1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trends of various futures are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, the trends are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [4]. - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. For treasury bond futures, consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. For black commodities, prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, prices are expected to show different trends such as high - level oscillation and weakening. For agricultural products, prices are affected by supply and demand and other factors, showing different trends. For energy and chemical products, most are expected to be in a weak or oscillating state [6][7][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The government has introduced a series of policies, such as the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, the deployment of key tasks for the reform and development of the capital market by the CSRC, and the adjustment of the maximum value of the预定 interest rate of new insurance products by insurance companies. Economic data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have rebounded, and the US durable goods orders have declined significantly [8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. The A - share market has shown a pattern of sector rotation. The CSRC has deployed key tasks, and insurance companies are adjusting the预定 interest rate. The profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the movement of stop - profit funds [6][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. The bond market has shown short - term fluctuations, and inflation and the capital situation are the focus. Attention should be paid to the trends of the stock index and commodities [8][9]. Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: Affected by policies, the expectation of increasing inflation through the supply side is rising. The off - season is not weak, and the peak season is not strong. The demand may weaken marginally, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore production is expected to remain high. Prices may enter a short - term oscillating adjustment phase [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply may be reduced due to production inspections, and the demand is stable. However, there is a possibility of a decline in iron water production, and imported coal may put pressure on prices. The adjustment of trading limits has affected prices [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market may open lower and fluctuate greatly on the 28th. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the profit margins have expanded. It is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider taking profits on rallies. The supply of soda ash has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The price of glass has risen, but the demand is mainly speculative [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term range trading is recommended. The prices of both have been affected by regulatory measures and market sentiment [18]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The processing fee is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and prices will oscillate and weaken [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will oscillate strongly before the supply - side disruption expectation is falsified. If the production reduction does not occur for a long time, prices may fall [20]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon has a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the market may fluctuate greatly [21]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating and rebounding under pressure. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies in the long - term. The market is affected by macro and supply - demand factors, and the consumption outlook is still worrying [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decline in import costs. The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the impact of relevant policies [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [33]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended. The market is affected by policies, substitute products, and supply and demand [34][35]. - **Jujubes**: It is recommended to lightly short. The market is in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather [36]. - **Pigs**: Short - term short - selling is recommended for near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to risk control. Arbitrage strategies can be considered [36]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and trade negotiations [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are weaker than crude oil, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation, the Middle East power generation demand, and the shipping market [41]. - **Plastics**: The market sentiment may lead to a slight strength in polyolefins in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [41][42]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as raw material supply and market sentiment [43]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider short - selling options. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by sentiment [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2509 contract is expected to be under pressure in the context of the rising price of liquid chlorine and the weakening of commodity futures [44]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamentals are stable, and prices follow crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation and the seasonal demand [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is not recommended to go long, and short - selling can be considered later. The supply may decrease, but the demand is weak [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the long - term. Prices are likely to fall [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate and rise, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot trading [50]. - **Logs**: The spot price has rebounded, and the basis repair logic still exists. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [51]. - **Urea**: Futures are expected to open significantly lower and then oscillate. It is advisable to consider going long after a significant decline [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to the unexpected resumption of polysilicon production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon has marginally improved, but the industrial hedging pressure is strong after the market rebound. It is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the supply - side policies [54]. - **Polysilicon**: The policy expectation is gradually taking shape, which is contrary to the fundamental oversupply contradiction. The market is in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and cautious operation is required [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Review (7.21 - 7.25)**: The prices of 553, 99 and 421 industrial silicon showed different trends. The prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and petroleum coke were relatively stable. The production in various regions increased to varying degrees, and the inventory and demand also changed [8][10]. - **Polysilicon Weekly Review (7.21 - 7.25)**: The price of N - type polysilicon material increased slightly, the production increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream demand was still under pressure [10]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - **Price/Spread/Cost/Profit**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon fluctuated, and the cost and profit of different regions also varied. For example, the cost of Yunnan, Sichuan and Xinjiang was different, and the profit was mostly negative [8][10]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: The production in various regions such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia showed different trends of increase or decrease. The production capacity utilization rate also changed accordingly [8][10]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Difference**: The total inventory decreased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the factory inventory increased. The supply - demand difference also changed with the change of supply and demand [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Demand - **Polysilicon Demand**: The demand for polysilicon was affected by factors such as the production of silicon wafers and the price of polysilicon. The production of polysilicon increased, and the demand was expected to increase [10][20]. - **Organic Silicon Demand**: The price of organic silicon DMC increased, the production was affected by the shutdown of a factory, and the demand was relatively stable [10]. - **Other Demands**: The demand for aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the export increased significantly, but the overseas orders were not many [10]. 3.4 Balance Sheets - **Industrial Silicon Supply Balance Sheet**: Under the neutral assumption, the production of industrial silicon in different months and regions was estimated, and the production capacity utilization rate and other data were provided [12]. - **Industrial Silicon Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand for industrial silicon in different months and fields was estimated, including organic silicon, polysilicon, aluminum alloy and export, and the supply - demand difference and inventory were calculated [20]. - **Polysilicon Supply Balance Sheet**: The supply of polysilicon in different months was estimated, including production, import and export, and the production capacity utilization rate was also provided [27]. - **Polysilicon Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand for polysilicon was estimated from aspects such as silicon wafer production and consumption coefficient, and the supply - demand difference and inventory were calculated [35]. 3.5 Cost Curve - The cost curves of polysilicon under different scenarios (considering and not considering waste heat power generation) were provided, showing the cost echelons of different enterprises [51][52]. 3.6 Trading Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: The main trading logic is affected by factors such as polysilicon production resumption, industrial hedging pressure and supply - side policies [54]. - **Polysilicon**: The main trading logic is affected by policy expectations, the contradiction between supply and demand, and the actual implementation of measures [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, commodities generally rose. Due to the obstruction of rubber raw material supply and the overall undervaluation of the market, rubber prices followed the upward trend. However, the sustainability of this upward movement needs further attention, and it is advisable to be cautious when chasing high prices. The firm prices of upstream raw materials provide some support to the cost side, but this support may gradually weaken as the supply of raw materials increases. On the demand side, tire factories' short - term production operations may be maintained due to the recovery of profits, but there is still an expectation of a future decline. Overall, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory clearance speed from July to August, policy impacts, raw material supply, and inventory changes. The RU09 contract is currently valued neutrally, with an upward - shifted oscillation range. The NR09 contract also shows similar characteristics. In terms of trading strategies, when the price of RU - NR spreads is concerned, it is expected to strengthen in the short term but with limited space, and attention should be paid to future warehouse receipts and inventory conditions. For options, a bear spread strategy can be considered to reduce the cost of premiums, but both the returns and risks are limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Global Production**: In May 2025, Thailand's production was 272,200 tons, with a significant increase compared to the previous period. Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, with a slight increase. Vietnam's production was 85,500 tons, and China's production was 97,000 tons, showing a significant increase of 11.53% year - on - year. Malaysia's production was 20,000 tons. Overall, the global natural rubber production is in line with expectations, and the weather in the producing areas is better than last year, with normal tapping operations. Attention should be paid to weather conditions and raw material output [5]. - **Main - producing Countries' Exports**: From January to June 2025, the exports of Thailand, Indonesia, and Cote d'Ivoire increased significantly, mainly due to the increased import enthusiasm in China. Vietnam's exports decreased month - on - month in May, which is related to seasonal factors and increased domestic demand. Malaysia's exports decreased, mainly due to a decline in imported raw materials [5]. - **Domestic Production and Imports**: The production of whole - milk rubber in 2025 is expected to increase significantly, but recent rainfall has affected the output, and the increase may fall short of expectations. In June 2025, the total imports of natural rubber were 463,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease. The imports of different rubber types showed different trends, such as an increase in the year - on - year imports of smoked sheets due to the duty - free policy in Myanmar, and an unexpected increase in the imports of standard rubber [6]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is higher than the same period last year. Currently, there is a slight reduction in inventory, mainly in the light - colored rubber, while the dark - colored rubber has started to show inventory changes. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rapid inventory clearance from late July to August [6]. - **Demand**: In the tire industry, the production of whole - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends in June 2025. The sales of automobiles and commercial vehicles decreased month - on - month, which is related to seasonal factors and the cancellation of some subsidies in the second half of the year. The logistics index showed a stable or increasing trend month - on - month [7]. - **Valuation and Profits**: The prices of raw materials such as Yunnan and Hainan glue are expected to remain flat or decline. The processing profits of some rubber types in China and Thailand show different trends, such as the strengthening of the processing profits of Yunnan and Hainan, and the flat or declining profits of Thai latex [7]. 3.2 Balance Sheet Analysis - **Domestic Natural Rubber Total Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply, demand, and inventory of domestic natural rubber showed different trends. In 2025, the cumulative supply increased year - on - year, and the inventory and consumption ratios also changed. Attention should be paid to the import volume from July, which is expected to decline, and the inventory changes from July to August [13]. - **Domestic Light - colored Rubber Balance Sheet**: Light - colored rubber has been continuously reducing inventory. Attention should be paid to the import of 3L rubber this year, the implementation of the purchase and storage policy, the impact of latex, and the supply of domestic raw materials. The cost side has obvious support [15]. - **Dark - colored Rubber Balance Sheet**: From December 2024 to April 2025, there was obvious inventory accumulation, but the structural differences were large. From May to June, inventory clearance started but was not continuous. In July, inventory continued to accumulate, especially for mixed rubber, which exceeded market expectations. It is expected that the arrivals after July will decrease year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the demand in July and the tariff policy in August [16]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **China's Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: The report provides seasonal charts of raw material prices and spreads in China, including the price differences between Yunnan glue and rubber blocks, and the price differences between Hainan whole - milk and latex raw materials, which can help analyze the cost structure [20][23]. - **China's Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in China are presented, such as the delivery profits of Yunnan whole - milk RU01 contracts and Hainan 01 contracts, which can help understand the profit situation of the rubber processing industry [26]. - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: Seasonal charts of Thailand's raw material prices and spreads are provided, including the price differences between Thai latex and cup rubber, and the prices of raw materials such as Thai raw rubber sheets, which can help analyze the cost situation in Thailand [29]. - **Thailand's Raw Material Spreads and Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of Thailand's raw material spreads and rubber processing profits are presented, such as the delivery profits of Indian - standard NR main contracts and the processing profits of Thai standard rubber, which can help understand the profit situation in Thailand [32]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data Presentation - **Main - producing Areas' Weather and Rainfall**: The report provides data on the weather and rainfall in main - producing areas, including the SOI and ONI index changes, and the cumulative precipitation in Hainan, Yunnan, and Thailand, which can help analyze the impact of weather on rubber production [36][38]. - **Main - producing Countries' Exports**: The report provides data on the exports of main - producing countries, including the cumulative exports and year - on - year changes of Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cote d'Ivoire, which can help analyze the supply situation in the international market [42][44]. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Data on the domestic supply, demand, and inventory of natural rubber are provided, including the cumulative supply and demand and year - on - year changes, and the total inventory, which can help analyze the domestic market situation [47]. - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: Data on China's natural rubber imports are provided, including the cumulative imports and year - on - year changes, and the imports by rubber type, which can help analyze the import situation of different rubber types [50][53]. - **Light - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of light - colored rubber are provided, including the cumulative consumption and supply and year - on - year changes, and the monthly supply of whole - milk and 3L rubber, which can help analyze the light - colored rubber market [56][58]. - **Dark - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of dark - colored rubber are provided, including the cumulative consumption and import and year - on - year changes, and the inventory of different types of dark - colored rubber, which can help analyze the dark - colored rubber market [65][68]. - **Tire Industry**: Data on the tire industry are provided, including the production, inventory, and demand of whole - steel and semi - steel tires, and the sales of automobiles and commercial vehicles, which can help analyze the demand situation of the tire industry [70][79]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Basis Analysis - **Rubber Price Charts**: Continuous price charts of different rubber types are provided, including whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, 3L rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, which can help analyze the price trends of different rubber types [88]. - **Spot Price Seasonality**: Seasonal charts of spot prices for different rubber types are provided, including whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard two - grade rubber, and Thai standard rubber, which can help analyze the seasonal price characteristics of different rubber types [90]. - **Price Spread Seasonality**: Seasonal charts of price spreads between different rubber types are provided, including the spreads between whole - milk and smoked sheets, 3L rubber, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, which can help analyze the price spread relationships between different rubber types [92][94]. - **Basis Analysis**: Basis analysis between whole - milk and RU contracts, and between Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and NR contracts is provided, which can help analyze the basis relationships between different contracts [96][99]. - **Contract Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts are provided, including spreads between RU contracts and between RU and NR contracts, which can help analyze the spread relationships between different contracts [102][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper pulp market is currently in a state of weak reality versus bullish sentiment on the futures market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate upwards due to sentiment, but the upward space is limited. Given