1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is currently affected by various factors such as global trade wars, US tariff policies, and domestic economic policies. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [4]. - For futures trading, different strategies are recommended for various commodities according to their supply - demand relationships, price trends, and external factors. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including encouraging enterprises to stabilize employment, supporting foreign investment, and promoting service consumption [4]. - Fiscal revenue in the first quarter decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% [4]. - In Beijing, the new - start area of real estate development increased by 19.1% year - on - year in the first quarter, and the sales area of new commercial housing increased by 6.2%, but the residential sales area decreased by 2.7% [4]. - The US government is discussing forming a working group to deal with supply - chain crises caused by high tariffs on Chinese goods [4]. 3.2 Futures Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The market trading volume has shrunk, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The market is affected by policy expectations and economic data [4]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - In the case that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts do not exceed expectations, maintain a moderately optimistic attitude towards ultra - long - term bonds. Pay attention to reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - Consider taking appropriate profit on short positions. The market has absorbed the expected increase in freight rates during the peak season and supply - side pressure. The freight rate may face different situations in May, with potential short - term tightness and long - term oversupply [4][5]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. The impact of US tariffs, USDA reports, and domestic supply - demand conditions all affect cotton prices. Although there was good export data in March, the overall situation is still not optimistic [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price fluctuates due to factors such as the start of the new sugar - making season in Brazil, the reduction in India's production, and the uncertainty of the supply - demand gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices. The production of palm oil is in the seasonal increase period, while the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the future [10]. - **Apples**: Consider lightly buying near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the market consumption is in a good state [10]. - **Jujubes**: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [10]. - **Pigs**: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract at high prices. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing [11]. 3.2.5 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil has rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, and the US economic slowdown and trade wars affect the demand. The market is in a state of super - decline repair, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: The demand for fuel oil is declining, but there is still power - generation demand in the high - sulfur summer. It is expected to fluctuate with the oil price [13]. 3.2.6 Chemicals - **Plastic**: L is expected to fluctuate weakly, while PP can be considered for long positions in the near - month contract after a correction and short positions in the far - month contract [14]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price of caustic soda is expected to be weak after a restocking cycle. The futures price is expected to follow a similar trend [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high supply and inventory. The price of glass is expected to be weak as the market expectation is pessimistic [17][18]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan without a significant increase in crude oil prices [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are short - term weak. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and the inventory rhythm [20][21]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - position idea for the UR09 contract at low prices as the supply and demand are expected to be strong in the later stage [22]. 3.2.7 Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly, while alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom and can be considered for long positions at low prices [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Consider an oscillatory approach as the short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, while polysilicon has over - supply pressure in the medium term [26][27]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline weakly in the long term [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke is expected to be weak in the short term [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: Short manganese silicon at high prices and long silicon iron at low prices [31].

2025-04-21 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 75.56 | 1.79 | 75.60 | 73.80 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 41.65 | 1.26 | 41.67 | 40.68 | 龙头厂家检修结束，部分新产能开工趋 ...

2025 年 4 月 17 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/4/17 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 合成橡胶 | 尿素 | 玻璃 | 氧化铝 | 苹果 | | | 鸡蛋 | 上证50股指期货 | 燃油 | | | | 焦炭 | 中证500股指期货 | 五债 | | | | 集运欧线 | 铝 | 十债 | | | | 焦煤 | 纯碱 | 三十债 | | | | 工业硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 二债 | | | | 多晶硅 | 沥青 | 烧碱 | | | | 红枣 | 沪深300股指期货 | 硅铁 | | | | 棕櫚油 | 棉花 | | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | 棉纱 | | | | | 橡胶 ...

