证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com HPP 设备和 HPP 果汁市场发展前景向好，关注北交所相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十三期（20250720） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年亚太地区 HPP 设备规模预计年增长率达 25%，中国有望开启国产替代。HPP（超高 压非热灭菌技术）是一项通过物理高压而非高温进行杀菌的前沿技术，能较大限度保留食品 的营养与风味。HPP 技术可应用于多个领域，如果汁饮料、肉制品、水产品、乳制品等。国 内 HPP 设备设计与生产的成熟程度以及厂家运用设备进行冷杀菌的成熟程度均与国外存在一 定差距。根据利通科技官网，2025 年亚太地区 HPP 设备规模预计约为 18 亿美元，年增长 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector is experiencing a narrow fluctuation in gold prices while silver continues to rise. Over the past two weeks, London spot gold increased by 0.70% to $3355.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price slightly decreased by 0.01% to 777.02 yuan per gram. In contrast, London spot silver rose by 3.75% to $38.27 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 3.97% to 9273 yuan per kilogram [6][12] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to the volatility in tariff policies and interest rate cut expectations. Key factors include potential tariffs on imports announced by President Trump, the possibility of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, and the opening of the $9 trillion U.S. pension market to alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals [6][7] - In the medium term, the combination of "interest rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases, supported by the recent economic data from the U.S. and the ongoing tariff negotiations [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, London spot gold rose by 0.70% to $3355.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price fell by 0.01% to 777.02 yuan per gram. London spot silver increased by 3.75% to $38.27 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price rose by 3.97% to 9273 yuan per kilogram [11][12] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. job market and economic performance show resilience, with the current interest rate cut cycle potentially extended due to employment strength and inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve has significant policy space, which increases the window for bullish gold positions [7][23] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report indicates changes in trading volumes and positions, with specific data on COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver holdings, reflecting market dynamics [41][45] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report notes that the domestic gold price difference is 5.69 yuan per gram, a decrease of 4.13 yuan from two weeks ago, while the silver price difference is 440.20 yuan per kilogram, down by 40.03 yuan [59] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the last week, the international gold basis (spot-futures) was -0.40 USD per ounce, an increase of 3.70 USD from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis was -3.65 yuan per gram, up by 1.84 yuan [67]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry is experiencing a slight increase in breeding stock in Q2, with high profitability and a trend towards "de-involution" [2] - The latest pig price is 14.39 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight of 128.83 kg, indicating a potential for price stability despite slight fluctuations [3][13] - The Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring shows a 0.8% decrease in the national inventory of large pigs in June, suggesting a reduction in pig slaughter in July and August [3][47] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Breeding stock has slightly increased, with a national breeding sow inventory of 40.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [4][13] - The industry has maintained profitability for 14 consecutive months, with 11 out of 14 listed companies forecasting increased performance for the first half of 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing capacity regulation policies to stabilize pig prices, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining price stability [4][13] - Recommended companies include Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff Group, focusing on cost-leading enterprises with strong profit certainty for 2025 [4] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 1.9 CNY/bird, up 27% month-on-month but down 40% year-on-year; the price of broiler chickens is 3.3 CNY/kg, up 3.8% month-on-month [5][14] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [5][14] - Key investment focuses include high-return enterprises with sustainable ROE improvements, such as Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [5][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown positive performance, with significant year-on-year increases for several species [6][15] - Recommended company is Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved management effectiveness [6][15] 4. Pet Industry - The uncertainty of tariffs and export fluctuations in Q2 have impacted the pet sector, but long-term effects are expected to be limited due to strong brand positioning and overseas factory layouts [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - There is significant uncertainty regarding soybean imports in Q4, with August 1 being a critical date for monitoring US-China trade negotiations [8][18] - Natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend due to favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4059, up 1.09% from the previous week, while the Agricultural Index closed at 2755, down 0.14% [19][21] - The livestock sector index is at 3071, indicating a stable performance amidst market fluctuations [19][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The release of the restricted stock incentive plan aims to bind core talent and reflects confidence in performance growth. The revenue from simulation testing machines is steadily increasing, and the company is awaiting positive developments regarding SoC testing machines [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the semiconductor industry, with strong demand from AI, new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and the Internet of Things, leading to a robust business development momentum [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 691 million - 2024: 905 million (31.05% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1,167 million (28.96% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,483 million (27.04% YoY growth) - 2027E: 1,855 million (25.04% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 252 million - 2024: 334 million (32.69% YoY growth) - 2025E: 430 million (28.74% YoY growth) - 2026E: 564 million (31.11% YoY growth) - 2027E: 721 million (27.84% YoY growth) [8] - The company’s R&D investment for 2024 is projected to be 1.72 billion, accounting for 19.04% of revenue, with a continued increase in R&D spending expected in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are: - 2025E: 42.18 - 2026E: 32.17 - 2027E: 25.17 [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.35% in 2024 to 15.17% in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][9]. Core Views - The company's main business is expected to stabilize and recover, with innovative anti-cancer drugs showing improved efficacy and reduced toxicity, suggesting that the platform may have been validated [4][11]. - The impact of the national procurement on the core product, Leflunomide, is gradually diminishing, and with new products being launched, the company's performance is anticipated to return to a growth trajectory [6][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2001, specializes in the research, production, and sales of chemical raw materials, chemical preparations, pharmaceutical excipients, and specialty intermediates. It was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2018 [16]. - The company has a strong position in cardiovascular preparations, oral cephalosporin raw materials, alpha-keto acid raw materials, inhalation anesthetics, and androgen hormone intermediates [16]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5% year-on-year. The decline is primarily attributed to the impact of Leflunomide's inclusion in national procurement [6][24]. - The company expects a rebound in revenue, projecting 1.