证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融|红利资产月报（2025 年 5 月） 5 月银行涨幅居前，股息策略仍具吸引力 行业研究 银行 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 141,851.64 | 14.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 98,289.06 | 12.51 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 6.2% | 16.7% | 30.8% | | ...

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0526 - 0601): Cross - Half - Year Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Allocation Opportunities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In June, pay attention to the roll - over pressure of certificates of deposit. Although the cross - half - year capital risk is limited, the supply - demand structure may weaken. Consider increasing allocation when the 1Y state - owned and joint - stock bank certificate of deposit pricing is above 1.7% [2][47] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Maturity Structure Lengthens - From May 26th to June 1st, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 66.95 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1.677 billion yuan (compared with 2.49 billion yuan last week). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 42% to 55%, and that of joint - stock banks remained at 14%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose from 28% to 59%, and the weighted issuance maturity lengthened to 8.88 months (previously 6.20 months). From June 2nd to June 8th, the maturity scale decreased to 66.495 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 1.222 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management is the Main Buyer in the Secondary Market, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Declines Slightly - In the secondary market, wealth management products were the main buyers, with a weekly net purchase of 80.935 billion yuan. The net purchase of wealth management outsourcing (other products) increased from 32.957 billion yuan to 85.483 billion yuan, and state - owned banks' net purchase increased from 9.739 billion yuan to 37.575 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased slightly from about 93% to 91% [2][14] Valuation: Primary and Secondary Pricing Continues to Fluctuate at a High Level - In primary pricing, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated at a high level overall. The 1M pricing rose slightly to 1.67%, 3M, 6M, and 9M products increased by 0 - 2bp, and the 1Y product decreased by 1bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks narrowed by 1bp, at the 11% historical quantile. The 1Y credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.72bp to 13.00bp, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.45bp to 10.00bp. In secondary yields, the 1M yield of AAA - rated certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the rest continued to fluctuate. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened, at the 14% historical quantile [2] Comparison: Cross - Half - Year Capital Risk is Limited, Focus on Roll - Over Situation - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds increased slightly. The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 9.77bp to 11.98bp, and that with R007:15DMA rose from 7.07bp to 8.27bp. The spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds widened slightly to 24.98bp, remaining at about the 5% quantile; the spread with China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 1bp to 17.50bp, and the quantile decreased to 13%. The spread between AAA short - and medium - term notes and certificates of deposit changed from an inverted 1.08bp to 1.77bp, and the quantile rose to around 7% [35]

证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 5 月行业销量复苏，全年销量展望乐观 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 5 月行业销量有所恢复，6 月车企加大年中冲刺营销力度，预计终端销售维持较好水平， 我们对全年销量依然乐观，预计全年零售增速 5.2%、批发增速 8.4%，后续随经济预期稳 定、政策发力、新车上市，销量水平有望维持在较好水平，尤其 20 万元以上高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of May, the impact of the rainy season continued to expand, and the traditional off - season effect became more prominent. Food prices remained stable, export freight rates increased due to port congestion, industrial product prices mostly declined, investment demand was weak, new home sales showed an end - of - month rush, and second - hand home sales momentum weakened [4][35]. - In the short term, the impact of the rainy season and the traditional off - season continued to be released. The May PMI showed a mild recovery, and the risk of repeated external tariff policies still existed, which supported the bond market. Attention should be paid to the export data in early June and the potential "expectation gap". In the future, observe the indicators of freight volume and freight rates in June's "rush to export" and the implementation of domestic policy - based financial tools and infrastructure high - frequency performance [4][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related - Food prices basically remained stable. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the decline narrowing. Vegetable prices increased by 1.3% week - on - week, turning from a decline to an increase. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was flat week - on - week, and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.02% week - on - week [9]. (2) Import and Export - related - The congestion at US and European ports pushed up freight rates. The CCFI index increased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 30.7% week - on - week. In the European route, the shipping demand was stable, and the spot market booking price increased. In the North American route, the "rush to export" continued to drive high shipping demand, with some ports congested and route freight rates rising by over 40%. From May 19th to May 25th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase remaining the same as the previous week [12]. - The BDI index remained stable week - on - week, and the CDFI index increased for two consecutive weeks. The freight rates of different ship types in the international dry bulk shipping market showed a differentiated trend [12]. (3) Industry - related - The price of thermal coal stabilized with a narrowing decline. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.03% week - on - week. Although high - temperature weather in the north supported coal demand, heavy rainfall in the south squeezed thermal power. Some coal mines tightened supply at the end of the month, and the port coal price tended to be stable [16]. - The decline of rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 0.7% week - on - week. The supply of five major steel products increased, but the housing construction demand was weak, and the price declined due to high supply and slow inventory reduction [16]. - Copper prices turned from a decline to an increase. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 0.9% week - on - week respectively. Macro - favorable factors such as the extension of the EU tariff deadline and the possible suspension of tariff policies boosted market sentiment, but the high copper price restricted downstream procurement and limited the price increase [22]. - The spot price of glass fluctuated downward. Due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival and the rainy season in the south, downstream enterprises had limited stocking willingness, and most manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory [22]. (4) Investment - related - The decline of cement prices continued to widen. The weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 2.0% week - on - week. Rainy weather in South and East China led to weak market demand and low enterprise shipments [26]. - The sales of new homes in 30 cities increased week - on - week, possibly due to the end - of - month rush effect. From May 23rd to May 29th, the transaction area of new homes increased by 14.5% week - on - week and decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 7.7% week - on - week, and the year - on - year increase further narrowed, indicating a weakening momentum [27]. (5) Consumption - related - From May 1st to May 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 16% year - on - year (17% in April), and increased by 9% month - on - month. The wholesale sales of passenger cars increased by 17% year - on - year and decreased by 1% month - on - month [28]. - Crude oil prices continued to decline. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively. The planned accelerated production increase of 8 major OPEC + oil - producing countries and the weakening of crude oil demand expectations under tariff policy uncertainty continued to suppress oil prices [3][28].

证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20250526-20250601） 5 月制造业 PMI 回升，工程机械资金面加速 推荐（维持） 好转 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 机械 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523020001 证券分析师：丁祎 邮箱：dingyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523030001 证券分析师：胡明柱 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 65.78 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 3.01 | 31.06 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the company Westair, highlighting its undervaluation in the global general aviation manufacturing sector [1][12]. Core Insights - Westair's aircraft deliveries in Q1 have doubled year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with a total of 150 aircraft delivered, capturing a 23.9% market share globally [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the industrial drone sector, particularly in emergency response, logistics, and inspection applications, driven by recent government policies [2][16]. - The report identifies key players in the industrial drone supply chain, including manufacturers, suppliers, and operational service providers, and highlights their strategic importance in the low-altitude economy [3][21]. Summary by Sections Westair Performance - In Q1, Westair delivered 150 aircraft, a 100% increase from the previous year, and is projected to maintain a significant market share in the upcoming quarters [1][11]. - The average selling price of Westair's SR2X series has increased by 26% compared to 2021, indicating a shift towards higher-end consumer attributes [1][12]. Industrial Drone Market - The industrial drone sector has seen increased market attention, particularly after recent government initiatives aimed at promoting low-altitude economic applications [2][16]. - The report outlines various applications for industrial drones, including emergency firefighting, logistics, and inspection, which are expected to yield significant economic benefits [18][21]. Supply Chain Analysis - Key manufacturers identified include Green Energy Huichong and Zongheng Co., focusing on heavy-lift drones and a comprehensive range of industrial drones [3][22]. - The supply chain also includes critical components such as propulsion systems and flight