Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ) with a current price of 28.55 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 71.97 billion CNY for 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.33 billion CNY, which is an 8.1% increase [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) is 13.11%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4][7]. - The bank's total assets and loans grew by 16.1% and 17.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong expansion [6][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Revenue growth is supported by stable interest income, with net interest income increasing by 10.8% year-on-year [5]. - Non-interest income grew by 0.9%, with net fee and commission income rising by 30.7% [5]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The year-end loan balance increased by over 17%, with corporate loans acting as a stabilizing force [6]. - Total liabilities grew by 16.9% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 10.3% [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of over 370% [7]. - The bank has been actively writing off problem assets to manage potential risks [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.44 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.81 [8][11]. - The bank's operational strategy focuses on increasing demand deposits and enhancing revenue streams [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved impressive Q3 performance in 2025, with revenue of 6.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 334 million yuan, up 116.02% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to stable orders from high-quality customers and improved operational efficiency [1] - The demand for energy storage is expected to rise, with global lithium battery shipments projected to reach 620 GWh in 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year, and 960 GWh in 2026, a 54.8% increase. This trend is expected to create a favorable supply-demand landscape for lithium [2] - The company has established a diversified lithium resource guarantee system through self-controlled and purchased mines, ensuring stable raw material supply. The Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe has a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons per year [2] - The company is advancing its solid-state battery layout, with plans to start building a lithium sulfide pilot line in 2026, achieving industry-leading product specifications [3] - The company is actively participating in mergers and acquisitions in the civil explosives industry, aiming to expand capacity and business reach, particularly in Africa and Australia [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 610 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 36.3%, and an increase to 1.31 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 5.6% rise. The projected net profit for 2027 is 1.59 billion yuan, with P/E ratios of 44, 21, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to decline to 7.716 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 8.693 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 11.757 billion yuan in 2026 and 14.745 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 13.5% in 2023 to 25.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [6] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Anta's retail performance showed resilience despite a weak market, with Anta brand and Fila brand revenues experiencing low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth respectively, while other brands saw a growth of 35-40% [1][2] - The company continues to advance its multi-brand strategy and global expansion, launching innovative products and entering new markets, including a three-year plan for Southeast Asia and partnerships in Europe [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue declined slightly, while Fila brand revenue improved to mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 35-40% [1][2] - For the full year, Anta brand and Fila brand revenues grew low single-digit and mid-single-digit respectively, while other brands achieved a growth of 45-50%, leading to a double-digit overall revenue growth for the year [1] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports is recognized as a leading multi-brand sports group, with clear brand positioning and steady expansion [3] - The company launched several innovative products and technologies in 2025, including a fluorine-free fabric and an AI innovation platform [3] Global Expansion - Anta is focusing on expanding its main brand overseas, with plans for a thousand stores in Southeast Asia and initiatives in Europe and the Middle East [3][4] - The Fila brand has initiated a three-year partnership in tennis, enhancing its professional sports image [3] Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 down by 1%-3% due to short-term uncertainties, projecting EPS of 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference has been declining for three consecutive months, reaching -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [10][18] - The average daily crude steel production of key steel enterprises in early January has rebounded to levels close to mid-October 2025 [21][42] - The report highlights that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,200 CNY/ton and glass at 1,124 CNY/ton [79] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -4.7 percentage points as of December 2025, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [10][18] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 47.15 in December 2025, down 10.19% from the previous month [10][18] - The current price of London gold is 4,599 USD/ounce, reflecting a 2.00% increase [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production for key steel companies in early January is approximately 1.903 million tons, a 21.55% increase compared to the previous month [42] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points [42] - The price changes for various materials include rebar up 1.22%, cement price index down 0.94%, and rubber down 1.26% [21] Industrial Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 73.44%, an increase of 7.55 percentage points [2] - Copper spot prices have reached a historical high, while tungsten concentrate prices have also hit a new high since 2012 [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,000 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 6,787 CNY/ton [2] Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached a new low since 2013 [3] - The price difference between rebar and iron ore is currently 3.99 [3] - The price difference between small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) is 200 CNY/ton, a 31.03% decrease from the previous week [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,209.85 points, up 1.25% [3] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel is 75.70%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points [3] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.57%, while the industrial metals sector performed best with a 2.81% increase [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the supply of steel may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in sector profitability to historical average levels [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The economic structure is shifting towards improvement, with expectations for a strong start in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies, strong export and infrastructure indicators, and early disbursement of funds for "trade-in" programs [1] - Economic data is anticipated to rebound, contributing to a positive economic outlook for the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody amount reached 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous month [2] - The bond market shows a trend where commercial banks are increasing their holdings in interest rate bonds, while credit cooperatives are reducing their positions [2] - The economic characteristics of 2025 indicate a "high before low" pattern, with supply outpacing demand and external demand stronger than internal demand [3] - In December 2025, industrial production growth rates increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while fixed asset investment saw a larger decline [3] - The current liquidity in the bond market is relatively loose, and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% in 2026 [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - As of January 18, 2026, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 23,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 45.3% [4] - In major cities, Beijing saw 1,398 units sold (-25%), Shanghai 3,534 units (-35%), and Shenzhen 765 units (-75%) [4] - The second-hand housing market also experienced a decline, with a total of 44,000 units sold across 10 cities, down 17.8% year-on-year [4] - In Beijing, 7,033 second-hand homes were sold (-23%), in Shanghai 12,849 units (-8%), and in Shenzhen 2,844 units (-25%) [4]

Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The Japanese yen depreciated by 0.9% against the US dollar since 2026, while the Japanese stock market surged by 7.1%[1] - The depreciation of the yen cannot be solely explained by narrowing interest rate differentials, as it is influenced by three factors: weak sustainability of US-Japan interest rate differentials, imbalances in the international balance of payments, and uncertainties in Japan's economic recovery[2] - The yen's depreciation is exacerbated by structural trade imbalances and capital outflows, with net foreign investment in Japanese securities reaching -1.58 trillion yen as of December 2025[20] Group 2: Stock Market Drivers - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 26.2% in 2025 and 7.1% in early 2026, driven by high inflation, moderate economic recovery, and government fiscal policies[24] - Key factors supporting the stock market include high inflation leading to increased corporate profits, expectations of fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Kishida, and strong exports in the AI sector[3] - The fiscal budget for 2025 saw a 31.0% increase in supplementary budget and a 6.3% increase in the initial budget compared to the previous fiscal year, indicating a commitment to economic stimulus[10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Japanese stock market is expected to maintain high levels in 2026, with potential boosts from rising consumer spending as inflation recedes and real income levels improve[4] - The yen may continue to face pressure in the first half of 2026, but there is potential for a reversal in the second half as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, narrowing the interest rate differential[5] - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds is anticipated to exhibit a "bear steepening" trend in the first half and a "bear flattening" trend in the second half of 2026[6]

Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, GDP growth rate was 4.5%, meeting expectations and achieving an annual growth rate of 5.0%[3] - Q4 GDP growth rate increased slightly from 1.1% in Q3 to 1.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumption and investment contributed 2.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively[6] Consumption Trends - December retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and November's 1.3%[10] - The decline in retail sales growth was influenced by high base effects and diminishing returns from the "trade-in" policy[10] - December saw a significant drop in automotive consumption growth from -8.3% in November to -5.0%[11] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the year decreased by 3.8%, worse than the expected decline of 2.4%[4] - In December, manufacturing investment fell sharply to -9.4%, while real estate investment plummeted to -36.8%[20] - Equipment investment increased by 11.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade Performance - Export growth rate fell from 6.5% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4, influenced by a high base from 2024[5] - December exports remained resilient, indicating potential strength in Q1 2026[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment dropped to -36.8% in December, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[30] - The sales volume of commercial housing showed signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in December compared to previous months[28] Infrastructure Investment - Both narrow and broad infrastructure investment saw increased declines, with broad infrastructure down 15.2% in December[25] - The decline in infrastructure investment is attributed to lower PPI and cautious spending amid local government debt issues[25] Future Outlook - Anticipated economic rebound in Q1 2026 due to preemptive investment policies and strong indicators in exports and infrastructure[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing investment to support economic recovery in 2026[26] Risks - Potential risks include significant downturns in the global economy and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. In December 2025, the total bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - In terms of the bond holder structure, among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Different institutions showed different trends in holding various types of bonds [2][26]. - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.30 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, and 1.18 trillion yuan less than the month - on - month increase in November [1][11]. - By variety, interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased on a net basis month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased on a net basis. In December 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 124.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 69.80% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 0.69 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 19.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.73%, with a net increase of 0.02 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.24%, with a net increase of 0.13 trillion yuan; the custody of NCDs was 19.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.03%, with a net decrease of 0.62 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Among the allocation portfolios, except for credit cooperatives, all institutions increased their bond holdings; trading portfolios and overseas institutions decreased their bond holdings. Specifically, policy banks increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board; commercial banks and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs and credit bonds; non - legal person products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of NCDs; credit cooperatives and overseas institutions decreased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, NCDs, and credit bonds across the board [2][26]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - The custody of treasury bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks and commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products continued to decrease their holdings. - The custody of local government bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings. - The custody of policy - based financial bonds continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed to significantly decrease their holdings. - The custody of NCDs continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis. Policy banks changed to increase their holdings, while non - legal person products significantly decreased their holdings. - The custody of enterprise bonds continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and all major institutions in the bond market decreased their holdings. - The custody of medium - term notes continued to increase on a month - on - month basis. Commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main institutions increasing their holdings. - The custody of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills continued to decrease on a month - on - month basis, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings. - The custody of privately - placed debt instruments changed to a decrease, and commercial banks were the main institutions decreasing their holdings [3][28]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of December 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.21%, overseas institutions 5.25%, policy banks 11.61%, non - legal person products 7.72%, securities companies 2.50%, insurance institutions 2.57%, and credit cooperatives 1.13% [33]. - The holder structure of policy - based financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 56.73%, non - legal person products 31.54%, overseas