Report Information - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping [7][9][12] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is currently in a complex situation with a game between policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. The policy sentiment is upward, but the actual market situation is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 4800, but the policy orientation may cause the bottom to gradually shift upwards. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [12][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview - **Supply - end**: Domestic chemical mechanical pulp production increased significantly in the cycle due to the commissioning of new production capacity, and most of it is used by the supporting paper machines of major pulp mills. In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Affected by overseas shipping and domestic import seasonality, the expected arrivals in July and August are relatively stable, but the expected arrival of softwood pulp is still weak [8]. - **Demand and Inventory - end**: Downstream production is stable during the off - season, with new production capacity being put into operation, but terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and inventory tending to accumulate. Port inventory has resumed accumulation, suppressing market confidence. Warehouse receipt inventory has decreased as some paper mills are interested in purchasing cheap Russian softwood pulp, causing some warehouse receipts to be cancelled and flow to downstream factories, and some to be converted into general warehouse spot goods. New warehouse receipt registrations are insufficient, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream finished product inventory is in a state of shock and accumulation [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Domestic pulp prices have rebounded, and the market acceptance is acceptable under relatively low prices due to the anti - involution policy. The spot price of imported pulp has increased, and the immediate import profit has rebounded. As the off - season approaches, the prices of finished products have gradually decreased, and the profit has also shown signs of weakening. Currently, the domestic raw material spot price provides support, and the profit of finished products has rebounded [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The macro - level meeting has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, but the spot market is stable with weak trading volume. There is a game between the weak reality and the market sentiment, and the market is significantly affected by sentiment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate upwards, but the increase is limited. Currently, the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is necessary to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and whether the spot trading volume improves. It is recommended to hold spot and adopt strategies such as selling call options or accumulating put options to increase income when the price is high [16]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, demand, and inventory data, as well as their cumulative and year - on - year changes [18]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis**: - **Supply - end**: - **Pulp Import**: The import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) is analyzed, including monthly data, cumulative data, and year - on - year changes from 2022 to 2025 [42][47][73][80]. - **Pulp Import Seasonality and Cumulative Data by Country**: Analyzes the import seasonality and cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes of softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, the United States, Finland, Canada, Chile) [50][60]. - **Demand - end**: - **Pulp Apparent Demand**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Analysis of Pulp's Downstream Finished Paper**: Analyzes the production, import, export, and apparent demand of different types of finished paper (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned construction and commissioning of new production capacity [91][100][118]. - **Inventory - end**: Analyzes the total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory, and inventory by port, including weekly data from 2022 to 2025 [144][148]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - **Pulp Import Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit**: Not detailed in the provided content. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - **Pulp Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotations of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, etc.), including price changes and expected trends [12]. - **Seasonal Price and Spread of Different Pulp Varieties**: Analyzes the seasonal price changes of different pulp varieties (Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, Goldfish, Asia - Pacific Senbo, etc.) and the seasonal spread between them, as well as the basis between pulp varieties and futures contracts [170][175][177].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. Also, focus on the movement of stop - profit funds [14]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short bonds at high prices or use treasury bond futures to reduce duration as the capital market may not reach 1.3%, and the capital situation remains uncertain [15]. - For steel and ore, steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and volatile in the medium - term [18]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to specific policies later [20]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices and manage positions carefully [21]. - For soda ash and glass, for soda ash, consider short - selling at high prices when the market atmosphere weakens; for glass, long - position holders at low levels can continue to hold and stop profit flexibly when the atmosphere weakens [23]. - For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short - sell aluminum at high prices and take a wait - and - see approach for alumina in the short - term, and short - sell at high positions appropriately [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and polysilicon is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. - For cotton, it is recommended to hold or exit the long - near and short - far strategy carefully [30]. - For sugar, it is expected to be volatile in the short - term [33]. - For eggs, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to stop - loss, and