Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, global stock markets experienced a decline. The Nasdaq fell 2.74%, the Nikkei 225 dropped 3.48%, and the South Korea Composite Index declined by over 3.95%. The decline was triggered by a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, concerns about OpenAI's prospects, and a sharp drop in Bitcoin, with cross - asset contagion affecting the A - share market [4]. - A - share market saw concentrated negative news this week. Tech stocks declined, the new energy lithium - battery sector adjusted, bank stocks couldn't drive the market up, and shareholder reductions of CATL affected the index. The market's risk appetite decreased, and indices broke through important support levels. However, the short - selling momentum was rapidly released, and a weak rebound might occur after the market bottomed out [7]. - In the futures market, the expiration of the current - month contract on Friday increased market volatility, leading to higher trading volume and open interest. After the contract roll - over, the basis of each variety may widen again [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly News Summary** - 16 hard - tech theme funds were approved on November 21, including 7 AI ETFs on STAR Market and ChiNext, 3 STAR Market chip ETFs, 4 STAR Market chip - design theme ETFs, and 2 active equity funds focused on technology [4]. - The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in December rose to 67.3% after Fed official Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, causing a rebound in US stocks [4]. - CICC announced a plan to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities through share - swap on November 19. The A - shares of the three companies were suspended from trading on the 20th, expected for no more than 25 trading days. After the merger, CICC will become the fourth listed securities firm with total assets exceeding one trillion yuan [4]. - CATL's third - largest shareholder transferred 1% of A - shares through inquiry on November 15, worth over 18 billion yuan. On November 20, the shares held by CATL's H - share cornerstone investors became tradable, and the stock price dropped by over 5% [4]. - **Comprehensive Analysis and Strategy Recommendations** - **Logic and Outlook**: This week, negative factors in the A - share market led to a decline in indices. The short - selling momentum was rapidly released, and a weak rebound might occur after the market bottomed out, but the rebound strength would be affected by multiple factors [7]. - **Futures Strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: Control positions due to increased volatility. Short - sellers should take profits, and long - sellers should participate cautiously with a small amount [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Implement a cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy of going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs [7]. - **Options**: Adopt a straddle strategy [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **A - share Index Performance**: The performance of indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 from November 17 to 21, 2025, is presented in graphical form [10][11]. - **A - share Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the A - share market and the trading - volume proportion of major indices are shown in graphical form, with data from April 1, 2025, to October 29, 2025 [13][14]. - **A - share Rise - Fall Situation**: The proportion of rising and falling stocks and the proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit and the daily down - limit from April 8, 2025, to November 18, 2025, are presented in graphical form [15][16]. - **A - share Margin Trading**: The margin balance, the ratio of margin balance to A - share market capitalization, margin net buying, and the ratio of margin buying to A - share trading volume are shown in graphical form, with data from October 9, 2025, to November 20, 2025 [18][19][20]. - **A - share Industry Performance**: The weekly rise - fall rate and industry popularity of various industries are presented in graphical form [21][22][23]. - **A - share Industry Fund Flow**: The weekly net buying of industry funds and margin trading funds for various industries are shown in graphical form [25][26]. - **A - share Market Financing**: The funds raised through IPOs, private placements, and the number of companies involved are presented in graphical form [27][28][29]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis Change**: The basis changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 23 to November 21, 2025, are presented in graphical form [31][32]. - **Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Change**: The trading volume and open interest changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 23 to November 20, 2025, are presented in graphical form [35][36]. - **Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume**: The trading volume comparison of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures and their corresponding spot indices from October 10 to November 21, 2025, is presented in graphical form [37][38]. - **Stock Index Futures Main Positions**: The net short positions of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 20, 2025, are presented in graphical form [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a pattern of increasing supply, weak demand, inventory accumulation, and profit contraction, with a short - term bearish trend. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak operation with a stable - to - decreasing trend next week [4]. - The alumina market continues to operate weakly and steadily, and it is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week, and the subsequent overall downward pressure trend is expected to continue [17]. - The caustic soda industry has a slight increase in start - up, and the unilateral trend of caustic soda is weak. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: Although some caustic soda plants are under maintenance, the overall industry operating load rate has increased to 90.29%, and the caustic soda output has increased by 0.55% week - on - week to 871,000 tons, with the supply pressure slightly increasing [4]. - Demand: The support from the demand side is limited. Although the operating rate of the alumina production capacity of the main downstream has rebounded to 76.76%, the non - aluminum downstream's enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and the viscose staple fiber industry's losses have intensified, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Inventory: There is a significant inventory accumulation. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda plants in Shandong has increased by 13.39% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample enterprises in East China has soared by 25.78%, increasing the manufacturers' shipping pressure [4]. - Profit: The profits have been significantly reduced. Affected by the double decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine, the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has deteriorated. Enterprises without self - owned power plants in Shandong have turned from profit to loss, and the profits of enterprises with self - owned power plants have also dropped by 28.83% [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: The caustic soda trend is weak [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [5]. - Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda from large alumina manufacturers has increased, and the price has decreased. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been successively reduced, and the current delivery volume has significantly rebounded to 13,368 tons [7][9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 6.3% week - on - week. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of sample enterprises of fixed liquid caustic soda with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country has increased by 6.32% week - on - week and 80.65% year - on - year. Inventories in various regions are generally on the rise [10][13]. - Alumina continues to operate weakly and steadily. The national alumina operating level has fluctuated slightly this week, and it is expected to return to normal next week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, and the demand for spot purchases has decreased. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week [17]. - The caustic soda start - up has slightly increased. This week, the average utilization rate of the capacity of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China has increased by 0.5% week - on - week. The load in North China and Northeast China has increased, while the start - up in East China, Central China, and Southwest China has declined due to plant maintenance and production reduction [19]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Including the price trend, basis, position, and warehouse receipt volume of the SH01 contract, as well as the price difference between the 1 - 5 months [23]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [26]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong [29]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi [31]. - Caustic soda variety price difference: The price differences between flake caustic soda and 50% caustic soda, 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the price differences between different varieties in Jiangsu and Guangdong [33]. - Caustic soda regional price difference: The price differences of 32% and 50% caustic soda between Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, as well as the price differences of flake caustic soda between different regions [36]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in factories and the market [41][42]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu [45]. Production and Start - up Data - Caustic soda start - up: The start - up trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda, as well as the output trends [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [50]. - Newly - added caustic soda capacity: A total of 2.1 million tons of newly - added caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025 [52]. - Caustic soda plant maintenance: The maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions [54]. Consumption and Related Market Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [56][57]. - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and start - up trends of alumina [60][61]. - Newly - added alumina capacity: A total of 10.8 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025, and 12 million tons in 2026 [65]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week has increased by 1.75% week - on - week [66]. - Printing and dyeing start - up: The start - up rates of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally stable, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the industry [70]. - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volumes of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam [76][77][78][79]. - Overseas alumina newly - added capacity: It is estimated that 4.5 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity will be put into production overseas in 2025, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have been put into production, and the caustic soda stockpiling has been completed [81].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Stabilizing Foreign Prices, Declining Zhengzhou Sugar Prices [1] Report Author - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Report Structure - Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies [2][5][46] - Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis [2][5][46] - Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking [2][5][46] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Globally, the increase in sugar production in major producing areas is being realized. Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production forecasts for Brazil and India. International sugar prices show signs of bottoming out and are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - In the domestic market, sugar mills are gradually starting operations, increasing supply and sales pressure. However, considering factors such as tightened imports of syrup and premixes and relatively high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are high, which provides some support for the futures price. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. Key Points by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Given the significant decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, which are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and considering the high domestic sugar production cost and the current futures price near 5300, it is advisable to consider short - term long positions at low prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Go long on the January contract and short the May contract [4]. - Option strategy: Sell put options at low levels [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The ISO predicts a 1.63 - million - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption growing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Datagro has revised down the supply surplus forecast to 1 million tons, mainly due to reduced production in Brazil and India [8]. - Brazil's sugar production is expected to remain at a high level. Although there are some changes in production factors, the overall output is still considerable. For example, the 2025/26 production is expected to be 45.02 million tons [9]. - In Thailand, the new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, with an expected increase in exports [24]. - In India, the 2025/26 sugar season has started. The expected net sugar production is 30.95 million tons, and the government has approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar [33]. - **Domestic Market Conditions** - Domestic sugar mills are gradually starting operations. In Yunnan, 4 sugar mills have started operations as of now, and more are expected to start soon. In Guangxi, the number