Investment Rating - The transportation sector has shown a positive trend with a 3.2% increase in the transportation index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% during the week of July 19-25, 2025 [1][12]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's fund holdings increased to 32.5 billion yuan, a 17.0% rise compared to the previous quarter, with a market share of 1.95% [2]. - The express delivery segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.8% in June, with SF Express leading the growth [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume in June compared to the previous year [4]. - The shipping sector is stabilizing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 10.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][34]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.2%, with the airport sector showing the highest increase of 5.6% [1][12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container freight index (CCFI) was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) increased by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in domestic shipping [28]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights reached 16,945, a 3.68% increase year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.51% [4]. - The introduction of a new ticket purchasing feature on the airline service platform is expected to enhance customer experience [4]. Rail and Road - National highway freight traffic increased by 0.67% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [6][76]. - The railway passenger volume in June was 373 million, a 3.61% increase year-on-year [73]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June, with a notable increase in the market share of SF Express [2][44].

基本内容 沿着阻力最小的方向，既符合物理规律，也符合人性，但阻力最小的方向不一定通往最优的结果。要实现最优结果， 就要突破很多阻力，这是改革的应有之义。以改革的方式综合整治内卷，需要标本兼治，这个过程涉及中央部委、地 方政府和司法体系的协同配合，针对的是出现了无序价格战和不正当竞争，威胁到行业高质量发展，且与地方政府行 为密切相关的行业，简单说，就是"新三样"和电商平台。"反内卷"并不简单等同于"涨价去产能"，明确改革起步 的重点方向后，就是要高度重视改革的潜在效果。第一，反内卷改革将成为相关行业提升产品质量、优秀企业提升利 润率和投资回报的重要催化剂。第二，反内卷改革不会是"一阵风"，而是有望写入即将出炉的"十五五"规划，这 也意味着后续大概率还会有更多政策落地。第三，如果到明后年，国内需求侧如房地产业进入新的长期稳态，改革对 相关行业和宏观经济会起到更明显的效果。 风险提示 1）对政策精神的学习和贯彻落实不到位，导致出现运动式去产能；2）外部风险可能有所波动，影响国内政策重心 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 一、阻力最小的方向 物理学里有一个"最小阻力定律"，指材料在塑性形变 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Yonghui Supermarket announced a detailed private brand plan, aiming to increase the number of private brand products from 60 to 500 and penetration rate from 5% to 40% by 2029 [11][12] - The offline retail sector is seeing steady progress in store renovations, with 143 out of 523 stores (27.34%) already renovated as of July 25 [11] - Online retail competition remains intense, with expectations of subsidy wars continuing until the end of summer, potentially leading to a recovery in order sizes post-subsidy [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Company Dynamics - Yonghui's private brand plan includes developing 2 products with over 1 billion in sales by 2026 and 15 such products by 2029 [11] - The online retail sector is expected to see a shift in competition dynamics, with Meituan likely regaining market share after the subsidy wars [11][18] 2. Industry Data Tracking - In the second week of July, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com decreased by 14.24% year-on-year [20] - The top five categories in terms of growth were toys, consumer electronics, home appliances, maternal and infant products, and pet supplies [20] 3. Market Review - From July 21 to July 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the retail sector (Shenwan) increased by 2.65%, ranking third among nine major consumption sectors [3][30] - Notable stock performers included Dalian Friendship and Lion Head Shares, with significant gains [3][29] 4. Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket is recommended for its transformation towards a selective retail model, which is expected to have long-term growth potential in the post-consumption era [32] - Meituan is viewed positively for its established barriers in user perception, rider management, and merchant relationships, despite competitive pressures from JD.com [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mechanical equipment sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Yingliu Co., Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [11]. Core Insights - GEV's new gas turbine orders increased by 35.56% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine industry [25]. - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus Gen3, is set to launch a prototype within three months, with production expected to start in early 2026, which is anticipated to positively impact the robotics industry [25]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with an estimated total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to accelerate the recovery of domestic engineering machinery sales [25]. - The "Industrial Mother Machine+" initiative is driving domestic substitution and industrial upgrades, particularly in sectors like aerospace and new energy vehicles [25]. - The report highlights a robust demand for engineering machinery, with excavator sales showing resilience and growth in both domestic and international markets [30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index rose by 2.56% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.69% [14][15]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery sector remains under pressure, while engineering machinery shows a steady upward trend with excavator sales increasing by 13.3% year-on-year in June 2025 [23][30]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with GEV's new orders indicating a significant recovery [50]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a stable growth in railway equipment investments, maintaining around 6% growth in 2025 [39]. - The shipbuilding sector is showing signs of marginal improvement after a period of decline, with new ship price