Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronic industry, highlighting a historical high in allocation and overweight ratios for active equity funds [10][24]. Core Insights - The electronic industry saw a record allocation ratio of 19.11% in Q2 2025, with an overweight ratio of 7.73%, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors [10][24]. - The semiconductor sector is emphasized as a key area for investment, driven by domestic supply chain localization and improving fundamentals [27][28]. - AI PCB is identified as a core investment direction due to its high demand and growth potential linked to AI server deployments [18][34]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation - In Q2 2025, the allocation ratio for the electronic industry reached 19.11%, ranking first among all sectors, with a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][24]. - The electronic sector's overweight ratio also reached a historical high of 7.73%, reflecting strong institutional interest [10][24]. Sub-Industry Analysis Semiconductor - The semiconductor sector's allocation ratio was 9.53%, accounting for 53.65% of the total industry allocation, despite a decrease of 0.7 percentage points [24][27]. - Key companies in this sector include SMIC, North Huachuang, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with significant increases in their market values [27][28]. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector's allocation ratio was 4.03%, with a decrease of 0.61 percentage points, reflecting some valuation pressures due to tariff uncertainties [24][31]. - Major players include Xiaomi and Luxshare Precision, with notable growth in their market values despite the overall sector challenges [31][32]. Components - The components sector saw an increase in allocation ratio to 2.92%, with a significant rise of 1.07 percentage points, driven by AI PCB demand [24][34]. - Key companies include Shenghong Technology and Huadian, which experienced substantial growth in their market values [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI PCB, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and the Apple supply chain as key investment areas, anticipating strong growth in ASIC demand and related technologies [18][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as stablecoins, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Views - The overseas Chinese asset earnings season has begun, with a significant increase in risk appetite for Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese stocks, as active funds seek undervalued stocks with low price-to-book ratios [3][10]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional virtual asset exchanges expected to enter the traditional capital markets through IPOs, reverse mergers, and acquisitions [3][10]. - The potential risks for overseas Chinese assets remain, particularly concerning US-China tariff issues, necessitating close monitoring of global tariff negotiations [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking Education - The Chinese education index fell by 0.82% during the period from July 21 to July 25, underperforming compared to major indices [11][21]. - Notable stock performances include Oriental Selection rising by 13.67% and New Oriental falling by 10.03% [11][21]. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index increased by 2.75%, while the MSCI European Luxury Goods and Apparel Index rose by 2.52% during the same period [22][25]. - Key luxury stocks showed mixed results, with Samsonite up by 3.16% and Prada down by 1.94% [22][25]. Coffee and Tea - The Hang Seng Non-Essential Consumer Index rose by 1.30%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [27][30]. - Notable stock performances include Haidilao up by 4.31% and various tea brands experiencing declines [27][30]. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index increased by 1.86%, with Pinduoduo rising by 8.67% and Alibaba declining by 0.17% [30][31]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with significant investments in logistics and marketing by leading platforms [30][31]. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index fell by 1.2%, underperforming compared to other indices [35][39]. - Key stocks like iQIYI and Tencent Music experienced varied performance, with iQIYI up by 2.04% and Tencent Music down by 4.45% [35][39]. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of July 25, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $393.75 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices at $117,482 and $3,765, respectively [41][42]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets, with significant movements in the market [41][42]. Automotive Services - The Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.45%, with notable performances from companies like Zhongsheng Holdings up by 17.27% [49][50]. - The automotive service sector is witnessing growth, with new partnerships and service offerings emerging [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [74]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights a focus on high-quality development in the pig farming industry, with a call for better market guidance and policy support [3][22]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. - The beef and dairy sectors are seeing price stability, with expectations for a new cycle in beef prices as supply constraints continue [5][39][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases due to external uncertainties [6][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2855.04 points, with a week-on-week increase of 3.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.48 kg, with a slight increase in slaughter rates due to high temperatures [3][22]. - The average price of pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.84% [21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 yuan per pig, with a focus on low-cost operations [3][23]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 6.70 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [29]. - The overall poultry sector is stabilizing, with expectations for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle was 26.49 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week [5][40]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in prices as supply constraints continue [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2,332.