证 券 研 究 报 告 投资摘要： 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 42 期 兑现降息预期，否认降息周期——9 月美联 储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence. —Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand 1. 美联储 9 月份议息会议宣布降息 25 个基点，把联邦基金利率区间从 4.25%- 4.5%降至 4%-4.25%。 2. 美联储上调美国经济增长预期和通胀预期，2025 年经济增长预期值上调 0.2%至 1.6%，2026 年核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.2%至 2.6%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或从 2 次升至 3 次，2026 年和 2027 年 降息次数均保持在 1 次不变。 4. 美联储认为高关税向通胀水平的传导力度有所减弱，同时强化对于劳动力 市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the international expansion of Chinese Baijiu [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while Chinese Baijiu has been exported for over 40 years, it has not truly "gone global," with only 6.9 billion yuan in exports in 2024. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in international markets, particularly in the context of rising global influence and the presence of a significant overseas Chinese population [4][7][8]. - The report identifies the need for Baijiu companies to address consumer decision-making processes and to enhance their marketing strategies to penetrate international markets effectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu Going Global: A Potential New Trend? - The report discusses the historical context of Baijiu exports, noting that initial attempts were limited due to cultural and taste differences. Recent years have seen increased internationalization efforts from leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye [8][9]. - The report outlines the current state of Baijiu exports, indicating a stable export volume of around 15,000 tons, with a focus on premium products driving growth [12][18]. 2. Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies various challenges faced by Baijiu in international markets, including differing alcohol standards, cultural barriers, and limited consumer awareness. However, it also points out new opportunities arising from China's growing global influence and the potential market among overseas Chinese [7][8][9]. 3. Pathways to Success - The report suggests that Baijiu companies should focus on understanding consumer preferences and building brand narratives to enhance market penetration. It emphasizes the importance of targeted marketing strategies in regions like East Asia, Southeast Asia, and emerging markets [7][8][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown strong international strategies and brand recognition. It also highlights the potential of other companies like Fenjiu and Laojiao, which are diversifying their product offerings and improving channel management [7][8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wind power industry, indicating a high level of optimism regarding its continued growth and profitability improvement [2]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with significant increases in installed capacity and profitability. In the first half of 2025, new wind power installations reached 51.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% [9][22]. - The average bidding prices for onshore wind projects have started to recover, while offshore wind prices have stabilized. The average bidding price for onshore wind in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 1459 and 1543 CNY/kW, respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [15][22]. - The wind power sector's revenue and net profit have shown continuous growth, with total revenue of 2298.1 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, up 24.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 126.9 billion CNY, up 15.01% year-on-year [24][30]. - Inventory and contract liabilities in the sector have reached their highest levels in five years, indicating a positive outlook for continued industry growth [30][38]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The wind power industry is witnessing a robust increase in installed capacity, with both onshore and offshore installations contributing significantly to growth [9][22]. - The bidding volume for wind turbines has increased, with a total of 71.9 GW of bids in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong market demand [9][22]. Financial Performance - The wind power sector's core companies achieved a revenue of 1364.4 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a 26.84% increase year-on-year and a 46.11% increase quarter-on-quarter [24][30]. - The net profit for the sector in Q2 2025 was 77.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.99% [24][30]. Company Analysis - Key companies in the wind power sector, such as Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology, are projected to see significant earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2025 at 2.29 CNY and 1.04 CNY, respectively [3][22]. - The report highlights specific investment opportunities in companies benefiting from the offshore wind demand and improving profitability in the component supply chain [30][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, most sectors in the convertible bond market rose, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.57%, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, with the proportion of high - price bonds rising. The valuation also increased, with the conversion premium rate and overall weighted parity showing certain changes [2]. - In the stock market, more than half of the underlying stock sectors rose. The top three rising sectors in the A - share market were power equipment, automobiles, and household appliances, while the top three falling sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commercial and retail, and social services. In the convertible bond market, the top three rising sectors were light manufacturing, power equipment, and electronics, and the top three falling sectors were transportation, beauty care, and household appliances [3]. Summaries by Directory Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 479.44, up 0.57% daily, 0.42% weekly, 1.79% monthly, and 15.65% since the beginning of 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37% daily, 1.81% weekly, 5.72% monthly, and 15.65% since the beginning of 2025. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% daily, 5.63% weekly, 15.40% monthly, and 26.89% since the beginning of 2025. The ChiNext Index closed at 3147.35, up 1.95% daily, 9.74% weekly, 27.44% monthly, and 46.96% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - In terms of market style, large - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.15%, large - cap value stocks fell 0.03%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 0.98%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.02%, small - cap growth stocks rose 1.07%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.15% [1][8]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume in the convertible bond market was 80.992 billion yuan, a 3.63% increase compared to the previous day, and the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2402.924 billion yuan, a 1.51% increase compared to the previous day. The net out - flow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 32.839 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1.78bp to 1.83% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 131.07 yuan, a 0.69% increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 183.62 yuan, up 7.66%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.21 yuan, up 0.24%; and the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 126.68 yuan, up 0.73% [2]. - The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan parity fitting was 29.21%, a 0.38pct increase compared to the previous day. The overall weighted parity was 102.13 yuan, a 0.38% increase compared to the previous day. The conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 11.14%, up 2.39pct; the conversion premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 83.79%, up 0.43pct; and the conversion premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 21.80%, down 0.47pct [2]. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three rising sectors were power equipment (+2.55%), automobiles (+2.05%), and household appliances (+1.64%); the top three falling sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.02%), commercial and retail (-0.98%), and social services (-0.86%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising sectors were light manufacturing (+2.70%), power equipment (+2.05%), and electronics (+1.83%); the top three falling sectors were transportation (-0.28%), beauty care (-0.19%), and household appliances (-0.12%) [3]. - In terms of different sectors: - Closing price: The large - cycle sector rose 0.66%, the manufacturing sector rose 1.91%, the technology sector rose 1.36%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.18%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.55% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector rose 0.5pct, the manufacturing sector rose 0.034pct, the technology sector rose 0.49pct, the large - consumption sector fell 0.1pct, and the large - finance sector rose 0.32pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector rose 0.44%, the manufacturing sector rose 1.72%, the technology sector rose 1.01%, the large - consumption sector fell 0.46%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.31% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector rose 0.8pct, the manufacturing sector rose 2.7pct, the technology sector rose 2.0pct, the large - consumption sector rose 0.19pct, and the large - finance sector rose 0.63pct [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations that the industry index will rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The recent public discourse surrounding prepared dishes has highlighted a significant misunderstanding between consumers and businesses regarding the definition and pricing of these products. Consumers are not opposed to prepared dishes but are concerned about being charged high prices under the guise of freshly made meals [7]. - National standards for prepared dishes have been established, and further detailed regulations are expected to be implemented. The definition of prepared dishes includes pre-packaged meals that do not contain preservatives and require heating or cooking before consumption [7]. - Future policies are anticipated to accelerate the implementation of standards, leading to greater transparency in the restaurant industry regarding the use of prepared dishes. Some restaurants are already taking steps to disclose their cooking processes and ingredient sourcing [7]. - The trend towards a more efficient and standardized food supply chain is expected to continue, with a focus on industrialization in food production. Successful companies will likely adopt high standards for supplier entry, transparent ingredient sourcing, and clear production processes [7]. - Investment recommendations suggest that the acceleration of industry standardization will benefit leading companies. The report highlights potential beneficiaries such as frozen food leader Anjijia and custom meal companies like Baoli, while also noting that lower-end small workshops may gradually exit the market [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,214.68 billion [4]. - The circulating market value is around 46,997.67 billion [4]. Performance Metrics - Absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 26.9%, while relative performance shows a decline of 16.3% [5]. Related Research Reports - Previous reports include insights on the liquor industry and the functional food sector, indicating ongoing trends and opportunities within the food and beverage landscape [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 63.35 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 aligns with previous forecasts, indicating a potential rebound in its main business [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 9.775 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million CNY, down 140.60% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 4.548 billion CNY, reflecting a 42.11% decline year-on-year and a 13.02% decline quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million CNY, a significant drop of 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 27.132 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 969 million CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.82 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 63 [4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.427 billion CNY and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.83% [5]. Business Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial silicon sector, with a focus on cost advantages and market share expansion despite current price declines in industrial silicon and organic silicon [8]. - The company maintains normal operations in organic silicon, with expectations for price recovery due to limited new capacity and strong demand growth in the coming years [8]. - Future growth is anticipated from ongoing capacity expansions, including projects in Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are expected to enhance the company's growth potential once the industry rebounds [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The computer industry is entering a wide fluctuation period, focusing on leading companies and the bottom opportunities in AI+ applications. The report suggests that the industry may experience trends such as reduced R&D expenses, increased revenue share from AI+, and improved domestic levels, with performance expected to reach a turning point in the second half of 2025 [9][10] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index rose by 4.26% during the week of September 8-12, outperforming the ChiNext index by 2.36 percentage points. The top three gainers were Chuangzhong Technology (52.91%), Kaipu Cloud (36.96%), and Xinjun Network (30.81%) [9][13] - The report emphasizes that the themes of stablecoins and DeepSeek are gradually cooling, while domestic application demand and orders are being released, marking a critical window for AI+ applications [9][10] Overseas Market - Oracle's 1QFY2026 financial report showed a significant increase in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), reaching $455 billion, a year-on-year growth of 359%. The growth is attributed to new cloud contracts signed with leading AI companies [11][18] - NVIDIA launched the Rubin CPX, a new generation GPU designed for large-scale contextual processing, which significantly enhances AI system performance [23][26] Domestic Market - Alibaba is increasing its investment in AI and cloud infrastructure, planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in the next three years, which exceeds the total of the past decade. In 1QFY2026, Alibaba Cloud achieved external commercial revenue of 33.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% [30][34] - The Qwen model has entered the global first tier, with significant advancements in AI capabilities, and has become a key player in the open-source model segment [33][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing power companies such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Inspur Information, as well as application companies like Dameng Data and China Software. It also highlights AI+ companies like Kingsoft Office and iFLYTEK as potential investment opportunities [10][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 27.5 [2][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 910 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, and a net profit of USD 95 million, up 54.6% year-on-year [2][9] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong terminal sales and pre-orders due to the US-China tariff tensions, with the OPE segment showing a remarkable revenue increase of 22.8% to USD 602 million [9] - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025 was USD 76.03 million, reflecting a 23.4% year-on-year growth, supported by an increase in gross margin to 33.3% [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: USD 1,774 million - 2025: USD 2,000 million - 2026: USD 2,230 million - 2027: USD 2,447 million - The expected year-on-year growth rates are 28.6% for 2024, 12.7% for 2025, 11.5% for 2026, and 9.7% for 2027 [4][10] - The net profit forecast is: - 2024: USD 112 million - 2025: USD 138 million - 2026: USD 174 million - 2027: USD 197 million [4][10] Strategic Developments - The company has divested from non-core assets, focusing on its main business areas, which include OPE and power tools, and is accelerating the transfer of some production capacity to Vietnam to mitigate trade risks [9] - Capital expenditures for the reporting period amounted to USD 56.3 million, primarily for land acquisition for the Vietnam factory [9] - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 178 days to 161 days year-on-year [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 69.61 CNY [2][8] Core Views - The company experienced revenue and profit declines in H1 2025 due to high gold prices and a high base from the previous year, with revenue down 16.5% year-on-year to 33.36 billion CNY and net profit down 13.1% to 1.22 billion CNY [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting its product offerings and channels, focusing on quality over quantity, with a net increase of 9 marketing outlets in Q2 2025 [8] - The company launched new products targeting younger consumers and is collaborating with Alibaba to develop co-branded products [8] Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 8.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high gold prices affecting consumer demand [8] - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 1.3%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [8] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 16.6 billion CNY, 18.3 billion CNY, and 20.2 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Haier Biomedical (688139) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 2.27% decline in revenue for H1 2025, totaling 1.196 billion yuan, and a 39.09% drop in net profit to 143 million yuan, primarily due to external factors and strategic investments [1][5] - New industries are showing growth, with their revenue share increasing to 47%, reflecting a 7.27% year-on-year growth, particularly in laboratory solutions and smart medication [5] - The overseas business is performing strongly, with a 30.17% increase in overseas revenue to 427 million yuan in H1 2025, while domestic revenue fell by 14.64% to 761 million yuan [5] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,284 million, 2,630 million, 3,061 million, and 3,464 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 0.1%, 15.2%, 16.4%, and 13.2% [1][6] - Net profit projections for the same years are 367 million, 423 million, 508 million, and 585 million yuan, with growth rates of -9.7%, 15.4%, 20.1%, and 15.1% [1][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.15 yuan in 2024A to 1.84 yuan in 2027E [6]