control systems, with companies like Zongshen Power and Zongheng Communication highlighted for their strategic roles [4][40][46]. Application and Market Opportunities - The report discusses the integration of drones in various sectors, including emergency response, logistics, and agriculture, emphasizing the potential for operational efficiencies and cost reductions [50][58]. - Companies like Zhongxin Haizhi and Sichuan Jiuzhou are noted for their collaborative efforts in establishing low-altitude logistics networks and emergency response systems [50][58]. Market Performance Indicators - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a weekly increase of 3.8%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the low-altitude economy [10][64]. - Individual stock performances reveal significant gains for companies like Zongheng Co. and Westair, with increases of 26% and 25% respectively in the recent week [10][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [31]. Core Insights - The communication industry has shown resilience, with a weekly increase of 1.53%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.61 percentage points [9][10]. - Nvidia's FY26Q1 financial results indicate strong revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 69.18%, reaching $44.062 billion, driven by data center and gaming segments [16][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of the computing power industry chain, with a long-term positive outlook for both domestic and overseas markets [8][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,140.08 billion yuan [1]. - The industry has experienced a year-to-date decline of 4.12%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 2.41% [9]. Performance Metrics - The communication sector's PE-TTM is reported at 29.16, compared to 12.46 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 30.20 for the ChiNext index [5]. - The report notes that the communication sector's performance ranks 8th among all primary industries for the week and 21st for the year [10]. Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia's data center revenue reached $39 billion in Q1, a 73% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the Blackwell architecture [18]. - The gaming and AIPC segments generated $3.8 billion in revenue, reflecting a 42% increase, supported by the widespread adoption of Blackwell technology [19]. - The automotive segment saw a revenue increase of 72% year-on-year, totaling $567 million, driven by strong demand for autonomous driving solutions [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in various segments, including: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom [25]. - Optical modules and components: NewEase, Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang [25]. - Military and satellite communication: Haige Communication, Shanghai Hanyun, 712 [25]. - Equipment manufacturers: Gongjin Co., Ltd., with additional attention to Ziguang Group, ZTE, and Ruijie Networks [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the magnetic sensor industry, highlighting its potential growth driven by robotics and automotive applications [1]. Core Insights - The magnetic sensor market is expected to grow from USD 2.9 billion in 2023 to USD 3.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4% [4][29]. - Key applications driving growth include automotive electronics, industrial automation, and consumer electronics, with significant increases in sensor usage in electric and intelligent vehicles [6][29]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that leading international firms dominate the high-end market, while domestic manufacturers are accelerating their technological advancements and market share [7][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Magnetic Sensors: Core Perception Devices in the Smart Era - Magnetic sensors are essential for non-contact measurement of physical quantities like displacement and current, offering advantages in reliability and cost-effectiveness [11][13]. - The market is primarily dominated by Hall effect sensors, which hold a 64% market share, while TMR sensors are expected to gain traction due to their high sensitivity and low power consumption [16][18]. 2. Emerging Applications Driving Market Growth - Robotics: High-precision magnetic sensors are critical for joint control in humanoid robots, with the global humanoid robot market projected to reach USD 15.1 billion by 2030 [31][39]. - Automotive Electronics: The shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles is expected to double the number of magnetic sensors used per vehicle, increasing from 30-50 in traditional vehicles to 80-100 in hybrids and electric vehicles [46][49]. - New Energy: The recovery of the solar energy sector is anticipated to boost demand for TMR sensors in photovoltaic inverters [29][31]. 3. Competitive Landscape and Domestic Progress - The top five global manufacturers hold over 70% of the market share, with Allegro leading at 23% [7][29]. - Domestic companies like Naxin Microelectronics are making strides in technology and market presence, with new product launches and acquisitions enhancing their competitive edge [7][29]. 