1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Based on fundamental analysis, the report classifies various futures products into trend空头 (downward trend), 震荡偏空 (slightly bearish with oscillations), 震荡 (sideways movement), 震荡偏多 (slightly bullish with oscillations), and 趋势多头 (upward trend). For example, liquefied petroleum gas is in the 震荡偏空 category, while CSI 500 stock index futures are in the 震荡偏多 category [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, products are categorized as 偏空 (bearish), 震荡 (sideways), and 偏多 (bullish). For instance, sugar is classified as 偏空, while lead futures are 偏多 [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments for multiple futures products based on fundamental and quantitative analyses, and offers trading strategies and market outlooks for each product. It also analyzes macro - economic information and its impact on the futures market [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to follow the short - term strong trend. A - shares showed a strong performance, and with the release of policies and market expectations, the index rebounded after a pull - back, suggesting a continuation of the trend - following approach [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Consider a steepening strategy in the short - term and short long - term bonds. The central bank's open - market operations and the performance of the stock and commodity markets affect the bond market, and there is a possibility of the bond market weakening under the pressure of stocks and commodities [13]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Ore**: The black market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. Demand may seasonally weaken, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are likely to oscillate between the cost of valley - electricity and flat - electricity [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation phase. Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. It is recommended to consider strategies such as going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or conducting reverse arbitrage between near - and far - month contracts of silicomanganese. In the long - term, a bearish approach is appropriate [17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy when prices are high and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere returns. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market needs to digest speculative inventory [18]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term. For alumina, there is room for the basis to repair, and it is advisable to go long on the basis in the short - term. In the long - term, due to supply - demand imbalances, it is recommended to short alumina at high prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Social zinc inventories are increasing, and with the recovery of smelter production and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current tight - balance fundamentals support prices, and the short - term decline is limited. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contradiction lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream policies and supply - side policies [24]. - **Polysilicon**: The policy expectation has cooled, and the price may return to the fundamentals and warehouse - receipt game. The supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether policies can stimulate terminal demand [25][26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to oscillate and rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but supply concerns support prices. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand factors [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar supply and the decline in import costs. However, the expected demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may limit the decline [28][29]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract price of eggs has reached a historical low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the upside is limited. It is advisable to wait and see, and be cautious when considering bottom - fishing [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples and the price of old - season apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The supply and demand sides are under pressure, but there is also support from policies. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy implementation [35]. - **Red Dates**: It is advisable to wait and see. The production is still in dispute, and the market is oscillating [36]. - **Pigs**: It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term [36][37]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about oil demand due to the downward revision of US economic data. OPEC+ is increasing supply, and the long - term trend is towards a supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to US secondary sanctions on Russia and the summer demand [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: There is no clear main - line logic for oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate between 70 and 65 dollars, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil prices [39]. - **Plastic**: The market sentiment is unstable, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak [41]. - **Rubber**: In the short - term, rubber prices may oscillate slightly stronger. It is advisable to short - long after a pull - back and be cautious when chasing high prices [42]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices follow the overall commodity trend and are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand are weak, and the port inventory is increasing [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply in Shandong is at a high level, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [44]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no clear main - line logic, and the asphalt market is in a seasonal transition period with slow inventory reduction [45][46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is still weak. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately, but not to increase short positions aggressively. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices, and the supply and demand are not favorable [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the long - term. The price is likely to fall [48]. - **Pulp**: The main - contract sentiment is cooling, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [49]. - **Logs**: The spot price has increased, and the basis is being chased. There is some hedging space, and it is advisable to observe and consider hedging at high prices [50]. - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are judged to have trends such as trend short, oscillating short - bias, oscillating, oscillating long - bias, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, varieties are divided into short - bias, oscillating, and long - bias [3][4][8]. - A series of macro - economic events have occurred, including central bank monetary policy adjustments, corporate incentive stock grants, new energy vehicle sales data, and international trade and tariff policies [11][12]. - Different investment strategies are proposed for various futures varieties, such as short - term strong - trend observation for stock index futures, a steepening strategy for bond futures, and different trading suggestions for black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical futures [15][16][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank's July data shows that SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 100 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase a net injection of 188 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 200 billion yuan. There was no open - market treasury bond trading in July [11]. - The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to clarify customer due - diligence requirements for financial institutions. For remittances abroad of over 5,000 yuan or the equivalent in foreign currency, the remitter's identity must be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling over 10,000 yuan of non - registered prepaid cards at one time [11]. - Tesla's board approved a grant of 96 million incentive shares to CEO Elon Musk, subject to his continued leadership for the next two years and a five - year holding period [11]. - In July, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.18 million, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 4% month - on - month decrease. Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of mid - July, 22 banks in Hong Kong were approved to sell digital asset - related products, 13 to sell tokenized securities, and five to provide digital asset custody services [12]. - Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's resale of Russian oil [12]. - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a trade statement [12]. - Since April, the issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, reaching a new high in July with 616.936 billion yuan, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to observe the short - term strong trend and pay attention to the performance at the upper resistance level. The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday, with pharmaceutical and military stocks rising. The market turnover was 1.52 trillion yuan. There are discussions about a possible US - China agreement and Trump's potential visit to China in early September. After the US non - farm payroll data was revised down, the market is betting on a Fed rate cut in September. The stock index has rebounded after a five - week rise and a pull - back to the 20 - day line [15]. Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider a steepening strategy in the short term due to the loose money supply. After the cross - month period, the central bank's OMO maintained a large - scale net injection, and the money supply was loose. The long - term bond market was affected by the stock index's performance and the uncertainty of interest tax, resulting in large intraday fluctuations in bond futures [16]. Black Futures Steel and Ore - The "anti - involution" statement has been relaxed. The black market is expected to be in a high - level shock. Fundamentally, demand may weaken seasonally, but the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore prices are oscillating strongly. The market adjustment is due to the change in the "anti - involution" statement in the Politburo meeting [19][20]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level shock stage. The adjustment of trading limits by the exchange and the change in the "anti - involution" statement have affected the market. Fundamentally, supply is tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported coal supply [21]. Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. The price is in a reasonable range, and chasing short positions may be risky. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended [22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, a short - on - rally strategy is recommended, and for glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and needs to digest speculative inventory [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation to short on rallies. Alumina prices may see a short - term basis repair but are expected to be shorted on rallies in the long term due to high supply and inventory [26]. Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. With rising processing fees and increasing supply, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices will oscillate downward [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The current tight - balance fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, there is pressure from industrial hedging [29]. Polysilicon - Policy expectations have cooled, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt game contradictions. The supply - demand situation is expected to turn to inventory accumulation [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as low downstream production motivation, inventory levels, and international trade policies [33]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increased supply, but the decline may be limited by festival demand. International sugar markets are expected to have a supply surplus [35][36]. Eggs - The price of the 09 contract has hit a record low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is high, and it is recommended to wait and see, with caution when going long [38]. Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position positive - spread strategy. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [39]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures, but there is also bottom support. It is advisable to focus on short - term trading [40][41]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather in the production area [42]. Pigs - It is recommended to short the near - month contract and consider a 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak in the short term [43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation. The price is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US sanctions, and peak - season demand. There may be a short - term rebound [45]. Fuel Oil - There is no main - line logic for oil prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US employment data, and sanctions against Russia [46][47]. Plastics - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the market sentiment is turning bearish. It is recommended to be slightly short - biased and beware of callback risks [48]. Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment and are gradually returning to fundamentals. It is recommended to close short positions and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. A slightly short - biased strategy or selling call options can be considered [50]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [51]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no main - line logic, and asphalt is in a seasonal off - peak season, with slow inventory reduction [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to short on rallies. The cost support is weak, and the demand is low. The supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester chain varies [53]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. The price is likely to fall [54]. Pulp - The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to observe the inventory reduction at ports and the improvement of spot transactions [54][55]. Logs - The spot price has increased, and the market is trading to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices [56]. Urea - The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has boosted the market. The domestic market sentiment has improved, and a shock strategy is recommended [56].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 沥青 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | 燃油 | 氧化铝 | 三十债 | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 尿素 | 二债 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | | | 棉纱 | 铁矿石 | | | | | 棉花 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 焦炭 | | | | | 短 ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 45.15 | 44.94 | -0.21 | 46.74 | 48.68 | 本周产量略有减少，下周检修装置复产 较多，鄂尔多斯40万吨恢复、新疆中泰 | | 产量 | | | | | ...