focus on the short - 09 and long - 01 reverse spread combination in the long - term [35]. - For apples, it is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. - For corn, participate in the short - term as the price follows the spot and is slightly stronger, and pay attention to the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. - For red dates, it is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term as the spot price is uncertain and the market is in intense long - short competition [40]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [43]. - For fuel oil, its price is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [45]. - For plastics, consider holding put options or slightly short - selling as the supply - demand situation is weak despite short - term emotional rebounds [46]. - For methanol, it is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options as it is expected to be weakly volatile [47]. - For caustic soda, maintain a long - position strategy [48]. - For asphalt, it follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger [49]. - For the polyester industry chain, do not chase the long - position, and consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. - For pulp, it is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude under the 09 emotional expectation, and the long - spot holders can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. - For logs, be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. - For urea, consider buying at low prices as the export quota may increase [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automobile industry [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation between China and the US is the right path [10]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have deployed work to standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has summoned three platform companies, including Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, to regulate their promotional activities [10]. - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the macro - economic situation in the first half of 2025, with some members making suggestions on various aspects [11]. - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals [11]. - Yushu Technology has initiated IPO counseling, with CITIC Securities as the counseling institution [11]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in July reached a five - month high, while the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [11]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates [12]. - US President Trump filed a defamation lawsuit against News Corp, Dow Jones, Rupert Murdoch, and two Wall Street Journal reporters, seeking at least $10 billion in compensation [12]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent, during a visit to Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but there are still significant differences, especially regarding the 25% tariff on automobiles [12]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The market sentiment was maintained on Friday, with a slight intraday adjustment followed by a rise. The main broad - based indexes have risen for four consecutive weeks. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds as margin trading funds continue to increase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital price during the tax period was high and tight. After the tax period ended on Friday, the capital situation did not ease significantly, and the central bank's net open - market operation (OMO) investment decreased significantly. The market interprets the central bank's draft for comments as beneficial to short - term bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and short - term bond yields have declined [15]. Black Steel and Ore - Steel prices are affected by policies and supply - demand. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has weakened marginally. However, the supply is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to be volatile in the medium - term and slightly stronger in the short - term [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coal mines is recovering slowly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported by stable pig iron production. In the medium - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow as mines resume production [20]. Ferroalloys - The manganese and silicon alloy market is affected by macro - level positive news and weakening fundamentals. It is not recommended to chase long - positions, and it is advisable to short - sell at high prices with proper position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be in surplus in the long - term, and the short - term trend depends on the market atmosphere. For glass, pay attention to the linkage between the futures and spot markets and the improvement of terminal orders [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, due to the deadlock in Trump's tariff negotiations and weak demand, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices. For alumina, the short - term policy sentiment may be short - lived, and it is advisable to short - sell at high positions [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Due to supply - side disturbances, it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term as the market is sensitive to positive news [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to improved supply - demand and positive policies. Polysilicon has a strong expectation but weak reality, and it is advisable to wait and see [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by low inventory and weak consumption. Pay attention to the macro - situation, supply - demand changes, and the impact of USDA reports [30]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are affected by low domestic inventory and expected increases in imported sugar. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025 - 26 season [33]. Eggs - Eggs are in a seasonal rising period, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the price increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and focus on the long - short spread strategy [35]. Apples - In the off - season of apple consumption, early - maturing apples are priced high. It is recommended to conduct long - spread arbitrage with a light position [37]. Corn - Corn prices follow the spot and are slightly stronger. Pay attention to the substitution of wheat, the release of imported corn, and the opportunity of value restoration after the over - decline [37]. Red Dates - Red dates are in the physiological fruit - dropping period. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term. It is recommended to short - sell with a light position [39]. Live Pigs - The short - term spot price is uncertain. The supply may decrease in the second half of July, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is accelerating supply recovery, but the demand is affected by trade wars and the global economic slowdown. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus situation [43]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is weaker than that of crude oil, and its fundamentals are gradually becoming looser due to factors such as the change in the demand structure and inventory accumulation [45]. Plastics - The supply of polyolefins is under pressure, and the demand is weak. Although there may be short - term emotional rebounds, it is advisable to consider put options or short - selling [46]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to be weakly volatile as the port inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short - sell after rebounds or consider put options [47]. Caustic Soda - With the decline in the price of liquid chlorine and a relatively strong macro - market, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [48]. Asphalt - It follows the short - term trend of crude oil, which is slightly stronger. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the production is expected to decrease in August [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market sentiment is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. It is not recommended to chase long - positions. Consider short - selling after the bullish atmosphere weakens or trading the PX - PTA spread [50]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to rise slightly with limited amplitude. Pay attention to port de - stocking and spot trading. Holders of spot can adopt relevant strategies to increase income [51]. Logs - The apparent demand is good, and the spot valuation is low. Be cautious when chasing high prices, and enterprises with deliverable spot can consider short - selling hedging [51]. Urea - With the possible increase in the export quota, it is recommended to buy at low prices. The futures price is strongly affected by the overall commodity market [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market price of pigs continued to decline, with the national average price of standard pigs dropping by nearly 1 yuan/kg in the past two weeks. The market sentiment has weakened overall. Although there was a slight price increase over the weekend due to some reluctance to sell among pig farmers, the demand was insufficient [5]. - The price of piglets remained stable this week. Since the end of June, the price of piglets has been rising because current piglet purchases can still ensure pigs are ready for sale before the Spring Festival, which has increased the enthusiasm for piglet purchases [5]. - The sample slaughter volume decreased this week, and the downstream demand was weak. The losses of slaughterhouses widened, and the negative feedback from the demand side on live pig prices increased. The consumption in July - August is expected to remain sluggish, and the key factor affecting prices is still supply [6]. - The feed cost increased slightly this week, while the profit of pig farmers decreased significantly. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model has turned negative, and the losses of slaughterhouses continue [6]. - Overall, the supply in July is not expected to increase significantly. The supply in the second half of July may decrease compared to the middle of the month, which is conducive to price stabilization. However, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the negative feedback on price increases persists. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Overview and Market View 3.1.1 Price - The national average price of standard pigs this week was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from last week, and the price in Sichuan (the optimal delivery area) was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg. The average price in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg. The price of pork carcasses was 18.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg [5]. - The price of piglets was 444.76 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head, remaining relatively stable. The price of sows was 1638.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.38 yuan/head [5]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity - According to national statistics, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 4.043 million heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a decrease of 370,000 heads from the peak in November last year. The inventory of breeding sows in the Steel Union sample increased by 15,100 heads to 5.2725 million heads [5]. - The average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.41, unchanged from the previous month, and the fattening survival rate was 93.21%, also unchanged [5]. 3.1.3 Supply - The planned slaughter volume of commercial pigs this month was 13.005 million heads, an increase of 164,300 heads from last month. The average slaughter weight was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg [5]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.27 yuan/kg, a significant change from - 0.12 yuan/kg last week, indicating that the price of fat pigs was relatively strong [5]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily slaughter volume was 107,803 heads, a decrease of 1,151 heads from last week. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 26.05%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.87%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [6]. - The wholesale volume of pork in Xinfadi Market increased by 3.51%, and the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market increased by 26.11% and 7.73% respectively [6]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - The feed cost was 2.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 114.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.44 yuan/head. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model was - 71.84 yuan/head, a significant decrease from 0.17 yuan/head last week [6]. - The profit of slaughtering was - 23 yuan/head, a slight improvement from - 23.9 yuan/head last week [6]. 