Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Report Date: December 25, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.75, down 0.04 from the previous trading day [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 9691, up 27 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9208, up 17 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8152, down 17 from yesterday's close [2] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP01: - 1491, down 27 from the previous trading day [2] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP10: 48.0, up 17 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 7.74404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the sales are not as good as the same period last year [7] - In January 2025, the import volume of fresh apples is 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume is 11.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 12.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Spot Price - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan/jin. The price of soft semi - commercial apples from fruit farmers has weakened slightly. The mainstream price of fruit farmers' apples above 80 is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin, and that of merchants' apples is 5.5 - 6.0 yuan/jin. Low - price goods such as high - grade secondary and third - picked apples are selling well [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on contract 1 and short on contract 10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples from 2020 - 2025, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][13]

F03118729、F3013727 期货从业证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 25 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14295 | 85 | 48,165 | 3561 | 155,084 | -14309 | | CF05合约 | 14255 | 75 | 297,416 | 55610 | 835,075 | 20504 | | CF09合约 | 14430 | 85 | 18,800 | 6440 | 43,382 | 3227 | | CY01合约 | 20190 | 65 | 85 | 70 | 819 | -40 | | CY05合约 | 20385 | 135 | 38 | 9 | 112 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term, and the spot price is likely to decline. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, investors can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3072, JD05 at 3558, and JD09 at 4086, with no change from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained stable [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of stability and decline [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.82 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2338 yuan, soybean meal was 3110 yuan, and the compound feed for laying hens was 2.57 yuan, all remaining unchanged. The average price of chicken seedlings increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.21 yuan [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per laying hen was - 3.13 yuan, a decrease of 0.62 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions were mixed, with some stable and some falling [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated inventory of laying hens in production from December 2025 to March 2026 was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Chicken Seedling Output**: In November, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (about 50% of the country) was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: In the week of December 18, the volume of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining the same as the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level in previous years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight increase from the previous week. The expected profit of laying hen farming on December 12 was - 11.65 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, a slight decrease, and in the circulation link was 1.12 days, a slight increase [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - position building at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and investors can consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate upward, while the bond market may have a short - term repair trend but also faces potential risks [23][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply of protein meal is generally loose, and the sugar price may rise slightly in the short - term. The oil and fat sector has a technical rebound, but the upward space is limited [29][33][37]. - In the black metal sector, the steel price maintains a range - bound oscillation, the coking coal and coke market has no obvious driving force and oscillates, and the iron ore price runs weakly [61][64][66]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals such as gold and silver have a high - level retracement, and the copper price has short - term fluctuations but a long - term upward trend [72][79]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the short - term contradiction in the crude oil market is limited, and the asphalt price oscillates widely. The natural gas market has different trends in different regions [115][120][127]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the market oscillated upward. Most stock index futures contracts rose, and the discounts of each variety converged. The main indexes have broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system forms a long - position arrangement. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate upward [21][22][23]. - **Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, most bond futures contracts closed higher. The market capital is generally loose, and the end - of - year bond market repair may continue. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of the TL contract in batches [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply of international soybeans is generally loose, and the domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still in a loss. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price continues to rise, and the domestic sugar price follows. The short - term domestic sugar price may rise slightly, but the upward space is limited [30][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The inventory of domestic soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing. The palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease. The oil and fat sector has a technical rebound, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The U.S. corn rebounds, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short - term but still has pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on dips [40][41]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs still has pressure, and the spot price oscillates. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [43][44]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 03 contract has room for decline. It is recommended to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [45][48]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs is average, and the price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contract on dips [49][52]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to adopt a long - short arbitrage strategy [53][54]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as the possible reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang. It is recommended to go long on the contract on dips [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price maintains a range - bound oscillation. The demand for steel in December is acceptable, and the cost has support, but the increase space is limited [61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market has no obvious driving force and oscillates. The supply and demand of coking coal may improve slightly in the later period. