Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The international soybean supply pressure has improved, which supports prices to some extent. However, the market may be more affected by South American weather. If the weather is good, the price pressure could be relatively high, and the new - crop market supply - demand pattern is generally loose [5]. - The domestic soybean meal price faces downward pressure due to cost - side factors and sufficient near - term supply, but there is still some support [5]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally in a supply - loose situation, with price pressure expected to remain, but it may fluctuate [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean market lacks more bullish factors, and the subsequent price is mainly affected by exports. South American old - crop supply pressure is neutral. Brazilian exports and crushing were good earlier, and the new - crop planting is progressing well. Argentine old - crop supply pressure has improved, and new - crop planting is advancing. The domestic soybean meal price is affected by cost and supply, and the rapeseed meal market is supply - loose [5][6]. - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean price fluctuated greatly this week, rising at first and then falling. The demand is improving, with export inspection volume and crushing volume increasing. However, the upside space is limited as the current price has fully reflected the bullish factors [13]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The Brazilian soybean price continued to fall. The old - crop supply pressure is neutral, with good demand in exports. The new - crop planting progress is accelerating, and the weather is expected to improve. The market is still relatively supply - loose [16]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The Argentine soybean price remained stable. The old - crop supply pressure has improved, and the new - crop planting is progressing smoothly, but the planting area may decrease [16]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price fell, affected by the US soybean price and the actual supply situation. The oil - mill operating rate increased, demand and trading volume improved, and the near - term supply is sufficient [19]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal price fell due to sufficient supply. The demand is average, and the market is supply - loose, with prices expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: It includes data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing volume; and foreign basis [26][29]. - **Macro**: It involves exchange rates (USD/CNH, USD/BRL, UDS/ARS) and international shipping freight rates. The shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China all increased [40][48]. - **Supply**: It includes data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [51]. - **Demand**: It includes data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 [54]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory [57].

尿素日报 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1638（-19/-1.15%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下探，成交一般，河南出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1620-1630 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1560-1570 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 24 日，尿素行业日产 20.33 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较 去年同期增加 1.87 万吨；今日开工率 84.08%，较去年同 81.64%提升 2.44%。隆众统计。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳， 成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of the platform company and sell on rallies [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Core Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon was in a tight balance, but the silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the polysilicon futures may rise, but the upside is limited due to pessimistic demand expectations. For now, it's better to wait and see [4]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight balance. The price is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton, with limited downside and upside space in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - From a supply - demand perspective, in November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, translating to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production was 115,000 tons, resulting in a tight balance. There were about 270,000 tons of upstream inventory, approximately 160,000 tons of downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons of warehouse receipt and trader inventory. The silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure due to increased hoarding risks and cash - flow needs of some manufacturers. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the futures may rise, but the upside is limited. Currently, it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategies: For the short term, wait for more certain opportunities; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [6]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: This week, the DMC weekly production was 49,200 tons, a 1.03% increase; the polysilicon weekly production was 27,500 tons, a 3.24% decrease; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%, unchanged; the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 60.6%, unchanged. The industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [7]. - Trading logic: After the silicone industry meeting, there was no expected production cut, and the industrial silicon market remained in a tight balance. Factories were reluctant to sell below 9,400 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of the price was high. The basis was at a relatively high level, limiting the downside of the futures price. Without a further reduction in supply, the upside momentum was also insufficient. It is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton [7]. - Trading strategies: Trade in the range with high - selling and low - buying; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices generally increased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the DMC production increased by 1.03% to 49,200 tons, the polysilicon production decreased by 3.24% to 27,500 tons, the primary aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 59.8%, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 60.6% [14]. - **Production**: This week, the industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The total number of open furnaces was 261, a decrease of 3. An enterprise in Yili stopped production, and the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased. There are no expected changes in Xinjiang, but some furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan may stop, and the production is expected to decrease next week [25]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [26]. - **Related Product Prices**: This week, the industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly; the DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon also increased; the industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [31][36][48]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates increased slightly; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate strengthened [42][45]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: This week, silicon wafers and batteries saw significant price drops. The polysilicon prices were relatively stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and batteries decreased compared to the end of September and last weekend [53][54]. - **Component Data**: Recently, component