Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds pre - positioning long positions for 2026. Current support factors go beyond pure financial drivers. The decline in gasoline blending profit makes the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has expanded to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, improving PX production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand is falling, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a negative impact on PTA. Although PTA consumption remains high, mainstream polyester factories are conducting early overhauls and selling PTA raw materials, causing the basis to weaken rapidly [2]. - For ethylene glycol, overseas ethylene glycol unit overhaul plans are increasing. Two sets of MEG units in Taiwan, China, with a total capacity of 720,000 tons per year, plan to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol units have started scheduled overhauls. The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports remains at 730,000 tons. Against the background of the continuous decline in coal prices, ethylene glycol prices lack effective support. With the successive commissioning of new units, market supply pressure is increasing. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and ethylene glycol prices may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 438.8 yuan/barrel on January 16th to 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19th, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread increased from 1,829.2 yuan/ton to 1,851.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.17 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5736 to 1.5824, an increase of 0.0088 [2]. - CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 879, and the PX - naphtha spread also remained unchanged at 331. The PTA main - contract futures price increased from 5,018 yuan/ton to 5,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 4,960 yuan/ton to 4,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee increased from 309.6 yuan/ton to 321.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.8 yuan/ton. The PTA on - paper processing fee increased from 367.6 yuan/ton to 381.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.8 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from - 67 to - 63, an increase of 4. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 104,318 to 104,312, a decrease of 6 [2]. - The MEG main - contract futures price decreased from 3,796 yuan/ton to 3,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 153.29 yuan/ton to - 159.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,665 yuan/ton to 3,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The MEG main - contract basis increased from - 128 to - 120, an increase of 8 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.82%. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.63%. The MEG start - up rate decreased from 60.82% to 60.58%, a decrease of 0.24%. The polyester load decreased from 86.61% to 85.83%, a decrease of 0.78% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Filament - The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6,690. The POY cash flow increased from - 29 to - 28, an increase of 1. The price of FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6,920. The FDY cash flow increased from - 299 to - 298, an increase of 1. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7,830 to 7,850, an increase of 20. The DTY cash flow increased from - 89 to - 68, an increase of 21. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 46%, an increase of 6% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased from 6,405 to 6,450, an increase of 45. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 36 to 82, an increase of 46. The polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 73% to 57%, a decrease of 16% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright polyester chip increased from 5,735 to 5,740, an increase of 5. The polyester chip cash flow increased from - 84 to - 78, an increase of 6. The polyester chip sales rate increased from 83% to 84%, an increase of 1% [2]. Device Maintenance Information - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance as planned tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 苏鲁现货价格分化，原木未脱离震荡区间 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苏鲁现货价格分化，原木未脱离震荡区间 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据木联调研，本周(2026/1/3-1/9)，新西兰港口原木离港发运共计9船35万方，环比减少1船1万方。其中，新西兰直发中国8船30万方，环 比增加2船8万方。。 | | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，1月5日-1月11日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为5.75万方，较上周增加1.77%。 | | | 库存 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，截至1月9日，国内针叶原木总库存为269万方，较上周增加 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2026-1-19 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场各期限走势分化，30年期延续弱势，其余各期限反弹修复，市场情绪回暖。周初海外地缘政治风险升温，全球权益市场波动加剧，叠加国内 12月通胀数据低于预期，市场对经济复苏斜率担忧再起，资金涌入固收资产避险，推动期债上行。后半周后市场关注点转向国内政策可能加码的预期。一方面， 市场传言央行可能通过结构性工具引导宽信用；另一方面，部分投资者担忧财政政策发力可能带来供给压力，多空双方在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复权衡。 周四（1月15日），央行联合相关部门召开会议，宣布推出一篮子货币政策措施，主要聚焦于结构性工具与流动性支持的结合，旨在引导金融机构加大对重点领 域和薄弱环节的支持，同时维持市场流动性合理充裕。具体举措包括：1.创设专项再贷款工具：新增2000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，利率较同类工具 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: The supply outlook is neutral to bearish. Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but high inventory and a lower export reference price have increased palm oil exports. The full - scale auction of imported soybeans on January 13th, with expected delivery in March, has alleviated the short - term soybean shortage. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed will drop significantly before March 1st, and Australian rapeseed is also expected to enter commercial crushing [3]. - Demand: The demand outlook is neutral. Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has not yet picked up, and the news of Indonesia delaying B50 is bearish for palm oil's far - month prices. The overall US biodiesel quota is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, with a more favorable impact on Canadian rapeseed products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory is under observation, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a record high since 2019 in December at 3.05 million tons, but the overall situation is not as pessimistic as previously estimated. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - Macro and Policy: The macro and policy outlook is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn could trigger a rebound in oil prices. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled for early March, and Indonesia's B50 may be postponed [3]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for palm oil, go long on soybean oil, and short rapeseed oil on rallies. Palm oil may reach its low point in the first quarter, soybean oil has a strong short - term fundamental outlook, and rapeseed oil is expected to be bearish before the US biodiesel policy is finalized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Multiple factors contribute to an increase in international palm oil supply, and the short - term shortage of soybeans is alleviated. The reduction in Canadian rapeseed import costs may change the purchasing rhythm of oil mills [3]. - Demand: Pre - festival stockpiling in China and India has limited impact on oil digestion, and the B50 delay and US biodiesel policy have different impacts on various oil products [3]. - Inventory: Palm oil inventory varies between Malaysia and Indonesia, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil are in a de - stocking trend [3]. - Macro and Policy: Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties are important factors affecting oil prices [3]. - Investment View: Different investment strategies are proposed for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil based on their respective fundamentals [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading involves going long on soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil, while arbitrage strategies include going long on Y and short on OI, P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads and differences, including P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 spreads [5][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Forecasts of precipitation and temperature anomalies in Southeast Asia over different time periods are provided [19][21][23]. - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [31][35][36]. - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Similar data on Malaysia's palm oil are shown [37][42]. - India's Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread: Information on India's imports of different oils and the international bean - palm spread is provided [43][48]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit are presented [49][51][53]. - Weather and Soybean Production: Forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the progress of soybean planting and harvesting, are provided [60][63][69]. - US and Brazilian Export Situation: Data on the export volumes of the US and Brazil are presented [74][79]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Information on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [90]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Data on the export of rapeseed from different origins, import profit, and domestic arrival volume are presented [91][93]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Information on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前基层售粮进度已超过五成，东北售粮进度同比偏快，今年过年较迟，年前售粮窗口期相对较长，农户挺价情绪仍存；（2）25/26年度种植成本继 续下降，东北、西北增产，华北减产，全国整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年11月，全国工业饲料产量2873万吨，环比减少1.2%，同比增长2.7%，饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为43.8%； （2）生猪存栏高位，产能去化尚不明显，支撑短期饲用需求，生猪养殖已步入亏损，产能调节和政策调控预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, the A-share market opened higher but closed lower. AI application themes declined across the board, while memory concept stocks soared. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.26% at 4101.91 points, and the total trading volume of A-shares reached 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.94 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review of Stock Indexes - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was 1999.99, with a trading volume of 72.45 billion and a decline of 0.83%. The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4731.8728, with a trading volume of 7856.24 billion and a decline of 0.41%. The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 8232.7293, with a trading volume of 6334.11 billion and a decline of 0.10% [3]. - **A-Share Market Performance**: On January 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.2%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.23%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.35%, the Wind All A Index fell 0.17%, the Wind A500 Index fell 0.41%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 0.43%. The total trading volume of A-shares was 3.06 trillion yuan, compared with 2.94 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3.2 Trading Situation of CFFEX Stock Index Options - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50 Index, the trading volume of call options was 2.51 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 6.22 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 3.72 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 3.01 million contracts. For the CSI 300 Index, the trading volume of call options was 12.26 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 7.09 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 14.58 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 8.73 million contracts. For the CSI 1000 Index, the trading volume of call options was 24.20 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 13.27 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 25.61 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 12.34 million contracts [3]. - **PCR Indicators**: The trading volume PCR of the SSE 50 Index was 0.67, and the open interest PCR was 0.61. The trading volume PCR of the CSI 300 Index was 0.58, and the open interest PCR was 0.67. The trading volume PCR of the CSI 1000 Index was 0.76, and the open interest PCR was 0.93 [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cones**: The report presents the historical volatility and volatility cones of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 Indexes, including 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day historical volatilities, along with minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and current values [3]. - **Volatility Smile Curves**: The report shows the volatility smile curves