Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are judged to have trends such as trend short, oscillating short - bias, oscillating, oscillating long - bias, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, varieties are divided into short - bias, oscillating, and long - bias [3][4][8]. - A series of macro - economic events have occurred, including central bank monetary policy adjustments, corporate incentive stock grants, new energy vehicle sales data, and international trade and tariff policies [11][12]. - Different investment strategies are proposed for various futures varieties, such as short - term strong - trend observation for stock index futures, a steepening strategy for bond futures, and different trading suggestions for black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical futures [15][16][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank's July data shows that SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 100 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase a net injection of 188 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 200 billion yuan. There was no open - market treasury bond trading in July [11]. - The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to clarify customer due - diligence requirements for financial institutions. For remittances abroad of over 5,000 yuan or the equivalent in foreign currency, the remitter's identity must be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling over 10,000 yuan of non - registered prepaid cards at one time [11]. - Tesla's board approved a grant of 96 million incentive shares to CEO Elon Musk, subject to his continued leadership for the next two years and a five - year holding period [11]. - In July, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.18 million, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 4% month - on - month decrease. Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of mid - July, 22 banks in Hong Kong were approved to sell digital asset - related products, 13 to sell tokenized securities, and five to provide digital asset custody services [12]. - Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's resale of Russian oil [12]. - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a trade statement [12]. - Since April, the issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, reaching a new high in July with 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to observe the short - term strong trend and pay attention to the performance at the upper resistance level. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday, with pharmaceutical and military stocks rising. The market turnover was 1.52 trillion yuan. There are discussions about a possible US - China agreement and Trump's potential visit to China in early September. After the US non - farm payroll data was revised down, the market is betting on a Fed rate cut in September. The stock index has rebounded after a five - week rise and a pull - back to the 20 - day line [15]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider a steepening strategy in the short term due to the loose money supply. After the cross - month period, the central bank's OMO maintained a large - scale net injection, and the money supply was loose. The long - term bond market was affected by the stock index's performance and the uncertainty of interest tax, resulting in large intraday fluctuations in bond futures [16]. Black Futures Steel and Ore - The "anti - involution" statement has been relaxed. The black market is expected to be in a high - level shock. Fundamentally, demand may weaken seasonally, but the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore prices are oscillating strongly. The market adjustment is due to the change in the "anti - involution" statement in the Politburo meeting [19][20]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level shock stage. The adjustment of trading limits by the exchange and the change in the "anti - involution" statement have affected the market. Fundamentally, supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported coal supply [21]. Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. The price is in a reasonable range, and chasing short positions may be risky. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended [22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended, and for glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and needs to digest speculative inventory [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation to short on rallies. Alumina prices may see a short - term basis repair but are expected to be shorted on rallies in the long term due to high supply and inventory [26]. Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. With rising processing fees and increasing supply, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices will oscillate downward [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The current tight - balance fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, there is pressure from industrial hedging [29]. Polysilicon - Policy expectations have cooled, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt game contradictions. The supply - demand situation is expected to turn to inventory accumulation [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream production motivation, inventory levels, and international trade policies [33]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increased supply, but the decline may be limited by festival demand. International sugar markets are expected to have a supply surplus [35][36]. Eggs - The price of the 09 contract has hit a record low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is high, and it is recommended to wait and see, with caution when going long [38]. Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position positive - spread strategy. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [39]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures, but there is also bottom support. It is advisable to focus on short - term trading [40][41]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather in the production area [42]. Pigs - It is recommended to short the near - month contract and consider a 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak in the short term [43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation. The price is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US sanctions, and peak - season demand. There may be a short - term rebound [45]. Fuel Oil - There is no main - line logic for oil prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US employment data, and sanctions against Russia [46][47]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market sentiment is turning bearish. It is recommended to be slightly short - biased and beware of callback risks [48]. Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment and are gradually returning to fundamentals. It is recommended to close short positions and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. A slightly short - biased strategy or selling call options can be considered [50]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [51]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no main - line logic, and asphalt is in a seasonal off - peak season, with slow inventory reduction [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to short on rallies. The cost support is weak, and the demand is low. The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester chain varies [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. The price is likely to fall [54]. Pulp - The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the improvement of spot transactions [54][55]. Logs - The spot price has increased, and the market is trading to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices [56]. Urea - The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has boosted the market. The domestic market sentiment has improved, and a shock strategy is recommended [56].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 沥青 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | 燃油 | 氧化铝 | 三十债 | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 尿素 | 二债 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | | | 棉纱 | 铁矿石 | | | | | 棉花 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 焦炭 | | | | | 短 ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 45.15 | 44.94 | -0.21 | 46.74 | 48.68 | 本周产量略有减少，下周检修装置复产 较多，鄂尔多斯40万吨恢复、新疆中泰 | | 产量 | | | | | ...

