Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN010B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the bonds with rising net prices, "Jingzi K10" led in terms of valuation price deviation; among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ping An Bank Perpetual Bond 01BC" showed a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Science and Technology Innovation Bond 01" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation; among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 5%, transportation bonds were at the forefront [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields are mainly distributed in the [-5,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds are mainly between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discount - traded varieties within 0.5 years; the trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are mainly between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discount - traded varieties between 1 and 3 years. By industry, the bonds in the light manufacturing industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - The report tracked the trading of significantly discounted bonds, listing the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous - day valuation yield, implied rating, subject rating, industry, and trading volume of various bonds such as "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN010B" [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - It tracked the trading of bonds with significant positive deviations in net prices. Bonds like "Jingzi K10" had a valuation price deviation of 0.21%, and the report also provided details on other bonds including remaining term, valuation price deviation, etc. [5]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ping An Bank Perpetual Bond 01BC" and others were listed, with a valuation price deviation of about 0.03% for many of them [6]. 3.3 Commercial Financial Bond Trading Tracking - The trading of commercial financial bonds was tracked, such as "25 Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Science and Technology Innovation Bond 01", with information on remaining term, valuation price deviation, etc. provided [9]. 3.4 Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds like "24 Ruimao 02" with a trading yield higher than 5% were tracked, and the report presented details such as remaining term, valuation price deviation, and trading volume [10]. 3.5 Distribution of Credit Bond Trading Valuation Deviations on the Day - The distribution of changes in credit bond valuation yields on the day was mainly in the [-10,-5), [-5,0), (0,5], (5,10] intervals, along with the number of bonds and trading volume [13]. 3.6 Distribution of Trading Terms of Non - Financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds (including urban investment and industrial bonds) on the day were mainly between 2 and 3 years, with corresponding trading volumes [15]. 3.7 Distribution of Trading Terms of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds on the day were mainly between 4 and 5 years, with relevant trading volume data [18]. 3.8 Discounted Trading Ratio and Trading Volume of Non - Financial Credit Bonds by Industry - The average valuation price deviation and trading volume of non - financial credit bonds in various industries were presented, with the light manufacturing industry having the largest average valuation price deviation [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy shows mixed signals with some production indicators weakening while demand in certain areas improves, and inflation is affected by factors such as rising agricultural product prices and rebounding oil prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth 3.1.1 Production - Power plant daily consumption is weaker than the same period in previous years. On December 23, the average daily consumption of 6 large power - generation groups was 80.0 tons, up 0.1% from December 16. On December 19, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 201.2 tons, down 0.3% from December 12 [5][12] - Blast furnace operating rates mainly declined. On December 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from December 12; the capacity utilization rate was 84.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from December 12. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from December 12 [5][17] - Tire operating rates fluctuated slightly. On December 18, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 64.1%, up 0.1 percentage point from December 11; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 71.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from December 11 [5][20] 3.1.2 Demand - New home sales in 30 cities improved month - on - month. From December 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 32.3 million square meters, up 37.6% from the same period in November, but down compared to previous years [5][27] - The retail growth of the auto market was weak. In December, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 23% year - on - year [5][31] - Steel prices fluctuated strongly. On December 23, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil prices changed by +1.5%, +1.1%, - 0.6%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to December 16 [5][36] - Cement prices rebounded locally. On December 23, the national cement price index rose 0.3% compared to December 16, but prices in East China and the Yangtze River region declined [5][37] - Glass prices fluctuated weakly. On December 23, the active glass futures contract price was 1,027 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from December 16 [5][43] - Container shipping freight rate indices rose for two consecutive weeks. On December 19, the CCFI index rose 0.6% and the SCFI index rose 3.1% compared to December 12 [5][46] 3.2 Inflation 3.2.1 CPI - Pork prices stopped falling and rebounded. On December 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.5 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from December 16 [5][51] - The agricultural product price index was significantly higher than in recent years. On December 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index fell 0.2% compared to December 16. By variety, fruits (+4.0%) > chicken (+1.5%) > pork (+0.7%) > mutton (+0.7%) > eggs (+0.4%) > beef (+0.03%) > vegetables (- 1.7%) [5][55] 3.2.2 PPI - Oil prices rebounded. On December 23, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices were 63.2 and 58.4 dollars/barrel, up 4.3% and 5.6% respectively from December 16 [5][58] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On December 23, LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices rose 3.5% and 2.6% respectively compared to December 16 [63] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in December, but the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged [66]

