有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 1 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 0.1%至 79820 元/吨。美关 税政策对市场的影响延续。特朗普对铜征税预期，导致全球大量精炼铜 运抵美国，非美供应减少，叠加智利 Altonorte 炼厂突发不可抗力事件， 刺激铜价大幅攀高。随后美宣布对进口汽车加征关税，市场担忧贸易壁 垒将加剧输入型通胀压力，而全球经济亦将受损，美元借势走强，铜价 承压回落。国内现货市场：下游畏高，采购需求疲弱，现货升水亦承压 走跌，但由于市场到货依旧不多，社库维持小幅去库趋势，部分持货商 仍存挺价惜售情绪。宏观因素继续搅动全球供需格局，美国大量铜到岸， 美铜市场或面临套利压力，全球铜价或延续调整势头。下周临近清明假 期，铜价回调或带动下游一定的补库需求，沪铜有止跌企稳的可能。传 统消费旺季即将来临，而铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面临较大的原 料保供和保本压力，排产仍有降低的可能性，铜价整体仍易涨难跌，短 期或高位宽幅震荡运行。技术上看，沪铜主力合约 3 波上行形态完整， 有短期见顶回调迹象，建议多单逢高离场，待回调企稳补仓。铜价参考 区间 79000-81500。 ◆ 铝： 截至 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格探底回升，杭州中天螺纹 3230，环比前一日上涨 20 元/吨，基差 60（+9），期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近遇支撑，跟 随原料价格反弹。产业方面，钢联统计口径，上周螺纹钢产量、表观消费 均小幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期铁水产量 仍有回升空间；宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期，不过 1-2 月 经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉 谷电成本附近，静态估值处于中性偏低水平；驱动方面，上半年需求峰 值仍处于验证期、关税影响及国内应对措施有待继续观察，预计价格震 荡运行为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强。主要受焦炭现货提涨、巴西关税小作文 和国内螺纹成交火爆等多方面因素影响。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 788 元/湿吨（+14）。普氏 62%指数 104.10 美元/吨（+0.25），月均 104.10 美元/吨。PBF 基差 42 元/吨（-4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term prices of various products in the feed and breeding industry have different trends, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, and consumption seasons. Strategies for different varieties are given based on these trends [1][2][4][7][8] - There are both upward and downward pressures on the prices of different products, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each product [1][2][4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Live Pigs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.8 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 14.2 - 14.7 yuan/kg; and in Guangdong, it was stable at 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supported by factors like industry profits, low - position entry of second - round fattening, and holiday demand, but also pressured by cautious second - round fattening at high prices, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. Prices will oscillate around 14 yuan/kg [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: From March to September 2024, supply will increase due to the continuous slow growth of fertile sows from May to November 2024 and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the risk of price decline intensifies. The long - term price is also under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: In the short term, supply pressure is postponed. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For contracts 05, 07, and 09, pay attention to their respective pressure levels and sell out - of - the - money call options [1] 2. Eggs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and holiday - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: High - profit - driven high - level replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025 will lead to an increase in new - laying hens in the second quarter, and the supply increase in the second half of the year is difficult to reverse [2] - **Strategy**: For contract 05, wait and see; for contracts 08 and 09, take a bearish view, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2] 3. Oils Palm Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the national palm oil price rose by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 9610 - 9850 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, exports increased slightly, and the inventory may have reached an inflection point. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the inventory has decreased to 36.87 tons [4] - **Long - term Outlook**: After April, the production in the origin will increase, and the demand will weaken after the festival. The price may decline from the high level [4] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of palm oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound. The domestic soybean oil price changed by 10 - 90 yuan/ton to 8150 - 8320 yuan/ton [3][4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Influenced by factors such as the potential increase in biodiesel blending, lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, and large - scale Brazilian soybean listing, the price will oscillate in a range [5] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply pressure will be large from April to May, and the inventory reduction ability will be limited [5] - **Strategy**: Contract 05 of soybean oil runs in the 7700 - 8200 range in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy [7] Rapeseed Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the domestic rapeseed oil price rose 90 yuan/ton to 9360 - 9680 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, the price is relatively strong [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: After the second quarter, due to factors such as reduced Canadian rapeseed planting area and inventory reduction, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of rapeseed oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean 05 contract rose 19.5 cents to 1034.25 