最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 736.0 0.0 25.0 51.0 -119.0 25省终端可用天数 24.6 1.0 4.6 3.6 7.0 秦皇岛5000 646.0 0.0 26.0 52.0 -114.0 25省终端供煤 533.5 0.4 -75.0 -106.5 -89.3 广州港5500 780.0 0.0 15.0 25.0 -130.0 北方港库存 2197.0 3.0 -166.0 167.0 -99.9 鄂尔多斯5500 520.0 10.0 35.0 55.0 -110.0 北方锚地船舶 100.0 4.0 -19.0 5.0 22.0 大同5500 570.0 10.0 35.0 50.0 -140.0 北方港调入量 148.6 6.6 28.2 -4.5 -20.5 榆林6000 652.0 0.0 10.0 50.0 -173.0 北方港吞吐量 164.8 -11.4 40.5 -7.3 18.9 榆林6200 680.0 0.0 10.0 50.0 -173.0 CBCFI海运指数 948.3 24.4 249.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on various indicators of synthetic rubber, including prices, positions, trading volumes, basis, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Indicators**: On October 17, the closing price of the main contract was 10,925, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly increase of 5; the position volume was 17,001, a daily decrease of 1,410 and a weekly decrease of 15,012; the trading volume was 57,027, a daily decrease of 19,877 and a weekly decrease of 56,219; the warrant quantity was 8,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200; the long - short ratio was 9.71, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 9 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 125, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 105; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 275, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 5; the 10 - 11 spread was 290, a daily increase of 345 and a weekly increase of 380; the 11 - 12 spread was 100, a daily increase of 15 [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100; the Chuanhua market price was 10,900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 53, a daily increase of 26 and a weekly decrease of 177; the on - disk processing profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 185 and a weekly decrease of 72; the import profit was - 79,618, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 3; the export profit was 424, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 8,625, a daily decrease of 25; the Jiangsu market price was 8,550, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, with no daily or weekly change; CFR China was 1,010, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 124, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 170; the import profit was 269, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 391; the export profit was - 892, a daily decrease of 72 and a weekly decrease of 111 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene rubber production profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 182 and a weekly decrease of 72; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 750, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly decrease of 138; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 760, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 75 [3]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 2,306, a daily increase of 1,205 and a weekly increase of 14,767; NR - BR was - 4,776, a daily increase of 1,320 and a weekly increase of 15,197; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,500, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 200; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference was 300, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 920, a daily increase of 20 and no weekly change [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn, but may rebound in the long - term if farmers resist selling at low prices. Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term with raw material price drops and inventory accumulation, but may be supported by increased downstream consumption in the long - term. Sugar prices face pressure both internationally and domestically. Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur. Egg prices are expected to be weak in the short - term but may be supported by accelerated chicken culling. Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues. Pig prices may have short - term rebounds but face medium - term supply pressure [1][2][3][4][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, corn prices in different regions remained stable, with the basis dropping by 6 and import profit increasing by 1. Starch basis increased by 2 [1]. - **Analysis**: New - season corn is on the market, and short - term prices are weak due to supply. Long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders. Starch price adjustment is limited by high production costs, and short - term prices are expected to decline with inventory accumulation, while long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, sugar spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, the basis dropped by 4, and the number of warrants decreased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazilian production has uncertainties. Domestic sugar prices follow the international market, with import sugar arrivals and lower processing sugar quotes putting pressure on the market [3]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 15 [14]. - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, egg prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.11 in some regions, and the basis increased by 61 [8]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices dropped during the holiday, and are expected to be weak in the short - term due to high supply and seasonal demand decline. Accelerated chicken culling may support prices [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500, and the 1 - month basis decreased by 115 [10][11]. - **Analysis**: New - season apples in the western region are about to be harvested, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. The national production is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues, and the average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, pig prices in major production areas increased slightly, with the largest increase of 0.10 in some regions, and the basis increased by 335 [11]. - **Analysis**: Pig prices may have short - term rebounds due to low prices, but face medium - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Report Title - The report is titled "Yongan Basis Morning Report" [1] Core Data Summary Macro - As of October 16, 2025, for IF, the spot price converted to futures was 4618 with a change of 12, the basis was 28, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.70; for IH, the spot price converted to futures was 3019 with a change of 18, the basis was 0, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.04; for IC, the spot price converted to futures was 7232 with a change of -62, the basis was 170, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.98 [2] Black - On October 16, 2025, in Shanghai and Beijing, the spot