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%[2] - Year-on-year growth increased to 2.3%, but remains below last year's 2.8%[2] - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth were personal consumption (2.4 percentage points) and net exports (1.6 percentage points)[2] Employment and Consumption - There is a divergence in economic performance, characterized as "growth in summer" and "employment in winter"[2] - Non-cyclical sectors showed strong growth, while cyclical sectors experienced increased weakness[10] - Private consumption remains strong overall, but there is a notable disparity within consumption categories, with disposable income growth slowing[19] Investment Trends - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model[10] - Despite strong AI investment, traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak, questioning the effectiveness of interest rate cuts[15] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump may lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[32] - Global economic impacts from tariffs could lead to unexpected synchronized easing in 2026, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[32] - The potential for significant manufacturing cost reductions due to technological breakthroughs could increase credit demand[32]

二级交易活跃度与定价 存量科创债评级呈现高度集中特征，AA+及以上隐含评级债券数量占比为 72.8%，AA 级中等资质个券占比也达到 23%， 反映部分中小科创主体融资需求；行业分布则以传统行业为主导，建筑装饰、公用事业、综合行业债券数量占比 37.6%， 纺织服饰、医药生物、通信行业较该行业全部信用债估值存在 12bp 以上的超额利差。 流动性方面，受央行公开市场操作稳定资金面预期、科创债 ETF 资金净流入与交易活跃驱动，本周科创债周度换手率 回升至 1.72%，成交笔数也增长至 989 笔，其中 3 年内品种成交笔数已上升至年内 90%以上的高位。 收益率视角上，本周交易所中短久期科创债价格修复，1-3 年品种成交收益均值下行 4bp 至 1.96%。短期内，流动性 宽松预期、政策红利持续释放、ETF 配置资金流入将是科创债收益率下行的直接推手。不过因品种一级供给节奏较快， 市场仍需时间消化，科创债收益率恐难以大幅下行，预计将维持震荡格局。 一级发行规模与结构 科创新债认购情绪企稳。本周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19，下同）科创债一级市场供给规模达 546.1 亿元，延续了前 一周的放量趋 ...

- The report discusses a rotation model for micro-cap stocks, which uses the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the "Mao Index" as a key indicator. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, it suggests investing in micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it suggests investing in the Mao Index. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope of both indices is used to determine the direction of rotation, favoring the index with a positive slope when the directions differ [19][24][26] - A timing indicator is constructed based on the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and the volatility congestion rate of micro-cap stocks (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator reaches its threshold, a closing signal is triggered to manage risk [19][24][20] - The report evaluates eight major stock selection factors across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000). Among these, the value factor (20.46%), volatility factor (16.11%), and technical factor (13.68%) show strong IC mean performance, while the growth factor (-5.65%) and consensus expectation factor (-2.16%) perform relatively weakly [46][47][48] - The report highlights that defensive value factors and volume-price factors (volatility and technical) performed strongly in the past week, reflecting a shift in market style towards low-valuation defensive strategies amid a volatile environment. Growth and consensus expectation factors, which previously performed well, experienced a pullback [46][47][48] - For convertible bonds, the report constructs quantitative bond-picking factors, including equity-related factors and valuation factors such as parity and floor premium rates. Among these, equity consensus expectation, equity value, and convertible bond valuation factors achieved higher IC mean values in the past week [54][55][56]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - From 2025/12/12 - 2025/12/19, the CSI 300 rose 0.11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield declined 2.25bp [1] 2. Overall Position Changes of Fixed - Income + Funds - This week, the estimated positions of fixed - income + funds showed a 0.33% reduction in the bond segment, a 0.72% increase in the stock segment, and a 0.18% increase in the convertible bond segment [1] 3. Position Change Concentration - For the bond segment, the largest number of funds (184, 36.44% of the total) had position changes concentrated in the [0%, 1%) range [4] - For the stock segment, 150 funds (29.70% of the total) had position changes in the [0%, 1%) range [4] - For the convertible bond segment, 260 funds (51.49% of the total) had position changes in the [0%, 1%) range [4] 4. Position Changes by Fund Size - **Bond Segment**: All funds of various sizes slightly reduced their bond positions this week [7] - **Stock Segment**: Funds with sizes of 10 - 20 billion, 2 - 10 billion, 20 - 30 billion, below 2 billion, and above 50 billion slightly increased their stock positions, while others slightly decreased [7] - **Convertible Bond Segment**: Funds with sizes of 10 - 20 billion, 2 - 10 billion, 20 - 30 billion, below 2 billion, 30 - 50 billion, and above 50 billion slightly increased their convertible bond positions, while others slightly decreased [7] 5. Stock Position Details - **All - Market Fixed - Income + Funds**: The stock position this week was 16.97%, with the top three positions in technology, new energy, and resources. The total increase in stock positions across all sectors was 0.63% [10][11] - **Top Fixed - Income + Funds**: The stock position this week was 16.32%, with