Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. The iron - water output may recover next week, and the steel cost is supported. Although the seasonal decline of building material demand exists, the manufacturing demand still provides support. Short - term exports continue to be high, and the steel price presents a volatile and moderately strong trend [7]. - The trading strategies include maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend for unilateral trading, suggesting to short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio for arbitrage, and suggesting to wait and see for options [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Current Situation**: This week, the iron - water output declined, and the five major steel products continued to reduce production, but the reduction speed slowed down. Rebar production increased while hot - rolled production decreased rapidly. The total steel inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, with the social inventory depletion faster than the factory inventory. Rebar demand improved month - on - month, but hot - rolled demand declined rapidly due to temperature and capital conditions [4][7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the iron - water output may recover as blast furnace profits have been repaired. The supply of coal mines may shrink due to environmental protection, and steel mills have restocking expectations. The cost of steel is supported. The steel price shows a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. Follow - up attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (+30), and the summary price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+40) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China was - 54.26 yuan (+3), and the valley - rate electric furnace profit was +111 yuan (+3). Long - process steel maintained a small profit [4][29]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real Estate Data**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first, second, and third - tier cities showed varying degrees of decline [31]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month [31][36]. - **Social Financing**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.87%. The new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. The government bonds and corporate bonds financing provided strong support, but the long - term investment demand of enterprises was insufficient, and the consumer and mortgage credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [35][36]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 226.55 million tons (- 2.65), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.9% (+0.4). The small - sample rebar production was 181.68 million tons (+2.90), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons (- 16.8) [4][54][60]. - **Demand**: The small - sample rebar apparent demand was 208.64 million tons (+5.55), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 298.28 million tons (- 13.69). The building material demand was affected by temperature and funds, and the manufacturing demand still had support. The export of steel products continued to be high in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.26 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 25.7 million tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.37 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.61 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 5.76 million tons [4].

通货花生价格回落 花生盘面震荡回落 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 花生策略推荐 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 期权策略：卖出pk603-C-8200期权策略。 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 交易逻辑：花生成交量增加，河南通货花生价格回落，山东花生价格稳 ...

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Domestic Sugar Prices Plummet, International Sugar Prices Weaken [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the crushing phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The short - term trading range of US sugar is expected to move down [3]. - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixes, high production costs, and the price approaching the out - of - quota cost line, there is some support for the price. The sugar price is trending down and may remain weak in the short term [3]. - For trading strategies: in the unilateral market, pay attention to whether the previous low of foreign sugar can be effectively broken. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak in the short term, but be cautious with short positions as domestic support policies may emerge. For arbitrage, go long on January contracts and short on May contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar is in the crushing phase, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The short - term trading range of US sugar is expected to move down [3]. - Domestic market: Sugar mills are starting to crush, increasing supply and sales pressure. But tightened imports, high costs, and the price near the out - of - quota cost line provide support [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Pay attention to whether the previous low of foreign sugar can be broken. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak in the short term, but be cautious with short positions due to possible support policies [4]. - Arbitrage: Long January contracts and short May contracts [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4] 3.2 Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - The 2025/26 sugar surplus is expected to decrease. The ISO predicts a 1.8177 - billion - ton production (up 3.15% year - on - year) and a 1.8014 - billion - ton consumption (up 0.6% year - on - year), with a 1.63 - million - ton surplus.嘉利高 estimates a larger surplus of 7.2 million tons [6]. 2.2 Brazil - Sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be at a high level, with an estimate of 45.02 million tons by Conab [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region dropped significantly, while ethanol production increased. The sugar production was 983,000 tons, up 8.69% year - on - year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 2.09% year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports declined. In November, exports were 3.3023 million tons, down 2.59% year - on - year. As of November in the 2025/26 season, cumulative exports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [21]. 2.3 Thailand - The new 25/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in sugar production of about 1 million tons, and exports are also expected to increase by 1 million tons [26]. 2.4 India - In the 25/26 season, sugar production is increasing. As of December 15, 2025, the sugar production reached 7.825 million tons, up 27.69% year - on - year [32]. 3.3 Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Domestic Sugar Mills - In Guangxi, as of December 17 - 18, 69 sugar mills have started crushing, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 572,000 tons. The mainstream quotation of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5,270 - 5,380 yuan/ton [36]. - In Yunnan, as of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills have started crushing. The cumulative sugar production was 44,800 tons, and the sales volume was 32,200 tons [36]. 3.2 Import Data - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.3416 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49% [44]. - In October 2025, the import of syrup and premixes decreased. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import decreased by 963,600 tons year - on - year [44]. - The actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in November was 243,500 tons, and the expected arrival in December was 232,400 tons [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of US corn in December has increased, but the production is at a high level. In the short - term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The 03 contract of US corn is expected to have strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The import of US corn into China is now profitable, with higher profits from Brazilian imports. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply, a continuous increase in port inventories, and weak port prices. It is expected that there will be another selling pressure on Northeast corn by the end of December. In the short - term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream demand for replenishment is rigid, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, causing the spot price of corn to continue to decline. The price difference between North China wheat and corn remains at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short - term, leading to a decrease in the purchase price. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at the bottom, while the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited. For starch, the operating rate of starch factories has decreased, downstream提货 has decreased, and starch inventories have increased and remain at a high level. As the spot price of corn continues to decline, the spot price of starch is also weakening, and the profits of North China starch factories have decreased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will fluctuate weakly following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel. Long - term buying of 07 corn below 2240 and try to buy 05 corn around 2220 [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Situation - **US Corn Export and Price Trend** - In December, the export of US corn was raised, and it showed a strong - side narrow - range oscillation. The 03 contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. The import tariff of US corn into China is 11%, and the import cost of US corn in February is around 2274 yuan per ton, with good import profits. As of December 18, the import profit from Brazil for the March arrival at the Guangdong port was 447 yuan per ton. As of December 16, the weekly export inspection of US corn was 1.58 million tons, with a cumulative export of 22.5 million tons. The export to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 0 tons, accounting for 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [8][9][10]. - **Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production** - As of December 2, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 87,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production decreased. The 03 contract of US corn oscillated at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [11][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Situation - **Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises** - The corn inventory of feed enterprises increased but was less than the same period last year. As of December 18, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 29.98 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises slightly decreased. In the 51st week of 2025 (December 11 - December 17), 1.4129 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises nationwide, a 0.38 - million - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 17, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 324 tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous week and a 26.7% decrease year - on - year [17][19][20]. - **Port Inventory** - The corn inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports increased. As of December 12, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.499 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 191,000 tons, a 125,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 174,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the imported barley was 603,000 tons, a 95,000 - ton increase from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.23 million tons, a 208,000 - ton increase week - on - week [21][23]. - **Grain Sales Progress** - The grain sales progress accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 42%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 4%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 6% [24][26][27]. - **Starch Situation** - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises decreased. From December 11 - December 17, the national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, and the starch output was 328,300 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.31%, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The spot price of North China corn and starch decreased, and the by - product price remained stable, resulting in a decrease in enterprise profits. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 11 yuan, a 18 - yuan decrease from the previous week, and in Shandong it was 2 yuan, a 17 - yuan decrease. Downstream提货 decreased, the operating rate declined, and starch inventories increased. As of December 17, the corn starch inventory was 1.074 million tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 2.4%, a monthly increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3% [29][31]. - **Substitute Situation** - The wheat price was basically stable, with the North China arrival price around 2490 yuan per ton and a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn decreased, the North China corn price was weak, the Northeast corn price was stable, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn decreased, as well as the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract [32][37]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From December 11 - December 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 73 yuan per head, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 234 yuan per head, an 18 - yuan increase from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.23 yuan per bird, compared with - 0.07 yuan last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.48 yuan last week [42][48]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup this week was 50.2%, a 3.06% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 51.66%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.66%, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 65.47%, a 5.0% decrease from the previous week [49][51]. - **Price and Spread** - The report also presented various price trends and spreads of corn, starch, wheat, sorghum, etc., including the price trends of Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, as well as the price differences between wheat and corn, sorghum and corn, and various contract spreads of corn and starch [52][54][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity utilization, inventory levels, macro - economic indicators, and international events. The trading strategies vary daily based on these factors, with suggestions of holding, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines for both L and PP contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market mostly shows fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. The trading volume is often limited due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing attitudes. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, the L主力 2605 contract closed at 6434 points, down 42 points or 0.65%. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE market was between 6390 - 6850 yuan/ton [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also in a state of adjustment. Some regions have structural supply shortages, but the overall trading atmosphere is weak. On 12 - 25 - 19, the PP主力 2605 contract closed at 6248 points, down 31 points or 0.49% [1] Important Information - **Domestic Economy**: In 2025, the total social electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time, and the total installed power generation capacity exceeds 380 million kilowatts. The new energy industry has developed rapidly, with new installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching about 370 million kilowatts [2] - **Industry Development**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Chinese synthetic resin industry has achieved high - quality development, with the largest production capacity in the world. The ethylene self - sufficiency rate has increased from 73% to 90%. The industry has diversified raw material routes, optimized product structures, and achieved independent breakthroughs in technology and equipment [9] Logical Analysis - **Production and Consumption**: In October, the apparent consumption of PE and PP increased, with a combined total of 735.