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宏观经济点评报告:要素市场化改革的关键一步
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 09:06
Group 1: Reform Overview - The State Council has approved a pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in 10 regions, focusing on six key elements: technology, land, human resources, data, capital, and environmental resources[2] - The reform plans are tailored to local conditions, addressing critical issues in factor marketization, including land index marketization and rural homestead reform[4] Group 2: Land and Resource Allocation - The reform emphasizes market-oriented allocation of land indicators, allowing regions with surplus indicators to transfer them to areas with higher development potential, enhancing land resource efficiency[5] - Zhengzhou's plan focuses on transforming underutilized industrial land into new industrial land, supporting industrial upgrades[5] Group 3: Public Services and Population Management - The pilot regions, except Beijing, propose a system where basic public services are provided based on the place of residence, aiming for equalization of services[6] - Chengdu's plan explores matching new construction land with population trends, while other regions emphasize linking fiscal transfers and public service investments to urbanization of rural populations[6] Group 4: Rural Land Reform - The reform aims to facilitate urbanization of rural populations by exploring voluntary and compensated exit mechanisms for rural homestead rights, enhancing financial support for migrants[7] - The focus is on increasing the property value of homestead rights as urbanization progresses, thereby boosting rural residents' income potential[7] Group 5: Income Distribution and Labor Compensation - The reform plans aim to increase labor compensation in the initial distribution of income and enhance residents' income through land and capital rights[8] - Hefei's plan includes raising minimum wage standards and improving wage negotiation systems to benefit frontline workers[8] Group 6: Technology and Innovation - The plans propose granting researchers ownership or long-term usage rights of their scientific achievements, with Hefei suggesting at least 70% ownership rights for researchers[9] - There is a focus on promoting technology capitalization, including knowledge property financing and encouraging quality tech companies to go public[9] Group 7: Financial Sector Reforms - The Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou region's plan supports Taiwanese financial institutions' participation in mainland financial markets, enhancing cross-border financial cooperation[13] - The Chongqing plan encourages exploration of financial product and capital connectivity between China and Singapore[13] Group 8: Data Management and Utilization - The reform emphasizes the opening of high-value public data sets in various sectors, including health and transportation, to promote transparency and innovation[15] - The Suzhou-Nanjing region's plan explores market-oriented pricing and management of data assets, facilitating data trading[15] Group 9: Risk Considerations - There are risks related to misinterpretation of policies and potential delays in land reform progress, which may affect the overall effectiveness of the pilot programs[16]
公募基础设施REITs周报-20250922
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2025/09/15 - 2025/09/19), the weighted index of REITs decreased by 0.14% to 100.42 points. The performance of major asset classes from high to low was: crude oil > pure bonds > gold > REITs > stocks > convertible bonds. [2] - In terms of the nature of underlying asset projects, property - type REITs rose 0.13% to 113.97, while concession - type REITs fell 0.46% to 84.48. From the perspective of industry types, the weekly performance from high to low was: data centers > warehousing and logistics > industrial parks > consumer - type > energy - type > rental housing for affordable housing > highways > ecological and environmental protection. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Price - Volume Performance - **Overall Market Performance**: The weighted index of REITs decreased by 0.14% this week. The performance of major asset classes varied, with crude oil having the highest return at 2.09% and convertible bonds having the lowest return at - 1.55%. [2] - **Performance by Project Nature**: Property - type REITs rose 0.13%, and concession - type REITs fell 0.46%. [2] - **Performance by Industry Type**: Data centers had the highest return of 1.32%, while ecological and environmental protection had the lowest return of - 2.00%. [2] - **Top - Performing REITs**: In property - type REITs, the top five in terms of increase were Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT (2.20%), CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT (1.54%), Huaxia Joy City Commercial REIT (1.43%), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (1.41%), and AVIC Yishang Warehousing and Logistics REIT (1.37%). In concession - type REITs, the top five were China Merchants Expressway REIT (1.89%), E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT (1.57%), Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT (1.40%), AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT (1.15%), and Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water and Water Conservancy REIT (0.87%). [3] - **Turnover Rate**: Among property - type REITs, CICC Vipshop Outlets REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT, CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT, and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT had relatively high turnover rates. Among concession - type REITs, Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT, Guojin China Railway Construction REIT, Fuguo First - Created Water Service REIT, Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT, and Huaxia Tebian Electric New Energy REIT had relatively high turnover rates. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Valuation Situation - **Property - type REITs**: The top three in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) were CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT (7.70%), Boshi Shekou Industrial Park REIT (6.69%), and Huaxia HeDa High - tech REIT (6.61%). The three REITs with relatively low P/NAV valuation quantiles and showing undervaluation were E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT, and Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT. [4][23] - **Concession - type REITs**: The top three in terms of IRR were Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (9.65%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (8.96%), and ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT (6.18%). The three REITs with relatively low P/NAV valuation quantiles and showing undervaluation were Huaxia Yuexiu REIT, Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT, and ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT. [4] 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - **Correlation between REITs and Major Asset Classes**: This week, REITs had the highest correlation coefficient with the Shanghai Composite Index at 0.20, followed by CSI 300 at 0.18, ChiNext Index at 0.11, small - and - medium - cap stocks at 0.16, CSI Convertible Bond Index at 0.17, CSI All - Bond Index at 0.07, gold at 0.04, and crude oil index at 0.09. [27] - **Correlation of Different Types of REITs with Major Asset Classes**: Different types of REITs had different correlations with major asset classes. For example, industrial park - type REITs had a relatively high correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index at 0.21, while rental housing for affordable housing - type REITs had a correlation coefficient of 0.00 with the Shanghai Composite Index. [28] 3.4 Primary Market Tracking As of September 19, 2025, there were 11 REITs products still in the exchange acceptance stage and 1 REIT in the state of having passed the review and waiting for listing. [5][31]
特殊新增专项债发行加速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-18 13:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]
8月美国非农数据点评:鲍威尔暂时通过了独立性的压力测试
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-18 11:28
Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not on the rate cut magnitude but on the independence of the Federal Reserve amid new member Milan's rapid joining and legal issues faced by member Cook[3] - Only Milan supported a 50bp rate cut, while Waller and Bowman, who previously voted against, aligned with the majority this time[3] - The labor market dynamics are worse than in June, contradicting Waller's earlier stance that tariffs should be excluded when considering inflation, which would suggest a larger rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The median forecast for a rate cut in 2025 was raised from 50bp to 75bp, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this, indicating a precarious consensus[7] - The FOMC's economic outlook was optimistic, raising 2025 GDP growth to 1.6% and 2026 GDP to 1.8%, while lowering the 2026 unemployment rate to 4.4%[10] - Powell's performance during the meeting was deemed satisfactory in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite political pressures from Trump[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Implications - Risks include increased political uncertainty from Trump, leading to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[6] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected synchronized easing, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[6] - The Fed's independence has resulted in gold being the biggest loser in the market, with a 10% increase in gold prices since the Jackson Hole meeting reflecting prior market expectations of reduced Fed independence[10]
超长信用债探微跟踪:2.4%的超长信用债有机会吗?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-17 14:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of ultra - long credit bonds from multiple aspects, including the adjustment of yields in the stock market, the increase in new bond supply in the primary market, and the decline in index prices and weak trading sentiment in the secondary market. It also points out that institutions should pay attention to market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs when participating in the ultra - long credit bond market [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields continued to adjust. Due to the impact of new public fund regulations on the bond market this week, assets with insufficient safety margins, such as medium - and long - duration secondary bonds and general credit bonds over 7 years, faced significant adjustment pressure. The number of stock ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 353 compared with last week [2][12]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds increased significantly. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 40.19 billion, reaching the highest point this year, mainly affected by the large - scale issuance of ultra - long individual bonds by Everbright Group. Due to the overall pressure on the bond market, the market's sentiment towards primary - market allocation was cautious, and the coupon rates of new ultra - long credit bonds generally continued to rise. However, investors had a certain degree of recognition for the high - quality ultra - long new bonds of Everbright Group, as shown by the rebound in the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long industrial bonds in the latest week [3][21]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The price of the ultra - long credit bond index continued to fall. This week, the price index trends of various bonds continued to diverge. Medium - and short - duration credit bonds were more resilient, while long - duration varieties faced price pressure. The index of AA + credit bonds over 10 years decreased by 1.02% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds remained sluggish. This week, due to redemption pressure, the selling pressure of trading desks on ultra - long credit bonds intensified. Although the number of transactions of credit bonds over 7 years increased slightly, the average transaction yield increased significantly compared with last week. In terms of spreads, the spread between industrial bonds over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 35bp [32]. - Correspondingly, the proportion of TKN of ultra - long credit bonds over 10 years was less than 50% this week, and the average discount of 20 - 30 - year urban investment individual bonds reached over 5BP, highlighting the heavy selling pressure from sellers [37]. - In terms of investor structure, due to concerns about the stability of the liability side, funds have been reducing their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds for five consecutive weeks. The net selling scale of ultra - long credit bond varieties in the latest week exceeded 3 billion, intensifying the market selling pressure. Institutions such as insurance and wealth management participated slightly during the adjustment, reflecting the allocation demand for high - coupon long - term bonds [43]. - From a more microscopic perspective, the spreads between active ultra - long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities continued to widen this week. The spreads of varieties around 10 years have risen to over the 60th percentile since 2024. In the future, there are still liquidity flaws in ultra - long credit bonds. If institutions intend to participate, they need to avoid excessive selling and pay attention to the market sentiment changes around the listing of the second batch of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs [46].
债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:楼市销售超过去年同期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-17 14:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that most of the operating rates have rebounded, with the demand in the real - estate market exceeding the same period last year, and inflation is characterized by the strengthening of oil prices [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Most Operating Rates Rebound 3.1.1 Production: Most Operating Rates Rebound - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On September 16, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 900,000 tons, up 3.6% from September 9. On September 10, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2,271,000 tons, down 6.0% from September 5 [5][12] - The blast - furnace operating rate has rebounded to the level before production cuts. On September 12, the national blast - furnace operating rate was 83.9%, up 3.5 percentage points from September 5; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 4.4 percentage points. The blast - furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 90.7%, up 1.9 percentage points [5][15] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On September 11, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 65.6%, up 5.8 percentage points from September 4; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 73.5%, up 6.0 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to rise. On September 11, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from September 4; the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.4%, the same as on September 4 [5][18] 3.1.2 Demand: Real - Estate Sales Exceed the Same Period Last Year - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities exceeded the same period last year. From September 1 - 16, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, up 9.0% from the same period in August, up 11.7% from the same period in September last year, and down 25.3% from the same period in September 2023 [5][22] - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In September, retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 3% year - on - year [5][24] - The rebound of steel prices weakened. On September 16, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 1.1%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively compared with September 9. The inventory of steel products rose to the level of the same period last year. On September 12, the inventory of five major steel products was 1,095,100 tons, up 174,000 tons from September 5 [5][30] - The decline of cement prices slowed down. On September 16, the national cement price index decreased by 0.4% compared with September 9. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.7% and 1.4% respectively, weaker than the national average [5][31] - Glass prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks. On September 16, the active glass futures contract price was 1,236 yuan/ton, up 3.1% from September 9 [5][37] - The container shipping freight index declined again. On September 12, the CCFI index decreased by 2.1% compared with September 5, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.2% [5][38] 3.2 Inflation: Strengthening of Oil Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Linger at a Low Level - Pig prices linger at a low level. On September 16, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from September 9. The month - on - month decline narrowed [5][45] - The agricultural product price index declined slightly. On September 16, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with September 9. By variety, eggs (up 3.6%) > mutton (up 0.9%) > chicken (up 0.8%) > beef (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.1%) > fruits (down 1.3%) > vegetables (down 2.1%) [5][48] 3.2.2 PPI: Strengthening of Oil Prices - Oil prices strengthened. On September 16, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.7 and $64.5 per barrel respectively, up 2.6% and 3.0% from September 9 [5][52] - Copper and aluminum prices continued to rise. On September 16, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 2.4% and 3.8% respectively compared with September 9 [5][55] - The decline of the domestic commodity index widened month - on - month. On September 16, the Nanhua industrial products index increased by 1.9% compared with September 9, and the CRB index increased by 0.3%. Most industrial product prices fell in September [5][57]