of operating sugar mills is also increasing [37]. - Import profits are relatively high, and in October, the import volume increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of sugar was 3.9054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [45]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Brazil** - By October 31, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [14]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to November last year [20]. - **Thailand** - In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. From January to September 2025, exports were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons [24]. - **India** - As of November 19, 2025, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra had started operations, and they had crushed 11.727 million tons of sugarcane, producing 868,100 tons of sugar [33]. - **China** - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, the total import volume of syrup and premixes was 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating trend. Considering the weak fundamental situation, a slightly bullish stance is recommended for unilateral trading, with the suggestion to lightly position long on T contracts on dips. In terms of arbitrage, it is advised to stay on the sidelines for the short - term after closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week. Attention should be paid to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: This week, the bond futures market showed some divergence. Some market participants pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for this month, leading to relatively stronger performance in the short - to - medium - term. Meanwhile, foreign media reports on real - estate incremental policies suppressed long - term sentiment, with the TL contract declining more in the second half of the week. The actual progress, specific intensity of real - estate policies, and the source of fiscal subsidy funds are unknown, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in yields. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts are weak, and capital prices continue to constrain the downward movement of yields [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a slightly bullish approach and lightly position long on T contracts on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: After closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week, stay on the sidelines in the short - term. For inter - delivery - month arbitrage, also enter a wait - and - see mode as the liquidity of the current - quarter contracts will gradually decline next week. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts, as their valuations are relatively high, mostly above 1.7% [5]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Economic Data** - **EPMI**: In November, China's Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) was 52.7, down 7.0 percentage points from the previous month. Although the decline was significant, it remained in the expansion range. EPMI and the official manufacturing PMI usually have high synchronicity in trends, but they diverged last month, indicating significant differences in the prosperity of different domestic industries. With the slowdown in the expansion of emerging industries in November, the recovery momentum of this month's PMI may still be weak [10]. - **Capital Market** - **Funding Conditions**: This week, affected by tax payments and a still - high net financing scale of government bonds, the market funding situation tightened first and then eased. As of Friday's close, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3209% and 1.4408% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank funding spreads were 6.68bp and 5.44bp respectively. The one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks slightly rose to around 1.65%. Next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will continue to decline, but approaching the end of the month, the funding situation will face some temporary disturbances. With the central bank's consistent supportive attitude, the upward range of market funding prices is expected to be relatively limited [12][16][17]. - **Term Spread**: Since Wednesday this week, the 30Y - 7Y term spread has widened again. On one hand, after the spread approached 40bp, there was a lack of substantial positive drivers, and the momentum for further compression was insufficient. Some funds pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for November and preferred to go long on medium - term treasury bonds. On the other hand, foreign media reported on Thursday that the policy level was considering providing mortgage subsidies to new home buyers nationwide in the future, which was more bearish for the long - term. If the mortgage subsidy policy is finally implemented, it will help balance the cost of home purchases and the rent - to - sale ratio for residents, and the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates will decrease accordingly, which is negative for the bond market. However, the details of relevant policies are unknown, so the bond market is not expected to over - price in advance [18][19][25]. - **Arbitrage Indicators** - **Inter - delivery - month Arbitrage**: In the past two weeks, the indicators for potential inter - delivery - month arbitrage opportunities during the roll - over period of the T contract triggered two short - term long - trading signals, but the indicator became neutral starting on Thursday, presumably related to the significant increase in long positions in the next - quarter T contract on that day. As next week is the last week before the delivery month, it is recommended to enter a wait - and - see mode for inter - delivery - month arbitrage [5][26][29]. - **Cash - and - carry Arbitrage**: Calculated based on the ChinaBond valuation and futures settlement prices, the implied repo rates (IRR) of the current - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.3226%, 1.0132%, 1.4099%, and 1.2732% respectively. The IRR of the next - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.6583%, 1.7361%, 1.7706%, and 1.7469% respectively, with relatively high valuations [34]. - **Roll - over Progress**: This week, the roll - over of the main contracts accelerated significantly. As of Friday's close, the roll - over progress of the TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 69.2%, 63.2%, 63.7%, and 64.8% respectively [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom, while the futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract. In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different trends such as price fluctuations and supply - demand changes. The black metal market is affected by factors like production capacity, cost, and policy, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The non - ferrous metal market is influenced by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, with precious metals waiting for a directional breakthrough [20][22]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures** - Core view: The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom. The futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again [20]. - Trading strategy: Control positions in the unilateral trading, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. - **Treasury Futures** - Core view: The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. - Trading strategy: Take a neutral - to - long approach and buy T - contracts on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal** - Core view: The supply pressure is emerging, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate, and soybean meal has price support [25]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell a small amount of long - dated rapeseed meal contracts, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [26]. - **Sugar** - Core view: International sugar prices are slightly stronger, while domestic sugar prices are weaker. However, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited [28][29]. - Trading strategy: Consider buying on dips in the short - term, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low prices [29]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - Core view: Palm oil may fluctuate weakly, soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to destock [32]. - Trading strategy: Trade in a short - term range, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch** - Core view: The spot price of corn is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The price of corn starch is also affected [34]. - Trading strategy: Short - buy the December CBOT corn on dips, short - sell the January corn on rallies, and wait for the May and July corn to pull back. Narrow the spread between January corn and starch. Hold off on options [34]. - **Hogs** - Core view: The supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. Although there is some support, the overall supply is still high [37]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [37]. - **Peanuts** - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are on the market, but oil mills have not purchased in large quantities [40]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell the January peanuts on rallies, hold off on the May peanuts, conduct reverse arbitrage for the January - May spread, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. - **Eggs** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading in the short - term [45]. - **Apples** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple quality is relatively poor, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [51]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn** - Core view: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price fluctuates mainly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. - Trading strategy: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals - **Steel** - Core view: Steel prices fluctuate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The cost has support, but the upward pressure still exists [57]. - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a fluctuating trend. Long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on dips. Hold off on options [58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - Core view: The downward risk has been released. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes [61]. - Trading strategy: Stop losses on short positions in the short - term. Go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes. Continue to hold the reverse arbitrage of coking coal January/May contracts. Hold off on options [61]. - **Iron Ore** - Core view: The price is expected to run weakly at a high level. The supply is loose, and the demand is low [63]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - bias trading strategy. Hold off on arbitrage and options [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - Core view: The price fluctuates at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The fundamentals are in a pattern of both supply and demand declining, and the cost has support [64]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals** - Core view: The Fed's "hawk - dove" divergence intensifies, and precious metals fluctuate and wait for a direction. The US dollar index exerts pressure, but the downward space is limited [67]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors hold off on trading, while aggressive investors can try to go long on dips near the 20 - day moving average. Hold off on arbitrage and options [68]. - **Copper** - Core view: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may fluctuate in a high - level range [70]. - Trading strategy: Hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying strategy in the long - term. Hold off on arbitrage and options [70]. - **Alumina** - Core view: The substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts to cash. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [74]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak until the warehouse receipts are circulated. Hold off on arbitrage and options [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Core view: The dovish speech of Fed officials eases the pressure on Shanghai aluminum. The fundamental support for the medium - term price is still there [77]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market. Hold off on options [78]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - Core view: The macro - expectation disturbance still exists, and the alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is cautious [81]. - Trading strategy: The price may stabilize due to the repair of the interest - rate cut expectation. Hold off on arbitrage and options [81]. - **Zinc** - Core view: The price fluctuates widely. The smelting profit is compressed, and the production may be lower than expected. The consumption is in the off - season [85]. - Trading strategy: Try to go long on dips. Be vigilant about the influence of overseas funds on the zinc price. Hold off on arbitrage and options [85]. - **Lead** - Core view: The price fluctuates in a range. The supply recovers, but the consumption weakens, and the inventory accumulates [87]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [88]. - **Nickel** - Core view: High inventory suppresses the upward space of the nickel price. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebound is limited [91]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [92]. - **Stainless Steel** - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw material price is under pressure. The cost is declining, and the price rebound is weak [95]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Industrial Silicon** - Core view: The price may pull back in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. The supply - demand balance is tight during the dry season [97]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. Conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage for Si2601 and Si2602. Sell put options after the pull - back [100]. - **Polysilicon** - Core view: Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and short - sell on rallies [101]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage [101]. Others - **Shipping** - Core view: There are still differences in the market, and the price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of shipping schedules [15]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil** - Core view: Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the oil price runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Asphalt** - Core view: The supply and demand remain weak, and the cost runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Fuel Oil** - Core view: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil increases more than expected [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PX & PTA** - Core view: The sentiment has cooled down, and the reality is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Ethylene Glycol** - Core view: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price declines [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Short Fiber** - Core view: Domestic demand declines seasonally [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PR (Bottle Chips)** - Core view: The demand expectation in the off - season weakens [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - Core view: The import volume increases, and the inventory is expected to rise [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Propylene** - Core view: The load decreases, but the supply pressure is still large [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Plastic PP** - Core view: The total import and export volume of PE&PP decreases [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Caustic Soda** - Core view: The price of caustic soda is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PVC** - Core view: The price hovers at the bottom [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Soda Ash** - Core view: The price fluctuates weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Glass** - Core view: The demand is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Methanol** - Core view: The price continues to fluctuate [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Urea** - Core view: The quotation is weakly stable, and the transaction is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Paper Pulp** - Core view: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures market is under pressure [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Log** - Core view: The spot price of logs runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Offset Printing Paper** - Core view: The supply pressure remains high, and the rebound is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber** - Core view: The concentrated cancellation of contract warehouse receipts reaches a new low since 2012 [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Butadiene Rubber** - Core view: The inventory of tire finished products accumulates year - on - year and month - on - month [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol market continues to show a weak trend. The international device operating rate has increased, the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable. Although the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the arrival volume is expected to rise further, and the MTO start - up has slightly declined. The domestic supply is loose, but the inland price is relatively firm due to factors such as stable MTO start - up and large - scale device shutdown. With the upcoming gas - limiting season in Iran and the weakening impact of external factors, methanol will mainly maintain a weak trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2004, down 7 or 0.35% [2]. - Spot market: Different regions have different price quotations. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1920 yuan/ton, and in consumption areas, the price in southern Shandong is 2070 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information In the current cycle (20251115 - 20251121), the international (ex - China) methanol production is 1068585 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate is 73.25%, remaining flat compared to last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with a high and stable operating rate [4]. - Import side: The US dollar price has been falling, imports are in a positive spread situation, the external market operating rate is rising, and there is a large amount of non - Iranian supply [4]. - Demand side: The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and some MTO devices are operating stably or with insufficient loads [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong, and the inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell call options [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that downstream buyers restocked at low prices, leading to a narrow rebound in spot prices. This week's view is that downstream buyers resist high prices, causing the ex - factory price to operate weakly. With the continuous increase in ex - factory prices since the weekend, market sentiment has cooled, and the spot ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas are weakly stable with sluggish transactions. In the short term, domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer industry has not started on a large scale, so the spot market sentiment remains sluggish. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades and the autumn fertilizer season in China ends, overall demand is weak, and the urea market is expected to operate weakly. However, currently, some downstream buyers are restocking at low prices, and the Northeast region has increased purchases, so in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - The ex - factory prices in Shandong are weakly stable, with a decline in the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizers, sufficient raw material inventory, high finished - product inventory, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. In Henan, the market sentiment is weak, the ex - factory prices follow the increase, and the order - receiving volume decreases. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices are firm, but the market atmosphere is average. Overall, the daily output has increased to around 20.4 million tons as maintenance devices return one after another. The fourth batch of quotas has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, remaining at a high level. [4] 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 84.