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [64]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is changeable, and the iron ore price runs weakly. The global iron ore shipment increases steadily at the end of the year, and the domestic terminal steel demand is weak [66]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the expectation of anti - involution, the ferroalloys follow the rebound in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by demand [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The price of gold and silver rises and then falls. Affected by the initial jobless claims data and pre - holiday profit - taking, the price presents a high - level retracement. It is recommended to hold long positions with the support of the 5 - day moving average [72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The market may enter a wide - range oscillation period. The fundamentals of platinum are relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [76][77]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation of the copper price intensifies, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between different periods [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price oscillates weakly. The cost expectation decreases, and the fundamental pressure still exists [81][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price falls with the sector due to market risk - aversion before the overseas holiday. The global shortage pattern remains, and it is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term trend after the correction [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy falls with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has support [86][87]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price oscillates widely with multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the influence of capital sentiment [89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price oscillates within a range. It is recommended to take profit on part of the long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [93][94]. - **Nickel**: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector for a supplementary rise. There are industrial hedging and inventory accumulation pressures, but the attention of funds increases. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [96][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price follows the nickel price and runs strongly. The cost is expected to rise, and the inventory decreases [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon has a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term. The supply is still in a state of inventory accumulation [100][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is strong in the long - term, but short - term risk management is needed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [104]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the upgrading of supervision, the lithium price faces a callback risk [107]. - **Tin**: The tin price has an increased risk of callback. The supply of raw materials is expected to improve marginally, and the downstream consumption is weak [109][111]. Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping**: The short - term container shipping market is expected to maintain an oscillation. The spot freight rate has fluctuations, and the market has differences on the high point in January. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the remaining light positions [113][114]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term contradiction in the crude oil market is limited, and the holiday price fluctuation decreases [115]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates widely. The raw material problem still has hidden concerns, and the short - term supply and demand are weak [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are both in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to be bearish on the low - sulfur fuel oil [122][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price oscillates at a low level, and the HH price rebounds significantly. It is recommended to hold the long positions of the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The LPG price consolidates at a low level. The international market is stronger than the domestic market, and there is a pressure on the warehouse receipt [130][131]. - **PX&PTA**: The reduction of polyester yarn production is gradually implemented, and the PX and TA prices maintain a high level. It is recommended to be bullish on the oscillation and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 3 and 5 contracts [131][132][133]. - **BZ&EB**: The port inventory of pure benzene continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to oscillate within a range and carry out the arbitrage of shorting pure benzene and going long on styrene [133][135][136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The shutdown of Taiwanese devices due to efficiency boosts the market buying sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has a de - stocking pressure [137][138]. - **Short - fiber**: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The short - fiber price oscillates strongly [140][141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The bottle chips follow the cost end to fluctuate, and the supply - demand side is relatively loose. The price oscillates strongly [143][144]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand of propylene are weak, the downstream profit improvement is not good, and the start - up has no obvious increase. It is recommended to oscillate widely and sell options on both sides [145][146]. - **Plastic PP**: The monthly maintenance volume of polyolefins decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the L contract and go long on a small amount for the PP contract [147][148]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillates strongly. The supply decreases slightly, the demand is weak, and the profit is repaired. It is recommended to oscillate and wait and see for arbitrage [150][151]. - **PVC**: The PVC price continues to rebound. The supply pressure is relieved, the demand is still weak, and the cost has support [154]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price oscillates. The new production capacity at the end of the year forms a pressure, and the demand is flat [156][158]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price oscillates. The market has a cold - repair voice, but the fundamentals are still weak [159][160]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillates within a range. The international device start - up rate declines, the port inventory increases, and the domestic supply is loose [161]. - **Urea**: The urea price oscillates at a high level. The domestic supply is still high, the international demand has an impact, and the downstream demand is weak [163][164]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. The supply is greater than the demand, and the terminal demand is weak [166][169]. - **Log**: The log spot market stabilizes. The short - term valuation is at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on a small amount [170][171]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory of offset printing paper reaches a new high. The short - term price oscillates narrowly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [173][174]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The global economic uncertainty index rises. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR contracts and hold the arbitrage position [175][177]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The export profit and loss of butadiene rubber continue to improve. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR contract [181][182].