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20250917
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-17 10:29
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced an overall increase last week, with the CSI 500 index futures showing the largest gain of 3.83%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 1.00% [3][11] - The average trading volume for all contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH contract seeing the largest decline of 24.59% and the IC contract the smallest at 5.41% [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were -2.18%, -8.76%, -13.22%, and 0.11% respectively, indicating a deepening of the discount for IF and IM, while IC's discount narrowed and IH turned to a premium [3][11][12] Group 2: Market Expectations and Strategies - In the absence of changes to index futures trading rules, the correlation between basis changes and dividend impacts, as well as investor trading sentiment, remains high [4][13] - The market sentiment is generally optimistic, with 12 brokerage firms believing that the A-share market is still in a bull or slow bull phase, and 9 firms indicating that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and foreign capital inflows will improve liquidity [5][30] - There is a consensus among 12 brokerage firms regarding the positive outlook for the AI industry chain, non-bank financials, and gold sectors, while some firms express differing views on market styles and cycles [5][31] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Impacts - Following September, dividends are expected to taper off, having a minimal impact on the four major index futures [4][12] - The estimated impact of dividends on the main contracts for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices for September is projected to be zero, with a slight impact of 0.04 on the CSI 500 quarterly contract [4][12] Group 4: Arbitrage Opportunities - The report indicates that currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract, as the required basis rates for both long and short positions do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] - The cross-period price difference for the contracts is within historical normal ranges, suggesting a stable market environment for potential arbitrage strategies [12][13]
化工专题研究:关税压力测试下胎企开始分化,下半年行业有望改善
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-17 10:27
Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable overall demand in the tire industry, with a stronger support in the semi-steel replacement market, and suggests that leading companies with overseas production capacity are likely to see continued revenue growth [4]. Core Viewpoints - The global tire market demand is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 918 million units, with semi-steel tires growing by 2% to 812 million units and full steel tires increasing by 1% to 106 million units [1][12]. - China's tire export growth is slowing, with passenger car tire exports remaining flat at 172 million units and truck tire exports increasing by 2% to 63 million units in the first half of 2025 [1][27]. - The U.S. market shows strong import demand, with passenger car tire imports increasing by 3% to 84.91 million units and truck tire imports rising by 12% to 32.65 million units in the first half of 2025 [1][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Review: Demand Support and Slowing Export Growth - Global tire demand is slightly increasing, with the semi-steel replacement market showing stronger support [12]. - China's passenger car tire exports are stable, while truck tire exports are growing [27]. - The U.S. continues to rely heavily on tire imports, with significant contributions from Southeast Asian countries [45]. Sector Analysis: Revenue Growth and Profitability Decline - The tire sector achieved total revenue of 55.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell by 30% to 4 billion yuan [2][61]. - The overall sales gross margin decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 18.4%, and the net profit margin declined by 4.1 percentage points to 7.5% [2][65]. Company Performance: Notable Divergence in Results - Leading domestic tire companies are expected to continue increasing their market share, with SaiLun Tire's revenue growing by 16% to 17.6 billion yuan, despite a 14.9% decline in net profit [3]. - Companies with overseas production bases are showing stronger operational resilience, while many foreign tire companies are announcing factory closures and production cuts [3][4]. Globalization of Leading Tire Companies - Leading tire companies are expanding their global presence, with new production bases in Indonesia and Mexico, and ongoing projects in Egypt and Serbia [3][4]. - The report highlights that domestic tire companies are seizing opportunities to capture global market share amid the closure of foreign competitors [4]. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as tariff impacts are gradually absorbed and raw material prices decline [4]. - The potential for price increases in the EU market due to anti-dumping investigations is noted, which could benefit companies with flexible order management [4].
