经公布，当前国内外价差较大，关注国际价格变动对国 内影响。华中、华北地区复合肥生产积极性偏低，基层对高价货抵制，复合肥厂开工率 高位回落，尿素库存可用天数在一周后，对原料采购情绪 ...

今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 14.59 14.72 -0.13 山 西 14.55 14.58 -0.03 湖北（0） 14.43 14.43 0.00 辽 宁 14.29 14.36 -0.07 安徽（300） 14.77 14.81 -0.04 吉 林 14.24 14.27 -0.03 湖南（100） 14.28 14.28 0.00 黑龙江 14.20 14.24 -0.04 四川（-200） 14.27 14.27 0.00 福 建 14.72 14.72 0 江西（100） 14.37 14.37 0.00 广 东 15.18 15.09 0.09 山东（0） 14.85 14.88 -0.03 广西(-200) 14.11 14.03 0.08 江苏（500） 14.87 14.87 0.00 云 南 14.37 14.27 0.1 河北（-100） 14.63 14.76 -0.13 贵 州 14.27 14.17 0.1 内蒙（-800） 14.29 14.32 -0.03 陕西(-300) 14.33 14.43 -0.1 浙江（1100） 14.93 14 ...

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 沥青日报 | | | | 名称 | 2025/05/21 | 2025/05/20 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2506 （主力） | 3519 | 3541 | -22 | -0.62% | | BU2507 | 3519 | 3510 | 9 | 0.26% | | BU2508 | 3498 | 3482 | 16 | 0.46% | | SC2506 | 470.1 | 465.4 | 4.7 | 1.01% | | Brent首行 | 65.42 | 64.57 | 0.9 | 1.32% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 17.3 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 155.19% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 18.9 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 71.24% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 86510 | 86510 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU06-07 | 0.00 | 31.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International soybean market supply is still relatively loose, while domestic soybean supply pressure exists, and soybean and related products are expected to show certain trends. Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term sugar prices expected to be weak. The palm oil market in Malaysia may continue to increase production and inventory, and the domestic soybean oil inventory will also start to accumulate. The corn market has stable domestic spot prices and strong futures support. The pig market is expected to be weak. The peanut market has limited short - term rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market is expected to be slightly stronger. The cotton market is expected to be strong due to macro - level influence [3][10][19][28][34][39][50][55][61] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1050.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.5% to $297.7 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Anec raised Brazil's May soybean and soybean meal export forecasts. EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to last year. South American soybean crushing and exports are growing. As of May 16, domestic oil mills' soybean actual crushing volume was 1.9055 million tons, with an operating rate of 53.56%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week but decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - **逻辑分析**: International market supply is loose, and domestic soybean supply pressure exists, with soybean meal accumulating inventory [3] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, slightly layout long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive spread and expand MRM09 spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar fell 0.04 (0.23%) to 17.41 cents per pound [7] - **重要资讯**: In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of May decreased by 42.92% year - on - year. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi slightly decreased [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term prices expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar, but also expected to be weak [10] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations and pay attention to extreme weather in Guangxi. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. For options, sell wide straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil's main price changed by 1.33% to 49.57 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price changed by - 0.15% to 3904 ringgit per ton [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC expects the price of Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate between 3750 and 4050 ringgit in May and then gradually recover. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased by 5.3% month - on - month. US soybean crushing profit increased by 7% week - on - week. In March 2025, Brazil processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans. China's April palm oil imports decreased by 6.35% month - on - month but increased by 6.44% year - on - year, and rapeseed imports increased by 98.26% month - on - month and 3.92% year - on - year [16][17][18] - **逻辑分析**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory in May. Domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space is limited [19] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect short - term volatile operation and consider shorting palm oil at the upper limit of the range. For arbitrage, consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09, and go long OI91 at low prices. For options, stay on the sidelines [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose 1.5%, with the main contract closing at 454.5 cents per bushel [25] - **重要资讯**: The temperature and precipitation in the US corn - producing areas are abnormal. Argentina will extend the tax exemption for wheat exports. Heavy rainfall is affecting the US corn belt. As of May 15, US corn export inspection volume increased week - on - week. On May 21, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the price in the North China production area was also stable [26][27] - **逻辑分析**: US corn is weak, while domestic corn has stable spot prices and strong futures support [28] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, the outer - market July corn has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and you can try to go long on July corn. For arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread and expand it at low prices. For options, those with spot goods can consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices [29][31][32] Pig - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating. As of May 20, the prices of piglets and sows changed slightly. On May 20, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.7% [34] - **逻辑分析**: After the previous price decline, the market's motivation to stabilize prices has increased, but the pig market is still expected to be weak [34] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect oscillating operation. For arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread. For options, sell wide straddle options [35] Peanut - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume and contract prices of peanut oil mills vary. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are weak. As of May 15, domestic peanut inventory increased, and peanut oil inventory decreased [37][38] - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term rise of peanuts in October is limited [39] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for October peanuts. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [41][42][43] Egg - **重要资讯**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased. The weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. The production and circulation inventory decreased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased [45][46][49] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and stay on the sidelines [50] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, close out short positions and stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage, go long on August eggs and short on September eggs. For options, stay on the sidelines [50][51][52] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the de - stocking was faster than the same period. In 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased, and the import volume also increased. The mainstream apple prices in the origin were stable, and the profit of apple storage merchants increased [54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is launched. The new fruit season's weather has affected the fruit setting in some areas, and the apple price is expected to be slightly stronger [55] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, go long on AP10 at low prices. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [56] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose 0.44 (0.67%) to 66.12 cents per pound [58] - **重要资讯**: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In April 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic spot trading of domestic cotton changed little, and the basis was relatively strong [59][60] - **交易逻辑**: Due to the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the cotton market is expected to be strong [61] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [64][67]

