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具身智能行业研究:智元机器人百公里跨省行走,Figure 02参与3万辆宝马汽车生产
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-23 06:21
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the robotics industry, indicating that it is a strong investment opportunity due to the acceleration in technology and market demand [3][31]. Core Insights - The robotics sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with advancements in humanoid robots such as the Zhiyuan Expedition A2 achieving a Guinness World Record for the longest journey walked by a humanoid robot, showcasing enhanced durability and reliability [1][24]. - The collaboration between companies like UBTECH and telecommunications firms to launch AI-driven robots is indicative of the industry's shift towards practical applications and commercial viability [1][14]. - The report highlights the importance of core components in robotics, with companies like Giant Crab Intelligence securing substantial orders for joint modules and harmonic reducers, reflecting strong market demand [1][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics - The industry is witnessing increased collaboration between upstream and downstream players, with strategic partnerships enhancing technological integration [8]. - Commercialization is accelerating, as evidenced by significant orders and the deployment of robots in real-world applications [8][15]. - Key capabilities and components are making substantial progress, with advancements in humanoid robot technology leading to improved performance metrics [8][24]. 1.1 Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the launch of new operating systems aimed at enhancing AI capabilities and significant investments in AI infrastructure by major corporations [9][10]. - The establishment of standards for embodied intelligence systems is being actively pursued, indicating a structured approach to industry growth [9][10]. 1.2 Main Body - Companies like UBTECH and Zhiyuan are making strides in humanoid robotics, with successful product launches and significant funding rounds indicating strong market confidence [14][15]. - The successful completion of the Zhiyuan Expedition A2's journey demonstrates the potential for humanoid robots in practical applications [23][24]. 1.3 Core Components - Companies are expanding their production capabilities to meet rising demand, with significant investments in new facilities and technology [28][29]. - The supply chain for robotics components is becoming more integrated, with firms like Fulin Precision supplying critical parts to major players like Huawei [29][30]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential of embodied intelligence as a leading application of AI, particularly in humanoid robotics, which is expected to reshape the automotive supply chain [31]. - Investors are advised to focus on key players in the robotics sector, including Tesla, Figure, Huawei, and others, as they possess competitive advantages in hardware and software integration [31][32].
12月FOMC前的“人造迷雾”
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-23 06:19
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increased by 0.12 percentage points in September, rising from 4.32% in August to 4.44%, nearing the Fed's year-end forecast of 4.5%[12] - Non-farm payrolls showed a significant fluctuation, with September's job growth only at 119,000, indicating a potential underestimation of employment weakness[8] - The persistent rise in unemployment suggests that the labor supply is not as weak as previously thought, contradicting the low job growth figures seen in recent months[12] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following the October FOMC meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in December dropped to below 30%[5] - The current baseline scenario anticipates a rate cut in December, with potential quarterly cuts in the first half of next year, reaching a cycle endpoint of 3%-3.25%[30] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion is expected to be clarified as early as the March meeting next year, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liquidity for the U.S. economy[30] Group 3: Market Implications - If the Fed does not cut rates in December, there is a risk of further weakening in the real economy and increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, particularly in the AI narrative[29] - The divergence in monetary policy expectations may lead to one of the most fragmented FOMC decisions in history, reflecting political influences on the Fed's decisions[30] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital outflows from the dollar[31]
英伟达Q3财报超预期+Gemini 3发布,海外链持续景气
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-23 05:08
通信周观点: 海外链看,北美 AI 链持续景气。1)英伟达发布财报,业绩超预期。英伟达发布 FY26Q3 财报,当季录得营收 570 亿 美元,YoY+62%,QoQ+22%,并指引 FY26Q4 营收 650 亿美元,均高于市场预期;毛利率进一步提升,Q3 毛利率为 73.6%, 并指引 Q4 毛利率为 74.8%。黄仁勋在电话会上明确回击"AI 泡沫论""AI 闭环经济论",公司指出公司至 2026 年底 具有 5000 亿美元订单能见度,且云服务商 GPU 利用率已经饱和。此外,英伟达宣布正在与 OpenAI 建立战略合作伙伴 关系,协助其建设和部署至少 10 吉瓦的 AI 数据中心。我们认为英伟达财报持续超预期说明 AI 叙事仍未被证伪,看 好英伟达链上相关标的。2)谷歌发布 Gemini 3 和 Nano Banana Pro 等系列模型。谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3 并于发布 首日在多个产品中投入使用。Gemini 3 在多个行业排行榜上处于领先地位,并在 Humanity's Last Exam 基准测试中 获得 37.5%的最高分。此外,谷歌正式推出了全新图像生成与编辑模型 Nano Ban ...
