Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Concerns - The Ministry of Finance has reinstated value-added tax on interest income from government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds since August 8, 2025, with a tax rate of 3%[11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised public fund sales fee management regulations, imposing punitive redemption fees of at least 1.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5% for different redemption periods[1] Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - As of June 2025, the total scale of bond funds is approximately CNY 11.15 trillion, with individual and institutional investors holding 17% and 81% respectively, translating to CNY 1.88 trillion and CNY 8.99 trillion[2] - If the new redemption fee regulations are implemented, there is a potential for significant capital outflow from public bond funds, which could amplify overall market volatility[1] Group 3: Institutional Responses - Bank wealth management products held CNY 1.38 trillion in public bond funds, accounting for 4.2% of their total holdings as of June 2025[3] - Insurance companies are estimated to hold around CNY 900 billion in public bond funds, maintaining a stable allocation of approximately 2.4%[4] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical cases show that bond fund outflows can be substantial; for instance, from September 2022 to January 2023, bond fund sizes dropped from CNY 5.19 trillion to CNY 4.01 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.18 trillion[9] - Current market conditions suggest that if bond funds experience significant redemptions, the yield on 10-year government bonds could peak between 1.90% and 1.95%[10]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 美联储 9 月降息落地，本周全球市场分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美国降息落地，全球市场走势分 化。受到美联储降息 25bp 的短期提振，本周美股市场上涨。另 一方面，美联储降息侧面反映美国经济基本面压力偏大。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率进一步上升至 37.1；费城半导体指数 市盈率快速上升至 49.2，再次临近 50；纳斯达克指数的市盈率 上升至 42.9。由于美股科技股估值压力较大，叠加美国关税、 贸易政策带来的影响，叠加权重股英伟达阶段较为疲软，美股 科技股中期仍然容易出现调整；美股科技指数仍然中期维度容 易出现压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率进一步上升至 39.95，进 一步接近于 40 的高位区间，仅次于互联网泡沫时期的 44.19 的 峰值。由于美国经济基本面问题仍然存在，叠加贸易政策、关 税问题的影响，且美股估值处于偏高阶段，美股中金融、通讯 服务、消费、工业等行业中期维度仍然存在调整的趋势。 ...

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on weekly price and transaction volume changes[3][15] - Last week, the automobile industry showed significant short-term crowding, as identified by deviations exceeding 99% confidence levels in the Mahalanobis distance analysis[16][15]

Market Performance - On September 18, both the stock and bond markets experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3831.66, down 1.15% [1][2] - The trading volume in the stock market reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 763.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a significant sell-off [2] Stock Market Analysis - The stock market showed a high open but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reaching 3899.96 points before facing strong selling pressure [2] - The decline in major indices, except for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, suggests a healthy adjustment rather than a shift to pessimism, as implied by the drop in implied volatility [2] - The technology sector attempted a rebound, with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 0.72%, indicating a preference for technology stocks amidst the broader market decline [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market saw a rise in yields, particularly in the long-end, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds reaching 1.78% and 2.07%, respectively [5][6] - The afternoon sell-off in equities provided a reason for the bond market to restart buying, although investor caution remained evident in pricing [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced a general downturn, with significant declines in glass, coking coal, and pure alkali, which fell by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, respectively [7] - Precious metals also faced selling pressure, with domestic silver and gold dropping by 1.94% and 1.78% [7][8] - The coking coal market showed signs of stabilization due to supply and demand dynamics, with production recovering and inventory levels decreasing [8] Livestock Sector Developments - The livestock sector is undergoing stricter production controls, with recent policies aimed at reducing the breeding sow population, which may improve the long-term supply dynamics [9] - Despite the potential for improved supply conditions, short-term pressures remain due to concentrated market releases [9] Investment Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a phase of profit-taking in various sectors [9] - The focus is expected to shift from policy expectations to real-world validations, with industry logic likely to dominate future market movements [9]

