1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For major domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic Financial Markets**: Stock index futures (including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures) showed slight daily declines, while bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) also generally declined. The US dollar index remained unchanged, and the US dollar intermediate price had a 16 - pip increase. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Domestic Commodities**: In the non - ferrous metals sector, lithium carbonate led the increase with a daily increase of 3.42%. Industrial silicon also rose by 3.33%. In the black metals sector, iron ore increased by 0.33%, and coke by 0.36%. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil increased by 2.65%, and low - sulfur fuel oil by 1.48% [2][4]. - **Overseas Commodities**: In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 2.81%, and ICE Brent crude oil by 2.54%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX silver increased by 3.85%. In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper decreased by 0.20% [3][4]. - **Hot Industries**: The pharmaceutical industry rose by 1.82%, the comprehensive financial industry by 1.74%, and the non - ferrous metals industry by 1.44%. The real estate industry decreased by 0.25%, the power and public utilities industry by 0.27%, and the building materials industry by 0.34% [3][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been announced, with most rates being lowered except for Japan and Malaysia, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales and inventory monthly rates were both - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The employment market has hidden concerns, and the "Big and Beautiful" Act will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The export to the US recovered, and the "anti - involution" policy affected domestic demand - oriented commodities [7]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Asset Classes - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term [9]. - **Financial**: The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures will continue a moderate upward trend, stock index options should be treated with caution, and bond futures have a weakening sentiment [9]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment [9]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The market sentiment leads, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The game of reciprocal tariffs and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus have led to a stop in the decline of non - ferrous metals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with zinc and nickel showing short - term strength but with potential downward risks [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: OPEC+ has increased production unexpectedly, and the energy and chemical sector is weakly volatile. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12]. - **Agriculture**: The capital sentiment has quickly pushed up the rubber price. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the steel industry is "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6]. - The short - term outlook for iron ore is "sideways - strong", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [2][9][10]. - The short - term outlook for scrap steel is "sideways" [10]. - The short - term outlook for coke is "sideways" [10][12][13]. - The short - term outlook for coking coal is "sideways" [13]. - The short - term outlook for glass is "sideways", and the long - term view is to maintain a "sideways" view [6][14]. - The short - term outlook for soda ash is "sideways", and the long - term outlook is that the price center will decline [6][14][16]. - The short - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is to follow the sector fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term prices face upward pressure [16][17]. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic expectations continue due to topics such as "anti - involution" and coal industry self - discipline. The macro - trend dominates the market during the off - season. With frequent macro - level positives and good fundamentals, short - term prices are expected to run strongly. The industry should focus on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased, in line with expectations. Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and hot metal production decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the port inventory decreased slightly, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - Some previously shut - down mines in major production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The China - Mongolia border port is closed, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Coke producers have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the time. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alloys Manganese - Silicon - The price of manganese ore has remained stable recently, but port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to decline significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to improved profitability. The demand side remains resilient as the output of finished steel products remains at a relatively high level. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The current fundamentals of silicomanganese are stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [16]. Ferrosilicon - The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the profitability in production areas has been continuously restored. The supply side is expected to increase in the future, although the current resumption of production is slow. The demand side remains resilient as steel production remains high. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [6][17]. Glass - Demand is declining during the off - season, and deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Supply is increasing as there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. With the "anti - involution" sentiment rising, the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][14]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. There are rumors of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The demand for light soda ash from downstream is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Although sentiment affects the futures price, the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6][14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-15 硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势 趋强 新能源观点：硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，市场情绪转向偏乐观，新能源金属价格走势趋强。 