Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a 5% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for 2025, with significant growth in various sectors, including a 9.9% increase in the primary industry and an 8.2% increase in the tertiary industry [2][11] - The National Grid announced a fixed asset investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, aimed at building a new power system [3][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of digitalization in the power sector and suggests focusing on companies involved in power digitalization, such as State Grid Information Communication and Longxin Group [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The SW public utility sector rose by 0.06% this week, ranking 13th among 31 SW primary sectors, while the sub-sectors showed mixed performance with thermal power up by 0.35% and hydropower down by 1.76% [30] - Domestic and imported coal prices showed divergent trends, with domestic coal prices rising and imported coal prices declining [12][19] Key Events - The National Energy Administration released data indicating a 5% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for 2025, with notable contributions from the tertiary sector and urban residents [2][11] - The report notes that the average electricity price in Guangdong and Shanxi has increased year-on-year, while the monthly agent purchase electricity costs are on the rise due to increased capacity prices [13][14] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the results of annual long-term contracts for thermal power are expected to be reasonable, with significant improvements in profitability for national thermal power operators [4] - The green electricity sector is anticipated to undergo valuation recovery due to policy support and increased subsidies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Longyuan Power and Datang Renewable [4] - The report indicates that while the electricity supply-demand situation remains loose, there is still a need for thermal and green power investments to match overall investment returns [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that recent economic policies, including structural interest rate cuts, are expected to support economic recovery in the first quarter of 2026, with a likelihood of steady improvement in economic data [1] - The financial market policies have played a role in regulating previously overheated sectors, suggesting that the market may not sustain its previous rapid upward trend and could transition into a more volatile phase [1] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of credit bonds increased, with a total of 342 bonds issued amounting to 3318.01 billion, reflecting a 6.25% week-on-week increase [4] - The report notes that the secondary market prices for publicly listed REITs have slightly declined, with the China REITs index closing at 790.22, resulting in a weekly return of -0.36% [3] - The convertible bond market experienced an uptick, driven by strong underlying stock performance, suggesting potential upward valuation space [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Recommendations - In the consumer services sector, the report recommends investing in high-value mass catering leaders like Xiaocaiyuan (H) and fast-growing fresh convenience store operators like Guming (H) [9] - The education sector is advised to focus on national leaders such as New Oriental-S (H) and high school one-on-one leader Xueda Education [9] - In the tourism sector, the report suggests investing in OTA companies like Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip Group-S, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain and Changbai Mountain [9] Group 4: Financial Data and Policies - The report notes that M2 growth has risen to 8.5%, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment aimed at promoting high-quality economic development [10] - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, which is expected to further support the real estate market and stabilize market expectations [11] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - The report discusses China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) strategic focus on building a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics, recommending attention to CNOOC and its subsidiaries [12] - Newhan New Materials is set to acquire a 51% stake in Hairete, with no immediate impact on earnings expected, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15] - Zhuozhao Point Glue is highlighted for its advanced precision glue dispensing equipment and strategic acquisitions to enhance competitive advantages, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 provided [16]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental sectors [1]. Core Insights - The National Grid's fixed asset investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, with an average annual growth rate of 7%, slightly exceeding expectations. Key areas benefiting from this investment include ultra-high voltage, main distribution networks, smart technology, and major projects [3]. - The domestic energy storage project bidding scale for 2025 is projected to be 447 GWh, with a significant portion being non-collective bidding [3]. - The report highlights the potential for hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol industries, particularly in Shanghai, which aims to establish an international green fuel refueling and trading center by 2030 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Equipment and New Energy - The report emphasizes the importance of the National Grid's investment and its implications for various sectors, including ultra-high voltage and smart grid technologies [3]. - It suggests monitoring companies like TBEA, Pinggao Electric, and XJ Electric for potential investment opportunities [4]. Energy Storage - The report notes a continuous increase in the domestic energy storage market, with significant project bids already in place for 2026 [8]. - It highlights the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions in both domestic and international markets, particularly in North America and Ukraine [8]. Wind Power - The report indicates a substantial increase in new wind power installations, with a projected 82.5 GW added in 2025, marking a 59.42% year-on-year growth [10]. - It suggests that companies involved in offshore wind projects in Europe are likely to benefit from upcoming orders and market growth [23]. Lithium Battery and Materials - The report discusses the dynamics of lithium battery materials, noting a recovery in demand and price stabilization across various segments, including lithium carbonate and iron phosphate lithium [25][27]. - It emphasizes the potential for a surge in demand due to changes in export tax policies and the ongoing transition to solid-state batteries [28]. Environmental Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the environmental sector, driven by increased investments and policy support for clean energy initiatives [1][4]. - It suggests that companies involved in hydrogen and ammonia production, as well as those in the energy storage sector, are well-positioned for growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the renewed focus on strategic metal reserves by countries like Australia, the EU, and the US, indicating a significant increase in the importance of "critical mineral resources" since 2025 [2][3]. - The strategic metal storage initiatives are expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and those essential for AI and energy transition [2][3]. Summary by