一、美国港口进口与预期同时回落。美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至 16 艘，4 月均值为 21.3 艘，港口集装箱进 口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至 32.1%，4 月末同比为 56%。 二、韩国前 10 日出口大幅下滑。韩国 5 月前 10 日出口同比增速从 13.4%大幅下滑至-23.8%，同比增速创新 2021 年 以来新低。 三、中国出口维持韧性。 风险提示 四、价格下行压力延续。按照模型估算，GDP 平减指数或下滑至-0.8%左右。5 月第一周，大宗商品价格进一步下滑， 焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、水泥价格分别下滑 5.7%、6%、2.4%、2.4%。按照目前的高频数据估算，5 月 PPI 同比增速或进 一步下行至-3.2%左右。 五、服务业带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳，5 月初按照高频数据估算，预计 GDP 同比增速回升至 5.1%。 美国国内需求持续走弱，带动全球需求下行，拖累中国出口增速 受全球需求和国内需求不足等因素影响，国内价格下行压力加大，通缩持续 在外需走弱时，关注行业需求变化，国内部分行业产能利用率或面临下行压力 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank unexpectedly advanced the timing of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, implementing a package of ten monetary policy measures to address global economic uncertainties and trade tensions[12] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, contributing to a decline in short-term bond yields[12] - The yield on 1-year government bonds has dropped to 1.4%, while the 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 1.63%[12] Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - Despite a significant decline in yields, buying interest in medium and short-term bonds remains restrained, with trading volumes not reflecting the expected demand[15] - The proportion of credit bonds yielding below 2.2% has risen to 77%, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in the current market[36] - The trading volume of 3-year and shorter credit bonds has decreased, with a notable drop in weekly turnover rates[23] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on 2-year credit bonds, particularly high-quality city investment bonds rated AA(2), to ensure a balanced yield amidst market volatility[50] - The strategy of extending duration in credit bonds is limited due to low yields and the risk of capital loss, with many investors preferring to maintain short-duration positions[6] - The yield on 4 to 5-year secondary capital bonds has fallen below the upper limit of 10-year government bonds plus 30 basis points, raising concerns about low risk-reward ratios[49]

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产均上涨、港股物业下跌。本周（5.3-5.9）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+0.4%，在各板 块中位列第 31；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1%，在各板块中位列第 7。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为- 2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+0.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相 对收益分别为-3.1%和-4.2%。 本周五上海四批次土拍：杨浦及松江地块溢价率超 20%。本周（5.3-5.9）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 451 万㎡，单 周环比-29%，单周同比-38%，平均溢价率 8%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 12017 万㎡，累计同比- 0.2%；年初至今，绿城中国、中海地产、保利发展、滨江集团、建发房产的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周假期因素新房销售环比下滑，同比维持正增，小阳春过后景气度延续承压。本周（5.3-5.9）47 个城市商品 房成交合计 263 万平米，周环比-20%，周同比+9%。其中：一线城市周环比-30%，周同比+21%；二线城市周环比-28%， 周同比-1%；三四 ...

Electronic Sector - TSMC's April revenue exceeded expectations, reaching NT$349.6 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 22.2% and a year-on-year growth of 48.1%, marking a historical monthly high [1] - Cumulative revenue for January to April was NT$1,188.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, also a record for the same period [1] - The growth is driven by AI demand and preemptive stocking by clients concerned about tariff impacts [1] - The electronic sector's Q1 2025 revenue was NT$839.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with net profit of NT$35.5 billion, up 31.2% [1] - The semiconductor materials sector showed strong performance, benefiting from increased wafer fab utilization and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Communication Sector - Leading optical module companies reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue and profit both achieving high growth [2] - The market demand for optical modules is expected to further release due to positive signals from policy and ongoing high capital expenditures from cloud vendors [2] - Major cloud companies' capital expenditures increased significantly, with Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's spending rising 69% to US$70.6 billion [2] Computer Sector - Google DeepMind released an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing programming capabilities, allowing users to generate complete web applications and games from a single prompt [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong growth in sectors like intelligent driving and software outsourcing [3] - The impact of tariff policies on computer companies' fundamentals is minimal, with domestic substitution and self-control sectors likely to benefit [3] Media and Internet Sector - Continuous tracking of AI application landing situations is recommended, with a focus on companies with upward marginal fundamentals and M&A themes [4] - The digital media sector has shown strong performance recently, while the film and television sector is expected to decline due to the off-season [4] - Companies like Tencent and Kuaishou are advancing in AI-generated content, indicating a growing potential for AI applications in media [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating potential for double-digit growth in performance due to supportive policies and high market activity [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a mismatch between high profitability and low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2x as of May 9, which is at the 21st percentile over the past decade. This divergence is expected to correct as policy and merger catalysts continue to emerge [1][2]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: (1) Increased expectations for brokerage mergers, (2) Recovery in consumer loan demand benefiting from policy support, and (3) Specific opportunities in companies like Sichuan Shuangma, which has a strong position in the technology sector and improved exit channels [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share market saw the CSI 300 index increase by 2.0%, with the non-bank financial sector rising by 1.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.3 percentage points [8]. Data Tracking - Brokerage trading activity is robust, with an average daily trading volume of 13,534 billion CNY, up 22.6% week-on-week. The new issuance of equity mutual funds in the first four months of 2025 reached 1589.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [12]. - In the investment banking sector, the total fundraising from IPOs and refinancing in April 2025 was 247 billion CNY and 1,671 billion CNY, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 6% and an increase of 51% [12]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have allowed various financial institutions, including insurance funds, to invest in technology innovation bonds, which is expected to enhance investment opportunities in the sector [34].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained rating) [10] Core Views - The tourism and hotel sectors are experiencing high demand, with positive data from the May Day holiday indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel and hotel performance [15][17] - The IPOs of tea brands like Hu Shang A Yi and Ba Wang Cha Ji are noteworthy, with significant improvements in same-store sales due to a low base in April [15] - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic tourism demand and the potential for growth in the restaurant and hotel sectors, driven by favorable policies and improving fundamentals [15][8] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The May Day holiday saw 314 million domestic trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [17][19] - Key tourist destinations like Jiu Hua, Huang Shan, and E Mei experienced significant visitor growth during the holiday [15][32] Key Company Updates - Hu Shang A Yi completed its IPO with a valuation of approximately 16.6 billion HKD, reporting a revenue of 3.29 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% [3][29] - Jiu Hua Mountain received 234,200 visitors during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [32] - Huang Shan's various scenic spots welcomed 2.3658 million visitors, up 28.58% [32] - E Mei Mountain saw 907,400 visitors, achieving a total revenue of 830 million yuan, a 15.82% increase [32] Market Performance - The hotel industry's RevPAR increased by 12.0% year-on-year during the May Day week, with improvements in both occupancy and average daily rate [24] - The report notes that the social service sector's performance ranked 27th among 31 sectors in terms of growth over the past two weeks [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant sector, particularly growth-oriented companies and those in turnaround situations, such as Gu Ming and Da Shi Shares [15][8] - In the hotel sector, the sustained tourism demand and favorable market conditions suggest potential for companies like Shou Li Hotel and Atour [15][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, highlighting favorable policy developments and production stability [2][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Shandong Province's new market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy, which is expected to stabilize demand expectations for the second half of the year [6]. - It notes the potential changes in the European inverter market and suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from these shifts [6]. - The report highlights the increasing activity in offshore wind projects in China and the UK, indicating a growing market for related companies [2][9]. - It discusses the robust performance of the electric vehicle sector, particularly focusing on the launch of new models and the anticipated demand growth [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - Shandong Province has released a comprehensive market-oriented pricing scheme for renewable energy, which is expected to support demand recovery in the second half of the year [6]. - The report indicates that May's component production is expected to remain stable, which is better than anticipated, contributing to market demand recovery [2][6]. - The European inverter market may undergo changes, with potential beneficiaries identified among Chinese companies [6]. Wind Energy - The Zhejiang deep-sea wind turbine bidding process has commenced, with expectations for construction to start within the year, indicating a positive trend in domestic offshore wind energy [9]. - The UK government has initiated reforms to its offshore wind bidding process, which may accelerate project demand [9]. Electric Grid - The report highlights the commissioning of the ±800 kV ultra-high voltage direct current transmission project in Gansu to Shandong, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [8]. - The first batch of framework bids for distribution network equipment in Southern China is valued at 5.4 billion yuan, indicating sustained high investment levels [8]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - The report notes that CATL's Hong Kong IPO has passed the hearing, signaling an expansion of the new energy sector's capital market activities [3][15]. - The electric vehicle market is expected to maintain strong demand, supported by new vehicle launches and favorable policies [12][16]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report indicates a long-term decline in hydrogen prices, with cities that have low hydrogen costs likely to promote commercial vehicle adoption [10]. - China has surpassed Japan in hydrogen-related patents, establishing itself as a global leader in the hydrogen energy sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, recommending a focus on leading domestic companies with high dividend support and growth certainty for 2025 [5][13]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of stabilization in domestic real estate, with potential for long-term investment opportunities as consumer subsidy policies improve [5][13]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products, with significant sales increases reported [16]. - The paper packaging industry faces short-term pressure due to seasonal demand decline and price drops in raw materials, but long-term consumption growth is expected [17]. - The light consumer goods sector is seeing innovation and brand strength, particularly in pet food and trendy products, indicating potential for growth [18]. - The two-wheeler market is benefiting from trade-in policies, with significant sales increases noted, particularly in electric bicycles [19]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales in Q1 2025 showed improvement compared to previous quarters, with leading companies expected to perform well as real estate stabilizes [5][13]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for growth [13][14]. New Tobacco Sector - The report notes a tightening regulatory environment in the U.S. for vaping products, but also highlights growth in heated tobacco product sales, with a 19% increase reported [16]. - Companies like Smoore International are recommended for their competitive positioning in the expanding compliant market [16]. Paper Packaging Sector - The sector is currently under pressure due to seasonal demand and declining prices for various paper products, with a forecasted consumption increase of 3.56% in 2024 [17]. - Key players like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology are noted for their resilience and potential for market share growth [17]. Light Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of brand innovation and market expansion, particularly in the pet food segment, with companies like Guobao Pet and Bubble Mart highlighted for their growth potential [18][20]. - The AI glasses market is also mentioned as a focus area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in the lens manufacturing sector [18]. Two-Wheeler Market - The trade-in program for electric bicycles has led to significant sales growth, with 4.2 million units reported as of April 24 [19]. - Companies like Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology are recommended for their strong market positions and innovative product offerings [19][21].

