Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a clear recovery direction for brands, with a focus on order restoration in the manufacturing sector. The domestic demand is showing a steady recovery, while external demand is under short-term pressure due to export declines [4][5]. - The retail performance of brands has been improving since the third quarter, with monthly growth rates gradually increasing from a low of 1.8% in July to 6.3% in October. The fourth quarter is expected to continue this trend due to seasonal demand and consumption promotion policies [5][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic demand is on a steady recovery path, with retail sales in the textile and apparel sector growing by 3.5% year-on-year to 1205.3 billion yuan from January to October 2025. The overall retail sales for the same period increased by 4.3% to 41.2 trillion yuan [4][13]. - Export pressures are evident, with textile and apparel exports in October 2025 amounting to $22.26 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12.6% [4][16]. 2. Hong Kong Sports Sector - The sports sector experienced a slight weakening in sales in Q3 2025, with brands like Anta and FILA showing low single-digit growth. However, other brands saw growth rates between 45-50% [4][24]. - Li Ning's overall sales decreased in Q3, while its youth brand maintained double-digit growth. Xtep showed stable performance with low single-digit growth in its main brand [4][24]. 3. Textile Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector faced disruptions due to tariffs in Q3 2025, with companies like Huayi and Yueyuan reporting revenue declines of 0.3% and 6.1%, respectively. However, a gradual recovery is expected as tariff impacts stabilize [4][29]. - The upstream textile sector showed steady growth, with companies like Weixing and Xin'ao reporting revenue increases of 1% year-on-year [4][29]. 4. Men's and Women's Apparel - Men's apparel showed stable revenue growth, but increased marketing and channel expansion costs pressured profits. Women's apparel is showing signs of recovery, with brands like Ge Li Si experiencing significant profit improvements [4][22]. - The report notes that women's apparel companies generally saw single-digit revenue declines, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to 2024 [4][22]. 5. Children's Apparel - Children's apparel brands reported steady revenue growth, but increased expenses led to weaker profit performance. Companies like Semir and Jiama reported revenue growth of 5% and 3%, respectively, but faced significant profit declines [4][22]. 6. Home Textiles - The home textile sector showed varied performance, with brands like Luolai and Shuixing exceeding expectations due to successful product launches. Luolai's revenue grew by 6% year-on-year, while Shuixing's grew by 11% [4][22]. 7. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that improving domestic demand is a key investment theme for 2025, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands and recovery opportunities in the textile manufacturing sector. Recommended stocks include sports brands like Bosideng, Anta, and Li Ning, as well as home textile companies like Luolai and Shuixing [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown improvement in its operational efficiency, particularly with the gradual ramp-up of its Thailand project, which has enhanced its overseas production capabilities [6]. - The financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 590 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of 73 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [6]. - The company is focusing on its core business of molecular sieves, increasing R&D investments, and expanding application scenarios to enhance market share and profitability [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 819 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 98 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [5]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 29.5% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.5% [5]. - The average price of formed molecular sieve products is expected to decrease from 26,700 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton in 2025 [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is entering an upward trajectory after hitting a low in Q4 2023, with significant growth observed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [5][18]. - The brokerage sector has seen a shift from "customer acquisition" to "existing customer management and institutional deepening," focusing on creating a comprehensive product matrix across various investment types [5][29]. - The report identifies three categories of brokers that have outperformed: those with low valuations and improving fundamentals, those involved in mergers and acquisitions, and those driven by innovative business models [5][12]. Group 2 - The report indicates that the performance of H-shares has outpaced A-shares due to a stronger Hong Kong market, lower valuations, and accelerated interconnectivity between capital markets [11][12]. - As of November 14, 2025, the brokerage index has increased by 4.29%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 19.06%, indicating a significant underperformance of the brokerage sector compared to the broader market [11][12]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.41 times, which is at the 47th percentile since 2018, suggesting that the sector is undervalued [5]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management as a core support for brokerage businesses, driven by increased asset allocation from residents into the equity market [5][34]. - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit directly from the increasing attractiveness of the equity market, with specific recommendations for companies like GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [5]. - The report outlines that the brokerage sector's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has increased by 66% year-on-year, with significant contributions from brokerage and interest income [18][34]. Group 4 - The report discusses the internationalization of brokerage services, driven by client demand, with major firms establishing overseas subsidiaries and focusing on cross-border services [5][18]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing a "counter-cyclical" asset allocation strategy, with a continued increase in equity asset allocation expected in 2025 [5][18]. - The report highlights that the brokerage industry is positioned for a recovery in public fund profitability, with the potential for increased allocations from public funds