投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货研究|权益及期权策略周报（商品期权） 2025-03-01 黄金调整，关注部分基本金属 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 2020-06-17 2020-08-28 2020-11-16 2021-01-26 2021-04-14 中信期货商品指数走势 中信期货十年期国债期货指数 中信期货沪深300股指期货指数 中信期货商品指数 权益及期权策略组： 报告要点 摘要 热点分析： 本周多数品种指标仍以延续前期情绪为主，黄金期权指标未出现过多消极 情绪，关注部分偏强势的基本金属品种。 黄金价格出现调整，但黄金期权 PCR 指标仍偏积极，出现小幅上涨，同时 波动率以震荡为主，并未出现由价格回调引起的大幅波动，情绪跟随相对 有限。 基本金属方面，锡期权指标出现异动，铜、铝指标仍偏强势。锡期权成交 额 PCR/成交量 PCR 本周出现大幅反弹，应注意近期价格反弹上升情况的出 现。此外，铜持仓量 PCR 仍以反弹为主，情绪偏积极，相比之下，铝期权 指 ...

Real Estate - Real estate sales are gradually weakening, with new and second-hand home sales declining ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - Last week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 41 cities was 1.6189 million square meters, down 38.84% year-on-year and 22.01% month-on-month[4] - The average price index for new homes in major cities shows a mixed trend, with Beijing down 1.92% month-on-month and Shenzhen up 6.20% month-on-month[4] Infrastructure - Infrastructure demand remains resilient despite a seasonal slowdown, with the physical workload index at 29.46, down 34.03% year-on-year and 11.72% month-on-month[54] - The issuance of special bonds for 2025 has begun, with approximately 198 billion yuan issued as of January 23, 2024[45] - In December, 4,520 projects were initiated nationwide, with a total investment of approximately 26,168 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.77%[52] Manufacturing - December excavator sales reached 19,369 units, showing a month-on-month recovery[70] - Retail sales of home appliances have seen a rebound, with air conditioner sales at 361,000 units, up 8.73% month-on-month[79] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 48,300 units last week, indicating a recovery trend[73] Inflation and Exports - Food prices, energy, and industrial product prices have shown signs of recovery[94] - Port container throughput has increased, indicating a rebound in export activities[98]

Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing market remains relatively active, while new home sales have declined month-on-month[2] - In the past week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 41 cities was 2.0759 million square meters, down 48.94% year-on-year and 37.02% month-on-month[3] - The average price index for new homes in major cities shows fluctuations, with Beijing's index at 21.91, down 14.55% year-on-year but up 2.00% month-on-month[3] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 19 cities was 2.4170 million square meters, up 36.84% year-on-year and 1.50% month-on-month[3] Infrastructure - The infrastructure physical workload index was 33.37, down 30.21% year-on-year and 9.49% month-on-month[61] - The newly issued special bonds for 2025 reached approximately 39,016 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year[48] - The total investment in newly started projects from January to November 2024 decreased by 35.9% year-on-year[55] Manufacturing Sector - Excavator sales in November reached 17,590 units, up 17.86% year-on-year and 4.76% month-on-month[77] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars were 86,900 units, showing a month-on-month increase[80] - Home appliance retail sales have declined, with air conditioner sales at 332,000 units, down 3.77% month-on-month[87]

Export Performance - In December 2024, China's exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 7.1% and the previous value of 6.7%[11] - The month-on-month export growth for December was 7.6%, significantly higher than the seasonal average of 5.6% from 2013 to 2023[11] - The overall export growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5.9%, a notable recovery from the previous year's decline of -4.7%[11] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to countries excluding Japan and India showed a general recovery, with significant increases to Africa (24.8%), the US (15.6%), and Latin America (16.9%)[16] - Exports to the US improved due to inventory replenishment driven by a recovery in US manufacturing, with a month-on-month growth of 3.2% in December[19] - Exports to Japan turned negative at -4.2%, a decline of 10.6 percentage points from the previous value[16] Commodity Insights - The automotive sector saw a remarkable increase, with exports of vehicles (including chassis) and parts rising by 12.1% and 15.6%, respectively, with volume growth up by 24.8%[27] - Steel exports continued to show resilience, with a growth rate of 8.5%, attributed to potential anti-dumping investigations in Southeast Asia[27] - Exports of aluminum products fell sharply by 32.9% due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to a slowdown in previous "export rush" activities[31] Import Trends - December imports rose to a growth rate of 1.0%, surpassing expectations of -1.0% and the previous decline of -3.9%[41] - The overall import growth for 2024 is expected to be around 1.1%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand[41] - Significant increases in imports were noted from the US (2.6%), South Korea (19.7%), and Japan (6.3%) in December[41]

