宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 国务院部署落实经济工作会议精神 ——政策周观察第 60 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下政策： 1、中央经济工作会议精神落实解读 1）12 月 19 日，总理主持召开国常会，对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部 署作出安排，提出"要靠前发力抓落实，以扎实有效的工作不断巩固拓展经济 稳中向好势头，确保'十五五'开好局、起好步"，去年 12 月 16 日国常会表 述为"要靠前抓好落实，能早则早、宁早勿晚，齐心协力、积极作为，以扎实 有效的工作为全局多作贡献"。 2）12 月 15 日，中国证监会党委传达学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神。"持续 增强市场内在稳定性……引导优质公司持续加大分红回购力度。全面推动落实 中长期资金长周期考核机制，大力发展权益类公募基金，推动指数化投资高质 量发展"。 3）12 月 16 日，中央财办有关负责同志详解 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神， 提出"文旅、养老、托育等服务消费需求旺盛"，"在科技创新、产业升级、基 础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项……加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅 游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to Hesai Technology (02525.HK) with a target price of HKD 235.93, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price of HKD 175.10 [3][9]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR technology, with a comprehensive product matrix covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets. The company has achieved significant milestones, including being the first to deliver over 10,000 units of LiDAR in a month and achieving Non-GAAP profitability in 2024 [6][14]. - The report highlights the expected rapid growth in the LiDAR market, driven by the increasing adoption of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, with projections indicating that the global automotive LiDAR market could reach USD 9 billion by 2030 and USD 14.8 billion by 2035 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hesai Technology was founded in 2014 and has established itself as a leader in the LiDAR industry, focusing on high-performance products. The company has developed eight major product series, including AT, ET, FT, Pandar, OT, XT, QT, and JT, catering to various applications in the automotive and robotics sectors [6][21]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of CNY 2.08 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 5.82 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.4% [2][9]. LiDAR Industry - The LiDAR market is expected to expand rapidly, with the domestic installation of LiDAR units projected to reach 2.5 million by 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 9.0%. The report notes that the price of LiDAR units is expected to decrease to around CNY 1,450, which will further drive market growth [6][7]. - The report identifies key technological advancements in LiDAR, including the transition to mixed solid-state and full solid-state technologies, which are anticipated to enhance performance and reduce costs [7][8]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes Hesai's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, a leading manufacturing system, and a diverse customer base that includes major players in the ADAS and robotics sectors. The company has secured significant contracts with top automotive manufacturers and is recognized as a preferred supplier for leading Robotaxi companies [6][8][9]. - The expected growth in the robotics LiDAR market is highlighted, with projections indicating that the market for robotic LiDAR solutions could grow from USD 600 million in 2024 to USD 5.1 billion by 2029, representing a CAGR of 56% [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Hesai's net profit will turn positive in 2025, reaching CNY 358 million, and is expected to grow to CNY 887 million by 2027. Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase significantly, from CNY 478 million in 2025 to CNY 995 million in 2027 [2][9]. - The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of CNY 33.4 billion [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, emphasizing high dividends and capital operations as dual engines for growth [1]. Core Insights - The transportation sector has shown mixed performance, with the overall industry ranking 8th among 31 sectors in terms of growth, having increased by 1.68% from December 1 to December 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.76 percentage points [12][13]. - The report highlights that the dividend yield for major segments within the transportation sector, including highways, railways, and ports, remains in the 3%-4% range, with coal and banking sectors leading in yield [27][21]. - The report identifies several high-dividend stocks in the A and H-share markets, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu Expressway (6.0% yield) and China Merchants Port (5.8% yield) as attractive investment opportunities [21][22]. Monthly Market Performance - The report notes that the performance of dividend assets in December 2025 was generally underwhelming, with highway, railway, and port segments showing cumulative changes of -1.45%, +1.12%, and +1.21%, respectively [13][11]. - The average daily transaction volume for ports increased by 26.7% year-on-year, while highway and railway transaction volumes decreased by 5.5% and 34.8%, respectively [26][23]. - The report indicates that the low interest rate environment continues to support the market, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable around 1.83% [25][23]. Capital Operations - Sichuan Chengyu plans to acquire 85% of Hubei Jingyi Expressway for 2.409 billion yuan in cash, shifting from a stock issuance to a cash purchase to avoid equity dilution [32]. - Ninghu Expressway is increasing its investment in the Jiangsu Longtan Bridge project by 3.26964 billion yuan, enhancing its stake in the project [34]. - Qingdao Port has terminated its cash acquisition of the Rizhao Port oil terminal due to potential business impacts from legal issues, prioritizing shareholder interests [35]. Highway Sector Tracking - In October 2025, highway passenger traffic was reported at 975 million, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, while freight traffic showed a slight increase of 0.1% [36]. - The report highlights the revenue performance of key companies, such as Gansu Expressway, which reported a slight decline in toll revenue for November 2025 [44]. Railway Sector Tracking - Railway passenger volume reached 410 million in October 2025, marking a 10.1% increase year-on-year, while freight volume showed a modest