2025 年 09 月 15 日 开源晨会 0915 其 他 研 究 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.955 | | 房地产 | 1.507 | | 钢铁 | 1.409 | | 电子 | 1.158 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.961 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.129 | | 综合 | -1.948 | | 美容护理 | -1.522 | | 银行 | -1.517 | | 非银金融 | -1.462 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 观点精粹 | | --- | | 总量视角 | | 【宏观经济】8 月金融数据背后的基数和结构性效应——宏观经济点评-20250913 | | 【宏观经济】美联储或将开启连续降息——美国 8 月 CPI 点评-20250912 | | 【策略】从纺锤策略看港股、创业板的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic and international travel bookings ahead of the National Day holiday, with domestic flight bookings up approximately 25% year-on-year [15] - The second-hand toy market is experiencing rapid growth, with transaction volumes on platforms like Xianyu increasing over 300% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [25] - The report emphasizes the shift towards fresh and healthy dining options in the Chinese restaurant sector, particularly in response to controversies surrounding pre-prepared meals [31] - The education sector is seeing favorable policy changes, with many companies in the higher education space showing strong profit growth and high dividend yields [35] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - The report notes a surge in travel bookings for the upcoming holiday, with a 25% increase in domestic flight bookings and a 15% increase in international bookings [15][16] - The revival of direct flights between China and Cambodia has led to a 48% increase in Chinese tourists visiting Cambodia in the first seven months of 2025 [16] Toy Market - The second-hand toy market is rapidly expanding, with Xianyu reporting over 300% growth in order volume and GMV in Q2 2025 [25][26] - New domestic IPs are gaining popularity, with significant rankings improvements for local designs compared to international counterparts [28] Restaurant Industry - The pre-prepared meal sector is facing scrutiny, leading to a decline in growth rates, while the market for cooking robots is expected to grow significantly, reaching over 110 billion yuan by 2030 [31][32] - The report identifies "Xiaocaiyuan," a fresh-cooked Chinese restaurant chain, as a key beneficiary of the trend towards healthier dining options [34] Education Sector - The higher education sector is benefiting from favorable policies, with many companies reporting substantial profit increases and attractive dividend yields [35][39] - The report highlights that several education companies have seen their net profits rebound significantly in FY2025H1 [37] Local Life Services - The report discusses the growth of instant retail services, with Taobao's daily active users reaching 419 million, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [41] - Alibaba's Gaode Map has launched a new ranking system to enhance offline consumer engagement, aiming to drive foot traffic to local businesses [45][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking," which aims to reconstruct the trust framework in offline services through real navigation and travel behavior data [23][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2396.85 points, up 0.85% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.52% [12][20] - Among retail sub-sectors, the supermarket sector had the highest weekly increase of 4.78%, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 35.68% [14][18] Industry Dynamics - The launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" is positioned as a significant step for Alibaba to transition from a navigation platform to a comprehensive local service platform, enhancing user experience and trust [23][27] - The ranking system incorporates real user behavior and credit filtering to provide authentic feedback, potentially disrupting the existing "to-store" business landscape dominated by Meituan and Dianping [27][29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated gold and jewelry brands with deep consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][31] - Investment Theme 2: Highlight retail enterprises that adapt to trends and actively explore changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][29] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasize high-quality domestic beauty brands with differentiated capabilities, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][30] Company Performance Highlights - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [38][39] - Chaohongji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [41][42] - Maogeping reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 31.3% increase, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [31][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The low-altitude economy is gaining momentum with significant policy support and market developments, including the issuance of the first overseas pilot license for a manned aircraft by Xiaopeng Huaitian and a procurement agreement for 350 eVTOLs with Autocraft [17][25] - The average stock performance in the low-altitude economy sector increased by 2.3% from September 8 to September 12, with notable gains from companies like Wolong Electric Drive (+19.9%) and Changyuan Donggu (+18.4%) [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - On September 6, Wenchang City released a draft for the low-altitude economy industry development plan, focusing on aerospace equipment and general aviation, aiming to create a composite industry system integrating low-altitude economy, aerospace, and cultural tourism [22] - Sichuan Province announced a smart agriculture plan on September 9, targeting the establishment of 20 agricultural low-altitude demonstration sites by 2025 and 100 by 2028, with a goal of having over 15,000 agricultural drones [23] Individual Company Developments - Xiaopeng Huaitian's "Land Aircraft" received the first overseas pilot license for a Chinese enterprise, marking a breakthrough in the Middle East market for eVTOLs [25] - Ping An Property & Casualty disclosed that it has insured over 150,000 drones, providing risk coverage exceeding 90 billion yuan, and has established a new risk research institute for the low-altitude economy [26] - Chengdu Iron Tower proposed the creation of a "three-network" system for the low-altitude economy, covering eight application scenarios, leveraging its extensive site resources [27]