Policy and Industry Trends - The humanoid robot industry is entering a stage driven by both policy and application scenarios, with significant government support and strategic focus on embodied intelligence and smart robotics[1] - Local governments are actively implementing special action plans to accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots, indicating a robust policy environment[14] Market Opportunities - The market for humanoid robots is shifting from concept-driven to industrialization, with long-term investment value emerging in the sector[8] - Key components such as actuators, sensors, and lightweight materials are critical areas of focus, with a notable lack of software-related investment vehicles in the convertible bond market[1] Component Analysis - The core value of humanoid robots is highly concentrated in the components sector, particularly in actuators, dexterous hands, and sensors, which are essential for their functionality[29] - Actuators, including lead screws, reducers, and motors, are expected to contribute nearly half of the overall value in mass production stages, with significant growth potential[32] Investment Highlights - Notable convertible bonds include Yinlun Convertible Bond (Yinlun) and Daotong Convertible Bond (Daotong), which are leading in the exploration of the humanoid robot industry[2] - The Yinlun Convertible Bond focuses on thermal management systems and has established a product system for humanoid robots, while the Daotong Convertible Bond is leveraging AI for inspection robots[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the humanoid robot industry's slower-than-expected industrialization and unexpected changes in industrial policies[4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the semiconductor back-end testing equipment industry, particularly focusing on domestic testing equipment opportunities driven by the AI industry trend [2][3]. Core Insights - Advantest's stock price and performance have reached new highs, benefiting fundamentally from the global AI industry trend. The company has shown significant growth over the past year, three years, and ten years, with respective increases of +131%, +578%, and +5630% [3][11]. - The domestic back-end testing equipment market is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan, with a notable increase in demand for AI chips driving this growth. Companies like Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement Control, and Jinhai Tong have reported impressive revenue growth rates of +40%, +39%, and +89% respectively in Q2 2025 [3][27]. - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the global testing machine market, projecting a market size of $6 billion by 2025, with Advantest holding a significant market share [3][23]. Summary by Sections Advantest's Performance - Advantest's revenue and net profit for Q2 2025 were $1.79 billion and $610 million, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of +90% and +278% [3][20]. - The company's PE-TTM is currently at 46 times, significantly higher than its competitors, indicating a premium valuation due to its dominant position in the SOC and storage testing machine markets [3][16]. Domestic Testing Equipment Market - The domestic back-end testing equipment sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant capital expenditure from downstream packaging and testing companies expected to drive demand [27][32]. - The report estimates that the domestic testing machine market will reach 22.3 billion yuan by 2026, with SOC and storage testing machines accounting for 11.1 billion and 6.7 billion yuan, respectively [48][49]. AI Chip Demand - The demand for testing machines is expected to surge due to the increasing complexity and requirements of AI chips, which necessitate longer testing times and higher performance standards [50][53]. - Major Chinese tech companies are ramping up their capital expenditures, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching 38.6 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to AI development [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic companies such as Changchuan Technology and Huafeng Measurement Control, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI testing machines [3][58][75]. - Changchuan Technology is highlighted as a core player in the SOC testing machine market, with a significant increase in revenue and profit margins expected due to its strong R&D capabilities and product offerings [58][62].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 25BP，重启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%至 4.25% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，维持月度减持美国国债的上限在 50 亿 美元，月度减持抵押贷券(MBS)规模在 350 亿美元。 ► 议息会议声明：就业下行风险正在上升 ► 经济指标预测：上调经济预期、下调失业预期 此次美联储给出的经济指标预期较 2025 年 6 月发生了一些变化： 上调经济增速预期。其中，20 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 18 日，美联储降息 25bp，至 4.0-4.25%。资产表现方面，获利盘一度止盈离场，但多数资产出现 V 型 走势，除贵金属外基本收复此前跌幅。点阵图显示年内继续降息 50bp，基本符合预期。数据预测对明年的通胀 担忧略有升温，同时对增长较 6 月更为乐观。 第一，美联储降息幅度及年内降息节奏基本符合预期。对比会议 FOMC 声明与 7 月的差别，主要是对劳动 力市场措辞调整为"就业增长已经放缓，失业率略有上升，不过仍维持在较低水平"，同时在双重使命方面，提 到"就业下行风险已经增加"。通胀方面，在"通胀某种程度上依然高企"的基础上加入"通胀上升"。此外，删 除了净出口波动对数据产生影响的表述。美联储此次降息 25bp 后，点阵图显示年内的 10 月、12 月两次会议合 计降 50bp（其中一人支持再降息 125bp，可能是新晋理事米兰），与市场预期较为接近。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示将政策重点从通胀转向就业。关于关税传导的表述明显缓和，表示"关税向通胀的 传导已经放慢且变小，对核心 PCE 贡献 0.3-0.4 个百分点"。而对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示，劳动力需求已经 减 ...