the current lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals, the market may correct after the release of the bullish sentiment. It is recommended to observe whether the de - stocking at ports continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 20.50 million tons in the week of July 25, 2025, a decrease of 0.10 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.26%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons from the previous week. Weak downstream demand and low purchasing sentiment are expected to keep domestic pulp prices under pressure next week [7][8]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China's total pulp imports were 3.031 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative imports for the year were 18.578 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The imports of softwood pulp were 678 million tons, a decrease of 44 million tons from the previous month, a decline of 1.92%. The imports of broad - leaf pulp were 1.435 billion tons, an increase of 142 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.00%. Affected by overseas shipping and seasonal factors, the arrivals in July and August are expected to be stable, but the arrival of softwood pulp is still expected to be weak [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Downstream Production**: The downstream production of pulp remained stable this week. The production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard showed little change. The new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and oscillating inventory [9]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is in the process of de - stocking, and it is necessary to observe whether this trend continues. Warehouse receipt inventory is stable with a tendency to de - stock. Low prices have led to insufficient registration of new warehouse receipts, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream inventory is in a state of oscillating accumulation during the off - season, but production and sales are basically balanced [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The external quotation of pulp is expected to decline. Spot prices are rising in quotation but weak in actual transactions. The futures price is oscillating, with a contradiction between positive policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the policy orientation may push up the bottom gradually. The prices of finished paper products are gradually decreasing as they enter the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The spread between softwood and broad - leaf pulp is expected to narrow but with limited amplitude. Affected by policy sentiment and the expectation of the peak season, the spread between the September and January contracts has widened. After the futures price rose this week, the spot price struggled to rise, causing the basis to weaken [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Given the limited upward and downward space, holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, consumption, demand, and inventory. The cumulative supply and demand of pulp show different growth rates in different periods, and the inventory situation also changes accordingly [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report presents the import volume and cumulative import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as the import volume and cumulative import volume of wood chips (softwood chips, broad - leaf wood chips). The import volume of different types of pulp shows different trends in different years and months [40][46][80]. - **Production Capacity and Planned Projects**: There are many planned and under - construction projects for finished paper products in the second half of the year. For example, there are 1.7 billion tons of planned white cardboard projects in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the monthly output of white cardboard will increase gradually, with an average monthly output of over 1.4 billion tons and an average capacity utilization rate of over 80% [101]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - **Finished Paper Products**: The report analyzes the supply (production, import), demand (export, apparent demand) of different types of finished paper products (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), and presents relevant data from 2022 to 2025 [92][103][119]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory, Warehouse Receipts, and Port Inventory**: The report shows the changes in total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [145]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report presents the weekly inventory changes of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Gaolan Port, Changshu Port) from 2022 to 2025 [149]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of pulp shows different trends, and the spot quotation is rising, leading to a rebound in immediate import profit [14][157]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The cost of domestic pulp is relatively stable, and the profit is showing a downward trend. Domestic pulp has raised its quotation under the anti - involution policy, and the market acceptance is acceptable at relatively low prices [14][160]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp External Quotation**: The external quotation of different types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) shows different trends in different years and months [166]. - **Price and Spread Seasonality**: The report presents the seasonal price changes of different types of pulp and the seasonal spread changes between different types of pulp [171][176]. - **Basis**: The report analyzes the basis between different types of pulp and the futures contract, and the basis has shown different trends in different periods [178][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, showing a weaker trend compared to crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the divergence in global supply will decrease in the future. [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is approaching, but the blending market has been operating at a high capacity utilization rate. If expectations are not met, a negative feedback loop may quickly form. Additionally, summer is a traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little possibility of unexpected changes. [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices are likely to fluctuate following crude oil. In the long - and medium - term, civilian demand is entering an off - season, and chemical profit margins are difficult to expand further. Therefore, LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of the third round of China - US negotiations. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - The domestic LPG market showed a divergent trend this period. Civil gas prices rose slightly, while the price of ether - after carbon four declined. For civil gas, refinery supply was generally under no pressure, and the number of incoming vessels at import terminals decreased. Also, civil gas prices were generally low, showing a slight upward trend during the week. However, prices in the East China region declined due to the large volume and low price of local industrial gas. [5] - The expected average price of propane CP was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.66%. The expected average price of butane CP was 507 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 21 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.98%. The average price of propane CFR in South China was 543 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 23 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.06%. The average price of butane CFR in South China was 520 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 16 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 2.99%. [5] - Recommended futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices. [7] PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Import**: The report presents historical data on LPG import volume, including weekly arrival volume in China, monthly import volume from different countries (such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and import trade profit margins in the South China region. [13][16] - **LPG Freight**: It shows historical freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East. [19] - **LPG Inventory**: The report includes data on port inventory in China, refinery capacity utilization ratios in China, and factory - level inventory in China, as well as the production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China. [21][25] - **Industrial Indicators**: It presents data on the operating rates and production profit margins of PDH plants, MTBE plants, and alkylation oil plants in China. [30][32][34] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: It shows the CP far - month and current - month prices, including the predicted prices of propane and butane, CP contract prices, and the price trends of CP crude oil. [39] - **Domestic Prices**: It includes the ex - factory prices of civil LPG in different refineries (such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao), the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride. [41][45][46][47][49] PART 04: Other LPG Data - It shows the historical data of the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses. [53][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period of Xinjiang red dates. The temperature in the production area is suitable for fruit setting, and there is no concentrated fruit - dropping. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. In the sales area, the arrival volume has increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, and spot market transactions have improved. [4] - Bullish factors include partial production reduction in some surveyed production areas and potentially poor quality of new - season red dates. Bearish factors are high inventory, sufficient market supply, the consumption off - season from July to August, and a likely normal to slightly small - yield year according to the survey results. [4] - Recommended trading strategies are to short at high prices for single - side trading, go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading, with no recommendations for volatility and options trading. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively. [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has increased compared to last week, prices have fluctuated slightly, and high - quality goods have stronger prices. The reference prices for different grades are: super - special grade 10.50 - 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade 9.50 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade 8.60 - 9.00 yuan/kg, second - grade 7.50 - 7.80 yuan/kg, and third - grade 6.10 - 6.30 yuan/kg. [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 1.11 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the price difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.0 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase from the same period last year. [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Area) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg, the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 8.60 - 8.90 yuan/kg, the freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 380 - 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 1.92 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The futures price of red dates has weakened, the spot price has been stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 545 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product. [22] Contract Spread - The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts has narrowed, with a discount of 225 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 contracts have a premium of 1235 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 contracts are oscillating, with a discount of 1010 yuan/ton. There is a potential positive - spread arbitrage opportunity for the 9 - 1 contracts. [25] Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of July 25, the number of registered warehouse receipts for red dates is 8813, the number of valid forecasts is 1455, totaling 10268, equivalent to 51340 tons of spot goods. [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from July 18 - 24, 2025), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a 1.4% increase from last week. It is expected that next week's capacity utilization rate will remain around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - The alumina production in China this week was 1.831 million tons, showing an increase compared to last week's 1.792 million tons. The procurement price of liquid caustic soda by large - scale alumina factories in Shandong remained stable at 770 yuan/ton, with the equivalent 100% caustic soda price at 2,406 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of viscose staple fiber in the current cycle (from July 18 - 24, 2025) was 85,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week. The physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories decreased by 3,200 tons compared to the previous period but increased by 79,900 tons year - on - year [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 58.9%, remaining the same as the previous period. The operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry was weak and volatile, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the next period [5]. - In May, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 255,900 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 75,000 tons [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.38% increase from the previous period and a 4.29% increase year - on - year [5]. - Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,594 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 350 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 170 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [5]. - Last week, the spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda was relatively weaker than that of 32% liquid caustic soda. The price of liquid chlorine fluctuated sharply. The futures price of caustic soda first rose significantly and then fell back on Friday night [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises increased in most regions this week, with some regions having new maintenance or production reduction. Next week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - **Demand**: Alumina production increased, viscose staple fiber production increased slightly, the printing and dyeing industry was weak, and the export volume in May was reported. The demand from downstream industries was generally weak [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both compared to the previous period and year - on - year, and the capacity - to - inventory ratio also increased in most regions [5]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong last week was at a historically low level [5]. - **Price**: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly last week, and the futures price first rose significantly and then fell back [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong's 32% and 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, as well as the prices of raw salt and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, operating rate, and device loss volume, as well as the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the historical data of the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Lists the current and future maintenance plans of chlor - alkali devices in various regions [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Displays the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda procurement price, and inventory data of the alumina industry [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: Presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [35][38]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper Industry**: Shows the production of paper pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of upstream factories' paper products, and the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard [41]. - **Export**: Displays the monthly and cumulative export volume data of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in China [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices weakened at the end of the week. With the approaching deadline of the trade - war, the market remains worried. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September, with relatively high certainty on the supply side. The peak - season on the demand side is approaching, and major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak - season, but the peak - season demand cannot be disproven at present. It is necessary to continue closely monitoring the market inventory. If inventory accumulates continuously, the market's peak - season demand expectation will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil lacks driving forces and is likely to show weak fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels. As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 971,000 barrels to 20.525 million barrels. The EIA report showed that US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, while domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high and imports hit a three - month high, with a sharp decrease in the proportion of Asian sources and a sharp drop in Chinese demand. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change the existing production - increase plan at the Monday meeting. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 25 was 415, down from the previous value of 422 [11][12]. - **Macroeconomics**: The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000. The US S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value in July was 55.2, and the Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5. The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in June was 627,000. The UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.9% [15][17]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Iran will hold a tripartite meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. Russian President Putin will visit China in September to attend the 80th anniversary commemorative activities of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War. The next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [19][22]. - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and the WTI crude oil price forecast to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [22]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - From July 27 to July 30, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. On July 30, data on the US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25 will be released. On July 30, data on the US ADP employment in July will be released. On July 31, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June will be announced. On August 1, data on the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July will be released. On August 2, data on the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending August 1 will be released [23]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude Oil Basic Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract are presented for different dates from 2024 to 2025, along with their weekly, monthly, and annual changes and change rates [32]. - **Crude Oil Forward Prices**: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are shown for different dates in 2025 [55]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils, including different contract combinations, are presented, along with the prices of SC contracts [58][60]. - **Crude Oil盘面 Spreads**: The spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, Brent main contract and SC main contract, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) are shown [66][69]. - **Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums and discounts of Iranian, Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti oil grades to Asia, as well as the premiums and discounts of some oil grades in Shandong refineries, are presented [72][86]. - **US Dollar Index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices is shown [88]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2022 to 2026 are presented, including production, demand, supply - demand differences, and inventory data. The production forecasts of OPEC+ are also shown [96][97][99]. - **EIA Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: EIA's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2024 to 2026 are presented, including supply, demand, net inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data. The supply - demand differences for different quarters are also shown [108][110][111]. - **OPEC Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Exports**: The monthly production data of OPEC's total production, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are presented, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][117][119].