S1130518080002 yuan_wei gjzq.com.cn S1130514100001 zhaohc gjzq.com.cn S1130523080002 heguanzhou gjzq.com.cn 投资逻辑 本周医药行情演绎较为缓和，整体温和上行但涨幅弱于其他大部分一级行业。年报一季报落幕，医药板块仍在寻找和 调整方向进程中，预计交易调整完成后新一轮行情即将展开。我们在前期年报一季报复盘报告中指出，医药政策端、 基本面、市场面的压制因素已经基本出清，同时 2024 年医药业绩基数前高后低，基数压力逐季度下降，我们非常看 好 2025 年下半年医药板块成功实现景气度反转，业绩端增速止跌回升，回到增长趋势。 药品：本周，科济药业发布了通用型 CAR-T 的临床数据，海思科的镇痛新药安瑞克芬获批上市。全球生物医药创新 正随着基础科学发现的不断新突破和新技术手段的应用而得到加速发展，包括中国在内的创新药企也将会有更多里程 碑式突破的新分子或治疗手段得到商业化应用。本土创新药企正在日益崭露出国际领先的创新实力，在营收业绩、对 外授权合作以及国际权威会议与期刊上发布的优异临床数据方面都展现出靓丽成果。我 ...

1 风险提示：测算模型失效风险；重仓股补全与实际差异较大风险；基金持仓、久期大幅度偏离的风险。基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究 使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 2 • 本周（2025/05/12-2025/ 05/16，下同），沪深300上涨1.12%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位下降0.10%，至87.66% 。 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（14.99%）、电力设备（9.28%）、医药生物（6.49%）、汽车（6.49%）、机械设备（6.29%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：国防军工(+0.50%）、非银金融(+0.35%）、计算机(+0.07%）；减仓前3大行业：医药生物(-0.20%）、轻工制造(-0.16%）、电子(- 0.11%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率上行5bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.23，至3.02年，位于近5年的99.70%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为2.70年；本周久期分歧度有所上升，测算久期标准差上升0.09，至1.55年。短期纯债久期中位数上升0.01，至0.97年。 • 信用债基久 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 公用事业及环保产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 公共事业与环保组 分析师：李蓉（执业 S1130525040001） lirong＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张君昊（执业 S1130524070001） zhangjunhao1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐执敬（执业 S1130525020002） tangzhijing＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：汪知瑶 wangzhiyao＠gjzq.com.cn 从 GDP 增长的归因分析看电力消费弹性系数的变化 ◼ 本周（5.12-5.16）上证综指上涨 0.76%，创业板指上涨 1.38%。碳中和板块上涨 0.30%，公用事业板块上涨 0.24%， 环保板块上涨 0.17%,煤炭板块上涨 1.81%。 ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好的龙头火电企业，如华能国际、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电：建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企 业中国核电。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 历年来 GDP 增长的刺激因子发生结构性变 ...

