Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 had a closing price of 1716.7, a decline of -0.05%, a basis of 142.6, a trading volume of 453, an open interest of 2551, and an open interest change of -261 [2][28] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1227.0, a decline of -1.82%, a basis of 632.3, a trading volume of 25237, an open interest of 35881, and an open interest change of -3788 [2][28] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1542.8, a decline of -2.11%, a basis of 316.5, a trading volume of 5606, an open interest of 12303, and an open interest change of 997 [2][28] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1607.0, a decline of -2.33%, a basis of 252.3, a trading volume of 694, an open interest of 1594, and an open interest change of -72 [2][28] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1122.5, a decline of -2.49%, a basis of 736.8, a trading volume of 2674, an open interest of 8134, and an open interest change of -799 [2][28] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 489.7 the previous day, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of -36.8 [2][28] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -315.8 the previous day, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of -68.4 [2][28] Group 3: Index Information - The spot price of the European line was 1859.31 points on January 26, 2026, a decline of -4.86% from the previous period [2][28] - The SCFI of the European line was 1418 dollars/TEU on January 30, 2026, a decline of -11.10% from the previous period [2][28] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk quotes in February, and the expectation of rush shipments in March may prevent the short - term market from falling [3][29] - For the near - term contracts, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract, and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium in the market. In the future, focus on the PA alliance's quotes and geopolitical situations [3][29] - For the far - term contracts, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3][29] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday [4][30] - The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. MSK's price for week 8 - 9 is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][30] Group 6: News - On February 1, Iranian officials said that media reports about the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's plan to hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and the Revolutionary Guard had not issued an official statement on the matter [5][31] - On February 2, the US released a signal to negotiate with Iran, and the two sides may hold talks in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have the intention to negotiate, there are still serious differences on many key issues, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [6][32]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/02 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/26 | 60.63 | 65.59 | 61.58 | 1.97 | 0.82 | -4.96 | 1.93 | 182.01 | 10.85 | 256.80 | 42.27 | | 2026/01/27 | 62.39 | 67.57 | 61.86 | 1.57 | 0.98 | -5.18 | 1.97 | 186.52 | 10.77 | 264.62 | 43.57 | | 2026/01/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have parking plans. Currently, methanol has limited upward and downward space, and it is more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [1] - For PE, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, oil - and coal - based profits turn worse, upstream inventories are decreasing while social inventories are increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in the 05 contract is under pressure [4] - For PP, the market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for the 05 contract and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [10] - For PVC, the basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the medium - and long - term outlook is poor [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data includes various regional prices such as Hebei, Northwest, CFR Southeast, etc. The price fluctuations are shown, and the MTO profit situation restricts the upward space of methanol prices [1] - Graphs show the trends of MA spot price, basis, regional price differences, production profits, MTO profits, international price ratios, etc. [1] PE - Price and inventory data: On January 2, 2026, there are prices for Northeast Asia ethylene, various PE products in different regions, and related inventory and basis data. The daily changes show price and basis fluctuations [4] - Market conditions: The market is volatile, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changes in production profits and inventory levels. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL is under pressure [4] PP - Price and inventory data: There are prices for Northeast Asia propylene, various PP products in different regions, import and export profits, and basis data on January 26 - 30, 2026, along with daily changes [10] - Market conditions: The market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral [10] PVC - Price and profit data: From January 26 - 30, 2026, there are prices for Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and different production methods of PVC in different regions, as well as profit and basis data [11][12] - Market conditions: The basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak [12]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price fluctuated significantly this week, with the US's ability to siphon inventory waning, but global copper consumption remains strong, and the copper fundamentals are still supply - constrained and demand - driven. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the stabilization time depends on the precious metals' stabilization [1]. - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply this week due to multiple factors. If there is a price correction, consider going long, and a deterioration in the Iran situation may push the price up [1]. - The zinc supply side has issues like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore, while the demand side is seasonally weak. The market is optimistic about zinc's long - term allocation, and attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production and weak demand. The Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction is a short - term sentiment factor [3]. - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term, focusing on the downstream's Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm after the regeneration maintenance [7]. - The tin price fluctuated sharply this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. In the long term, the price may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. If the intermediate inventory further decreases, there is a large space for positive arbitrage between months [11]. - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - The copper price showed two - way large - amplitude fluctuations this week, and the overall consumption is good. The copper price is expected to rise in the medium - term, and the short - term stabilization depends on precious metals [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fluctuated sharply due to seasonal factors, external disturbances, and supply increments. Consider going long on price corrections, and the Iran situation may impact the price [1]. Zinc - The zinc supply side has problems like declining TC and marginal tightening of domestic ore. The demand side is seasonally weak, and there are opportunities for reverse - arbitrage [2]. Nickel - The nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, weak demand, and the Indonesian quota reduction as a sentiment factor [3]. Lead - The lead's supply and demand contradiction is easing, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the short term, focusing on downstream stocking after regeneration maintenance [7]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated sharply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, it may decline significantly in the second half of 2026 if the macro situation changes [10]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon's supply is shrinking, with a de - stocking expectation in February. The price is expected to fluctuate with costs and move in a cycle - bottom range in the long term [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate's short - term fundamentals are strong with a de - stocking trend. There is a large space for positive arbitrage between months if intermediate inventory decreases [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in production, entering the demand off - season, and a slight increase in inventory. The Indonesian quota news is a short - term sentiment factor [14].

