Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the issuance scale, types, and progress of different periods, as well as the issuance progress of special bonds [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st to December 7th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 1087.2 billion yuan, including 504.4 billion yuan of new bonds (113.9 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390.5 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 582.8 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (413.1 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 169.7 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From November 24th to November 30th, local bonds were issued at 3513.6 billion yuan, including 2340.2 billion yuan of new bonds (87.5 billion yuan of new general bonds and 2252.7 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1173.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (687.7 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 485.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report presents the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions through multiple figures, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance in different periods and regions [21][22]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 30th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 91.02%, and that of new special bonds is 101.81% [27]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of November 30th through a figure [27]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 2712.79 billion yuan, and an additional 513.43 billion yuan will be issued next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1227.00 billion yuan) [5]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the special new special bonds in 2025 total 13508.41 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25387.05 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan). The top three regions in the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (1289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1192.68 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [6]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds through figures, including the spreads of different maturities and their changes [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds through a figure [39]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Direction - **Project Investment Monthly Statistics**: The report shows the investment direction of new special bonds through a figure, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth trajectory of AnDe ZhiLian, which has evolved from an internal logistics department of Midea Group to a leading market-oriented and platform-based supply chain service provider in China. AnDe ZhiLian has established a leadership position in production logistics solutions, leveraging its deep manufacturing roots and unique end-to-end solutions. Despite not being a traditional scale giant, it occupies leading positions in several niche areas, earning the title of "invisible champion." The future growth points for Chinese contract logistics companies include: 1) enhancing penetration to tap into the domestic market; 2) replicating successful models across industries for horizontal expansion; 3) following the trend of Chinese manufacturing going global [2][6][59]. Summary by Sections AnDe ZhiLian's Growth Path - AnDe ZhiLian has transitioned from being a logistics unit of Midea Group to a leading market-oriented supply chain service provider. It has developed a unique "1+3" integrated business model, excelling in various segments such as home appliances and fast-moving consumer goods [22][28]. Market Position and Financial Performance - AnDe ZhiLian's revenue for 2024 and the first half of 2025 is projected to be 186.6 billion and 108.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.0% and 20.2%. The integrated supply chain logistics solutions account for over 85% of its revenue, maintaining a stable gross margin of around 8% [32][39]. Competitive Advantages - The company's competitive edge stems from long-term strategic partnerships with "chain leaders," a robust national logistics network, and a stable professional management team. AnDe ZhiLian's unique "1+3" model integrates production logistics, centralized inventory management, and last-mile delivery services, enhancing operational efficiency [44][49]. Future Growth Opportunities - The report identifies three main growth opportunities for the logistics industry: 1) increasing penetration in the domestic market; 2) horizontal expansion by replicating successful models in high-growth verticals; 3) global expansion aligned with the internationalization of Chinese manufacturing [59][63].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Dividend Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Name**: Dividend Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model focuses on selecting high-quality dividend stocks and constructing portfolios that outperform the benchmark dividend index by leveraging dividend quality and growth factors[7][15][21] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with high dividend yields and strong dividend growth potential - The selection process incorporates a combination of fundamental analysis and quantitative screening to identify stocks with stable and growing dividends - The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to ensure alignment with the dividend quality and growth criteria[13][14][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in capturing excess returns over the benchmark dividend index, particularly in volatile market conditions[7][15][21] Electronic Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Name**: Electronic Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to achieve excess returns by balancing exposure across various sub-sectors within the electronics industry, focusing on growth and stability[7][24][29] - **Model Construction Process**: - The portfolio is constructed by allocating weights to sub-sectors such as LED chips and semiconductor distribution, which exhibit strong growth potential - Quantitative screening is applied to identify leading companies within these sub-sectors - The portfolio is periodically rebalanced to maintain a balanced exposure across the electronics industry[13][14][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures excess returns and ranks in the top 15% of active technology-themed products in terms of weekly performance[7][24][29] --- Model Backtesting Results Dividend Enhancement Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: Approximately 0.23% for the "Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio" and 1.45% for the "Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio"[7][15][21] - **Year-to-Date Excess Return**: The "Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio" achieved an excess return of approximately 7.91% relative to the benchmark dividend index, ranking in the top 35% of all dividend-themed funds[21] Electronic Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio - **Weekly Excess Return**: Approximately 0.89%, ranking in the top 15% of active technology-themed products[7][24][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a slight pullback this week, with the Yangtze Bank Index declining by 0.5%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, primarily due to short-term market style changes. However, this volatility does not affect the long-term direction of dividend allocation in bank stocks, as institutional funds are accelerating their allocations ahead of the state-owned banks' mid-term dividend announcements [2][20] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has been upgraded to the third group of globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs), with capital requirements set to increase by 0.5 percentage points starting in 2027. Despite this, ICBC's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stands at 13.57% as of the end of Q3, expected to remain above 13.5% by the end of 2027 under stable dividend payout conditions [6][42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector index fell by 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.2% and 5.1%, respectively. The decline is attributed to short-term market style changes, but long-term dividend allocation remains positive as institutional funds increase their investments [2][9][20] - As of November 28, the average dividend yield for the six major banks' A-shares decreased to 3.74%, with a spread of 190 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield. The average dividend yield for H-shares is 4.90%, with a discount rate of 23% compared to A-shares [23][27] Regulatory Changes - ICBC's upgrade to the third group of G-SIBs will result in an increase in capital requirements to 9.5% by 2027. The bank's TLAC risk-weighted ratio is 21.52%, meeting the 2025 regulatory requirement of 20%, but will need to address a shortfall as the requirement increases to 22.5% in 2028 [6][42][45] Individual Bank Performance - Individual bank performance showed that Everbright Bank's H-shares had a notable increase, while shares of Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China experienced a pullback after previous gains. The recent increase in southbound capital holdings in H-shares indicates a positive trend [2][20] - The report highlights the potential for strong redemption opportunities in convertible bonds linked to bank stocks, as the prices of underlying stocks are approaching redemption thresholds [10][28]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.2%, remaining below the expansion threshold and lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 49.4%[2] - The new orders index and production index hit their lowest levels since 2013, excluding 2022, indicating insufficient rebound strength[2] - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for eight consecutive months, marking the longest period of contraction historically[7] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by a recovery in export orders, with the new orders index contributing 60% and the production index contributing 37.5% to the overall PMI increase[7] - The new orders index rose to 49.2%, with new export orders increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%[7] - Despite improvements in demand, the production index only slightly increased to 50.0%, indicating a lack of robust production growth[7] Group 3: Price Trends - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.6%, reaching a five-year high for the same period, while the factory price index increased to 48.2%[7] - The rise in raw material prices suggests that the "anti-involution" policy effects may be becoming evident, potentially leading to a rise in PPI month-on-month[7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes increasing household consumption rates and public service spending, indicating that consumption may become a key driver of economic growth next year[2] - The necessity for incremental policy measures is expected to be discussed in the upcoming December Politburo and economic work meetings[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the pricing methods for transmission and distribution aims to enhance the consumption of renewable energy, with a focus on establishing a fair cost-sharing mechanism among grid companies, power generation enterprises, and users [2][6]. - The new regulations are expected to lower transmission and distribution costs, thereby making electricity pricing more reasonable while promoting the utilization of renewable energy [12]. Summary by Sections Pricing Method Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four pricing methods related to transmission and distribution, adapting to the new requirements of the power system and focusing on renewable energy consumption [6]. - Key changes include the introduction of a single capacity pricing system for grid companies serving renewable energy projects, enhancing regulatory oversight throughout the process [7]. Cost Monitoring - The new methods provide a more accurate reflection of financing costs for grid companies by establishing a loan interest rate based on the average financing rate of the group [6]. - Changes in cost parameters for materials and management fees aim to ensure that costs do not exceed previously established limits, thus improving the accuracy of cost monitoring [6][7]. Provincial and Cross-Regional Pricing - The revised methods allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies, ensuring a balance between reasonable returns and user affordability [7]. - For cross-regional projects, the report suggests exploring two-part or single capacity transmission pricing, which is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy across provinces [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Investment Power [12]. - It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting investments in companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The weakening dollar and rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a recovery in risk assets, with silver leading the way. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 80%, benefiting precious metals and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of silver, which has recently reached a new historical high due to futures market dynamics. The outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of continued economic recession in the U.S. and attractive valuations in the A-share market for gold stocks [4]. - Industrial metal prices have strengthened, driven by enhanced rate cut expectations, with copper and aluminum showing significant price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that the weakening dollar and the anticipated rate cuts are driving precious metals, particularly silver, to new highs. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment and trading structures favor silver's continued rise [4]. - For gold, the report maintains a bullish stance, predicting that if gold prices break previous highs, the sector will see significant recovery in valuations. The report recommends focusing on specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to improve the short-term outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price movements include a 3.7% increase in LME copper and a 2% increase in LME aluminum [4][21]. - The report also discusses the supply dynamics, indicating that copper and aluminum inventories have shown mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories have decreased [4][36]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for lithium, with supply and demand dynamics expected to shift positively. The recovery in lithium prices is anticipated as production constraints and rising demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continue [4]. - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value appreciation, particularly in light of government policies affecting supply and ongoing demand recovery [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.16% increase compared to a 1.40% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index over the past week [12][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. Gross profit was HKD 1.827 billion, down 20.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decline of 24.4%. The interim dividend per share remained flat at HKD 0.13 [2][6]. - The core operating business remains stable, although the installation, maintenance, and construction segments, along with property business, have seen declines, impacting overall profitability. The company has shown signs of a turning point in free cash flow, indicating potential for future dividend increases [2][9]. Business Segment Analysis - **Urban Water Supply**: Revenue decreased by 13.1% to HKD 3.27 billion, with segment profit down 17.4% to HKD 941 million. However, core water supply service revenue increased by 4.5% to HKD 1.801 billion, driven by a 5% increase in water sales. The completion of water price adjustments in eight cities is expected to further boost revenue and profit margins [9]. - **Direct Drinking Water**: Revenue fell by 28.3% to HKD 263 million, with segment profit declining 55.2% to HKD 75 million. Despite this, revenue from direct water supply operations and equipment sales remained stable [9]. - **Environmental Segment**: Benefiting from the Meifeng Wastewater Treatment Project, this segment achieved revenue of HKD 832 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with segment profit rising 29.7% to HKD 367 million [9]. - **General Contracting**: Revenue decreased by 6.1% to HKD 398 million, with segment profit down 60.2% to HKD 158 million [9]. - **Property Business**: Revenue plummeted by 93.3% to HKD 17 million, with segment profit dropping 96.4% to HKD 500,000, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be limited [9]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a 17.6% decrease in financial expenses during FY2026H1, benefiting from lower financing costs amid domestic and international interest rate cuts [9]. - The interim dividend payout ratio is 37%, with capital expenditures peaking at HKD 5.14 billion in FY2024, decreasing to HKD 3.24 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 150 million. For FY2026, capital expenditures are projected to be no more than HKD 2 billion, indicating a clear turning point in free cash flow and potential for increased dividends [9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.14 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.20 billion for FY2026-2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.0%, 2.2%, and 2.7% respectively. The emergence of free cash flow is viewed positively for future dividend increases, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 42.53% for FY2026-2028, corresponding to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.2%, and 5.3% based on the stock price as of November 28, 2025 [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 好房子的关键在于定价 [Table_Summary] 最顶端的豪宅市场，从典型样本跟周边次新的比价去看，定价已趋于合理区间，但市场容量相 对有限，核心矛盾在于潜在供应量较大；中高端改善市场，大多数产品定价已不低，且周边二 手竞品仍面临较大的补跌压力，好房子去化逐步承压，但部分定价具备性价比的项目，去化依 然相对较好，定价是项目去化的关键。综合而言，好房子是中长期阿尔法，只要定价合理，去 化不是问题，今年部分高地价项目的兑现有不确定性，短期盈利改善进程有一定波折；但近期 土地市场逐步降温，这对后续拿地构成利好，房企中期盈利结构性改善的置信度在提高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 好房子的关键在于定价 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the software and services industry [12] Core Insights - The current AI narrative is viewed as a new industrial revolution, with Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang predicting the creation of a $100 trillion market driven by the transformation of existing industries and the emergence of new markets for AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is expected to enhance productivity by freeing humans from mundane tasks, with significant implications for both consumer and enterprise applications [50][55] - Major players in the AI space are focusing on vertical integration, with model manufacturers and chipmakers collaborating to create AI factories and enhance system capabilities [9][10] Summary by Sections Current AI Expectations - The AI transformation is seen as a new industrial revolution, with potential market size reaching $100 trillion driven by changes in large-scale enterprises and the emergence of AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is reshaping how large companies operate, with significant revenue streams now driven by AI technologies [24][28] Birth of Super Applications - Super applications are likely to emerge from major tech giants, focusing on traffic entry points and user engagement [8][55] - The ultimate goal of technological advancement is to liberate humans from necessary labor, allowing for a focus on higher-value tasks [55][56] Strategic Positioning of Major Players - Major AI companies are pursuing vertical integration strategies, combining model development with platform and operating system creation [9][10] - The competition for traffic entry points is intensifying, with companies vying for control over user interactions and data [58][59] Focus Areas for Investment - The report highlights three key areas for investment: AI factories, traffic entry points, and companies that can quickly realize labor revolution scenarios [10] - Companies that can leverage AI for long-term value, particularly in cloud computing and hardware supply, are recommended for investment [10]