indices stabilizing [41]. - Oil service equipment is showing signs of bottoming out, with global rig counts increasing, indicating a recovery in oil service demand [42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential rebound in the market due to upcoming policy support and low valuations in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +4.1%, ranking 7th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +4.2%, ranking 6th [2][16]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in 300 cities was reported at 15%, with a total land area sold of 667 million square meters, reflecting a 10% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [2][27]. - The newly implemented Housing Rental Regulations aim to enhance rental rights and improve the rental market by regulating rental activities and promoting equal rights for renters [5][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 47 cities sold a total of 291 million square meters of commercial housing, with a week-on-week increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][33]. - In June, new home prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a slight expansion in the decline [3][33]. Land Transactions - The report notes that the recent land auction in Shanghai resulted in the highest floor price for residential land in the country, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter for the Xujiahui plot [4][13]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts include China Overseas, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with respective acquisition amounts of 54.2 billion, 52.8 billion, 41.4 billion, 35.6 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan [27][30]. Rental Market Regulations - The newly established Housing Rental Regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, focusing on standardizing rental activities and enhancing the rights of renters [5][15]. - The regulations support the revitalization of old factories and commercial properties for rental purposes and establish a monitoring mechanism for rental prices [5][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from potential policy support, particularly developers with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities [6]. - Recommended companies include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development, which are expected to perform well due to their ongoing land acquisition capabilities [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 20th to July 26th, among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators in Guojin Securities' fixed - income fundamental monitoring system, the number of "bullish" and "bearish" indicators is 27 and 22 respectively. "Bullish" factors are mainly reflected in the start - up rates of most industries, real estate transaction areas, consumption, travel, exports, and most agricultural product prices, while "bearish" factors are mainly shown in coal consumption, crude steel production, real estate prices, industrial product inventory and demand, etc. [2][17] - The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal. [3][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Thermometer - **Overview**: Among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators, 27 are "bullish" and 22 are "bearish" for the bond market. [2][17] - **High - frequency Indicator Tracking**: - **Absolute Value Tracking**: Many indicators are monitored, such as economic growth (e.g., daily coal consumption and crude steel production), industrial production (e.g., start - up rates of various industries), real estate (e.g., housing and land transaction areas), infrastructure, inventory, consumption, travel, and inflation. The qualitative judgment for each indicator is provided, with some being "bullish" and some "bearish". [14] - **Monthly Year - on - Year Tracking**: Similar to the absolute value tracking, various economic aspects are covered, and the year - on - year changes and qualitative judgments for each indicator are presented. [16] 3.2 Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators - **Overview**: The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", with a proportion of 6/10. The US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal compared with last week. [3][19] - **Specific Indicators**: - **Enterprise Medium - and Long - Term Loan Balance Growth Rate**: 8.3%, lower than the previous value of 8.4%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Building Materials Composite Index**: 113.9, higher than the previous value of 111.3, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **BCI: Enterprise Recruitment Prospective Index**: 49.1%, lower than the previous value of 50.5%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Internet Search Index Year - on - Year (6MMA)**: 105.2%, lower than the previous value of 105.7%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **PMI New Export Orders Trend Value**: - 0.25%, lower than the previous value of - 0.24%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **PMI Supply - Demand Balance Trend Value**: 0.17%, higher than the previous value of 0.16%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Durable Goods Price**: 0.943, lower than the previous value of 0.944, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Bill Financing**: 14.7 trillion, lower than the previous value of 15.1 trillion, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **US Dollar Index**: 97.5, lower than the previous value of 98.4, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Copper - Gold Ratio**: 17.0, higher than the previous value of 16.6, "bearish". [3][18][19]

摘要 折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"20 淮南建发 MTN003"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "23 黄石城发 MTN005"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"19 昆租 02"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 浦发银行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 20 淮南建发 MTN003 | 0.28 | -0.59 | 100.64 | 8.18 | 1.73 ...