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 燃料油日报 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn 第一部分 相关数据 | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/20 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/4/23 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3074 | 3042 | 3057 | 3068 | 32 | 17 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 15.8 | 15.6 | 14.7 | 25.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 38620 | 46170 | 0 | -9670 | | LU主力 | 3571 | 3556 | 3647 | 3507 | 15 | -76 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain macro - economic factors. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by cost and low inventory, with a relatively optimistic outlook during the peak season, and the BU2506 contract is expected to trade between 3400 - 3600 [7]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing seasonal power - generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Natural gas prices in the US are expected to be volatile and weak, while in Europe, they are expected to be volatile and strong [14][15]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the third quarter, with prices expected to be well - supported [16][18]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Short - fiber prices follow the trend of raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - The bottle - chip market has improved trading volume, but the processing fee may still be under pressure [24]. - PVC is in a short - term price - oscillation state and a long - term supply - surplus situation; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [27][28]. - Plastic and PP are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the medium and short - term [29]. - The price of soda ash is expected to decline due to cost reduction and lack of significant driving factors [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and enter the off - season, with mid - term concerns about cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34]. - Methanol is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [37]. - Urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory state, with a focus on policy changes [39]. - The corrugated and box - board paper market is expected to rebound due to tariff relaxation, but policy continuity and other factors need to be monitored [40][41]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, with slow demand release [43]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term but faces challenges in the long - term [44]. - For natural rubber, the RU 09 contract should hold short positions, and the NR 07 contract should be observed [47]. - For paper pulp, the SP 07 contract should be observed [49]. - For butadiene rubber, the BR 07 contract should be observed, and relevant spreads and options should be operated according to specific strategies [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $62.56, down $0.13 (- 0.21%); Brent2507 settled at $65.38, down $0.16 (- 0.24%); SC2507 rose 3.2 to 464.6 yuan/barrel, and 3.2 to 467.8 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Israel is reported to be preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; the EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to short - term price volatility, and the long - term supply surplus pressure is difficult to resolve [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation is strong, and medium - term is weak; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options are on hold [3][4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3523 points (- 0.51%) at night; BU2509 closed at 3450 points (- 0.17%) at night [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and South China have different trends, affected by supply, demand, and crude oil prices [4][5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support and low inventory support the price, and the peak - season outlook is optimistic [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4236 (- 0.19%) at night; PG2507 closed at 4160 (- 0.36%) at night [7]. - **Related News**: The market in South China, East China, and Shandong has different trends, affected by supply and demand [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost increases, supply rises, and demand in the off - season is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and weakness [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 3031 (- 0.13%) at night; LU07 closed at 3525 (- 1.04%) at night [10]. - **Related News**: China's fuel oil imports increased in April; Russia's exports increased; Saudi Arabia may increase crude oil power - generation [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, and LU 7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high prices [13]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.427 (+ 10%); TTF closed at 36.979 (+ 4.98%); JKM closed at 12.595 (+ 5.09%) [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: US inventory accumulation is higher than average, with supply and demand changes; European prices are affected by geopolitics and supply reduction [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: US natural gas is volatile and weak, while European natural gas is volatile and strong [15]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6668 (- 1.24%) during the day and 6706 (+ 0.57%) at night [15]. - **Related News**: Northeast PX device starts maintenance; polyester production and sales are weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term start - up rate changes little, and the supply - demand situation is tight in the third quarter [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4732 (- 0.92%) during the day and 4750 (+ 0.38%) at night [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some PTA devices have start - up and restart changes [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the third - quarter supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4413 (+ 0.34%) during the day and 4416 (+ 0.07%) at night [18]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some MEG devices have start - up and shutdown changes [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6506 (- 0.58%) during the day and 6506 (0%) at night [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; on hold for arbitrage; on hold for options [20][21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6022 (- 1.08%) during the day and 6028 (+ 0.10%) at night [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes are mostly lowered [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with improved trading volume but processing fees under pressure [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [24][25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices are slightly adjusted, and caustic soda prices rise slightly [25]. - **Related News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers increase the purchase price of caustic soda [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a short - term oscillation and long - term surplus situation; caustic soda demand has uncertainties [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - sold on rebounds; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling; on hold for arbitrage and options [27][28]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fall in some regions, and PP prices have slight fluctuations [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being realized, and demand is weak, so they are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices in the medium and short - term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closes at 1280 yuan/ton (- 0.3%), and the SA9 - 1 spread is 6 yuan/ton [29]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash enterprises start maintenance, and the market is lightly adjusted [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to decrease in the short - term, but the market trades the post - maintenance surplus situation, and demand is weak [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost reduction leads to price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closes at 1025 yuan/ton (0.69%), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 56 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related News**: Glass prices in different regions have different trends, and the LPR is lowered [33][34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are in a bottom - seeking trend, with supply decline and inventory pressure in the off - season [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are volatile and weak; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures close at 2269 (- 0.53%) at night [34]. - **Related News**: Northwest methanol signing volume decreases [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is high, imports will increase, and domestic supply is loose, so it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures close at 1849 (+ 0.11%) [37]. - **Related News**: Urea production and inventory changes, and export policies are discussed [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term long on pullbacks; 91 positive spread layout at low prices; sell put options [39][40]. Corrugated and Box - Board Paper - **Related News**: Paper prices rise, and waste yellow - board paper prices rise [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tariff relaxation promotes export recovery and price rebound, but factors such as policy continuity need to be monitored [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The market is stable, with weak demand [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, with slow demand release and stable cost support [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and import and arrival data change [43][44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term is expected to be stable, but the long - term faces challenges from real - estate demand and inventory [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for single - side trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09, JRU10, NR07, TF08, and BR07 all decline [45][46]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Thailand's rubber exports and Japan's inventory have changes [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the RU09 contract; observe the NR07 contract; on hold for arbitrage and options [47]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP07 contract closes at 5424 (+ 0.26%) [48]. - **Related News**: Two major state - owned enterprises in the pulp industry adjust management, which may enhance pricing power [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: CME wood prices and domestic paper - industry inventory have negative impacts on SP [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP07 contract; on hold for arbitrage [49]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR07 closes at 12095 (- 0.45%) [50]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene inventory and tire exports have impacts on spreads [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR07 contract; reduce positions and observe the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's high [52].