心动公司(02400):“聚匠人心,动玩家情”,自研+平台双轮驱动成长
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-22 14:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned for growth through a dual engine of self-developed games and the TapTap platform, which serves as a comprehensive game community and distribution platform [1][2]. - The self-developed games have shown strong performance, with titles like "Let's Go Muffin" and "Heart Town" driving revenue growth, while the TapTap platform is expected to expand significantly due to its user base and monetization potential [2][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global game developer and publisher with a diverse portfolio, including popular titles such as "Let's Go Muffin," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite." It ranks 22nd among mobile game publishers in China and is expected to enter the global top 100 by October 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - **Self-Developed Game Capability**: The company has consistently validated its ability to develop successful games, with a strong product matrix and ongoing growth from new releases and international expansions [2][12]. - **TapTap Platform Growth**: The platform benefits from a user-game dual effect, with a zero-revenue-sharing policy attracting quality games and users. The introduction of a PC version and the expansion of the iOS ecosystem are expected to further enhance growth [2][34][39]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.55 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 111.2%, 24.3%, and 20.0% [2][46]. - The target price is set at 103.2 HKD, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong valuation relative to industry peers [2][50]. Revenue Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3.39 billion CNY in 2023 to 8.84 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.0% from 2025 to 2027 [46][47]. - Game revenue is projected to increase significantly, driven by successful titles and new game launches, while information service revenue from TapTap is also expected to grow robustly [46][47]. Cost and Margin Expectations - The company anticipates improving gross margins, with overall gross margins projected to rise from 69.4% in 2024 to 76.3% by 2027, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed games [48][49].
10月家电出口有所承压,新兴市场维持稳健增长
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-22 12:45
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly for leading brands that are expected to achieve stable growth due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power [5]. Core Insights - In October, home appliance exports faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline in quantity and value of -9.2% and -13.3% respectively. However, emerging markets showed robust growth, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [12][14]. - The report highlights that air conditioning exports in Southeast Asia led the growth, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in October [17]. - The overall market sentiment is slightly pressured for white goods and black goods, while kitchen and bathroom appliances are stabilizing at the bottom, and vacuum cleaners maintain high prosperity [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Export Performance - October saw a decline in air conditioner exports by 29.3%, while washing machine exports increased by 7.7%. The total export figures for refrigerators and televisions also showed declines of 5.5% and 3.1% respectively [12]. - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in exports, with Southeast Asia's cold appliance export value reaching approximately 6.7 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [14]. - North America, the Middle East, and Europe experienced significant declines in export values, with North America down 23% and Europe down 8% [15]. 2. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 3.77%, while the home appliance index decreased by 2.30% during the week [23]. - Key raw material prices showed a slight decline, with copper and aluminum prices down by 1.05% and 1.16% respectively in the week of November 17-21 [25]. - The USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.09, with a weekly increase of 0.21% [30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies such as Hisense, Midea Group, Haier, and TCL Electronics for their potential in both domestic and international markets, especially as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle which may boost demand for home appliances [5][44].
