2025 年 08 月 18 日 | 综合 | 3.924 | | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 3.156 | | 电力设备 | 2.848 | | 计算机 | 2.336 | | 建筑材料 | 2.286 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开源晨会 0818 ——晨会纪要 | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | 吴梦迪（分析师） | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 创业板指 | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | 80% | | | | | 观点精粹 | 60% | 40% | | | | | | 总量视角 | 20% | 【宏观经济】强化利率政策执行——宏观经济点评-20250816 | | | | | | 0% | 【宏观经济】内需放缓，个人消费贷贴息或提振社零 | 个百分点——兼评 | 月 | 0.2 | 7 | -20% | | 2024-08 | 2024-12 | 2025-04 | 经济数据和个人消费贷贴息-20250816 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant differentiation within the industry, particularly noting that the card category is under pressure. The performance of various segments, such as the toy industry and light medical beauty, shows strong growth, with companies like Xiaocaiyuan and Xinyang achieving notable revenue and profit increases [4][45] - The report indicates that the social services sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, with specific recommendations for investment in tourism, education, catering, and beauty care sectors [5] Summary by Sections 1. Toy Industry - In July 2025, the online sales of the toy category maintained steady growth, with a total sales amount of 1.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% [16] - The performance of various toy subcategories was strong, with blind boxes and anime peripherals showing significant growth rates of 55% and 70% respectively [17][21] - The number of offline toy stores reached 3,865, with a net increase of 131 stores, and the overall offline store efficiency grew by 8% year-on-year [28] 2. Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan achieved a revenue of 2.714 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.52%, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, up 35.66% [34][35] - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.46%, a historical high, and employee costs as a percentage of revenue decreased to 24.56% [34][40] - The company plans to accelerate its store opening pace, aiming to exceed 800 stores by the end of 2025 and reach a thousand-store scale by 2026 [34][42] 3. Xinyang - Xinyang's light medical beauty chain business saw revenue of 144 million yuan in Q2 2025, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 426% [45] - The company has expanded its operational scale, with 31 stores across 9 cities, and 25 stores generating positive cash flow [45][48] - The upcoming launch of the NAN beauty brand is expected to enhance market presence, with five new products set to be released [56][59] 4. Travel and Consumer Services - The report notes that the social services sector has lagged behind the broader market indices, with specific sectors like education and sports showing stronger performance [5][26] - Domestic air travel has seen a slight increase, while international flights have decreased, indicating a mixed recovery in the travel sector [60][64] - Visitor numbers to Hong Kong from the mainland and globally have shown positive trends, with a week-on-week increase of 15.4% and 16.9% respectively [65][67]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank emphasizes "improving capital use efficiency and preventing capital idling" and changes the description of credit supply from "increasing supply intensity" to "stabilizing support intensity", indicating a decline in the central bank's demand for the total amount of credit expansion and an increasing importance of structural monetary policy tools supporting specific areas [2] - The bond market shows a situation of balanced and loose funding, slightly tightened issuance volume, rising bond yields, and a bear - steep yield curve [3][4][5] - Next week, attention should be paid to the pressure on capital liquidity due to the large - scale issuance of local bonds and the stock - bond seesaw effect under the continuously strong equity market [6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics - On August 15, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2025". The policy tone continues to emphasize the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. New提法 focuses on improving capital use efficiency and changing the credit supply description [2] Market Conditions Primary Supply - From August 11 to August 15, the cumulative issuance of interest - rate bonds was 555.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 252.8 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The issuance scales of national bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 158.3 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 20.5 billion yuan respectively [3] Funding - The funding was balanced and loose. DR007 rose 5.47BP to 1.48% compared to August 8. The central bank had a net investment of 8.51 billion yuan this week [3] Secondary Market - This week, bond yields rose and the bond market declined. As of August 15, the yields of 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y national bonds rose 1.59BP, 5.74BP, and 8.75BP respectively. The yield of the 10 - year national bond active bond 250011 increased by 2.65bp in total from August 11 to August 15 [4] Term Spread - The yield curve showed a bear - steep trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y term spreads increased by 4.15BP and 3.01BP respectively [5] Bond Market Strategy - Next week, pay