increase of 0.6% [52]. - The report notes that the Daqin Railway achieved a freight volume of 37.22 million tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [59]. Port Sector Tracking - The report indicates that monitored port cargo throughput reached 1.078 billion tons over four weeks, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [63]. - Container throughput for the year-to-date reached 31.0469 million TEUs, reflecting a 7.7% increase compared to the previous year [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure policy is expected to significantly boost the tourism and hotel sectors, leading to a surge in market expectations for Hainan tourism. There has been a substantial year-on-year increase in flight and hotel bookings for the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, particularly in Sanya, where the demand for cross-year travel is notably high. The hotel and tourism sectors have shown strong performance, leading the consumer services industry, reflecting positive market expectations for the long-term benefits of the closure policy [4][34]. - The report identifies several key investment opportunities, including hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resource services with clear industry trends, the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, and internet platforms integrating online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.66%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a decline of 0.15%. The CSI 300 index also fell by 0.28%, while the consumer services index rose by 3.76% [7][24]. - The report highlights that the hotel sector saw a weekly increase of 2.70%, while the tourism and scenic areas sector increased by 3.42% [18]. Notable Announcements - Key announcements include a report from Beijing Human Resources showing a shareholding reduction by a major shareholder and a significant increase in revenue and net profit for China Education Holdings [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [28]. Core Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations aim to deepen the alignment between asset and liability management, enhancing the industry's long-term stability and operational capabilities [16]. - The report highlights that the recent decline in long-term interest rates has put pressure on net investment returns, posing potential "spread loss" challenges for the industry [8]. - The report notes that the head-listed insurance companies are expected to manage their liability costs better than smaller firms, which may face greater pressure due to cost management issues [16]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations clarify asset-liability management goals, principles, governance structures, policies, procedures, and establish regulatory and monitoring indicators [3]. - Key changes include institutional integration, improved organizational structures, and optimized calculation standards for regulatory indicators [3]. Monitoring Indicators - Regulatory indicators for property insurance companies focus on cost-benefit matching, duration matching, and liquidity matching, with specific minimum standards set for various metrics [4][5][6]. - Life insurance companies have indicators such as effective duration gap and comprehensive investment income coverage ratio, with strict monitoring requirements [4]. Investment Performance - As of H1 2025, the average net investment return for listed insurance companies is approximately 3.5%, with significant variations among companies [8]. - The report indicates a notable decline in new business costs for life insurance companies, driven by adjustments in preset interest rates and unified pricing strategies [12][15]. Strategic Implications - The report suggests that the new regulations may lead to a trend of controlling the scale of whole life insurance business sales and increasing allocations to long-duration bonds [16]. - It is anticipated that the pricing of new insurance products will become more cautious as companies focus on cost-benefit matching [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye with a target price of 215 yuan [1] Core Views - The company held a conference to review its achievements and shortcomings for 2025 and to plan for 2026, introducing a new zodiac-themed product [1] - The company aims to solidify its leading position in the 1,000 yuan price range and enhance its marketing strategies, focusing on product promotion and channel optimization [5] - The report suggests that the company is on the right path to reversing its current challenges by adopting a flexible strategy to boost sales and market share [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 89,175 million, 72,234 million, 72,533 million, and 77,794 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, -19.0%, 0.4%, and 7.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 31,853 million, 23,507 million, 23,882 million, and 26,317 million for the same years, with growth rates of 5.4%, -26.2%, 1.6%, and 10.2% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.21, 6.06, 6.15, and 6.78 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1] Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in its marketing activities, with over 20,000 tasting events held and a digital membership base exceeding 30 million [5] - The company plans to enhance its market presence by targeting specific regions and demographics, including younger consumers and international markets [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on improving its channel partnerships and expanding its retail presence, with plans to add new specialty stores while eliminating underperforming ones [5] - A performance evaluation system will be implemented to enhance operational efficiency and accountability within the organization [5]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1215-1221）：跨年后或进入"供 需双强"格局 债券周报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801) [1] Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a radio frequency business asset group from its controlling shareholder, aiming to optimize its industrial layout and enhance its supply chain [1][3] - This acquisition is expected to improve the company's competitiveness and industry position in the radio frequency