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 165,000 jobs[12] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value and below the expected 4.2%[13] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%[14] Sector Contributions - Major contributions to job growth came from retail, leisure and hospitality, service production, financial activities, government, and education and healthcare sectors, while manufacturing jobs declined[20] - Service sector jobs increased by 137,000, with government employment rising by 3,000 to 333,000[20] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in December showed a year-over-year increase of 3.9% and a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, both slightly lower than previous values[14] Market Reactions - Following the strong non-farm data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in early 2025 were further reduced, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 93.6%[27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6% to 109.6, while 1-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.25% and 4.77%, respectively[28] - Major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1.5% following the data release[28] Future Considerations - Attention is advised on the implications of immigration policies, tariff implementations, and federal workforce reductions post-Trump's inauguration on January 20[24] - The upcoming annual revisions of non-farm data will be crucial for assessing the labor market's resilience[12]

Group 1: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The real estate policy aims to stabilize prices and promote demand through inventory digestion, with a neutral expectation for recovery by Q4 2025[7] - As of December, the manufacturing PMI composite index is at 50.1%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point month-on-month decline, indicating marginal improvement in the domestic economy[19] - Real estate investment remains low, with a 10% year-on-year decline in investment from January to September 2024, and a nearly 15% drop in commodity housing sales[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Conditions - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a potential economic upturn, with new orders and inventory expanding[32] - The dollar index has risen by 0.8%, putting pressure on risk assets globally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down by 1.6% and 2% respectively[36] - The central bank has indicated a clear stance on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, despite the absence of expected rate cuts by the end of 2024[22] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investors are advised to maintain low positions in the stock market under low-risk preferences, while bond market dynamics may continue to evolve[37] - The key variable for real estate recovery is inventory digestion, which is expected to be supported by policy interventions[15] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and economic recovery, as well as unexpected trade and geopolitical shocks[5]

00000000 00000000 0000000 地产:房价 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ▫ 制造业：汽车销量增速有所回升，家电零售有所下滑。工程机械：11月挖掘机销量为17590台，同比17.86%，环比4.76%；10月挖掘 机内销为8266台，同比21.63%，环比8.62%。汽车：上周厂家零售乘用车日均销量为8.30万辆，环比有所上升；家电：近期家电销售 有所上升，上周空调零售量为31.554万台，环比4.48%。洗衣机零售量为43.003万台，环比-0.23%。冰箱冷柜零售量为35.4736万台， 环比10.86%。通胀与出口：本周食品价格、能源与工业品价格以回落为主；货物吞吐量环比回落，运价环比上涨。 ▫ 风险因素：基建发力不及预期；地产需求超预期。 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------|---------------------- ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[3][4][5][9][10] - The content primarily focuses on market observations, trading strategies, and macroeconomic data without detailing any quantitative model construction or factor-based methodologies[3][4][5][9][10]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, evaluation, or testing results[3][4][8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 全球新能源车市2024年中展望 中信期货研究所 新兴组 李兴彪 从业资格号:F3048193 投资咨询号:Z0015543 朱子悦 从业资格号:F3090679 投资咨询号:Z0016871 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目录 中国新能源车市分析与展望 欧洲新能源车市分析与展望 美国新能源车市分析与展望 其他国家车市分析与展望 全球预测:2024/2025/2026年新能源车销量为1546/1772/2024万辆(拜登连任情形) | 单位:万辆 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | |-------------------------------------|--------|----------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|-----------|-------- ...