Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall industrial data last week was average, with the apparent demand for steel increasing month-on-month and inventory declining. However, due to the upcoming national high school entrance examination and college entrance examination, construction in many cities was affected, weakening spot demand. The terminal real estate market was a drag, and combined with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot-rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, a total trading volume of 9,514,050 lots, and a total open interest of 3,170,785 lots [2] - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan, a decline of 1.13%, a total trading volume of 3,363,117 lots, and a total open interest of 1,552,234 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 702.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan, an increase of 0.50%, a total trading volume of 2,120,072 lots, and a total open interest of 716,254 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 726.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.5 yuan, a decline of 9.19%, a total trading volume of 3,455,596 lots, and a total open interest of 634,111 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1308.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan, a decline of 4.11%, a total trading volume of 134,599 lots, and a total open interest of 59,538 lots [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated weakly, the market sentiment was poor, and both futures and spot prices declined in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2890 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3120 (-60) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3170 (-90) yuan/ton [4] - Macroscopically, the plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing. The US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation [4] - Industrially, last week's rebar production was 2.26 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, apparent demand was 2.49 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons, rebar mill inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, social inventory was 3.95 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons, and total inventory was 5.81 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons, mill inventory was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons, social inventory was 2.58 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons, total inventory was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and apparent demand was 3.27 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [6][7] - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. Among them, the steel industry's profit from January to April was 16.92 billion yuan [10] - The US Federal Court on May 28, 2025, blocked the tariff policy announced by former President Trump on April 2, 2025, and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US was an overstep of authority [10] - The plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing, emphasizing key tasks such as accelerating the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectifying "involutionary" competition, and strengthening competition supervision and law enforcement [10] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, smelting profits of long-process steel mills, short-process electric furnace profits in the East China region, blast furnace operating rates of 247 national steel mills, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, rebar and hot-rolled coil production, social and mill inventories, total inventories, and apparent consumption [8][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to the smallest increase in the US core PCE in over four years. Concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, and the market's risk appetite is cautious. [3][4][11] - In May, the monthly output of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected. However, the supply is expected to recover strongly in June, with an estimated increase to 590,200 tons. The demand side shows strong resilience during the off - season, but there is a lack of continuous new export orders. [4][11][14] - Overall, the strong current fundamentals persist, and the inventory inflection point has yet to arrive, causing the decline in zinc prices to be impeded. However, with the strong recovery of refined zinc supply in June and the expected seasonal decline in consumption, the supply - demand balance is tilting marginally, and a bearish view on zinc prices is maintained. [4][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc on May 24 was 22,185 yuan/ton, and on June 2, it was 22,225 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc on May 24 was 2,712.5 dollars/ton, and on June 2, it was 2,693 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.18 to 8.25. [5] - The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,763 tons, the inventory of LME decreased by 15,350 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. [5] 2. Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2507, rose rapidly on Monday evening last week due to rumors of an extended maintenance at a large smelter in Guangxi. However, the actual impact was lower than expected, and the price gave back its gains, ending at 22,225 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.05%. [6] - LME zinc's price center slightly moved up along the 5 - day moving average, but faced significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average, ending at 2,629.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. It stabilized and rebounded weakly on June 2. [6] - In the spot market, the supply of goods remained tight, and traders held up prices. The spot premium increased slightly in the first half of the week but stabilized in the second half as downstream procurement declined. [7] - As of May 30, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,350 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,763 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. [8] - In terms of macro - factors, the US Federal Court initially blocked Trump's tariff policy, but the decision was later suspended. The Fed is cautious about rate cuts, and the market still anticipates a rate cut in September. Trump plans to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31. [9] - In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3% year - on - year in April. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending May 30, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,600 yuan/metal ton and 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton and no change for the latter. [13] - The refined zinc output in May was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The output in June is expected to be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.43%. [14] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates. [16][17][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas shipment volume of iron ore decreased week - on - week last week but remained at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume increased week - on - week. On the demand side, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills recently, the molten iron output continued to decline. As the demand for steel products entered the off - season and the molten iron output decreased, it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2961 | - 19 | - 0.64 | 9514050 | 3170785 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3076 | - 35 | - 1.13 | 3363117 | 1552234 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 702.0 | 3.5 | 0.50 | 2120072 | 716254 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 726.0 | - 73.5 | - 9.19 | 3455596 | 634111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1308.0 | - 56.0 | - 4.11 | 134599 | 59538 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Recently, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills, the molten iron output continued to decline. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.22 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.52 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.06 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,800 tons [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week but was at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, and the arrival volume increased week - on - week. The total global iron ore shipment volume last week was 3.1887 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 159,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,500 tons. The total Australian shipment volume was 2.0132 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,500 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7812 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,200 tons. The total Brazilian shipment volume was 776,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.9708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,100 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7425 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,500 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 758,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.46958 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,250 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 338,780 tons, a decrease of 4,410 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On the 25th local time, US President Trump said that the EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9th, and he had agreed to this request. Trump said that the conversation with the EU on tariff issues was "very pleasant." On the 23rd, Trump posted on social media that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1st [9]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to March. Among them, the steel industry made a profit of 1.692 billion yuan from January to April [9]. - The US Federal Court on May 28th local time blocked the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on April 2nd (Liberation Day) from taking effect and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US exceeded his authority [9]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the iron and steel industry, including the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends, steel mill profit situations, steel production and inventory data, and iron ore shipment, arrival, and inventory data [8][10][12][14].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk preference is under pressure, and the fundamentals remain weak. The output of primary lead will decrease slightly month - on - month, but the output of secondary lead smelters will recover, with a significant expected month - on - month increase. The supply pressure will increase marginally. The consumption side remains in the off - season, and due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some enterprises are on vacation. There is a mismatch between supply and demand, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, the cost support is solid, and there may be fluctuations near the lower edge of the shock box [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From May 26th to June 2nd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,795 yuan/ton to 16,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 1,994 dollars/ton to 1,981 dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.42 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,928 tons to 46,500 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 9,875 tons to 284,150 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons to 4.94 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 continued to decline in a volatile manner, breaking through the lower edge of the shock box on Thursday night and ending at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%. The LME lead price fluctuated sideways, ending at 1,963.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. In the spot market, on May 30th, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 16,535 - 16,565 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506/2507 contract. Downstream enterprises were mostly on the sidelines, with some willing to buy at low prices, while others had no purchasing plans due to the upcoming holiday or a pessimistic outlook on the market [5] Industry News - As of the week of May 30th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 35 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month. In May, the refined lead output was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is expected that the output in June will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The output of secondary refined lead in May was 222,500 tons, far lower than expected, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. It is expected that the output in June will recover to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, output, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the weak US economic and employment data lead to unclear demand and interest - rate cut expectations. There are also fiscal concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds, which will intensify macro - market volatility [2][7]. - Fundamentally, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has certain resilience. With production based on sales, consumption remains stable, and there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand for the time being [2][7]. - Given the macro - uncertainty and stable fundamentals, the aluminum price is expected to continue to show a range - bound performance [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price decreased from 2466 yuan/ton on May 23, 2025, to 2448.5 yuan/ton on May 30, 2025, a drop of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 20055 dollars/ton to 19925 dollars/ton, a decline of 130 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14375 tons to 372525 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 6603 tons to 51819 tons [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 316.6 yuan/ton to 16987.23 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit decreased by 300.6 yuan/ton to 3326.77 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - market is affected by Trump's uncertain tariff policy, weak US economic and employment data, and fiscal concerns about US Treasury bonds. The fundamentals show stable supply and resilient consumption, and the aluminum price is expected to range - bound [7]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the casting aluminum alloy futures would be launched on June 10, 2025 [8]. - On May 14, 2025, the environmental impact report of the second - phase 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Power Co., Ltd. was approved [8]. 