sector, which primarily serves military markets [2] - The transaction aligns with the company's strategic goal of extending its capabilities from radio frequency modules to integrated solutions, thereby strengthening its market position [2][3] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 4,178 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 4,335 million, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 194 million, with a decline of 3.0% year-on-year. By 2025, the net profit is expected to decrease further to 175 million, a drop of 10.1% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.19 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 90 [4] Business Impact - The acquisition is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's performance, with the radio frequency business expected to account for 14% of the company's revenue and 8% of its profit in 2024 [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the contribution is expected to rise to 18% of revenue and 44% of profit [2] - The transaction is seen as a significant step in the context of state-owned enterprise reform, indicating strong support from the group for the listed company [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with a focus on prioritizing mid-to-short-term coupon assets for investment [1][10] - The current yield for 1-year products is in the range of 1.72%-1.80%, with spreads below the central level since 2024 by 13-19 basis points [2][24] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.83%-2.10%, and spreads are in the range of 19-42 basis points, with a recommendation to prioritize mid-to-short-term coupon assets due to high demand from funds and wealth management [2][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the 4-5 year products have yields ranging from 2.0%-2.35% and spreads between 26-55 basis points, with a marginal recovery in coupon configuration value [3][26] - For products over 5 years, yields are between 2.23%-2.76% with spreads from 24-64 basis points, indicating a need for cautious trading participation due to market volatility [3][26] - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with credit spreads showing weak compression momentum [6][24] Group 3 - Key policies include the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizing the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and the second meeting of bondholders for "22 Vanke MTN004" [4][28] - The report mentions that nearly 70% of bond-issuing entities in Henan have completed the repayment of hidden debts, indicating significant progress in debt resolution and market transformation [4][28] - The report also notes the first appearance of Guizhou's municipal state-owned enterprise in the capital market, marking a significant event in the current round of debt resolution [4][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 19, the convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks and rose, with an increase in valuation [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.38% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.79% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.40%, large - cap value fell 0.17%, mid - cap growth rose 1.05%, mid - cap value rose 0.91%, small - cap growth rose 0.97%, and small - cap value rose 1.07% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.204 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.42%; the total trading volume of Wind All A was 1.748742 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.29%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.444 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.48bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.77 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 192.56 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 119.54 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.14 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 55.32%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58pct; the largest change occurred in the 110 - 120 (including 120) range, with a proportion of 9.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5pct; there was 1 bond with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 131.51 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 32.51%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14pct; the overall weighted par value was 99.53 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27pct; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 84.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10pct [2]. Industry Performance - On December 19, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising. In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were commerce and retail (+3.66%), light industry manufacturing (+2.17%), and environmental protection (+2.06%); the top three industries in terms of decline were banking (-0.44%), electronics (-0.29%), and coal (-0.29%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 23 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+4.16%), building materials (+2.40%), and building decoration (+1.65%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.26%), national defense and military industry (-0.16%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.53% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.49%, the technology sector increased by 0.21%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.46%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.5pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.33pct, the technology sector decreased by 0.96pct, the large - consumption sector decreased by 1.8pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.86pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.65% month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.69%, the technology sector increased by 0.99%, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.19%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.47% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 2.1pct month - on - month, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.75pct, the technology sector increased by 0.27pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.56pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.79pct [4].