分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，除了 TL/T 多空比分位值回落 33 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回升，其中 30/10Y 国债换手率、1/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别大幅回升 65、60 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 17 个百分点。②机构 行为类指标中，除配置盘力度分位值上升 16 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回落，基金久期、基金-农商买入量分位值 分别下降 25、51 个百分点，带动机构行为分位均值下降 10 个百分点。③本期市场、政策利差分位值均上升，带动利 差分位均值下降 12 个百分点。④股债、商品、不动产比价分位值均回落，消费品比价分位值小幅上升 9 个百分点， 比价分位均值回升 7 个百分点。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落 1 个百分点至 43% 其中降幅较大的指标包括 TL/T 多空比、基金久期、基金-农商买入量、市场及政策利差、商品比价，升幅较大的指标 包括 30/10Y、1/10Y 国债换手率，分位值分别上升 65、60 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 1/10Y 国债换手率、 基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 20% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a defensive stance in the bond market, with long-term interest rates declining initially before concerns about liquidity resurfaced [2][7] - The market has shown a tendency towards a defensive posture, as evidenced by a decrease in the median duration of medium to long-term bond funds and a significant sell-off in ultra-long bonds [2][7] - The report highlights that most assets have completed over 80% of their recovery from the recent volatility, with equity assets showing strong rebounds while commodities lag behind [3][10][14] Group 2 - The report discusses the potential risks of a repeat of the tight liquidity scenario seen in the first quarter, noting that while there are some similarities in the macro environment, there are also significant differences, particularly regarding domestic demand uncertainty [4][16] - It is suggested that the current long-term interest rates are at the lower end of a reasonable range, with key indicators such as credit growth and return on invested capital (ROIC) providing context for this assessment [4][17] - The report emphasizes that further opening of long-term interest rate space will depend on effective movement in short-term rates, which currently lack downward momentum without triggering factors [5][20][33] Group 3 - The report outlines that the bond market's recovery is contingent on the central bank's actions regarding currency stability and potential resumption of government bond trading operations [5][25][29] - It notes that the current market valuation is at the lower end of a reasonable range, with the yield curve expected to remain flat and weakly oscillating [5][33] - The report also mentions that the central bank's recent actions, including net withdrawals of funds, have influenced the bond market's performance, with various maturities experiencing upward pressure on yields [34][39]

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.05.12-2025.05.16）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2620.55 点(周环比+0.05%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3889.09 点（周环比+1.12%），深证综指收于 1986.50 点（周环比+0.80%），上证综指收于 3367.46 点（周环比+0.76%），科 创板收于 995.24 点（周环比-1.10%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 美容护理（周环比+3.08%）、非银金融（周环比+2.49%)、汽车（周环比+2.40%），农林牧渔（周环比+0.05%）排名第 20。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.71 公斤/头，生猪均重处于历史同期较高位置，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比-0.12pct 至 16.38%，近期生猪存在增重、二育以及冻品入库等累库行为，累库下生猪价格震荡，行业供给压力持续后移，预计生 猪价格随着供给的增加和库存端的压力释放存在下跌空间。目前关于猪价悲观预期已经在期货端有较为充分的释放， 而年后价格表现强于此前预期使得整体预期略有上修，产能端缓慢的补充状态对2025年猪价的担忧存在 ...

Group 1: Consumption Strategy and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth new consumption sectors, dividend defensive stocks, and traditional companies transitioning to new consumption [3][13] - High-growth new consumption opportunities include new tobacco products, beauty care, trendy toys, pet products, and tea beverages [3][13] - Dividend defensive stocks are prioritized due to unclear policy signals and ongoing domestic demand impacts, with a focus on white goods [3][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Midstream Consumption Tracking - In April, the domestic CPI remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.5% [4][14] - April's export growth reached 8.1% year-on-year, marking the highest since 2022, although it showed signs of slowing due to a decrease in home appliance exports [4][16] Group 3: Home Appliances - In April, the overall retail sales of home appliances increased by 21.8% online and 18.6% offline, with the national subsidy for 11 major categories growing by 18.2% [7][28] - Specific categories showed varied performance: air conditioners up 34.8%, refrigerators up 1.0%, and washing machines up 10.8% online [7][28][29] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The new tobacco sector is experiencing upward momentum, with clear growth trends in the HNB industry and potential market share gains for companies like Smoore International [7][30] - The trendy toy market remains robust, with GMV growth of 109% in April year-on-year, driven by new company entries and innovative operational strategies [7][30] Group 5: Textile and Apparel - The easing of US tariffs is expected to boost export and domestic demand, with a focus on new consumption and brands with unique advantages [7][33][37] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a recovery in client confidence following tariff reductions, which may lead to increased orders and improved domestic factory utilization [7][37] Group 6: Social Services - The tea beverage sector is benefiting from improved same-store sales and competitive dynamics in the takeaway market, with expectations for further growth [7][35] - Hotel performance showed strong leisure demand during the May holiday, although business travel remains weak [7][35] Group 7: Retail and E-commerce - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market is evolving, with regulatory pressures on major platforms like Meituan and JD, although the overall competition remains intense [7][36] - Meituan's initiatives in instant retail and national subsidies are expected to impact JD's core categories significantly [7][38]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFLYTEK, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications, recommending companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology [2] Core Insights - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with computing power sustaining high levels and application acceleration [11] - The report anticipates that overall demand in the second half of the year may be stronger than in the first half, driven by policy and funding support [11] - The report identifies several sectors with varying degrees of prosperity, including AI, intelligent driving, software outsourcing, and financial IT, with some sectors like construction and medical IT showing weaker prospects [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report discusses the launch of image generation features by Manus and video generation models by Huoshan Engine, emphasizing the flexibility and commercial potential of these technologies [11] - It notes that approximately 90% of computing demand comes from domestic G-end and large B-end users, indicating a lag in demand response to policy changes [11] 2. Sector Performance - The report categorizes the prosperity of various sub-sectors, indicating that AI applications and intelligent driving are accelerating upwards, while sectors like construction IT and medical IT are at a low point [10][12] 3. Market Review - From May 12 to May 16, 2025, the computer industry index fell by 1.26%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [16] 4. Upcoming Events - The report highlights several upcoming industry events, including the VR/AR Expo in Shanghai and the Google I/O Developer Conference, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [30][31]