of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 Indexes for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipping market shows a "near - strong, far - weak" oscillating pattern. Spot quotes are continuously loosening, and the FAK central price of the three major alliances has dropped to $2,200 - 2,700/FEU. The main futures contract is oscillating weakly. The EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the EC2604 contract has fallen by over 8% due to off - season expectations. The core drivers are Maersk leading the resumption of Red Sea routes, with capacity growth exceeding demand, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unchanged. Short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by resumption expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor the recovery rhythm of routes and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1,574, down 4.45% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1,210, up 1.25%. SCFI - West America is 2,194, down 1.08%; SCFIS - West America is 1,323, up 5.84%; SCFI - East America is 3,163, up 1.12%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1,676, down 2.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1,956, up 8.97%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2,983, down 7.70% [6]. - **Spot Price**: In the OCEAN Alliance, CMA CGM's price is $3,693/FEU, COSCO Shipping's is $3,325/FEU, Evergreen Marine's is $3,030 - 3,130/FEU (down about $400 from the previous period), and Orient Overseas' is $2,880/FEU (down $150 from the previous period), with the overall FAK central price at about $1,270 - 3,300/FEU. In the GEMINI Alliance, Maersk's price in Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) is $1,695/2,730 (20'/40'), dropping to $1,510/2,420 in Week 5, and non - European base ports are as low as $2,400/FEU; Hapag - Lloyd's is $1,585/2,535 (20'/40'), with the February quote remaining unchanged, and the overall FAK central price at about $2,400 - 2,700/FEU. In the PREMIER Alliance + MSC, MSC's price is $1,580/2,640 (20'/40'), Ocean Network Express (ONE)'s is $1,680/2,635 (20'/40'), with the February price the same; Yang Ming Marine's is about $2,600/FBU, with relatively stable prices; HIM's is $1,433/2,436 (20'/40'), with a relatively low quote, and the overall FAK central price at about $2,400 - 2,650/FEU [7]. - **Market Situation**: The market is in a downward trend. The shipping line shows a "near - strong, far - weak" oscillating pattern. Spot quotes are loosening, and the FAK central price of the three major alliances has dropped to $2,200 - 2,700/FEU. The main futures contract is oscillating weakly, with the EC2602 contract supported by pre - holiday shipments and the EC2604 contract falling by over 8% due to off - season expectations [7][9]. 3.2 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 10% tariff on Denmark, the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and Norway starting from February 1st, and the tariff will increase to 25% on June 1st [6]. - The US is advancing the second phase of the "Gaza Peace Plan" despite opposition from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [6]. - The Sokhna Container Terminal in Egypt has been put into operation, with Hutchison Ports, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping as the core shareholders, and the support from the Ocean Alliance is expected to increase [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel. It points out that for copper, short - term price may be affected by policy and market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains unchanged; zinc price is mainly affected by the "catch - up" logic and is recommended for high - selling and low - buying; nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with short - term bullish sentiment but limited by inventory accumulation [9][90][195]. Summary by Directory 01. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing price monitoring shows that the US dollar index is 99.4 with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.23%, and an annual increase of 1.12%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.969 with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and an annual decrease of 0.29%. Different non - ferrous metals have different price changes, such as industrial silicon at 8,605 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.43%, a weekly decrease of 1.26%, and an annual decrease of 2.88% [7]. 02. Copper (CU) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are bearish, raw material factors are bullish, smelting and demand factors are neutral, and inventory is bearish. The investment view is bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [9]. - **Main Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper is 100,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. The electrolytic copper production is 110.3 million tons, an increase of 1.1% from last week [10]. - **Macro and Industry Events**: China's export and import data in December 2025 exceeded expectations. The central bank launched a series of policies, and the US CPI data was stable. Trump decided not to impose new tariffs on key minerals for the time being [11][12]. - **Market Review**: The copper price rose first and then fell, with the SHFE copper falling 0.6% and LME copper falling 0.2% [16]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic spot premium of flat - copper widened slightly, the SHFE copper term structure remained in a C - structure, and the LME copper spot premium widened [24][25]. - **Smelting**: The copper ore port inventory increased to 69.0 million tons, the spot processing fee decreased slightly to - 46.6 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit of using spot copper ore expanded the loss while that of using long - term contract copper ore increased [37]. - **Copper Output**: SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January to decrease by 1.45 million tons month - on - month, with a decrease of 1.23%, and increase by 15.63 million tons year - on - year, with an increase of 14.78% [41]. - **Copper Import and Export**: The spot import loss of copper widened, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In November, the refined copper import decreased while the export increased significantly [47][52]. - **Recycled Copper**: The copper scrap price difference remained high, the electrolytic copper rod production rate increased, and the recycled copper rod production rate remained low [58]. - **Copper Product Production Rate**: The copper product production rate declined [60]. - **Position Volume**: The SHFE copper position volume remained high, and the short - term squeeze risk was low [68]. - **Copper Inventory**: The global visible copper inventory continued to increase [77]. 