1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and some commodities have started to correct. Methanol and olefins have followed suit and basically returned to their previous oscillation price centers. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking a basis for a significant increase. After the sentiment fades, it will return to fundamentals and enter a weak oscillation pattern. In the long - term, methanol is generally weak due to high supply pressure and sluggish downstream demand growth. The report suggests approaching it with a weak - oscillation mindset [3][89]. - Unilateral strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation approach and consider a strategy of selling call options. Hedge strategy: Stay on the sidelines [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 10 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 23 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes oscillated weakly this week, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 23 yuan/ton [15]. - The coastal basis of methanol oscillated this week, and the inland basis also oscillated. The inland market prices and the market prices in the northwest region oscillated this week [24][35]. - The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol oscillated weakly [45]. - It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines regarding spreads [54]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain Profits - There are many new methanol maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, and methanol production has started to increase [67][69]. - The dimethyl ether operating rate oscillated, the formaldehyde operating rate rebounded oscillatingly, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [74][77]. - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and MTO profits continued to recover [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Inventory - Methanol slightly destocked at ports and upstream this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory accumulation speed [85]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and methanol will enter a weak - oscillation pattern. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach, consider a strategy of selling call options for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for the hedge strategy [89][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly increased, and next week, with the resumption of many maintenance devices, production is expected to rise to around 480,000 tons. Exports this week continued to decline, and domestic apparent demand growth may be lower than the expected -2%. Inventory accumulated this week, and if domestic demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation rate may accelerate. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has deteriorated, and PVC prices have continued to weaken. Upstream开工率 is stable, mid - stream traders are cautious, and downstream开工率 is weak, with low enthusiasm for purchasing [6][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda increased due to the resumption of many maintenance devices, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The export volume in June was less than expected, and the apparent demand this week decreased slightly. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and if the apparent demand remains the same next week, it may continue to accumulate. The profit of caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the price of upstream manufacturers has slightly decreased [107][110][111]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - This week, PVC production increased from 449,400 tons to 467,400 tons, with an increase of 18,000 tons. The ethylene - based production remained stable at 124,900 tons, while the calcium - carbide - based production increased from 324,600 tons to 342,500 tons. The import volume remained at 15,000 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 57,500 tons per week. The apparent demand increased from 397,700 tons to 400,300 tons. The total inventory increased from 793,300 tons to 818,000 tons, with an increase of 24,600 tons [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC slightly strengthened, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated weakly. For example, the basis of East China calcium - carbide method decreased from - 75 yuan/ton to - 93 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali have deteriorated. For example, the calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 498 yuan/ton to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. The export profit has improved, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit decreasing from 152 yuan/ton to - 1 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to moderately participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage, have a slightly bearish unilateral allocation, conduct reverse spreads for spreads, and continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for V2509 [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, the production of caustic soda increased from 822,500 tons to 833,000 tons, with an increase of 10,500 tons. The import volume remained at 200 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 46,000 tons per week. The apparent demand decreased from 770,800 tons to 767,500 tons. The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) increased from 233,200 tons to 253,000 tons, with an increase of 19,800 tons [107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is under observation. For example, the 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract decreased from - 61 yuan/ton to - 98 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 104 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of the caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the export profit has strengthened. The profit of Shandong caustic - chlorine combination decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to beware of callback risks for unilateral trading, and there is no suggestion for cash - and - carry arbitrage, spreads, and options for now [111].