1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dot - plot of the Fed's recent FOMC meeting shows significant divergence. Excluding the view of the new governor Milan, the rest expect one more rate cut this year. However, given the current weak employment and stable inflation in the US, there is still a high probability of two more rate cuts this year. Copper prices have corrected due to the short - term exhaustion of positive factors, but the downside is limited. In the future, copper prices will remain strong under the expectation of loose liquidity. After the correction, downstream demand has improved, supporting copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, economic resilience and the pace of rate cuts will continue to drive copper prices upwards. In the short - term, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. The strategy for unilateral trading is high - level oscillation, and for options, it is to sell out - of - the - money put options. Variables include worse - than - expected US economic performance, changes in rate - cut expectations, and weakening demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: - The spot TC of copper concentrate increased from - 41.3 to - 40.8 dollars/ton, a 1.21% increase. The supply of ore remains tight as the Grasberg copper mine is still shut down, and the spot market trading is inactive [7]. - The refined - scrap spread rose from 1734 to 1917 yuan/ton, a 10.55% increase. After the Fed's rate cut and Powell's unexpectedly hawkish remarks, the market's optimistic sentiment cooled, copper prices corrected at high levels, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [7]. - The southern copper anode processing fee remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the continuous losses of recycled copper rod enterprises led some to switch to anode plate production, supporting the processing fee [7]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased from 68% to 71%, a 4.74% increase. The correction of copper prices at high levels increased downstream purchasing willingness, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day, leading to the rise in the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased from 23% to 23.7%, a 2.91% increase. After the policy discussion subsided, most enterprises in Jiangxi and Anhui were still waiting for notices. However, due to the pressure of production targets, some recycled copper rod enterprises resumed production, driving up the operating rate [7]. - The operating rate of wire and cable decreased from 68% to 66%, a 2.63% decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream demand, but the correction of copper prices at the end of the week brought in scattered orders, and it is expected that the operating rate will pick up next week [7]. - **Inventory**: - The available days of copper concentrate port inventory increased from 6.0 to 6.2 days, a 4.59% increase [7]. - The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased from 15.42 to 14.45 million tons, a 6.29% decrease. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises improved demand and led to a slight reduction in social inventory [7]. - The bonded - area inventory increased from 7.27 to 7.68 million tons, a 5.64% increase. The sharp rise in copper prices at the beginning of the week closed the import parity, and weak downstream consumption led to a slowdown in the inflow and outflow of bonded - area inventory. Additionally, some domestic inventory was transferred to BC copper warehouse receipts during the BC copper 2509 contract delivery period [7]. - The total inventory of social and bonded areas decreased from 22.69 to 22.13 million tons, a 2.47% decrease [7]. - The SHFE copper inventory increased from 28.00 to 124.42 million tons, a 344.36% increase [7]. - The LME copper inventory decreased from 15.40 to 14.77 million tons, a 4.09% decrease [7]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased from 310487 to 316774 short tons, a 2.02% increase [7]. - The global total inventory increased from 62.59 to 62.83 million tons, a 0.38% increase [7]. - **Profit**: - The spot comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 4932 to - 4404 yuan/ton, a 10.71% increase. Although the TC remains low, the high sulfuric acid price has compensated for the profit, reducing the loss [7]. - The long - term contract comprehensive smelting profit increased from - 1570 to - 1072 yuan/ton, a 31.74% increase. With the realization of macro expectations, copper prices declined at high levels, the import window closed, and the import profit turned negative again [7]. - The import profit decreased from 2 to - 261 yuan/ton, a 11052.48% decrease [7]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit - The report presents multiple price - related data charts, including the SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, the term structure of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid (98% smelting acid), the Shanghai - London ratio, the LME 3 - month closing price, the LME (0 - 3) premium/discount, the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), the spot copper import profit, the feed - processing spot export profit, and the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper under long - term contracts [11][15][18][20]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply and Demand - **Supply**: - The report provides data on copper concentrate, including the import copper concentrate index TC, the production of Chilean and Peruvian copper concentrates, and the import volume of copper concentrate. It also shows data on recycled copper, such as the refined - scrap spread, the import profit of recycled copper, the southern copper anode processing fee, the operating rate of recycled copper rod production from scrap copper, the import volume of scrap copper, and the import volume of copper anode. In addition, data on electrolytic copper production, import volume, and total supply are presented [26][31][32]. - **Demand**: - The demand side is divided into multiple segments. For copper rods and cables, data on the operating rate of refined copper rod production, the raw material inventory of copper rod wires, the finished - product inventory ratio of copper rod wires, the operating rate of wire and cable, and the operating rate of enameled wire are provided. For power grids, data on cumulative and monthly power grid investment and power source investment are presented. For copper tubes and air - conditioners, data on the operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material inventory ratio of copper tubes, the finished - product inventory of copper tubes, the production, domestic sales, and export volume of household air - conditioners are shown. For copper strips, data on the operating rate of copper strips, the raw material inventory, and the raw material inventory ratio are presented. For the automotive sector, data on the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided. For the real - estate sector, data