3.1.6 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract (LH2509) was 14,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - The price difference between contracts (7 - 9) was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton, and the price difference between contracts (9 - 11) was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Price Trend - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, pork carcasses, piglets, and sows from 2022 - 2025, helping to understand the long - term price changes in the pig market [10]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of the pig market fluctuated. The supply - demand gap was relatively stable from March - May and widened significantly from June - August [12][15]. 3.4 Production Capacity and Supply Data 3.4.1 Basic Production Capacity - Sow Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of official breeding sows and different samples of breeding sows (scale enterprises, scale + small and medium - sized enterprises, small and medium - sized farmers) from February - December [17][19][21]. 3.4.2 Basic Production Capacity - Litter Efficiency - It includes the number of piglets born in sample enterprises, the average number of healthy piglets per litter, the survival rate of piglets, and the fattening survival rate from March - December [26][27][28]. 3.4.3 Pig Inventory - Slaughter Plan and Slaughter Characteristics - The report presents the trends of the average slaughter weight, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the north - south price difference, the monthly planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises, and the monthly slaughter volume of major pig - raising enterprises [36][37][38]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand 3.5.1 Slaughter Situation - It shows the trends of the fresh - meat sales rate, daily slaughter volume, storage capacity rate, and daily operating rate of slaughtering enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [41][42]. 3.5.2 Market Demand - The report presents the trends of the wholesale volume of pork carcasses in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market, and the price difference between live pigs and pork carcasses from 2022 - 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.5.3 Competitor Price Situation - It shows the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 - 2025 [52][53]. 3.6 Pig - Raising Cost and Industry Profit - The report presents the trends of the price of pig - raising feed, the profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model, the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening, the pig - grain ratio, and the expected and current costs of different pig - raising models from 2021 - 2025 [56][57][58]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation 3.7.1 Futures Market Trend - Each Futures Contract Trend - It shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 - 2026 [72][73][74]. 3.7.2 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Basis Trend - It presents the basis trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2023 - 2026 [83][84][85]. 3.7.3 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Price Difference Trend - It shows the price difference trends between different futures contracts (01 - 03, 03 - 05, 05 - 07, 07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly increased, with expected further growth next week due to the resumption of many maintenance - shut devices. May's export data exceeded expectations, and this month's export volume is expected to remain favorable. However, the domestic apparent demand growth rate in July may be lower than the expected - 2%. This week, there was inventory accumulation, and next - week's inventory trend depends on domestic demand [6]. - The overall profit of the upstream PVC and caustic soda industry slightly declined this week, but manufacturers have no intention to further reduce production loads for now. Traders are cautious, but their purchasing willingness may increase with the emergence of delivery profit points. Downstream开工率 remains weak, with most transactions concentrated among futures - spot traders [9]. Caustic Soda - This week, the overall caustic soda production increased slightly, and a more significant increase is expected next week as many maintenance - shut devices resume operation. May's caustic soda export volume was lower than expected, and the estimated export volume is around 4 - 6 tons. This week, the national inventory slightly increased, and it may slightly decrease next week if the apparent demand meets expectations [102]. - Upstream caustic soda manufacturers have started to slightly reduce prices, and production is increasing as previously maintained devices resume operation. Traders are cautious with low purchasing willingness, and the support from downstream alumina procurement prices is weakening [106]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production this week was 45.62 million tons, with ethylene - based production at 11.59 million tons and calcium - carbide - based production at 34.03 million tons. Import and export volumes remained stable this week, with an import volume of 1.5 million tons and an export volume of 5.75 million tons per week. The apparent demand was 40.95 million tons, and the total inventory was 77.85 million tons, showing a 0.42 - million - ton increase [6]. - The prices of related products: caustic soda 32% increased from 790 to 810 yuan/ton, Shandong liquid chlorine rose from - 550 to - 400 yuan/ton, Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton, Shaanxi semi - coke decreased from 620 to 585 yuan/ton, and ethylene prices started to decline [7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - In terms of production profit, the calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 460 to - 432 yuan/ton, and the calcium - carbide production profit in Inner Mongolia increased from 92 to 120 yuan/ton. The northwest integrated PVC profit increased from - 571 to - 454 yuan/ton, while the Shandong externally - purchased calcium - carbide method profit decreased from - 101 to - 291 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of import - export profit, the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from - 5 to 2 yuan/ton, and the theoretical export profit to India increased from 547 to 639 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated and weakened [8]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall profit of the upstream PVC and caustic soda industry slightly declined this week. The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased from - 138 to - 231 yuan/ton, and the export profit slightly improved [8]. 