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly inventory data of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's statistics), including inventory, outbound, inbound, and changes for different origins such as Gabon, Australia, South Africa, Ghana, and others [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Overall Manganese Ore at Tianjin Port - This week's total inventory is 504,037 tons, last week's was 581,284 tons, outbound was 77,247 tons, inbound was 3,503,458 tons, and the change was an increase of 3,426,211 tons [1] By Origin - **Gabon**: Inventory this week is 379,900 tons, last week was 458,326 tons, outbound was 78,426 tons, inbound was 0 tons, a decrease of 78,426 tons, and the inventory proportion is 10.84% [1] - **Australia**: Inventory this week is 84,140 tons, last week was 189,034 tons, outbound was 147,194 tons, inbound was 42,300 tons, a decrease of 41,840 tons, and the inventory proportion is 5.40% [1] - **South Africa**: Inventory this week is 2,435,949 tons, last week was 1,937,05 tons, outbound was 301,244 tons, inbound was 47,133 tons, and the inventory proportion is 69.53% [1] - **Ghana**: Inventory this week is 38,200 tons, last week was 120,000 tons, outbound was 182,700 tons, inbound was 100,900 tons, an increase of 81,800 tons, and the inventory proportion is 5.21% [1] - **Others**: Inventory this week is 315,875 tons, last week was 330,975 tons, outbound was 151,406 tons, inbound was 75,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons, and the inventory proportion is 9.02% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indian urea tender price and the number of bids have increased significantly, and Chinese urea is expected to be exported to the Indian market [1] - Currently, there is basically no agricultural demand, and the compound fertilizer industry is producing based on sales, with some enterprises entering the maintenance period. The downstream demand for compound fertilizers is expected to increase month - on - month, but it is difficult to drive up the urea price significantly, only providing some support [5] - The current spot market is relatively weak, and it is expected that the policy pressure to restrict exports is relatively small. Near the contract roll - over period, one should seize the medium - term opportunities brought by short - term rhythm fluctuations [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From August 1st to August 28th, 2025, the weekly average daily output of urea increased from 18.98 tons to 19.86 tons. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production, 4 stopped enterprises resumed production, and this week, it is expected that 0 enterprises will plan to overhaul, and 1 stopped enterprise will resume production [5] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand has basically ended. In the 32nd week of 2025 (August 1 - 7), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.82 percentage points. The compound fertilizer start - up rate is slowly increasing. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative thermal power generation in China was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, with the rise in temperature, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5] - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [5] - **Valuation**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi urea factories remained stable at 1300 yuan/ton, and the production profit was also stable, with the current profit at a reasonable level [5] - **Strategy**: The futures market focused on the impact of the Indian urea tender on the domestic market last week. The Indian urea tender price increased significantly, and the number of bids, winning bids also increased significantly. There are rumors in the market that China can directly supply 20 - 30 tons of urea to India. The domestic urea spot market sentiment rose to some extent, but the weakness of the domestic spot market remained unchanged, and the spot price dropped to around 1700 yuan/ton near the weekend [5] 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Provided historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, Shanxi large - particle, and Shanxi small - particle regions from 2021 to 2025 [7][8] - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Presented historical data on small - particle urea (Shandong factory port collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port collection cost), small - particle urea (China) FOB price, and small - particle urea (Middle East) FOB price from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - **Phosphate and Potash Fertilizer Prices**: Showed historical price trends of Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong 60% powdered potassium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Displayed historical data on the urea futures 09 contract price, urea futures 9 - 1 spread, and urea 09 contract basis from 2021 to 2025 [15][16] 3.3 Supply - **Urea Output**: Provided historical data on the weekly average daily output of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 to 2025 [18][19] - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Showed historical data on anthracite lump, bituminous coal prices, Shanxi fixed - bed process marginal profit, and Henan new - process marginal profit from 2021 to 2025 [21][22] - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Presented historical data on urea enterprise inventory, urea port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption of urea, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption of urea from 2021 to 2025 [24][25] 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Provided historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate and compound fertilizer inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29] - **Melamine Industry**: Showed historical data on melamine weekly output, melamine price, and melamine/urea price ratio from 2021 to 2025 [30][31] - **Export**: Presented historical data on China's monthly urea export volume and monthly cumulative urea export volume from 2021 to 2025 [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the caustic soda market is in a off - season, but the market is expected to enter the consumption peak season in September and October. The previous positive factors have not disappeared, and the market can refocus on these factors. - The short - selling orders should take profits at an appropriate time, and long - buying orders should enter the market at an appropriate time. The production profit of caustic soda will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The capacity utilization rate in the Northwest increased significantly, slightly increased in North China, and decreased in Northeast China. It is estimated that next week, the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.1%, and the weekly output will be about 804,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: China's alumina production was 1851,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. The production of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 85,100 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The terminal market demand was still weak, and the orders for autumn and winter fabric samples were lower than in previous years. The industry generally expects demand to pick up gradually after mid - September [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The capacity utilization rate of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a week - on - week increase of 2.87% [5]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was - 150 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was 253 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level in the