Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn price has declined, and the yield per unit will continue to be adjusted downward, but the production remains high, with the US corn expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,135 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1.109 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week, a monthly decline of 1.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Short - sell the 01 corn futures contract on rebounds, and wait for the 05 corn futures contract. Try to narrow the price difference between the 01 corn and starch futures contracts when it is high. [7][8] - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 futures contracts have increased, with price increases of 25, 12, 9, 23, 21, and 8 respectively, and price increase rates of 1.13%, 0.53%, 0.39%, 0.91%, 0.81%, and 0.30% respectively. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and CS2601 have decreased, with decreases of 2.88%, 2.61%, and 1.91% respectively, while the trading volumes of C2509, CS2605, and CS2509 have increased, with increases of 21.45%, 166.65%, and 137.37% respectively. The open interests of all contracts have increased, with increases ranging from 2.03% to 5.54%. [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in various regions have different degrees of increase, with the largest increase of 40 yuan in Nantong Port. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 288 to 117 yuan. The spot prices of starch in various regions are stable, and the basis of starch ranges from 81 to 301 yuan. [1] - **Price Differences**: Among the corn inter - delivery price differences, C01 - C05 is - 44 with a 13 - yuan increase, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a 3 - yuan increase, and C09 - C01 is 63 with a 16 - yuan decrease. Among the starch inter - delivery price differences, CS01 - CS05 is - 64 with a 2 - yuan increase, CS05 - CS09 is - 32 with a 13 - yuan increase, and CS09 - CS01 is 96 with a 15 - yuan decrease. Among the cross - variety price differences, CS09 - C09 is 348 with a 1 - yuan decrease, CS01 - C01 is 315 with a 2 - yuan decrease, and CS05 - C05 is 335 with a 9 - yuan increase. [1] Part 2: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. The closing prices of C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE have decreased by 1.0. [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract price difference. [12][14][19]

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,336 | 15 | 0.28% | 2,917 | 134 | 18,406 | 423 | | SR01 | | 5,370 | 17 | 0.32% | 175,985 | -3844 | 417,739 | 1039 | | SR05 | | 5,319 | 17 | 0.32% | 46,621 | 4626 | 179,121 | 8502 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 第一部分 | | | 数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 涨跌 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | | 增减幅 | | PK604 26 | 7862 | 0.33% | 40,309 | -53.80% | 20,396 | | -2.23% | | PK510 6 | 8166 | 0.07% | 111 | 152.27% | 641 | | 2.89% | | PK601 64 | 7858 | 0.81% | 112,375 | 6.53% | 118,990 | | -7.37% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 山东济宁 山东临沂 日照花生粕 日照豆粕 | 河南南阳 | | | | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | | 今日报价 7600 | 7200 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply Side**: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On November 24, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. For ferrosilicon, with supply and demand both decreasing and cost support, and its low valuation, short - selling is not advisable. For silicomanganese, in the game between weak supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trading strategies are: in the single - side market, expect bottom - range oscillation; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5456, down 16 (daily) and 206 (weekly), with a trading volume of 360,902 (up 25,320 daily) and an open interest of 205,123 (up 2936 daily). The SM main contract closed at 5630, up 24 (daily) and down 162 (weekly), with a trading volume of 202,413 (up 64,380 daily) and an open interest of 397,984 (down 41,457 daily) [2] - **Spot**: Ferrosilicon spot prices showed mixed trends on the 24th, with Inner Mongolia's spot price down 50 yuan/ton and Jiangsu's up 120 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese spot prices also showed mixed trends, with Ningxia's spot price up 20 yuan/ton and Guangxi's down 20 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin were stable with a slight increase [2][5] - **Basis/Spread**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese basis and spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 174, down 40 (daily) and 44 (weekly) [2] - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin showed a slight increase, and the prices of semi - coke small materials in various regions remained stable [2] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies** - Single - side: Due to the weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, expect bottom - range oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] - **Important Information** - On the 24th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed different prices for different grades [7] - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the high inventory restricts the rebound strength of nickel prices. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the production of pure nickel will significantly decline from November to December. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options at resistance levels [6]. - For stainless steel, the overall trading atmosphere is still weak, with terminal demand in the off - season. The price is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The strategy is to sell on rebounds for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 308,000 tons. LME inventory is 254,000 tons, increasing by 2,082 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 39,800 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 52,000 tons, decreasing by 855 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period [17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand of Refined Nickel - **Supply**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. The net import was 47,200 tons, compared with a net export of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, it turned to net export. The supply from January to October was 383,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. It is expected that the total output in November will remain high at 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month [25]. - **Demand**: From January to October, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will be more obvious. In October, the downstream demand for nickel fell below the 50 boom - bust line [29]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore is stable but under great pressure. The willingness of Philippine nickel mines to hold prices is strong, but the high - nickel iron market has limited ability to absorb nickel ore, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The premium of domestic - trade nickel ore in November was flat month - on - month [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increased, and the price was under pressure. The production of China + Indonesia's NPI from January to October showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory of NPI in China also increased [34][36]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series weakened. The price of chrome ore has been declining continuously. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in December 2025 decreased month - on - month [38]. - **Cost Inversion of Cold - Rolled Products**: The prices of various raw materials such as nickel ore, high - nickel iron, and chromium series showed a downward trend from November 17th to 21st [43]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to October, the combined stainless - steel crude - steel output of China and Indonesia increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the output decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, exports remained flat year - on - year, and net exports increased by 14% year - on - year [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate and provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to September reached 28%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%. From January to October, the sales were 12.911 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The power cell production also increased. However, the off - season is coming, and a decline in the power sector is likely [61]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year. US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year, and European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports from January to October increased by 87% year - on - year [68]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to October, the cumulative output of nickel sulfate decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The output of ternary precursors decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons, and the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons [70]. - **Raw Materials**: The output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons, and the output of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate has stimulated the recovery of intermediate product output [74]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Market - There is a significant domestic surplus of pure nickel due to a large increase in imports [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the stock and commodity markets both declined. Overseas, the expectation of US interest rate cuts was dashed, leading to a decline in US stocks and a contraction in global stock market liquidity. Domestically, economic data was weak, new energy negotiations were pending, and institutional portfolio adjustments contributed to the decline. In the fourth quarter, both policies and performance entered a lull, with a weak fundamental outlook and a lack of a clear narrative in the market. The market is more looking forward to the spring market. The soda ash market showed a weak trend as expected last week, with weekly lows approaching the June low. The soda ash futures price dropped significantly due to the cold repair expectation of float glass production lines on the demand side and the intensification of negative feedback. It is expected that the price will oscillate and recover next week, but the medium - term price range will still move down. For glass, the 01 contract price fell below 1000. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. The short - term focus is on the effect of manufacturers' price - for - volume strategy and daily sales data. If the terminal demand does not improve substantially, the glass price may still have room to decline. [15][24] Summary According to the Directory 1. Soda Ash Analysis 1.1 Soda Ash Supply - This week, soda ash production was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons (- 2.5%). Both light and heavy soda decreased, with light soda down 4000 tons and heavy soda down 15,000 tons week - on - week. The decline in production was due to the reduced load of some devices such as Henan Junhua, Jiangsu Jingshen, etc., while Gansu Jinchang's production recovery offset part of the reduction. The raw salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price increased slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the soda ash by the Chinese joint - alkali process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali process was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [8] 1.2 Soda Ash Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 784,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 416,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 3.1%), and that for light soda was 368,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 7.3%). The daily output of float glass was 158,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons per day, and the output of photovoltaic glass was stable at 89,000 tons. The futures price dropped significantly this week, mid - stream shipments were at a historical high, some heavy soda manufacturers in Qinghai lowered prices, while light soda sales were good, and prices increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton in various regions. The weekly shipments of soda ash in the spot and futures markets were about 200,000 tons, a significant week - on - week increase. The delivery price in Shahe was about 1130 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan), corresponding to SA01 - 30, and the basis strengthened. Currently, the mid - stream inventory is large, with a structural inventory build - up, but the overall inventory pressure is not great. With the weakening demand for float glass downstream and the stable coal price, the price has been weak recently. [11] 1.3 Soda Ash Inventory - Upstream: Soda ash factory inventory decreased to 1.644 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,000 tons. Among them, heavy soda inventory decreased by 20,000 tons, and light soda inventory decreased by 43,000 tons. In terms of regions, the factory inventory in the northwest decreased by 47,000 tons to 657,000 tons, and that in the southwest decreased by 1000 tons to 607,000 tons, while the inventory in the north increased by 3500 tons to 224,000 tons. Mid - stream: The mid - stream inventory decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 2% to 653,000 tons, and there were 0 warehouse receipts. Downstream: In