1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA's December report showed an increase in US corn exports and a decrease in inventory, but the production remains at a high level, so US corn is expected to fluctuate strongly. Domestic corn has different trends in different regions, with Northeast corn being relatively strong and North China corn being weak recently. The spot price of corn is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, but there is still a risk of decline due to the potential seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and the situation of downstream inventory building. Corn starch inventory has increased this week, and due to the relatively strong price of corn and weak price of starch, corporate profitability has declined. The short - term 03 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2318, up 70 (3.02%), with a trading volume of 53,592 (down 20.97%) and an open interest of 73,742 (down 20.45%). - C2605 closed at 2274, up 17 (0.75%), with a trading volume of 221,265 (up 14.88%) and an open interest of 490,650 (up 0.67%). - C2509 closed at 2294, up 15 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 17,920 (up 93.00%) and an open interest of 43,508 (up 1.05%). - CS2601 closed at 2516, up 25 (0.99%), with a trading volume of 8,683 (down 46.50%) and an open interest of 8,472 (down 31.05%). - CS2605 closed at 2583, up 30 (1.16%), with a trading volume of 22,967 (up 28.47%) and an open interest of 44,979 (down 7.08%). - CS2509 closed at 2630, up 17 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 665 (up 154.79%) and an open interest of 1,175 (up 22.01%) [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2080, 2160, 2332, 2284, 2330, 2400, and 2460 respectively. The price changes were 0, 0, - 12, - 6, 30, 30, and 30 respectively. The basis was - 214, - 134, 38, - 10, 56, 106, and 166 respectively. - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2750, 2700, 2850, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2760 respectively, with no price changes. The basis was 167, 117, 267, 277, 217, 297, and 177 respectively [2]. Spread - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 was 44 (up 53), C05 - C09 was - 20 (up 2), C09 - C01 was - 24 (down 55). - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 67 (down 5), CS05 - CS09 was - 47 (up 13), CS09 - CS01 was 114 (down 8). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 336 (up 2), CS01 - C01 was 198 (down 45), CS05 - C05 was 309 (up 13) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis Corn - US corn is expected to fluctuate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the price of Brazilian imports in February is 2159 yuan. The FOB price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in Northeast China is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, and the spot price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, so corn has a cost - performance advantage. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The spot price of corn is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, but the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the situation of downstream inventory building [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is weak. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 110.2 million tons, an increase of 2.8 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the relatively strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability has declined. The 03 starch futures contract has followed the increase of corn, but the corn price in North China may decline in January, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to decline later. The short - term 03 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use the short - term cumulative put strategy and conduct rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spread [15][17][19].

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——增减并存，冬季检修企业增加 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of supply contraction, weak demand, and improving profits. Liquid caustic soda is expected to stabilize in the short term, and prices in Shandong may rise slightly. The futures market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in Shandong spot prices and the cost - side logic transformation caused by liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4]. - For trading strategies, a unilateral long position in caustic soda is recommended as prices may rise steadily; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, the number of caustic soda plant overhauls increased. The national sample enterprise operating load rate dropped to 88.47% (a 1.37% week - on - week decrease), and the output of 100% equivalent caustic soda decreased to 856,300 tons (a 1.52% week - on - week decrease), slightly alleviating the short - term supply pressure [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the core downstream alumina industry dropped to 80.29% (a 1.08% week - on - week decrease), weakening the support for caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber saw a slight increase in operating rates, but overall procurement remained at a just - in - time level, and most purchases were made at low prices, resulting in a lukewarm market [4]. - Inventory side: There was a significant differentiation in inventory. For liquid caustic soda, the overall sample inventory in East China decreased by 10.25%, but the factory inventory in Shandong increased by 6.01%. For flake caustic soda, due to shipping issues and hoarding by traders, the social inventory in East China surged by 55.56%, and traders faced greater pressure to sell [4]. - Profit side: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (ECU) was significantly repaired due to the sharp rebound in liquid chlorine prices, despite the decline in caustic soda prices. The profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong increased by 49.18% to 160.2 yuan/ton, which may support manufacturers' willingness to maintain production [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Caustic soda prices may rise steadily [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants was at a high level, and prices continued to decline. From November 14 to December 6, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 730 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton [7][9]. - As of December 18, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a 1.66% week - on - week increase and a 52.34% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.41%, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Different regions showed different inventory trends [11]. - The supply contradiction in the alumina spot market became more prominent. Although the operating capacity of alumina was basically stable this week, the inventory of alumina at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise. The supply contradiction is expected to continue to be reflected in limited spot transactions [15][18]. - This week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.7%, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease. Different regions had different changes in load [20]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Various indicators such as price trends, basis, open interest, and warehouse receipts of SH01 contracts are presented [24]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are shown [27]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [30]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi are shown [32]. - Caustic soda variety spread: The price spreads between different types of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [34]. - Caustic soda regional spread: The price spreads of caustic soda between different regions are presented [37]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine, are shown [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented [41]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu are presented [45]. Production Data - Caustic soda production: The production trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda are presented [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are presented [50]. New Capacity and Overhaul - New capacity: In 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production, and some projects have already been successfully launched. In the alumina industry, a large amount of new capacity is expected to be put into production at the end of this year and next year [51][52][64]. - Plant overhauls: A list of caustic soda plant overhauls in different regions and enterprises is presented [54]. Consumption Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda are presented [56][57]. Alumina - related Data - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and operating rate trends of alumina are presented [60][61]. Downstream Industry Data - Viscose staple fiber: This week, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a 1.75% week - on - week increase [66]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The operating rates in different regions had different trends, and the overall market atmosphere was stable [70]. Export Data - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda are presented [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volume trends of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are presented [76]. - Overseas alumina new capacity: In 2025, it is estimated that 4.5 million tons of new alumina capacity will be put into production overseas, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have already been put into operation, and the caustic soda procurement has been completed [81].