Sections Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a AUD 1.2 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [1]. - The EU plans to raise EUR 3 billion for a supply chain strategy, establishing a platform for critical materials [1]. - The US plans to procure USD 500 million of cobalt, USD 245 million of antimony, USD 100 million of tantalum, and USD 45 million of scandium [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in metals with high supply concentration and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, copper and lithium from South America, and nickel from Indonesia [2]. - It emphasizes the demand for copper, aluminum, and tin driven by AI and energy transition, while noting supply constraints for these metals [3]. - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are highlighted as having tight supply, with significant applications in defense [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strategic positioning in the metals market: - Copper: Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. - Aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum and China Aluminum [4]. - Cobalt and Nickel: Huayou Cobalt and others [4]. - Tungsten: China Tungsten High-Tech [4]. - Tin: Xiyang Tin and others [4]. - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous [4]. - Rare Earths: Northern Rare Earth and others [4].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Strategy Overview - The report suggests that the market may experience fluctuations, and it is advisable to maintain a steady approach before the Spring Festival. Structural interest rate cuts are expected to support economic recovery, leading to improved economic data in the first quarter. However, the market is unlikely to sustain its previous rapid growth, and a shift towards a more stable and oscillating market is anticipated. Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is expected [1] Key Industries Computer - AI application hype is transitioning from peak excitement to a more rational phase. Focus should be on large-cap stocks with practical application cases and positive earnings expectations. Three major opportunities in China's AI applications are identified: deepening industrial applications, overseas expansion, and hardware and algorithm restructuring [2] Electric New Energy - In the energy storage and lithium battery upstream sector, investment priorities are outlined for lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and other materials. AI power demand remains strong, and the hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to receive more investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on ultra-high voltage and microgrid investments [2] Nonferrous Metals - The report is optimistic about gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and tin due to the transition towards a metal-intensive energy landscape. Gold prices are expected to rise due to the interest rate cycle and weakened dollar credit. Copper prices are projected to increase to $14,000 per ton due to supply tightness and demand from data centers and energy storage [2] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is moving towards "intelligent manufacturing" driven by AI policies. Companies are adopting various paths to implement AI in manufacturing, including self-developed models and partnerships with AI startups. Key companies in this sector are highlighted for their potential in leveraging AI for new materials and fine chemicals [2] High-end Manufacturing - The report suggests focusing on the robotics sector and high-demand PCB and liquid cooling equipment due to short-term investment direction shifts. The anticipated rollout of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026 is expected to create investment opportunities in the supply chain [2] Automotive - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to be driven by policy support, with a slight decline in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles. However, the export of new energy vehicles is projected to maintain rapid growth. Structural investment opportunities in auto parts are recommended [2] Financial Sector - The insurance sector is expected to perform well due to a favorable liability side and high equity market exposure. The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from policies aimed at promoting consumption and investment [2] Real Estate - The report indicates a significant decline in new home transaction volumes in major cities, with a slight increase in average prices. Leading state-owned enterprises are expected to benefit from improved competitive structures [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have driven significant fluctuations in oil prices, providing a favorable backdrop for oil price recovery [1] - OPEC+ is expected to cautiously increase production in 2026, which may help alleviate the oversupply situation in the oil market [2] - Global oil demand is projected to improve, with the chemical raw material demand expected to dominate the growth in 2026 [3] - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing their resilience during price fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, with a cautious production increase expected to improve the supply-demand balance [2] - The IEA has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 860,000 barrels per day, attributing this to improved macroeconomic conditions [3] Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as their associated oil service engineering firms [4]

2026 年 1 月 18 日 总量研究 市场或转为震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260118 要点 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2026.01.12-2026.01.16，下同）市场涨跌分化，成长风格指数震荡收涨， 红利风格指数表现垫后。1 月 14 日中午，经证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通 知调整融资保证金比例，当日下午市场表现急转直下，指数出现回调。 市场情绪方面，当前主要宽基指数量能仍处高景气区间，量能观点仍积极；主要 宽基指数及宽基指数 ETF 成交量 PCR 震荡回升，衍生品投资者交易情绪小幅降 温。后市或从趋势性上行转向震荡上行，中长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主 线，短线科技或仍占优。 本周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指下跌 0.45%，上证 50 下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中证 500 上涨 2.18%，中证 1000 上涨 1.27%，创业板指上 涨 1.00%，北证 50 指数上涨 1.58%。 截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，宽基指数来看，中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指处于 估值分位数"适中"等级，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300 处于估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 51% of the equity in HaiRite Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of 12.8826 million yuan, which will make HaiRite a subsidiary of the company [2]. - The acquisition aims to extend the company's business layout from upstream fluoroketones to downstream PAEK, enhancing its service capabilities for PAEK's entire industry chain and exploring new growth points [2]. - HaiRite specializes in the synthesis and modification of PEEK and PAEK specialty resins, with an annual production capacity of over 200 tons of high-quality PEEK resin [2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues and net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of 790 million yuan, net profit of 79 million yuan, EPS of 0.45 yuan per share - 2026: Revenue of 850 million yuan, net profit of 85 million yuan, EPS of 0.49 yuan per share - 2027: Revenue of 1 billion yuan, net profit of 100 million yuan, EPS of 0.57 yuan per share [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9.94% from 2025 to 2026 and 13.10% from 2026 to 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics for the company: - P/E ratio for 2025 is projected at 110, decreasing to 86 by 2027 - P/B ratio for 2025 is projected at 7.1, decreasing to 6.4 by 2027 [5][13].