1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer dropped to 40%, possibly affected by the light trading before the New Year's Day holiday. Most indicator quantiles declined, while a few increased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 25%, with changes in the distribution of indicators across different intervals [14][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading Drops to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 40%. Most indicator quantiles declined, such as institutional leverage, 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, etc., while some like bond fund profit - taking pressure increased [14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range Remains at 25% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 (25%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) in the neutral range, and 10 (50%) in the cold range. Some indicators changed their intervals, like 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate and institutional leverage moving from over - heated to neutral, and long - term Treasury trading proportion moving from neutral to over - heated [18]. - The average value of various spreads decreased significantly. The trading heat quantile average dropped 16 percentage points, the institutional behavior quantile average dropped 7 percentage points, the spread quantile average dropped 5 percentage points, and the comparison quantile average dropped 4 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. Institutional Leverage Quantile Drops Significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators dropped to 50%, neutral to 33%, and cold remained at 17%. Institutional leverage and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate dropped 57 and 39 percentage points respectively, moving from over - heated to neutral, while long - term Treasury trading proportion rose 18 percentage points, moving from neutral to over - heated [19]. 3.2.2. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure Increases - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 13%, neutral dropped to 25%, and cold rose to 63%. Bond fund profit - taking pressure rose 55 percentage points from cold to over - heated, and the expectation of monetary tightness dropped 16 percentage points from neutral to cold [24]. 3.2.3. Spread Quantiles Drop - The policy spread widened by 2bp to - 2bp, with its quantile dropping 6 percentage points to 76%. The market spread quantile dropped 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. Real Estate Comparison Quantile Drops Significantly - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. Stock - bond and commodity comparison quantiles dropped 3 and 1 percentage points respectively, and the real estate comparison quantile dropped 14 percentage points [33].

Group 1 - The bond market experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, with a notable concentration of investor positions in 1 to 3-year interest-bearing assets as a defensive strategy against net value uncertainty [2][10][11] - In December, the yield on 30-year government bonds reached a high of 2.2925%, reflecting the market's fragile sentiment and the impact of year-end assessments [10][11] - The introduction of new regulations regarding redemption fees for bond funds provided some relief to the anxious bond market, potentially reshaping investment strategies going into 2026 [10][11] Group 2 - The regulatory environment has shifted positively, with the new redemption fee rules easing previous constraints, which may lead to a recovery in the bond market [3][27] - The pricing of 5-year bank subordinated bonds is expected to see a valuation recovery of 5 to 10 basis points, with new pricing logic anticipated to return to the range of 2.1% to 2.15% [4][43] - The high yields on long-term credit bonds are influenced not only by the new redemption regulations but also by inherent liquidity issues, which may limit trading activity [3][38] Group 3 - The market has shifted focus from seeking excess returns to strictly controlling drawdowns, as evidenced by the significant trading volume in medium-term municipal bonds [11][22] - Fund managers have been the primary drivers of mid-term bond allocations, with net purchases reaching a weekly high of 21.2 billion, surpassing the average weekly volume from October to year-end [11][20] - The strategy of investing in 3-year AA+ municipal bonds has proven to be the most effective in December, highlighting the trend towards medium-term securities [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected dynamic PE ratios of 30x, 23x, and 20x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Core Insights - The company announced a stock option incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant a total of 15.4 million stock options, accounting for 0.92% of the total share capital prior to the announcement [2] - The performance targets for the stock option plan are set with a base of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, aiming for a CAGR of at least 107%, 73%, and 62.5% for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [3] - The company is positioned as a "Grand Slam" player in the specialty glass fiber market, with accelerated capacity expansion and market share growth expected from the successful implementation of a private placement to fund specialty glass fiber projects [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.002 billion, 2.608 billion, and 3.060 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a significant recovery from a low of 892 million in 2024 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from 23.984 billion RMB in 2024 to 30.073 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 25.39% [9] - The company anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of 10.19%, 12.30%, and 13.28% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating improving profitability [9]

