综合 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 综合 沪深300 相关研究报告 《谷歌 Gemini3 增益生态，存储有望 持续高景气—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《AI 需求持续验证，提升算力需求可 预见性—行业周报》-2025.11.23 《AI 需求可预见性愈发清晰，关注 Robotaxi 产 业 机 会 — 行业周报》 -2025.11.16 存储依然高景气，H200 有望获批对华出口 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 张可（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790523070001 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | 电子：H200 有望获批对华出口，长期看好国产替代 2025 年 12 月 9 日美国总统特朗普宣布在确保美 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous release of BEST orders and the long-term development prospects of the controlled nuclear fusion sector, with significant projects expected to commence soon [7][21] - The signing of Japan's first fusion power purchase agreement by Helical Fusion with Aoki Super marks a significant milestone in the industry [6][18] - The report emphasizes the steady progress in the research and construction of controlled nuclear fusion devices, with key components expected to see ongoing demand [21][22] Summary by Sections Sector Review - All segments within the controlled nuclear fusion sector experienced price increases, with notable stock performances including Aikoseibo (+34.3%), Yongding Co. (+27.8%), and Hahan Huaton (+22.2%) [5][14] - The overall sector saw a positive trend, with all sub-segments rising, particularly magnets (+15.4%), power assemblies (+9.9%), and upstream metal materials (+8.0%) [16][18] Industry Dynamics - Helical Fusion announced the signing of Japan's first fusion energy power purchase agreement, aiming to establish a commercially viable fusion demonstration plant by the 2030s [6][18] - Recent procurement updates indicate ongoing demand for key components, with significant projects awarded, including a total of approximately 9.32 billion yuan for various projects by the China Engineering Physics Research Institute [19][20] Weekly Perspective - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term prospects of the sector, driven by the expected release of core component orders and advancements in technology [21][22] - Beneficiary stocks identified include those involved in magnets, vacuum chambers, power assemblies, and other critical components [22][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key policy goal in 2026 is likely price recovery, similar to the situation in 2016 when the importance of GDP growth rate decreased and price recovery was crucial [3][4]. - In 2026, there are two possibilities for the real - estate market. One is a market - based bottoming of housing prices after they fall back to near 2015 levels, and the other is a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. - In 2026, price recovery is highly likely. Depending on the housing price situation, there are three scenarios for the market, all involving rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Goals - Price recovery is likely an important policy goal in 2026, as indicated by multiple mentions of price - related content in the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference addressed issues such as supply - demand imbalance, expansion of domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policies, competition regulation, and environmental protection [3]. - The logic in 2026 may be similar to that in 2016, with a decline in the importance of GDP growth rate and price recovery being the key. In 2016, the actual GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to 2015, while the nominal GDP growth rate increased by over 1%, and price recovery improved corporate profits and the stock market [4]. Policy Measures - The policy focus has shifted from reversing the downward price trend (2022 - 2024.9) to maintaining price stability (2025.12). The policy emphasizes maintaining overall policy intensity and making decisions based on the situation to hedge against downward pressure [5]. - Specific measures include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt, and spending; using new policy - based financial tools; and the option of flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which are not mandatory and depend on external shocks [5]. Real - Estate - The government's approach to real - estate risk has two stages: moral risk and systemic risk. Currently, the policy is at the moral risk stage, but may shift if housing prices continue to fall [6]. - In 2026, there are two possible scenarios for the real - estate market: a market - based bottoming of housing prices after falling back to near 2015 levels, or a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. Key Variables in 2026 - There is a high probability of price recovery in 2026, which will lead to three market scenarios: price recovery with falling housing prices, price recovery with market - based bottoming of housing prices, and price recovery with policy - based bottoming of housing prices, all resulting in rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7].