the top three positions in technology, new energy, and resources. The total increase in stock positions across all sectors was 0.90% [10][11] - **Sector - Specific Changes**: - New energy: All - market increased by 0.11%, top funds by 0.19% [11] - Manufacturing: All - market increased by 0.11%, top funds by 0.16% [11] - Optional consumption: All - market increased by 0.02%, top funds by 0.01% [11] - Pharmaceuticals: All - market increased by 0.07%, top funds by 0.09% [11] - Resources: All - market unchanged, top funds decreased by 0.02% [11] - Industry: All - market increased by 0.04%, top funds by 0.01% [11] - Agriculture: All - market increased by 0.05%, top funds unchanged [11] - Necessary consumption: All - market increased by 0.04%, top funds by 0.09% [11] - Big finance: All - market increased by 0.05%, top funds by 0.08% [11] - Technology: All - market increased by 0.10%, top funds by 0.25% [11] - Cycle: All - market increased by 0.02%, top funds by 0.05% [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the energy storage industry, highlighting a new growth cycle driven by multiple factors [2]. Core Insights - The global energy storage industry is expected to see significant growth, with new installations projected to reach 438 GWh by 2026, representing a 62% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by the transition from a single focus on renewable energy consumption to a triad of drivers: AI computing infrastructure, energy transition needs, and grid congestion [2]. - In China, new installations are expected to reach 250 GWh in 2026, a 67% increase year-on-year, as policies shift from "strong allocation" to "profitability" [2]. - The U.S. is projected to see 70 GWh of new installations in 2026, a 35% increase year-on-year, with AI driving rigid growth [2]. - Europe is expected to install 51 GWh in 2026, a 55% increase year-on-year, with long-term contracts locking in demand [2]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to see a 91% year-on-year increase in installations, reaching 67 GWh by 2026, driven by economic benefits from "diesel replacement" [3]. Summary by Sections Macro Section: Restructuring Demand and Barriers - The mismatch between the rapid expansion of AI computing and the slow growth of power grids is creating significant bottlenecks in the U.S. and Europe, with average waiting times for grid connections extending to 3-10 years [13]. - Energy storage is becoming a strategic infrastructure to bypass grid bottlenecks, allowing data centers to meet load reduction requirements and avoid lengthy approval processes for grid expansion [13][17]. Demand Section: New Growth Cycle Driven by AI and Energy Transition - The report emphasizes that the energy storage market is transitioning from a focus on backup power to active supply, with storage systems now capable of peak shaving and grid support [17]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surge due to the increasing need for AI data centers and the ongoing energy transition [2][3]. Supply Section: Navigating Through Oversupply Cycles - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover from a period of oversupply, with a significant rebound anticipated in 2026 as demand driven by AI and energy storage continues to grow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on midstream materials that are experiencing supply-demand reversals, recommending investments in critical segments such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and carbonates [4]. New Technology: Advancements in Solid-State Batteries - The report forecasts that solid-state batteries will begin small-scale production in 2026, with significant advancements in materials and manufacturing processes expected [4]. - The commercialization of solid-liquid batteries is anticipated to occur in 2026, with applications across various sectors including robotics and consumer electronics [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in critical supply chain segments that are expected to see price increases, as well as companies with localized manufacturing capabilities that can navigate trade barriers effectively [4]. - Companies providing integrated energy solutions for data centers and those involved in solid-state battery technology are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for specific companies within the machinery sector, particularly in tractor exports and gas turbine orders [5][11]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index decreased by 1.56% in the last week, ranking 29th among 31 primary industry categories, while it has increased by 33.82% year-to-date, ranking 6th [13][16]. - The report highlights strong growth in tractor exports, particularly for medium and large tractors, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6% in November 2025, and anticipates continued growth in 2026 [5]. - Siemens Energy is establishing a gas turbine assembly base in Hainan, which is expected to enhance collaboration with domestic companies like Yingliu, particularly in turbine blade orders [5][24]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with significant increases in sales and operating rates, indicating a positive outlook driven by infrastructure projects [5][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 1.56% over the last week but has risen by 33.82% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery remains under pressure, with a PMI of 49.2% in November, while engineering machinery shows accelerated growth with excavator sales up by 7.8% year-on-year [25][33]. - The railway equipment sector is stable, with fixed asset investments maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [38]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with new ship price indices showing a decline [40]. Industry Dynamics - The gas turbine market is robust, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [48]. - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing, supported by high demand in the Middle East [43]. - Industrial gas demand is expected to rise as raw material prices decrease and downstream operating rates improve [46].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].