on the operating rate of brass rods, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities, and the cumulative and monthly housing completion area are given [33][35][44][46][52][56]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - The report presents data on various copper inventories, including the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the SHFE copper warehouse receipts, the COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, the LME electrolytic copper inventory, the global refined copper inventory, and the LME cancelled warrants and their proportion [61]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Positions - On September 16, the non - commercial net long position of CFTC showed an upward trend recently, with the non - commercial long - position ratio at 31.4%. The net long position of LME investment funds was 38583.07 lots, a weekly increase of 8097.36 lots [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectations for both monetary and fiscal policies have increased. Supported by the fundamental and capital aspects, medium - and short - term bonds may continue to strengthen [6]. - The probability of the central bank's easing is increasing, and there is a possibility of further increasing the money supply and cutting interest rates [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - **Capital Aspect**: During the week, due to tax payments, the central bank announced net reverse - repurchase injections. Capital was tight, and prices first rose and then fell. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation may lead to a 10bp interest - rate cut, and there is a possibility of a rate lower than OMO + 15BP. Considering the current liquidity situation, there is a possibility of net bond purchases this month, and the probability of the central bank's easing is increasing [8]. - **Macroeconomic Data and Logic**: In August, domestic macroeconomic data continued to decline and were below expectations. The reasons include the economic cycle's downward inertia and the complexity of anti - involution. The unemployment rate has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the pressure of stabilizing growth is increasing. Monetary policy may be the first to be strengthened, with a high probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September and a 10bp interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The released macroeconomic data was weak, increasing the probability of the central bank's interest - rate cut. The market was mainly affected by bond - buying and fiscal stimulus expectations. Bonds with maturities of less than 10 years showed strong performance, while ultra - long - term bonds were weak. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and to buy bonds on dips [8]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Capital Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - The yield of Chinese bonds fluctuated, the yield of US bonds rebounded, and the US dollar index first declined and then rebounded. US stocks continued to rise, while A - shares slightly declined. Commodities first rose and then fell and continued to fluctuate. The European container shipping line continued to weaken [10]. 3.3 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic Data**: In August, China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all declined year - on - year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. The decline in real - estate prices continued, and the decline in second - hand housing prices widened [18]. - **US Data**: In August, the US new - home construction annualized total decreased, and the retail sales and industrial output growth rates were lower than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the economic forecast maintained the judgment of a soft landing, with inflation falling more slowly and the economy remaining resilient [18][19]. 3.4 Capital Aspect Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Open - Market Operations**: During the week, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase injections. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation is expected to make liquidity management more flexible and further clarify the policy - rate status of the 7 - day reverse - repurchase [31]. - **Bond Yields**: The yields of Chinese bonds of different maturities showed different degrees of changes. The yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Chinese bonds had different weekly changes, and the term spreads also changed [40]. - **Bond Futures**: The prices and positions of bond futures contracts such as TL.CFE, T.CFE, TF.CFE, and TS.CFE changed during the week [45]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamental, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 27) - **Micro - Liquidity**: The trading volume proportion of broad - based indexes and the market trading volume, as well as the margin trading balance, showed certain trends. The trading volume of north - bound and south - bound funds also changed [92][94][97]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P28 - 46) - **Domestic Economy**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size showed signs of improvement, and the PMI data rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The construction industry was weak, and the service industry was affected by the summer season [26]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US Q2 real GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the core PCE inflation increased slightly year - on - year. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut in September reached 86.5% [26]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No detailed content provided for this part.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the offset printing paper market, including supply, demand, inventory, cost, price, and spreads. It indicates that the market is in a slow and slightly increasing trend in production, with stable demand during the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and prices are likely to fluctuate or slightly decline. The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For the market, it is recommended to hold the spot and make rigid - demand transactions, and consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [9][12][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Domestic weekly production was 20.90 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.40 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.00 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 56.70%, up 1.00% week - on - week and down 3.50% year - on - year. Monthly imports were 1.19 million tons, down 0.29 million tons month - on - month and 0.53 million tons year - on - year. Weekly apparent demand was 19.20 million tons, up 2.10 million tons week - on - week. Monthly exports were 6.25 million tons, down 0.39 million tons month - on - month and 1.66 million tons year - on - year. Domestic demand was 83.31 million tons, up 2.32 million tons month - on - month and down 1.12 million tons year - on - year. Enterprise inventory and total spot inventory were on an upward trend, and it was expected that the inventory would accumulate with the increase in production and stable demand [10]. - **Price**: Factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 showed a slight increase. It was expected that the offset printing paper prices would fluctuate or slightly decline, and the futures prices would mainly fluctuate [12]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between factory delivery and self - pick - up prices were stable, and the futures spreads and basis were expected to remain stable or slightly decline. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is a traditional peak season [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material costs were expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner due to the limited increase in finished product prices during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the industrial chain, the spot market was stable, and transactions were based on rigid demand during the off - season. It was recommended to consider light - position long or selling put options strategies based on the factory production cost line while paying attention to risk prevention [18]. 3.2 Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, supply, demand, supply - demand gap, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of offset printing paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain change trend, and the production, supply, and demand also had different degrees of year - on - year changes. The inventory generally showed an upward trend compared to 2024 [20]. 3.3 Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many paper mills had production plans. A total of 1.4 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation, and 2.25 million tons were expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production. In 2026, the planned production capacity to be put into operation was 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [22]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No detailed data or analysis content other than the overview part was provided in the given text. 3.4 Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The raw material costs of different types of pulp, such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish, were at relatively low levels, and it was expected that the cost would have limited downward space [16]. - **Profit**: The production profit was expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, with the profit of self - used pulp and low - cost production showing a downward trend [16]. 3.5 Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The spot quotations of different brands of offset printing paper remained stable compared to the previous week but decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis and Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of OP Main Contract**: The basis was expected to remain stable or slightly decline, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread analysis showed that January and March had certain seasonal characteristics [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pulp supply is expected to increase as there are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and Chenming is operating at full capacity, with the output of broad - leaf pulp expected to rise gradually. Although the overseas pulp shipment volume did not significantly shrink from June to August, the arrival volume in China decreased by about 200,000 tons in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [7][8]. - The downstream pulp demand is stable. New production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - The pulp price shows a fluctuating and weak trend. The spot price is supported, but the futures price is affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts, showing a fluctuating and weak trend. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - **Domestic Production**: The output of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp increased in the week of September 19, 2025. There are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and the output of broad - leaf pulp is expected to rise [7][8]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 24.108 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The overseas shipment volume from June to August did not significantly shrink, but the arrival volume in China decreased in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - **Demand**: The downstream production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard was stable this week. The new production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is expected to show a fluctuating and accumulating trend as the arrival volume increases and the demand remains stable. The warehouse receipt inventory is stable and shows a slight decreasing trend. The low price has led to insufficient new warehouse receipt registrations, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. The downstream inventory tends to fluctuate and accumulate [10]. 1.3 Price and Spread - **Prices**: The overseas offer prices of silver star and goldfish remained unchanged this week, while the spot prices of some pulp varieties increased slightly. The futures price shows a fluctuating and weak trend, affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. - **Spreads**: The needle - broad spread is expected to narrow, but the range is still limited. The futures spread shows a weakening trend, and the basis has strengthened this week [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The spot offer price of the industrial chain is stable. From the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract, the actual digestion of old warehouse receipts is limited, and the intention to resell is strong. At the same time, the macro and market sentiment is poor, and the 11 contract is under pressure and increasing positions. In the short term, it is recommended to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the spot transaction situation [16]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including supply (imports, domestic production), demand (pulp consumption, other demand), and inventory (warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory) data, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: - **Pulp Imports**: The report provides data on China's pulp imports from 2022 to 2025, including the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp, bleached hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and other varieties, as well as their year - on - year changes [39][44][49]. - **Pulp Imports by Country**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, Chile, Canada, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [52][64][69]. - **Import of Wood Chips**: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf wood chips from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [82][83][84]. - **Demand - side**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - **Analysis of Downstream Finished Paper**: The report provides information on the production, supply, demand, and inventory of downstream finished paper (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned production capacity and production time of new projects [93][109]. - **Inventory - side**: - **Total Pulp Inventory**: The report provides data on China's total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [156][157][158]. - **Inventory by Port**: The report provides data on the weekly inventory of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, etc.) from 2022 to 2025 [163][164][166]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the import cost and profit of pulp from 2022 to 2025 [173]. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 [176]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Overseas Offer Prices**: The report provides the seasonal price data of silver star, Russian needle, goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [181][186][187]. - **Price Spreads**: The report provides the seasonal spread data of silver star - goldfish, Russian needle - goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [189][190]. - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of silver star - main contract, Russian needle - main contract from 2022 to 2025 [192][193][196]. - **SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The report provides the seasonal chart and inter - month spread data of the SP main contract from 2022 to 2025 [200].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for various sectors and commodities: - **Macro Finance**: Consider buying index futures on dips and adopting a shock - trading strategy; for bond futures, consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long term and buying bonds on dips [12][13]. - **Black Metals**: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small short position in iron ore; expect coking coal and coke prices to fluctuate upward in the short term; for ferroalloys, take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [16][18][19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies; for zinc, expect prices to weaken; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely in the short term; for industrial silicon, test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts, and for polysilicon, trade within a wide range [23][24][25]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, sell on rallies; for sugar, cover short positions opportunistically; for eggs, sell on rallies; for apples, wait and see; for corn, wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm; for red dates, sell on rallies; for live pigs, take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [31][33][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider short - selling on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow oil price fluctuations; for plastics, expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy; for rubber, hold positions cautiously; for methanol, trade with a shock strategy; for asphalt, follow oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term; for LPG, maintain a short - selling view in the long term [42][44][47]. - **Forestry Products**: For offset printing paper, test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line; for pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot trading; for logs, test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective; for synthetic rubber, hold positions cautiously [52][53][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation, including the Fed's interest rate cut, China's service consumption policies, and the release of relevant industrial standards. It also provides investment strategies and market outlooks for different sectors and commodities based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [8][9][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, with over 90% probability of another cut in October. Employment risks have increased, and inflation is slightly high [8]. - China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption scenarios, introduce relevant policies, promote AI application, and use monetary policy tools to boost consumption. During the consumption month, over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [8]. - Alibaba's self - developed AI chip was featured on CCTV, with some parameters comparable to NVIDIA's H20 chip [9]. - New national standards for polysilicon energy consumption will be implemented, reducing effective domestic polysilicon capacity by 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held, emphasizing the control of sow capacity [9]. - From September 1 - 14, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 6%, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [10]. - Huawei released a report, predicting that AGI will be the most transformative force in the next decade, and the total computing power will increase by 100,000 times [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, with A - share trading volume increasing to 2.4 trillion yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. Bond Futures - The tax - period liquidity is tight, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve in the medium - to - long term and buy bonds on dips, expecting the central bank to restart bond purchases in September and cut interest rates by 10bp in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact on supply is limited. The peak season may not bring expected demand, and steel is expected to be slightly strong in the short term and volatile later. Hold a small short position in iron ore [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may fluctuate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to production progress and inventory levels [18]. Ferroalloys - Take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term, not chasing short positions [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, sell on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and glass supply may increase slightly [20][21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and buy on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies due to supply pressure [23]. Zinc - Overseas macro - positive expectations have cooled, and zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [24]. Lithium Carbonate - It is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with short - term price support from inventory reduction and wide - range fluctuations [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range, and test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts. Polysilicon will have a wide - range shock, with policy progress driving the price [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Sell on rallies due to supply pressure and weak demand. New cotton listing will increase supply, and downstream demand is poor [31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish, and it is recommended to cover short positions opportunistically due to abundant supply [33]. Eggs - The egg supply is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies as the peak season ends [36]. Apples - Wait and see as the new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the market is affected by multiple factors [37]. Corn - Wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm, with prices showing a regional differentiation [38]. Red Dates - Sell on rallies, with stable prices in the production area and weak sales in the sales area [39]. Live Pigs - The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [39]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and pay attention to OPEC+ and geopolitical factors [42]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow oil price fluctuations, with a complex market situation and supply - demand issues [42]. Plastics - Expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy due to supply pressure and market sentiment [44]. Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with cost support weakening and demand remaining stable [46]. Methanol - Trade with a shock strategy, as port inventory is high, but there may be supply disruptions [47]. Asphalt - Follow oil prices, with seasonal demand increasing and inventory decreasing [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term due to supply - demand pressure [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is in a supply - surplus situation, and maintain a short - selling view in the long term, with short - term price support from peak - season stocking [50][51]. Forestry Products Offset Printing Paper - Test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line, with stable fundamentals [52]. Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot trading, with stable production data [53]. Logs - Test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective, with stable downstream demand [54]. Synthetic Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with prices affected by macro factors and supply - demand [55].

Report Title - "LPG Weekly Report: Peak Season Stockpiling Arrives, LPG Strengthens Relatively" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG has shown strong recent performance, with the international market entering the peak - season stockpiling phase, and its price is relatively firm compared to crude oil [5]. - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [5]. - In the demand side, the peak season of the blending market is coming to an end, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain at a high level, so the chemical demand may weaken. However, the profit of PDH has been significantly repaired, which may support the subsequent operating rate [5]. - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. The CP price is relatively strong in the short - term due to peak - season stockpiling, but will follow the oil price in the long - term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside potential of LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [5]. Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [6] Summary by Directory PART 01: LPG Market Review - **Market Trend**: The domestic LPG market showed a volatile trend. In the civil gas market, the supply of domestic gas increased slightly, with limited negative impact on the market. In Shandong, prices declined due to the concentrated arrival of imported gas. The combustion demand was still weak, and downstream customers were cautious about high prices while digesting inventory, leading to price drops in some enterprises in Central China. In other regions, the supply - demand situation was good, and prices rose slightly. In the olefin C4 market, despite the increase in international crude oil prices, the poor terminal oil product demand led to a decline in component raw material prices. Downstream device profits continued to be in the red, and with decreased chemical demand and increased supply, the relaxed supply - demand situation pressured the market [5]. - **CP Price**: The expected average price of propane CP is $545 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%. The expected average price of butane CP is $525 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.74% [5]. PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Domestic**: Data on the operating rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profit of major refineries, and domestic LPG production volume are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [11]. - **Supply - Import**: Data on LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in South China, monthly total import volume in China, import volume from different countries, and shipping freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [14][15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Data on LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, factory - level inventory in China, and sales - to - production ratios in South China, East China, and Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [22][24] - **Demand - PDH**: Data on the operating rate of PDH plants in China, production profit margin of PDH in China, production profit margin of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and production profit margin of alkylated oil in Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: Data on CP contract prices of propane and butane, CP crude oil price trends, and spot prices of propane (frozen cargo) in South China are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [36] - **Spot**: Data on ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - **LPG Spread**: Data on the basis of the LPG main contract and the spread between the first - and second - month contracts are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [45] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the registered warehouse receipts of major LPG delivery warehouses are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market is currently in a state of weakening market sentiment and a downward - trending market. The overall market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with suggestions to sell call options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week's polyethylene production decreased, with domestic production dropping from 63.25 million tons last week to 61.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons. Next week, production may slightly increase as some devices resume production after maintenance. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with imports at 25.68 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. Apparent demand decreased significantly from 84.20 million tons last week to 80.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons. There was a slight inventory build - up this week, with total inventory rising from 101.13 million tons to 104.73 million tons, and it is expected to continue to build up slightly next week [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In terms of production, although there are many upstream maintenance devices, the current output is still relatively high, and the upstream supply of goods is relatively sufficient. In 2025, new production capacity will continue to be released, such as the production capacity of Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. [7][20]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - Raw material prices are in a weakening state. Crude oil prices fluctuated, rising from $65.50 last week to $66.37, and coal prices decreased from 690 to 681. PE costs have been fluctuating recently, with oil - made PE costs rising from 7803 to 7868, and coal - made PE costs remaining unchanged at 6669. Upstream profits are expected to weaken next week, with oil - chemical comprehensive profits dropping from - 1595 to - 1644, and weighted profits of PE by production capacity dropping from - 654 to - 697 [6]. 3.2.3 Market Conditions of Up, Middle, and Downstream - Upstream: Although there are many maintenance devices, the output is still high, and the upstream is actively selling goods. - Middle - stream: The middle - stream's sales situation has deteriorated, with fewer purchases from downstream and active sales by spot - futures arbitrageurs. - Downstream: This week's trading volume was average, with downstream mainly purchasing as needed. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, which provides some support [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The PE spot market price fluctuated weakly, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated. On Friday, the North China basis quote was around 01 - 50, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. The inter - month spread was in a state of fluctuation, and the far - month LL - PP spread is recommended to be temporarily observed. The import profit has deteriorated [49][6]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Strategy: In terms of trading strategies, a weak and volatile trend is expected in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell call options [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The polypropylene market continues to oscillate weakly due to significant supply - demand pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions There is no specific content about recent market main contradictions in the provided text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply** - **Production**: This week's production decreased slightly to 78.67 million tons with new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase to around 81 million tons [6]. - **Maintenance Loss**: This week, the maintenance loss was 19.19 million tons, an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to be 17.08 million tons and 16.08 million tons respectively [6]. - **Import and Export**: The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 6.12 million tons and 5.76 million tons respectively. In July, exports were 26.36 million tons and imports were 28.24 million tons, in line with expectations [6]. - **Demand** - **Apparent Demand**: This week, the apparent demand was 78.72 million tons, an increase of 3.59 million tons compared to last week. Next week, it is expected to be around 83 million tons according to seasonality [6]. - **Inventory** - **Total Inventory**: This week, there was a slight de - stocking, with the total inventory increasing from 83.34 million tons to 83.66 million tons. Next week, it is expected to continue to de - stock slightly [6]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory of "Two - Oil", coal - chemical, PDH, and refineries all showed a slight de - stocking trend, indicating a slight improvement in domestic apparent demand [6]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream port inventory and trader inventory also showed a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The overall basis showed an oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The East China basis decreased from - 160 to - 180, the North China basis increased from - 120 to - 100, and the South China basis increased from - 220 to - 210 [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread oscillated. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 15 to - 23, the 5 - 9 spread increased from 127 to 149, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 112 to - 126 [9]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread was relatively stable. The fiber - to - drawn spread increased from 250 to 270, the copolymer - to - drawn spread remained at 250, and the injection - to - drawn spread remained at 50 [9]. - **Disk Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread showed a strengthening trend. The PP - 3MA 01 contract increased from - 284 to - 224, the 05 contract increased from - 254 to - 219, and the 09 contract increased from 69 to 97. The LL - PP spread showed an oscillating and weakening trend [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, but the overall supply remains relatively sufficient. The upstream's main strategy is to actively sell goods [11]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream's shipment situation has slightly worsened. After the market decline, some futures - cash arbitrageurs have a chance to sell goods [11]. - **Downstream**: The downstream's replenishment willingness has weakened. After large - scale replenishment earlier, they are currently digesting inventory and have a low willingness to stock up before the festival [11]. - **Strategy** - **Cross - variety**: There are currently no suitable cross - variety strategies [11]. - **Single - side**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - **Options**: A strategy of selling call options is recommended [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak in the short - term. Despite the implementation of positive factors such as the shutdown of Rongxin Phase I methanol plant in the inland and the startup of Xingxing MTO plant at the port, the price remains weak due to high inventory. [3][85] - There is an expectation of improvement in methanol fundamentals on a month - on - month basis, but the supply pressure is still large. Whether the inventory can be effectively reduced after the startup of downstream MTO plants is a key point. [3][85] - In the long run, it may still be necessary to wait for a buying opportunity. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions, and wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [3][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. The basis quote on Friday was around 01 - 95 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for mid - October paper goods was 01 - 60 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Methanol Basis**: The basis quotes of methanol oscillated this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late October was around 01 - 60 yuan/ton. The inland basis of methanol oscillated, and the prices in the inland and northwest markets oscillated this week. [8][16][32] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol weakened in an oscillatory manner. [41] - **Near - far Month Spread**: It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the spread. [49] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded in an oscillatory manner this week. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA in the later stage. [57] 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - **Methanol Production**: Many new methanol plants were under maintenance, and the methanol operating rate declined slightly. However, many maintenance plants resumed production, and methanol production began to increase. [62][65] - **Methanol Downstream**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether oscillated, the operating rate of formaldehyde rebounded in an oscillatory manner, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest oscillated at a high level. [72] - **MTO**: The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated this week, and MTO profits continued to recover. [75] 3.4 Market Expectation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions. Wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [4][86] - **Hedging Strategy**: Wait and see. [5][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern in the pig market remains supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price lacks a basis for a significant rebound. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The slowdown in the market supply rhythm has limited impact on price improvement. Although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, September is still a stage with relatively large theoretical出栏 pressure. The near - month futures contracts should be operated with a short - selling strategy on rallies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview and Market Views - **Price Indicators**: The national average price of standard pigs this week was 13.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg and a decline of 3.35%. The average price of standard pigs in different regions showed differentiation, with the lowest in Guangxi at 12.43 yuan/kg. The price of piglets continued to decline rapidly, with the national average price falling below 300 yuan/head. The price of sows decreased slightly, and the price of white - striped pigs also declined, with a deeper decline than that of live pigs, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs narrowed [4]. - **Capacity Indicators**: The official inventory of reproductive sows in July was 40420,000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 heads. The indicators of the average number of healthy piglets per litter and the fattening survival rate remained stable. The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned monthly出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The theoretical出栏 volume from September to December is expected to increase month - by - month, indicating a relatively large supply pressure [4]. - **Demand Indicators**: The sample slaughter volume continued to increase, and the slaughter start - up rate rose, indicating sufficient market supply. The demand improvement in September was uneven, and attention should be paid to the impact of the pre - holiday stocking demand at the end of the month on the consumer market [5]. - **Cost and Profit Indicators**: The continuous decline in the spot price led to a reduction in the profits of the breeding end, especially the mode of purchasing piglets was in deep losses. The ratio of pig price to grain price was below 6 for two consecutive weeks, and there were high calls for the government to purchase and store pigs to support the price. The Ministry of Commerce's anti - dumping measures against imported pork from the EU had a relatively large impact on the import market, but it was difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - **Futures Market Indicators**: The spot price continued to decline, the near - month futures contracts followed the spot price downwards, and the valuation of the far - month contracts was re - structured [5]. 3.2 Market Price Trends - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, white - striped pigs, piglets, and sows from 2022 to 2025 through charts, showing the price fluctuations in different years and months [9]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From March to May, the supply - demand gap was the same as the previous year; from June to August, the supply - demand gap widened rapidly and was higher than the previous year [13]. 3.4 Capacity and Supply Data - **Sow Inventory**: The official inventory of reproductive sows and the sample inventory data of Steel Union showed a slight decline. The total elimination volume of reproductive sows and the elimination volume of different subjects were also presented, and the birth number, sales volume of piglets, and the sales volume of piglet feed and fattening feed were also included [16][22]. - **Litter Efficiency**: The report shows the historical data of breeding farrowing rate, average number of healthy piglets per litter, fattening survival rate, and survival rate of piglets from 2020 to 2025. The PSY of 16 listed pig - raising enterprises has been increasing year by year, which is an important reason for the continuous over - expectation of piglet supply [32][34]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory and出栏**: The inventory of commercial pigs continued to increase, and the planned出栏 volume of major institutions in September showed an upward trend. The report also presented the inventory structure of different weights,出栏 weight, and price differences between standard and fat pigs [4][36]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand - **Slaughter Situation**: The fresh - selling rate, daily slaughter volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of slaughter enterprises from 2021 to 2025 were presented. In July 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. From January to July 2025, the slaughter volume was 215.21 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 16.6% [57][58]. - **Market Supply**: The report shows the historical data of the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in Shanghai Western Suburb Market and Nanhuanqiao Market, and the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 to 2025 [59][68]. 3.6 Breeding Costs and Industrial Profits - The report presents the historical trends of profits from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising, the price of fattening feed, the ratio of pig price to grain price, and the current and expected breeding costs of different breeding modes from 2021 to 2025 [72][80]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation - **Futures Contract Trends**: The report shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 to 2026 [94]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of different futures contracts from 2023 to 2026 were presented [104]. - **Contract Spread Trends**: The spread trends between different futures contracts from 2022 to 2026 were presented [113].