2025 年 5 月 20 日 银河能化-20250520 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-20） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 62.69 涨 0.20 美元/桶，环比+0.32%；Brent2507 合约 65.54 涨 0.13 美元/桶，环比+0.20%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 0.3 至 461.4 元/桶，夜盘涨 4.0 至 465.4 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.72 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以解决长达三年之久的 冲突，但在两小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯总统普京那里获得重大让步。 欧盟执委会副主席东布洛夫斯基表示，欧盟将于本周向 G7 财长提议降低目前每桶 60 美元 的俄罗斯海运石油价格上限，作为对俄罗斯新制裁方案的一部分。了解讨论情况的欧盟官 员说，欧盟将提议降至每桶 50 美元。 伊朗国家媒体周一援引伊朗副外长马吉德·塔赫特-拉万奇的话说，如果美国坚持要求伊朗 停止铀浓缩活动，伊朗和美国之间的核谈判将不会取得任何进展。 截止 5 月 13 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际 ...

库存高位，成本驱动乏力，纸价偏稳 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比持平。② 供应端分化：停产企业暂未恢复正常生产，随着新增装置生产 趋稳，行业供应有增量趋势。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：部分阔叶浆贸易商捂盘惜售，流通货 源阶段性收紧，助推价格反弹。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场整体趋稳。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周整体偏稳运行。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GA ...