丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 从主动基金 Q4 持仓看配置思路 ——银行股配置重构系列九 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q4 主动基金并未进一步减仓银行股，配置比例环比基本稳定，主要反映市场风险偏好回 落。但我们预计 2026Q1 配置比例可能进一步降低，主要风险偏好大幅回升，银行股年初的相 对收益明显落后。从 2025Q4 个股配置比例来看，基本面趋势成为核心选股思路，确立零售资 产质量拐点和业绩预期向好的宁波银行获得明显加仓，今年以来领涨。近期宽基指数基金流出 等资金面因素造成银行股超跌，建议把握优质城商行低位的配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从主动基金2]Q4 持仓看配置思路 ——银行股配置重构系列九 [Table_Summary2] 2025Q4 主动基金并未明显减仓银行股，预计今年 ...

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业利润"开门红"在望 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 总的来看，年末外需走强带动下，工业企业利润增长动能不弱。2026 年 1 月，在春节错位下， 出口的量仍有望维持较好增长，领先出口数据的 Vizion 订舱量同比增速明显回升。外需承托下， 企业利润增长并无近忧，但 2 月出口面临高基数后，增长动能仍待察。内需方面，政策发力推 动投资止跌回稳的信号在逐步释放，在服务消费支持政策尚未有明确框架的前提下，增量政策 更多集中在企业投资领域，短期思路或优先推动投资止跌回稳。在内需和外需双重发力下，一 季度有望实现企业利润的"开门红"。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 企业利润"开门红 2] "在望 《眼前的税收，远方的通胀 • ——宏观周脉"博"系列 2》2026-01-18 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - The German government plans to restart the electric vehicle (EV) subsidy policy that was suspended in 2023, with a total budget of €3 billion (approximately ¥24 billion), aimed at boosting the domestic automotive industry and accelerating the green transition [2][4][18]. - The subsidy will provide between €1,500 and €6,000 for eligible low- to middle-income families purchasing new energy vehicles priced below €45,000, effective from January 1, 2026, until 2029 or until funds are exhausted [18]. - The expected impact of the subsidy is to significantly increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany, with projections indicating that at least 500,000 vehicles will be subsidized, accounting for approximately 29.5% of the expected new energy vehicle sales in 2025 [18][21]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On January 19, the German government announced the restart of the EV subsidy policy, with a total budget of €3 billion, to enhance the penetration of new energy vehicles in the market [4][18]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany is expected to rise significantly due to the subsidy, with a projected 84,700 new energy vehicles sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.3% [13][18]. - The overall new energy vehicle sales in Europe are projected to reach 3.9 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [13][18]. Implications for Domestic Companies - The subsidy is expected to benefit domestic companies such as BYD, Leapmotor, and SAIC, as many of their models are priced below €45,000 [30]. - The increase in new energy vehicle penetration in Europe is anticipated to positively impact the performance of domestic component manufacturers and vehicle producers operating in the European market [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio in the automotive industry slightly increased to 4.35%, up by 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall overweight of 0.14% compared to the market capitalization of automotive stocks in A-shares [2][5] - The configuration ratio for automotive manufacturing decreased to 1.04%, down by 0.12 percentage points, while the configuration ratio for automotive parts increased to 3.31%, up by 0.14 percentage points [5] - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 reached 8.846 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.1% [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector increased by 2.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.62% [28] - Among sub-sectors, commercial vehicle parts rose by 7.36%, while automotive sales and services fell by 5.74% [28] Fund Holdings - The top fifteen fund holdings in the automotive sector for Q4 2025 include Fuyao Glass, Slin Intelligent Drive, and Sailun Tire, with significant inflows into Slin Intelligent Drive and outflows from Jianghuai Automobile [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Overseas expansion with recommendations for companies like Minth Group and BYD 2. High-end passenger vehicles and parts with a focus on companies like Geely and Ideal Automotive 3. Embracing AI technology with recommendations for companies like Top Group and Xpeng Motors [7][22][23]

%% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 [Table_Title] 如何看待玻纤电子布的提价弹性及持续性 ——基于织布机和铂金视角 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 玻纤行业整体处于周期相对底部，基于供需关系，我们判断 2026 年提价弹性如下：AI 特种电 子布>普通电子布>普通粗纱，看好电子布提价带来的业绩弹性。AI 电子布需求持续高景气，看 好紧缺之下的提价，Low CTE 和 Low-Dk 二代布缺口更大。普通电子布在织布机产能挤压逻辑 之下有望持续提价，2025 年织布机已经形成缺口，2026 年缺口维持，2027 年缺口将全面放 大。此外铂金涨价推升投资成本，亦或对供给节奏形成一定抑制。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK473 %% %% research.95579.com 2 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 [Table_Title 如何看待玻纤电子布的提价弹性及持续性 2] ——基于织布机 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 政策讯号下看当前转债估值 ——可转债周报 20260117 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 融资保证金上调或对转债短期情绪有所压制，在全市场溢价率逼近前高的背景下，或需警惕回 调风险。结构上，年后中大盘转债主导估值抬升，低评级品种估值上行，小盘及高评级估值相 对低估；在高估值市场背景下需防范强赎引致溢价压缩。当周 A 股震荡分化，中盘及科创指数 占优，传媒、计算机等科技成长方向领涨，拥挤度分化。转债市场走强，中小盘转债优于大盘， 估值普遍拉伸，隐波与市价中位数维持高位，部分双高标的涨幅居前。一级市场发行较平稳， 储备充裕；条款博弈仍是焦点，下修意愿弱而赎回博弈加剧，需关注大额高评级品种强赎风险。