attention to the pressure on capital liquidity caused by the large - scale issuance of local bonds and the stock - bond seesaw effect under the continuously strong equity market [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategic increase in allocation to non-bank financials under a slow bull market, with insurance capital increasing stakes in insurance companies signaling positive trends [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a critical level, with trading volume continuing to expand, benefiting both brokerage and insurance stocks [3] - The report highlights that the new public fund regulations are expected to have a limited impact on channel fees, and insurance capital's increased stakes in insurance companies indicate confidence in the industry's long-term stability [3] Summary by Sections Brokerage - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 2.49 trillion, up 21% week-on-week, with a cumulative daily average of 1.73 trillion for 2025, representing an 86% year-on-year increase [4] - The upcoming public fund sales fee management regulations are expected to primarily affect sales service fees, with overall impact deemed manageable [4] - Continued inflow from individual investors and long-term funds is expected to enhance market activity, with brokerage performance likely to exceed expectations due to expanding margin trading and strong overseas business [4] Insurance - Insurance capital's increased stakes in H-shares of insurance companies, such as China Ping An and China Life, indicates a positive outlook for the sector, with significant purchases made recently [5] - The report notes that stable long-term interest rates and improved asset yield expectations are likely to enhance the profitability of insurance companies, recommending undervalued stocks like China Taiping and China Ping An [5] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - The recommended stock portfolio includes Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities, China Taiping, China Ping An, Jiangsu Jinzhong, and Hong Kong Exchanges [6] - Beneficiary stocks also include Zhongjin Company, Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and Xinhua Insurance [7]

Group 1 - The polyurethane industry is experiencing a recovery, with recent price increases observed in TDI compared to June 1, 2025, and the beginning of 2025. This is attributed to supply constraints in the overseas market due to an incident at Covestro's TDI facility in Germany and ongoing reductions in overseas TDI production capacity influenced by energy costs and environmental policies [1][10]. - The industry is expected to benefit from the optimization of supply and demand dynamics, leading to an upward trend in the polyurethane industry's prosperity [1][10]. - The report suggests focusing on Yinuowei, a company engaged in the production and sales of polyurethane raw materials and other downstream derivative products [1][15]. Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange saw a weekly increase of 1.65%, with notable performances from the rubber and plastic products industry and non-metallic materials, which rose by 5.27% and 5.26% respectively [2][24]. - Individual stocks that performed well in the chemical new materials sector included Gebijia (+48.22%), Huami New Materials (+28.25%), and Litong Technology (+21.59%) [2][26]. - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1476.33 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.40% [2][19]. Group 3 - Yingtai Bio reported significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 2.966 billion yuan, up from 2.879 billion yuan in the same period last year, and a net profit of 15.29 million yuan compared to a loss of 79.38 million yuan in the previous year [3][52]. - In contrast, Dier Chemical experienced a decline in performance, with revenue of 302.47 million yuan, down 26.59% year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.90 million yuan, down 46.67% [3][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][15] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rising prices of tin and antimony, with a projected increase in revenue and net profit for the coming years [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.787 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year [5][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected figures of 942 million yuan, 1.051 billion yuan, and 1.328 billion yuan respectively [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.95% [5][6] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 228 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.87% [5][6] - The company’s tin ingot production in Q2 2025 was 3,237.96 tons, a year-on-year increase of 90% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [6] Production and Pricing Insights - The average market price for tin ingots in Q2 2025 was approximately 264,000 yuan per ton, with a slight increase compared to the previous periods [6] - The company’s gross profit from the tin ingot segment in Q2 2025 was 186 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 38% [6] - The antimony segment achieved a gross profit of 240 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a gross margin close to 90% [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively promoting a "Three-Year Action Plan" aimed at enhancing production capacity, including a planned investment of 1.09 billion yuan for deep mining projects [7] - The company’s copper mine project has seen an increase in certified scale from 2.376 million tons per year to 3.5 million tons per year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 5.103 billion yuan, 5.435 billion yuan, and 6.506 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 942 million yuan, 1.051 billion yuan, and 1.328 billion yuan [9][12] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.49 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.10 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 17.8, 15.9, and 12.6 [9][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tian Shi Li is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tian Shi Li achieved a revenue of 4.288 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.97% to 775 million yuan. The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 1.183 billion, 1.306 billion, and 1.455 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.79, 0.87, and 0.97 yuan per share [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the gross profit margin was 67.37% (down 0.08 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 18.42% (up 3.48 percentage points) [4] - The sales expense ratio was 35.56% (up 1.95 percentage points), while the management expense ratio was 3.49% (up 0.03 percentage points). The R&D expense ratio was 8.00% (down 0.47 percentage points) [4] - The pharmaceutical industrial segment reported revenue of 3.879 billion yuan (down 0.45%), while the pharmaceutical commercial segment saw revenue of 386 million yuan (down 14.88%) [5] R&D and Innovation Strategy - The company is focusing on an innovation strategy around "disease tree" and "product tree," concentrating on cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, neurological/psychiatric disorders, and digestive diseases. There are 26 projects in the cardiovascular and metabolic field, with 10 being new drugs [6] - In the neurological/psychiatric field, there are 16 projects, including a class 1 innovative drug that has completed phase II clinical research [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.827 billion, 9.381 billion, and 9.977 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit projections of 1.183 billion, 1.306 billion, and 1.455 billion yuan [8][10] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.79, 0.87, and 0.97 yuan per share, with P/E ratios of 20.4, 18.5, and 16.6 respectively [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience high growth driven by the release of potential new vehicles and strategic integration, which will facilitate profit release from the second half of 2025 onwards [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 156.6 billion, 179.7 billion, and 215.7 billion RMB, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.7, 1.9, and 2.2 RMB [6]. - The company has raised its annual sales target for 2025 to 3 million vehicles, supported by the platform-based cost advantages and the launch of several new models [7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 330.103 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 37.4% [7]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 213.3% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 5.9% in 2025 [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.1% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 3.0% to 5.4% over the same period [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown an unexpected turning point in its main business profit margin, with expectations for continuous revenue growth driven by new products, new categories, and new markets [5][6] - The company reported a revenue of 4.48 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 410 million yuan, down 43.2% [5] - The report anticipates an improvement in profitability starting from Q3 2025, with a projected net profit of 2.02 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [5][6] Financial Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 43.9%, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tariffs in North America and a higher proportion of lower-margin products [7] - The company expects to see a significant increase in sales of its sweeping and washing machines, with domestic sales projected to grow approximately 50% and 250% respectively [6] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 2.02 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.92 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 7.79, 11.87, and 15.12 yuan [5][9] Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in market share for its washing machines, with online sales in China reaching a market share of 23.2%, up 20.1 percentage points [6] - In the European market, the company expects a growth of over 50%, with market share in Germany projected to reach 40% [6] - The North American market is anticipated to grow by over 30%, with expectations of a recovery in growth rates as tariff impacts diminish [6]

REITs 行 业 研 究 全国首单产业园持有型 ABS 落地，发行市场保持活 2025 年 08 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 中证REITs全收益 相关研究报告 《中航京能光伏 REIT 扩募获批，仓 储物流REIT单周表现优异—行业周 报》-2025.8.10 《首单央企天然气发电公募 REITs 上市，消费 REIT 单周表现优异—行 业周报》-2025.8.3 《创金合信首农 REIT 上交所上市， 发行市场保持活跃—行业周报》 -2025.7.27 | | | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 全国首单产业园持有型 ABS 落地，发行市场保持活跃 2025 年第 33 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 853.96，同比上涨 6.24%，环比下 跌 1.62%；中证 REITs 全收益指数 1 ...