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 aa 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 12 月 29 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号： F03108920 投资咨询证号： Z0018403 联系方式： :lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 纯碱期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场 | （元/吨） | 2025/12/25 | 2025/12/24 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质（送到） | | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | | 华东重质（送到） | | 1200 | 1200 | 1200 | 0 | 0 | | 沙河重质（送到） | | 1130 | 1130 | 1135 | 0 | - 5 | | 西北重质（出厂） | | 820 | 820 | 830 | 0 | -10 | | 华中轻质（出厂） | | 1140 | 1140 | 1150 | 0 | -10 | | 华东轻质（出厂） | | 1140 | 1160 | 1180 | -20 | -40 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various sectors showing different trends. The stock index futures still have the potential to break through at the end of the year, while the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation. In the agricultural products sector, there are different trends in various varieties, such as the overall shock in the protein meal market and the strong domestic sugar price. In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a range - bound shock, and the double - coke shows a wide - range shock. In the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices of gold, silver, and copper are strong. In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is weak, and the asphalt is in a narrow - range shock [21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising steadily after breaking through 3900 points. The short - term shock near 4000 points increased. Before the New Year's Day, there are only three trading days, and the negative factors are limited. The index has broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system is arranged in a long position. The futures discount has continued to converge this week. The trading strategy is to go long on dips in a shock - upward trend, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The loose market capital situation at the end of the year continues to support the bond market. The bond futures market closed up last week. However, the central bank's regular meeting did not release much incremental information, and the probability of a central bank interest rate cut in the short term is not high. The trading strategy is to try to go short on TS and TF contracts at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. In Brazil, the abundant rainfall is beneficial to the soybean crop, and the expected output is increased. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still significantly in the red, and the supply is uncertain. The trading strategy is to lay out a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuated slightly downward, while the domestic sugar price remained strong. The Brazilian sugar is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with high processing costs and the upward trend of the external market providing support. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to fluctuate slightly upward at the bottom in the short term and the domestic sugar price to maintain an upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is still affected by policies. The overall oil price has rebounded, but factors such as the postponement of the US biodiesel final plan and the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to consider going long on palm oil after a stable stop - fall, but the upward height may be limited. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn price is weak, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term, with pressure in the later stage. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 corn contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price has shown a phased upward trend, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to consider short - selling at high points, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is that the 05 peanut contract fluctuates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][46]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined slightly. In the short term, the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, the price is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][48][50]. - **Apples**: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. This year's apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. The trading strategy is to expect short - term range - bound fluctuations, use the strategy of long 1 and short 10 for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the cotton price fluctuates strongly. The Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be compressed in 2026, and the sales progress is fast. The trading strategy is that the US cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a possible short - term correction risk. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The black metal sector showed a shock - strong trend last night. The five major steel products continued to reduce production, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is supported by costs, and the steel mills have restocking expectations, but the resumption of iron - making at the end of the month may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to maintain a shock - strong short - term trend, short the coil - coal ratio at high points for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a large - scale game, and there is no main trading logic. The coking coal auction in Shanxi has shown signs of stabilization, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range shock and wait and see [65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuated last Friday night. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the domestic terminal steel demand has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate and wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The commodity market sentiment is strong, and ferroalloys follow the short - term rebound. However, the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to follow the short - term rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [70][71][72]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose sharply last Friday. The CME raised the margin of silver futures contracts, and the market sentiment is high. The trading strategy is to consider taking partial profits on long gold and silver orders before the New Year's Day holiday, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options to protect the remaining long positions [74][75][78]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in a wide - range shock period of capital game. The macro - environment is relatively loose, and the demand prospects are boosted by news. The trading strategy is to go long on dips based on the MA5 daily line, choose the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [78][79][82]. - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new high last Friday night. The macro - environment provides liquidity, and the