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 政策讯号下看当前转债估值 2] ——可转债周报 20260117 [Table_Summary2] 当周核心观点 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S04905 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's cumulative electricity sales volume for 2025 is expected to reach 226.79 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.00%. In the second half of 2025, the sales volume is projected to be 124.81 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 9.77%. The growth rate of electricity sales in the second half of 2025 shows significant improvement compared to the first half, indicating a stable revenue growth outlook despite downward pressure on electricity prices [2][10] - The company is expected to face some pressure on its overall performance in 2025 due to weak coal production in the first half and a high base effect from the previous year. However, the decline in performance is anticipated to narrow [2][10] - The company has seen a steady increase in electricity sales across various sources: thermal power sales reached 157.79 billion kWh (up 1.3%), wind power sales reached 53.70 billion kWh (up 16.4%), solar power sales reached 13.20 billion kWh (up 55.5%), and hydropower sales reached 2.09 billion kWh (up 35.9%) [6][10] - The company has been expanding its renewable energy capacity, with a total of 4.839 million kW of new wind and solar installations added in the first half of 2025. As of June 30, 2025, the company has 8.679 million kW of wind and 6.515 million kW of solar capacity under construction, ensuring growth potential [10] Summary by Sections Sales Volume and Revenue Outlook - The company expects stable growth in electricity sales volume for 2025, with a total of 226.79 billion kWh, and a significant improvement in the growth rate in the second half of the year [2][10] - Revenue growth is expected to be steady, although it may lag behind the growth in electricity sales due to downward pressure on electricity prices [2][10] Cost Management and Performance - Fuel costs are expected to maintain a year-on-year decline, with the average price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port at 716.77 RMB/ton, down 118.97 RMB/ton year-on-year. This cost optimization is expected to support the company's thermal power operations [10] - Despite some challenges, the overall performance decline for 2025 is expected to narrow compared to the first half of the year [2][10] Growth and Dividend Policy - The company has a consistent dividend policy, with a mid-year dividend of 0.356 HKD per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [10] - The orderly expansion of renewable energy capacity is expected to provide growth opportunities for the company [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue growth turned positive in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of +0.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by +1.2% [2][6] - Interest income increased by +2.0% for the year, with a notable acceleration in Q4, driven by a reduction in the decline of net interest margin [2][6] - Non-interest income decreased by -3.4% for the year, although fee income is expected to remain stable, and wealth management income is projected to grow due to market recovery [2][6] - Total assets grew by +7.6% year-on-year, with loans increasing by +5.4%, and a significant acceleration in Q4 [2][6] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 392%, indicating potential retail risk disturbances [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue growth of +0.01% for the full year, with Q4 showing a growth of +1.6% after a -0.5% decline in the first three quarters [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by +1.2% for the year, with Q4 growth at +3.4% [2][6] - Interest income grew by +2.0% for the year, with Q4 growth accelerating to +2.9% [2][6] Asset Quality and Risk - The non-performing loan ratio was stable at 0.94% at year-end, with a provision coverage ratio of 392%, down by 14 percentage points [2][6] - Retail credit card overdue rates have decreased for three consecutive quarters, indicating stabilization in risk indicators [2][6] Growth and Scale - Total assets increased by +7.6% year-on-year, with loans growing by +5.4% [2][6] - Q4 saw a quarter-on-quarter loan growth of +1.7%, with expectations of early release of credit reserves for 2026 [2][6] Market Position and Valuation - The stock price has been affected by net outflows from bank index funds and real estate risk expectations, leading to a current A-share PB valuation of 0.88x for 2025 and 0.81x for 2026 [2][6] - The expected dividend yield for A-shares is projected to rise to 5.3% for 2025 and 5.4% for 2026, indicating clear dividend value [2][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment and trading indicators [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: The net supply of local bonds from January 19th to January 25th was 2032 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from January 26th to February 1st is 3109 billion yuan [1][5][20] - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: In January 2026, the planned and actual issuance of local bonds are presented in detail, showing differences in various types of bonds such as new - general bonds, new - special bonds, and refinancing bonds [18][22] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 25th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 2.70%, and that of new special bonds was 3.49% [28] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 25th is presented in a time - series chart [28] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 2759.33 billion yuan, with an additional 980.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui [7][32] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 95.88 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25546.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2026 are Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang [7][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including overall and regional secondary spreads [38] - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in a monthly statistics chart [40]