晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 3 月 28 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] | | [Table_Report] | | 中泰微投研小程序 中泰期货公众号 | 1. 国家统计局最新数据显示，1-2 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现营业收入同比 增长 2.8%，增速比去年全年加快 0.7 个百分点。工业企业利润有所改善，制造业利 润改善明显，1-2 月份同比增长 4.8%。 | Marketing | 112 129 | 1004 28. | | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 豆粕 | 鸡蛋 | | 铁矿石 | 螺纹钢 | 橡胶 | | 焦炭 | 甲醇 | 塑料 | | PTA | 菜畑 | 들 드 | | PVC | 郑棉 | 玉米淀粉 | | 白糖 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 3 月 27 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | ان ان اساس | | 生 ↓ 生 イ ・ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 氧化铝 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 白糖 | 三十债 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | 十债 | | | | 上证50股指期货 | 棉纱 | 五债 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 橡胶 | 棉花 | 多晶硅 | | | | 橡胶 | 二债 | | | | | 棕櫚油 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 集运欧线 | | | | | 塑料 | 生猪 | | | | | 工业硅 | 尿素 | | | | | 红枣 | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 3 月 26 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/3/26 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 上证50股指期货 | 纯碱 | 玻璃 | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 棉纱 | 燃油 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 棉花 | 原油 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 白糖 | 螺纹钢 | | | | 标 脚 | 三十债 | 热轧卷板 | | | | 烧碱 | 二债 | 多晶硅 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 工业硅 | 五债 | | | | | ई] क् | 十债 | | | | | 塑料 | 氧化铝 | | | | ...

Economic Data Insights - In December, China's export data exceeded market expectations by approximately 3.4 percentage points, driven by significant increases in imports from the US and ASEAN[6] - The Q4 economic growth rate reached 5.4%, successfully meeting the annual target of 5%[6] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure, but the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment continued to narrow[6] Financial Market Analysis - The total social financing growth rate stabilized, ending the contraction and remaining flat compared to previous values, indicating an improvement in credit conditions[6] - The market anticipates that the People's Bank of China may delay interest rate cuts due to improving economic data, with the next observation point for potential cuts being March 2025[6] - The bond market is expected to face adjustment pressure if the central bank postpones the interest rate cut schedule, as the current negative carry structure may suppress buying interest[6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The domestic bond market is experiencing volatility, while US Treasury yields have declined, leading to increased fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate[6] - Commodity prices are generally strong, contrasting with previous trends, and the equity market is outperforming the US stock market, indicating potential pressure from the dollar on domestic equities[6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current bond market shows insufficient long positions, with a strong dollar environment likely leading to a flattening of the yield curve[7] - In the second week of January, macroeconomic data from overseas indicates a soft landing for economic growth, with ISM manufacturing and services PMIs exceeding market expectations[7] - The US economy demonstrates resilience against high-interest financial conditions, primarily due to its consumption-driven nature[7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Funding - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) have been low, resulting in a tight funding environment despite seasonal declines in liquidity[7] - Concerns about the central bank's potential actions on the RMB exchange rate may lead to a temporary tightening of the funding environment[7] - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases starting January 2025, which will be reviewed based on market supply and demand[7] Group 3: Asset Performance - Domestic bond markets are experiencing volatility, while US Treasury bonds continue to strengthen, with the RMB exchange rate showing increased fluctuations[9] - The A-share market has weakened significantly, influenced by the strong dollar's pressure on domestic equity markets[9] - The 10-year government bond yield is fluctuating around 1.6%, reflecting market expectations of a 40 basis point rate cut[7]

跨品种套利跟踪 期现收益率 致掂米源： WIND，中蔡朋贞研究所 (0.30) (0.20) (0.10) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 IRR SHIBOR 3M 10-2国债利差 4TS-T(右) 5年国债期货期现收益率(%,bp) 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 () 60 () 40 0.20 0.00 (0.20) (0.40) (0_60) r in ag n 201 a o ar a 00 a a a 1 2 2 1 a 20 n a strong the a a Prope 800 r and 国债期货IRR跟踪 IRR SHIBOR 3M 中泰期货 研究所 宏观经济与国债期货分析师 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询证书号：Z0015266 债市处于该位置后怎么看？从定价上看，债市隐含30bp降息，央行一次降息多少，20bp？从未来可交易点来看，未来宽松动作还没有落地，既然没有落地也就没有证伪降息不及预期，更 何况央行仍然在债券市场进行净买入操 ...