3.5 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical - trade seasonal spot premium, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [9][10][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [3][6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [3][6]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [3][8]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 771.80 | -5.50 | -0.71 | 181,246 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 768.02 | -0.87 | -0.11 | 47,430 | 205,424 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3313.10 | -44.60 | -1.33 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8218 | -62 | -0.75 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 8192 | -19 | -0.23 | 379,350 | 3,425,600 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.08 | -0.56 | -1.68 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [6]. - On May 30, Trump announced raising the tariff on imported steel from 25% to 50%. On May 31, the European Commission expressed regret over the US's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and stated that the EU was prepared to take countermeasures. If a mutually acceptable solution cannot be reached, the EU's existing and additional measures will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier if necessary. The first meeting between the leaders of the US and Germany on June 5 may lead to Germany being "ambushed." The escalation of the trade dispute between the US and Germany may impact European exporters, especially in the automotive and machinery manufacturing industries, and also affect the business layout of US technology companies in Europe [7]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - The minutes of the Fed's meeting from May 6 - 7 showed that Fed policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty facing the economy was higher than before. They were cautious about interest rate cuts and preferred to wait for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer before taking action. Moreover, almost all policymakers expressed concerns about the long-term inflationary impact of tariffs, which weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. The Russian delegation was satisfied with the results of the second - round negotiations and submitted a peace memorandum to Ukraine. Ukraine demanded an unconditional ceasefire in the airspace, sea area, and on land for at least 30 days. There is a possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries in Istanbul, but it is too early to discuss the meeting time. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [8][9]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [9]. - This week, key data to watch include the US May non - farm payrolls data, ADP data, May ISM non - manufacturing index, and the eurozone April PPI data. In terms of events, pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech and the eurozone central bank's interest rate decision [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The US April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%, the smallest increase in more than four years. The "super core inflation indicator" - the core service cost excluding housing and energy - also fell to a four - year low and had its first month - on - month decline since April 2020. It is expected that as the impact of tariffs becomes apparent, the growth rate of commodity prices will accelerate in May, especially in June [10]. - The revised value of the US first - quarter GDP shrank 0.2% on an annualized basis, slightly better than the previously announced initial value of a 0.3% contraction, but still indicating that the US economy contracted at the beginning of the year. The growth rate of consumer spending was significantly revised down, reaching the weakest growth rate in nearly two years. Corporate profits plunged 2.9%, the largest decline since 2020. The core PCE was slightly revised down to 3.4% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged by 14,000 to 240,000, reaching the highest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million, also hitting the highest level since November 2021 [10]. - The US April durable goods orders plunged 6.3% month - on - month, and the core capital goods orders had the largest decline since October last year [10]. - French inflation unexpectedly fell to a five - year low, and the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in June soared [10]. - In April, the US commodity import volume decreased to $276.097 billion, a month - on - month plunge of 19.8%, the largest decline on record. This led to a narrowing of the trade deficit to $87.6 billion, far lower than the market expectation of $143 billion [11]. - Data showed that in April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US rose to 111.7 tons, the highest monthly level since at least 2012 [11]. - On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government published the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in the Gazette, meaning that the ordinance has officially become law, further improving Hong Kong's digital asset activity regulatory framework [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - **Table 2: Changes in Precious Metal ETF Holdings (in tons)** | ETF | Gold Total Holdings | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/23 | 2025/5/16 | 2024/5/9 | Change from Last Week | Change from Last Month | Change from Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | 930.20 | 922.46 | 944.26 | 832.21 | 7.74 | -14.06 | 97.99 | | Ishares | Silver Holdings | 14303.75 | 14217.50 | 14015.31 | 12869.86 | 86.25 | 288.44 | 1433.89 | [12][13] - **Table 3: Changes in CFTC Non - commercial Positions** | Gold Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 234087 | 59903 | 174184 | 10203 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 238062 | 74081 | 163981 | 2772 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 238191 | 76982 | 161209 | -1288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 237445 | 74948 | 162497 | - | | Silver Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 73240 | 20228 | 53012 | 2970 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 70891 | 20849 | 50042 | 2288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 67944 | 20190 | 47754 | -1498 | | 2025 - 04 - 29 | 70335 | 21083 | 49252 | - | [14] - There are also multiple data charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, price differences, and ratios of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and various economic indicators such as the US inflation rate, dollar index, and Fed's balance sheet size [15 - 41].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 成本支撑与复产博弈 氧化铝震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端几内亚矿业和地质部长在国家电视台上公开 宣布将撤销几内亚129家矿业公司的勘探许可证， 其中涉及7个铝土矿项目，本次撤销暂时对在采矿 山没有直接影响，不过几内亚雨季临近，矿石供应 或有季节性减少。供应端当前开工产能较上周并 未明显增量，但随着氧化铝价格上涨利润增加，企 业生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: Lithium prices hit new lows, with frequent shutdowns and production cuts by upstream lithium salt plants, and a continuous decline in high - frequency weekly production data. Downstream pessimism is strong, with only rigid demand procurement in the spot market and limited pre - holiday inventory build - up by enterprises. Despite production contraction, inventory remains high [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber decreased to varying degrees [4]. - Market: The main contract had a large - scale position transfer, with a reduction of over 50,000 lots during the week. The 7 - 9 spread quickly converged and was close to par, and the monthly spread was insufficient to cover the bag - changing cost. As of Friday, although the main contract closed higher, there were no signs of increased positions and trading volume, and a bottom could not be confirmed technically [4]. - Future outlook: Issues such as environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 110 | 110 | 0 | 0% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | CNY/ton | | USD/CNY exchange rate | 7.195 | 7.184 | 0.01 | 0.15% | - | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 5.98 | 6.01 | - 0.03 | - 0.50% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0 | 6.05 | - 6.05 | - 100% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 5.98 | 6.03 | - 0.04 | - 0.70% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) | 6.36 | 6.45 | - 0.09 | - 1.40% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) | 6.97 | 6.97 | 0 | 0% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 94,658 | 92,391 | 2,267 | 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.09 | 3.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.64% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 21.