公募基础设施REITs周报-20251122
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-22 11:41
公募基础设施REITs周报 2025/11/22 REIT s 2025/11/17~2025/11/21 REIT s 1.14% 97.20 5.05% 1.78% 0.02% 0.14% 2.30% > >REIT s> > > 2 二级市场价量表现 二级市场估值情况 市场相关性统计 一级市场跟踪 3 REITs & & REITs REITs 数据来源: Wind,国金证券研究所 4 REIT s REIT 0.96 % REIT 0.56 % REIT 0.36 % REIT 0.36 % REIT - 0.05 % REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT 0.47 0.42 0.17 0.17 0.17 REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT 12.76 % 8.87 % 8.37 % 7.91 % 7.12 % | | | | | | | 上市首日回 上市以来 上市以来成交量 | | 本周成交量 | 上周成交量 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
小米集团-W(01810):用户触点超 10 亿量级,汽车首次盈利,高端化超预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-20 15:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 340.37 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.5%, with an adjusted net profit of 32.82 billion RMB, up 73.5% [2]. - The AIoT platform has connected over 1.035 billion IoT devices, marking a 20.2% increase year-on-year, surpassing major global competitors [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end smartphone positioning, with the Xiaomi 17 series seeing over 80% of its sales from Pro and Pro Max models, and a 24.1% share in the high-end smartphone market in mainland China [3]. - The IoT and consumer products segment achieved a revenue of 27.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 23.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The internet services segment saw a revenue increase of 10.8% year-on-year, with overseas internet service revenue growing by 34.9% [4]. - The automotive business is showing positive trends, with the YU7 model delivering 108,796 units, a 32.6% increase quarter-on-quarter, contributing to profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 113.12 billion RMB, a 22.3% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 11.31 billion RMB, up 80.9% [2]. Business Analysis - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion RMB in revenue in Q3 2025, with a global shipment of 43.4 million units, maintaining a market share of 16.7% globally and 13.6% in China [3]. - The IoT and consumer products segment's revenue reached 27.6 billion RMB, with a focus on smart home appliances and a new factory for smart appliances [3]. Internet Services - The internet services segment's revenue was 9.4 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in overseas revenue [4]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment is on track with the YU7 model's deliveries, indicating a positive trend towards profitability despite some margin pressures [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.7, 2.0, and 2.6 RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.89, 20.53, and 15.03 [5].
基金业绩基准新规下股票风格,池及基金风格刻画解决方案
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-20 11:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 31, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released the "Guidelines for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)" and the "Operating Rules for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", which stipulate fund performance rankings, style classifications, and style deviations [2]. - From a quantitative perspective, the report characterizes investable stock pools and fund styles under different styles, providing reference solutions for fund companies' risk control and product departments to implement regulatory documents [2]. - In the stock pool section, focusing on sector, industry, and thematic funds, the report expands the investable space and optimizes risk - return of traditional sector stock pools such as technology through the quantitative construction of the "technological innovation" investable pool while ensuring relatively controllable tracking errors [2][9]. - At the fund style characterization level, in addition to the traditional large - small cap and growth - value styles, strategy styles such as sentiment, GARP, and contrarian are introduced to further depict fund managers' capabilities and profiles [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1科技创新股票池定义 (Definition of Technological Innovation Stock Pool) - Traditional market - cap or growth - value style stock pools have clear benchmark index references from regulators, with relatively broad benchmark index thresholds, providing sufficient investment space for fund managers [9]. - For sector, industry, and thematic funds, the pain points of stock pools are: limited investable space when strictly following the benchmark index sample space, and lack of freedom for active fund managers with no guaranteed performance advantage over passive funds; when expanding the investable range, it is necessary to ensure the sector's characteristics while expanding the investable space [9]. - Taking the "technological innovation" investable pool as an example, the report expands the investable space and optimizes risk - return of traditional sector stock pools such as technology while ensuring relatively controllable tracking errors [9]. 3.2基金投资与策略风格 (Fund Investment and Strategy Styles) - **Fund Classification**: Funds are classified by investment type (position), style (including market - cap, growth - value, and strategy styles), sector, industry, theme, and individual stock characteristics such as position concentration and turnover rate. Strategy styles include sentiment, GARP, quality - growth, contrarian, trend, and dividend strategies [23]. - **Advanced Strategy Characterization Case: Contrarian Strategy**: To judge a fund's contrarian strategy, it is required that the average proportion of long - term dark - horse stocks reaches 50%, and a 50% win - rate is used as the judgment threshold for ability selection. The nature of long - term continuously held dark - horse stocks is also an important reference for the contrarian strategy. Market - concentrated stocks are defined, and the proportion of dark - horse stocks in a fund's heavy - position stocks and the win - rate of dark - horse stock selection are calculated [30][31]. 