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In November, the social financing scale increased by 24,885 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 20,191 billion yuan and significantly higher than the previous value of 8,161 billion yuan[3] - The growth of RMB loans was 3,900 billion yuan, below the expected 5,043 billion yuan and higher than the previous value of 2,200 billion yuan[3] - Corporate loans showed marginal recovery with an increase of 6,100 billion yuan, which is 3,600 billion yuan more than the same month last year[3] Group 2: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - Government bond financing in November reached 12,041 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,048 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 7,189 billion yuan[3] - The issuance of special bonds was 4,922 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2,048 billion yuan, indicating strong government support for social financing[3] - The net financing of general government bonds reached 6,108 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 4,563 billion yuan month-on-month[3] Group 3: Household and Corporate Loan Trends - Household loans decreased by 2,063 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year reduction of 4,763 billion yuan, but showed improvement compared to the previous month[3] - The short-term loans for households decreased by 1,788 billion yuan year-on-year, but the consumer loan data showed marginal improvement due to seasonal factors[3] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 1,000 billion yuan, indicating a shift from negative to positive growth year-on-year[3] Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9%, while M2 growth rate decreased to 8%[4] - Both household and corporate deposits continued to show year-on-year declines, with reductions of 1,200 billion yuan and 947 billion yuan respectively[4] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 1,900 billion yuan year-on-year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending beyond seasonal expectations[4]

伐谋-中小盘信息更新 铁流股份（603926.SH） 设立子公司全面进军具身智能，深度合作哈特研究院 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/12/12 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.99 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 19.11/7.72 | | 总市值(亿元) | 37.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36.91 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.31 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 125.81 | 中小盘研究团队 哈特研究院在机器人环境感知、智能控制等领域拥有扎实的学术底蕴与前沿的科 研能力，不仅承接过多项国家级重点研发计划项目，更构建了国家级博士后工作 站、国家工业机器人检验检测中心等高端科研平台。 公司具备领先的精密加工能力，账上现金充裕有望通过并购整合先进产业 公司主业以离合器为主，下游覆盖国内部分整车厂，产能规模及市场份额均处于 国内领先地位。2018 年通过收购德国 Geiger 进入高精密零部件领域，在新能源 车电机轴等方面具备领先的技术工艺。公司历史上通过多次并购实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company maintains strategic determination, with pressure being released in an orderly manner. The core product, Guojiao, has kept its price relatively stable without pursuing excessively high growth, resulting in a relatively stable market order. Due to weak consumer demand, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 13.04 billion (-9.0%), 13.30 billion (-11.9%), and 13.94 billion (-13.0%) respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -3.2%, +2.0%, and +4.8%. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the first three quarters showed a sequential decline: +2% in Q1, -8% in Q2, and -10% in Q3, indicating a gradual release of pressure on the financial statements without drastic fluctuations [4] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.398 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8% [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 87% for the forecast period [10] Market Conditions - The worst period for white liquor demand may have passed, with marginal improvements becoming evident. Short-term demand has been negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions and unexpected events, but fiscal stimulus policies are expected to enhance economic activity, leading to a slowdown in the decline of white liquor demand [5][6] - The market order for the company remains good, with stable pricing for Guojiao and acceptable profitability for distributors, attributed to the implementation of a strict logistics system since 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 respectively, indicating a gradual decrease in valuation multiples [8][10] - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is 44.4%, with a slight increase to 45.1% in 2026 and 45.9% in 2027 [11]

- The commercial aerospace index (8841877.WI) has increased by 46.52% since April 7, 2025, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index during the same period, and has risen by 9.35% in December 2025 alone, attracting significant market attention [3][13][14] - Public fund holdings in the commercial aerospace sector have shown an upward trend throughout 2025, based on real-time calculations using public market data such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities [4][16][18] - ETF fund holdings in the commercial aerospace sector have recently declined, with the total scale of public ETF funds exceeding 5.