supply is tight. The trading strategy is to control positions in the short term and go long on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage and wait and see for options [83][84][85]. - **Alumina**: The policy expectation promotes the price increase, which resonates with the expectation of basis convergence. The trading strategy is to be cautious about chasing the rise, wait and see for arbitrage and options [86][87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is strong along with the sector. The global shortage pattern remains, and the domestic downstream demand has resilience. The trading strategy is to expect the price to be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [88][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the aluminum alloy price runs at a high level along with the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [92][93][95]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is strong along with the non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99]. - **Lead**: The lead price is strong due to low inventory and the influence of the macro and capital aspects. The fundamentals are weak in supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long orders, wait and see for arbitrage and options [99][100][102]. - **Nickel**: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector and has a supplementary increase. The Indonesian policy is undetermined, and the demand lacks growth points. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][105][106]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is strong along with the nickel price. The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported, but the upward space is limited. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price increase, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107][108]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is in a short - term rebound, and the demand in the first quarter of 2026 is pessimistic. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be strong in the long term, but pay attention to risk management in the short term. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [110][112]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price runs at a high level. The trading strategy is to control positions and be cautious in operation, wait and see for arbitrage and options [113][114][115]. 3.5 Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate has different views on the high point in January, and the short - term is expected to maintain a shock. The demand is expected to improve from December to January, and the supply has little change. The trading strategy is to take most profits on long EC2602 contracts at high points and hold a small position lightly. The far - month contracts may be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The cease - fire agreement is advancing, and the oil price is running weakly. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a weak shock, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price calendar spread is weak. Wait and see for options [119][120]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is limited, and the asphalt price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, and the BU2602 contract refers to the range of 2900 - 3050. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [121][123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be in a weak shock before the end of January. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread and the high - sulfur cracking spread are weak, and wait and see for options [125][126]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG is in a low - level shock, and the HH is rebounding. The trading strategy is to continue to hold long HH2602 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: The LPG spot price is weakening, and the futures are consolidating. The trading strategy is to go short on the far - month contracts on rallies, use the 03 - 04 reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130][131]. - **PX&PTA**: The PX and PTA prices have fallen from high levels due to polyester filament production cuts and cost weakening. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, use the PX&PTA 3 and 5 contracts for calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][132][134]. - **BZ&EB**: The pure - benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. The trading strategy is to expect a shock - strong trend, go short on pure benzene and long on styrene for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][137][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some devices boost market buying sentiment due to production cuts or shutdowns. The trading strategy is to expect short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - term weak shocks. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [139][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The bottle - chip price fluctuates with the cost side, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][144][145]. - **Propylene**: The propylene supply pressure increases. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP warehouse receipts have returned to the level in mid - December. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the L 2605 contract in a small amount, set a stop - loss at 6320 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract. Try to go long on the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread in a small amount and set a stop - loss at +118 points. Sell the PP2605 - put - 6100 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 137.0 points [148][149][150]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153][154]. - **PVC**: The PVC rebound is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a continuous rebound, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week. The trading strategy is to expect a weak price this week, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options at high points on the far - month contracts [157][158][159]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to continue to decline this week, wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][161]. - **Methanol**: The methanol continues to fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract at low levels without chasing the rise, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [162][163]. - **Urea**: The urea shows signs of fatigue. The trading strategy is to expect a short - term correction, pay attention to the phosphate fertilizer control policy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to go short in the short term without chasing the short, wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][167][168]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the BR 02 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 11450 points; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread (2 lots vs 1 lot) and set a stop - loss at - 1240 points. Wait and see for options [171][172][173].