中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，工业硅和多晶硅价格大幅上涨， 这在一定程度上对碳酸锂也构成较为正面的提振，后续密切留意产业 链动向，需谨防政策预期短期无法兑现但现实供需偏弱背景下，新能 源金属价格双边波动风险；长期来看，低价或有望进一步加快国内自 主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅等，碳酸锂还处于产 能兑现阶段，若锂矿无实质性减产，长期过剩问题还将存在，这将限 制价格上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪持续，硅价有所回升 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策延续发酵，多晶硅价格⾼位运⾏ 碳酸锂观点："反内卷"背景下的供应扰动炒作，碳酸锂增仓⼤涨 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal ratings include: Copper - "震荡" (Oscillation); Alumina - "震荡" (Oscillation); Aluminum - "短期仓单数量和累库仍需观察，预计价格区间震荡；中长期消费仍有隐忧，视库存和升贴水拐点区间思路偏逢高空" (Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points); Aluminum Alloy - "震荡" (Oscillation); Zinc - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Lead - "震荡" (Oscillation); Nickel - "震荡偏弱" (Oscillation with a weak bias); Stainless Steel - "震荡" (Oscillation); Tin - "震荡" (Oscillation) [1][5][6][9][10][13][14][16][17][20][21] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff game continues, and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus is increasing. Overall, the macro - expectation is volatile, and non - ferrous metals will continue to oscillate. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of basic metals are gradually seasonally loosening, and domestic inventories are gradually rising seasonally. In the short - to medium - term, tariff uncertainty and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Focus on structural opportunities, cautiously consider short - term long positions in aluminum and tin on dips, and short zinc ingots on rallies. In the long - term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and shorting opportunities on rallies for some varieties with excess or expected excess supply and demand can be considered [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The time for the US copper tariff to take effect may be advanced, and the price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper has led to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices. The US Secretary of Commerce said the tariff may be implemented at the end of the month, weakening the siphon effect on copper in the US and alleviating the tight supply - demand situation in non - US regions, putting pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper ore processing fees continue to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. The demand is weakening as the consumption off - season approaches. Domestic and foreign inventories are accumulating again, and the risk of LME squeeze has eased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, but demand is marginally weakening, and the US copper tariff is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. It is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [5][6] 3.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Market rumors suggest that the mining permit issue has eased, and the alumina futures price has declined. - **Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and operating capacity and inventories are gradually rising. The Guinean government's new policies may increase corporate costs and affect the bottom - line expectation of ore prices. - **Outlook**: Cautious reverse arbitrage [6] 3.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory has significantly accumulated, and aluminum prices have declined under pressure. - **Logic**: The short - term tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, but there is still strong uncertainty. The fundamentals have shown marginal weakening signs, with inventory accumulation, spot discounts, and a decrease in the risk of near - month squeeze. - **Outlook**: Short - term: Observe warehouse receipts and inventory accumulation, expect price range - bound oscillation; Medium - to long - term: Consumption has concerns, consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and premium/discount inflection points [9] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and the futures price has corrected. - **Logic**: Short - term, ADC12 faces a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, while demand is in the off - season. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 is expected to rise in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate at low levels, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [10][12] 3.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are in excess, and zinc prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the prices of black - series products are rebounding. The supply of zinc ore is loosening in the short - term, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and demand expectations are general. Zinc ingot inventories are accumulating, and the support for zinc prices is weakening. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will continue to increase, and downstream demand will enter the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13][14] 3.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the discount has narrowed, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. On the demand side, the off - season has not completely passed, but the start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories is higher than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: The US tariff suspension period is postponed to August 1st, but the announced tariffs are high, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the start - up rate of battery factories is recovering. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost support of recycled lead is stable, and lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15][16] 3.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports, and nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may loosen. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly declined. The inventory has significantly accumulated, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: Philippine nickel enterprises are increasing nickel ore exports to Indonesia. Nickel prices will oscillate widely in the short - term, and long - term trends need further observation [16][17][18] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to weaken, and the stainless - steel futures price is running weakly. - **Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Although the futures price is rising, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In terms of supply and demand, stainless - steel production decreased in June but remained at a high level historically. As demand exits the peak season, there is a risk of weakening demand. Inventory has decreased, and the pressure of structural surplus has been alleviated. - **Outlook**: The weakening cost weakens the support for steel prices, but beware of the possibility of an expanded scale of production cuts due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. The demand side is putting pressure on steel prices as it exits the traditional peak season. Focus on inventory changes and cost changes in the future. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short - term [20] 3.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Logic**: The shortage of domestic tin ore is intensifying, and the replacement of Indonesian refined tin export licenses has brought new supply problems. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, strengthening the bottom support for tin prices. However, the impact of the short - term interruption of Indonesian exports may be limited, and the terminal demand for tin will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: The tightness of the ore end supports the tin price. Whether the tightness at the ore end can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of the tin price in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a warm and volatile trend, while the bond market sentiment is cautious. The main anti - involution theme in the stock index futures continues to develop, and option trading should focus on covered defense. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the current month are - 8.67, - 6.01, - 12.46, and - 20.11 respectively, with changes of - 8.46, - 3.84, - 8.38, and - 11.81 compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.6, 3.2, 57, and 68.8 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 0.4, 7.4, and 4.8. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by - 19160, - 14582, - 14672, and - 28320 hands respectively [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after rising on Monday, standing firm at 3500 points with trading volume shrinking to 1.5 trillion yuan. The large - and small - cap stocks showed differentiation. The banking sector had a momentum effect, and there is a possibility of a tail risk of crowding in the banking sector. The main anti - involution theme continues to develop, and the anti - involution trading is expected to last until the Politburo meeting in July. During the release of the semi - annual report forecasts, the profit of the cyclical chain industries has improved, and the industries with a large upward adjustment of the ROE consensus expectation in June generally have excess returns. A - shares are insensitive to overseas tariffs. It is recommended to allocate IM long positions [1][5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased significantly compared to the liquidity high on Friday. The weighted implied volatility decreased by 1.05%, and the sentiment indicator (PCR of open interest) decreased by 1.29% on average. During the period of continued market volatility, it is recommended to focus on covered defense [2][5] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter have different changes. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis points also have corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [6] - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of treasury bonds mostly increased. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by the approaching tax period, and the inter - bank funding rate mostly increased. The better - than - expected credit and import - export data in June also had a negative impact on the bond market. The improvement in risk appetite and better - than - expected economic data are negative for the long - end of the bond market, while the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous purchase of short - term bonds are positive for the short - end. It is appropriate to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][6][7] Economic Calendar - On July 14, 2025, China's export amount in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan, both better than expected. On July 15, the data of China's industrial added value in June and the US CPI in June are yet to be released [8] Important Information and News Tracking - Financial data: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale in the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Exports: In June, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars. In the first half of the year, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.9%. The trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [9] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that the daily order volume (excluding self - pick - up and free purchases) exceeded 80 million [9] - The Fed's Harker said that the inflation target has not been reached, and it is still very important to maintain a tight monetary policy. There is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and there is uncertainty about the economic situation later this year [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [2][9][11] - The top three gainers were poly - silicon, glass, and coking coal, while the top three decliners were rapeseed oil, eggs, and copper (BC) [9][10][11] - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for iron ore, ferrosilicon, and lithium carbonate [15][22][29] Summary According to the Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodities advanced, with metals and energy & chemicals leading the gains [9][11] - Poly - silicon rose by 5.5% with open interest increasing by 1.5% month - on - month; glass climbed by 5.2% with open interest decreasing by 10.1% month - on - month; coking coal went up by 4.2% with open interest decreasing by 2.3% month - on - month [9][11] - Rapeseed oil dropped by 0.8% with open interest decreasing by 2.4% month - on - month; eggs fell by 0.7% with open interest decreasing by 7.5% month - on - month; copper (BC) declined by 0.5% with open interest decreasing by 1.8% month - on - month [10][11] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Iron