3.1.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to reach around 45.98 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 42.92 million tons. If current production and demand levels are maintained, inventory is expected to decrease, but it may continue to accumulate if domestic demand remains weak [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, caustic soda production was 80.97 million tons, with an import volume of 0.02 million tons and an export volume of 4.6 million tons per week. The apparent demand was 75.87 million tons, and the total inventory (in 100% equivalent) was 21.60 million tons, showing a 0.52 - million - ton increase [102]. - The price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded from - 550 to - 400 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable at 210 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased from - 138 to - 231 yuan/ton, and the caustic soda export profit showed an upward trend. The basis of 32% caustic soda weakened, and the spread showed a wait - and - see trend [105]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - The overall profit of the caustic soda industry chain showed a mixed trend this week. The profit of externally - sold liquid - chlorine - type devices improved, while the comprehensive profit of PVC - supporting enterprises slightly declined [105]. 3.2.4 Market Expectation - Next week, caustic soda production is expected to reach 81.29 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.5 million tons. If the apparent demand meets expectations, the inventory may slightly decrease [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market has shown an emotional rebound, but there is a need to beware of callback risks. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the polyethylene production increased slightly. Next week, many devices are expected to resume production after maintenance, and the production may continue to increase. The import volume remained stable, and the main reason for the stable import was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand was worse than expected this week, and there was a slight inventory accumulation instead of the expected de - stocking. If the demand improves next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This week's production was 60.91 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 60.59 million tons. Next week, it is expected to reach 62.16 million tons, and the week after next, 62.95 million tons [5]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume was 28.89 million tons this week, the same as last week, and is expected to remain the same in the next two weeks. The export volume was 2.50 million tons this week, unchanged from last week and expected to remain so [5]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: Crude oil prices were in a shock, with this week's price at 69.52, down 0.84 from last week's 70.36. Coal prices showed a weakening trend, rising from 623 last week to 630 this week [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of oil - based PE decreased from 8224 last week to 8159 this week, while the cost of coal - based PE remained unchanged at 6395 [6]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end is expected to strengthen first and then weaken next week. The profit of coal - based PE weakened, with this week's profit at 395, down 80 from last week's 475. The import profit of LL weakened, with this week's profit at - 489, down 39 from last week's - 449 [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, the total inventory was 106.59 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from last week. It is expected to be 99.52 million tons next week and 97.58 million tons the week after next [5]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory increased from 49.31 million tons last week to 52.93 million tons this week. Among them, the inventory of "Two - Oil" enterprises increased from 40.00 million tons to 42.90 million tons, and the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises increased from 9.31 million tons to 10.03 million tons [5]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream inventory increased from 51.75 million tons last week to 53.66 million tons this week [5]. 3.2.4 Upstream, Mid - stream and Downstream Views - **Upstream**: Upstream maintenance devices have started to resume production. Currently, upstream supplies are relatively sufficient, and upstream inventory has increased month - on - month, so there is no large - scale price increase for now. However, the spot - futures arbitrage transactions are relatively good [7]. - **Mid - stream**: The mid - stream shipment situation has deteriorated. The recent price fluctuations have led to a decline in spot transactions to the downstream [7]. - **Downstream**: The continuity of downstream replenishment is poor. This week, the transactions deteriorated, and the replenishment willingness continued to decline. However, after the price increase on Friday night, the downstream's willingness to purchase slightly increased [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week. The basis in North China increased from - 70 last week to - 30 this week, while the basis in South China weakened from 110 last week to 80 this week [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and weakened. The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 36 last week to 23 this week, and the 9 - 1 month spread decreased from 13 last week to - 27 this week [6]. - **Variety Spread**: The HD - LL spread in North China increased from 260 last week to 270 this week, and the LD - LL spread in North China increased from 1880 last week to 2150 this week. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices remained mainly volatile, rising at the end of the week and then falling back. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September. The supply side has relatively high certainty. As the peak demand season approaches, major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak season, but currently, the peak - season demand cannot be disproven. Subsequently, the market inventory situation should be continuously and closely monitored. If inventory continues to accumulate, the market's peak - season demand expectations will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil has insufficient drivers and may mainly experience a weak rebound. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short positions at high prices [24][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: Iraq set different official selling prices for August - bound Basra Medium crude oil to different regions; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 173,000 barrels per day in June, and OPEC's crude oil production increased by 220,000 barrels per day; the US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels; the UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory decreased by 1.131 million barrels; the US EIA reported changes in multiple indicators such as crude oil exports, domestic production, and inventories; Indonesia's biodiesel consumption reached 7.42 million kiloliters as of July 16; the US oil drilling rig count decreased to 422 as of July 18 [10][15] - **Macroeconomic**: China - US trade teams are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results; China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% in the first half of the year, and imports decreased by 7.7%; China's June social消费品 retail总额 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.8%; the US June unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, and the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%; the US June PPI annual rate was 2.3% [14][18] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump may announce a new plan to arm Ukraine, including offensive weapons; the US and European powers set the end of August as the deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran; Iran's foreign minister said Iran is waiting for the US to show "real determination" [19][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil in the second half of 2025 but maintained its forecast of a supply surplus, expecting prices to fall in 2026 [22] 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include the US API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate, the US initial jobless claims, the US durable goods orders month - on - month rate, and the US oil drilling rig count [23] 3.2 Price Basic Data 3.2.1 Crude Oil Basic Price - Provided price data for Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract from July 2024 to July 2025, along with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes [32] 3.2.2 Crude Oil Forward Price - Presented forward curves for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [55] 3.2.3 Crude Oil Monthly Spread - Included daily data on monthly spreads for Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil [57] 3.2.4 Crude Oil Disk Spread - Showed daily data on spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC [65] 3.2.5 Main Oil Type Premiums and Discounts - Provided monthly data on premiums and discounts for various oil types from different countries to Asia and other regions, as well as the Shandong refinery's crude oil arrival premium and discount [71][84] 3.2.6 US Dollar Index - Displayed the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil price [86] 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand 3.3.1 OPEC Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheet from 2022 to 2026, including production, demand, and inventory data in different regions; also presented the quarterly supply - demand differences and OPEC production balance values [95][106] 3.3.2 EIA Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - Provided EIA's world supply - demand balance sheet in July 2025, including production, demand, inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data; also showed the quarterly supply - demand differences [108][111] 3.3.3 OPEC Major Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Export - Showed monthly production data for OPEC major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][119]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely factors**: The quality of new - season apples may be worse year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high opening price for new - season apples [4]. - **Negative factors**: The output of new - season apples is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apples perform mediocrely during the off - season [4]. - **Market situation**: In Shandong, the outbound volume increased slightly this week, but it's still the off - season, and the transaction price in the warehouse is weak; in the western region, the outbound volume has been slow, with less total inventory and some water - rotted apples in cold storage. Early - maturing apples are on the market at a high price [4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: For single - side trading, lightly short at high positions; for inter - month trading, go long on 2510 and short on 2601; no recommendation for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区现货价格（洛川、栖霞） - Shandong: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 4.05 yuan/jin [7]. - Western region: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan/jin (data stopped updating) [7]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - As of July 17, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 5.56%, down 0.68 percentage points this cycle and 3.32 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 91.26%. As of July 16, 2025, the inventory in main apple - producing areas is 80.60 tons, a decrease of 10.89 tons from last week, and the sales speed has slightly improved [10]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 - As of July 18, in Guangzhou wholesale market, the prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, Qixia 80 boxed, and their corresponding basket - packed apples remained unchanged from last week [13]. 3.4平衡表（库存） No specific content provided. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.29 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week. The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg; that of Kyoho grapes is 12.74 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg; bananas are 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg; pineapples are 6.48 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg; watermelons are 3.00 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg; citrus is 7.48 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg [24]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - On July 18, the basis is 352, the 10 - 01 spread is 132, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 100 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene market rebounded driven by market sentiment, but there is a need to guard against callback risks [1]. - The production volume this week met expectations, with no new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production volume may increase slightly. - The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. PP prices fluctuated, and production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - The basis and inter - month spreads of polypropylene fluctuated, and the spreads between varieties and on the disk also showed different trends. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - **Production Volume**: This week's production volume was 77.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons. In the next two weeks, production volume may increase slightly as device maintenance decreases [6]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: This week, the maintenance loss volume was 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 million tons [6]. - **Import and Export**: The weekly average import volume was 7.50 million tons, and the export volume was 3.75 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In May, exports were 31.03 million tons, and imports were 25.27 million tons, meeting expectations [6]. Demand - **Apparent Demand**: This week's apparent demand was 83.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.64 million tons. Next week, the seasonal expected apparent demand is about 81 million tons [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis showed an overall oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The 09 + 40 yuan/ton basis quote was around in the spot market [6][54]. Inter - month Spread - The inter - month spread oscillated and weakened. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 17 to 8 [9]. Variety Spread - The spreads between different polypropylene varieties, such as fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, etc., showed different trends. The narrow spread between pellets and powders provided some support for pellet prices [9]. Disk Spread - The LL - PP spread oscillated this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Supply**: In the future, as device maintenance decreases, production volume may increase slightly. - **Demand**: Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 81 million tons according to the seasonal pattern. - **Inventory**: This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. - **Cost**: The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. - **Profit**: PP production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - **Strategy**: For the cross - variety strategy, the multi - PP and short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit. For the unilateral strategy, beware of callback risks. For the option strategy, buy put options [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar market: As the production of the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season in Brazil progresses, the increasing supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere continue to suppress international sugar prices. However, the low cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil and the signal of increased demand may provide some upward momentum for international sugar prices. Technically, the raw sugar price is oscillating and rebounding, but the rebound space is still limited [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The spot price of the domestic sugar market fluctuates slightly. Although the domestic - international sugar price spread is widening, the high domestic sugar production and sales rate and the appearance of import profits outside the quota are the main factors suppressing the sugar price. The new industrial inventory is in the destocking stage, which supports the domestic sugar price. It is expected that the sugar price will still show an oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Price changes: ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 16.56 to 16.79, an increase of 1.39%; ICE white sugar main contract rose from 479.4 to 486.4, an increase of 1.46%; Zheng sugar main contract decreased from 5810 to 5805, a decrease of 0.09%. The processing sugar costs in Brazil and Thailand also increased to varying degrees, while the prices in some domestic regions such as Guangxi Nanning decreased slightly, and Yunnan Kunming increased slightly [2]. - Profit changes: The import processing sugar profits (both outside and within the quota) and the import disk profit all showed a slight decline [2]. - Basis and spread: The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou is expected to oscillate weakly; the spreads between Zheng sugar 9 - 11 and 9 - 1 are expected to weaken from high levels; the delivery costs in Guangxi and Yunnan are expected to oscillate slightly [3]. 3.2 Market Key Data Overview 3.2.1 International Market Key Data Overview - Brazil: The bi - weekly production increased from 245.00 million tons to 285.00 million tons, an increase of 16.33%; the monthly export volume increased from 225.66 million tons to 336.18 million tons, an increase of 48.98%. The production is gradually increasing, but the low cane - to - sugar ratio may lead to lower - than - expected production [4]. - Thailand and India: The report shows the bi - weekly cumulative production data of Thailand and India, but no specific analysis of the changes is provided [31][32]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market Key Data Overview - Production and sales: The domestic sugar production and sales rate increased from 65.22% to 72.69%, and the new industrial inventory entered the destocking stage. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.57%, indicating that the spot inventory is low and the formation of warehouse receipts is slow [4]. - Import data: China's sugar import volume increased from 350,000 tons to 420,000 tons, a 20% increase; the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline month - on - month, but the June data has not been released [4]. - Downstream market: The report shows data such as the proportion of online retail in social consumer goods, the number of food industry enterprises, and the PPI of the sugar - making and downstream industries, but no specific analysis of the impact on the sugar market is provided [47][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].