same period of history. The production profit will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali products (32% and 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine), flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, and raw materials (raw salt, coal) from 2021 - 2025 [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production, operating rate, device loss, and cumulative production of caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, the number and quantity of caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are records of the maintenance and planned maintenance of chlor - alkali devices in various regions this week and in the future [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda purchase price, and inventory of alumina in China from 2022 - 2025 [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the weekly operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2021 - 2025 [35][38]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: It shows the production of pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of paper products in upstream factories, and the cumulative production of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard from 2021 - 2025 [41]. - **Export**: The monthly and cumulative export volumes of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [44].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 8 月 8 日 1.趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的基本面等因素。 2.详情请查看下文或扫描二维码查看中泰期货股份有限公司公众号宏观视点、商品看点栏目。 | | | 基于量化指标研判 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | | 玉米 | 豆二 | 沪铅 | | | 菜油 | 沪金 | 郑棉 | | 玉米淀粉 | | 沥青 | 铁矿石 | | | 塑料 | 沪铝 | 菜粕 | | | 豆油 | 豆一 | 豆粕 | | | 甲醇 | 橡胶 | 沪银 | | | PVC | 焦炭 | 鸡蛋 | | | | 沪锡 | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | 玻璃 | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | 沪锌 | | | | | 沪铜 | | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | 备注： | | PTA | | 1.趋势判断观点主要基于各品种的量价等技术指标因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. In the macro - financial sector, the short - term trend of stock index futures is strong, and the short - term strategy of treasury bond futures can consider a steepening strategy. In the black sector, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the agricultural products sector, most varieties face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand relationship of crude oil is changing, and other products follow different trends based on their own fundamentals [9][10][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association solicits opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has once again reached 3600 points, and margin trading balances have returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time since July 2015 [6]. - US President Trump signs executive orders to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [6]. - Express delivery prices in Guangdong have increased, with the base price per ticket rising by 0.4 yuan [6]. - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Fed's Daly says policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and there is still much work to do to bring inflation down to 2% [7]. 2. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to continue the trend - following idea. The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with increased trading volume and margin trading balances reaching a high level. Trump's tariff plan on chips and semiconductors may have an impact. The stock index has rebounded and returned to the trend after a pull - back [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - A short - term steepening strategy can be considered. The capital market is loose, and the bond market is under pressure but not weak. Attention should be paid to whether the capital level can be maintained at 1.3 - 1.35% [10]. 3. Black Sector Overall Market - Policy continues to emphasize "anti - involution" with a looser tone. Market sentiment has been realized in previous price increases, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is seasonally weak, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong. Raw material prices are firm, and steel and ore prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel spot prices have increased slightly, but trading volume has weakened compared to the previous day. Iron ore prices in Shandong are basically stable. The price increase is due to the rise in raw material prices such as coking coal [13][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and trading should be cautious. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also downward pressure factors. The exchange has adjusted trading limits, and "anti - involution" has affected the market [16]. Ferroalloys - The price bubble of silicon - based ferroalloys has disappeared. The medium - to - long - term view is to short on rallies. Strategies such as long the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or reverse spreads of silicomanganese can be considered [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and an expected increase in factory inventory [18]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. Refinery production is accelerating, and demand is weak, so zinc prices are expected to decline [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market expects a production cut in Jiangxi. If it happens, it will be beneficial to lithium carbonate prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [21]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of large - scale manufacturers. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and downstream photovoltaic policies [22]. Polysilicon - The policy expectation has cooled down, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt games. The supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to whether policies can boost terminal demand [23]. 5. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. International and domestic demand is weak, and there are concerns about future production increases [25][26]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increases in imported processed sugar. However, low - absorption demand during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays should be noted. International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [28][29]. Eggs - The 09 contract price has reached a record low. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious about bottom - fishing. Supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and demand is currently weak [31]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples [32][33]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Supply and demand are both under pressure, but there is also bottom support. It is recommended to focus on market sentiment and policy implementation [34]. Red Dates - It is recommended to observe. The production is still uncertain, and the market is affected by various news [35]. Pigs - Short - term spot market is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy [35]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is increasing supply, but the growth space is limited. Demand is affected by trade uncertainties. The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. The market has no main logic, and factors such as sanctions and seasonal demand affect the price [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [40]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short - term. Short - term long positions can be considered after a pull - back, but be cautious about chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - Methanol follows the overall commodity trend. Supply is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is recommended to sell call options [42]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is obvious. The price is expected to decline, and a short - bias strategy is recommended [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil. The market has no main logic, and it is in a seasonal off - season with slow inventory reduction [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices are in a downward trend. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term. The price may follow crude oil [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [47]. Logs - Log prices have increased. The market is affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended. Hedging can be considered at high prices [47]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upward. Domestic demand has improved, and export factors may support the price, but the actual export situation needs further observation [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will increase next week, and the supply side may face some pressure. The spot price is stable, and the spot quotation has been raised. The fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market, but market sentiment remains, and future market competition is crucial. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview 1.1 Supply - side - The number of arriving ships decreased from 14 in July 25th, 2025 to 6 in August 1st, 2025, a decrease of 8. The arrival volume at ports dropped from 48.1 million cubic meters to 22.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 26.00 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and other types showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous month, with year - on - year decreases of 7%, 6%, etc. It is estimated that the arrival volume at ports will recover to 14 ships and 42.5 million cubic meters next week. The supply side has certain support, but due to less departure from New Zealand and rising foreign quotes, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be relatively low [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly shipment volume is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the national volume from 44.9 million cubic meters to 44.94 million cubic meters. The demand is still weak during the off - season, affected by weather and the decline in the real estate start - up rate. The apparent demand decreased by 41.0 million cubic meters. In terms of inventory, short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but due to weak downstream demand, the reduction amplitude is limited. With the recovery of arrivals next week, inventory is expected to increase under stable demand [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remain stable, but it is reported that the foreign quotes of New Zealand radiata pine in August are 1 - 2 US dollars higher than in July. The spot price is relatively stable with a slight decline during the off - season, and the future increase in foreign quotes may support the domestic spot price. The futures price has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market. The spot spread is relatively stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine [11][13]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine increased by 13 from 973 to 986, while that of spruce decreased by 9 from 1248 to 1238. The import profit of radiata pine decreased by 13 from - 48 to - 61, and the profit situation of wood products is relatively stable. Due to the recovery of foreign quotes and weak downstream and terminal demand, the profit of logs and wood products is expected to be weak [15]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, and the expected increase in arrivals this week may put pressure on the supply side. For the futures market, the spot quotation is raised, the fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet No specific content provided for analysis. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply - side - It includes aspects such as New Zealand log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.2 Demand - side - It involves the daily shipment volume of logs and the real estate situation, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.3 Log Downstream Analysis - For wood products, it includes price and profit analysis, and for downstream substitutes, it involves aluminum alloy analysis, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.4 Inventory - side - It includes inventory summaries, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. Part 4: Cost and Profit 4.1 Log Import Cost and Profit - The import cost and profit of logs are affected by factors such as foreign quotes and exchange rates, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 4.2 Log Delivery Profit - The delivery profit from Taicang to Chongqing in 2024 and 2025 is presented in a graph, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [80]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and their price seasonality is also mentioned, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [83][86]. 5.2 Radiata Pine and Spruce Spread Seasonality - The spread seasonality between radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [88]. 5.3 Radiata Pine and LG Basis - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [94]. 