Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with glass, coking coal, and pure benzene leading the gains [1]. - Overseas macro: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit. There are concerns in the US employment market. - Domestic macro: The economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic commodities. - Asset view: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Long - term, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US led to a small rebound in the US dollar index. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market such as rising permanent unemployment and continued increase in continued jobless claims, along with slower wage growth [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has affected commodities like coking coal, rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities improved [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. In the fourth quarter, there is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. The long - term weak - dollar pattern persists, and strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies will be implemented as planned. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index approaches the 3500 mark, with insufficient incremental funds, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Stock Index Options**: The probability of volatility decline is high, with deteriorating option liquidity, and the short - term outlook is volatile. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remains volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping - company pricing strategies, with a short - term volatile outlook [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - For steel products, the macro sentiment fluctuates, and the futures prices are volatile. Pay attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and molten - iron production. - For iron ore, the small - sample molten - iron production decreases, and the price fluctuates upward. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten - iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics. - For other products such as coke, coking coal, silicon ferroalloy, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, various factors affect their prices, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For most non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the prices are affected by various factors such as tariffs, supply, and demand. The short - term outlook is mainly volatile, with some showing a downward trend [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term downward - volatile outlook. - Other energy - chemical products such as LPG, asphalt, and high - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors, and their short - term outlooks vary from volatile to downward [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock, the prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and policies, and the short - term outlook is mainly volatile. Some products like rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with volatile trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [6] - Alumina: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [7] - Aluminum: Expected to be "震荡偏强" (sideways with a slight upward bias) in the short - term and cautious about long - term consumption [10] - Aluminum alloy: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term and have upward potential in the medium - term [11] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) [15] - Lead: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [16] - Nickel: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) in the medium - to - long - term, and strengthen in the short - term [21] - Stainless steel: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows a game between US reciprocal tariff measures and domestic policy stimulus expectations, leading to repeated macro - expectations and continued volatility in the non - ferrous metals market. - From a supply - demand perspective, the supply - demand of base metals is seasonally loosening, with domestic inventory destocking slowing down and some varieties starting to accumulate inventory slightly. - In the short - to - medium - term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and low - buying short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin can be cautiously considered. - In the long - term, the demand prospects of base metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to sell short at high prices for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: US tariffs on copper may be implemented, pressuring the price of Shanghai copper. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the US Commerce Secretary said the new tariff might be implemented at the end of July or on August 1st. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. As of July 10th, copper inventory increased. - **Logic**: Macro factors put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper ore processing fees are falling, raw material supply is tight, and overseas smelters are reducing production. Demand is weakening in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Arbitrage space has opened, but sentiment is stronger, and alumina prices continue to rise. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in various regions have increased. Guinea has introduced reform measures for the mining industry, including creating the Guinea Bauxite Index and exercising sales and transportation rights. Alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged on July 8th, and Xinjiang's alumina shipments will be affected in the short term. - **Logic**: In the short - to - medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and production capacity and inventory are increasing, but warehouse receipts are still low. The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment drives prices up. In the long - term, Guinea's policies may affect ore prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are oscillating with a slight upward bias. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and inventory in the main consumption areas decreased. Aluminum rod inventory increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was approved, and Trump announced tariffs on imports from 14 countries. - **Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, and domestic anti - cut - throat competition expectations drive up sentiment. Aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is uncertain, and downstream demand may be under pressure in the second half of the year [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and aluminum alloy prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum widened. Thailand plans to levy a carbon tax. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, supporting costs. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, demand may recover seasonally [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of ferrous metal prices boosts galvanizing demand, and zinc prices are strong in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of July 10th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. - **Logic**: Macro factors boost galvanizing demand. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. However, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, supply may exceed demand, and prices may fall [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained stable. Lead ingot inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the premium is stable. On the supply side, the cost of recycled lead is stable, and production is increasing slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The real - estate market has become a hot topic again, and nickel prices are strengthening in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. There have been many investment and production - start events in the nickel industry in Indonesia, Canada, and Brazil. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of raw materials may increase, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the medium - to - long - term and strengthen in the short - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Sentiment supports the upward movement of the stainless - steel futures market. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Stainless - steel production decreased in June, and social inventory decreased last week. - **Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and demand may weaken after the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to the scale of production cuts by steel mills and inventory changes. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and Indonesia's refined tin exports are restricted, supporting prices. However, the impact may be limited, and terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of the monitored varieties (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin), but no specific monitoring content is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Performance Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - **Logic**: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - **Logic**: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Performance Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-11 初申失业金人数下降，金价上行受阻 ⾦价连续第⼆天上涨，⽬前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不⾜。 