Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a cautious outlook due to recent market conditions and regulatory delays [34]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization dropping by 6.5% to $3.02 trillion. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 6.3% and 10.4%, respectively [10][11]. - The fear and greed index shifted from neutral to fear, indicating a decrease in market sentiment [14]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are anticipated to maintain interest rates, with a high probability of no rate cuts in early 2026 [10]. - The Clarity Act's review has been postponed, affecting the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 6.5% this week, with Bitcoin closing at $89,504 and Ethereum at $2,953 [10][11]. - The market sentiment has turned cold, with the fear and greed index dropping to 35, indicating fear among investors [14] [10]. 2. Global Policy and Industry News - The Clarity Act is expected to be delayed until late February to March due to prioritization of housing policies in the Senate [2][27]. - The New York Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/7 trading platform for tokenized securities, aiming to reduce counterparty risk [2][27]. - Vietnam is initiating a pilot program for licensing cryptocurrency trading platforms, with about 10 companies expressing interest [2][29]. 3. Company News - Bitmine received shareholder approval for a stock increase to facilitate future financing [30]. - Strive plans to raise $150 million through preferred stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin and repay debts [30]. - WhiteFiber forecasts preliminary revenues of $22.7 to $25.1 million for Q4 2025 [30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the earnings season approaches, attention is drawn to companies transitioning to AI data centers, particularly those with partnerships with Google and significant power reserves [4][32]. - Companies like Riot Platform and Hut 8 are highlighted for their potential in the evolving market landscape [32].

本周观点 投资建议 相关标的： CPU：海光信息、中科曙光、禾盛新材、中国长城、龙芯中科、兴森科技、深南电路、宏和科技。 国内算力：海光信息、寒武纪、东阳光、协创数据、华丰科技、星环科技、神州数码、百度集团、大位科技、润 建股份、中芯国际、华虹半导体、中科曙光、禾盛新材、润泽科技、浪潮信息、东山精密、亿田智能、奥飞数据、 云赛智联、瑞晟智能、科华数据、潍柴重机、金山云、欧陆通、杰创智能。 海外算力/存储：中际旭创、新易盛、兆易创新、大普微、中微公司、天孚通信、源杰科技、胜宏科技、景旺电子、 英维克等；闪迪、铠侠、美光、SK 海力士、中微公司、北方华创、拓荆科技、长川科技。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 Agent 驱动的强化学习(RL)时代，CPU 可能比 GPU 更早成为瓶颈。与传统单任务 RL 不同，现代 Agent 系统需 要同时运行成百上千个独立环境实例，"环境并行化"让 CPU 成为事实上的第一块短板。主要源于三大核心逻辑： 1）Multi-Agent 带来 OS 调度压力， Agent 的"推理-执行 ...

投资逻辑： 盈利预测、估值和评级 我们预测， 2025/2026/2027 年 公 司 实 现 营 业 收 入 6.91/12.02/16.23 亿元，同比+40.6%/+73.8%/+35.0%；归母 净 利 润 分 别 为 0.72/1.63/2.42 亿 元 ， 同 比 +7.3%/+125.5%/+48.9%，采用市销率法，给予公司 2026 年 40 倍 PS 估值，目标价 116.06 元，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游应用拓展不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，技术路 线迭代风险，地缘政治及汇率波动风险，限售股解禁风险。 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 23.00 35.00 47.00 59.00 71.00 83.00 95.00 250123 250423 250723 251023 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 华曙高科 沪深300 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, with the opening of the first U.S. store in September 2023 [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up the average spending per member, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to purchase all products increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established partnerships with mature toy artists in Hong Kong, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company has strong control over user data and market feedback due to its direct sales channels, enhancing operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising cultural influence of China on the global stage [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.96 billion, 55.10 billion, and 67.74 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 12.38 billion, 17.35 billion, and 22.66 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 295.98%, 40.21%, and 30.59% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

资产端的"买 A 卖港"与负债端逐步远去的"回本赎回" 2025Q4 主动偏股基金股票仓位回落至 86.30%(A 股 73.96%，港股 12.34%)，且仓位回落均来自港股配置比例的下降， 而 A 股配置比例则延续回升。结合南下来看，四季度公募基金持仓占南下比例下降至 16.46%，且主要源于主动基金配 置比例的下降，而被动基金的占比仍在提升，2025 年末两者的占比已经十分接近。业绩方面，四季度主动基金的业绩 中位数大约为-0.11%，终结了此前连续三个季度为正的趋势，但自 2018 年以来，主动基金单季度持续盈利的最长时 间即为 3 个季度，相应地，约 48%的主动基金跑赢了其业绩基准。因子暴露方面，四季度表现较好的主动偏股基金在 盈利能力因子、成长因子上的暴露显著高于其他分组，同时依然具备高估值、高股价分位数、强动量的特征，这大多 延续了三季度的特征，四季度主动基金因子暴露的主要边际变化在于各基金分组在基本面因子上的暴露差异可能有所 收敛。