Group 1: Secondary Market Price and Volume Performance - The report presents detailed data on various publicly - offered infrastructure REITs, including their fund codes, fund names, industry types, listing dates, issue prices, returns since listing, weekly returns, turnover rates, and trading volumes [11]. - For example, the Boshi Industrial Park REIT (180101.SZ) has an issue price of 2.31 yuan, a return of 14.72% since listing, and a weekly return of - 1.40% [11]. Group 2: Secondary Market Valuation - No specific content in the provided text directly related to secondary - market valuation, so this part is skipped. Group 3: Market Correlation Statistics - The report shows the correlation coefficients between different types of REITs and various asset classes such as stocks, convertible bonds, pure bonds, and commodities [21]. - For instance, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.21, while for energy - related REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index, it is 0.04 [21]. Group 4: Primary Market Tracking - Multiple REIT projects are in different stages of the primary market, including "already passed", "already feedback", "already accepted", and "already declared" [24]. - Projects like the Bank of China Sino - Sinotrans Warehouse Logistics REIT have passed the review, with a project valuation of 11.56 billion yuan, and the underlying assets include multiple logistics projects [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued decline in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a historically low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted towards sectors such as civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemicals, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2][3]. - The polyurethane and tire sectors have seen continuous reductions in holdings, particularly for Wanhua Chemical, due to declining core product prices and a drop in profitability [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong interest in new materials, particularly in the fiberglass sector, driven by high demand in AI applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation in the Chemical Industry - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trend since Q2 2022, with a significant drop from 8.5% in Q3 2021 to 4% in Q2 2025 [1][11]. Individual Stock Changes - Key stocks that received increased allocations include China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while significant reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [2][16]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the chemical sector saw a decrease in concentration, with the top 15 companies holding a combined market value of 33.2 billion yuan, down 1.5 percentage points [14][15]. Industry Trends - The civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemical sectors are gaining attention, with the civil explosives sector benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and increased demand in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is supported by significant price increases in contracts signed in mid-June, while fluorochemicals are experiencing price rises due to quota implementations [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with fundamental support, such as potassium fertilizers and fluorochemicals, while also highlighting the importance of domestic demand in the civil explosives sector amid global trade uncertainties [4][5]. - New materials, particularly those related to AI applications, are recommended for investment consideration, alongside traditional cyclical sectors showing positive supply-side changes [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among bonds with discounted transactions, "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among bonds with rising net - price transactions, "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among secondary and perpetual bonds with rising net - price transactions, "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among commercial financial bonds with rising net - price transactions, "22 Industrial Bank 04" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation. Among individual bonds with a transaction yield higher than 6%, real - estate bonds ranked high. Credit bond valuation yield changes were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval. Non - financial credit bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 - year - term variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions; secondary and perpetual bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years. By industry, bonds in the communication industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had discounted transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "20 Huainan Jianfa MTN003" had a remaining term of 0.28 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.59%, and a transaction scale of 8,053 yuan [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net - Price Transactions - Bonds like "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" had rising net - price transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "25 Changde Jingjian MTN002" had a remaining term of 4.96 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.16%, and a transaction scale of 5,000 yuan [5]. 3.3 Tracking of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Secondary and perpetual bonds such as "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" were tracked. "20 CITIC Bank Secondary" had a remaining term of 0.06 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 35,046 yuan [6]. 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Commercial financial bonds like "22 Industrial Bank 04" were tracked. "22 Industrial Bank 04" had a remaining term of 0.03 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.00%, and a transaction scale of 16,004 yuan [7]. 3.5 Tracking of Individual Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 6% - Real - estate bonds such as "23 Vanke MTN002" had a transaction yield higher than 6%. "23 Vanke MTN002" had a remaining term of 0.80 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.07%, and a transaction scale of 7,781 yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - Credit bond valuation yield changes were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval [2][10]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - Financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - Non - financial credit bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 3 - 4 - year - term variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions [2][12]. 3.8 Distribution of Secondary and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - Secondary and perpetual bond transaction terms were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years [2][15]. 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - Financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - Bonds in the communication industry had the largest average valuation price deviation, and different industries had different transaction scales [2][17].