1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.

证监许可[2012]112 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | 交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 25 日 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 护金 | 塑料 | 玻璃 | | 沪铝 | 沥青 | 热轧卷板 | | PVC | 白糖 | PTA | | 焦煤 | 铁矿石 | 沪锌 | | 直滞 | 锰硅 | 沪铜 | | 들 = | 聚丙烯 | 焦炭 | | 豆粕 | 沪银 | 橡胶 | | | 郑棉 | | | | 护锡 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | 标榴油 | | | | 菜相 | | | | 玉米 | | | | 菜油 | | | | 沪铝 | | | | 玉米淀粉 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding the overall market, the market is frequently disturbed by Sino-US tariff conflicts. Although future tariffs may drop to around 50%, this level still has a significant impact on China's exports. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [4][5]. - For different varieties, there are various investment suggestions and trend judgments, such as considering IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or staying on the sidelines for stock index futures; being moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds for treasury bond futures; suggesting to take a short - selling approach for eggs; considering short - selling the LH2507 contract for live pigs, etc. Summary by Directory Macro Information - Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will "drop significantly but not to zero", which is a response to Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment. Bessent expected the tariff war between the two major economies to "de - escalate" [5]. - China's attitude towards the US tariff war is clear: not willing to fight but not afraid to fight. China will fight if necessary and is open to talks [5]. - China and Azerbaijan will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, green energy, and the digital economy [5]. - China's consumer market has achieved a stable start this year. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than the whole of last year. The consumer market is expected to continue to develop steadily [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary adheres to the strong - dollar policy [5]. - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, the service PMI preliminary value was 49.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1. The US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 51.4, and the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 [5]. - Several OPEC + member states will suggest that the organization accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month in June [5]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The stock market fluctuated narrowly due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about selling restrictions. The future tariff reduction to around 50% still has a large impact on domestic exports. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes of weak economic expectations but strong micro - liquidity expectations [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Be moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds. The money market was loose after the tax payment period, and bond market sentiment was weak due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about the central bank's investigation of duration mismatch risks. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [5]. Container Shipping to Europe - Viewpoint: Take profit on long positions in the main contract. The market sentiment on the disk has recovered, but most shipping companies will continue to use the April 30th booking quotes in early May, and some route quotes have been slightly reduced. There are many uncertainties in the market, and the average spot quote may further decline [6][7]. Cotton - Logic and Viewpoint: Domestic actual orders and demand prospects are still worrying. Although there may be a short - term relief, there is still pressure for the domestic cotton price to rebound from a low level. The domestic cotton price rebounded from a low - level shock, boosted by the easing of the global trade situation, but concerns about upstream and downstream demand remain [7]. Sugar - Logic and Viewpoint: There is a stage - based abundant supply, and there is still uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The sugar price will fluctuate. The domestic sugar price mainly follows the international sugar price. The supply is increasing in Brazil, and the exchange rate of the Brazilian real is appreciating. In China, the drought in the south has been alleviated by rainfall, which has suppressed the sugar price [7]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short - sell palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. For palm oil, the current production area has entered the production - increasing season, and the weather is expected to improve in the next two weeks, which will help increase production. For soybean meal, although there is short - term spot tension, the supply pressure will be large in May and June [7][9]. Eggs - Viewpoint: The upward pressure on the spot price is increasing, and there is a possibility of a gradual weakening. It is expected that the egg futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [8][9]. Apples - Viewpoint: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase. The May Day holiday stocking continues, and the market in both the production and sales areas is booming [9]. Red Dates - Viewpoint: Stop losses on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The Xinjiang jujube trees have entered the budding stage, and the supply in the Hebei market is sufficient. The demand for tonics has decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the sales areas is relatively light [9][10]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Consider short - selling the LH2507 contract. The consumer demand is weak, and it is the seasonal off - season. The supply side shows a continuous inventory accumulation phenomenon. The short - term support for the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the continuity of second - fattening entry and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [11]. Crude Oil - Future Outlook: In the long - term trading logic of the crude oil market, the supply side has pressure due to OPEC +'s planned production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in May. The demand side is affected by the weakening US economy and the global trade war. The upward space of oil prices is limited [12]. Fuel Oil - Future Outlook: Fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price fluctuations but be relatively stronger than crude oil. The key is to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [12]. Plastics - Viewpoint: After the L and PP rebound, they can be short - sold. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the long - term impact of tariffs on export demand is large, and the downstream demand is weakening [13]. Rubber - Strategy: There is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - like fluctuation. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. After the NR04 delivery, pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR price difference to widen [13]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Short - sell after the rebound. The international trade environment is still poor, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import supply is increasing, and the downstream profit is poor, which may lead to shutdowns [13]. Caustic Soda - Future Outlook: The spot price is expected to be weak after a round of replenishment. The futures price will also show a similar trend, and it is recommended to maintain a weak - fluctuation trading idea [14]. Soda Ash and Glass - Viewpoint: For soda ash, the supply has marginally improved, but the high - inventory accumulation expectation still exists, and the price is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited space. For glass, there is a risk of decline due to the under - expected peak season. Consider the opportunity of long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage [14]. Asphalt - Future Outlook: Without the expectation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the asphalt price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the price has support, but the upper pressure comes from the oil price [15]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Future Outlook: In the short term, LPG mainly follows the crude oil price fluctuations. The long - term logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand may drive the center of the LPG futures price to move down, and currently, it is mainly in a state of oscillation [15]. Pulp - Future Outlook: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The weak demand and high inventory situation have not improved. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Logs - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro - sentiment. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [17]. Urea - Future Outlook: The spot market atmosphere is relatively poor, and the spot price is expected to decline under pressure. The UR2509 contract can be considered for long - buying after a significant decline [17]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The tariff tension has eased, but there is still uncertainty. The high premium of Shanghai aluminum has declined, but strong de - stocking is the main trend recently. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [16][17]. - Alumina: The production capacity of maintenance and reduction is increasing, and the spot price is stable with strong cost support. However, the expected new production capacity is stable, and the supply surplus expectation is high. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term bottom range, and interval trading can be carried out [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The impact of US tariffs on the lithium carbonate market is not significant. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, and it is advisable to adopt an oscillation trading idea [17][18]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It is difficult to form a continuous de - stocking expectation. The market is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short - sell. The previous short positions and sold call options can be held [19][20]. - Polysilicon: The 06 contract is difficult to fall deeply but has limited upward space. The 07 contract is priced according to the supply - demand contradiction. It is advisable to hold the previous short positions and sold call options and short - sell on rebounds [19][20][21]. Steel and Minerals - Market Outlook: The domestic steel market has weak demand in the building materials sector and some pressure in the coil sector. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is basically stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, with limited short - term upward space [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - Viewpoint: Without large - scale production reduction of coal - coking enterprises or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there is no condition for going long. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [21]. Ferroalloys - Viewpoint: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and sell 06 - contract put options on silicomanganese. The current valuation of both is low, but there is a lack of rebound drivers [21][22].

