Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place, causing significant macro-level disturbances to the market price, which trended upward with fluctuations. Based on current news, the positive impacts of this round of talks have mostly been realized, and styrene is gradually returning to its fundamental situation. Styrene port inventories remain relatively low, resulting in tight spot liquidity and a strong near-month basis. In the medium to long term, styrene supply is expected to recover while demand enters a slow season, presenting a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3-year) of 85.8% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. Additionally, selling call options (EB2507C7500) with a 50% ratio at a range of 60 - 90 can reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and purchases are to be made based on orders, it is advisable to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. Selling put options (EB2507P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 30 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The market price is greatly affected by macro factors during the Sino-US economic and trade talks, but styrene is gradually reverting to its fundamentals. Port inventories are low, spot liquidity is tight, and the near-month basis is strong. In the long run, supply will recover and demand will enter a slow season, showing a near-strong and far-weak pattern [3]. Positive Factors - As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating another round of destocking at the port [4]. - The raw material inventory of downstream styrene factories is low, and the restocking demand provides some support for the styrene price, with a strong basis for the June contract [4]. - Supported by macro-level positives and restocking by downstream factories, the price of pure benzene has risen. This week, Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. Negative Factors - As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid to late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [9]. - The previously shut-down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, leading to an increase in supply [9]. - There is news that the US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports, alleviating the supply contradiction at the raw material end [9]. - As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) from the previous period [9]. Market Data - The daily change in the styrene basis shows different trends for different contracts, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - The prices of various products in the styrene and pure benzene industrial chains, including crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, have different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [11][12]. - The profits of different products in the styrene downstream industry, such as EPS, HIPS, GPPS, and ABS, also show different trends [12].

贵金属日报: 地缘局势升温 黄金受益上涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月12日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场黄金收高，白银和钯金震荡调整，铂金则继续大涨。周三晚间公布的美CPI略低于预期 曾一度助推黄金上涨，因降息预期回升，但很快黄金冲高回落。然中东地缘局势升级担忧为金价上涨提供 重要支持，并伴随油价大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3376美元/盎司，+0.98%；美白银2507合 约收报于36.36美元/盎司，-0.77%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报777.54元/克，+0.56%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8902元/千克，-0.28%。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线走势分化，黄金延续震荡，伦敦金阻力3400，3438，3500。伦敦银则维持偏强 状态，上方目标位已上移至40区域，但日线有调整压力，支撑35.9-36区域，关键支撑34.8-35区域。我 们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会。 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium to long term. The short - term (1 - 3 months) probability of the Guinea Axis mine remaining shut is high, but the long - term risk of permanent closure is uncertain [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term, with a possible short - term upward trend, but a bearish view in the medium term [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure. Short - term unilateral operations should be cautious, and positive spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 2895 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.4309, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.9309 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main alumina futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main alumina futures contract at 2700 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The Guinea Axis mine has not resumed production, and port inventory shipping is restricted. The market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and falling spot prices [3]. - **Leveraging Factors**: The Guinea government has revoked some mining licenses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: New production capacity is being put into operation, demand has no growth, profit recovery may lead to the resumption of production by shut - down enterprises, and spot prices have fallen in some areas [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 20250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19000 - 20300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0977, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 0.4114 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high product inventory, short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 20100 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio; for raw material management with low raw material inventory, long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract at 19600 yuan/ton with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is weakening, and low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short term [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Low inventory and continuous de - stocking, tight spot supply in East China [5][8]. - **Negative Factors**: Terminal factory orders have decreased significantly, downstream operating rates have declined slightly, and there are signs of product inventory accumulation [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Forecast**: The latest price is 19400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 18500 - 19900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Core Contradictions**: The cost is strongly supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, but there is an oversupply and expected weakening demand. The futures contract has a BACK structure [5]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Tight scrap aluminum supply supports costs [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Expected weakening demand and industry over - capacity [5][6]. Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of various aluminum and alumina contracts are provided, including Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina contracts, as well as regional price differences and basis data [7][9][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of aluminum and alumina, including Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, London Metal Exchange inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts, are presented [27].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月11日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指反弹，静待中美谈判结果 市场回顾 1. 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，标普纳指刷新日高，中概指数涨幅扩大。 2. 美国据称接近达成协议，部分豁免对墨钢铁关税，美国钢铁股盘后跳水，墨西哥比索一度转涨。 核心观点 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利"，今天股指有所反弹，回补昨天部分跌幅。目前海外不确定性风险较大，同 时最新经济数据显示内需偏弱问题仍存，分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面对股指上行有所抑制，短期 内指数持续上行有较大阻力。不过基本面偏弱且关税影响仍将继续的情况下，市场利好政策托底预期有所 上升，市场底部支撑力量仍较为充足，重点关注6月18日至19日召开的陆家嘴论坛，将发布若干金融政 策。短期内建议观望为主，等待中美贸易谈判的结果。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.75%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1599亿元。 期指方面，IF放量上涨，其余品种均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 IH升贴水率 sour ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China-US relations have eased, driving market sentiment to recover. Coking coal has better rebound elasticity due to previous over - decline in the futures market, while coke rebounds following coking coal but with a weaker amplitude due to downstream price cuts, and the coking profit on the futures market has shrunk. The coking coal and coke futures have basically repaired the discount, and the current basis is in a reasonable range. Although there is rigid support for the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term, there are no conditions for bottom - fishing at present. It is recommended to close short positions at low levels and keep previous short positions at high levels. The industry can focus on hedging opportunities under low basis [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.52% and a historical percentile of 77.99%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1270 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.87% and a historical percentile of 54.55% [1] 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - When steel mills propose price cuts for coke and are worried about price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the J2509 contract of coke. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1350 - 1380 and 50% when it is 1380 - 1410. When the coking coal spot inventory is high and there are concerns about further price drops, for those with long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract of coking coal. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 770 - 800 and 50% when it is 800 - 830 [1] 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On June 11, 2025, compared with June 10, 2025, the warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2358 tons, silicon iron decreased by 20 sheets, and silicon manganese increased by 288 sheets, while the warehouse receipts of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke remained unchanged [2] 4. Bullish Factors - China - US representatives held talks in London, warming market sentiment; mine开工 declined, leading to a temporary mismatch in coking coal supply and demand; and it is the peak season for thermal coal demand, with pit - head prices firm [3] 5. Bearish Factors - An inflection point in hot metal production has emerged, leading to weaker demand for coking coal and coke [4] 6. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices and related spreads and basis have changed. For example, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 8.5 [4] 7. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - From June 4 to June 11, 2025, most coking coal and coke spot prices decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke decreased by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] 8. Other Information - Three rounds of price cuts for coke have been implemented, and there is an expectation of another round of price cuts this month. Throughout the year, the general direction of stable coal production and supply guarantee remains unchanged [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive developments in the China-US trade negotiations, highlighting the agreement framework reached between the two countries, which aims to resolve trade tensions and address export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets [1]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Chinese and US teams have reached a preliminary agreement framework after two days of negotiations, which is expected to be approved by President Trump soon [1]. - The framework adds substantial content to the previously stalled agreement on reducing retaliatory tariffs due to China's export restrictions on key minerals [1]. - The negotiations are characterized as candid, in-depth, and constructive, with both sides exchanging views on trade issues of mutual concern [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the positive news from the trade talks, the A-share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to surpass 3400 points, despite a decrease in trading volume [2][4]. - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Jinli Permanent Magnet announced it has obtained export licenses for the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia, reflecting the potential for increased international trade in the sector [3]. - The automotive parts sector also experienced notable gains, with several companies committing to shorten payment terms to suppliers, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [6]. Group 4: Financial Insights - The article provides insights into the performance of various indices, noting that over 1700 index funds exist, with the highest dividend yield index being the Hong Kong Stock Connect Mainland Financial Index at 9.37% [7][8]. - A total of 48 indices were identified that meet the criteria of having a fund size of at least 2 billion and a dividend yield above 3%, with 16 indices yielding over 6% [9]. Group 5: Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital into the market was reported at 253.86 billion, with the non-bank financial sector seeing the largest inflow [15]. - Specific stocks such as Jianghuai Automobile and Ningde Times attracted significant attention from investors, indicating strong market interest in these companies [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in the coking coal sector, with fluctuations in prices and varying opinions on future performance from different institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures opened at 1345.0 CNY/ton, with a peak of 1365.5 CNY and a low of 1339.