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.12% [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases [6][45]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.35 yuan/kg [61]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing [61][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, indicating potential for recovery and growth in demand and pricing [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the "Price Law" to combat "involution" in the industry, which is expected to stabilize pricing and improve market conditions [7][8]. - There is a notable increase in demand for wind turbines, with significant orders and tenders indicating a robust market outlook for the second half of the year [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply chain dynamics and pricing trends across various segments, particularly in photovoltaic materials and components [7][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The report discusses the recent legislative changes aimed at improving product quality monitoring and energy consumption standards in the photovoltaic sector, which are expected to positively impact market dynamics [1][7]. - Despite concerns over potential negative feedback on terminal demand due to price increases, the report anticipates a recovery in demand as the market enters the traditional stocking season in Q3 [1][7]. Wind Energy - The signing of a €4.3 billion order by a major company for offshore wind turbine foundations is highlighted, along with an upward revision of expected shipments and performance for 2026 [8][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in tender sizes for wind turbines, reinforcing optimistic demand expectations for 2026 [8][10]. Power Grid - The commencement of a major hydropower project with an investment of approximately ¥1.2 trillion is expected to drive significant demand for ultra-high voltage (UHV) and gas-insulated line (GIL) equipment [2][11]. - The report indicates a strong growth trend in the export of major electrical equipment, with a notable increase in transformer and high-voltage switch exports [2][12]. Lithium Battery - The report identifies advancements in semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies as key areas for commercialization, with companies making progress in overcoming existing technical challenges [13][16]. - The application of lithium metal anodes is highlighted as a significant development that could enhance energy density in solid-state batteries [16][17]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report notes a recovery in fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) registrations and a significant increase in the bidding for electrolyzers, indicating a growing market for hydrogen technologies [3][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects, particularly in maritime applications, to drive demand for hydrogen production equipment [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong valuation margins and those positioned to benefit from technological advancements and market recovery in the photovoltaic sector [8][10]. - In the wind energy sector, the report recommends companies that are expected to benefit from increased orders and favorable pricing dynamics [10][11]. - For the hydrogen sector, the report highlights companies involved in fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage as key investment opportunities [20][21].

Investment Rating - The transportation sector has shown a positive trend with a 3.2% increase in the transportation index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% during the week of July 19-25, 2025 [1][12]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's fund holdings increased to 32.5 billion yuan, a 17.0% rise compared to the previous quarter, with a market share of 1.95% [2]. - The express delivery segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.8% in June, with SF Express leading the growth [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume in June compared to the previous year [4]. - The shipping sector is stabilizing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 10.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][34]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.2%, with the airport sector showing the highest increase of 5.6% [1][12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container freight index (CCFI) was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) increased by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in domestic shipping [28]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights reached 16,945, a 3.68% increase year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.51% [4]. - The introduction of a new ticket purchasing feature on the airline service platform is expected to enhance customer experience [4]. Rail and Road - National highway freight traffic increased by 0.67% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [6][76]. - The railway passenger volume in June was 373 million, a 3.61% increase year-on-year [73]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June, with a notable increase in the market share of SF Express [2][44].

Group 1: Reform and Market Dynamics - The principle of "minimum resistance" applies to both physical laws and human behavior, suggesting that reforms must overcome significant obstacles to achieve optimal outcomes[4] - The "anti-involution" reform aims to address chaotic price wars and unfair competition, particularly in industries closely related to local government actions, such as "new three samples" and e-commerce platforms[2] - The reform is expected to enhance product quality and improve profit margins and investment returns for leading companies in relevant industries[12] Group 2: Industry Focus and Implications - The report highlights that the automotive and solar energy sectors have seen significant growth, with electric vehicle sales up 40.3% and exports up 75.2% year-on-year, yet profit margins are declining due to oversupply and inefficiencies[6] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is likely to incorporate the anti-involution reforms, indicating that more policies will be implemented in the future[12] - The focus on reform is not merely about raising prices or reducing capacity but involves a comprehensive approach to improve industry standards and governance[12] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There is a risk that local governments and industries may misinterpret policy intentions, leading to ineffective capacity reduction efforts[3] - External factors, such as upcoming US-China trade talks, may influence domestic policy focus and implementation effectiveness[13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Yonghui Supermarket announced a detailed private brand plan, aiming to increase the number of private brand products from 60 to 500 and penetration rate from 5% to 40% by 2029 [11][12] - The offline retail sector is seeing steady progress in store renovations, with 143 out of 523 stores (27.34%) already renovated as of July 25 [11] - Online retail competition remains intense, with expectations of subsidy wars continuing until the end of summer, potentially leading to a recovery in order sizes post-subsidy [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Company Dynamics - Yonghui's private brand plan includes developing 2 products with over 1 billion in sales by 2026 and 15 such products by 2029 [11] - The online retail sector is expected to see a shift in competition dynamics, with Meituan likely regaining market share after the subsidy wars [11][18] 2. Industry Data Tracking - In the second week of July, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com decreased by 14.24% year-on-year [20] - The top five categories in terms of growth were toys, consumer electronics, home appliances, maternal and infant products, and pet supplies [20] 3. Market Review - From July 21 to July 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the retail sector (Shenwan) increased by 2.65%, ranking third among nine major consumption sectors [3][30] - Notable stock performers included Dalian Friendship and Lion Head Shares, with significant gains [3][29] 4. Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket is recommended for its transformation towards a selective retail model, which is expected to have long-term growth potential in the post-consumption era [32] - Meituan is viewed positively for its established barriers in user perception, rider management, and merchant relationships, despite competitive pressures from JD.com [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mechanical equipment sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Yingliu Co., Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [11]. Core Insights - GEV's new gas turbine orders increased by 35.56% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine industry [25]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus Gen3, is set to launch a prototype within three months, with production expected to start in early 2026, which is anticipated to positively impact the robotics industry [25]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with an estimated total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to accelerate the recovery of domestic engineering machinery sales [25]. - The "Industrial Mother Machine+" initiative is driving domestic substitution and industrial upgrades, particularly in sectors like aerospace and new energy vehicles [25]. - The report highlights a robust demand for engineering machinery, with excavator sales showing resilience and growth in both domestic and international markets [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index rose by 2.56% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.69% [14][15]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery sector remains under pressure, while engineering machinery shows a steady upward trend with excavator sales increasing by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025 [23][30]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with GEV's new orders indicating a significant recovery [50]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a stable growth in railway equipment investments, maintaining around 6% growth in 2025 [39]. - The shipbuilding sector is showing signs of marginal improvement after a period of decline, with new ship price indices stabilizing [41]. - Oil service equipment is showing signs of bottoming out, with global rig counts increasing, indicating a recovery in oil service demand [42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential rebound in the market due to upcoming policy support and low valuations in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +4.1%, ranking 7th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +4.2%, ranking 6th [2][16]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in 300 cities was reported at 15%, with a total land area sold of 667 million square meters, reflecting a 10% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [2][27]. - The newly implemented Housing Rental Regulations aim to enhance rental rights and improve the rental market by regulating rental activities and promoting equal rights for renters [5][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 47 cities sold a total of 291 million square meters of commercial housing, with a week-on-week increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][33]. - In June, new home prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a slight expansion in the decline [3][33]. Land Transactions - The report notes that the recent land auction in Shanghai resulted in the highest floor price for residential land in the country, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter for the Xujiahui plot [4][13]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts include China Overseas, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with respective acquisition amounts of 54.2 billion, 52.8 billion, 41.4 billion, 35.6 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan [27][30]. Rental Market Regulations - The newly established Housing Rental Regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, focusing on standardizing rental activities and enhancing the rights of renters [5][15]. - The regulations support the revitalization of old factories and commercial properties for rental purposes and establish a monitoring mechanism for rental prices [5][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from potential policy support, particularly developers with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities [6]. - Recommended companies include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development, which are expected to perform well due to their ongoing land acquisition capabilities [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 20th to July 26th, among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators in Guojin Securities' fixed - income fundamental monitoring system, the number of "bullish" and "bearish" indicators is 27 and 22 respectively. "Bullish" factors are mainly reflected in the start - up rates of most industries, real estate transaction areas, consumption, travel, exports, and most agricultural product prices, while "bearish" factors are mainly shown in coal consumption, crude steel production, real estate prices, industrial product inventory and demand, etc. [2][17] - The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal. [3][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Thermometer - **Overview**: Among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators, 27 are "bullish" and 22 are "bearish" for the bond market. [2][17] - **High - frequency Indicator Tracking**: - **Absolute Value Tracking**: Many indicators are monitored, such as economic growth (e.g., daily coal consumption and crude steel production), industrial production (e.g., start - up rates of various industries), real estate (e.g., housing and land transaction areas), infrastructure, inventory, consumption, travel, and inflation. The qualitative judgment for each indicator is provided, with some being "bullish" and some "bearish". [14] - **Monthly Year - on - Year Tracking**: Similar to the absolute value tracking, various economic aspects are covered, and the year - on - year changes and qualitative judgments for each indicator are presented. [16] 3.2 Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators - **Overview**: The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", with a proportion of 6/10. The US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal compared with last week. [3][19] - **Specific Indicators**: - **Enterprise Medium - and Long - Term Loan Balance Growth Rate**: 8.3%, lower than the previous value of 8.4%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Building Materials Composite Index**: 113.9, higher than the previous value of 111.3, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **BCI: Enterprise Recruitment Prospective Index**: 49.1%, lower than the previous value of 50.5%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Internet Search Index Year - on - Year (6MMA)**: 105.2%, lower than the previous value of 105.7%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **PMI New Export Orders Trend Value**: - 0.25%, lower than the previous value of - 0.24%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **PMI Supply - Demand Balance Trend Value**: 0.17%, higher than the previous value of 0.16%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Durable Goods Price**: 0.943, lower than the previous value of 0.944, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Bill Financing**: 14.7 trillion, lower than the previous value of 15.1 trillion, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **US Dollar Index**: 97.5, lower than the previous value of 98.4, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Copper - Gold Ratio**: 17.0, higher than the previous value of 16.6, "bearish". [3][18][19]