5.4 LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract are analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Based on fundamental analysis, the report classifies various futures products into trend空头 (downward trend), 震荡偏空 (slightly bearish with oscillations), 震荡 (sideways movement), 震荡偏多 (slightly bullish with oscillations), and 趋势多头 (upward trend). For example, liquefied petroleum gas is in the 震荡偏空 category, while CSI 500 stock index futures are in the 震荡偏多 category [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, products are categorized as 偏空 (bearish), 震荡 (sideways), and 偏多 (bullish). For instance, sugar is classified as 偏空, while lead futures are 偏多 [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments for multiple futures products based on fundamental and quantitative analyses, and offers trading strategies and market outlooks for each product. It also analyzes macro - economic information and its impact on the futures market [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to follow the short - term strong trend. A - shares showed a strong performance, and with the release of policies and market expectations, the index rebounded after a pull - back, suggesting a continuation of the trend - following approach [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Consider a steepening strategy in the short - term and short long - term bonds. The central bank's open - market operations and the performance of the stock and commodity markets affect the bond market, and there is a possibility of the bond market weakening under the pressure of stocks and commodities [13]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Ore**: The black market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. Demand may seasonally weaken, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are likely to oscillate between the cost of valley - electricity and flat - electricity [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation phase. Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. It is recommended to consider strategies such as going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or conducting reverse arbitrage between near - and far - month contracts of silicomanganese. In the long - term, a bearish approach is appropriate [17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy when prices are high and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere returns. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market needs to digest speculative inventory [18]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term. For alumina, there is room for the basis to repair, and it is advisable to go long on the basis in the short - term. In the long - term, due to supply - demand imbalances, it is recommended to short alumina at high prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Social zinc inventories are increasing, and with the recovery of smelter production and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current tight - balance fundamentals support prices, and the short - term decline is limited. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contradiction lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream policies and supply - side policies [24]. - **Polysilicon**: The policy expectation has cooled, and the price may return to the fundamentals and warehouse - receipt game. The supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether policies can stimulate terminal demand [25][26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to oscillate and rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but supply concerns support prices. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand factors [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar supply and the decline in import costs. However, the expected demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may limit the decline [28][29]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract price of eggs has reached a historical low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the upside is limited. It is advisable to wait and see, and be cautious when considering bottom - fishing [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples and the price of old - season apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The supply and demand sides are under pressure, but there is also support from policies. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy implementation [35]. - **Red Dates**: It is advisable to wait and see. The production is still in dispute, and the market is oscillating [36]. - **Pigs**: It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term [36][37]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about oil demand due to the downward revision of US economic data. OPEC+ is increasing supply, and the long - term trend is towards a supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to US secondary sanctions on Russia and the summer demand [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: There is no clear main - line logic for oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate between 70 and 65 dollars, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil prices [39]. - **Plastic**: The market sentiment is unstable, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak [41]. - **Rubber**: In the short - term, rubber prices may oscillate slightly stronger. It is advisable to short - long after a pull - back and be cautious when chasing high prices [42]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices follow the overall commodity trend and are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand are weak, and the port inventory is increasing [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply in Shandong is at a high level, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [44]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no clear main - line logic, and the asphalt market is in a seasonal transition period with slow inventory reduction [45][46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is still weak. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately, but not to increase short positions aggressively. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices, and the supply and demand are not favorable [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the long - term. The price is likely to fall [48]. - **Pulp**: The main - contract sentiment is cooling, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [49]. - **Logs**: The spot price has increased, and the basis is being chased. There is some hedging space, and it is advisable to observe and consider hedging at high prices [50]. - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are judged to have trends such as trend short, oscillating short - bias, oscillating, oscillating long - bias, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, varieties are divided into short - bias, oscillating, and long - bias [3][4][8]. - A series of macro - economic events have occurred, including central bank monetary policy adjustments, corporate incentive stock grants, new energy vehicle sales data, and international trade and tariff policies [11][12]. - Different investment strategies are proposed for various futures varieties, such as short - term strong - trend observation for stock index futures, a steepening strategy for bond futures, and different trading suggestions for black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical futures [15][16][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank's July data shows that SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 100 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase a net injection of 188 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 200 billion yuan. There was no open - market treasury bond trading in July [11]. - The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to clarify customer due - diligence requirements for financial institutions. For remittances abroad of over 5,000 yuan or the equivalent in foreign currency, the remitter's identity must be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling over 10,000 yuan of non - registered prepaid cards at one time [11]. - Tesla's board approved a grant of 96 million incentive shares to CEO Elon Musk, subject to his continued leadership for the next two years and a five - year holding period [11]. - In July, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.18 million, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 4% month - on - month decrease. Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of mid - July, 22 banks in Hong Kong were approved to sell digital asset - related products, 13 to sell tokenized securities, and five to provide digital asset custody services [12]. - Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's resale of Russian oil [12]. - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a trade statement [12]. - Since April, the issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, reaching a new high in July with 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to observe the short - term strong trend and pay attention to the performance at the upper resistance level. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday, with pharmaceutical and military stocks rising. The market turnover was 1.52 trillion yuan. There are discussions about a possible US - China agreement and Trump's potential visit to China in early September. After the US non - farm payroll data was revised down, the market is betting on a Fed rate cut in September. The stock index has rebounded after a five - week rise and a pull - back to the 20 - day line [15]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider a steepening strategy in the short term due to the loose money supply. After the cross - month period, the central bank's OMO maintained a large - scale net injection, and the money supply was loose. The long - term bond market was affected by the stock index's performance and the uncertainty of interest tax, resulting in large intraday fluctuations in bond futures [16]. Black Futures Steel and Ore - The "anti - involution" statement has been relaxed. The black market is expected to be in a high - level shock. Fundamentally, demand may weaken seasonally, but the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore prices are oscillating strongly. The market adjustment is due to the change in the "anti - involution" statement in the Politburo meeting [19][20]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level shock stage. The adjustment of trading limits by the exchange and the change in the "anti - involution" statement have affected the market. Fundamentally, supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported coal supply [21]. Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. The price is in a reasonable range, and chasing short positions may be risky. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended [22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended, and for glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and needs to digest speculative inventory [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation to short on rallies. Alumina prices may see a short - term basis repair but are expected to be shorted on rallies in the long term due to high supply and inventory [26]. Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. With rising processing fees and increasing supply, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices will oscillate downward [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The current tight - balance fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, there is pressure from industrial hedging [29]. Polysilicon - Policy expectations have cooled, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt game contradictions. The supply - demand situation is expected to turn to inventory accumulation [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream production motivation, inventory levels, and international trade policies [33]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increased supply, but the decline may be limited by festival demand. International sugar markets are expected to have a supply surplus [35][36]. Eggs - The price of the 09 contract has hit a record low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is high, and it is recommended to wait and see, with caution when going long [38]. Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position positive - spread strategy. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [39]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures, but there is also bottom support. It is advisable to focus on short - term trading [40][41]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather in the production area [42]. Pigs - It is recommended to short the near - month contract and consider a 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak in the short term [43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation. The price is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US sanctions, and peak - season demand. There may be a short - term rebound [45]. Fuel Oil - There is no main - line logic for oil prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US employment data, and sanctions against Russia [46][47]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market sentiment is turning bearish. It is recommended to be slightly short - biased and beware of callback risks [48]. Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment and are gradually returning to fundamentals. It is recommended to close short positions and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. A slightly short - biased strategy or selling call options can be considered [50]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [51]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no main - line logic, and asphalt is in a seasonal off - peak season, with slow inventory reduction [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to short on rallies. The cost support is weak, and the demand is low. The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester chain varies [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. The price is likely to fall [54]. Pulp - The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the improvement of spot transactions [54][55]. Logs - The spot price has increased, and the market is trading to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices [56]. Urea - The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has boosted the market. The domestic market sentiment has improved, and a shock strategy is recommended [56].