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.31% [1]. - The overall performance of coking coal is characterized by a strong upward trend, despite some pressures from supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Guosen Futures noted that the average losses for coking enterprises have slightly increased due to three rounds of price reductions, with a small decline in operating rates and a decrease in supply [1]. - Demand is weak as steel mills reduce production during the off-season, leading to a slight decrease in iron output, which has resulted in an accumulation of coking coal inventory [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures indicated that the recent improvement in US-China relations has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rebound in coking coal prices, although the rebound in coking coal is weaker due to downstream price reductions [2]. - Guosen Futures also highlighted that the current cost of coking coal is between 780-800 CNY, while the cost for coking coal after three rounds of price reductions is between 1310-1330 CNY, indicating a basic recovery in price differentials [2]. - The overall supply of carbon elements remains ample, and the stable iron output above 241 suggests that there is still some support for coal and coke demand [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.06%. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -0.39%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.07%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.11%, and the Oilseeds Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.37%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.12%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 1.74%, and the Plywood Index had the largest decline of -1.93% [1][3]. 3. Summary by Index Type 3.1 Comprehensive and Sector Indices | Index Name | Today's Close | Yesterday's Close | Points Change | Daily Change | Annualized Return Rate | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2400.26 | 2398.92 | 1.33 | 0.06% | -12.75% | 14.01% | -0.91 | | Precious Metal Index NHPMI | 1238.66 | 1239.55 | -0.89 | -0.07% | 24.46% | 18.46% | 1.32 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3443.70 | 3437.64 | 6.06 | 0.18% | -19.41% | 15.77% | -1.23 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6036.80 | 6060.55 | -23.75 | -0.39% | -15.83% | 15.45% | -1.02 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1598.39 | 1590.08 | 8.30 | 0.52% | -22.88% | 17.00% | -1.35 | | Non - ferrous Metal Index NHNF | 1633.92 | 1638.83 | -4.92 | -0.30% | -11.71% | 14.36% | -0.82 | | Black Index NHFI | 2303.82 | 2309.83 | -6.02 | -0.26% | -27.09% | 21.50% | -1.26 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1063.47 | 1060.97 | 2.50 | 0.24% | -3.27% | 9.99% | -0.33 | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1106.93 | 1104.77 | 2.16 | 0.20% | -1.87% | 13.26% | -0.14 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1003.48 | 992.49 | 10.99 | 1.11% | -5.49% | 30.62% | -0.18 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 930.36 | 927.57 | 2.79 | 0.30% | -2.81% | 20.20% | -0.14 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1011.08 | 1009.75 | 1.33 | 0.13% | -3.88% | 18.24% | -0.21 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 919.14 | 920.24 | -1.10 | -0.12% | -5.79% | 21.20% | -0.27 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 713.42 | 716.04 | -2.63 | -0.37% | -5.49% | 15.66% | -0.35 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1190.91 | 1189.88 | 1.02 | 0.09% | -0.40% | 12.02% | -0.03 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 874.82 | 873.31 | 1.51 | 0.17% | -0.86% | 9.54% | -0.09% | [3] 3.2 Single - Variety Indices - The single - variety index with the largest increase was the Fuel Oil Index, rising 1.74%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was the Plywood Index, falling -1.93% [3][4]. 3.3 Other Information - Some single - variety indices also showed changes in their positions. For example, the position change ratios of some products such as soda ash, eggs, and iron ore are provided, but the data presentation is incomplete [4]. - There are also some industry chain diagrams for parts of the energy - chemical and black sectors, showing the daily changes in the single - variety indices of related products [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The external market is strong under the expectation of China-US talks, and the market expects the data in the June USDA report to be basically stable. As it gradually enters the critical period of US soybean planting, the market is more sensitive to weather impacts. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply pressure in the near - term makes the rebound of the M09 contract lack sustainable momentum. Under the background of the strong external market, it is difficult to short - sell the near - term contract alone. Therefore, it is more appropriate to go long on the far - term contract when the long - term logic of the far - term contract is not falsified [4] - There are multiple factors supporting the far - term contract, including the cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks, the bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation, and the support from the Brazilian export premium [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1746 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.309 [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks is favorable for the far - term contract [9] - The bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation [9] - The support from the Brazilian export premium on the far - term contract price [9] Bearish Factors - The large supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter will keep the spot basis weak, while the futures market is strong before the weather - related speculation [6] - The estimated soybean arrivals are 11 million tons in the subsequent part of June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US talks needs to be monitored in the fourth quarter [6] - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - term, the rigid demand is limited. With the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and the China - Canada trade relationship should be focused on [6] Price and Spread - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) and rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3068, up 8 (0.26%) [7][10] - The price differences between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For instance, the M01 - 05 spread is 336, up 4 [11] Import Cost and Profit - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans (23% tariff), Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4506.8065 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily, and the import profit is - 692.2415 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily [12]