Market Performance - The domestic market showed a bullish trend with both stocks and bonds rising, indicating a "slow rise in the broad market with thematic rotation" [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up by 0.37%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.61% to 4551.02 [1][2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.40 trillion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting positive market sentiment [2] Sector Analysis - The AI computing sector is experiencing capital outflow as funds shift towards solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, with the robotics sector leading the gains [4][6] - The technology growth sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would enhance valuation and reduce financing costs [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is also poised to gain from a weaker dollar and increased global demand, particularly benefiting industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc [3] Investment Trends - The report highlights a potential shift in investment focus towards high-growth sectors such as robotics, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as funds rotate from AI computing and semiconductors [6] - The securities sector is seeing inflows, with a net inflow of 8 billion yuan into securities ETFs, indicating strong investor interest [6] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields falling to 1.76% and 2.06% respectively, driven by expectations of central bank bond purchases [7][8] - Recent trading activity indicates that major banks are increasing their net purchases of specific government bonds, suggesting a potential focus for future central bank interventions [8] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is currently in a phase of structural volatility, with the release of new energy consumption standards for polysilicon expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the medium to long term [10][11] - The report notes that while the overall risk in the commodity market is limited due to favorable macro conditions, the upward potential will depend on marginal changes in the fundamentals [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The floating - rate bond market in China entered an expansion cycle again in 2025, but the current stock size is still small. Since June 2025, commercial banks have restarted the issuance of floating - rate bonds, but the scale is small and the liquidity is weak. For investors, the current cost - performance of participating in floating - rate bonds is not high, and the allocation value may be less than that of fixed - rate bonds [2][3][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Domestic Floating - Rate Bond Market Overview - **Definition of Floating - Rate Bonds**: Floating - rate bonds are bonds whose coupon rates are regularly adjusted with the market benchmark interest rate, usually composed of a benchmark interest rate and a fixed spread. The benchmark interest rate is generally linked to DR007, LPR, LIBOR, etc., and the fixed spread is determined at the beginning and remains unchanged subsequently [1][14]. - **Three Expansion Periods of Floating - Rate Bonds**: The domestic floating - rate bond market started in 1995 and has experienced three expansion periods (1995 - 2000, 2003 - 2011, 2014 - 2021), with the scale increasing in each period. From 2022 - 2024, the issuance scale decreased significantly, and in 2025, it entered an expansion cycle again. As of September 12, 2025, the issuance volume reached 26.49 billion yuan [2][15][16]. - **Small Stock Size of Domestic Floating - Rate Bonds**: As of September 12, 2025, the domestic floating - rate bond stock size was 62.16 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.3% of all bond balances. Policy bank bonds are the largest variety, accounting for 80%. The benchmark interest rates are mainly DR007 and LPR, accounting for 49% and 42% respectively [2][26]. 3.2 The Expansion of Commercial Bank Floating - Rate Bonds in 2025 but Weak Liquidity - **Restart of Issuance**: Since June 2025, commercial banks have issued multiple floating - rate bonds with a total issuance scale of 3.89 billion yuan, restarting the issuance after 2013. However, the current scale is small, accounting for only 0.34% of all bank bonds [3][30]. - **Weak Liquidity**: The secondary - market trading activity of commercial bank floating - rate bonds is low. Newly issued floating - rate bonds are more actively traded only in the issuance month, and the trading activity decreases significantly from the next month. Compared with large - bank newly issued fixed - rate commercial financial bonds, the liquidity is significantly weaker [3][32]. 3.3 How to Price Commercial Bank Floating - Rate Bonds? - **Complex Pricing**: Different from fixed - rate bonds priced by YTM, floating - rate bonds have non - fixed coupon rates, and it is difficult to accurately predict future cash flows, so the pricing is more complex. The daily price fluctuation of floating - rate bonds is mainly affected by the current benchmark interest rate and the yield to maturity [4][37]. - **Price Change Rules**: From the perspective of absolute value, when the benchmark interest rate and the yield to maturity change in opposite directions, the change direction of the floating - rate bond value is clear. In practice, the more volatile variable often determines the direction of investment returns. From the perspective of relative value, floating - rate bonds can resist the price callback caused by tightening of the money market or interest rate hikes, but perform worse than fixed - rate bonds during the period of loose money and interest rate cuts [4][41][49]. 3.4 The Current Allocation Value of Commercial Bank Floating - Rate Bonds May Be Less Than That of Fixed - Rate Bonds - **Banks' Motivation for Issuance**: Since the second half of this year, commercial banks have issued a large number of floating - rate bonds, possibly to reduce the cost of their liability side. Affected by multiple factors, the net interest margin of commercial banks has been in a downward channel, and the demand for cost reduction on the liability side remains [7][56]. - **Low Cost - Performance for Investors**: For investors, the cost - performance of participating in floating - rate bonds is not high. On the one hand, the characteristics of floating - rate bonds make them more suitable for short - term trading, and the trading difficulty is large. On the other hand, in the current market environment of expected interest rate cuts, the allocation value of floating - rate bonds may be less than that of fixed - rate bonds [7][8][59].