Group 1: Market Data - Futures contract prices: EC2512 closed at 1,608.0 with a 0.13% increase; EC2602 at 1,799.7 with a 0.22% increase; EC2604 at 1,164.5 with a -0.04% decrease; EC2606 at 1,320.0 with a 0.08% increase; EC2608 at 1,496.7 with a 1.06% increase; EC2610 at 1,059.0 with a 0.75% increase [4] - Volume and open interest changes: For example, EC2602 volume increased by 21.33% to 28,762.0 hands, and open interest decreased by 0.19% to 34,250.0 hands [4] - Container freight rates: SCFIS European line was 1589.20 points, up 5.21% week - on - week and down 52.76% year - on - year; SCFIS US West line was 962.10 points, up 4.08% week - on - week and down 47.17% year - on - year [4] - Fuel costs: WTI crude oil near - month was $58.17 per barrel, down 0.19% week - on - week and down 16.52% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $61.84 per barrel, down 0.13% week - on - week and down 15.6% year - on - year [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy - Market analysis: MSK's New Year second - week quotes were below expectations, but there is still an expected price increase in the second half of the month. The market is still debating the January freight rate high and future trends, and the EC market remains volatile. The latest SCFIS European line index was significantly below market expectations, possibly due to some offline low - price cargo being included in the index [6] - Logic analysis: In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different price quotes. From a fundamental perspective, demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December capacity. The Maersk Group has announced a 2026 Spring Festival blank - sailing plan. The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous, and the resumption of navigation may suppress far - month contracts [7] - Trading strategies: For the EC2602 contract, most long positions should be closed at high prices, and the remaining light positions can be held at the trader's discretion. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23, 2025, three container ships of CMA CGM and Maersk passed through the Suez Canal, and it was the first time in two years that ultra - large container ships passed through the canal [8][10] - Pacific Basin, a Hong Kong - listed dry bulk shipping company, placed an order at a Chinese shipyard again after 11 years, signing contracts to purchase four new - built small handy - size dry bulk carriers on December 23, 2025, with a total transaction value of approximately $119 million [10]

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力减少 现货小幅震荡 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | | 2025/12/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.76 | 11.78 | -0.02 | 山西 | （-100） | 11.47 | 11.48 | -0.01 | | 湖北（0） | 11.53 | 11.53 | 0.00 | 辽宁 | （-300） | 11.31 | 11.32 | -0.01 | | 安徽（200） | 11.97 | 12.01 | -0.04 | | 吉林（-300） | 11.29 | 11.30 | -0.01 | | 湖南 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] 2. IM Contract Analysis 2.1 IM Daily Quotes - The main contract of IM rose 1.02% to close at 7419 points. The closing prices of IM2601, IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7547.00, 7473.60, 7419.00, and 7183.00 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.02%, 1.16%, and 1.22% [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 171,176 lots, a decrease of 14,596 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 359,925 lots, a decrease of 3,977 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 160.38 points, an increase of 18.4 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -9.17% [5]. 2.2 IM Daily Basis - The basis and annualized roll - over costs of different contracts were presented, with details on the relationship between the spot and futures prices of different maturities [9][12]. 2.3 IM Daily Open Interest - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in IM2601, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts were analyzed, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats and their changes from the previous day [16][18][20] 3. IF Contract Analysis 3.1 IF Daily Quotes - The main contract of IF rose 0.27% to close at 4610.6 points. The closing prices of IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4632.00, 4618.60, 4610.60, and 4561.80 respectively, with increases of 0.27%, 0.27%, 0.32%, and 0.36% [21]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 87,117 lots, a decrease of 11,854 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 271,697 lots, a decrease of 563 lots from the previous day [22]. - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 31.94 points, an increase of 7.12 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -2.94% [22]. 3.2 IF Daily Basis - Similar to IM, the basis and annualized roll - over costs of different IF contracts were provided, showing the price differences between spot and futures [26][31]. 3.3 IF Daily Open Interest - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts were studied, including the changes of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats from the previous day [35][37][38] 4. IC Contract Analysis 4.1 IC Daily Quotes - The main contract of IC rose 0.97% to close at 7320.6 points. The closing prices of IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 were 7398.00, 7356.60, 7320.60, and 7135.80 respectively, with increases of 0.87%, 0.97%, 0.97%, and 1.04% [40]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 107,990 lots, a decrease of 12,456 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 267,371 lots, a decrease of 3,891 lots from the previous day [41]. - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 90.11 points, an increase of 21.53 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -5.22% [41]. 4.2 IC Daily Basis - The basis and annualized roll - over costs of different IC contracts were presented, reflecting the price relationships between spot and futures [45][50]. 4.3 IC Daily Open Interest - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts were analyzed, including the changes of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats from the previous day [52][53][55] 5. IH Contract Analysis 5.1 IH Daily Quotes - The main contract of IH rose 0.3% to close at 3034 points. The closing prices of IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 were 3032.80, 3032.80, 3034.00, and 3028.00 respectively, with increases of 0.26%, 0.30%, 0.27%, and 0.34% [57]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 32,410 lots, a decrease of 7,004 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 83,254 lots, an increase of 197 lots from the previous day [57]. - The main contract of IH was at a premium of 1.16 points, a decrease of 0.66 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was 0.16% [58]. 5.2 IH Daily Basis - The basis and annualized roll - over costs of different IH contracts were provided, showing the price differences between spot and futures [62][66]. 5.3 IH Daily Open Interest - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of major seats in IH2601, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts were studied, including the changes of the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats from the previous day [70][72][74]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean market was closed for the holiday, but it had a significant increase the previous day. The current price of US soybeans still lacks an advantage. The domestic soybean meal market was under pressure earlier but rose rapidly due to market rumors. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widened. The inter - month spread of soybean meal increased, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, and there is obvious downward pressure on prices. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and exports are expected to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Oil mills' operating rates remain high, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. Market transactions have decreased recently, and there is still uncertainty about long - term supply. As of December 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, the operating rate was 58.61%, soybean inventory was 7.7236 million tons (a 3.35% increase from the previous week and a 24.85% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.1371 million tons (a 3.66% increase from the previous week and a 95.11% increase year - on - year). Rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, oil mill operations have basically stopped, rapeseed supply is low, and there is still supply pressure [6]. Group 4: Logic Analysis - There is still downward pressure on US soybeans. Short - term increases are mainly a reaction to previous declines. If demand continues to lack support, the market may face more pressure. Brazil's short - term weather is good, and if it continues, the pressure of a bumper harvest may be more obvious. The international soybean market is still in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices are expected to be under pressure. South American quotes are relatively firm, and domestic soybean meal supply may decrease in the future, providing some support for the spot market. In the long - term, price pressure still exists. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and its downward space is limited due to the improvement of soybean meal spot. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The inter - month spread of soybean meal shows a rebound but may decline in the future, while that of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly and is still under pressure [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Make a small - scale long - position layout. - Arbitrage: Focus on narrowing the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of short - term capacity reduction will be relatively gentle, the spot price is expected to decline, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered to be established at low prices for the far - month May contract as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3072, up 45 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3558, up 17; JD09 closed at 4086, up 40 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 486, up 28; the 05 - 09 spread was - 528, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 1014, down 5 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin. Most of the national mainstream prices declined [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2340 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.57 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was - 2.61 yuan, down 1.99 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in previous years [5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term capacity reduction will be gentle, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will be volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered for the far - month May contract [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly volatile and weak in the short term, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].