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/02 SP主力合约收盘价： 5300.00 | 日期 | 2026/01/30 | 2026/01/29 | 2026/01/28 | 2026/01/27 | 2026/01/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5300.00 | 5388.00 | 5374.00 | 5342.00 | 5374.00 | | 折美元价 | 666.08 | 677.54 | 675.82 | 670.56 | 674.67 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.63326% | 0.26051% | 0.59903% | -0.59546% | -0.44461% | | 山东银星基差 | 75 | 12 | 26 | 58 | 26 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 90 | 12 | 26 | 58 | 26 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 699.0 1.0 6.0 9.0 -66.0 25省终端可用天数 18.1 0.3 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 秦皇岛5000 614.0 1.0 8.0 19.0 -56.0 25省终端供煤 621.3 0.6 12.8 -18.7 -1.5 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -65.0 北方港库存 2330.0 -10.0 -98.0 -324.0 49.3 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -40.0 北方锚地船舶 85.0 -5.0 7.0 23.0 31.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 10.0 5.0 -75.0 北方港调入量 151.2 6.5 8.3 19.7 50.2 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -92.0 北方港吞吐量 176.9 12.3 13.8 43.6 42.0 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 CBCFI海运指数 614.7 -23.8 -66.7 2.9 139.3 25省终端日耗 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/02 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/26 | 2190 | 2300 | 2260 | 2440 | 7 | 0 318 | 2750 | 2820 | 97 | -90 | | 2026/01/27 | 2190 | 2300 | 2270 | 2440 | 17 | 0 325 | 2750 | 2820 | 155 | -92 | | 2026/01/28 | 2190 | 2290 | 2280 | 2440 | 16 | 10 328 | 2750 | 2820 | 165 | -92 | | 2026/01/29 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2430 | 9 | 10 310 | 2750 | 2820 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 2, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [9] Summary of Key Points 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the BR main contract on January 30th was 13,390, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on January 30th was 53,381, a daily decrease of 14,803 and a weekly decrease of 38,273 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on January 30th was 672,720, a daily increase of 204,234 and a weekly decrease of 74,749 [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The warehouse receipt quantity on January 30th was 28,320, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 800 [4]. - **Virtual - Physical Ratio**: The virtual - physical ratio on January 30th was 9.42, a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 7 [4]. Price Differences - **Spread between Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The spread on January 30th was -90, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 25 [4]. - **Spread between Contracts**: The 02 - 03 spread on January 30th was -82, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5; the 03 - 04 spread was -60, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 100 [4]. - **Spread between Different Rubber Types**: The RU - BR spread on January 30th was 2,970, a daily decrease of 330 and a weekly increase of 5; the NR - BR spread was -152, a daily decrease of 220 [4]. Spot Market - **Domestic Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on January 30th was 12,950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50; the Transfar market price was 12,900, with no daily or weekly change; the Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily or weekly change [4]. - **International Market Prices**: The CFR Northeast Asia price on January 30th was 1,550, with no daily or weekly change; the CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,785, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 [4]. Profit - **Spot Processing Profit**: The spot processing profit on January 30th was -164, a daily decrease of 51 and a weekly increase of 407 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on January 30th was 282, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 77 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on January 30th was 500, a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 175 [4]. 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - **Domestic Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on January 30th was 10,700, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 350; the Jiangsu market price was 10,600, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 300; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,600, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - **International Market Price**: The CFR China price on January 30th was 1,270, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 70 [4]. Profit - **Ethylene Cracking Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit on January 29th was -27 [4]. - **Carbon Tetra - Extraction Profit**: The carbon tetra - extraction profit on January 29th was 3,513 [4]. - **Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 30th was 1,940, a daily increase of 22 and a weekly decrease of 370 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit on January 30th was 478, a daily increase of 47 and a weekly decrease of 829 [4]. - **Export Profit**: The export profit on January 30th was -1,034, a daily increase of 98 and a weekly increase of 2,471 [4]. 3. Production Profits of Related Products - **SBR Production Profit**: The SBR production profit on January 30th was 588, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 313 [4]. - **ABS Production Profit**: The ABS production profit on January 29th was -1,315 [4]. - **SBS Production Profit**: The SBS production profit on January 30th was -1,175, with no daily change [4].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]