股指期货周报：年末仍有望冲关 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政 支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增 强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深入实施提 振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 最新数据显示，中国ETF规模达到6.03万亿元，较年初3.73万亿增幅超6成。ETF数量1381只，较年初增加342只。 具体来看，千亿ETF为7只，百亿级别以上ETF数量达到125只。 中国人民银行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》。报告提出，下一步，中国证监会、财政 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market remains divided on the freight rate trend in January 2026, with the EC futures market maintaining a volatile trend. The subsequent focus is on the price adjustment rhythm of shipping companies and the time when the high point appears [5][8]. - The demand for shipping is expected to gradually improve from December 2025 to January 2026. The shipping capacity in December decreased, and there was little change in January and February 2026 compared to the previous period. Maersk has announced an empty - sailing plan for the Spring Festival in 2026 [5]. - The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous. The phased resumption of shipping through the Suez Canal is expected to increase, which may suppress the far - month contracts [5]. - For trading strategies, most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high prices, and the remaining positions should be held lightly. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [5][61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Freight Rate Performance**: On December 26, 2025, the SCFI European line reported $1690/TEU, a week - on - week increase of 10.24%. On December 22, the SCFIS European line reported 1589.2 points, a week - on - week increase of 5.2% [5][11][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In terms of spot freight rates, most ports of Maersk reported $2600/HC in the second week of 2026, mainly continuing the previous week's prices. Other shipping companies such as OOCL, COSCO, CMA, etc., also have different price adjustments. From the fundamental perspective, the shipping demand from December 2025 to January 2026 is expected to improve. The weekly average shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in December 2025 was 273,700 TEU, and the weekly average shipping capacity in January/February 2026 was 299,600/281,200 TEU. Maersk has announced an empty - sailing plan for the Spring Festival in 2026 and will increase the PSS to $400/800 from January 5 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract should be taken profit at high prices, and the remaining positions should be held lightly. Wait and see for arbitrage. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations [5][61]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Volatility**: The market continued to debate the high point of the freight rate in January 2026 and the future trend this week, with the EC market maintaining a volatile trend. At the beginning of the week, the market was affected by the pre - holiday shipping rush and the news of some shipping companies being fully booked, and the expectation of a price increase in January was fully factored in. Then, as some mainstream shipping companies released their January freight rates, which were generally lower than market expectations, the EC market maintained a volatile trend [8]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The latest SCFI European line on December 26 reported $1690/TEU, a week - on - week increase of 10.24%, which reflected the previous price increase expectations of shipping companies. The spot freight rates are still at a high level, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further price increases in the second half of January. On December 22, the SCFIS European line reported 1589.2 points, a week - on - week increase of 5.2%, but it was significantly lower than market expectations, possibly due to the inclusion of some low - priced offline goods in the index [11][14][18]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: On December 26, the deployed shipping capacity on the European line (including the Mediterranean) was 526,200 TEU, a slight decrease from the previous week. The shipping capacity in December decreased, and there was little change in January and February 2026 compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' Spring Festival empty - sailing plans and ship allocation [24][29][31]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in November 2025. Despite the continuous pressure of US tariff policies, China showed strong resilience through diversified market development. The total export volume of goods reached $330.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In terms of export categories, electromechanical products led the growth, while labor - intensive products showed a differentiated performance [36]. - In October 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.481 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the growth rate dropped significantly compared to September. The shipping volume from Asia to North America was 1.872 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The shipping volume from Asia to the world was 9.967 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and the global container shipping volume was 16.256 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [43]. - In December 2025, the European economy showed resilience but with significantly weakened growth momentum. The manufacturing industry continued to be weak, while the service industry still maintained expansion. The economic performances of Germany and France deviated in December [48]. - **Turnaround and Geopolitical Risks**: As of December 26, 2025, the number of container ships diverting on the European and Mediterranean routes decreased slightly. Some shipping companies started trial re - navigation through the Red Sea. The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous, and the situation remains tense [49][55]. 3.3 Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - **Freight Rate Data**: Includes the historical data of the SCFI comprehensive index, SCFI Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Melbourne, Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - Mediterranean, and Shanghai - Southeast Asia routes [65][68]. - **Throughput Data**: The weekly container throughput data of Chinese ports as of the week ending December 21, 2025 [72].

甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2161（-4/-0.18%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1860 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2040 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 2000 元/吨，河南地区报价 2060 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2160 元/吨，鲁北报价 2130 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2090 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2060 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2130 元/吨，宁波报价 2170 元/吨，广州报价 2100 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 25 日，江浙地区 MTO 装置周均产能利用率 69.13%，较上周下跌 0.97 个百分点，江苏部分装置负荷略有调整。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格稳定，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，招标加点上涨，非伊开工提升， 外盘整体开工低位，欧美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat market in 2025 was greatly affected by policy disturbances, with significant differentiation among different oils. In 2026, the overall supply and demand situation of oils and fats will be complex, and the market will continue to be affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies [4][107]. - In the short - term, oils and fats are rebounding, but the rebound height is limited. In the medium - and long - term, if the US biodiesel policy is finally implemented, the production in producing areas is lower than expected, and the macro - environment turns favorable, oils and fats are expected to start an upward trend [6][108]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Oil and Fat Market Review - **January - March 2025**: After the Spring Festival, the trading logic switched from weak expectations to strong reality. International relations and the traditional palm oil production reduction season led to an overall upward trend in oils and fats, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rising significantly, while soybean oil rose slightly [11]. - **April - May 2025**: The differentiation of oils and fats intensified. Palm oil entered the production increase period and increased production and inventory, with a significant decline. Soybean and rapeseed oils basically moved sideways. The market rebounded due to the temporary easing of the Sino - US trade war and the US biodiesel policy bill, but then fell back [12]. - **June - mid - August 2025**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the US biodiesel policy exceeding expectations drove the overall sharp rise of oils and fats. The "anti - involution" policy in China and the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also contributed to the rise [15]. - **Mid - August 2025 - Present**: The driving force for the rise of oils and fats was insufficient. Factors such as the unexpected increase in palm oil production and inventory, the expectation of opening Australian rapeseed in China, and concerns about biodiesel expectations led to a high - level decline in oils and fats [16]. 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: In 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil recovered well, with an estimated annual output of about 20 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 700,000 - 850,000 tons. In 2026, the increase or decrease in production is limited, with an amplitude of about 500,000 - 1,000,000 tons. The high - inventory situation may continue until Q1 2026 [20][23][24]. - **Indonesia**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian palm oil increased significantly. The market has different forecasts for 2026 production. The implementation of the B50 policy is uncertain. There may be inventory accumulation in 2026, but the amplitude is low [40][41][44]. - **Global**: The market has different forecasts for the global palm oil production in 2026, with an estimated increase of 1.5 - 2 million tons in the combined production of Malaysia and Indonesia [45]. Demand in India and China - **India**: In the 24/25 fiscal year, India increased soybean oil imports and decreased palm oil imports. In the 25/26 fiscal year, it is expected to increase palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons due to the expansion of the soybean - palm oil price difference [50][52]. - **China**: In 2025, the import of palm oil in China reached a new low. It is expected that the import of edible oils in 2026 will not increase, and the import of palm oil will be basically the same as in 2025 [52][53]. Biodiesel Policies in Brazil and the US - **Brazil**: In 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Brazil was low, and the biodiesel production increased. The implementation of the B16 policy in 2026 is uncertain. If not implemented, the consumption increment of soybean oil in biodiesel will disappear, but there may still be some increment driven by profit [61][63][64]. - **US**: In 2025, the production of US biodiesel was good, but the profit was poor. The final plans of RVO and SRE are undetermined. It is expected that the demand for biodiesel will increase in 2026, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [74][75][76]. Global Rapeseed and Domestic Market - **Global**: The new global rapeseed crop is expected to have a good harvest in the 25/26 fiscal year, with an estimated increase of 8.7 - 9.3 million tons in production. The new global sunflower seed production may decrease by 370,000 tons [85]. - **Domestic**: The inventory of soybean oil in China is at a relatively high level, and the inventory is expected to decline after the inflection point. The inventory of rapeseed oil is at a moderately high level, and the price is strongly supported before the full liberalization of rapeseed [83][85]. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term**: Oils and fats continue to rebound, but the rebound height is limited. The range of palm oil is 8,200 - 8,800, and that of soybean oil is 7,600 - 8,100 [6][108]. - **Arbitrage**: The price differences between rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm oils will expand in a volatile manner before the rapeseed oil inventory decreases and Australian rapeseed is not liberalized [6][108]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on December 26, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1735 (-1/-0.06%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable, but order intake was weak. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1640-1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1670-1710 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700-1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1600-1620 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1660-1670 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540-1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On December 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 193,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous working day and 17,600 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on that day was 80.19%, a 1.43% increase from 78.76% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Regional Market Conditions: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes were weakly stable, with cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and factory quotes followed the price decline. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were firm, and the market atmosphere was positive [5] - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Domestic gas-based plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained at a high level. The international market saw India's new tender for a total of 1.5 million tons, but the impact on the domestic market was limited. The compound fertilizer demand in the Central Plains and Northeast regions slowed down, and the procurement progress of off-season storage enterprises was basically over 70% [5] - Price Outlook: In the short term, there was downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, the supply-demand fundamentals of urea remained relatively loose, and the acceptance of higher prices by downstream buyers decreased [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single-Side Strategy: Short in the short term but avoid chasing short positions [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [6] - Option Strategy: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]