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting the growing importance of index investment products in the market [4][17][24] - Margin financing balances in the commercial aerospace sector have risen rapidly recently, indicating increased investor optimism about the market outlook [4][20][22] - Institutional research activities in 2025 have been most frequent for companies such as Sichuan Electronics, Chaojie Shares, and Sray New Materials [5][23][26] - Snowball platform influencers have shown the highest interest in companies like Aerospace Development, Aerospace Power, and Shanghai Hanxun since November 20, 2025 [5][27][28] - Main funds have flowed most significantly into companies such as Feilihua, Aerospace Power, and Longxi Shares since November 20, 2025, with large and ultra-large orders used as proxy variables for main fund activity [5][29][30][32] - Companies such as Yaguang Technology, Aerospace Technology, and Aerospace Development have appeared on the Dragon Tiger List since December 1, 2025, reflecting the most active trading dynamics in the market [5][33][34] - High-frequency shareholder data indicates significant increases in shareholder numbers for companies like Feilihua, Zhimingda, and Aerospace Technology, suggesting potential risks for subsequent stock price movements [5][35][36][38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the upcoming game "九牧之野" (Nine Warriors) is expected to drive significant revenue growth due to its innovative gameplay and strong player interest, with a public test scheduled for December 18, 2025 [4][12] - The company anticipates substantial increases in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, projecting net profits of 16.32 billion, 19.28 billion, and 23.12 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 22.65, 26.77, and 32.10 yuan [4][48] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to recover from 3.696 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.855 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.4% [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 87.9% in 2024 to 93.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [6] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 25.6% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, showcasing operational efficiency [6] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.3 in 2024 to 19.9 in 2025, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [6] Game Development Insights - "九牧之野" is designed to cater to a broad audience with its 三国 (Three Kingdoms) theme and innovative SLG+RTS gameplay, which combines strategic planning with real-time combat [5][12] - The game aims to reduce player fatigue and spending through mechanisms like "前 200 抽橙卡不重复" (first 200 draws guarantee no duplicates), which is expected to enhance player retention and engagement [5][24] - The report highlights the game's strong pre-launch performance, with over 100,000 pre-registrations within a short period, indicating positive market reception [4][37] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to compete effectively in the SLG market, with "九牧之野" expected to join the ranks of top-performing games like "万国觉醒" (Rise of Kingdoms) and "三国志·战略版" (Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition) [45][46] - The report notes that the game's innovative features and strong marketing strategies, including partnerships with popular streamers, are likely to drive its success upon launch [37][43]

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a tolerance for actual GDP growth rates, focusing on technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, with nominal GDP growth expected to improve[1] - The economic target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with actual performance likely closer to the upper limit[2] Policy Direction - Emphasis on "quality" improvement over mere growth, with a focus on technological advancements and balanced supply-demand structures[2] - Anticipated price increases and improved corporate profits due to supply-demand structure optimization, benefiting industries related to reducing "involution" competition[2] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4%, with total local special bond issuance projected at approximately 4.4 to 4.5 trillion yuan[4] - The broad fiscal deficit rate is estimated to be around 8.1% for 2026, indicating no significant increase in fiscal strength[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will likely remain moderately loose, with potential for rate cuts, although the space for such actions is limited[5] - The focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing inflation, with flexible use of monetary tools to support demand and innovation[5] Technological Focus - The conference highlights the urgency of technological breakthroughs, particularly in AI and emerging industries, to foster new growth drivers[6] - Plans to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[6]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [10] - The Fed's internal divisions have become more pronounced, with differing opinions on future rate cuts, indicating limited room for further reductions in 2026 [12][11] - Market risk appetite has slightly improved following the Fed's announcement, with notable increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [13] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is increasingly recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with government support highlighted in recent work reports [24][25] - Low Earth orbit resources are becoming a competitive focus, with significant advancements in satellite constellations, particularly by SpaceX [26] - The commercial aerospace ecosystem in China is developing, emphasizing cost reduction and efficiency as key drivers for scaling [27] - Investment opportunities are identified in the commercial aerospace sector, with specific companies recommended for their potential benefits from industry growth [28] Group 3: Company Analysis - Wuliangye - Wuliangye's core product price has decreased from 930 to around 800 yuan, raising concerns about sustainability due to supply-demand imbalances [31] - The company has adjusted its supply strategy in response to market conditions, leading to a significant revenue decline in Q3 [32] - Despite short-term challenges, the brand's strong consumer base and strategic adjustments are expected to stabilize prices in the future [35]