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The production capacity utilization rate of PE and PP also showed different trends, with some periods of increase and some of decrease [16] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the M1 and M2 growth rates, the China Bond New Composite Index, and the logistics industry prosperity index have an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in November, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, with the scissors difference at - 3.1% [10] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, it was suggested to stay on the sidelines for the L主力 2605 contract and the PP主力 2605 contract, and pay attention to the support at 6200 points for the PP contract [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines, but there are also suggestions to try long or short positions in certain situations [3] - **Options Trading**: Generally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3114 (down 8 from the previous close), JD05 at 3534 (down 26), JD09 at 3996 (down 56). The 01 - 05 spread was - 420 (up 18), 05 - 09 was - 462 (up 30), 09 - 01 was 882 (down 48). The ratios of 01, 05, 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 3.00 yuan/jin (unchanged), and the main sales area average price was 3.22 yuan/jin (unchanged). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan/jin) [2] - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 0.15 yuan (down 0.04 yuan from the previous day). The average price of culled chickens was 3.87 yuan/jin (down 0.02 yuan), the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan (up 0.04 yuan), and the prices of feed such as corn, soybeans, and egg - laying chicken compound feed also had some changes [2] 2. Fundamental Information - **Price Trends**: The average price of the main producing areas remained unchanged, and the average price of the main sales areas increased by 0.02 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, and the egg prices in various regions were mostly stable with some local fluctuations [4] - **Egg - laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 is approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5] - **Chicken Culling and Sales**: In the week of December 5, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.82 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age was 488 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7115 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [5][6] - **Profit and Inventory**: As of November 21, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of December 5, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.04 days and 0.07 days respectively compared to the previous week [6] 3. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions on dips [7] 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions on dips for far - month contracts [8] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has strong fundamentals with multiple positive factors supporting it. There is a high probability that US cotton will move in a range-bound manner, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a moderately bullish trend. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6][7]. - The cotton yarn industry has a weak downstream demand. The cotton yarn market has a light trading volume, and the weaving mills have high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream restocking [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: Most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts closed lower. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940, down 60; the CY01 contract closed at 19,855, down 40 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68; the CY IndexC32S price was 20,830, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton, the 1 - 5 - month spread was -5, down 15; in cotton yarn, the 1 - 5 - month spread was -185, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In November 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was about 150,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the total imported cotton yarn volume was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 40,000 tons [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 11,800 tons and a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% [4]. - The average temperature in the US cotton - growing areas was 49.79°F, 3.21°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.05 inches, 0.28 inches lower than the same period last year. The temperature in Texas increased and precipitation decreased, and the La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to drought during the sowing season [5]. - **Trading Logic**: Positive factors in the market support a strong cotton fundamentals. Technically, cotton has increased in positions and broken through the previous platform, with potential for further upward movement [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: US cotton is likely to move in a range - bound manner, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend moderately bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Zhengzhou cotton is moderately bullish. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, mainly for rigid demand. Weaving mills have high inventory levels, but there is still restocking demand in some areas. The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable to slightly weak last week, and spinning mills with high inventory levels promoted sales by reducing prices [9]. - The trading volume in the all - cotton greige fabric market is light, with only small orders in some areas. Weaving mills have high inventory levels and limited destocking effects [9]. 3.3 Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton and cotton yarn contracts [15][18][22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out, with a short - term expectation of a slightly bullish and oscillating trend. Domestic sugar prices are trending downward and are likely to remain weak in the short term, but there is some support at the current price level [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 18, 2025, SR09 closed at 5,120, down 34 (-0.66%); SR01 closed at 5,192, down 23 (-0.44%); SR05 closed at 5,102, down 37 (-0.72%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed a general downward trend. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5390, down 20; in Kunming, it was 5220, down 25 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis in different regions varied, with Liuzhou at 198, Kunming at 28, etc. [3]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread between SR05 - SR01 was - 90, down 14; SR09 - SR05 was 18, up 3; SR09 - SR01 was - 72, down 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand and their spreads with domestic prices were provided. For example, the quota - free price of Brazilian sugar was 5127, with a spread of 263 compared to Liuzhou [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. As of December 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased [5]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar - making season is approaching the end, the supply pressure is easing, and international sugar prices are showing signs of bottoming out. Domestically, although new sugar production is increasing and sales pressure is rising, factors such as tightened imports of syrups and premixes, high production costs, and the current price approaching the out - of - quota cost line provide some support to the price [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices are likely to remain weak, but the downward space is limited [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the January contract and short on the May contract [11]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories, monthly production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in different regions and contracts of sugar, which can be used for further analysis of the sugar market [12][16][17][21][26][27].

