证 券 研 究 报 告 安孚科技（603031）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 主业经营稳健，盈利能力持续增强 目标价：52.2 元 事项： 安孚科技发布 2025 年半年报，公司 2025H1 实现营收 24.3 亿元，YoY+5.0%； 实现归母净利润 1.1 亿元，YoY+14.4%。经折算，公司 2025Q2 单季度营收 10.5 亿元，YoY+3.9%；实现归母净利润 0.4 亿元，YoY+24.3% 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 4,638 | 5,119 | 5,600 | 6,059 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 168 | 301 | 439 | 486 | | 同比增速(%) | 45.2% | 78.7% | 46.0% | 10.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.67 | 1.19 | 1.74 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiangshan Oupai, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 868 million yuan, down 39.82% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10 million yuan, down 90.39% year-on-year [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on earnings, the company is making progress in channel transformation and new business development, which are expected to stabilize growth in the future [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 868 million yuan, a decrease of 39.82% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10 million yuan, down 90.39% year-on-year. The gross margin was 17.6%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points [2][7]. - **Future Projections**: The company is projected to have revenues of 2.334 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 22.2%. The net profit is expected to be 69 million yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS for 2025 is projected to be 0.39 yuan, with a PE ratio of 38 times [2][8]. Business Strategy and Market Position - **Channel Transformation**: The company is actively transforming its channel strategy, reducing direct engineering channels to control accounts receivable risks, while expanding its agency and franchise service channels, which have shown strong growth [2][7]. - **International Expansion**: The company is focusing on international markets, particularly in the Middle East, by establishing subsidiaries in regions like Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong [2][7]. Valuation - The target price for Jiangshan Oupai is set at 17.9 yuan per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huawang Technology (605377) [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 shows a revenue decline of 16.4% year-on-year, with total revenue of 1.627 billion yuan and a net profit of 156 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year [2][8] - The company is expected to benefit from industry consolidation and has a strong dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.30 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting confidence in future operations [2][8] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as raw material costs stabilize, particularly for titanium dioxide, which has recently decreased [2][8] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3.478 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.7% from 2024, with a net profit of 408 million yuan, down 13.1% [4][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.73 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [4][9] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 6.095 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.761 billion yuan by 2027 [9] Market Performance - The company’s stock price target is set at 10.98 yuan, compared to the current price of 9.06 yuan, indicating potential upside [4][8] - The report highlights that Huawang Technology has maintained a competitive edge in the high-end decorative paper market, supported by long-term partnerships with international printing companies [2][8]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 厦门港务（000905）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 拟注入资产焕新颜，盈利能力、红利属性或 双提升 当前价：8.28 元 风险提示：并购整合进度不及预期；经济大幅下滑、腹地经济明显波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 22,147 | 20,679 | 21,133 | 21,417 | | 同比增速(%) | -3.4% | -6.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 200 | 217 | 231 | 264 | | 同比增速(%) | -13.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 14.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.36 | | 市盈率(倍) | 31 | 28 | 27 | 23 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2 ...

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members in favor[29] - The economic growth forecast for this year was raised from 1.4% to 1.6%, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[31] - The dot plot indicates a divided view on future rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 members predicting three or more cuts this year, while one member forecasts a total cut of 150 basis points[41] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Current economic conditions support a "preventive" rate cut, characterized by weakening but not deteriorating employment and economic indicators[4] - The recession risk is low, with the NBER's recession probability at only 0.8%, significantly below historical averages[5] - The personal credit default rate has increased but remains manageable, indicating overall good health in household and banking sectors[4] Group 3: Market Implications - The preventive rate cut is expected to boost equity markets, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors like real estate[6] - The dollar index may experience a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals, while the long-term interest rates may face upward pressure if employment improves or inflation remains high[7] - Domestic monetary policy remains focused internally, with limited necessity for the central bank to follow the Fed's rate cuts due to unclear demand-side improvements[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772) with a target price of 29.52 CNY [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q2 2025 saw significant growth driven by a notable increase in mobile battery sales, with a revenue of 35.99 billion CNY, representing a 29% year-on-year increase [7]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 60.98 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 14% increase compared to the previous year, with a net profit of 1.17 billion CNY, up 15% year-on-year [7]. - The growth in mobile battery sales outpaced the industry, with a 43.28% increase in sales volume, attributed to enhanced market share and deep collaborations with major clients like Apple, Xiaomi, and Huawei [7]. - The focus on low-voltage lithium batteries has led to a significant revenue increase, with the subsidiary Zhejiang Guanyu achieving a revenue of 9.73 billion CNY, a 139.8% increase, primarily from automotive low-voltage and drone battery sales [7]. - The company emphasizes technological advancements, including the development of consumer-grade steel-shell batteries and high-silicon anode batteries, which enhance energy density and market competitiveness [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.4 billion CNY, 11.1 billion CNY, and 17.3 billion CNY respectively, with a target price based on a 30x PE ratio for 2026 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,541 million CNY, 13,807 million CNY, 17,707 million CNY, and 21,558 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 0.8%, 19.6%, 28.2%, and 21.7% [3][8]. - The net profit for the same years is projected to be 430 million CNY, 639 million CNY, 1,114 million CNY, and 1,734 million CNY, with growth rates of 25.0%, 48.5%, 74.3%, and 55.7% respectively [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 1.53 CNY in 2027 [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind power sector: 1) The demand for deep-sea and European offshore wind is expected to benefit the offshore wind industry chain; 2) The prices of main engines have stopped declining and are on the rise, leading to improved profitability; 3) Focus on leading companies in components such as bearings, gearboxes, blades, and castings that have incremental business or overseas market potential [2][22] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of stocks in the industry is 303, with a total market capitalization of 67,702.67 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 60,461.44 billion [4] Wind Turbine Data - During the week, 0.6 GW of offshore wind was tendered in Shandong, with a total of 1.6 GW of wind turbines tendered, including 0.6 GW offshore and 1.0 GW onshore. The average winning bid for onshore wind was 1,476 yuan/kW [10][16] - As of September 12, 2025, the total tendered capacity for wind power this year is 62.4 GW, with 4.8 GW offshore and 57.7 GW onshore [10] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the industry have varying EPS and PE ratios for 2025E, with 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable) rated as "Strong Buy" and 明阳智能 (Mingyang Smart Energy) also rated as "Strong Buy" [3] Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 19.4%, 28.3%, and 71.4% respectively, indicating strong growth [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable), 明阳智能 (Mingyang Smart Energy), and others that are positioned to benefit from the trends in the offshore wind market [22]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 "风险管理式"降息落地 ——美联储 9 月议息会议点评 债券日报 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 联系人：李阳 邮箱：liyang3@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250917》 2025-09-17 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250916》 2025-09-16 《【华创固收】债券发行新范式：福田投控 RWA 债券简析》 2025-09-16 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20250915》 2025-09-15 《【华创固收】"稳增长"预期逐步升温——8 月 经济数据解读》 2025-09-15 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨，美联储年内首次降息落地，将联邦基金利率目标区 间下调 25BP 至 4.0%-4.25%，储备余额利率、贴现利率下调至 4.15%、4.25%。 利率决议公布后，10 年期美债收益率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 642 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, up 46.96%, primarily due to steady sales growth and a decrease in sales expenses compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company has made significant progress in its clinical pipeline, with multiple late-stage candidates advancing rapidly. Notably, the company has achieved a breakthrough in international business development (BD) with Pfizer, securing a record upfront payment of 1.25 billion USD for the exclusive development and commercialization rights of a dual antibody product [6][1]. - The company is actively developing differentiated early-stage pipelines, with innovative targets leading in domestic progress. The first approved IND for BDCA2 monoclonal antibody is currently in Phase I clinical trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) [6]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 4.199 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 251.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.775 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 293.9% [1][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 4.50 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [1][7]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 32.943 billion yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.80% [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 投资摘要： 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 42 期 兑现降息预期，否认降息周期——9 月美联 储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence. —Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand 1. 美联储 9 月份议息会议宣布降息 25 个基点，把联邦基金利率区间从 4.25%- 4.5%降至 4%-4.25%。 2. 美联储上调美国经济增长预期和通胀预期，2025 年经济增长预期值上调 0.2%至 1.6%，2026 年核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.2%至 2.6%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或从 2 次升至 3 次，2026 年和 2027 年 降息次数均保持在 1 次不变。 4. 美联储认为高关税向通胀水平的传导力度有所减弱，同时强化对于劳动力 市场 ...