float glass enterprises, 33% of the sample factories had a soda ash inventory of 20.87 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 days. [14] 2. Glass Analysis 2.1 Glass Supply - The daily output of float glass was 158,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons per day, with a production line in the northeast shutting down. Currently, there are 222 operating production lines. According to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 206.84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - gas as fuel was 25.79 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel was 8.52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.00 yuan/ton. The contraction in supply is mainly driven by environmental protection policies rather than market self - clearing, which is difficult to fundamentally reverse the supply - demand pattern. If the price continues to fall, the number of production lines with cold repair plans before the Spring Festival may increase. [18] 2.2 Glass Demand - On the demand side, Hubei manufacturers lowered prices twice this week, and Shahe manufacturers lowered prices on Monday. According to Longzhong, after Minghong's price adjustment to 1040 yuan/ton, the sales - to - production ratio was still weak. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of the national深加工 sample enterprises was 9.9 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Since November, the average number of orders held by deep - processing samples in each region has decreased compared with the beginning of the month. The weak order situation has also led to some deep - processing factories having temporary holidays. Currently, the number of order days held by the surveyed deep - processing enterprises is mostly 2 - 5 days, with some orders scheduled for 7 - 15 days, and a few engineering orders with longer schedules. Near the end of the year, deep - processing enterprises still remain cautious about signing debt - related orders. This week (from November 7 to November 13, 2025), the operating rate of the Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 76.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. [21] 2.3 Glass Market Performance and Strategy - The price of the glass 01 contract fell below 1000. Due to the cyclical downturn in the real estate market, the improvement in the spot - side fundamentals was limited, demand was weak, and the large mid - stream inventory was a major concern. The rapid decline in the soda ash futures price this week weakened the cost support for glass. In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of glass was 158,200 tons. The short - term focus is on the effect of manufacturers' price - for - volume strategy and core daily sales data. If manufacturers in major production areas such as Hubei continue to lower prices but the terminal demand does not improve substantially and the sales - to - production ratio fails to recover, the glass price may still have room to decline. The trading volume of the glass 01 contract reached 1.99 million hands, a year - on - year increase of 86.6%. Attention should be paid to regulatory risks. As the near - month price falls, the market has started the cold repair expectation logic. Attention can be paid to the reverse - spread strategy and the strategy of going long on FG05 and short on SA05. It is expected that the market will enter an oscillation next week, and the medium - term trend is still weak. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the rubber market in the week of November 2025, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand, inventory, and downstream consumption. It also provides trading strategies and discusses the impact of events like African rubber becoming a substitute for NR futures and Thailand's abnormal weather. Overall, the market shows complex trends with both positive and negative factors affecting different segments of the rubber industry [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price**: Natural rubber in Qingdao (Thai mixed) was reported at 14,620 yuan/ton (-36 yuan/ton), and Shanghai full - latex at 14,850 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton). For cis - butadiene rubber, Shandong Daqing BR9000 was at 10,530 yuan/ton (+160 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Supply**: Yunnan's natural rubber production stopped early, and continuous rainfall in southern Thailand led to higher overseas raw material prices. For cis - butadiene rubber, Zhenhua restarted, Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance continued, and Maoming Petrochemical will start a 50 - day maintenance soon [2]. - **Demand**: Tire production decreased overall, with semi - steel tire production at 69.36% (-3.63%) and full - steel tire production at 62.04% (-2.25%). The end - market resisted price increases, and trading weakened [2]. - **Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory was 106.2 tons (+0.5 tons), and cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprise inventory was 3.15 tons (+0.07 tons, +2.24%) [2]. 3.2 Key Events - **Thailand's Rainfall**: On the 19th, the weighted rainfall of natural rubber production reached 55.52mm/day, a new high in nearly a year. The market may not have priced in the extreme weather [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of SHFE RU contracts decreased by 50.2% to 7.87 tons after centralized cancellation, reaching a new low since November 2012, which is favorable for natural rubber [22]. - **African Rubber as Substitute**: African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The key lies in its premium or discount. A larger discount has less impact on existing contracts, while a smaller discount or par value may attract more deliveries and impact the NR contract's pricing [27]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling the RU main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at 15,280 points. For the NR main 01 contract, also consider short - selling and set a stop - loss at 12,285 points. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for the BR main 01 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider intervening in the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 - to - 1) spread at - 4,850 points and set a stop - loss at - 4,910 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption - **Stock Market and Index**: As of November 2025, the China Securities 1000 Index rose for 7 consecutive months, reaching 7,506 points, a year - on - year increase of 45.1%. In November 2025, the European automotive industry index rose slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and also increased year - on - year for 5 consecutive months [65]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In September 2025, domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption increased for 4 consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, with the growth rate hitting a new high since January 2024 [65]. - **Tire Production**: In September 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.5% year - on - year, with a smaller increase than in August [65]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - **Qingdao Port**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31 tons (0.70%). The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 6.66 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 38.6 tons [71]. - **Mixed Base Spread**: In October, domestic mixed rubber imports decreased by 10.2% year - on - year, which is favorable for the mixed base spread. In September, global automobile sales increased by 9.1% year - on - year, also favorable for the mixed base spread [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, affected by factors such as biodiesel policies and bearish high - frequency data, the overall trend of edible oils has been weak. Although Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, the inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level with a slow reduction speed. Indonesian inventory is continuously at a low level, and the origin quotes are stable with a slight increase. Short - term palm oil lacks continuous positive factors, and the rebound height may be limited. [4][31] - Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil. Its price mainly fluctuates with the overall trend of edible oils, showing weak upward momentum but more resistance to decline. [4][31] - In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. [4][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: SPPOMA predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 10% month - on - month, significantly higher than the 4% increase in the first 15 days. ITS predicts that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20% month - on - month, with a greater decline than the 16% decrease in the first 15 days. There is a possibility that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase instead of decrease in November. Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit, lower than 4,262 ringgit in November, with the tax rate remaining at 10%. [5][8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The Indonesian government revised the calculation rule of CPO reference price and announced that the CPO export price in December is $926.14. The tax decreased from $124 to $74, a reduction of $50. Recently, the prices of fruit bunches and CPO tender in Indonesia have rebounded, currently lower than last year's level but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. [13] - **US Market**: The market rumor that the EPA proposed a RVO target of 561 million gallons for next year led to a sharp rise in the external edible oil market. However, the final US biodiesel plan has not been finalized, and the market is still waiting. The US Department of Energy plans to revoke the Clean Energy Demonstration Office and the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office, and add the Hydrocarbon and Geothermal Energy Office and the Fusion Energy Office. It also plans to review and potentially withdraw about $13 billion in unallocated funds originally intended for subsidizing wind, solar, battery, and electric vehicle projects. The price difference between US and Argentine soybean oil has been continuously narrowing and is expected to remain at a low level. [17] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 653,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,900 tons or 9.36%. The origin quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 100, and it is rumored that there were 2 ship purchases this week. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks positive drivers, with limited downward and upward space. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. [20] - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1485 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,700 tons or 0.75%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable. It is rumored that some US soybeans were purchased this week, accelerating the purchase progress. Spot trading is average, but提货 is good. It is expected that the soybean oil inventory will be difficult to increase. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Temporarily observe, and consider lightly testing long positions after a callback and stabilization. [26] - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,000. It is rumored that there was rapeseed oil import this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high, but the downstream acceptance is average. It is expected that the de - stocking trend along the coast will continue. Russia cancelled the price - reduction coefficient for food railway transportation, which is estimated to increase the transportation cost by about $10. In the short term, the overall edible oil has weak upward momentum. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much. With insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and continuous marginal de - stocking, there is still some support for the rapeseed oil price. Consider buying on dips for OI03 or 05 contracts when the rapeseed procurement is not fully liberalized. [29] Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term edible oils lack positive drivers, but the downward space is limited. There may be a technical rebound, but the rebound height may also be limited. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Observe. - **Option Strategy**: Observe. [33] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years. [37][38] - **Indonesian Palm Oil Market**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are provided, with historical comparison. [44] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA US soybean crushing volume, NOPA US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are included. [46] - **Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, soybean oil monthly import, edible oil monthly import, and port inventory are shown. [47][48] - **Domestic Market Data**: Data on domestic rapeseed oil import profit, 24 - degree palm oil import profit, soybean oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, consumption, and trading volume), palm oil supply and demand (including monthly import, monthly shipment, and weekly trading volume), rapeseed oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, import volume, and monthly consumption), edible oil spot basis (including first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic third - grade rapeseed oil), and edible oil commercial inventory (including soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil) are presented. [57][60]