美元⾛软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注，为⾦价提 供⽀撑。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三向七个小型贸易伙伴发出了最终关税通知， 与此同时，美国政府与其最大贸易伙伴欧盟距离达成协议更近一步。 2）布鲁塞尔正在与美国方面讨论一系列措施，旨在保护欧盟汽车产 业免受美国高额进口关税的影响。这些措施包括削减关税、设定进口 配额，以及对欧盟汽车制造商对美出口提供抵免。 3）俄罗斯国防部称："俄罗斯联邦武装部队使用高精度远程武器和 无人机对基辅的军工企业和军用机场基础设施实施了集群打击。" 4）美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 22.7万人，预期23.5万人， 前值由23.3万人修正为23.2万人。 价格逻辑： 金价连续第二天上涨，目前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不 足。美元走软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注， 为金价提供支撑。同时，全球贸易紧张局势也推动投资者涌入黄金这 一避 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China CPI rose 0.1% YoY in June, PPI dropped 3.6% YoY in June. Futures Pri ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Report Summary Core View - In the week ending July 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, continuing the upward trend from the previous period. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.9% to 94.7%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day but remained at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, reaching the lowest level since the week of May 9. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the production decline. Gasoline inventories declined from a high level, diesel inventories continued to decline against the seasonal trend, and the apparent demand for refined oil products increased. The seasonal accumulation of total crude oil and petroleum product inventories has not stopped, and the single - week data has limited indication [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes (Unit: million barrels)**: US commercial crude oil inventory change was +7.07 (previous value: +3.845); Cushing crude oil inventory change was +0.464 (previous value: -1.493); strategic petroleum inventory change was +0.238 (previous value: +0.239); gasoline inventory change was -2.658 (previous value: +4.188); diesel inventory change was -0.825 (previous value: -1.71); jet fuel inventory change was -0.909 (previous value: +0.631); fuel oil inventory change was -0.453 (previous value: -0.389); crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) was +6.411 (previous value: +9.361) [6]. - **Production and Demand (Unit: thousand barrels per day)**: US crude oil production was 13,385 (previous value: 13,433); refined oil apparent demand was 20,863 (previous value: 20,487); gasoline apparent demand was 9,159 (previous value: 8,640); diesel apparent demand was 3,668 (previous value: 4,043); crude oil imports were 6,013 (previous value: 6,919); crude oil exports were 2,757 (previous value: 2,305); refinery crude oil processing volume was 17,006 (previous value: 17,105); refinery utilization rate was 94.7% (previous value: 94.9%) [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of different products [3][5][10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international diesel futures continue to be strong, and the downstream performance is eye - catching, providing support for crude oil prices. The overall energy and chemical market is expected to oscillate, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][3] - Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound due to the continuous strength of crude oil prices and the unfulfilled expectation of a decline in refined oil crack spreads, but the downstream and terminal industries do not support a trend - upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Diesel remains strong, with the immediate spread of European ICE diesel reaching its highest level since 2022 and the US diesel crack spread rising. The low inventory in the US and Europe, combined with refinery outages and good demand, contributes to the strength of refined oil. The global crude oil inventory has not increased further since June [1] - Chemical product basis has stabilized slightly after a significant decline. Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound, but the downstream does not support a long - term upward trend. The spread between pure benzene and styrene is still narrowing [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - US crude oil commercial inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis, and oil prices remained stable. On July 9, EIA reported that US gasoline demand was still very strong. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and diesel remains strong. OPEC + may increase production in September, and the US sanctions on Iran remain unchanged [5][8] Asphalt - Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, increasing heavy - oil supply. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, and production is expected to increase in July. The demand side shows that asphalt is overvalued [10][11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production, and the decline in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. China's increase in fuel oil import tariffs and the decline in geopolitical tensions also have a negative impact [12] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil to oscillate. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13] LPG - The cost - side support of LPG weakens, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly due to factors such as the significant reduction in CP prices in July, the rapid accumulation of US propane inventory, and weak domestic demand [14][15] PX - Crude oil prices rise, driving PX to rebound. In the short term, the tight - balance pattern of PX continues, but the terminal market does not provide strong support, and the absolute price of PX has a downward trend [17] PTA - PTA is affected by terminal negative feedback and oscillates weakly. It is expected that the PTA market will decline this week due to factors such as the expected weakness of crude oil prices, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction in production by downstream polyester factories [17] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has risen continuously due to positive news of downstream production. In the medium term, the situation in July - August is favorable, but high inventory may suppress the rebound [18] Styrene - Styrene rebounds driven by the strength of pure benzene. However, its own supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventory is accumulating [22] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - EG is boosted by the rise in energy prices and oscillates due to its own supply - demand situation. The EG09 contract has upward elasticity, while the 01 contract may be shorted on rebounds [23][24] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber production and sales have slightly increased, the basis is stable, and processing fees have risen. The short - fiber supply - demand pattern oscillates, and the downstream weakness has not been transmitted to short - fiber itself [24] Bottle Chips - Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and processing fees need to remain low to promote maintenance. The absolute value of bottle chips follows raw materials, and the further compression space of spot processing fees is limited [26] Methanol - Methanol port inventory accumulates, and it oscillates. The price in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the logic of reduced imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is sufficient [27][28] Urea - Urea has a situation of weak supply and demand, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot market is active, and exports help reduce inventory [28] Plastic (LLDPE) - The short - term driving force of LLDPE is limited, and it oscillates. The raw material support is weakening, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [30][31] PP - PP maintenance has increased slightly, and it oscillates in the short term. The cost - side support is weakening, the supply side has an increasing trend, and the demand side is weak [32] PVC - PVC has low valuation and weak supply - demand, and it oscillates. The new production capacity will be put into operation, the downstream demand is weak, and the export situation has not improved significantly [34] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda may be in a situation where downstream replenishes inventory, and the market is strong. It is supported by the low price of liquid chlorine and the possible downstream replenishment [35] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads, such as Brent M1 - M2 spread increasing by 0.04 to 1.21, and PX 1 - 5 month spread increasing by 10 to 46 [36] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety vary. For example, the asphalt basis is 212 with a change of - 24, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [37] - **Inter - variety spread**: The inter - variety spreads also show different changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread decreasing by 14 to - 268, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread increasing by 20 to 378 [38]