交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 晨会纪要 客服电话： 2025 年 4 月 16 日 400-618-6767 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 1 V = 1 = 1 = V | | -- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | | | | 白糖 | 玻璃 | 燃油 | | | | 三十债 | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 二债 | 纯碱 | 烧碱 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 碳酸锌 | 纸浆 | | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | | | | | 五债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 十债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 工业硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 红枣 | 棉花 | | | | | 棕櫚油 | 棉纱 | | | | | ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 15 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/4/15 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 棉纱 | 纯碱 | 炊油 | | | | 白糖 | 生猪 | 氧化铝 | | | | 棉花 | 纸浆 | 烧碱 | | | | 尿素 | 碳酸锂 | 苹果 | | | | 锰硅 | 眞海 | 旦相 | | | | 工业硅 | 铝 | 塑料 | | | | 硅铁 | 玻璃 | 十债 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 沥青 | 三十债 | | | | 棕櫚油 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 红枣 | 热轧卷板 | | | | | 甲醇 | 多晶硅 | | | | | | 液化石油气 ...

4月7日-4月11日当周，受关税风波影响，多数商品下跌，碳酸锂期货重心亦发生明显下移，主力合约时隔近半年再度跌破70000元/吨整 数关口，4月9日LC2505下探68400元/吨，整周价格运行区间68400-72020元/吨，主力合约持仓减少6.5万手，价格收70260元/吨，跌 3.96%，产量和库存方面，4月10日周产量报17962吨连续四周小幅走高，但整体产出水平弱于一个月前；社会库存报131020吨，库存增 加近2000吨，继续累库且再度突破整数关口。产量与库存均利空价格，但近期三月数据出炉，据乘联会，2025年1月底新一轮补贴政策 落实后，狭义乘用车2—3月零售最终高于此前预期；据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，2025年3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产 量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。另，欧盟对我国新能源汽车设限放缓，政策方面存在潜在利好托底锂价。 主要交易逻辑 锂盐端国内面临的市场情况并没有因美关税产生明显变化，成品端未来需求被进一步限制，在国内面临新能源汽车旺季效应弱化、磷酸 铁锂订单增速放缓、三元材料排产下滑的现实状况时，对等关税对碳酸锂品种影响不大；成品端对 ...

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月14日 --------氯碱综合利润趋近于0 弱现实与成本支撑之间博弈增加 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周液碱产量80.91万吨，环比上上周79.48万吨略有增长。本周产量预计在80.3万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） | | | 氧化铝 粘胶短纤开工 | 上周山东氧化铝液碱采购价格下跌172元/吨至2266元/吨。近期氧化铝企业库存维持高位，液碱收获量下滑，价格有望维持稳定。 上周粘胶短纤产量7.71万吨，环比上上周8.11万吨下滑，山东、江西、福建、新疆部分粘胶装置运行负荷下降。且多地库存出现上 ...

——阶段性需求淡季来临 现货依旧存在一定支撑 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 中泰期货尿素周报 2025年4月14日 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | | | 2025年4月3日-4月9 2025年4月17日-4月 产业链 | 2025年4月10日-4月 | 2025年4月24日-4月30 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日 23日 | 16日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万吨 | 19.44 19.43 | 19.57 | 19.57 | 上周新增5家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本周预计0家企 业计划检修，2家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众资 | | | | | | | 讯） | | | 农业 ...

中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 2025年4月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | 周环比 | | 周 下 | 下下周 | 思 路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 46 . | 75 | 45 . | 72 | -1 . | 04 | 43 39 . | 43 37 . | 本周有新增检修装置 产量小幅度减少 ， | | 量 产 | | | | | | | | | | 后期检修计划开始增加 且有部分 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 14 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 客服电话： 400-618-6767 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋 | 护锡 | 采柏 | | 【— | 甲醇 | 热轧卷板 | | 白糖 | 郑棉 | 玉米淀粉 | | 护银 | 걸ニ | 焦煤 | | 锰硅 | PTA | 沪铅 | | 螺纹钢 | 护铜 | 沪锌 | | 玉米 | PVC | 沪铝 | | | 橡胶 | | | | 直掲 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 玻璃 | | | | 焦炭 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 沥青 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 豆粕 | | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 护金 | | | ... | 菜油 | ...