负债端方面，2025Q4 权益类基金(主动+被动)负债端重获资金净流入，其背后一方面是被动基金负债增量规模 的回升，另一方面是主动基金净赎回规模的明显回落：1）主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive recommendation for the industry, indicating an upward trend in fundamentals despite short-term fluctuations in performance [4]. Core Insights - The non-bank sector's public active equity allocation ratio has increased quarter-on-quarter, with a reduction in underweight levels [2]. - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in active equity holdings, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 117% in A-share active equity public fund heavy positions [3]. - The brokerage sector's active equity holdings have also risen, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% in A-share active equity public fund heavy positions [5]. - Multi-financial companies, particularly Jiufang Zhituo Holdings, have shown a notable increase in allocation ratios [6]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector - The total heavy stock allocation in the non-bank financial sector reached 40.9 billion yuan, with a configuration ratio of 2.51%, up by 1.03 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and an underweight ratio of 3.87%, narrowing by 0.92 percentage points [2]. Insurance Sector - The A-share active equity public fund heavy positions in the insurance sector reached 28 billion yuan, with a configuration ratio of 1.72%, up by 0.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The underweight ratio is 0.74 percentage points, down by 0.63 percentage points [3]. - Key individual stock allocations include China Life at 0.08%, Ping An at 1.11%, and others, with varying degrees of over- and under-allocation [3]. Brokerage Sector - The A-share active equity public fund heavy positions in the brokerage sector reached 11.8 billion yuan, with a configuration ratio of 0.73%, up by 0.10 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and an underweight ratio of 2.67 percentage points, narrowing by 0.29 percentage points [5]. - Major holdings include Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities, with slight increases in their respective ratios [5]. Multi-Financial Sector - Jiufang Zhituo Holdings has seen a significant increase in its allocation ratio, while other multi-financial companies are also recommended for their strong performance potential [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "overweight" investment rating for the commercial space industry, particularly focusing on companies with state-owned backgrounds and those positioned in the core supply chain of commercial rockets and satellites [4]. Core Insights - Rocket Lab is positioned as a leading end-to-end space company, redefining access to space and applications, with a vision to build a comprehensive infrastructure from launch vehicles to space applications [13][14]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a small rocket launch provider to a vertically integrated space systems giant, establishing a competitive moat second only to SpaceX [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Neutron rocket, expected to launch in 2026, as a strategic tool to challenge SpaceX's dominance in the medium-lift market [6][62]. - The commercial space industry is undergoing structural changes akin to a new age of exploration, with significant growth expected in 2026, marking a pivotal year for China's commercial space sector [6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Positioning - Rocket Lab aims to redefine space access and applications, focusing on a full-spectrum capability from launch to operational services [13]. - The company has a rich history of engineering evolution, transitioning from a technology validation phase to a major player in the aerospace industry [14]. Vertical Integration - Rocket Lab's vertical integration strategy allows it to control costs and enhance supply chain resilience, making it a formidable competitor in the space industry [6][42]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions to bolster its capabilities in satellite manufacturing and components, enhancing its position in the supply chain [6][33]. Financial Analysis - Rocket Lab's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 88%, driven by its dual business model of launch services and space systems [34]. - The company has a robust order backlog of $1.1 billion, providing visibility into future revenue streams [34]. Launch Services - The Electron rocket is recognized as a leader in the small satellite launch market, with a successful track record of 79 launches and the deployment of 245 satellites [53]. - The report highlights the strategic value of the HASTE program, which serves U.S. defense needs and offers high profit margins compared to standard commercial launches [60]. Future Outlook - The introduction of the Neutron rocket is expected to expand Rocket Lab's service capabilities into the medium-lift market, directly competing with SpaceX's Falcon 9 [61]. - The report anticipates that the commercial space industry will accelerate in 2026, transitioning from speculative investments to fundamental performance-based investments [9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the commercial rocket industry, particularly focusing on the upcoming key validation window in 2026-2027 for Chinese commercial rocket companies [1][12]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a global resonance, with multiple medium and large rocket launches expected in China by 2026, leading to a dense launch schedule and large-scale satellite networking by 2027 [1][11]. - The success rate of rocket launches and corresponding payload capacity are critical indicators of a company's competitive edge in future commercial operations [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of engine design capabilities, thrust, and parallel capabilities as core focus areas for rocket engines, with a shift towards full-flow staged combustion liquid oxygen-methane engines anticipated [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercial Rocket Launch Status and Outlook - 2026-2027 is identified as a critical validation window for Chinese commercial rocket companies, with many planning to launch liquid rockets and conduct recovery tests [12][13]. - Successful completion of high payload or reusable flights will provide companies with reliability and cost advantages, potentially securing contracts with leading satellite companies [12][13]. 2. Engine Development - The majority of Chinese commercial rocket companies utilize gas generator cycle engines, with future developments expected to focus on full-flow staged combustion engines and nuclear-powered engines [2][17]. - The report highlights that successful launches of liquid rocket engines have primarily been sourced from state-owned enterprises, with only a few private companies achieving launch success [2][28]. 3. 3D Printing Technology - 3D printing is recognized as a key technology for reducing costs and shortening production times in commercial aerospace, with significant applications in manufacturing lightweight and complex components [3][30]. - The Chinese 3D printing market is projected to reach approximately 41.5 billion yuan in 2024, with the aerospace sector accounting for about 16.7% of this market [31][34]. 4. Structural Components - Structural components account for approximately 25%-30% of commercial rocket costs, with tank costs exceeding 60% of this value [36][37]. - The report anticipates a trend towards larger structural components as engine thrust increases, with a shift from aluminum alloys to higher strength, lower cost stainless steel materials [36][37]. 5. Control Systems - The flight control software is described as the "brain" of the rocket, primarily developed in-house by rocket companies, with servo systems representing 6%-10% of the rocket's value [4][39]. - The report notes a transition from electric servos to electromechanical hydraulic servos in commercial aerospace [4]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on listed companies within the system and those closely collaborating with leading private rocket companies, particularly in high-value segments such as 3D printing, tanks, servos, and materials [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the CXO sector for the year 2026, indicating strong demand and recovery in global orders [3][26]. Core Insights - Illumina's release of the Billion Cell Atlas marks a significant advancement in life sciences, transitioning from static genomic data to a comprehensive dataset that integrates AI for drug discovery [3][8]. - Regulatory developments in China and the US are accelerating drug approval processes, with China's implementation of eCTD and the US FDA's support for Bayesian methods enhancing clinical trial efficiency [3][23]. - The CXO sector is expected to see robust growth, supported by major players like Lonza and WuXi AppTec, who are expanding capacity and reporting increased order volumes [3][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Frontiers - Illumina's Billion Cell Atlas is the largest human genome perturbation dataset to date, aimed at accelerating drug discovery through AI [3][8]. - Regulatory dynamics indicate a race for faster drug approvals, with China's NMPA adopting eCTD and the FDA endorsing Bayesian statistical methods for clinical trials [3][23]. - The global order recovery is evident, with a positive outlook for the CXO sector throughout 2026, as major companies report growth and increased demand [3][26]. Capital Trends - GSK's acquisition of RAPT Therapeutics for $2.2 billion focuses on developing an anti-IgE monoclonal antibody for food allergies, highlighting the potential in the allergy treatment market [4][31]. - Novartis has entered a $1.5 billion agreement with SciNeuro to advance a new antibody project targeting Alzheimer's disease, indicating ongoing investment in neurodegenerative treatments [4][36]. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the transition to an AI-driven era in drug discovery, suggesting that previous advantages in research may diminish as the landscape evolves [5][37]. - The demand for CXO services is expected to remain strong, driven by AI-enabled drug discovery and regulatory advancements [5][38].