Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to see a spring rally, with thematic growth breaking through despite mixed signals from the global economy and domestic indicators [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion [3][4] - The "old-for-new" policy and optimization of real estate policies are expected to further support domestic demand [2] Recent Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, with production and new orders indices both above 50, indicating improved business conditions [3][4] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, reflecting a strong recovery in the construction sector [4] - The service sector PMI also showed slight improvement, rising to 49.7, indicating a gradual recovery [4] Policy Tracking - The 2026 "old-for-new" policy aims to support the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, with a focus on smart products and mid-to-high-end automobiles [5][6] - The reduction of the personal housing sales value-added tax rate is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market [6] - The central bank's measures to strengthen the digital RMB management system are set to enhance financial services [6] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.25% [15] - Key sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media led the gains, with increases of 3.92%, 3.05%, and 2.13% respectively [13][15] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market rose to approximately 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase week-on-week [15][17]

石油石化 2026 年 1 月 4 日 石油石化周报 油价短期或有支撑，关注美委局势升级和 OPEC+增产态度 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美委地缘局势升级，叠加市场预期 OPEC+将维持暂停增 产立场，或对油价形成一定支撑。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 12 月 26 日 -2026 年 1 月 2 日，WTI 原油期货收盘价上涨 0.62%，布伦特油期货 价保持不变。地缘政治方面 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][54]. Core Views - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, which may enhance the strategic resource pricing of metals. The gold market is expected to maintain its safe-haven appeal due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the unresolved U.S. debt issue, leading to a potential long-term increase in gold prices [4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see an upward trend in pricing due to increased financial attributes and tightening supply conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 31, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 9342.49 points, up 0.4% month-on-month. The precious metal index decreased by 2.2%, while the industrial metal index increased by 2.1% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - As of December 31, the COMEX gold futures contract was priced at $4341.9 per ounce, down 4.8% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.6% to 1065 tons. The report suggests that the recent price drop is a short-term adjustment in a longer-term upward trend for gold prices [4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The SHFE copper futures contract was priced at 98,240 RMB per ton as of December 31, down 0.49% month-on-month. Domestic copper social inventory reached 238,900 tons, while LME copper inventory was at 145,000 tons. The report indicates a tightening supply expectation for copper, with a potential upward revaluation of copper prices in the medium term [6]. 3.2 Aluminum - The SHFE aluminum futures contract rose by 2.3% to 22,925 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 684,000 tons, with LME aluminum inventory at 509,300 tons. The report anticipates that aluminum prices will maintain a high-level fluctuation due to a supportive macro environment [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 4.6% to 322,900 RMB per ton as of December 31. Domestic tin social inventory was 8,520 tons, and LME tin inventory was 5,415 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep the tin market tight [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued geopolitical uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven status. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: Strong demand against weak supply conditions may drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][51].

Economic Overview - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, with the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month[3] - Manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone for the first time in 8 months, with indices for production and new orders rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively[3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing PMI for December shows significant growth, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reporting an increase[3] - High-tech manufacturing saw the most notable improvement, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] Construction and Services - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly, with a business activity index at 52.8%, indicating a recovery driven by favorable weather and pre-holiday construction activities[3] - Service sector sentiment showed a slight recovery, but retail and catering industries remain under pressure, with business activity indices in contraction zones[3] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing gap between supply and demand[3] - The PPI year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to between -2.1% and -2% as the PMI remains above negative territory for five consecutive months[3] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[2][13] - Investment recommendations suggest a strong buy for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[14]

行 业 点 评 行情走势图 行 业 报 告 电子 行业点评 长鑫科技招股书披露，国产DRAM存储蓄势待发 强于大市( 维持) 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业深度报告*电子*面板*强于大市 20230323 2023年03月23日 证券分析师 杨钟 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525080001 yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn 徐勇 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519090004 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn 郭冠君 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524050003 GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 陈福栋 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524100001 CHENFUDONG847@pingan.com.cn 徐碧云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523070002 XUBIYUN372@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2025年12月30日晚间，上交所披露国产DRAM大厂长鑫科技科创板招股书。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 强烈推荐 （预计6个月内，股价表现强于市场表现20%以上） 推 荐 （预计6个月内，股价表现强于市场表现10%至20%之 ...

