Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The price of titanium dioxide is expected to stabilize and rebound, with ongoing integration of two mines [1] - The closure of overseas titanium dioxide enterprises is likely to improve the global supply-demand balance for titanium dioxide [4] - The company is actively advancing its internationalization process for titanium dioxide and steadily progressing with the integration of two key mining projects [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 26,765 million, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%. Projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29,859 million, 30,935 million, and 31,983 million respectively, with growth rates of 8.5%, 3.6%, and 3.4% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 3,226 million, with a decline of 5.6%. Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,838 million, 3,525 million, and 4,324 million, reflecting growth rates of 30.9%, 24.2%, and 22.7% respectively [7] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.19, 1.48, and 1.81 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4, 13.2, and 10.8 [4][7] Industry Insights - The domestic titanium dioxide industry operating rate is currently at 60.68%, a decrease of 4.21% from the previous period, indicating a decline in overall industry load [5] - Inventory levels among domestic titanium dioxide producers have decreased by 1.72%, suggesting a potential increase in prices due to reduced supply expectations [5]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows strong supply but weak demand, indicating a cautious outlook for various sectors [4][11][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the ChiNext index, driven by policy support and advancements in battery storage technology [17][24][28] Macroeconomic Overview - Construction activity is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in operational rates for key materials like asphalt and cement, although still below historical averages [6] - Industrial production remains robust, with high operational rates in the chemical sector, but automotive sales have seen a decline [6][13] - Demand in the construction sector is weak, with negative year-on-year growth in building materials [6][12] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with significant increases in gold prices, while domestic industrial prices are stable [7] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive, with a notable increase in sales in first-tier cities due to relaxed policies [8] - The second-hand housing market is showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes increasing in major cities [8] Export Trends - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 4% year-on-year in early September, supported by favorable tariff conditions [9] Consumer Market - Retail sales growth has slowed, with a year-on-year decline in August, but the "trade-in" policy is expected to boost sales in the coming months [12][32] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has weakened, particularly in real estate, with a significant year-on-year decline in property development investment [14][34] Automotive Industry - Heavy truck sales have surged, with a year-on-year increase of about 40% in August, indicating a strong recovery in the domestic market [52] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has reached a record high, driven by supportive policies and market demand [53] Battery and Storage Sector - The new energy storage policy aims to significantly increase installed capacity by 2027, indicating strong future growth potential for the battery sector [25][27] - The battery industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with solid-state batteries and lithium batteries gaining traction [27] Machinery Sector - The development of Tesla's robotic technology, particularly the "dexterous hand," is crucial for achieving mass production, highlighting the importance of advanced robotics in manufacturing [58][59]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "百元转股溢价率" (100 Yuan Conversion Premium Rate) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model compares the valuation of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks by calculating a time-series comparable valuation indicator, "百元转股溢价率", and uses rolling historical percentiles to measure the relative allocation value between convertible bonds and stocks [3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Fit the relationship curve between the conversion premium rate and conversion value in the cross-sectional space at each time point 2. Substitute a conversion value of 100 into the fitted formula to obtain the "百元转股溢价率" 3. Formula: $$ y_{i} = \alpha_{0} + \alpha_{1} \cdot \frac{1}{x_{i}} + \epsilon_{i} $$ - \( y_{i} \): Conversion premium rate of the \( i \)-th bond - \( x_{i} \): Conversion value of the \( i \)-th bond - \( \alpha_{0}, \alpha_{1} \): Fitted coefficients - \( \epsilon_{i} \): Residual term [43] - **Model Evaluation**: The rolling three-year and five-year percentiles of this indicator are at 98.00% and 93.70%, respectively, indicating that convertible bonds are relatively expensive compared to stocks [3][13] 2. Model Name: "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM"中位数 (Modified YTM - Credit Bond YTM Median) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the relative allocation value between debt-oriented convertible bonds and credit bonds by stripping the impact of conversion terms on the convertible bond's yield-to-maturity (YTM) [4][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Adjust the YTM of debt-oriented convertible bonds using the formula: $$ \text{Modified YTM} = \text{Convertible Bond YTM} \times (1 - \text{Conversion Probability}) + \text{Expected Conversion Yield} \times \text{Conversion Probability} $$ 2. Calculate the conversion probability using the Black-Scholes (BS) model, incorporating stock price, strike price, stock volatility, remaining term, and discount rate 3. Compute the difference between the modified YTM and the YTM of credit bonds with the same rating and term 4. Take the median of these differences across all debt-oriented convertible bonds: $$ \text{"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM"中位数} = \text{median}\{X_1, X_2, ..., X_n\} $$ - \( X_i \): Difference for the \( i \)-th bond - \( n \): Number of debt-oriented convertible bonds [44] - **Model Evaluation**: The current median value is -2.48%, indicating that the overall cost-effectiveness of debt-oriented convertible bonds is relatively low [4][13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 转股溢价率偏离度 (Conversion Premium Deviation) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of the conversion premium rate from its fitted value, making it comparable across different parities [18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium Rate} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium Rate} $$ - The number of convertible bonds determines the fitting quality [18] 2. Factor Name: 理论价值偏离度 (Theoretical Value Deviation) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the price expectation difference using a Monte Carlo simulation that fully considers the terms of convertible bonds (e.g., conversion, redemption, downward revision, and resale) [18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ - Theoretical value is calculated by simulating 10,000 paths at each time point using the Monte Carlo method, with the same credit term interest rate as the discount rate [18] 3. Factor Name: 转债综合估值因子 (Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines the above two factors to enhance the systematic allocation value of convertible bonds [17][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank(Conversion Premium Deviation)} + \text{Rank(Theoretical Value Deviation)} $$ - Select the top 1/3 of convertible bonds based on this factor to construct low-valuation indices for different styles (e.g., equity-biased, balanced, debt-biased) [18][19] 4. Factor Name: 转债市场情绪捕捉指标 (Convertible Bond Market Sentiment Capture Indicator) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures market sentiment using momentum and volatility deviation of convertible bonds [24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $$ \text{Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank(20-day Momentum)} + \text{Rank(Volatility Deviation)} $$ - Use the median value of these indicators within low-valuation style indices to determine sentiment [25] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. "百元转股溢价率" Model - Rolling three-year percentile: 98.00% - Rolling five-year percentile: 93.70% [3][13] 2. "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Model - Current median value: -2.48% [4][13] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 转债综合估值因子 - Equity-biased convertible bond low-valuation index: - Annualized return: 25.46% - Annualized volatility: 20.55% - Maximum drawdown: -22.94% - IR: 1.24 - Calmar ratio: 1.11 - Monthly win rate: 62.64% [21] - Balanced convertible bond low-valuation index: - Annualized return: 14.85% - Annualized volatility: 11.88% - Maximum drawdown: -15.95% - IR: 1.25 - Calmar ratio: 0.93 - Monthly win rate: 62.64% [21] - Debt-biased convertible bond low-valuation index: - Annualized return: 13.31% - Annualized volatility: 9.50% - Maximum drawdown: -17.78% - IR: 1.40 - Calmar ratio: 0.75 - Monthly win rate: 58.24% [21] 2. 转债市场情绪捕捉指标 - Convertible bond style rotation strategy: - Annualized return: 24.37% - Annualized volatility: 16.71% - Maximum drawdown: -15.89% - IR: 1.46 - Calmar ratio: 1.53 - Monthly win rate: 64.84% [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price is expected to remain stable in the future despite a decline in August due to factors such as heavy weight slaughtering and the spread of African swine fever [3][13] - The average national pig sales price in August 2025 was 13.77 yuan/kg, down 5.35% month-on-month and down 32.35% year-on-year [3][13] - The report highlights that the supply of pigs may gradually tighten in the future due to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs in stock and an increase in the proportion of large pigs being slaughtered [4][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In August 2025, the national pig slaughter volume was 4.3388 million heads, an increase of 4.34% month-on-month and 5.66% year-on-year [3][13] - The report notes that the completion rate of pig slaughtering plans was 100.04% in August, with a planned increase of 3.92% in September compared to actual slaughter in August [3][13] Market Dynamics - The structure of pig slaughtering shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) being slaughtered, while the proportion of large pigs in stock has decreased [4][17] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs in August was 36.80 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.80% month-on-month [5][20] Company Performance - A total of 12 listed pig farming companies reported a combined slaughter of 15.116 million heads in August, an increase of 29.79% year-on-year [6][23] - The average sales price of pigs for major listed companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: - Muyuan Foods: 13.51 yuan/kg, down 5.5% - Wens Foodstuffs: 13.90 yuan/kg, down 6.5% - New Hope Liuhe: 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.9% [7][28]

2025 年 09 月 16 日 创业板进化论 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 创业板发展史—市场对成长的追逐周期 近期市场对于"纺锤策略"的关注度较高，本质焦点在于能够兼具成长弹性与 估值修复潜力的方向。创业板凭借机构化特征明显，直接受益于中风险资产的 收益回归，我们此前于 9 月 3 日发布的《居民参与股市的生态变化：ETF》报告 中提到居民入市资金方式变为 ETF 净流入后可能推动成长风格向龙头集中，扩 散至中大盘成长，创业板当前为行业相对均衡的中大盘成长代表性宽基或相对受 益。以年线为镜，创业板指作为中国新兴产业的潮头，在各时代中成为成长主 线的锚点与起点。纵观整个阶段，可以看到创业板在不同产业周期中表现出较为 清晰的节奏特征：（1）其启动往往依赖于产业趋势与景气赛道的形成；（2）上涨 过程中伴随龙头权重的更迭；（3）在保持估值与基本面增长底线的同时，价格通 常回到增长元年收盘价附近，估值也随之回归对应区间 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the dexterous hand is a crucial component for humanoid robots, directly related to the robot's "brain" and significantly impacting its learning efficiency. The engineering effort for the Optimus dexterous hand accounts for about half of the overall humanoid robot development [13][31] - The Gen3 dexterous hand focuses on key areas such as micro motors, micro ball screws, tendon-driven systems, tactile and visual sensors, and lightweight materials, aiming for enhanced flexibility, load capacity, and perception [16][18] - The dexterous hand is expected to see early commercialization, with a diverse range of domestic companies emerging in the market [31] Summary by Sections 1. Dexterous Hand: Key Direction for Tesla's Robot Iteration - The dexterous hand is essential for precise operations and intelligent interactions in humanoid robots, with its optimization being the final step towards mass production [13][31] - Recent statements from Elon Musk highlight the strategic importance of the hand and forearm in the Gen3 iteration [13] 2. Gen3 Dexterous Hand Core Directions - Key changes in Gen3 include the migration of motors to the forearm, the use of micro ball screws for improved precision, and the adoption of tendon-driven systems for enhanced flexibility [16][18][22] - The integration of tactile and visual sensors is expected to improve dynamic grasping and complex task execution capabilities [24][25] 3. Commercialization Potential - The dexterous hand has a high technical barrier and can be sold independently, indicating unique commercialization potential across various sectors such as industrial, medical, and service applications [31] 4. Industry Landscape - The future of the dexterous hand industry is anticipated to feature a mix of third-party manufacturers, leading companies conducting in-house research, and core component manufacturers extending into full hand production [36][37] - Notable companies in this space include Tesla, Xiaomi, and various emerging third-party firms like Aoyi Technology and Xingdong Era [36][37] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Top Group, Zhenyu Technology, Wuzhou New Spring, Longsheng Technology, and others that are positioned to benefit from the advancements in dexterous hand technology [56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new home prices showing a smaller year-on-year decline and a stable month-on-month performance. The overall trend suggests a gradual recovery in the market [8][14][20] - In August 2025, the new home sales prices in 70 major cities showed a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, which is consistent with the previous month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 3.0%, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points [14][20] - The report highlights that in first-tier cities, new home prices have shown a smaller month-on-month decline, indicating a potential recovery in these markets [14][27] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities experienced month-on-month changes of -0.1%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively, with the overall decline in 70 cities remaining stable at -0.3% [14][20] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities declined by -0.9%, -2.4%, and -3.7% respectively, with the overall decline in 70 cities narrowing to 3.0% [14][20] Second-Hand Home Prices - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of -0.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline compared to the previous month [20][23] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices fell by -5.5%, but this represents a narrowing of the decline by 0.4 percentage points [20][23] Market Performance in Key Cities - In August 2025, Shanghai led the new home price increases with a month-on-month rise of +0.4% and a year-on-year increase of +5.9%, while other major cities showed mixed results [27][28] - The report notes that only Shanghai among first-tier cities experienced an increase in new home prices both month-on-month and year-on-year [27][28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [8][31] - It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms that excel in service quality [8][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - policies continue to exert force, and structural adjustment is advancing steadily. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly. Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise. Bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously. [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Situation - **Production**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The equipment manufacturing industry continued to support industrial production, with its added value increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued, and the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.3% year - on - year. [3] - **Consumption**: In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The third batch of consumer goods "trade - in" policy funds were issued, and the retail sales of related "trade - in" goods continued to grow rapidly. The catering revenue stabilized and rebounded. [4] - **Investment**: From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year. The "two - heavy" construction advanced steadily, with infrastructure investment increasing by 2.0% year - on - year. Real estate investment accelerated to find the bottom, with the real estate development investment decreasing by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area and sales amount of newly built commercial housing both declining. The National Real Estate Climate Index further declined to 93.05. [5] Market - After the economic data was released at 10:00, the bond market continued the repair market under the support of fundamentals, and the long - term yield fluctuated downward. After the futures closed at noon, the long - term yield rose rapidly, possibly due to the intensification of policies to expand service consumption. [6] Bond Market View - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the view is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate will not decline significantly, structural issues such as prices will improve, and bond yields and the stock market will rise continuously. [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The AI model continues to iterate, with edge-side AI becoming a core direction, emphasizing lightweight and efficient models [5][6] - Major global AI models are rapidly iterating through algorithm optimization and data accumulation, enhancing capabilities and optimizing inference effects [5][6] - The collaboration between cloud and edge computing is expected to optimize costs, energy consumption, and performance, shifting the focus of AI processing from the cloud to devices like smartphones and PCs [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The importance of terminal hardware entry is highlighted, with major AI model manufacturers accelerating the integration of hardware to facilitate the rapid deployment of various AI functions and applications [6] - Companies like Google, Alibaba, and Apple are actively developing AI hardware and applications, indicating a strong push towards integrating AI technology into consumer devices [6] Technological Developments - AI terminals are evolving with advancements in hardware, energy efficiency, and interaction forms, focusing on enhancing local computing power and user experience [7] - The integration of NPU in SoC is improving local computing capabilities, while storage technology is advancing towards high bandwidth and low latency [7] Investment Opportunities - Beneficial targets for investment include brands like Transsion Holdings, Xiaomi Group, and various component manufacturers such as Lens Technology and Sunyu Optical Technology [8] - The edge-side AI model market is expected to grow rapidly, with projections indicating that by 2025, the AI smartphone market share in China will reach approximately 30% [6][8]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]