to the non-bank financial sector [5][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stabilization of the residential balance sheet suggests a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, but the speed of improvement will determine the duration of this bottoming process [3][4] - The report highlights that since 2021, China's housing prices have cumulatively declined by 37%, which is longer than the average decline of 34% over 6.1 years in 42 countries, indicating that while the price drop is significant, the adjustment period in China is still relatively short [22][7] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the industry, including the stabilization of the residential asset-liability ratio, a decrease in the housing price-to-income ratio, improving rental yields, a bullish stock market potentially boosting wealth effects, and a deep clearing of supply-side issues [3][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook predicts a structural bottoming out, with opportunities arising for quality housing and commercial real estate, driven by policies focusing on demand recovery and high-quality development [3][4] - The report anticipates that the core cities will stabilize sooner due to healthier supply-demand relationships, with a forecast for sales volume and price declines to narrow in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, recommending specific companies in the quality housing and commercial real estate segments, as well as undervalued firms and property management companies [3][4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The average absolute return of the 76 competitive projects that were unlocked in 2025 reached 31.61%, surpassing the industry average by approximately 15.90 percentage points[6] - 85.53% of the projects had a positive absolute return, indicating a significant profit effect[6] - The average price discount rate for competitive projects in 2025 was 13.99%, slightly higher than the previous year[10] Group 2: Subscription Market Dynamics - The average subscription premium rate increased to 10.17%, up by 2.17 percentage points from 2024, indicating heightened competition for quality projects[30] - The proportion of projects issued at the base price dropped to 11.90%, marking a new low since the new regulations were implemented[28] - Institutional investors showed differentiated strategies, with state-owned and public funds focusing on large-cap companies, while private equity targeted small to mid-cap firms[32] Group 3: Project Characteristics - As of October 2025, 63% of the competitive projects had a total market value of less than 10 billion yuan, with 34% in the range of 5 to 10 billion yuan[73] - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors accounted for 42% of the competitive projects, highlighting a strategic focus on these areas[73] - 66% of the competitive projects outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with an average outperformance of 57.53 percentage points[88] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The number of projects approved and registered in 2025 doubled compared to 2024, indicating a faster review process[67] - The expected discount space for popular projects may further compress, with the competitive benchmark discount rate likely to remain around 10%[6] - Risks include potential delays in issuance and review processes, changes in market conditions, and fluctuations in secondary market stock prices[6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a non-typical economic recovery in 2026, driven by confidence rebuilding and policy support, with a potential for profit improvement in the latter half of the year [9][10] - Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of US-China tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving economic benefits, suggesting that 2026 will mark a significant acceleration in reform efforts [9][10] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The report outlines a two-phase bull market strategy, with 2025 characterized as "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and 2026 potentially entering "Bull Market 2.0" with broader market participation [10][11] - It predicts that 2026 will see a rebound in profitability across the A-share market, with expected growth rates of 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 for net profits [10][11] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" is expected to be marked by a shift towards cyclical stocks and a resurgence in technology-driven sectors [10][11] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market outlook for 2026 suggests a low-interest environment with ongoing asset allocation adjustments, although the attractiveness of bond assets may be limited [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of timing in duration strategies, with a focus on credit certainty as a key investment theme [12][13] - Potential risks include a shift towards a more bearish market due to inflationary pressures and fiscal policy changes [12][13] Group 4: Shipping and Shipbuilding Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, driven by rising second-hand ship prices surpassing new build prices, signaling a potential supercycle [20][21] - Historical trends show that improvements in shipping market conditions typically lead to delayed increases in shipbuilding stock prices, suggesting a similar pattern may occur [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil tanker rental rates and their impact on shipbuilding market dynamics [20][21] Group 5: Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable municipal environmental profits, improved cash flows, and adjustments in water pricing, highlighting opportunities in environmental assets [19][21] - The report suggests that the dual carbon goals and AI integration will drive growth in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies involved in waste management and renewable energy [19][21] - The focus on municipal environmental projects is expected to enhance the attractiveness of certain stocks within the sector [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this period, but are expected to decline next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds shortened this period. The issuance progress of new bonds is still slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased. The spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 285.066 billion yuan/242.792 billion yuan (last period was 91.607 billion yuan/-33.641 billion yuan), and next period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23), the expected issuance/net financing is 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 13.90 years, shorter than 14.57 years in the previous period. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 87.8% and 93.7% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 90.3% and 95.6%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.9%/97.2% and 90.9%/98.0%, and in 2023 it was 91.6%/94.4% and 94.3%/95.9%. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan (701.6 billion yuan in November and 11.7 billion yuan in December), including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds (343.9 billion yuan in November and 3.6 billion yuan in December). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 1897.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 2405.4 billion yuan and 106.8 billion yuan. [3] - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 4 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 5.1 billion yuan and 0.28 billion yuan respectively. As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1291.8 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1996.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.8%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 101.6 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of November 14, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.60BP and 22.19BP respectively, narrowing by 4.98BP and widening by 2.00BP compared with November 7, 2025, and were at the 25.80% and 87.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.71%, a decrease compared with 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Jilin, and Qingdao were better than the national average. [3] - Currently, the spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. [3]

Main Points - The report highlights three main investment themes: market recovery and supply-demand balance favoring leading companies, the role of AI in enhancing efficiency and generating secondary revenue, and the complexity of tourism investment driven by resource endowment and product refinement [5][6][17]. Group 1: Market Recovery and Supply-Demand Balance - The hotel market is expected to see a slight recovery, with average daily rates (ADR) showing positive trends [18][25]. - Luxury, mid-range, and economy hotels are experiencing a rebound after supply adjustments, with an increase in chain hotel ratios and mid-range hotel market share [7][26]. - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is anticipated to significantly reduce import costs for businesses, enhancing the attractiveness of the region for tourism and hospitality investments [7]. Group 2: AI Applications in Recruitment - AI applications in recruitment are not solely focused on cost reduction but are increasingly aimed at generating additional revenue through enhanced efficiency [5][45]. - AI technologies are transforming recruitment processes, including job description generation, resume screening, and video interview analysis, leading to improved matching and efficiency [46][50]. - The recruitment service market is expanding rapidly, with high growth potential in the mid-to-high-end online recruitment sector [50]. Group 3: Tourism Investment Dynamics - The tourism investment landscape is complex, requiring a combination of resource endowment and product refinement to navigate economic cycles successfully [6][17]. - The luxury cruise market is gaining traction among older demographics, with high-quality experiences driving demand despite higher pricing [8]. - Policy changes promoting school holidays and flexible work arrangements are expected to boost service consumption, particularly in the tourism sector [8][11]. Group 4: Consumer Trends and Market Potential - The service consumption market is showing structural vitality, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing goods consumption [11]. - The "new silver-haired" demographic is emerging as a significant consumer group, with a growing focus on travel and leisure spending [68]. - The domestic tourism market is recovering steadily, with a projected 56.2 billion domestic trips in 2024, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly emphasizing the importance of smart vehicles as a key investment theme for 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show highlights the democratization of intelligent driving and the deep integration of smart cockpits with large models, indicating that intelligence is no longer an added value but a necessity for market entry [2]. - The report suggests focusing on technology-leading companies such as Tesla and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance and low valuations like Kobot, Xingyu, and Jifeng [2]. - The report also notes the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending continued attention to SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. Industry Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November were 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [2]. - The traditional and new energy raw material price indices have increased recently, with traditional car raw material prices rising by 0.7% week-on-week and 1.8% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry this week was 517.096 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.15% [2]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 7684.80 points, down 2.11% for the week, which is a greater decline than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. - A total of 112 stocks in the industry rose, while 156 fell, with the largest gainers being Langbo Technology, Yingli Automobile, and Xinpeng Co., which rose by 19.6%, 17.6%, and 14.4% respectively [2]. - Key events include the upcoming Guangzhou Auto Show, which will showcase the acceleration of electrification, intelligence, and product diversification in the automotive market [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies that exemplify the trend of intelligence, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It also highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise integration, suggesting attention to SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, and Changan Automobile [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and New Spring, are also recommended [2].

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 16 日 各品牌陆续发布双十一战报，九阳 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数上涨 1.1%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 1.1%。重点公司方面，九阳股份（26.6%）、莱克电气（12.2%）、海信视 像（7.1%）领涨；三花智控（-12.3%）、荣泰健康（-2.6%）、科沃斯（-1.5%）领跌。 ⚫ 行业动态：1）石头科技发布双十一战报：登顶清洁电器品牌 TOP1，扫地机市场份额 TOP1，达到 34.75%，洗地机市场份额 TOP2，达到 25.02%，净销售额同比增长 408.52%。吸尘器净销售额同比增长 2295.52%。2）九阳豆业"哈基米豆浆"引领热 潮：九阳豆业推出名为"哈基米南北绿豆豆浆"的植物饮料并在消费市场掀起热潮，九 阳豆浆旗舰店所属公司为杭州 ...