通信周观点： 1）美国商务部 5 月 13 日升级对华芯片管制，撤销《AI 扩散规则》并出台三项新规：全球禁用华为昇腾芯片、限制美 芯片用于中国 AI 训练、强化供应链审查。此外黄仁勋受访时表示英伟达将重新推出面向中国市场的芯片，但不会再 推出 Hopper 系列产品，预计将采用 GDDR7 显存替代 HBM 高带宽内存，以满足美国出口限制要求。我们认为从性能看， 国产芯片性能或将大超英伟达改版后芯片性能，利好国产算力芯片。2）因英伟达 AI 芯片出货量不及预期（GB200 出 货不及预期，且 H20 受到管制，NVIDIA 计提约 55 亿美元的与 H20 相关的费用损失），而国内芯片供应增长需要时间， 阿里、腾讯等互联网厂商 1Q25 资本支出略低于市场预期。我们认为短期看，互联网厂商全年资本开支可能略有下滑， 但这也将加速 AI 芯片的国产替代进程。长期看伴随国产 AI 芯片的起量，AI 仍将驱动业务增长。3）英伟达 5 月 14 日 宣布在上海设立 AI 芯片研发中心，并与沙特签署 18000 台 GB300 服务器订单。此举凸显其全球布局战略，将推动高 速光模块及液冷技术需求。海外算力基建需求激增， ...

氢能与燃料电池：国家能源局发文，江苏迅速跟进，绿色液体燃料将迎来新发展。通过"试点先行 + 政策配套"模 式，构建生物柴油、SAF、绿色甲醇、绿氨等多领域协同推进的政策体系，打通下游绿氢消纳场景。跨省项目叠加高速 过路费减免政策，氢能高速渐入正轨，氢车推广提速完成十四五目标。 本周重要行业事件： 光储风：人民日报刊发国家市监总局局长关于整治"内卷式"竞争的署名文章；中美关税大幅下调（大储直接受益）； 广东省发布机制电价政策征求意见稿（海风执行 14 年、其他新能源 12 年）；大金重工新签 10 亿欧元海风基础订单。 电网：国家电网有限公司发布《电力"人工智能+"白皮书》；疆电（南疆）送电川渝特高压直流工程环评第二次公示。 子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：在光伏行业走出过剩困境的道路上，顶层关注力度丝毫不减，但驱动行业反转的核心力量，或正从政策 强制干预向产业自发自主转移，曙光已初现；中美贸易关系缓和实质性利好大储，继续重点推荐：阳光电源、阿特斯。 风电：大金重工新签 10 亿欧洲海风基础订单，我们统计 2025-2026 年将有接近 20GW 的海风项目将进行海风基础招 标，看好公司年内订单持续落地；运达 ...