4. Related Companies - Naxin Microelectronics (688052) is highlighted for its revenue growth driven by automotive and robotics applications [4][7]. - Canrui Technology (688061) is noted for its dual focus on smart sensing and power management, actively pursuing high-end market opportunities [4][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued to fluctuate this week, with the yield of credit bonds showing a divergent trend. The yield of medium - and short - term notes within 1y increased by 3 - 4BP, while the yield of 7y medium - and short - term notes decreased by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performed relatively better, with the credit spread of 7y varieties narrowing by 3 - 4BP [1][9]. - Looking forward, the tariff policy may fluctuate, and the money market is unlikely to be significantly looser in the short term. The bond market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to focus on certain coupon opportunities. For investors with weak liability - side stability, they can focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties with relatively controllable risks and allocate some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For those with strong liability - side stability, they can allocate long - term varieties, but it is advisable to prioritize the coupon strategy [2][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the central bank's OMO continued net injection. Due to factors such as the reduction of bank deposit rates, the maturity of certificates of deposit, and cross - month disturbances, the money market tightened briefly. There were signs of bond - selling by banks to realize floating profits, leading to an increase in bond - fund redemption sentiment, with insurance being the main net redeemer. The US tariff policy also changed, affecting the bond market sentiment. Overall, the bond market fluctuated, and the yield of credit bonds diverged [1][9]. - It was previously suggested that the spreads of short - term varieties within 2y were compressed to an extreme level, while there was still room for medium - and long - term varieties, and this view remains unchanged this week. Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry [2][13]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 27, 5 wealth - management companies joined the Insurance Asset Management Association, which may become an industry self - regulatory organization covering the entire bank - insurance asset management industry [3][19]. - On May 28, Cinda Asset visited the Guizhou Regulatory Bureau of the Ministry of Finance, and the two parties will cooperate on aspects such as real - economy development, state - owned enterprise reform, real - estate relief, industrial upgrading, and asset revitalization [3][19]. - On May 28, Changchun Rural Commercial Bank postponed the redemption of its secondary capital bond "20 Changchun Rural Commercial Secondary 01" by three months, which may reflect its pressure on capital adequacy ratio [3][20]. - On May 29, Moody's maintained the issuer ratings of 13 urban investment companies with a negative outlook, mainly considering factors such as the slowdown of China's potential economic growth, foreign - trade tensions, and local - fiscal pressure [3][20]. - On May 30, 9 credit - bond ETFs were officially included in the repurchase collateral pool, and the business may take effect on June 6. This will help improve market liquidity and trading activity, and meet the diversified investment needs of institutional investors [4][21]. 3.3 Secondary Market - The yield and spread of credit bonds showed a divergent trend, with the spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performing relatively better. For medium - and short - term notes, the yield of 1y varieties increased by 3 - 4BP, and the yield of 7y varieties decreased by 3 - 4BP, while the yields of other varieties fluctuated within a narrow range. The spreads of 1 - 2y varieties widened by 0 - 2BP, and the spreads of 3y and above varieties generally narrowed by 0 - 4BP [9][24]. - In the urban investment bond market, the yields of 2 - 5y AA(2) and below implicit - rating varieties decreased by 0 - 6BP, while the yields of other varieties generally increased by 1 - 4BP. The credit spreads showed a divergent trend. With the arrival of replacement bond funds in 2025, the risks in marginal regions may be further mitigated [24]. - In the real - estate bond market, medium - and long - term low - grade varieties performed prominently. The yields of 3 - 5y AA implicit - rating varieties decreased by 14 - 18BP, and the spreads of relevant varieties also narrowed significantly. The current yield of real - estate bonds is still attractive [25]. - In the cyclical bond market, the trends of coal bonds and steel bonds were similar. Except for some varieties with yield decreases, the yields of other varieties generally increased. The spreads of 4 - 5y varieties generally narrowed [25]. - In the financial bond market, the performance of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds was weak, while the medium - and long - term varieties of insurance sub - bonds performed relatively better [26]. 3.4 Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 253.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 48 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 35.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 5.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity - The trading activity in the inter - bank market decreased slightly, while the trading activity in the exchange market increased slightly [6][7]. 3.6 Rating Adjustment - This week, the ratings of 1 entity were downgraded, and the ratings of 11 entities were upgraded [6][7].