行情回归基本面，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.36 | 77.33 | -0.03 | 78.62 | 79.73 | 本周产量符合预期，新增检修装置不 多多，未来两周装置检修减少，产量 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 可能会小幅回升。 ...

市场情绪消退，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 61.51 | 61.18 | -0.32 | 65.14 | 63.81 | 本周产量小幅度减少，下周装置检修复 产较多，产量可能会继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 8 月 1 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/8/1 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 橡胶 | 沥青 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 多晶硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 橡胶 | 液化石油气 | | | | 0531-81678626 | | 棉花 | 氧化铝 | | | | 客服电话： | | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | | | 白糖 | 二债 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 尿素 | 五债 | | | | | | 瓶片 | 三十债 | | | ...

2025 年 7 月 31 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 铝 | | 液化石油气 | 原油 | | | 锌 | | 三十债 | 燃油 | | | 氧化铝 | | 白糖 | 沥青 | | | 棉花 | | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | 棉纱 | | 多晶硅 | 五债 | | | 尿素 | | 乙二醇 | 十债 | | | 硅铁 | | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 纯碱 | | PTA | 上证50股指期货 | | | 生猪 | ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 宏观资讯 2025 年 7 月 29 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/7/29 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 液化石油气 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 锌 | 原油 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 橡胶 | 二债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 鸡蛋 | 氧化铝 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 塑料 | 白糖 | 十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 甲醇 | 铝 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 短纤 | 沥青 | | | | | 焦煤 | PTA | 五债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 生猪 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trends of various futures are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, the trends are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [4]. - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. For treasury bond futures, consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. For black commodities, prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, prices are expected to show different trends such as high - level oscillation and weakening. For agricultural products, prices are affected by supply and demand and other factors, showing different trends. For energy and chemical products, most are expected to be in a weak or oscillating state [6][7][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The government has introduced a series of policies, such as the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, the deployment of key tasks for the reform and development of the capital market by the CSRC, and the adjustment of the maximum value of the预定 interest rate of new insurance products by insurance companies. Economic data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have rebounded, and the US durable goods orders have declined significantly [8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. The A - share market has shown a pattern of sector rotation. The CSRC has deployed key tasks, and insurance companies are adjusting the预定 interest rate. The profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the movement of stop - profit funds [6][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. The bond market has shown short - term fluctuations, and inflation and the capital situation are the focus. Attention should be paid to the trends of the stock index and commodities [8][9]. Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: Affected by policies, the expectation of increasing inflation through the supply side is rising. The off - season is not weak, and the peak season is not strong. The demand may weaken marginally, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore production is expected to remain high. Prices may enter a short - term oscillating adjustment phase [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply may be reduced due to production inspections, and the demand is stable. However, there is a possibility of a decline in iron water production, and imported coal may put pressure on prices. The adjustment of trading limits has affected prices [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market may open lower and fluctuate greatly on the 28th. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the profit margins have expanded. It is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider taking profits on rallies. The supply of soda ash has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The price of glass has risen, but the demand is mainly speculative [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term range trading is recommended. The prices of both have been affected by regulatory measures and market sentiment [18]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The processing fee is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and prices will oscillate and weaken [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will oscillate strongly before the supply - side disruption expectation is falsified. If the production reduction does not occur for a long time, prices may fall [20]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon has a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the market may fluctuate greatly [21]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating and rebounding under pressure. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies in the long - term. The market is affected by macro and supply - demand factors, and the consumption outlook is still worrying [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decline in import costs. The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the impact of relevant policies [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [33]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended. The market is affected by policies, substitute products, and supply and demand [34][35]. - **Jujubes**: It is recommended to lightly short. The market is in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather [36]. - **Pigs**: Short - term short - selling is recommended for near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to risk control. Arbitrage strategies can be considered [36]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and trade negotiations [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are weaker than crude oil, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation, the Middle East power generation demand, and the shipping market [41]. - **Plastics**: The market sentiment may lead to a slight strength in polyolefins in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [41][42]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as raw material supply and market sentiment [43]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider short - selling options. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by sentiment [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2509 contract is expected to be under pressure in the context of the rising price of liquid chlorine and the weakening of commodity futures [44]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamentals are stable, and prices follow crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation and the seasonal demand [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is not recommended to go long, and short - selling can be considered later. The supply may decrease, but the demand is weak [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the long - term. Prices are likely to fall [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate and rise, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot trading [50]. - **Logs**: The spot price has rebounded, and the basis repair logic still exists. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [51]. - **Urea**: Futures are expected to open significantly lower and then oscillate. It is advisable to consider going long after a significant decline [52].