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. [5] Demand - In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a week - on - week increase of 4.29 percentage points. As of November 21, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,260 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%. This week (20251114 - 20251121), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 250,000 tons, an increase of 144,000 tons from last week. As of November 19, 2025, the pre - order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. [5] Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week. The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. [5] Valuation - In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal declined slightly, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 90 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 190 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton. [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term. Although the supply is tightening with low production in major coal - producing areas, the demand growth is limited due to the overall economic situation. The port inventory is stable, and the power plants' inventory is in different states. The coastal power plants are increasing procurement, but the daily coal consumption is low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On November 21, the port market showed a sideways shock pattern. Affected by gale - induced navigation closures, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports increased significantly, and some ports restricted unloading. The prices of different calorific value coal in ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports are provided [2]. Important Information - According to the National Bureau of Statistics on November 14, the power production of industrial enterprises above designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. - **Import**: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. - **Demand**: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. The precipitation in Indonesia affected the supply, and the overseas cargo volume was small, with miners having a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand for heating coal increased significantly with the arrival of winter, but the coal - consumption demand in the industrial sector was lackluster due to the overall economic situation. Power plants were cautious in procurement, mainly locking in coal sources through long - term contracts and adjusting market coal purchases according to market dynamics. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports was 24.48 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory was continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants was at a neutral level. - **Overall Situation**: In late November, the coal production in major producing areas was low. The coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory was continuously decreasing, and the import profit was available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. The port inventory fluctuated within a range. The daily coal consumption of power plants was low, but the coastal power plant inventory was lower than the same period, with continuous rigid - demand procurement. The port FOB price rose continuously. The coal mine operating rate was low due to strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, and the chemical coal demand was okay, with the increase of the mine - mouth price narrowing. It is expected that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term [4].

双焦：下跌风险得到释放 关注交易逻辑的切换 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年11月21日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 单边：当前焦煤的下跌已经一定程度上计价了现有的利空因素，预计近期盘面震荡运行，建议空单止盈。中期看后期焦钢 企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多 远月合约，同时对于上涨空间持谨慎态度。 套利：焦煤1/5反套可继续持有。 期权：观望 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 近期整体商品情绪偏弱，焦煤本身波动较大，跌幅也靠前。焦煤的下跌，主要是市场预期发生了改变，发改委供暖季能源 保供会议后，前期煤矿减产逻辑弱化，保供逻辑增强。同时基本面上也边际转弱，在阶段性补库后，市场恐高情绪出现， 下游采购积极性减弱，观望情绪强。山西煤竞拍流拍 ...

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Iron Ore Prices Under Pressure at High Levels [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, iron ore prices rose from the bottom. Supply-side disturbances resurfaced, significantly impacting market sentiment in the short term, but the room for further increase is limited. The overall supply pattern in the fourth quarter remains loose. The rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and it is predicted that iron ore prices will mainly operate with a high-level downward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: Since November, the supply side has remained stable. Mainstream Australian mines are basically flat year-on-year, while Brazilian mines contribute a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter but still contribute an increase year-on-year. From the demand side, domestic terminal steel demand has shown signs of improvement in the fourth quarter but remains low in the medium term. Overseas steel demand maintains high growth. Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and the iron ore supply-demand pattern in China has become looser since the fourth quarter [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume - Global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded rapidly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% or 28 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% or 2 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% or 11.5 million tons [6][13]. - Non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments have rebounded slightly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments is 18.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The third quarter saw an improvement in non-mainstream iron ore shipments, and although the fourth quarter shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter, they still contribute a certain increase year-on-year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore ports has slightly declined. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation has exceeded 12 million tons. Currently, the total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [16][25]. 3.2.3 Terminal Steel Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic molten iron production has increased by 3.3% or 11.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 3% or 12 million tons year-on-year. However, domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 3.3% or 12.3 million tons year-on-year (excluding exports). Overseas iron element consumption has increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year-on-year, and has been at a high level year-on-year since the second quarter, continuously contributing an increase [26][30]. 3.2.4 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall supply of iron ore in the fourth quarter remains loose, and the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices [3]. 3.2.5 Iron Ore Price and Profit - No specific summary of price and profit trends is provided in the text, but only various price and profit data charts are presented. 3.2.6 Iron Ore Futures Basis and Spread - The basis of the iron ore main contract has room to decline, and various basis and spread data charts are presented [44]. 3.2.7 Global Four Major Mines' Shipments - Various data charts of the global shipments of the four major mines are presented, but no specific summary is provided [46]. 3.2.8 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory Structure - Various data charts of the port inventory structure of imported iron ore are presented, but no specific summary is provided [49].