cents/bushel, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2804 yuan/ton [7] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by factors such as Brazilian soybean harvest pressure, domestic inventory reduction falling short of expectations, and increased supply in the future, the price trend is weak [7] - **Long - term Outlook**: Import cost increase and possible reduction in US soybean planting area will provide support for the price [7] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 and 07 are weak in the short term, short on rallies; for m2509, build long positions at low prices [7] 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the new - corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2160 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Short - term Outlook**: There is selling pressure in the short term, but there is also support from factors such as trade - end price support and downstream replenishment demand [8] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply - demand situation will tighten, but the price increase space is limited due to factors such as substitutes [8] - **Strategy**: Take a generally stable - to - bullish attitude. For contract 05, look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks; pay attention to 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 calendar spreads [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybean active contract rose 18.75 cents to 1032.75 cents/bushel; soybean meal main contract fell 47 yuan/ton to 2804 yuan/ton; and other varieties also had corresponding price changes [10]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PVC is expected to experience low - level, weak oscillations due to factors such as weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory. The price is likely to face pressure around 5200 yuan/ton [2]. - For caustic soda, the upward drive of the futures market is insufficient, but the downward movement is also cautious. Attention should be paid to factors like inventory and alumina production [3]. - Urea prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction. Although supply remains abundant, the smooth inventory reduction process drives up the average price [4][6]. - Methanol prices are expected to move within a range of 2500 - 2650 yuan/ton, with both domestic and port inventories decreasing, but the high price has limited downstream acceptance [7]. Summary by Product PVC - **Prices**: On April 1, the PVC main 05 - contract closed at 5099 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market and export restrictions. Supply is under pressure with new investment plans and high - level caustic soda production. Currently, maintenance is limited, and export is stable through price cuts [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention on new production, spring maintenance, downstream resumption, and policies [2]. Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On April 1, the caustic soda main SH05 - contract closed at 2515 yuan/ton (+3), and there were price adjustments in the Shandong market [3]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3]. - **Outlook**: The upward drive is limited, but the downward movement is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and alumina production [3]. Urea - **Prices**: The main contract rose 3.27% to close at 1929 yuan/ton, with different spot prices in different regions [4]. - **Supply**: The national urea operating rate was 84.83%, and the daily output decreased slightly to 19.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and industrial demand was stable. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 210,000 tons, and the port inventory was basically unchanged [4][6]. - **Outlook**: Supply remains abundant, but inventory reduction supports price increases. Attention should be paid to factors such as equipment maintenance, compound fertilizer production, and export policies [6]. Methanol - **Prices**: The main contract fell 0.76% to close at 2486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market decreased by 52 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 84.06%, and the weekly output was 1.8268 billion tons [7]. - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefin operating rate decreased, and traditional demand did not improve significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: Both enterprise and port inventories decreased. The enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, and the port inventory was 773,800 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to move within a range, with attention on factors such as the macro - environment, equipment maintenance, and international crude oil prices [7].

市场震荡波折，关注IH、IF 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/04/01 【长江期货| 研究咨询部】 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 Z0021210 咨询电话：027-65777177 联系人：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 咨询电话：027-65777169 投资策略：市场震荡波折，关注IH、IF 主要逻辑 行情回顾：全球宏观格局正经历东升西降的叙事重构，这一结构性变迁持续主导着市场预期与风险偏好。需注意二季度市场将面 临多重变量交织：其一，经济复苏的节奏与弹性需观察政策传导实效，特别是 "两新两重" 投资与消费提振的协同效应；其二，年报 季业绩兑现与盈利预期修正可能引发风格再平衡；其三，全球流动性边际变化与地缘扰动仍存，或加剧资金跨境波动。 后市展望：国内权益市场的风险溢价中枢能否维持相对高位、资产价格中枢能否延续上移趋势，本质上取决于宏观基本面的修复 进程能否有效承接前期科技板块的估值扩张动能。就市场运行结构而言，板块间的分化将成为中期维度的重要特征。考虑到盈利脉冲 式修复尚未形成趋势性支撑，市场对企业经营质量的重估将更多聚焦于业绩确定性 ...