3.3产品特征与投资能力圈匹配:长期跑赢基准的基础 (Matching Product Characteristics with Investment Capability Circles: The Foundation for Long - Term Outperformance of Benchmarks) - Measuring a fund manager's capability circle is an important basis for product design or benchmark selection. Taking industry allocation ability as an example, it is necessary to measure the radius of the fund manager's capability circle and investment strength in each industry. The fund manager's time and energy input in an industry should be reflected in a higher allocation ratio in historical positions, but high allocation does not necessarily mean excellent investment strength. It is also necessary to calculate stock - selection and timing abilities and measure the breadth and depth of the fund manager's capability circle from multiple angles such as multi - period average industry allocation ratio, average excess return, excess return win - rate, timing return, and timing win - rate. The report also conducts a capability boundary study on popular tracks [35].
英伟达(NVDA):Q3 业绩高增,Q4 指引超预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-20 07:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $57 billion for FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22%. Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, up 66% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter. The GAAP gross margin was 73.4%, with a net profit of $31.9 billion, a 65% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company is optimistic about the AI industry's demand, with strong performance in cloud services and full utilization of deployed GPUs. The company expects to maintain a gross margin of around 75% despite rising upstream costs [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For FY26Q3, the company achieved a revenue of $57 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 73.4% and a net profit of $31.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65% [2]. Operational Analysis - The GB300 product line has successfully ramped up, contributing significantly to the Blackwell series revenue. The Hopper series continues to see demand, generating approximately $2 billion in revenue for FY26Q3. The company anticipates the Rubin series to begin mass production in the second half of 2026 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve GAAP net profits of $116.1 billion, $205.2 billion, and $283.4 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60%, 76%, and 38% [4].
超长信用债探微跟踪:买不动信用久期了?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-19 15:03
Report Summary 1. Core View - Due to the narrowing of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors have different views on the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds. With insufficient spread protection and uncertainty about the inflection point, if there are floating profits in ultra - long credit bonds, it is recommended to focus on the profit - taking strategy in the short term [5]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields have marginally adjusted back. Due to the compression of long - bond spreads to the lowest level since 2024, institutional investors' attitudes towards the allocation of ultra - long credit bonds have diverged, and profit - taking behavior has led to a slight adjustment in yields. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% has increased to 299 [2][12]. 2.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of ultra - long credit bonds has reached the bottom. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds was 2.3 billion, and only two urban investment entities, Beijing Infrastructure Investment and Anhui Investment Group, issued long - term bonds with a term of 7 years or more (preferred exercise). Although the trading sentiment in the cash bond market has weakened, investors' enthusiasm for participating in the primary market allocation of ultra - long urban investment bonds remains high [3][21]. 2.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The upward trend of the ultra - long credit bond index has significantly slowed down. This week, the general credit bond index above 7 years has slightly increased. The 7 - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index has increased by 0.03%, and the AA+ credit bond index above 10 years has only increased by 0.11%, performing weaker than long - term interest - rate bonds [29]. - The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds has significantly decreased. After three consecutive weeks of increase, the spread of general credit bonds above 7 years has been compressed to a low level. The spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 21bp. Concerned about the insufficient protection space of long - term credit spreads, the number of trading transactions of ultra - long general credit bonds has dropped to 315 this week, a decrease of 35.7% compared with the previous week [32]. - The intensity of buying ultra - long credit bonds at a low valuation has weakened significantly compared with the previous two weeks, and some urban investment long - term bond varieties have even shifted to high - valuation transactions. The proportion of TKN transactions in credit bonds above 10 years has dropped to 54.2% [37]. 3. Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating.