- The report tracks the performance of various enhanced index funds, including Huashang Quantitative Selected CSI 300 Enhanced A, which achieved an excess return of 0.66% last week relative to its benchmark[4][37][40] - Among CSI 500 Enhanced Index Funds, Haitong CSI 500 Enhanced A delivered the best performance last week with an excess return of 1.06%[4][37][40] - For CSI 1000 Enhanced Index Funds, Guojin CSI 1000 Enhanced A achieved an excess return of 0.97% last week, while over the past year, Bosera CSI 1000 Enhanced A led with an excess return of 15.32%[4][37][38] - In the CSI 2000 Enhanced Index Funds category, Wanjia CSI 2000 Enhanced A performed best last week with an excess return of 0.66%, while Huixintong CSI 2000 Enhanced A achieved the highest one-year excess return of 20.64%[4][37][38]

Group 1: Bond Performance Insights - The "24 铁道 MTN006B" bond shows a significant valuation price deviation of -0.35% with a net price of 108.70 and a yield of 2.12%[4] - The "21 万科02" bond has a positive deviation of 0.75% with a net price of 96.31 and a yield of 9.50%[5] - The "24 齐商银行永续债 01" bond has a slight positive deviation of 0.07% with a net price of 99.63 and a yield of 3.40%[6] Group 2: Market Trends - The majority of non-financial credit bonds have a transaction maturity concentrated in the 2 to 3-year range, with 3 to 4-year bonds showing the highest discount transaction ratio[2] - Real estate bonds rank high among those with transaction yields exceeding 10%[8] - The construction materials sector exhibits the largest average valuation price deviation among industries[2] Group 3: Risk Considerations - There is a risk of statistical data bias or omission, which may lead to discrepancies in reported bond performance[3] - Bonds with significant valuation price deviations may face credit risk due to changes in issuer qualifications[18]

投资逻辑 计算机行业观点：我们处在一个大的变革期，一方面，上游环节因为大国竞争的愈来愈烈，科技制裁加剧不可逆，而 呈现出更强的国产替代、自主可控的诉求。DS 为代表的高性价比低成本开源模型，证明了中国科技行业的创新引领 能力，也让国产芯片有了更多适配的机会。我们认为，特朗普关税政策对计算机公司基本面影响相对较小，国产替代 /自主可控板块有望受益。1）基本面角度看，计算机下游市场需求中，海外收入占比约 10%，且征税主要针对需要清 关的实体商品，对于软件影响不大，因此预计对于板块总体的业绩端影响较小。少数美国收入占比较高的硬件/软硬结 合产品的公司，在过去几年通过本地化生产、安全库存等策略进行不同程度的规避。且考虑到关税落地后，国内可能 继续出台稳增长的政策，对于以国内需求为主的计算机板块影响正面。2）估值角度看，计算机板块受市场风险偏好 和情绪影响大，短期美股和海外资本市场乃至大类资产的回撤预计一定程度也将影响到中国资本市场，进而带来计算 机板块估值体系的压力，这一点不可忽视。3）受益的角度看，对等制裁背景下，预计国产替代/自主可控迫切度提升， 成为市场关注点，包括信创、华为产业链、工业软件、军工信息化、CI ...

投资逻辑 计算机行业观点：我们处在一个大的变革期，一方面，上游环节因为大国竞争的愈来愈烈，科技制裁加剧不可逆，而 呈现出更强的国产替代、自主可控的诉求。DS 为代表的高性价比低成本开源模型，证明了中国科技行业的创新引领 能力，也让国产芯片有了更多适配的机会。我们认为，特朗普关税政策对计算机公司基本面影响相对较小，国产替代 /自主可控板块有望受益。1）基本面角度看，计算机下游市场需求中，海外收入占比约 10%，且征税主要针对需要清 关的实体商品，对于软件影响不大，因此预计对于板块总体的业绩端影响较小。少数美国收入占比较高的硬件/软硬结 合产品的公司，在过去几年通过本地化生产、安全库存等策略进行不同程度的规避。且考虑到关税落地后，国内可能 继续出台稳增长的政策，对于以国内需求为主的计算机板块影响正面。2）估值角度看，计算机板块受市场风险偏好 和情绪影响大，短期美股和海外资本市场乃至大类资产的回撤预计一定程度也将影响到中国资本市场，进而带来计算 机板块估值体系的压力，这一点不可忽视。3）受益的角度看，对等制裁背景下，预计国产替代/自主可控迫切度提升， 成为市场关注点，包括信创、华为产业链、工业软件、军工信息化、CI ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating a potential recovery in the sector due to recent tariff negotiations [4]. Core Insights - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating, which is expected to improve market sentiment and alleviate long-term demand pressures [2][3]. - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics within the domestic chemical industry, providing a buffer period of 90 days for certain tariffs, which may lead to improved industry sentiment [2]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term impact of tariffs on the chemical industry is more about downstream demand transmission through the industrial chain, suggesting a gradual recovery in export proportions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 12, substantial progress was made in US-China trade talks, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs by the US and corresponding actions by China [2]. Investment Logic - The easing of tariffs is expected to improve market expectations and alleviate long-term demand pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of chemical products exported to the US [2]. - The report highlights that the domestic chemical industry has recently undergone a significant capacity release cycle, which has raised industry sentiment [2]. - The long-term trend indicates a continuous push towards domestic production and supply chain security, with significant advancements in material fields over the past seven years [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that have been significantly impacted by US tariffs, such as the electronics, textiles, and tire industries, which may see recovery due to tariff relief [4]. - It also suggests monitoring the propane dehydrogenation industry, which has benefited from reduced tariff costs, despite ongoing supply pressures [4]. - The report encourages attention to opportunities in domestic substitution as the industry continues to push for higher-end material production [4].

2025/5/12 1 图：生猪养殖周期示意图 图：猪价指引产能导致周期往复 2 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 • 生产特性：生猪的生长速度无法加快，从能繁母猪配种开始生产需要10个月的时间，通过后备时间更长；而市面上 补充后备母猪为50-80KG，需要饲养至120KG以上才可以开始配种，猪价指导生产，盈利增产/亏损减产，现今亦然 如此而养殖户在决策上存在一定的时滞性， • 时滞性的来源： • 1.对后市的预期（预期乐观⬆/悲观⬇） • 2.养殖户手中的资金(宽松⬆/紧张⬇) • 以上特点使得盈利情况指引未来产能方向，亏损时间越长产能去化越充分，非瘟前每一轮周期上行多在2年左右。 图：生猪繁育体系示意图 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 3 图：历史猪周期总结（元/公斤） | | 周期跨度 | 上行区间 | 下行区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最高价 | 最低价 | 波动幅度 | | 第一轮 | 2006/5-2010/4 | 2006/5-2008/3 | 2008/4-2010/4 | 17.45 | 6.76 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new tobacco products industry, with a focus on the growth potential of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch segments [8]. Core Insights - The global market for new tobacco products is projected to reach $86.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, with significant contributions from smokeless tobacco, vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products [2][17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch products, with the latter expected to grow by 51.0% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions showing robust growth, particularly in the U.S., which remains the largest market for new tobacco products [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Market Overview - The new tobacco products market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2017 to 2024 [17]. - By 2025, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating increases across all product categories [2][17]. 2. Nicotine Pouches - The global nicotine pouch market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 21.2 billion pouches in 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [3]. - Major tobacco companies dominate this segment, with significant market shares held by PMI, BAT, and Altria [3]. 3. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's revenue from new tobacco products is expected to reach $14.66 billion in 2024, a 17.0% increase, with heated tobacco product shipments growing by 11.5% [4]. - The number of PMI's new tobacco users has reached 32.2 million, with a 72.0% replacement rate of traditional cigarette consumers [4]. 4. British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT is accelerating its "smokeless strategy," with its modern oral tobacco segment showing a 47% revenue increase [5]. - The launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to disrupt the current heated tobacco market dynamics [5]. 5. Altria - Altria's NJOY brand has shown significant growth, with a 15.3% increase in sales volume in 2024 [6]. - The on! brand also experienced a 40.2% increase in sales, indicating a strong performance in the oral nicotine segment [6]. 6. Imperial Brands - Imperial Brands reported a 24.2% revenue increase in its new tobacco segment, driven by strong performance in Europe [6]. - The company is actively launching new products to cater to changing consumer preferences [6]. 7. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco revenue is projected to reach 989 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase [7]. - The Ploom brand is expanding its presence in emerging markets, contributing to overall sales growth [7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding vaping market and partnerships with major players like BAT and NJOY [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all increased last week, with the CSI 300 index futures rising the most by 2.27%, while the CSI 500 index futures saw the largest decline of 1.68% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts increased compared to the previous week, with the IF contract seeing the largest increase of 35.46% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -7.15%, -12.46%, -14.21%, and -5.19% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF and IH while deepening for IC and IM [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 94.10%, 98.80%, 99.20%, and 88.20% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - There are arbitrage opportunities for the IF current contract, with a required basis rate of 0.33% for a positive arbitrage and -0.48% for a negative arbitrage over the next 5 trading days [4][12] - The estimated dividend points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 22.15, 44.10, 16.55, and 36.81 respectively [4][12] Group 3: Market Expectations - The basis changes are influenced by dividends and investor trading sentiment, with expectations of significant fluctuations in basis due to large-scale buying and selling by major funds [4][13] - Recent financial policies, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][13] - Current basis levels are at historical lows, and the positive cross-period price difference indicates a high cost-performance ratio for using near-month contracts for hedging [4][13] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Eight brokerages believe that ongoing policies will support the capital market, boosting market confidence and reducing risk premiums [5][49] - Five brokerages expect that the technology growth trend is likely to continue in the short term, with small-cap growth stocks performing prominently [5][49] - There is a consensus among brokerages regarding the positive outlook for sectors such as technology, new consumption, military industry, and banking [5][49]

Group 1: ETF Rotation Strategy Performance - The ETF rotation strategy, constructed using GBDT+NN machine learning factors, has shown excellent out-of-sample performance with an IC value of 44.48% and a long position excess return of 0.73% last week [3][14] - The annualized excess return of the strategy is 11.88%, with a maximum drawdown of 17.31% [17][18] - Recent performance includes an excess return of 0.20% last week, 1.64% for the month, and 0.35% year-to-date [18][20] Group 2: High-Frequency Factor Overview - Various high-frequency factors have demonstrated strong overall performance, with the price range factor showing a long position excess return of 4.93% year-to-date, while the regret avoidance factor has underperformed with a return of 0.27% [4][22] - The price range factor measures the activity level of stocks within different price ranges, indicating investor expectations for future price movements [5][25] - The regret avoidance factor reflects the impact of investor emotions on stock price expectations, showing stable out-of-sample excess returns [5][37] Group 3: High-Frequency and Fundamental Factor Combination - A combined strategy of high-frequency and fundamental factors has been developed, yielding an annualized excess return of 14.76% with a maximum drawdown of 4.52% [6][59] - The strategy has shown stable out-of-sample performance, with a year-to-date excess return of 3.74% [60] - The integration of fundamental factors with high-frequency factors has improved the performance metrics of the strategy [57][59]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on defensive strategies and specific sectors such as compound fertilizers and domestic substitutes [2]. Core Insights - The chemical market has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.07% [10]. - Key themes in the market include strong performance in military and robotics materials, while companies with poor Q1 results are under pressure [1]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and other countries, affecting trade dynamics and inventory levels in the US [1]. - AI demand is robust, with leading companies like AMD reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a strong market for AI-related products [2]. - OPEC's decision to increase production raises questions about the sustainability of oil prices, with mixed signals from supply and demand factors [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $62.05 per barrel, down 2.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $59.04 per barrel, down 1% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector lagged [10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included fluorochemicals (5.02% increase), while coal chemicals saw a slight decline [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in production rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 44.8%, down 11.5% week-on-week [27]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is expected to improve due to reduced supply and increased demand from the beverage industry [28]. - The dye market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite weak demand from the textile industry [30]. Key Events - Significant diplomatic meetings are scheduled, including high-level economic dialogues between China and the US, which may influence trade policies [3]. - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about compliance among member countries [3]. Price Movements - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market [26][29]. - Specific products like DAP and titanium dioxide are experiencing price adjustments due to supply and demand dynamics [31][32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on sectors with defensive characteristics and potential for growth amid market volatility [2].