price converted to futures for rebar was 3190 with no change, the basis was 141, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviations were 0.72 and 0.08 respectively; for hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the spot price converted to futures was 3280 with no change, the basis was 61, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.84; for ore in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 824 with a change of 2, the basis was 51, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.42; for coke in Tianjin Port, the spot price converted to futures was 1602 with no change, the basis was -70, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.50; for coking coal with port warehouse receipts, the spot price converted to futures was 1516 with a change of -3, the basis was 330, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.51; for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price converted to futures was 736 with a change of 8, the basis was -65, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.29; for glass at low - price in Shahe, the spot price converted to futures was 1164 with a change of 14, the basis was 17, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.19; for glass at low - price in Hubei, the spot price converted to futures was 1110 with no change, the basis was -37, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.01; for ferrosilicon in Yinchuan, the spot price converted to futures was 5580 with no change, the basis was -46, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.44; for silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, the spot price converted to futures was 6050 with a change of -30, the basis was 226, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.83 [3] Energy and Chemicals - On October 16, 2025, for methanol at the port, the spot price converted to futures was 2324 with no change, the basis was 5, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.27; in Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 2380 with a change of -10, the basis was 61, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.27; in Lunan, the spot price converted to futures was 2515 with a change of -10, the basis was 196, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.48; in Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 2650 with a change of -10, the basis was 331, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.81; for PTA in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 4371 with a change of 34, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.88; for PP in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 6528 with a change of -12, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.70; for LLDPE in North China, the spot price converted to futures was 6880 with no change, the basis was -49, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.16; for high - end PVC, the spot price converted to futures was 4575 with a change of -5, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.66; for low - end PVC, the spot price converted to futures was 4475 with a change of -5, the basis was -190, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.37; for asphalt in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 3550 with no change, the basis was 271, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.52; in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 3410 with a change of -50, the basis was 211, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.54; in South China, the spot price converted to futures was 3500 with no change, the basis was 221, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.58; for ethylene glycol in the domestic market, the spot price converted to futures was 4153 with a change of 32, the basis was 64, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.54; for soda ash, the spot price converted to futures was 1140 with no change, the basis was -95, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.71; for pulp in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 4965 with a change of -10, the basis was 109, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.95; for staple fiber in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 6115 with a change of 10, the basis was 23, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.35; for urea, the spot price converted to futures was 1490 with no change, the basis was -114, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.90; for natural rubber in Shanghai, the spot price converted to futures was 14560 with no change, the basis was -340, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70; for whole latex natural rubber, the spot price converted to futures was 13700 with a change of 5, the basis was -1200, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.62; for 20 - number rubber in Qingdao, the spot price converted to futures was 1825 with no change, the basis was 779, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 1.00; for styrene, the spot price converted to futures was 6605 with a change of 70, the basis was 5, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.90 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - As of October 16, 2025, for copper, the spot price converted to futures was 85180 with a change of -70, the basis was 70, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.27; for international copper, the spot price converted to futures was 75495 with a change of -5, the basis was -35, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.73; for aluminum, the spot price converted to futures was 20950 with a change of 30, the basis was 0, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.29; for zinc, the spot price converted to futures was 21920 with a change of -90, the basis was -40, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.60; for lead, the spot price converted to futures was 16950 with a change of 50, the basis was -210, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.40; for nickel, the spot price converted to futures was 121350 with a change of -100, the basis was 400, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.78; for tin, the spot price converted to futures was 281200 with a change of -500, the basis was -150, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.16 [4] Agricultural Products - On October 16, 2025, for 43% soybean meal in Jiangsu, the spot price converted to futures was 2900 with no change, the basis was -7, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.03; for first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, the spot price converted to futures was 8450 with a change of -10, the basis was 194, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.35; for 36% rapeseed meal with the average price in Guangdong, the