Group 1: U.S. Involvement in Venezuela - Trump has shown a Monroe Doctrine inclination, favoring ideologically aligned regimes in the Western Hemisphere, particularly against Maduro's government[4] - The best-case scenario for Trump is to establish a pro-U.S. regime in Venezuela, which could help lower oil prices ahead of elections[5] - U.S. intervention is likely to focus on controlling "exportable crude oil" through regulatory and transactional structures rather than direct asset takeover[16] Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production Potential - Venezuela holds approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, accounting for about 17% of the global total, but actual production has plummeted to around 1 million barrels per day, only about 1% of global output[6] - The country’s oil production capabilities are severely hampered by aging infrastructure and international sanctions, requiring an estimated $8 billion investment to restore production to 1990s levels[7] - Venezuela's refining capacity is significantly underutilized, with actual throughput around 300,000 barrels per day, just 20% of its nominal capacity of 1.46 million barrels per day[8] Group 3: Impact on Global Oil Prices - If the U.S. promotes a "U.S. company-controlled" increase in Venezuelan production, short-term oil prices may be supported by "risk premiums" and OPEC+ supply control rather than falling due to production increases[18] - OPEC+ has maintained a production cut of approximately 3.24 million barrels per day, indicating a clear intent to defend prices[18] - Even with potential production recovery in Venezuela, OPEC+ has room to adjust output to mitigate price declines, suggesting a gradual rather than rapid recovery in oil supply[18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The duration of general credit bonds has significantly shortened. As of December 31, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.58 years and 2.19 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.01 years, 3.31 years, and 1.73 years respectively. The duration of other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds, also shortened compared to the previous week [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has decreased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has declined. This week, it decreased compared to last week and is currently at the 40.9% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - As of December 31, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.58 years and 2.19 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds had weighted average trading terms of 4.01 years, 3.31 years, and 1.73 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, while secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.41 years, 1.43 years, 3.06 years, and 1.35 years respectively, and all shortened compared to the previous week. Securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at low historical percentiles [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index decreased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it declined this week compared to last week and is at the 40.9% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading term of urban investment bonds hovered around 1.65 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial - level urban investment bonds extended to 4.88 years, while the trading duration of Hebei provincial - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.61 years. The historical percentiles of the durations of Fujian district - level and Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, and the duration of Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds was approaching its highest since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened compared to the previous week, generally around 1.84 years. The trading duration of the basic chemical industry extended to 2.33 years, while that of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.80 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a low historical percentile, and that of the pharmaceutical and biological industry was at a high historical percentile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.73 years, at the 13.6% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.01 years, at the 81.1% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.31 years, at the 45.3% historical percentile, lower than the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 54.5%, 4%, 14%, and 79.9% historical percentiles respectively, and their durations all shortened compared to the previous week [3][26].

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have generally declined this week, with the interest rate style portfolio showing controlled drawdowns in certain strategies, while some credit style strategies still achieved positive returns [3][16][20] - The average yield of the credit style portfolio has decreased by 6.8 basis points to -0.04%, with the short-end strategies experiencing the smallest drawdown [3][20] - The long-end strategies in the credit style portfolio have seen a significant drop in average returns, with a decrease of 12.5 basis points to -0.17% [3][20] Group 2 - The sources of returns for the portfolio are primarily from coupon recovery, with significant attention on the configuration and trading space at the beginning of the year [4][28] - The annualized coupon space for certain strategies is notably larger compared to the lows of 2025, with expectations for continued recovery in the mid to long-end strategies [4][28] - The annualized coupon yield for perpetual bonds and the city investment hybrid strategies is around 2.18%-2.19%, indicating potential configuration value [4][28] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, the excess returns of the city investment hybrid strategy have shown volatility, with some strategies achieving positive excess returns while others remain in negative territory [5][34] - The short-end strategies have underperformed against benchmarks, while mid to long-end strategies have shown signs of recovery, particularly the secondary bond bullet and perpetual bond strategies [5][37] - The overall excess returns in the long-end strategies have varied significantly among different bond types, with some strategies showing recovery while others remain underperforming [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly highlighting the acquisition of Manus by Meta as a significant trend [2]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - E-commerce is facing pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, but the continuation of national subsidies in 2026 is expected to benefit the sector [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new franchise policies from major players like JD and Tuhu, indicating growth potential in the aftermarket [4]. - The Robotaxi segment is gaining traction with Tesla's recruitment for its autonomous ride-hailing project, presenting investment opportunities [4]. - The AI and cloud sectors are expected to thrive, with a focus on companies with strong operational cash flow, such as Google, Microsoft, Tencent, and Alibaba [4]. - The media sector anticipates a strong year in 2026 with several major game releases, particularly during the upcoming holiday season [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index increased by 2.