ETF业绩跟踪及资金流动周报(2025.09.08-2025.09.12)-20250917
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-17 03:30
1. Report Information - Report Title: ETF Performance Tracking and Fund Flow Weekly Report (2025.09.08 - 2025.09.12) - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, overseas ETF funds showed an overall outflow trend, with a significant decline compared to the previous two weeks, recording a net outflow of 0.60 billion yuan. Foreign investors' allocation attitude this week was inclined to wait - and - see. The electronics and computer sectors continued to attract attention, but short - term attention should still be paid to changes in overseas risk preferences and the support of domestic policies to confirm future trends [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Wide - based ETFs - **Fund Inflow/Outflow**: Some wide - based ETFs had significant fund inflows and outflows. For example, Tianhong ChiNext ETF had a fund inflow of 41.60 billion yuan, while Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF had a fund outflow of 41.89 billion yuan [4] - **Performance**: Different wide - based ETFs had varying weekly price changes. For instance, Tianhong ChiNext ETF had a weekly increase of 2.11%, and Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF had a 5.38% increase [4] 3.2 Industry Theme, Smart Beta, and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs - **Industry Theme ETFs**: The average weekly price change of industry theme ETFs varied across different sectors. The average weekly price change of some sectors reached up to 5.30%, while others were relatively lower [6] - **Smart Beta ETFs**: The average weekly price change of Smart Beta ETFs also showed differences among sectors such as technology, medicine, and finance. There were also corresponding fund inflows and outflows [10][12] - **Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs**: The average weekly price change and fund inflow/outflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs were presented. For example, the average weekly price change of some Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs was around 3.17% [28] 3.3 Equity ETFs - **Statistics**: The report provided statistics on the number, scale, and trading volume of equity ETFs corresponding to different indices. For example, the funds corresponding to the CSI 300 index had a total scale of 327.41 billion yuan, accounting for 30.28% of the total scale [14] 3.4 Overseas ETFs - **Overall Fund Flow**: Overseas ETFs had a net outflow of 0.60 billion yuan this week. In terms of style indices, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 attracted funds, while the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, CSI A500, and CSI 300 shifted from inflows to outflows, with the CSI 300 being significantly sold off [16] - **Industry - level Allocation**: At the industry level, the electronics and computer sectors received significant additional allocations, while sectors such as automobiles, power equipment, and banks showed net fund outflows [16] - **Individual Stock Allocation**: Some individual stocks like BYD and CATL saw fund withdrawals, while Shenghong Technology was the most - increased stock with an increase of 0.05 billion yuan [16][21]
2.3%找扛跌资产
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-16 15:18
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - As of September 15, 2025, private enterprise real - estate bonds and industrial bonds have higher valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. The yields of non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds and real - estate bonds have generally increased compared to the previous week [3][8]. - Among financial bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary instruments and leasing company bonds have higher valuation yields and spreads. Financial bond yields have generally risen compared to the previous week [4][8]. - In the urban investment bond market, public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have relatively low weighted average valuation yields, while those in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu have higher yields or spreads. Private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian have relatively low weighted average valuation yields, and those in Guizhou have higher yields [2][14][23]. Group 3: Summary by Category Urban Investment Bonds - **Public Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are below 2.65%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Yields in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have higher spreads. Compared to last week, the overall yields have increased, with an average increase of over 3BP for 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year varieties [2][14]. - **Private Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 3%. Bonds with yields higher than 4% are in prefecture - level areas of Guizhou. Yields in Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also have higher spreads. Compared to last week, the overall yields have increased, with an average increase of 3.8BP for 2 - 3 - year varieties [23]. Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real - estate Industrial Bonds**: Yields have basically increased. The yields of 2 - 3 - year private enterprise public perpetual bonds and private non - perpetual bonds have increased significantly [3][8]. - **Real - estate Bonds**: All yields have increased, with the adjustment of varieties over 1 year being stronger than that of short - term bonds. The yields of 1 - 2 - year state - owned enterprise private and private enterprise public non - perpetual bonds have increased by about 5BP [3][8]. Financial Bonds - **Leasing Company Bonds**: There has been some adjustment, with relatively large increases in the yields of 1 - 2 - year perpetual and 2 - 3 - year private perpetual varieties [4]. - **Bank Sub - debt**: It is the most volatile bond type among financial bonds. The yields of secondary capital bonds over 1 year and perpetual bonds over 2 years have significantly adjusted [4]. - **Commercial Financial Bonds**: They have strong defensive attributes, with all varieties having an adjustment within 3BP, and the yield of state - owned bank varieties within 1 year has decreased by 1BP [4]. - **Securities Company Bonds**: The performance varies by term. Some varieties within 2 years have stable yields, while the yields of 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year public sub - debt have increased by around 5BP [4].