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7% [8]. Product Development and Innovation - The introduction of ALK-N001, an innovative anti-cancer drug, is based on the TMEA platform, which has shown promising clinical results. The first drug from this platform, Legobit, has completed Phase III trials, demonstrating superior efficacy and safety compared to existing chemotherapy options [7][11]. - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as plant sterols and animal health, which are expected to become new growth drivers [6][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 132 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 216 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 64%, 29%, and 27% [8][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 69, 54, and 42 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, highlighting its multi-layered business layout and organizational upgrades as catalysts for growth [3][7][9]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the optical sector for over 20 years, with diversified layouts contributing to long-term growth momentum. It has established three growth curves: consumer electronics, automotive optics, and AR/VR applications, expanding its product ecosystem from components to modules and solutions [4][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.278 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.67%, and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 71.57%, marking a historical high [4][35]. - The strategic transformation phase is underway, with organizational upgrades aimed at enhancing collaboration with major clients and optimizing operational efficiency [6][21]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company has built a multi-layered business structure focusing on consumer electronics, automotive optics, and AR/VR, with a commitment to becoming a leading one-stop optical solution provider globally [19][24]. - The company has successfully transitioned through various stages of development, from indirect supply to direct supply and now to an ODM model, enhancing its position in the supply chain of major clients [20][21]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 1.248 billion yuan, 1.526 billion yuan, and 1.750 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 21.20%, 22.27%, and 14.67% [7][9]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.278 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.67% [8][35]. Product Development - The company is focusing on the AR/VR optical applications, with AR waveguide technology being a core strategic initiative, expected to drive future growth [5][64]. - The automotive electronics segment, particularly the AR-HUD product, has gained significant market share domestically and is set for expansion into overseas markets [5][11]. Market Position - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients, enhancing its product capabilities and technical strength, which are crucial for its growth trajectory [6][21]. - The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in North America and Europe, to enhance its market influence [44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media internet industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The official release and open-sourcing of Kimi K2 is expected to drive significant advancements in domestic large models and AI applications, particularly in sectors such as gaming, education, video, e-commerce, toys, and marketing [4][5] - The AI application landscape is evolving, with notable developments in AI-driven e-commerce live streaming, which has shown a GMV exceeding 55 million yuan, indicating a breakthrough in operational efficiency [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI-generated video technology and the active engagement of platforms in enhancing short video ecosystems, suggesting a focus on companies involved in short video production and marketing [7][8] Summary by Sections AI Applications - Kimi K2, a foundational model with 1 trillion total parameters and 32 billion active parameters, demonstrates superior capabilities in coding, tool usage, and mathematical reasoning, indicating a leap in AI application potential [5] - The report highlights the integration of AI in e-commerce live streaming, which is expected to lower operational costs and extend live streaming durations, thus improving efficiency [6] Gaming Sector - The summer gaming season is anticipated to see new product launches and significant updates to existing titles, with a focus on the performance of leading gaming companies in AI-enhanced gaming experiences [8] Internet Sector - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the internet sector, particularly in food delivery and instant retail, suggesting a shift towards more sustainable business practices and innovation rather than price competition [9] Film and Television - The summer film season is projected to boost box office revenues, with a focus on key film producers and cinema ticketing companies [10] - The report notes the strong performance of specific films and the overall market dynamics, indicating a healthy recovery in the film industry [41] Market Overview - The report provides a market recap, noting the performance of major indices and the media sector's ranking among various industries during the specified period [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified efforts to combat "involution," leading to a more orderly terminal price competition. Since May 2025, various government departments have indicated a commitment to regulate "involution-style" competition in the automotive sector, with measures including cost investigations and price monitoring [3][6] - The impact of "involution" is expected to be more adverse for mid-to-low-end manufacturers, while manufacturers that can create user demand through technology and branding are likely to benefit [3][15] - The anticipated reduction in subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026 may put pressure on actual sales growth, despite short-term support from consumer expectations of recovering discounts and potential tax incentives [3][16] Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Involution Measures - The core reason for the current round of involution in the automotive industry is weak demand, triggered by price cuts from major players like BYD. The market is entering a phase of stock competition, with many manufacturers resorting to price cuts to gain market share [6][7] - Key measures to combat involution include resisting low-price competition, enhancing product quality checks, advocating for the orderly exit of outdated capacities, and standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days [7][10] Impact on Price Competition - The measures taken are expected to lead to a more orderly terminal price competition, with significant promotional policies being retracted and efforts to stabilize dealer inventories and accelerate rebate payments [10][12] - Several manufacturers have committed to paying dealers within 60 days, which is expected to alleviate pressure on dealer inventories and stabilize terminal prices [11][13] Sales Outlook - The automotive industry is projected to face challenges in sales growth due to the anticipated reduction in NEV purchase tax subsidies in 2026. The expected decrease in subsidies may lead to a decline in sales growth rates, particularly for low-price segment manufacturers [16][17] - Historical data suggests that previous tax reduction policies have led to significant sales increases, indicating that the upcoming subsidy changes could similarly impact sales dynamics [20][21]