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng index [9]. - Notable stock performances include Tims (+15.07%) and Luckin Coffee (+3.30%), while some brands like Tea Baidao saw declines [9][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index rose by 6.14%, significantly outperforming other indices [20]. - Key stock performances include iQIYI (+6.28%) and Tencent Music (+1.36%) [20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $309.02 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 3.0% and 6.7% respectively [27]. - Notable stock performances include Tiger Brokers (+15.10%) and Futu Holdings (+8.03%) [29]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index saw a slight increase of 0.44%, with mixed performances among automotive service stocks [32]. - Companies like Meidong Auto (+7.76%) performed well, while others like AutoZone saw declines [32]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.46%, with mixed stock performances [36]. - Notable performances include Beike (+2.04%) and Didi Global (+0.91%) [36]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index fell by 1.52%, with significant stock movements among major tech companies [42]. - Baidu saw a notable increase of 20.43%, while companies like Tesla experienced declines [42]. 1.3 Media - The media index increased by 2.1255%, with advertising and marketing sectors performing well [45]. - Key stock performances include NetEase (+7.32%) and Tencent (+3.32%) [45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power equipment sector, highlighting a structural differentiation in the market with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic market for power grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%. The market is segmented into three main areas: internal grid (approximately 823 billion yuan, +9% YoY), external grid (approximately 580 billion yuan, +19% YoY), and overseas markets (approximately 665 billion yuan, +20% YoY) [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transformers, particularly in the context of the North American market, where there is a significant supply-demand mismatch. The expected supply gap for power transformers in the U.S. by 2025 is projected to be 30% [3][25]. - Solid-state transformers (SST) are highlighted as a disruptive technology with a potential commercial breakthrough expected around 2027, driven by their efficiency and adaptability to high-density computing environments [4][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Framework - The power equipment sector is categorized into six main business types, including smart systems, high-voltage equipment, medium and low-voltage equipment, metering devices, materials, and low-voltage electrical appliances [13][14]. - The report outlines a structural differentiation in the market, with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion as key growth areas [18][23]. Market Demand and Trends - The report forecasts that the internal market (State Grid and Southern Grid) will reach approximately 835 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9% YoY. The demand for high-voltage transformers and related equipment is expected to remain strong due to ongoing infrastructure investments [22][25]. - The external market, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is anticipated to grow significantly, with wind power installations expected to increase by 51% YoY in 2025 [22][26]. Detailed Market Tracking - The report provides a detailed analysis of ten sub-markets, indicating that the main grid and overseas markets are expected to maintain high levels of activity. The State Grid's investment in transmission and transformation equipment is projected to grow by 26% YoY, with significant contributions from leading companies [24][25]. - The report also notes a recovery in the distribution network segment, with price adjustments expected to enhance profitability starting in 2026 [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main investment lines: undervalued brokerages, companies in the biotechnology sector, and diversified financial firms with strong performance growth [2][4]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced a plan to enhance the digital RMB management system, expected to optimize monetary policy transmission and support the internationalization of the RMB, creating opportunities in the payment sector [1][40]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on public fund sales fees, encouraging long-term holding by investors and benefiting the public fund industry [1][41][42]. - The insurance sector is expected to see stable net profits and net assets due to high tax-exempt income and deferred tax liabilities, with a low taxable income forecast for 2024-2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The digital RMB is set to officially launch on January 1, 2026, with expectations to enhance monetary policy efficiency and broaden application scenarios, benefiting related industries [1]. - The new fund sales fee regulations are aimed at reducing costs for investors and promoting a healthier ecosystem for public funds [1][41][42]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued brokerages for potential gains, particularly recommending Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [2]. - Highlighting Sichuan Shuangma's advantages in the technology sector and its investments in gene therapy, with a strong pipeline of projects [2]. - Recommend diversified financial firms like Yixin Group and Far East Horizon for their impressive performance growth [2]. Insurance Sector - The tax base switch is not expected to significantly impact insurance companies' net profits or net assets, with a high proportion of tax-exempt income [3]. - The report anticipates a favorable environment for insurance stocks driven by high demand in the liability sector and a supportive market for asset management [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a recent decline in the A-share market, with the non-bank financial sector underperforming compared to the broader market [10]. - The brokerage and insurance sectors have shown varied performance, with specific recommendations for companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [10][12].

超长债偏弱运行的三重压力 岁末阶段，收益率曲线整体沿陡峭化路径运行，与我们此前提示一致。在长端整体承压的背景下，超长期限调整幅度 更为突出。这反映出超长端的三重压力正在被广泛预期和集中定价： 供给压力不小，而流动性红利近尾声。从发行、存量与成交期限三个维度进行国际比较可见，当前国内政府债融资和 存量期限结构与美国较为相似。而若与德日对比，尤其是在低利率环境与跨周期资金需求的双重推动下，仍不排除有 进一步向长期限结构演变的空间。然而，与融资期限的长期化相比，超长债流动性的提升可能已接近瓶颈。国内超长 债交易活跃度已显著高于海外成熟市场，进一步扩张空间受限。这些潜在变化方向，对超长债利差构成向上压力。 对融资成本的政策导向从"推动下降"转向"低位运行"，从比价角度制约超长端利率下行空间。央行措辞变化反映 出，社会融资成本或已处于政策合意的低位水平。而过去五年间，30 年期国债利率累计下行约 146BP，与企业贷款利 率 147BP 的降幅基本持平。比价维度看，超长端利率脱离比价关系而下行的动力显著降低。 需求格局存在挑战。当前市场对久期边际偏好减弱、负债端对波动容忍度下降，机构对超长债的承接力弱化。对 30- 1 ...