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 23 日 1.7%。 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/23 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原木 | 棕榈油 | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 鸡蛋 | 原油 | 三十债 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 生猪 | 燃油 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 工业硅 | 橡胶 | 铝 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 焦煤 | 碳酸锂 | 苹果 | | | | | 红枣 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 二债 | | | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | | | | | | | | 甲醇 | 五债 | | | | 公司网址： | | | 中证500股 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Market - The LPR quote remains unchanged, and the market shows a mixed performance. The economic data in March exceeded expectations, but the market is concerned about future data weakness. The micro - liquidity shows signs of state - owned capital support, but market sentiment is still cautious [4]. - In the bond market, there is a certain degree of stalemate. The ultra - long - end bonds can be moderately optimistic, and the short - term bonds are weak. The market needs a significant event to confirm the trend [4]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - **Equity - related Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines in the stock index futures market [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about orders and demand. The impact of US tariffs and the supply - demand situation in the international market also affect cotton prices [6]. - Sugar: The sugar price shows a volatile trend due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - Oils and Fats: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices, but be aware of policy, weather, and soybean arrival risks [9]. - Eggs: Expect egg futures to be weak and volatile, and operate with a short - term bearish view [10]. - Apples: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices [10]. - Red Dates: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [10]. - Livestock: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract of live hogs [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The oil price rebounds and then falls back. In the long - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [12]. - Fuel Oil: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate, and the market's reaction to the trade war and risk release will affect it [13]. - Plastics: L is expected to be weak and volatile. For PP, consider a long position in the near - month contract and a short position in the far - month contract after a correction [14]. - Rubber: The short - term disk is expected to be in a low - level shock, and pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR spread widening after NR04 delivery [15]. - Methanol: It is expected to be weak and volatile due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is expected to be weak and volatile, and glass may face a decline risk. Consider the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash [16]. - Asphalt: The price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan, and the market's reaction to the trade war is the main factor [16][17]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: It follows the crude oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term due to supply - demand changes [18]. - Paper Pulp: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and inventory changes [18][19]. - Urea: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a significant decline, but be cautious in the short - term [20]. - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to shorting opportunities after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and alumina is expected to be in a bottom - range shock and can be bought at low prices [23]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, and polysilicon is expected to have limited upward space in the 06 contract and downward pressure in the 07 contract [24][25]. - Iron and Steel and Ore: The short - term is expected to be volatile, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak. The cost provides some support [26][27][28]. - Coal and Coke: They are expected to be weak in the short - term without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - Ferroalloys: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term but do not chase short [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The 1 - year LPR is 3.1%, and the 5 - year LPR is 3.6%, remaining unchanged for 6 consecutive months [4]. - The Chinese government promotes the opening of the futures market and expands the scope of specific varieties [4]. - Ningde Times releases the second - generation Shenxing super - charging battery [4]. - The US economic and financial markets are affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the global financial market is volatile [4]. - China promotes the expansion of service industry opening - up pilot projects [4]. - The expected interest rate of ordinary personal insurance products may be adjusted [4]. - The US may shrink its activities in Africa [4]. - The US economy is affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the stock market continues to fall [4]. 3.2 Futures Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be moderately optimistic about the ultra - long - end bonds [4]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Take profit on long positions in the far - month contracts [4][5]. 3.3 Commodity Market Analysis - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure due to weak demand and the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand situation in the international market also affects it [6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is volatile due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil is affected by seasonal production increase and other factors, and the soybean meal supply may increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in the near - term due to low inventory and good sales [10]. - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Livestock**: The hog price may be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the oil price and is affected by the market's reaction to the trade war [13]. - **Plastics**: The L is expected to be weak, and the PP has different trends in the near - month and far - month contracts [14]. - **Rubber**: The short - term disk is expected to be in a shock, and pay attention to the spread opportunity [15]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weak due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is weak, and glass may decline. Consider spread trading [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price is in a range and is affected by the oil price and the trade war [16][17]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It follows the oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [18]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory [18][19]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a decline [20]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is slightly bullish, and alumina is in a bottom - range shock [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is bearish, and polysilicon has limited upward space [24][25]. - **Iron and Steel and Ore**: The short - term is volatile, and the medium - long - term is weak. The cost provides support [26][27][28]. - **Coal and Coke**: They are weak in the short - term without production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - **Ferroalloys**: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term [30].