行 业 报 告 行业点评 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 2026 年汽车以旧换新政策更加倾向中高端市场 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 汽车 2025 年 12 月 31 日 事项： 国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），明确 2026 年"两新政策"的支持范围、 补贴标准和工作要求。在资金方面，2026 年直接向地方安排的消费品以旧换新 资金继续按照 9：1 的原则实习央地共担，此外国家已于近日向地方提前下达 2026 年第一批 625 亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元 旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 平安观点： 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年汽车补 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a significant adjustment to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for personal housing sales, effective January 1, 2026. The VAT rate for personal sales of homes purchased for less than two years will be reduced from 5% to 3%, while sales of homes purchased for two years or more will continue to be exempt from VAT [3][6]. - The reduction in VAT is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market by lowering transaction costs. For example, on a house valued at 1 million, the total tax burden will decrease from 5.3% to 3.18%, significantly reducing the costs associated with selling homes held for a shorter duration [6]. - The report emphasizes the improved cost-effectiveness of the sector and suggests that the recent policy changes in Beijing and the VAT adjustment are likely to stimulate positive marginal changes in the industry [6]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Changes**: The VAT rate for personal housing sales has been adjusted, which is anticipated to boost market activity [3][6]. - **Market Impact**: The overall tax burden on short-term housing sales has been significantly reduced, which is expected to increase the liquidity in the second-hand housing market [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests that certain quality companies, particularly those with strong inventory structures and product capabilities, should be considered for investment, especially those showing early signs of improvement in their annual reports [6].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - CStone Pharmaceuticals is transitioning into R&D 2.0, focusing on innovative pipelines and cutting-edge technologies, with a strong emphasis on clinical development as the driving force [6][11]. - The company has successfully launched four innovative drugs and has a pipeline of 16 candidate drugs, indicating robust growth potential [6][11]. - The financial outlook shows a projected revenue increase from 1.95 billion CNY in 2025 to 6.33 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Clinical Development as the Engine - CStone Pharmaceuticals was established in 2016, focusing on clinical development and innovative R&D in oncology and immune diseases [11]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders including WuXi Healthcare Ventures (11.84%) and Pfizer (7.91%) [14]. - Cash management is stable, with a focus on core R&D investments, and the company reported a revenue of 0.49 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [17][18]. 2. R&D Pipeline and Innovations - The company is advancing into R&D 2.0, focusing on multi-targeted therapies and ADC technologies, with key projects like CS2009 (a tri-specific antibody) and CS5001 (ROR1 ADC) in clinical trials [22]. - CS2009 has shown promising early efficacy and safety data, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 12.2% in clinical trials [35]. - CS5001 is in clinical 1b phase, demonstrating a 70% ORR in preliminary data, indicating strong potential for further development [18][22]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections indicate a decline in 2025 to 1.95 billion CNY, followed by significant growth to 4.64 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.33 billion CNY in 2027 [5][7]. - The company is expected to narrow its net losses, with a forecasted loss of 0.91 billion CNY for 2024 and 0.23 billion CNY for 2027 [5][7]. 4. Market Context - The global market for immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is projected to grow significantly, reaching 58.53 billion USD in 2025 and expected to exceed 100 billion USD by 2029 [22][25]. - The report highlights the importance of dual-targeting strategies in cancer treatment, which could lead to deeper and more durable responses [22][29].

头部晶圆厂获增资，晶圆代工景气向上 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨钟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525080001 | | | yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn | | 陈福栋 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524100001 | | | CHENFUDONG847@pingan.com.cn | | 徐勇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060519090004 | | | XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn | | 徐碧云 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523070002 | | | XUBIYUN372@pingan.com.cn | | 郭冠君 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524050003 | 行 业 报 告 行业点评 GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 事项： 近日中芯国际公告，中芯南方注册资本由65亿美元增加至100.773亿美元，中 芯控股持有的中芯南方股权增长到41.561%。 平安观点： 电子 2025年12月30日 行 业 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend due to clear domestic policy, strong economic growth momentum, and relatively loose market liquidity[3] - Investors are advised to actively position for the spring market, focusing on sectors with improving performance and benefiting from policies[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - BeiGene (688235.SH): Global sales of its core product, Zanubrutinib, reached $2.78 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.2%[4] - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ): The storage cycle is on the rise, and the company is expected to benefit from the L3 autonomous driving market[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): The company is a leading domestic computing power provider, with revenue maintaining rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2025[18] - Daotong Technology (688208.SH): The company has seen rapid revenue growth and is advancing its AI strategy[26] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ): The company ranks among the top three globally in household storage cell shipments in the first three quarters of 2025[32] - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ): The gross margin for wind turbine and component business reached 7.97% in the first half of 2025, showing significant improvement[39] - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH): The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and increased production from new mining projects[46] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increased production[52] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): The company reported a 120.7% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH): The company has maintained a high dividend yield, exceeding 3% since 2018[65]