1. Report Information - Report title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 1000 closed at 7,272.40, down 0.22%; trading volume was 20,004, down 9%; turnover was 34.9 billion, down 5% [3] - IM2512 closed at 7,275.40, down 0.26%; trading volume was 78,623, down 36%; turnover was 11.48 billion, down 36%; open interest was 50,338, down 35,409 [3] - IM2601 closed at 7,213.00, down 0.16%; trading volume was 39,669, down 9%; turnover was 5.74 billion, down 8%; open interest was 84,085, up 11,570 [3] - IM2603 closed at 7,066.00, down 0.03%; trading volume was 87,621, down 10%; turnover was 12.41 billion, down 9%; open interest was 166,683, up 7,011 [8] - IM2606 closed at 6,822.20, down 0.05%; trading volume was 18,703, down 25%; turnover was 2.56 billion, down 24%; open interest was 73,498, down 1,446 [8] - Total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 224,616, down 65,504 from the previous day; total open interest was 374,604, down 18,274 from the previous day [5] 2.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 206.4 points, up 8.34 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.46% [5] - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.67 points, 0.66 points, 0.67 points, and 42.34 points respectively [5] 2.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IM2512, IM2601, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts are provided [19][21][23] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 300 closed at 4,552.79, down 0.59%; trading volume was 15,168, down 15%; turnover was 38.21 billion, down 16% [24] - IF2512 closed at 4,550.40, down 0.73%; trading volume was 53,558, down 37%; turnover was 7.32 billion, down 37%; open interest was 37,690, down 24,245 [24] - IF2601 closed at 4,531.20, down 0.73%; trading volume was 30,353, up 7%; turnover was 4.13 billion, up 7%; open interest was 54,550, up 8,789 [24] - IF2603 closed at 4,505.00, down 0.68%; trading volume was 50,112, down 18%; turnover was 6.78 billion, down 18%; open interest was 150,187, up 6,425 [24] - IF2606 closed at 4,455.40, down 0.70%; trading volume was 11,980, down 20%; turnover was 1.6 billion, down 20%; open interest was 39,869, up 1,704 [24] - Total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 146,003, down 43,587 from the previous day; total open interest was 282,296, down 7,327 from the previous day [25] 3.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 47.79 points, up 0.09 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.16% [25] - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 2.62 points, 6.24 points, 7.43 points, and 37.78 points respectively [25] 3.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts are provided [37][39][40] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - CSI 500 closed at 7,100.84, down 0.52%; trading volume was 15,490, down 11%; turnover was 27.55 billion, down 9% [42] - IC2512 closed at 7,101.00, down 0.71%; trading volume was 46,235, down 39%; turnover was 6.6 billion, down 39%; open interest was 34,085, down 22,568 [42] - IC2601 closed at 7,069.80, down 0.45%; trading volume was 30,418, up 4%; turnover was 4.32 billion, up 5%; open interest was 57,737, up 7,456 [42] - IC2603 closed at 6,973.60, down 0.27%; trading volume was 57,027, down 10%; turnover was 7.97 billion, down 9%; open interest was 127,506, up 5,666 [42] - IC2606 closed at 6,776.00, down 0.26%; trading volume was 12,826, down 20%; turnover was 1.74 billion, down 19%; open interest was 44,391, up 1,189 [42] - Total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 146,506, down 38,325 from the previous day; total open interest was 263,719, down 8,257 from the previous day [43] 4.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 127.24 points, up 14.59 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.16% [43] - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.82 points, 0.37 points, 0.82 points, and 66.05 points respectively [43] 4.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IC2512, IC2601, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts are provided [53][55][57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - SSE 50 closed at 2,998.52, up 0.23%; trading volume was 3,255, down 15%; turnover was 8.27 billion, down 23% [59] - IH2512 closed at 2,995.00, down 0.02%; trading volume was 22,829, down 37%; turnover was 2.05 billion, down 37%; open interest was 16,779, down 11,717 [59] - IH2601 closed at 2,989.20, up 0.02%; trading volume was 10,970, up 14%; turnover was 0.98 billion, up 15%; open interest was 14,464, up 2,148 [59] - IH2603 closed at 2,986.00, down 0.05%; trading volume was 21,452, down 13%; turnover was 1.92 billion, down 13%; open interest was 43,414, up 1,547 [59] - IH2606 closed at 2,976.00, up 0.05%; trading volume was 3,338, down 21%; turnover was 0.3 billion, down 21%; open interest was 11,494, up 20 [59] - Total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 58,589, down 16,253 from the previous day; total open interest was 86,151, down 8,002 from the previous day [59] 4.2 Basis and Premium/Discount - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 12.52 points, down 1.44 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -1.65% [60] - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 9.95 points, 8.67 points, 9.95 points, and 27.98 points respectively [60] 4.3 Main Seats - Details of trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IH2512, IH2601, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts are provided [74][76][78]