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.48% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 14.85 | 14.65 | 0.20 | 1.37% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 12.90 | 13.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.77% | CNY 10,000/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulation and delivery: As of May 30, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 33,457 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 CNY/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 261,000 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of May 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 1,539 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. Affected by the falling lithium prices, upstream lithium salt plants frequently had information about maintenance and production cuts. However, salt lakes were still ramping up production, and the supply contraction failed to effectively drive inventory reduction, indicating an oversupply situation. The lithium ore port inventory was abundant, and price recovery would quickly stimulate supply elasticity [8]. - Import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. Among them, 20,200 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; 6,850 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. In April, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. Among them, 15,500 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. Although Chile's total lithium carbonate exports increased in April, the scale of exports to China decreased, which may drag down the import volume of lithium carbonate in China in May. In addition, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly this period, but currently, the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it has no continuous reference value for now [9]. - In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 298,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Recently, a mining company in Mali, Africa, said that due to market regulatory disturbances, the shipment of its spodumene concentrate was blocked. Currently, the company has signed an underwriting agreement with Hainan Mining. Overall, although the shipment of some lithium mines is blocked, the overall shipment scale of African lithium mines is still increasing [10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of May 30, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,984 tons, with an operating rate of 58.05%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,083 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 46.29%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. In terms of prices, as of May 30, the prices of ternary materials weakened slightly. The price of ternary 6 - series decreased from 14.08 CNY 10,000/ton to 13.99 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of 8 - series decreased from 14.59 CNY 10,000/ton to 14.49 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.31 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.23 CNY 10,000/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 3.25 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.145 CNY 10,000/ton. Overall, the slowdown in the growth of the power terminal suppresses the prices of cathode materials. However, with the increase in the supply of lithium iron phosphate, the spot inventory of lithium iron phosphate has decreased slightly, indicating that downstream battery factories have some signs of restocking after a period of active inventory reduction. The market expects the production of cathode materials in June to be flat overall, and the prices of cathode materials are still expected to be weak in the off - season of demand [11]. - New energy vehicles: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 4.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the perspective of weekly consumption growth, the consumption growth of new energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the sales growth rate decreased from 32% at the beginning of the month to 31% this period. From the perspective of consumption structure, since the new - replacement policy has shown fatigue in tapping the potential consumption of residents, the consumption growth of passenger vehicles may be difficult to support the continuous growth of the industry. Currently, the policy focus is gradually shifting from passenger vehicles to heavy - duty trucks, electric boats, etc. Multiple departments have issued documents saying that they will increase the purchase subsidy for heavy - duty trucks, transportation, and other industries. According to the information from the Passenger Car Association, Beijing will issue an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle indicators [12]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 94,658 tons, an increase of 2,267 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 33,401 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 61,257 tons, an increase of 3,409 tons from the previous period. Overall, although the weekly production of lithium salt increased, the inventory accumulation was much higher than the production increase. There was some restocking behavior by downstream enterprises before the holiday, but the supply side was resilient, and the inventory reduction of upstream enterprises was weak, dragging down the inventory reduction process [13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook Lack of driving factors for price increases, lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The issues of environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [14] 3.3 Industry News - A 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou will start trial production this year. According to the news from the Dalong Economic Development Zone, workers are currently carrying out operations such as factory building decoration, greening, and construction of auxiliary facilities at the construction site of the second - phase project of Guizhou Jiashang New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.'s 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park. The project is expected to complete equipment installation and commissioning in October and start trial production of the production line. After reaching full production, it can produce more than 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials per year [15]. - Longpan Technology plans to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan by 369.7056 million CNY. On May 29, Longpan Technology announced that it plans to use 80% of the funds raised from the issuance of H - shares to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan. Changzhou Liyuan plans to use the increased capital to increase the capital of its subsidiary LBM NEW ENERGY (AP) PTE. LTD. by 14 million USD. This capital increase constitutes a related - party transaction and needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review [15]. - Tianqi Lithium's 26,000 - ton lithium carbonate project is located in Jiangsu. Recently, the Zhangjiagang Municipal People's Government has publicized the environmental assessment of the 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tianqi Lithium New Energy Materials (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. The total investment is 207.4845 million CNY, and the construction scale is large. Relying on the existing lithium hydroxide production workshop and lithium hydroxide warehouse, a new carbon dioxide tank area will be added. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 26,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [15]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures price of lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide, the price trend of imported lithium concentrate (6%), the production of lithium carbonate, etc., with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][22]

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...