长江期货PTA月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-1 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 数据来源：隆众资讯、博易大师、长江期货 01 行情回顾-3月PTA先跌后涨 n 3月PTA期货主力合约期价先跌后涨，主要 受国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初， 受国际油价持续走低影响，成本支撑减弱， PTA期价下行；月中，恒力石化、仪征化纤 以及海伦石化如期检修，国内供应大幅萎缩， 虽然成本支撑不足，但随着市场供需去库， PTA加工费好转，较低的价格吸引部分下游 企业开始备货；下旬，一方面国际外围市场 宏观变化，中东地缘因素再起，成本端油价 低位反弹，上游PX装置逐步开始春检，而下 游聚酯需求逐步回升，供需转好之下PTA价 格开始回升。 去库延续，区间震荡 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 02 供应方面：减产降负，供 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格弱势下跌，杭州中天螺纹 3210，环比前一日下跌 40 元/吨，基差 51（-2）。产业方面，钢联统计口径，上周螺纹钢产量、 表观消费均小幅回升，去库速度略有加快，另外五大材去库顺畅，短期 铁水产量仍有回升空间；宏观方面，国内两会政策力度基本符合预期， 不过 1-2 月经济数据仍然羸弱，地产持续下行、基建增速略有改善，国 外关注 4 月 2 日美国的对等关税。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价 格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值处于中性偏低水平；驱动方面，上 半年需求峰值仍处于验证期、关税影响及国内应对措施有待继续观察， 预计价格震荡运行为主，短期 RB2505 关注 3100 附近支撑。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 张佩云 ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格震荡偏弱。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 774 元/湿吨（- 10）。普氏 62%指数 104.55 美元/吨（0），月均 102.43 美元/吨。PBF 基差 45 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,647.8 万 吨，环+132.7。45 港口+247 钢厂总库 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 白宫：特朗普将于 4 月 2 日决定最终关税政策，对等关税计划不会包含任何 豁免条款，对股市所受关税计划影响"不以为然"。中国 3 月官方制造业 PMI 50.5，制造业扩张速度一年来最快。东部战区组织陆海空火等兵力位台岛周 边开展联合演训，检验联合作战实战能力。关税扰动临近，演训或短期提振 市场情绪，叠加财报季市场或更关注基本面现实，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债市多空交织，跨季之后，机构卖债行为对债市的压制作用有望得到一 定程度的缓解。由于 3 月份是财政支出规模较大的月份，财政资金可能会对 4 月初的资金面形成一定的支撑。若二季度国债单期发行规模较大且发行较 为密集，可能会对市场造成一定的扰动，特别是需要关注中长债发行日之前 的几个交易日，机构可能会提前调仓来应对。从短期来看，债市已经摆脱了 此前由利空因素主导的局面，但市场走势可能会较为反复，不同期限和券种 的表现分化较为明显，整体而言，做多债市的赔率尚未出现明显的提升。 ◆ 策略建议： 适时止盈。 研究咨询部 2025-04-01 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 3 月 31 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5151 元/吨（-39），常州市场价 4890 元/吨（-30），主力基差-261 元/吨（+9），广州市场价 5050 元/吨（-30）， 杭州市场价 4950 元/吨（-20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。目前检修不多，4 月中旬开始环比有增多同比偏少，出口以价换 量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复；估值中性，基本面驱动有限，金融属性 强于商品属性，跟随大盘波动，预计 PVC 低位震荡偏弱运行，上方关注 5200 压力。后期关注新增投产进度、春检落地情况、下游复工以及出口 情况等，政策端关注国内货币、财政、能耗等政策情况，以及美联储降 息、特朗普政策关税等。 ◆ 烧碱： 3 月 31 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2512 ...