国债期货日报 | 2025-12-24 债市情绪改善，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-24 EG延续累库，供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3623元/吨（较前一交易日变动-112元/吨，幅度-3.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3522元/吨（较前一交易日变动-93元/吨，幅度-2.57%），EG华东现货基差-5元/吨（环比-1元/吨），长丝有减产可能， EG加速下跌。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-98美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-974 元/吨（环比+14元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.7万吨（环比-13.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨， 副港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon market has bottomed out and rebounded, while the sentiment in the polysilicon market has subsided. The industrial silicon spot price is basically stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after production cuts in the southwest, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The polysilicon market has poor supply - demand performance, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure [1][3][4][6] Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated higher. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 22, 2025, was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - The industrial silicon spot price was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, with an expected production of around 114,000 tons in December, a slight decrease from November. The weekly production scheduling of silicone fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week, with a possible reduction of about 5,000 tons in industrial silicon consumption in December. In November 2025, China's exports of primary - form polysiloxanes of silicone were 47,000 tons, a 15.82% increase from the previous month and a 10.39% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 507,600 tons, a 2.28% increase from the same period last year [2] Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. It is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, and there is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, a - 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 153,313 lots [4] Supply and Inventory - The polysilicon spot price was basically stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a 0.00% change from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a - 7.73% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a - 0.40% change, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67 GW, a - 12.18% change [4] Product Prices - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5] Strategy - The supply - demand performance of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities. After the establishment of platform companies, the intensity of production and sales restrictions needs to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. There is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. PTA and PX 5 - 9 calendar spread is recommended for long position in the 5 - month contract and short position in the 9 - month contract [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load and capital trends [6] - In the medium - long term, as the period of concentrated PTA capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - With the strong rise of PTA, filament factories' losses have intensified. Three mainstream filament manufacturers will implement an additional 10% production cut for POY this Wednesday, and continue the previous 15% production cut for FDY, with supervision and inspection arrangements [2] Market Analysis Cost Side - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Venezuela has become the short - term market focus. However, in Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices. Recently, due to overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year, liquidity may disrupt the phased market [3] PX - The PXN was $352/ton two trading days ago (a month - on - month increase of $17/ton). PX units are operating smoothly. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX operating rates can be effectively maintained even if some refineries' reforming units have operating fluctuations. Recently, the PX calendar spread has strengthened significantly supported by the delivery logic. There will be many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is good. Meanwhile, with the strong polyester operating rate, PXN has support. In terms of blending for gasoline, the gasoline crack spread has not improved significantly, but the US has started to stockpile aromatics. Attention should be paid to capital trends and changes in downstream polyester load [3] TA - The spot basis of the TA主力 contract is -17 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 146 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the processing fee of the主力 contract on the futures market is 305 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). Recently, downstream raw material inventories have dropped to a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories at low prices has increased significantly, driving the spot market basis to gradually strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and India's cancellation of BIS regulations has boosted PTA export demand. Supported by polyester load, the balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is 91.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%). Recently, the weaving load has declined rapidly. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders have been made one after another, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the operating rate will decline more rapidly from late December. Attention should be paid to the placement of subsequent foreign trade orders. In terms of polyester, the polyester load remains strong, the profit pressure of filament is increasing, but the inventory pressure is acceptable. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the load has rebounded. In the short term, the risk of a significant decline in the polyester load is not large, and it is expected to remain around 91%. The decline in the polyester load is expected to occur around January [4] PF - The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan/ton). There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and the inventory is at a low level. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, the load has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly [5] PR - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 9 yuan/ton). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following the increase in raw material prices, and the overall processing range has been compressed to below 500 yuan. In terms of fundamentals, the bottle - chip load remains unchanged, but as the inventory of bottle - chip factories has declined, the load has rebounded. In addition, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant of Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, there is a possibility of an increase in bottle - chip supply. In the short term, the processing range of polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, and the market price will fluctuate with raw materials [5] Strategy Unilateral Strategy - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and there is a risk of price retracement when capital reduces positions. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester load [6] Cross - Variety Strategy - None [7] Calendar Spread Strategy - Go long on the 5 - month contract and short on the 9 - month contract for PTA and PX [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are oscillating at low levels, with declining inventories and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening towards the year - end. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton. In actual operations, it is currently recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On December 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.89 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan to 1,6875 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin lead spot prices and premiums also changed by 50 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells changed by 50 yuan, 25 yuan, and 0 yuan per ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,920 yuan per ton and closed at 16,995 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,086 lots, a decrease of 1,500 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,030 yuan per ton and closed at 17,050 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan from the afternoon close. Near the end of the year, some traders stopped trading for inventory checks after selling out their stocks, and downstream buyers mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts, resulting in overall light market trading [2] - **Inventory**: On December 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, the LME lead inventory was 253,100 tons, a decrease of 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The expected trading range for the main contract is 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton [4] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide straddle [4]

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-24 哈塞特再次放鸽 贵金属价格延续强势 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增速创两年来 最快。消费支出强劲成为增长的最大推手，当季增速大幅加快至3.5%。三季度核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。另外， 美国10月核心资本品订单与出货量双双回升。此外，被视为美联储主席热门人选的哈塞特认为，人工智能繁荣在 推动经济增长的同时压低了通胀，美国在降息节奏上远远落后于全球其他央行。 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,064.56吨，较前一交易日持平。截止到12月22日，白银ETF持仓为16,599吨， 较前一交易日增加533吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 期现价差：2025-12-23，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为-12.18元/克，白银国内溢价为-1275.77元/千克。金银 比价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为61.69，较前一交易日变动-0.09%，外盘金银比价为63.65，较上一交易 日变化0.91%。 基本面： 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-23，沪金主力合约开于999.36元/克，收于1014 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-23，沪铜主力合约开于 94030元/吨，收于 93930元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.41%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 94850元/吨，收于 94890元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.02%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价贴水260至170元/吨，均价贴水215元/吨，较昨日下跌20元。1#电解铜价格 区间为93340-93600元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约窄幅整理于93610-93800元/吨，尾盘小幅收涨。现货市场表现低迷， 整体转为买方主导。早盘平水铜对次月报价贴水220元/吨左右，好铜贴水170元/吨，随后平水铜贴水扩大至260元/ 吨，好铜相对稳定在180元/吨附近。湿法铜因货源偏紧，价格仍居高位。跨月价差维持在C220-C180元/吨之间。预 计买方还价意愿持续偏低，市场交投清淡，现货升水或将继续下行。 重要资讯汇总： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 现货表现持续低迷 短期铜价大幅走强概率或相对较小 宏观与地缘方面，经济数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-24 消费仍有支撑，猪价窄幅震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11415元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+265，较前交易日变动-50；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+445，较前交易日变动+30；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+265，较前交易日变动-70。 据农业农村部监测，12月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.52，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为 133.46，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.53元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；牛肉66.02元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉63.09元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.96元/公斤，比 昨天上升0.2%。 市场分析 生猪现货报价北方地区受降温散户 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-24 糖价止跌反弹，郑棉走势偏强 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14140元/吨，较前一日变动+70元/吨，幅度+0.50%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15067元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，现货基差CF05+927，较前一日变动+11；3128B棉全国均价15213元/吨， 较前一日变动+59元/吨，现货基差CF05+1073，较前一日变动-11。 近期市场资讯，海关统计数据，2025年11月棉制品（包括含棉混纺制品，不仅指纯棉制品，下同）出口量64.64万 吨，同比增加9.84%，环比增加6.32%；出口金额52.74亿美元，同比减少10.67%，环比增加12.74%；出口单价为8.16 美元/千克，同比下跌18.64%，环比上涨6.11%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a rebound due to the continuous stimulation of events in Indonesia. For nickel, the short - term is in a strong atmosphere, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains. For stainless steel, the short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and the medium - to - long - term needs to focus on the resolution of supply - demand contradictions [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a change of 3.92% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the holding volume was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. The price showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, and strong upward movement, driven by the fermentation of news of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore quota, combined with the drive of the external market and the entry of long - position funds. Attention should be paid to the details of Indonesia's quota policy implementation and the progress of the revision of the 2026 mineral benchmark price calculation formula [1] - **Nickel Ore**: According to Mysteel, recent new tender transactions in the nickel ore market have landed, and the overall nickel ore price has remained stable. The 1.3% nickel ore in southern China was transacted at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender from the northern Benguet mine landed at FOB $33.5. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream iron plants are still in a profit - loss state, and their mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases may slow down. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December fell by $0.11 - 0.18/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 128,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was still cold, and downstream buyers were cautious. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 6,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,922 (+1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 (-162) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, affected by news, the fundamentals show high inventory and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. Be vigilant against callbacks caused by rapid short - term price increases. The strategy for the single - side operation is to sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,840 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the holding volume was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of "passively following the rise, increasing volume and decreasing positions", driven by the strong rise of Shanghai nickel and breaking through important resistance levels technically [3] - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,975 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 100 to 350 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged. The short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the resolution of supply - demand contradictions. Be cautious about chasing highs. The single - side operation strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]