Ore - On July 10, iron ore increased by 3.7% to 763.5 yuan/ton. The demand is high, and fundamentals have no obvious contradiction. After the upward movement, the futures price reached an important resistance level, and the spot market is dominated by wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term price fluctuation is expected [15][17] - Overseas mines ended their end - of - quarter shipment rush this week, with shipments falling month - on - month. The arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded slightly but was lower than expected, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel enterprises' profit rate has stabilized, and molten iron output remains at a high level year - on - year. Ports slightly destocked due to lower - than - expected arrival and high demand, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [16][17] 1.2.2 Ferrosilicon - On July 10, ferrosilicon increased by 3.6% to 5576 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap filling in the future, increasing market destocking difficulty. The price upward driving force is insufficient, but due to industry losses and cost support, the futures market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to electricity cost adjustment [22][24] - On the supply side, manufacturers' operating rate rebounded from a low level, and overall supply tends to increase. On the demand side, steel product output remains high, but there is an expectation of a slight decline in finished steel product output during the off - season. The support duration of steelmaking demand for ferrosilicon prices needs cautious consideration. Hebei Iron and Steel's July bidding started with a purchase volume of 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons month - on - month. Magnesium metal manufacturers have growing sentiment to support prices, but downstream acceptance of high - priced sources is still cautious [23][24] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 10, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.4% to 64180 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate [29][31] - The market sentiment of "anti - involution" continues to ferment, and futures warehouse receipts are not high, so the price strengthened slightly in the short term. Weekly output decreased slightly month - on - month, domestic lithium ore output maintains growth, but imported lithium salts are expected to decline. From January to June, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. July is the traditional off - season, but demand production scheduling expectation is good, and leading enterprises also have signs of purchasing. Social inventory continues to accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously destocked recently. Policy changes are significant, with domestic anti - involution sentiment fermenting and the US "Big Beautiful Act" having a negative effect on demand [30][31] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals since May 2025 and reviews relevant export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [34][35] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Further Increasing Policy Support for Stabilizing Employment", proposing policy measures from 7 aspects to promote high - quality economic development [34][35] - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening fair competition review and intensifying anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement on July 9, 2025 [34][35] - Starting from January 1, 2025, the basic pension levels for retirees who have gone through retirement procedures in accordance with regulations and receive monthly basic pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2%, with the overall adjustment level being 2% of the monthly average basic pension of retirees in 2024 [34][35] 2.2 Industry News - Benzene futures and options will be listed for trading on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange at 9:00 and 21:00 on July 22, 2025, respectively. The first batch of benzene futures contracts to be listed are PL2601, PL2602, PL2603, PL2604, PL2605, PL2606, and PL2607 [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak pattern in the industrial chain persists, especially in the aromatic hydrocarbon chain. The start - up rates of polyester, texturing, weaving, and downstream of styrene have declined significantly. After a short "catch - up rise" of chemicals relative to crude oil, the market may gradually recognize the downturn in the real - economy industries [2] - OPEC+ is considering a production increase in September, and will complete a 2.2 million barrels per day production increase from April to September, then may pause further production hikes. Global crude oil supply is gradually increasing [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: OPEC+ considering a September production increase, crude oil will continue to oscillate and consolidate. The market is worried about the impact of the trade war on the global economy. Macro - economic conditions are still relatively positive, but the futures price needs to see more inventory accumulation to break the oscillation pattern [7] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. With OPEC+ increasing production, heavy - oil supply is rising, and demand - side indicators show that asphalt is overvalued [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical factors have a short - term impact on prices [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price difference between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil may maintain a low - valuation operation due to increasing supply and falling demand [3][12] LPG - **Viewpoint**: Cost - side support is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11] PX - **Viewpoint**: With the general rise of commodities, PX rebounds. The tight - balance pattern continues, but there is a downward trend in absolute prices due to poor terminal market support [15] PTA - **Viewpoint**: Following the general rise of commodities, PTA moves upward. However, it is expected to decline in the short term due to factors such as weakening crude oil prices and falling downstream demand [16] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The pure benzene futures price rises due to positive news from downstream, positive macro - sentiment, and possible capital - driven behavior. The situation from July to August is favorable, but high inventories may suppress the rebound [17] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Styrene prices rise due to the rebound of market sentiment and short - squeezing in the downstream. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand fundamentals [18] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: With the decline in downstream start - up rates and the increase in its own start - up rate, EG will oscillate in the short term and may trend downward in the long term [19] Short Fibers - **Viewpoint**: The start - up rate remains stable weekly, and short - fiber prices follow the fluctuations of raw materials. Concerns exist about the continuous sharp decline in terminal weaving start - up rates [20] Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The start - up rate continues to decline, and the processing fee remains stable. The absolute price follows the fluctuations of raw materials [21] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: With limited spot support, methanol will oscillate. Positive market sentiment and stable supply and demand in the coal market are the main factors [24] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supported by exports, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment, and supply is affected by high - temperature maintenance [25] LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, plastics will oscillate. However, the fundamental situation is still under pressure, with high supply and low demand [28] PP - **Viewpoint**: Driven by market sentiment, PP will oscillate in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively weak [29] PVC - **Viewpoint**: With strong expectations but weak reality, PVC will oscillate. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season [32] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Caustic soda is expected to operate strongly. Market sentiment is positive, and low inventory and low liquid chlorine prices are the main supports [34] Group 4: Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.17 with a - 0.05 change, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 50 with a 4 change [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, asphalt's basis is 196 with a - 16 change and 82300 warehouse receipts [36] - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads have their own values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 300 with a - 32 change [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend with various commodities experiencing different price movements and market conditions. The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions. Each commodity is expected to have its own short - to - medium - term outlook, mainly ranging from "oscillation" to "oscillation with a certain bias" [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - **观点**：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空，近期油脂或继续震荡分化 [5]. - **逻辑**：美豆类下跌，国内三大油脂震荡分化；美国对外贸易紧张，美元盘整，原油微跌；美豆长势良好，优良率66%，美国“大而美”法案提振生柴对美豆油需求，巴西将提高生柴掺混比例；国内进口大豆到港量大使豆油库存回升；MPOB报告显示马棕6月出口低于预期、库存高于预期，7 - 9月增产压力增大；国内菜油库存高位但缓慢下降，中加贸易关系不确定 [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - **观点**：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹，短期区间震荡运行 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际大豆贸易升贴水有变化，中国主要采购巴西大豆支撑其升贴水上涨；美豆多空交织区间震荡；国内供应压力大但盘面受成本支撑，豆粕累库、胀库压力增大，下游补库不足，油厂开机率下降；长期看9月大豆买船加速，四季度偏慢，能繁母猪存栏预示豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增 [6]. 3.1.3玉米/淀粉 - **观点**：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：期货主力合约低位震荡，现货贸易环节出货积极性提高，部分企业收购价调低；进口玉米拍卖成交率76%；24/25年进口同比下降，期末库存预计去化，但小麦和进口玉米补充供应，新季玉米成本下移，市场情绪转弱，关注库存去化和短期紧缺反弹风险；美玉米2025/26年度期末库存预计低于上月预测 [6][7]. 3.1.4生猪 - **观点**：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调，短期猪价由弱转强，中长期有供应压制风险 [8]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期7月计划出栏量减少，散户二育心态复苏，中期下半年出栏量或增长，长期产能仍在高位，若落后产能出清将带来向好预期；需求方面，肉猪比价和肥标价差下降；库存上，降重趋势有分歧，散户有累库趋势；节奏上，短期宏观调控带来利好，集团场出栏压力部分释放，中长期供应压力仍在，需关注库存和供给侧调整 [8]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - **观点**：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 [1][11]. - **逻辑**：受资金情绪影响，商品市场多头情绪浓厚，橡胶前期未跟涨估值偏低，且与宏观强关联，补涨合理；基本面短期无大矛盾，供给端亚洲产区雨季原料价格反弹，7、8月船货到港预计偏少；需求端部分轮胎企业开工恢复，库存积压好转，三季度或有去库交易，若宏观情绪维持，胶价易涨难跌 [1][11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面跟随上涨，整体维持区间震荡运行 [13]. - **逻辑**：受天胶冲高和商品市场情绪带动盘面走高，丁二烯价格本周企稳，但终端需求弱势，市场成交多为刚需，供应端压力累积，供需矛盾凸显，行情偏弱 [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - **观点**：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强，短期震荡 [13]. - **逻辑**：新棉25/26年度中国及海外主产国有增产预期，美棉面积下滑产量预计持平；需求端处于消费淡季，纺织厂开机下滑、成品累库，采购需求转弱；库存端全国商业库存同期偏低，新花上市前低库存格局难改支撑棉价，但新作增产预期抑制上方空间，关注天气变化 [13]. 3.1.8白糖 - **观点**：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限，长期震荡偏弱，短期震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：25/26榨季全球糖市预期供应宽松，主产国均有增产预期；巴西入榨量和食糖生产量同比下滑，制糖比提高但食糖高产有变数；印度季风降雨利于甘蔗生长；国内进入纯销售期，产销率高，工业库存同比下滑，但进口预计增加；巴西出口增多，供应边际压力将显现 [15]. 3.1.9纸浆 - **观点**：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高，期货走势震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：期货跟随宏观氛围上涨，现货同步；供需数据偏弱势，欧洲港口库存走高，月度美金盘价格走低，下游纸制品产销季节性偏弱；但价格进入低位区间，金融市场走势偏暖，预计反弹继续但技术压力渐显 [16]. 3.1.10原木 - **观点**：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡，中期维持区间760 - 830运行 [17][18]. - **逻辑**：07合约交割使交割品货源流通压力大，现货有下跌压力，买卖双方成本提升；进入7 - 8月季节性淡季但需求平稳，去库缓慢，新一期外商报价提涨，整体现货处于筑底阶段；伴随交割博弈结束，市场回归基本面主导，关注基差变化 [17][18]. 3.2品种数据监测 - The report lists various commodities such as oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, etc., but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the given text. 3.3评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard for the expected price movement of commodities over the next 2 - 12 weeks, including "stronger," "oscillating with an upward bias," "oscillating," "oscillating with a downward bias," and "weaker," with the standard deviation defined as "1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price" [168].

图表 4: 硅锰: 日均产量: 中国 (周) 图表 5: 硅铁: 日均产量:中国(周) · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 吨/天 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第49周 第53周 图表 6: 硅锡企业:开工率:中国(周) 合金周度数据 2025年07月11日 研究员: | 余典 从业资格号 F03122523 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | | 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 薛原 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅羅 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-04 | 环比 | 硅铁 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-04 | 环比 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].