03. Zinc (ZN) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are slightly positive, raw material and smelting factors are neutral, demand factors are negative, and inventory is neutral. The investment view is that the zinc price fluctuates, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low [90]. - **Main Data**: The closing price of the LME zinc main contract is 3,314.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.11% from last week. The SHFE zinc main contract is 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% from last week [91]. - **Market Review**: The zinc price rose due to good market sentiment, with the SHFE zinc rising 3.25% as of January 16 [92]. - **Premium**: The domestic premium of zinc declined [95]. - **Processing Fee**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained stable at the bottom [107]. - **Export Window**: The export window of refined zinc was closed [124]. - **Downstream Production Rate**: The downstream production rate in the off - season was weak [133]. - **Terminal Demand**: Infrastructure investment showed a mixed trend, real estate data continued to decline, the automobile and home appliance industries showed growth [162][163][173][182]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of zinc stabilized [183]. 04. Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are neutral, raw material factors are slightly positive, smelting and demand factors are neutral, and inventory is slightly negative. The investment view is that the price will fluctuate at a high level, suggesting short - term long on dips and not chasing highs [195]. - **Main Data**: The closing price of the LME nickel main contract is 17,578 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from last week. The SHFE nickel main contract is 141,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.62% from last week [199]. - **Recent News**: Indonesia's nickel ore production target in 2026 is about 260 million wet tons, and Vale Indonesia has obtained the 2026 mining quota [202]. - **Raw Material**: The nickel ore import decreased seasonally, the port inventory continued to decline, the domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production decreased, the Indonesian intermediate product production increased, and the refined nickel production increased [208][216][221][231]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January increased significantly. The social inventory continued to decline, the import decreased, and the export increased slightly [241][246][257]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand side of stainless steel remained weak, the ternary precursor production decreased, and the new energy vehicle sales continued to grow [263][285]. - **Nickel Inventory**: The global nickel inventory continued to increase [286].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating," indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for caustic soda fails to meet expectations, and both the futures and spot markets are weak. The supply side shows a slight increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side is affected by factors such as the decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is rising, and the cost - profit situation is complex. Short - term market trends are expected to be mainly oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a 0.1% week - on - week increase [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 3.01% to 88.43%, and the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased by 0.72% to 60.09% [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The factory inventory of enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased by 3.41% week - on - week to 512,100 tons (wet tons), and the national caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio increased by 0.66% to 28.89%. There were regional differences in inventory changes [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 56, and the futures price is at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali declined. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 250 yuan/ton [3]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: It is neutral. There is currently no relevant policy [3]. - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, both the futures and spot prices in Shandong declined. The futures price continued to fall and hit a new low. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine increased, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali turned positive, maintenance was less, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the off - season, downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak. The market is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Caustic Soda - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [33]. - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remains high, and inventory is being depleted [35]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38]. - **Comprehensive Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It has decreased [39]. - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports has also increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there is no significant reduction in production. Bauxite supply is in surplus [54]. - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand has entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The printing and dyeing industry is weak, and short - term recovery is difficult [64]. - **Downstream of Liquid Chlorine**: The start - up rate has rebounded [72].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场情绪扰动，橡胶宽幅波动 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-19 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场情绪扰动，橡胶宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：。泰国整体降雨扰动减少，进入季节性割胶高产期。近期部分泰国工厂有烟片补库 需 求，胶水出现分流，采购价格持续上涨。欧盟需求改善，工厂订单好转，带动杯胶价格上涨。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气气温呈现小幅回升态势， | | | | 但原料干含延续季节性下滑，叠加月底中北部地区停割 临近，整体原料产出呈季节性减产，部分工厂为停割提前备货，推动原料价格整体走高。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）截至上周中国全钢 轮胎样本企业产能利用率为6 ...