Group 1: Copper Industry - The investment rating for the copper industry is currently neutral, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.89% to $9,439.00 per ton and Shanghai copper prices rising by 0.30% to 77,500 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply-side data indicates that the import copper concentrate processing fee index has dropped to -$43.11 per ton, while Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 123,200 tons in March [1][13]. - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates have decreased to 62.79%, down 17.10 percentage points week-on-week, primarily due to high copper prices leading to a significant reduction in new orders [1][13]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry - The investment rating for the aluminum industry is neutral, with LME aluminum prices decreasing by 0.66% to $2,418.00 per ton and Shanghai aluminum prices falling by 1.63% to 19,600 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 620,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to earlier in the week, while aluminum oxide weekly operating rates have been adjusted down by 0.07 percentage points to 79.67% [2][14]. - Downstream demand remains weak, with companies primarily adopting a wait-and-see approach and purchasing based on demand [2][14]. Group 3: Gold Industry - The investment rating for the gold industry is positive, with COMEX gold prices decreasing by 0.43% to $3,329.10 per ounce, influenced by international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3][15]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings have decreased by 1.45 tons to 937.94 tons, reflecting market dynamics amid geopolitical developments [3][15]. Group 4: Rare Earth Industry - The investment rating for the rare earth industry is positive, with prices rising due to export controls and supply disruptions from Myanmar [4][32]. - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased by 3.65% to 423,300 yuan per ton, while dysprosium oxide has risen by 9.87% to 1,670,000 yuan per ton [4][32]. - The overall supply-demand situation is improving, with expectations of moderate quota growth and increased focus on rare earth resources amid global geopolitical shifts [4][32]. Group 5: Lithium and Cobalt Industries - The investment rating for the lithium industry is neutral, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 3.35% to 66,000 yuan per ton [5]. - Cobalt prices remain stable, with the price of cobalt at 242,000 yuan per ton, reflecting steady demand in the market [5]. - Nickel prices have increased by 2.7% to $15,800 per ton, indicating a positive trend in the nickel market [5].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook on Chinese companies deeply engaged in Africa, suggesting potential revaluation opportunities for these firms [13]. Core Insights - Africa is emerging as a popular region for overseas expansion, with significant growth potential in East African countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zambia, which are expected to see GDP growth rates of 5.44%, 4.51%, 8.89%, and 4.04% respectively in 2024 [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local integration and operational capabilities for companies looking to expand in Africa, distinguishing between "going abroad" and "exporting" [13]. - The approval of Han Gao Group's IPO is noted, with projected revenue growth of 17.04% to 26.77% for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong market position in the home hardware and outdoor furniture sector [14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - East Africa is gaining attention for its economic stability and growth potential, with several Chinese companies actively establishing operations in the region [13]. - Key sectors for investment include infrastructure, building materials, mining, and consumer goods, with specific examples of companies like Keda Manufacturing and China National Materials [13]. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into the construction materials market, noting a 27 CNY/t year-on-year increase in cement prices, while glass prices have seen a slight decline [15]. - It suggests a cautious outlook for the steel market due to weak demand compared to the previous year [15]. National Subsidy Tracking - The Chinese government has allocated 810 billion CNY in special bonds to support consumer goods, with local subsidy programs being implemented to stimulate demand in home renovation and construction materials [16]. Important Changes - Notable management share purchases were reported for Huaxin Cement, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [17]. - North New Building Materials announced a stock incentive plan, reflecting strategic growth initiatives [17].