enterprises started to implement the spirit of the association meeting and gradually raised component quotes. In November, some component enterprises reduced production, but terminal demand provided some support. The component production schedule was expected to be 46GW. European component inventory increased to 35.4GW, and domestic manufacturers' inventory was 30.3GW, at a moderately low level [62]. - **Battery Data**: Battery export demand was good, but specialized battery manufacturers' inventory reached 10.21GW, showing obvious inventory accumulation and pressuring battery prices. In November, the component production schedule decreased, and the battery production schedule was adjusted to 54GW [63]. - **Silicon Wafer Data**: This week, the silicon wafer enterprises' operating rate decreased, and the weekly production dropped to 12.78GW. Silicon wafers were produced on - demand, with an inventory of 18.72GW. The November production schedule was 59GW, a 1GW decrease from October [68]. - **Polysilicon Data**: This week, polysilicon production decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 271,000 tons. In November, Tongwei planned to gradually stop production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total annual production suspension scale of 370,000 tons. Its production is expected to decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October and another 10,000 tons in December. Some new capacities of Asian Silicon, Daquan Energy, and Xinte Energy are ramping up, while GCL Technology has a certain production cut plan. Overall, the November production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to be weak in the short term. As of late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, the supply is tightening, the power plant inventory is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the port inventory fluctuates within a range, the power plant daily consumption hovers at a low level, and the coal consumption is average, but the coastal power plant inventory is lower than the same period and continues to make rigid - demand purchases, leading to a continuous increase in the port FOB price. The increase in pit - mouth price has narrowed [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On November 24, the port market showed a continuous game between buyers and sellers, and the overall quotation remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other regions, the prices of different - calorie non - power enterprise coal were also within certain ranges. The mainstream quotation of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Jiangnei Port was 890 - 900 yuan/ton, and the 5000 - kcal coal was quoted at 790 - 800 yuan/ton [2]. Important News - From January to October this year, the national railways cumulatively sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and that in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. Entering late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, the coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, and the daily average output was around 3.8 million tons, with supply tightening [4]. - **Import**: China's demand has weakened, but the international coal price has still risen. The precipitation in Indonesia still affects the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes is small, and the miners have a strong willingness to hold up prices [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the demand performance was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. With the deepening of winter, the demand for heating coal has increased significantly, but the growth momentum of coal - consumption demand in the industrial industry is insufficient due to the overall economic situation. Power plants are mainly cautious in procurement, mainly locking in part of the coal source through long - term contracts and flexibly adjusting the market coal according to market dynamics [4]. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory of Bohai - Rim ports was 24.6 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of inland power plants is neutral [4].

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel spot price is 3210 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3230 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3210 yuan (+10) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook Core Viewpoint - Affected by the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, commodities generally rose today, but coking coal and coke still led the decline. Steel spot trading was generally fair, with general rigid demand and mainly speculative and futures-cash purchases. Last week's Steel Union data showed that the overall production of the five major steel products increased, with the resumption of threaded steel production accelerating as electric furnace profits recovered. The destocking speed of total steel inventories accelerated, and the apparent demand for steel significantly improved, with threaded steel performing better than hot-rolled coils. Recently, some blast furnaces resumed production, but there is still room for a reduction in hot metal output in the future. Affected by coal supply guarantees and the goal of 100 million tons of Mongolian coal shipments, coal mines continued to accumulate inventory, and coking coal and coke prices have been falling rapidly recently, while steel and iron ore prices have risen, with the futures market anticipating the third round of coke price cuts in advance. However, there is a structural shortage of PB iron ore powder, which provides support for steel costs. Recently, infrastructure demand has increased, and the apparent demand for steel has continued to improve. Therefore, in the short term, steel prices will still follow the fundamentals and maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but overall, they will continue to fluctuate within a range, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Hot-rolled coils still perform better than threaded steel, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and threaded steel is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot-rolled coils and threaded steel [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - In October, the average national construction machinery start-up rate was 45.56%, a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, and the month-on-month increase in workload was 5.25%. The new order index for the construction industry was 45.9%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The top ten provinces in terms of comprehensive start-up rate were Zhejiang, Anhui, Beijing, Hainan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Hebei. In addition, 19 provinces had a start-up rate of over 50%, and 22 provinces had a month-on-month increase in workload [9] - On November 24, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - October. From January to October, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 2619 hours, a decrease of 260 hours compared to the same period last year; the investment in power source projects of major national power generation enterprises reached 721.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; and the investment in power grid projects reached 482.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [10]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the container shipping industry, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [3] - It provides data on futures contracts, container freight rates, fuel costs, and offers market analysis, trading strategies, and industry news [5][7][9] Group 2: Futures Contract Data - Futures contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., are presented with details on closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest [5] - For example, EC2512 closed at 1,779.7, up 5.8 points (0.33%) on November 24, 2025, with a trading volume of 1,541.0 hands (down 22.83%) and open interest of 6,862.0 hands (down 6.30%) [5] Group 3: Container Freight Rate Data - Various container freight rates are reported, including SCFIS and SCFI indices for different routes such as Europe, the US West Coast, etc. [5] - SCFIS European Line was at 1639.37 points, up 20.75% week - on - week but down 42.71% year - on - year; SCFI: Shanghai - Europe was at 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% week - on - week and 45.58% year - on - year [5] Group 4: Fuel Cost Data - WTI crude oil near - month price was 57.73 dollars per barrel, down 1.32% week - on - week and 18.39% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month price was 61.89 dollars per barrel, down 1.01% week - on - week and 17.2% year - on - year [5] Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market is in a state of continuous game over the December freight rate level, and the EC market maintains a volatile trend [7] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trades due to the divergence in the expected implementation of price increases [9] Group 6: Industry News - A container ship "ONE HENRY HUDSON" had an electrical fire on November 21, 2025, causing the suspension of operations at multiple container terminals in the Port of Los Angeles [9][10] - Italy will hold a national strike on November 28, 2025, which is expected to disrupt the logistics industry [10] - Canada will resume trade negotiations with the US at an "appropriate time" [10] - India has fully resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens [11] - A senior leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli air strike, and Hamas held talks on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the amount of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. It is expected that the speed of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stocking, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price and Spread**: JD01 closed at 3210, up 26 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3510, up 17; JD09 closed at 3878, up 3. The 01 - 05 spread was - 300, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread was - 368, up 14; the 09 - 01 spread was 668, down 23 [2]. - **Ratio with Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.45, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.07, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.25, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of rising and remaining stable [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in different regions also had different changes [2][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.8 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were mixed, with some rising and some stable [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated inventory in November, December, January, and February 2025 will be 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In October, the monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [5]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: From November 18 - 24, the national culled chicken volume in the main production areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of November 21, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week [6]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of November 13, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. As of November 21, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee continues to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Some high - cost smelters have turned to small losses. Although some smelters are sprinting for the annual task at the end of the year and new production capacity is put into operation, the smelting profit is narrowing and some smelters are actively reducing production due to lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November may be lower than expected. The domestic zinc consumption has entered the off - season. Although there is an expected reduction in supply, there are large differences in the expected export volume. In the short term, Shanghai zinc still has support. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ratio on refined zinc exports. If the export volume is lower than expected, the domestic social inventory may accumulate again [4]. - Trading strategies include going long at low prices on a light - position basis for single - side trading and holding the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: - **Mine end**: Domestic zinc concentrate is still in short supply this week. The processing fees of domestic zinc concentrates in many places continue to decline, with a reduction range of 150 - 300 yuan/metal ton. The loss of imported zinc concentrates has been repaired, and the trading volume in the imported zinc concentrate market has increased recently, but the processing fee continues to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price is reduced by 250 yuan/metal ton to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [4]. - **Smelting end**: The continuous decline of zinc concentrate TC has further compressed the profits of domestic smelters. Some smelters in Northwest and Central China have actively reduced their operating rates due to losses or lack of ore. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc supply in November may be lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the domestic export volume and frequency [4]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic zinc consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 15.27 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons compared with November 13 and a decrease of 0.39 tons compared with November 17 [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Go long at low prices on a light - position basis. Be vigilant about the impact of overseas funds on zinc prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the arbitrage of buying SHFE and selling LME [4]. 3.2 Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some data item names such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, etc. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and domestic production**: From January to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate production is 829.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.37 tons or 7.71%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production is 109.76 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.75 tons or 13.14%. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate production is 33.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 12.33%. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production in November will decrease by 2.09% month - on - month to 32.39 tons [28]. - **Raw material inventory**: As of October, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is 22.1 days, an increase of 5.44 days compared with the same period last year, but it has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in domestic main ports decreases by 3.15 tons to 27.42 tons [28]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the high demand for zinc ore from smelters, but the loss of imported zinc ore in October continued to expand compared with September. Domestic smelters actively snapped up domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones, and the overall spot trading of imported zinc ore was light. It is expected that the imported zinc ore volume in October may have no room for further increase [30]. - From January to September, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate volume is 400.8 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September 2025, the imported zinc concentrate volume is 50.54 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (3.8 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94% [38]. 3.3.3 Zinc Ore Processing Fee - In November, the monthly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is 3000 yuan/ton. On November 21, the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate is reduced by 250 yuan to 2350 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index drops by 10.45 US dollars/dry ton to 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [46]. - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 5300 yuan/ton, and the production loss of domestic smelters is about 1420 yuan/ton (excluding by - product benefits). With by - product benefits, smelters have a profit of about 500 yuan/ton [47]. 3.3.4 Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Production - **Global**: From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc production is 914.82 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 tons or 0.14%; the global refined zinc consumption is 896.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc accumulatively has a surplus of 17.99 tons. In August, the global refined zinc production is 122.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%, and the demand is 117.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, with a surplus of 4.79 tons [51]. - **Domestic**: In October, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises is 90.16%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale enterprises is 91.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%; that of medium - scale enterprises is 93.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; and that of small - scale enterprises is 80.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The SMM China refined zinc production in October increases by 2.85% month - on - month to 61.72 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in November will be 61.14 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 19.93% [54][55]. 3.3.5 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September, the cumulative refined zinc import is 25.82 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September 2025, the refined zinc import is 2.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. The refined zinc export in September is 0.25 tons, with a net import of 2.02 tons. The main import countries in September are Kazakhstan, Iran, and Australia. The export mainly goes to Southeast Asian countries, and the export volume increases significantly with the opening of the export spot window [58]. - It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in October will still increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the imported zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may slightly increase month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation [59].

Report Information - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Methanol Daily Report - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market continues to be weak. International device operating rates are rising, and the domestic supply is abundant. Although downstream demand is stable, the market remains sluggish. The impact of external factors on methanol futures is weakening, and the market is mainly influenced by internal supply - demand relationships [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market rebounded significantly with reduced positions, closing at 2077 (+62/+3.08%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Prices vary by region. In production areas, prices range from 1910 - 2040 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, from 2040 - 2150 yuan/ton; and in ports, from 2020 - 2040 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - From November 15 - 21, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,068,585 tons, with a device capacity utilization rate of 73.25%, unchanged from the previous week [3]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates [4]. - **Import**: US dollar prices are falling, imports are profitable, and the external market operating rate is rising. Iran has shipped 920,000 tons in November and is actively selling at discounted prices [4]. - **Demand**: MTO device operating rates are recovering, but there are differences in the operating loads of different enterprises' MTO devices [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory accumulation has ended, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4]. - **Overall Situation**: The market is weak. Although there are some positive factors in demand, the abundant supply and external market conditions lead to a weak market. The impact of external factors on methanol futures is weakening [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Close short positions [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell call options [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn price has declined, and the yield per unit will continue to be adjusted downward, but the production remains high, with the US corn expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,135 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1.109 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week, a monthly decline of 1.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Short - sell the 01 corn futures contract on rebounds, and wait for the 05 corn futures contract. Try to narrow the price difference between the 01 corn and starch futures contracts when it is high. [7][8] - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 futures contracts have increased, with price increases of 25, 12, 9, 23, 21, and 8 respectively, and price increase rates of 1.13%, 0.53%, 0.39%, 0.91%, 0.81%, and 0.30% respectively. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and CS2601 have decreased, with decreases of 2.88%, 2.61%, and 1.91% respectively, while the trading volumes of C2509, CS2605, and CS2509 have increased, with increases of 21.45%, 166.65%, and 137.37% respectively. The open interests of all contracts have increased, with increases ranging from 2.03% to 5.54%. [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in various regions have different degrees of increase, with the largest increase of 40 yuan in Nantong Port. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 288 to 117 yuan. The spot prices of starch in various regions are stable, and the basis of starch ranges from 81 to 301 yuan. [1] - **Price Differences**: Among the corn inter - delivery price differences, C01 - C05 is - 44 with a 13 - yuan increase, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a 3 - yuan increase, and C09 - C01 is 63 with a 16 - yuan decrease. Among the starch inter - delivery price differences, CS01 - CS05 is - 64 with a 2 - yuan increase, CS05 - CS09 is - 32 with a 13 - yuan increase, and CS09 - CS01 is 96 with a 15 - yuan decrease. Among the cross - variety price differences, CS09 - C09 is 348 with a 1 - yuan decrease, CS01 - C01 is 315 with a 2 - yuan decrease, and CS05 - C05 is 335 with a 9 - yuan increase. [1] Part 2: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. The closing prices of C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE have decreased by 1.0. [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract price difference. [12][14][19]