行情回归基本面，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 77.36 | 77.33 | -0.03 | 78.62 | 79.73 | 本周产量符合预期，新增检修装置不 多多，未来两周装置检修减少，产量 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 可能会小幅回升。 ...

市场情绪消退，转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 61.51 | 61.18 | -0.32 | 65.14 | 63.81 | 本周产量小幅度减少，下周装置检修复 产较多，产量可能会继续增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 8 月 1 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/8/1 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 沪深300股指期货 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 橡胶 | 沥青 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 多晶硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 中证1000指数期货 | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 橡胶 | 液化石油气 | | | | 0531-81678626 | | 棉花 | 氧化铝 | | | | 客服电话： | | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | | | 白糖 | 二债 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 尿素 | 五债 | | | | | | 瓶片 | 三十债 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend - bearish products such as aluminum, zinc, and alumina; products with a bias towards a downward - oscillating trend like liquefied petroleum gas; oscillating products including thirty - year bonds and sugar; products with a bias towards an upward - oscillating trend such as crude oil and fuel oil; and no products with a trend - bullish view [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, there are products with a bearish bias like corn starch and glass; oscillating products such as Shanghai gold and palm oil; and products with a bullish bias like Shanghai lead and Shanghai copper [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - China's policies include implementing more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, addressing local government debt risks, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple products. China plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for parenting subsidies, and relevant industries plan to control over - capacity [9][10][11]. Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. If it is not broken, the trend will continue. The A - share market showed mixed trends, and the capital market has new policy expressions. Be cautious about the movement of profit - taking funds [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Policy implementation may repair inflation expectations, and the bond market may rebound. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level. In the medium term, consider shorting on rallies [15]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward price pressures. Be cautious in operation [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Costs vary, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to be bearish on rallies [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass can be put on hold after closing long positions. Pay attention to supply - side resumption and demand improvement [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Both can be shorted on rallies [21]. - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate downward due to increased supply and weak demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will mainly oscillate due to limited supply - side disturbances and weakening macro - sentiment [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It will maintain an oscillating trend, and the core contradiction lies in the resumption progress of leading manufacturers [24]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a strong policy expectation but a weak supply - demand reality. Be cautious in operation and pay attention to policy implementation and inventory generation [25]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is advisable to be bearish on rallies and pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [26]. Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic sugar prices are under pressure from imports but supported by low domestic inventories. It will follow international sugar prices [29]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to position control [33]. - **Apples**: Consider a long - spread strategy and pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to market sentiment and policy impacts [34]. - **Red Dates**: Observe the fruit - setting situation in the production area and changes in the market [37]. - **Hogs**: Short near - month contracts and consider a reverse - spread strategy. The short - term market is supply - strong and demand - weak [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. In the short term, it may rebound due to sanctions on Russia. Pay attention to sanctions and peak - season demand [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil prices. The cracking profit is weakening, and pay attention to the impact of power generation demand and shipping [41]. - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is advisable to be slightly bearish after a rebound [43]. - **Methanol**: It follows the overall commodity trend and is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider holding put options or being slightly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures may be strong in the short term [45]. - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is significantly affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Consider shorting on rallies [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It rebounds with crude oil but is weaker. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term [49]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions [50]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are supply - and - demand weak. Be cautious about chasing high prices and consider hedging strategies [51]. - **Urea**: Be bearish as enterprise inventories increase and the market is weak [52].

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

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