institutions 2.82%, credit cooperatives 3.15%, insurance institutions 1.89%, securities companies 0.93%, and policy banks 2.94% [35]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 71.83%, non - legal person products 9.83%, policy banks 11.81%, insurance institutions 4.92%, securities companies 1.02%, credit cooperatives 0.57%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [37]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal person products accounted for 55.48%, commercial banks 31.29%, securities companies 9.09%, insurance institutions 3.23%, policy banks 0.54%, credit cooperatives 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [39]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal person products accounted for 60.33%, commercial banks 24.90%, securities companies 4.56%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.67%, policy banks 3.24%, insurance institutions 2.26%, overseas institutions 0.21%, other 0.57%, and credit cooperatives 0.25% [41]. - The holder structure of short - term financing bills and super - short - term financing bills: non - legal person products accounted for 66.21%, commercial banks 26.47%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.97%, securities companies 1.01%, policy banks 2.73%, other 0.29%, insurance institutions 0.14%, credit cooperatives 0.02%, and overseas institutions 0.15% [46]. - The holder structure of NCDs: non - legal person products accounted for 63.66%, commercial banks 22.09%, policy banks 2.22%, credit cooperatives 1.90%, other 4.15%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.09%, securities companies 0.81%, overseas institutions 2.92%, and insurance institutions 0.16% [45]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation - The balance of bonds to be repurchased increased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio rose on a month - on - month basis. As of the end of December 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style repurchase of bonds to be repurchased was 11.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.04 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The leverage ratio was 107.14%, up 0.54 percentage points month - on - month and down 1.10 percentage points year - on - year [4][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in 2025 showed a significant "high in the front, low in the back" characteristic, with supply stronger than demand and external demand stronger than domestic demand. The GDP growth rate in Q1 was the highest at 5.4%, while that in Q4 dropped to the lowest at 4.5%. The main economic indicators were significantly differentiated, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the inflation environment showing no obvious improvement [2][8]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the added value of large - scale industries both increased. However, the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment widened, and the growth rates of its three major sub - items continued to decline. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods continued to fall, and the month - on - month growth rate was significantly weaker than the seasonal level [2][3]. - In the bond market, for interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened significantly. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on the rise. For convertible bonds, since the beginning of 2026, the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On January 19, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for Q4 and December 2025. The real year - on - year growth rate of GDP in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the real year - on - year growth rate for the whole year was 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to December was 3.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 0.9% [1][7][10]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 Overall Economic Situation in 2025 - The economy showed a "high in the front, low in the back" trend. The industrial production growth rate continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, external demand was strong (export growth rate was 6.1% in 2025), while domestic demand was relatively weak (fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8% and social consumer goods retail sales growth rate was 3.7%). The GDP deflator was negative, and the inflation environment did not improve significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents also continued to decline [8][9]. 3.2.2 Added Value of Large - scale Industries in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in November. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.49%, up from + 0.44% in the previous month. Among the three major sectors, the year - on - year growth rate of the manufacturing industry increased significantly, while those of the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased [15]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Asset Investment in December 2025 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, with the decline expanding. The month - on - month growth rate was - 1.13%, also with an expanding decline. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased, and the single - month year - on - year growth rates were all weak [20][22]. 3.2.4 Social Consumer Goods in December 2025 - The year - on - year growth rate was 0.9%, falling for 7 consecutive months. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.12%, significantly lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. The growth rate of optional consumption slightly stabilized, while the growth rates of necessities and catering services continued to decline [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - Interest - rate bonds: Since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened. The short - end yield has been stable with a slight decline, and the long - end yield has been rising. Given the current loose capital situation and the differentiated fundamental trends, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield in 2026 will be 1.75%. - Convertible bonds: Since the beginning of 2026 (as of January 16), the convertible bond market has moved in tandem with the equity market. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but more attention should be paid to the structure [4][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including China Jushi, Conch Cement, and China State Construction, while suggesting "Hold" for others like Puyang Refractories [12]. Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued an early list of "two heavy" projects for 2026, with a total investment of approximately 295 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 95 billion yuan, indicating a proactive investment approach for 2026 [4][8]. - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on building a smarter and greener power grid [5][9]. - The report highlights that the construction of key projects such as ultra-high voltage power transmission and pumped storage will be accelerated to support the rapid growth of new energy installations [10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Early Project List and Investment Plans - The NDRC's early project list for 2026 includes 281 key projects with a focus on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, supported by 220 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction and over 750 billion yuan for public sector investments [4][8]. - The report anticipates that the construction investment rhythm will continue to be front-loaded, although year-on-year growth may face pressure due to high base effects from the previous year [4][8]. Section 2: Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed profit forecasts and valuations for various companies, indicating a stable outlook for major players in the construction and building materials sector [12]. - Companies such as China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, and Suwen Electric Power are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the infrastructure investment boom [10]. Section 3: Weekly Market Review - The report includes a review of the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, noting significant fluctuations in stock prices among various companies [15][23]. - It identifies top gainers and losers in the market, providing insights into the overall market sentiment and sector performance [23][24].