目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月21日 --------氯碱价格由弱转强 期货预期由乐观转向悲观 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周液碱产量79.2万吨，环比上上周80.91万吨略有下滑。本周产量预计在79.95万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） | | | 氧化铝 | 上周山东氧化铝液碱采购价格稳定至2266元/吨。近期氧化铝企业液碱收货价格与非铝下游液碱收货价格价差扩大，氯碱企业送氧 化铝企业液碱积极性下降。氧化铝企业液碱库存持续消耗。 | | 需求 | 粘胶短纤开工 | 上周粘胶短纤产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea supply is expected to increase with the planned resumption of production by 3 parking enterprises and no planned maintenance by enterprises in the coming week. The weekly average daily output is estimated to rise from 19.86 million tons to 20.00 million tons [6]. - Agricultural demand for urea continues to advance, with fertilizer use in the rice - growing regions and later in the Northeast region starting successively. However, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate has declined slightly, and the consumption of urea for thermal power denitration has decreased with the rise in temperature [6]. - Urea enterprise inventory has been rising due to the weakening of downstream industrial demand and the short - term gap in agricultural demand. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 90.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.25 million tons (+8.70%) [6]. - Urea prices are expected to stabilize, and production profits are expected to recover. For example, the production profit of urea factories using the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is expected to increase from 250 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton [6]. - In the futures market, after the main contract shifted from UR05 to UR09, the price of the 09 contract was pressured by short - side active position - increasing. Looking ahead, as production increases, supply will be more abundant, and demand is expected to increase with the arrival of the peak season for summer corn fertilizer production in the Huanghuaihai region. However, the view of demand over - consumption in the market may suppress the 09 contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - Domestic urea spot prices are presented for different regions such as Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [9][10]. - International urea prices and spreads are shown, including FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the port - collection profit of small - particle urea in Shandong factories and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory port - collection from 2021 - 2025 [12][13]. - Unit nitrogen element prices and spreads are provided, including the price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, and between urea and ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [15][16]. - Phosphorus and potassium fertilizer prices are given, including the prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - Urea futures basis and inter - month spreads are presented, including the price of the urea futures 05 contract, its basis, and the 5 - 9 spread from 2020 - 2025 [21][22][23] 3.2 Urea Supply - Domestic urea production data is provided, including weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025 [27][28]. - Coal prices and urea profits are shown, including the prices of anthracite lump and bituminous coal, as well as the production profits of fixed - bed process in Shanxi and new - process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 [29][30]. - Urea factory inventory and apparent consumption data are presented, including enterprise inventory, enterprise - perspective daily average apparent consumption, enterprise urea order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [32][33] 3.3 Urea Demand - Compound fertilizer data is provided, including the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import volume, export volume, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025 [37][38]. - Compound fertilizer upstream data is presented, including the weekly output of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [39][40]. - Another set of compound fertilizer upstream data shows the operating rate of domestic potassium fertilizer, port potassium fertilizer inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative supply volume from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - Melamine data is provided, including weekly output, price, price - to - urea ratio, and domestic net retention volume from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - Urea export data is presented, including monthly export volume and cumulative export volume from 2021 - 2025 [48][49] 3.4 Urea Inventory - Urea inventory data is provided, including enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [50][51]

多空分歧较大，关注PDH装置开工率 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年4月21日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | 周环比 | | 下 周 | 下下周 | 综 | 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 75 . | 70 | 74 . | 85 | -0 85 . | | 79 86 . | 78 ...

中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年4月21日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 供需双弱，建议偏空配置 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上 周 | 本 | 周 | 周环比 | 下 周 | | 下下周 | 综 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量 | 国产量 | 62 47 . | 63 . | 35 | 0 88 . | 64 89 . | | 65 61 . | 本周产量小幅度增加 与预计数值差别 ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年4月21日 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | 下 周 | 下下周 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 44 . | 79 | 45 . | 19 | 0 . | 40 | 43 24 . | 45 25 . | 本周检修装置复产较多 ...