电力设备 电力设备 2025 年 09 月 14 日 固态电池行业周报（第十四期）：先导智能干法设备 成功交付降本超 15%，恩捷股份 10 吨级的固态电解 质产线已投产 ——行业周报 殷晟路（分析师） 电力设备 沪深300 yinshenglu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080001 先导智能干法设备成功交付降本超 15%，恩捷股份 10 吨级的固态电解质产线 已投产 （1）材料：9 月 11 日，恩捷股份在接受机构调研时表示，在全固态电池材料布 局方面，高纯硫化锂产品已完成小试吨级年产能建设和运行，其中硫化锂中试线 已经搭建完成，10 吨级的固态电解质产线已经投产，具备出货能力，公司将继 续投入研发，积极开拓市场，加深与客户的合作和技术交流，推动行业技术发展。 （2）设备：9 月 10 日，海目星在投资者互动平台表示，在固态电池设备领域， 公司已成功打通锂金属固态电池量产的全线工艺环节，并已经获得 2GWh 固态 电池价值 4 亿元量产设备订单，这也是行业内首个高能量锂金属固态电池设备的 可量产商用订单。（3）下游：近日，奔驰 EQS 搭载固态电池完成德国至瑞典 1205 公里测试，剩余 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month, while the second-hand housing transaction area has shown a year-on-year increase [4][6] - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process [4][6] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need for state-owned enterprises to adapt to new urban development stages and implement urban renewal actions [5][14] Summary by Sections Sales Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 68 major cities was 1.72 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 1% [6][32] - Cumulatively, from the beginning of the year, the transaction area in these cities reached 84.08 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [6][32] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 1.85 million square meters, showing a year-on-year growth of 2% [32] Investment Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the planned land area launched in 100 major cities was 31.01 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15% [38] - The transaction premium rate was 4.4%, with first-tier cities seeing a 71% increase in planned land area transactions year-on-year [38] Financing Sector - In the 37th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 4.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34% and a month-on-month decrease of 44% [45] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds was 288.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [45] Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 5.98% in the week of September 8-12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.38% [51][53] - The real estate sector ranked second among 28 sectors in terms of performance during this period [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The green transformation accelerates the upgrade of the supply structure in the building materials industry, with a focus on innovative measures to promote the industry's shift towards green and intelligent development [4] - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies, such as the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Promotion of Green Building Materials Industry" in Hubei Province, which aims to reshape the industrial structure [4] - Key recommended companies include: Sanke Tree (channel penetration, retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, operational structure optimization), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, high retail business proportion), and Jianlang Hardware [4] - Beneficiary stocks in the cement sector include: Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement, with a focus on energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives [4] Market Performance - The building materials index rose by 2.45% in the week from September 8 to September 12, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points [5][14] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index increased by 15.83%, while the building materials index rose by 21.65%, indicating a 5.83 percentage point outperformance [5][14] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 43.14%, while the building materials index rose by 52.13%, showing a 9.00 percentage point outperformance [5][14] Cement Sector - As of September 12, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 275.03 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.01% month-on-month [27] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 62.59%, down by 0.79 percentage points [28] - Regional price variations were noted, with Northeast prices decreasing by 2.17% and North China prices increasing by 2.22% [27][31] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of September 12 was 1202.33 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.01% [78] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.86%, with a total of 55 million weight boxes [80] - The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 125.00 yuan/weight box [84] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the building materials sector is 29.36 times, ranking it 15th from the bottom among all A-share industries [23] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.34 times, ranking it 8th from the bottom among all A-share industries [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices have rebounded at the long-term contract benchmark of 675 CNY/ton, with a stable layout in the coal sector [1][13] - The report highlights that the current prices for thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [4][13] - The report emphasizes the dual logic of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends in coal stocks, suggesting that the current low holdings in coal provide a good opportunity for investment [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to rebound to the long-term contract price, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY [4][13] - The report predicts that the thermal coal price will reach the third target price of approximately 750 CNY in 2025, with a potential peak at around 860 CNY [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Energy and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points [8][28] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.17, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market, while the PB ratio is 1.23 [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the distribution channels are experiencing a Matthew effect, which may intensify due to the recent fee reduction policies [9] - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is expected to outperform the overall market, driven by strong performance in fund sales channels [9] - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration in the distribution channels, with top institutions maintaining stable rankings while showing differentiation in performance across active equity, stock index, and bond fund sales [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Distribution Channel Performance - The top 100 distribution institutions' equity and non-cash holdings increased to 51.4 trillion and 102 trillion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 6% and 7% year-to-date [4] - The market share of banks in non-cash and equity categories has decreased, while the share of third-party and brokerage firms has increased [4][5] - The report notes that the market concentration (CR5) for equity and non-cash funds has risen to 44.2% and 41.3% respectively [5][9] Fund Performance - As of July 2025, the total AUM for equity and non-cash funds reached 87.5 trillion and 204.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-to-date increase of 9.9% and 6.5% [24] - The report indicates that the net redemption trend for active equity funds has eased, with a 12% increase in unit net value for active equity funds compared to an 8% increase for stock ETFs [5][24] Key Institutions - Ant Group, China Merchants Bank, and retail brokers are noted for their high growth rates in fund sales, with Ant Group's equity AUM reaching 8.229 trillion yuan, a 11% increase [7][12] - China Merchants Bank's equity AUM increased by 20% to 4.920 trillion yuan, driven by successful initiatives [6][12] - The report highlights the performance of top brokerage firms, with CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan showing significant growth in equity AUM [8][12] Regulatory Impact - The report discusses the recent regulatory changes aimed at restructuring the competitive landscape of fund distribution, particularly affecting banks and brokerages that rely on front-end fees [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of ten key industries in the deep space economy, including deep space resource development, deep space internet, deep space energy, deep space biology, deep space transportation, deep space intelligence, deep space construction, deep space tourism, deep space security, and deep space culture [2][12][16] - The total market capitalization of aerospace and military-related companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 75.882 billion yuan as of September 12, 2025, with 19 companies in this sector [19][21] - Companies such as Xingtum Control (920116.BJ), Fujida (835640.BJ), and Chuangyuan Xinke (831961.BJ) are identified as high-growth targets within the aerospace sector, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth [20][29][31] Group 2 - The report indicates that the average weekly decline for five major industries, including high-end equipment, information technology, chemical new materials, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biology, was recorded at -4.59%, -3.82%, -3.15%, -3.25%, and -3.60% respectively [3][37] - The median price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these industries have also decreased, with high-end equipment at 44.8X, information technology at 80.5X, chemical new materials at 45.7X, consumer services at 61.0X, and pharmaceutical biology at 42.2X [3][41][47] Group 3 - In the technology sector, the median PE ratio for 154 companies decreased from 54.9X to 53.5X, with an overall market capitalization decline from 538.565 billion yuan to 522.836 billion yuan [4][52] - Notable companies in the technology sector include Chicheng Co. (+23.44%), Shuguang Digital Creation (+18.81%), and Shunyu Precision Engineering (+8.07%), which experienced significant stock price increases [4][56] Group 4 - Fujida (835640.BJ) reported a total revenue of 408 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.86%, with a net profit increase of 10.50% [29][30] - Chuangyuan Xinke (831961.BJ) achieved a revenue of 111 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 18.44% increase, and a remarkable net profit growth of 354.24% [31][35] - Xingtum Control (920116.BJ) reported a revenue of 99 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.90% and a net profit increase of 24.26% [24][26]