spot price converted to futures was 2500 with a change of 10, the basis was 136, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.88; for rapeseed oil with the market average price, the spot price converted to futures was 10407 with a change of -50, the basis was 472, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.99; for 24° palm oil in Guangzhou, the spot price converted to futures was 9190 with a change of -20, the basis was -122, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.97; for cotton nationwide, the spot price converted to futures was 14420 with a change of 20, the basis was 1100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.67; for white sugar in Guangxi, the spot price converted to futures was 5790 with no change, the basis was 382, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.48; in Yunnan, the spot price converted to futures was 5860 with a change of -10, the basis was 452, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.69; for fresh eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 2890 with a change of 110, the basis was 72, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.12; in Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price converted to futures was 2820 with a change of 110, the basis was 2, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.22; in Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 2750 with a change of 150, the basis was -68, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.34; in Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 2850 with a change of 150, the basis was 32, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.36; for soybeans in Bei'an, the spot price converted to futures was 4040 with no change, the basis was 22, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.58; in Jiamusi, the spot price converted to futures was 4100 with no change, the basis was 82, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.20; for corn in Changchun, the spot price converted to futures was 2240 with no change, the basis was 129, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.58; in Weifang, the spot price converted to futures was 2360 with no change, the basis was 249, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.55; for starch in Changchun, the spot price converted to futures was 2580 with no change, the basis was 174, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.70; in Weifang, the spot price converted to futures was 2605 with no change, the basis was 209, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.82; for live pigs in Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 11070 with a change of 50, the basis was -835, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.93; for red dates in Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 9500 with no change, the basis was -1860, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.91; for apples in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 7400 with no change, the basis was -1110, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.66 [5] Other Explanations - Futures prices are the prices of the main contracts. For varieties with night trading, they are the night - trading closing prices; for varieties without night trading, they are the afternoon closing prices of the previous trading day; for non - ferrous metals, they are the noon closing prices of the previous trading day [5] - The deviation degree represents the degree of the basis deviating from the historical 500 trading days (about two years). It is between -1 and 1. 0 means it is at the historical average level. The closer it is to 1, the higher it is than the average; the closer it is to -1, the lower it is than the average. If the number of historical valid data is less than 500, all historical data are used [6] - In the spread, the spot area selects the first area of each variety [6] - Since the basis of thermal coal has no reference value, no data is shown [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving factors are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal chemical industry are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Outer - market prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is high [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 700, and export is good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be alleviated to neutral [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent caustic soda export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' spot and relevant indicators changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2228 to 2305, and the import profit remained unchanged at 325 [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic focuses on the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has potential demand, but port reverse flow impacts inland valuation. Xingxing's operation situation and inventory accumulation also affect the market. Import variables such as Indian purchases from Iran and unplanned maintenance should be noted [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 785. The prices of various polyethylene products in different regions changed. For example, the North China LL price decreased from 6980 to 6880, and the import profit changed from 14 to - 84 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Inventory is neutral overall. Attention should be paid to factors such as LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6450 to 6200, and other prices and indicators also changed. For example, the export profit increased from - 33 to - 16 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Valuation indicators are in a certain state. Future supply and demand are affected by factors such as exports and PDH device maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained stable at 2400 in some days, and other prices and indicators had minor changes. For example, the export profit decreased from 408 to 424 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity implementation, exports, coal prices, and terminal orders in Q4 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the near - month spread weakened, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased and was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. ARA's residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low during the same period. EIA's residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, and Fujeirah slightly increased its inventory and was at a low level compared to the same period. The Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 3.55, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 0.38. The LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged [1]. - **Singapore**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.22, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.98, and Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.04. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 1.62, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.67, the 380 basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.8, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, FU 01 increased by 11, FU 05 increased by 5, FU 09 increased by 8, FU 01 - 05 increased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 3 [2]. Domestic LU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 1, LU 05 increased by 11, LU 09 increased by 23, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 24 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. On Thursday, the market declined due to shipping companies' push for price cuts at the end of October. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the price increase announcements in the first half of November are expected to have poor implementation. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the December contract is high, and long - positions are back in a driver - dominated period. Geopolitics has a large impact on 2026 contracts [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1100.9 with a - 1.76% change, EC2512 at 1651.1 with a - 3.37% change, EC2602 at 1429.2 with a - 2.34% change, EC2604 at 1119.9 with a - 1.94% change, and EC2606 at 1281.2 with a - 1.94% change [2][27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2461, 27124, 5516, 3388, and 302 respectively. The open interests were 10060, 25798, 20, 13858, and 1547 respectively, with changes of - 1275, - 1225, - 463, 233, and 37 [2][27]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 550.2, with a month - on - month increase of 37.8 and a week - on - week decrease of - 100.3. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 221.9, with a month - on - month decrease of - 23.3 and a week - on - week decrease of - 11.1 [2][27]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - **SCFI**: As of 2025/10/13, it was 1031.80 points, a - 1.40% change from the previous period. In terms of dollars/TEU, it was 1068, a 9.99% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 1287.15 points, a - 8.19% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 698.67 points, an 11.39% change from the previous period [2][27]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - Week40 - 41: The average quotation was about 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - Week42: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars. Offline, OA quoted 1800, PA 1400, and GEMINI about 1600 US dollars, with an estimated average of 1560 US dollars (equivalent to 1100 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - November price - increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo collection of many shipping companies in week 43 and high shipping capacity in week 44 (330,000 TEU), the expected price increases are difficult to implement [3][28]. 3.4 Related News - On October 17, US President Trump stated that if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, the US will have no choice but to enter and eliminate them. Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiation of the Gaza cease - fire [4][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - **Market Situation**: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - **Market Situation**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - There is no information about the core views of the report in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On October 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major economies showed various values and changes. For example, the US was 4.034, with a one - week change of - 0.105, a one - month change of - 0.013, and a one - year change of 0.021. Japan was 3.503, with a one - week change of - 0.091, a one - month change of - 0.042, and a one - year change of - 0.456 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Also on October 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury bond yields of some major economies were presented. The US was 3.480, with a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.130, and a one - year change of - 0.180. Japan was 0.913, with a one - week change of - 0.012, a one - month change of 0.064, and a one - year change of 0.514 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: As of October 16, 2025, the dollar - to - major emerging economies currency exchange rates had different values and changes. For the Brazilian real, it was 5.521 on that day, with a one - week change of 2.82%, a one - month change of 2.07%, and a one - year change of - 0.24%. The on - shore RMB was 7.135, with a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of 0.20%, and a one - year change of 1.02% [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, major economies' stock indexes had their respective closing values and changes. The S&P 500 closed at 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 2.71%, a one - month change of 0.31%, and a one - year change of 13.93%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 26290.320, with a one - week change of - 1.73%, a one - month change of 0.34%, and a one - year change of 25.63% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.34%, a one - month change of 0.28%, and a one - year change of 5.19%. The emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index was 1746.620, with a one - week change of - 0.45%, a one - month change of - 0.08%, and a one - year change of 10.98% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3916.23 with a 0.10% increase. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 4618.42 with a 0.26% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 14.40 with a 0.09环比 change. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.26 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change. The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.37 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1098.75, and the 5 - day average was - 803.28. The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fund flow was 70.26, and the 5 - day average was - 110.92 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19311.38 with a - 1417.21环比 change. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5605.67 with a - 467.59环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.42 with a - 0.62% amplitude. The basis of IH was - 0.20 with a - 0.01% amplitude [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.165, 105.705, 107.870, and 105.600 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.03% [6]. - The domestic money market's R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3531%, 1.4751%, and 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00BP, 1.00BP, and 0.00BP [6].